Geoffrey West: The surprising math of cities and corporations

170,954 views ・ 2011-07-26

TED


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翻译人员: Lili Liang 校对人员: Peng Zhang
00:16
Cities are the crucible of civilization.
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城市是文明的熔炉
00:19
They have been expanding,
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它们一直在扩张
00:21
urbanization has been expanding,
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城市化的扩张速度
00:23
at an exponential rate in the last 200 years
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在过去的200年里变得越来越快
00:25
so that by the second part of this century,
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到了本世纪下半叶
00:28
the planet will be completely dominated
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整个地球都将被城市
00:30
by cities.
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所主宰
00:33
Cities are the origins of global warming,
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城市是全球变暖的源头
00:36
impact on the environment,
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影响着环境
00:38
health, pollution, disease,
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卫生 污染 疾病
00:41
finance,
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金融
00:43
economies, energy --
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经济 能源--
00:46
they're all problems
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这些问题
00:48
that are confronted by having cities.
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都是由城市引起的
00:50
That's where all these problems come from.
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这是所有这些问题的源头
00:52
And the tsunami of problems that we feel we're facing
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我们感觉可持续性方面的问题
00:55
in terms of sustainability questions
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正如海啸般扑面而来
00:57
are actually a reflection
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而这些问题实际上
00:59
of the exponential increase
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是与日俱增的
01:01
in urbanization across the planet.
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全球城市化进程所产生的效应
01:04
Here's some numbers.
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我们来看几个数字
01:06
Two hundred years ago, the United States
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200年前 美国
01:08
was less than a few percent urbanized.
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城市化程度不到百分之几而已
01:10
It's now more than 82 percent.
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而现在则超过了82%
01:12
The planet has crossed the halfway mark a few years ago.
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全球的城市化程度在几年前就超过了百分之五十
01:15
China's building 300 new cities
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中国在将来的20年内
01:17
in the next 20 years.
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建设300座新城市
01:19
Now listen to this:
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请注意
01:21
Every week for the foreseeable future,
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在将来的每一周
01:24
until 2050,
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一直到2050年
01:26
every week more than a million people
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每一周 将有100万人
01:28
are being added to our cities.
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进入我们的城市
01:30
This is going to affect everything.
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这将对一切产生影响
01:32
Everybody in this room, if you stay alive,
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在座的各位 如果你一直活着
01:34
is going to be affected
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你就必定要受到
01:36
by what's happening in cities
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城市化所带来的
01:38
in this extraordinary phenomenon.
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翻天覆地的影响
01:40
However, cities,
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然而 城市
01:43
despite having this negative aspect to them,
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尽管存在负面效应
01:46
are also the solution.
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但城市也是问题解决的出路
01:48
Because cities are the vacuum cleaners and the magnets
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这是因为城市是除尘器和吸铁石
01:52
that have sucked up creative people,
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吸纳了所有创意人才
01:54
creating ideas, innovation,
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创造着思想 革新
01:56
wealth and so on.
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财富等等
01:58
So we have this kind of dual nature.
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我们具有这样的双面性
02:00
And so there's an urgent need
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我们迫切需要运用
02:03
for a scientific theory of cities.
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城市的科学原理
02:07
Now these are my comrades in arms.
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这些是我全副武装的同志们
02:10
This work has been done with an extraordinary group of people,
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这群杰出的人士做了这些工作
02:12
and they've done all the work,
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都是他们的功劳
02:14
and I'm the great bullshitter
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我只会胡吹海侃
02:16
that tries to bring it all together.
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做个总体介绍
02:18
(Laughter)
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(众人笑)
02:20
So here's the problem: This is what we all want.
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这里有个问题 这是我们希望的结果
02:22
The 10 billion people on the planet in 2050
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到了2050年,地球上的10亿人
02:25
want to live in places like this,
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都想生活在这样的地方
02:27
having things like this,
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拥有这些东西
02:29
doing things like this,
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进行这样的活动
02:31
with economies that are growing like this,
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在这样的经济增长情况下
02:34
not realizing that entropy
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而没有意识到
02:36
produces things like this,
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人口过剩会造成这样
02:38
this, this
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这样 这样
02:42
and this.
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和这样的情况
02:44
And the question is:
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问题是
02:46
Is that what Edinburgh and London and New York
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爱丁堡 伦敦和纽约
02:48
are going to look like in 2050,
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到了2050年会变成这样
02:50
or is it going to be this?
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还是这样
02:52
That's the question.
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这是个问题
02:54
I must say, many of the indicators
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我不得不说 许多这样的参数
02:56
look like this is what it's going to look like,
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似乎更可能是它们将来的样子
02:59
but let's talk about it.
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我们来探讨一下
03:02
So my provocative statement
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我敢大胆地说
03:05
is that we desperately need a serious scientific theory of cities.
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我们急需一个严谨的城市科学理论
03:08
And scientific theory means quantifiable --
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科学理论意味着它是可量化的
03:11
relying on underlying generic principles
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依据基本的普遍原理
03:14
that can be made into a predictive framework.
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我们能够推导出一个可预见的结构
03:16
That's the quest.
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这是我们的目标
03:18
Is that conceivable?
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这可能吗
03:20
Are there universal laws?
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有这样的普遍定律吗
03:22
So here's two questions
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每当我思考这个问题
03:24
that I have in my head when I think about this problem.
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两个疑问一直在我脑子里打转
03:26
The first is:
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第一
03:28
Are cities part of biology?
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城市是生物界的一部分吗
03:30
Is London a great big whale?
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伦敦是一只大鲸鱼吗
03:32
Is Edinburgh a horse?
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爱丁堡是一匹马吗
03:34
Is Microsoft a great big anthill?
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微软是一座巨型蚁山吗
03:36
What do we learn from that?
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我们从中能得到什么启发
03:38
We use them metaphorically --
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我们可以使用比喻
03:40
the DNA of a company, the metabolism of a city, and so on --
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一个公司的DNA 一个城市的新陈代谢 等等
03:42
is that just bullshit, metaphorical bullshit,
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这些都是胡扯 乱七八糟的比喻
03:45
or is there serious substance to it?
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还是有严谨的依据
03:48
And if that is the case,
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如果确有依据
03:50
how come that it's very hard to kill a city?
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为什么城市总是生生不息呢
03:52
You could drop an atom bomb on a city,
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你可以扔一个原子弹炸毁一个城市
03:54
and 30 years later it's surviving.
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而30年之后 它依然存在
03:56
Very few cities fail.
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消亡的城市寥寥无几
03:59
All companies die, all companies.
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而所有公司都会关门 无一例外
04:02
And if you have a serious theory, you should be able to predict
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如果你掌握了缜密的原理 你就应该可以预测
04:04
when Google is going to go bust.
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谷歌什么时候关门大吉
04:07
So is that just another version
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这是不是
04:10
of this?
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这个画面的翻版
04:12
Well we understand this very well.
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我们对此非常清楚
04:14
That is, you ask any generic question about this --
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如果你随便问一个常识问题
04:16
how many trees of a given size,
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某已知体积的大树有多少棵
04:18
how many branches of a given size does a tree have,
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一颗体积已知的大树有多少分枝
04:20
how many leaves,
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多少树叶
04:22
what is the energy flowing through each branch,
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每根树枝中流动的能量是什么
04:24
what is the size of the canopy,
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树冠有多大
04:26
what is its growth, what is its mortality?
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它长势如何 寿命多长
04:28
We have a mathematical framework
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我们有一套数学体系
04:30
based on generic universal principles
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建立在普遍原理的基础上
04:33
that can answer those questions.
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它能够解答那些问题
04:35
And the idea is can we do the same for this?
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问题是 它是否适用于城市
04:40
So the route in is recognizing
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首先我们要认识到
04:43
one of the most extraordinary things about life,
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生命最奇妙之处 其中之一
04:45
is that it is scalable,
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就是它是会长大的
04:47
it works over an extraordinary range.
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它能够长到非常之大
04:49
This is just a tiny range actually:
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这只是很小的一个尺度
04:51
It's us mammals;
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这是我们 哺乳动物
04:53
we're one of these.
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我们是其中之一
04:55
The same principles, the same dynamics,
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相同的原理 相同的活动
04:57
the same organization is at work
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相同的组织 在所有这些动物中
04:59
in all of these, including us,
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发挥着作用 我们也包括在内
05:01
and it can scale over a range of 100 million in size.
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它能够长大到一亿个单位
05:04
And that is one of the main reasons
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生命如此周而复始 欣欣向荣
05:07
life is so resilient and robust --
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这就是原因之一
05:09
scalability.
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伸展性
05:11
We're going to discuss that in a moment more.
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我们一会再讨论这个
05:14
But you know, at a local level,
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从我们自身出发
05:16
you scale; everybody in this room is scaled.
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你会长大 在座所有人的身体都长大了
05:18
That's called growth.
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这就是成长
05:20
Here's how you grew.
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你就是这么成长的
05:22
Rat, that's a rat -- could have been you.
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这是一只老鼠 也可以是你
05:24
We're all pretty much the same.
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我们之间非常相似
05:27
And you see, you're very familiar with this.
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你们可以看到 你的情况与之十分相似
05:29
You grow very quickly and then you stop.
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你长得很快 接着停止生长
05:31
And that line there
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上面的那条线
05:33
is a prediction from the same theory,
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是同一理论推导出来的
05:35
based on the same principles,
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所依据的原理
05:37
that describes that forest.
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与描述森林的原理相同
05:39
And here it is for the growth of a rat,
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这显示的是老鼠的生长情况
05:41
and those points on there are data points.
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上面的点是数据点
05:43
This is just the weight versus the age.
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即体重与年龄的比例
05:45
And you see, it stops growing.
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你看 它停止生长了
05:47
Very, very good for biology --
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这对生物界非常有益
05:49
also one of the reasons for its great resilience.
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这也证明了其强大的伸展性
05:51
Very, very bad
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但对我们目前规划中的
05:53
for economies and companies and cities
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经济 公司和城市而而言
05:55
in our present paradigm.
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这是非常糟糕的
05:57
This is what we believe.
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我们就是这么认为的
05:59
This is what our whole economy
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这就是我们的经济
06:01
is thrusting upon us,
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强加给我们的
06:03
particularly illustrated in that left-hand corner:
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左上角的图表凸显了这一点
06:06
hockey sticks.
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冰球棍
06:08
This is a bunch of software companies --
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它显示的是众多软件公司
06:10
and what it is is their revenue versus their age --
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收入与公司建立时间的比例
06:12
all zooming away,
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它们都平步青云
06:14
and everybody making millions and billions of dollars.
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每家公司都大把大把地捞钱
06:16
Okay, so how do we understand this?
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那么 我们如何解读
06:19
So let's first talk about biology.
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我们先来讨论一下生物学
06:22
This is explicitly showing you
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这让你清清楚楚地看到
06:24
how things scale,
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事物的规模是如何增大的
06:26
and this is a truly remarkable graph.
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这幅图表意义非凡
06:28
What is plotted here is metabolic rate --
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上面显示的是新陈代谢率
06:31
how much energy you need per day to stay alive --
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为维持生命你每天需要摄入的能量
06:34
versus your weight, your mass,
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比上你的体重
06:36
for all of us bunch of organisms.
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这适用于人类以及许多其它生物
06:39
And it's plotted in this funny way by going up by factors of 10,
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它的结构很有意思 以10倍递进
06:42
otherwise you couldn't get everything on the graph.
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否则你无法看到全局
06:44
And what you see if you plot it
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在这样一个有意思的图标中
06:46
in this slightly curious way
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你可以看到
06:48
is that everybody lies on the same line.
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每个人都落在了同一条线上
06:51
Despite the fact that this is the most complex and diverse system
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尽管这是宇宙中
06:54
in the universe,
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最为纷繁复杂的系统
06:57
there's an extraordinary simplicity
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但它显示了一个
06:59
being expressed by this.
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极为简单现象
07:01
It's particularly astonishing
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这令人震惊
07:04
because each one of these organisms,
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这上面的每个物种
07:06
each subsystem, each cell type, each gene,
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每个子系统 每个细胞种类 每个基因
07:08
has evolved in its own unique environmental niche
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都在其独特的生态位和历史中
07:12
with its own unique history.
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得到进化发展
07:15
And yet, despite all of that Darwinian evolution
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然而 即使经过了达尔文派支持的进化论
07:18
and natural selection,
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和自然选择
07:20
they've been constrained to lie on a line.
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它们最终还是集中到了一条线上
07:22
Something else is going on.
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还有其它力量在发挥作用
07:24
Before I talk about that,
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谈到这之前
07:26
I've written down at the bottom there
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我在底下标出了
07:28
the slope of this curve, this straight line.
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这条曲线的斜率 即这条直线
07:30
It's three-quarters, roughly,
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大约为3比4
07:32
which is less than one -- and we call that sublinear.
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小于1 呈“次线性”
07:35
And here's the point of that.
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这里有一点值得注意
07:37
It says that, if it were linear,
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当最大斜率
07:40
the steepest slope,
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呈线性
07:42
then doubling the size
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那么当体型翻倍
07:44
you would require double the amount of energy.
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所需能量也随之翻倍
07:46
But it's sublinear, and what that translates into
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而若呈次线性 情况则是
07:49
is that, if you double the size of the organism,
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当生物的体型翻倍
07:51
you actually only need 75 percent more energy.
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它实际只需增加75%的能量
07:54
So a wonderful thing about all of biology
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生物的奇妙之处就在于
07:56
is that it expresses an extraordinary economy of scale.
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它巧妙地展现了经济的伸展能力
07:59
The bigger you are systematically,
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根据准确定义的规律
08:01
according to very well-defined rules,
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一个系统越大
08:03
less energy per capita.
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其所需的平均能力越少
08:06
Now any physiological variable you can think of,
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你能够想到的任何变量
08:09
any life history event you can think of,
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任何历史事件
08:11
if you plot it this way, looks like this.
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只要你照着这样制表 都会得到相似的图形
08:14
There is an extraordinary regularity.
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其一致性非常惊人
08:16
So you tell me the size of a mammal,
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只要你说出一种哺乳动物的体型
08:18
I can tell you at the 90 percent level everything about it
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我就能告诉你关于其生理和生命周期等情况
08:21
in terms of its physiology, life history, etc.
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正确率90%
08:25
And the reason for this is because of networks.
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原因就在于网络
08:28
All of life is controlled by networks --
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所有生命都由网络所控制
08:31
from the intracellular through the multicellular
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不论是单细胞还是多细胞生物
08:33
through the ecosystem level.
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整个生态系统都是如此
08:35
And you're very familiar with these networks.
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你对这些网络并不陌生
08:39
That's a little thing that lives inside an elephant.
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这是生长在大象体内的一种小生物
08:42
And here's the summary of what I'm saying.
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这是我讲话内容的总结
08:45
If you take those networks,
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你有了这些网络
08:47
this idea of networks,
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网络的概念
08:49
and you apply universal principles,
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再用上普遍原理
08:51
mathematizable, universal principles,
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数学化的普遍原理
08:53
all of these scalings
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所有规模增长
08:55
and all of these constraints follow,
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所有限制因素
08:58
including the description of the forest,
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包括森林的情况
09:00
the description of your circulatory system,
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你循环系统的情况
09:02
the description within cells.
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细胞内部情况等
09:04
One of the things I did not stress in that introduction
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我在介绍中没有提及的一点是
09:07
was that, systematically, the pace of life
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生长的节奏会随着你体型的增大
09:10
decreases as you get bigger.
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而系统性地减缓
09:12
Heart rates are slower; you live longer;
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心率会减缓 你活得更久
09:15
diffusion of oxygen and resources
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通过细胞膜的氧气
09:17
across membranes is slower, etc.
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和物质的流动减缓
09:19
The question is: Is any of this true
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问题是 这是否
09:21
for cities and companies?
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也适用于城市和企业
09:24
So is London a scaled up Birmingham,
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伦敦是否是长大了的伯明翰
09:27
which is a scaled up Brighton, etc., etc.?
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而伯明翰是否是长大了的布莱顿 等等
09:30
Is New York a scaled up San Francisco,
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纽约是否是长大了的旧金山
09:32
which is a scaled up Santa Fe?
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而旧金山是否是长大了的圣达菲
09:34
Don't know. We will discuss that.
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不知道 我们稍候再讨论
09:36
But they are networks,
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但它们都是网络
09:38
and the most important network of cities
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而城市最重要的网络
09:40
is you.
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就是你
09:42
Cities are just a physical manifestation
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城市只是
09:45
of your interactions,
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你我社会活动
09:47
our interactions,
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以及个体相互聚拢集合的
09:49
and the clustering and grouping of individuals.
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物质表现
09:51
Here's just a symbolic picture of that.
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这只是一张简易图表
09:54
And here's scaling of cities.
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这是城市规模的扩大
09:56
This shows that in this very simple example,
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这幅图显示出了一个非常简单的例子
09:59
which happens to be a mundane example
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这例子很寻常
10:01
of number of petrol stations
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加油站的数量
10:03
as a function of size --
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作为规模
10:05
plotted in the same way as the biology --
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按照同于生物的方法制表
10:07
you see exactly the same kind of thing.
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你能够观察到一模一样的结果
10:09
There is a scaling.
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上面显示了增长的趋势
10:11
That is that the number of petrol stations in the city
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你告诉我城市的规模
10:15
is now given to you
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我就能够说出
10:17
when you tell me its size.
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这座城市有多少个加油站
10:19
The slope of that is less than linear.
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斜率呈次线性
10:22
There is an economy of scale.
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这是规模经济
10:24
Less petrol stations per capita the bigger you are -- not surprising.
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城市越大 人均加油站数量就越小 并不稀奇
10:27
But here's what's surprising.
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稀奇的在这里
10:29
It scales in the same way everywhere.
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增长的规律在哪里都适用
10:31
This is just European countries,
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这反映的只是欧洲国家的情况
10:33
but you do it in Japan or China or Colombia,
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但如果你用同样的方法观察日本 中国或哥伦比亚
10:36
always the same
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结果都是一样的
10:38
with the same kind of economy of scale
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同样的规模经济
10:40
to the same degree.
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同样的水平
10:42
And any infrastructure you look at --
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而且 你看到的所有基础设施
10:45
whether it's the length of roads, length of electrical lines --
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不论是道路还是电线的长度
10:48
anything you look at
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不论是什么
10:50
has the same economy of scale scaling in the same way.
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都存在增长模式相同的规模经济
10:53
It's an integrated system
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这个综合体系
10:55
that has evolved despite all the planning and so on.
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不停演进 无论如何规划都是如此
10:58
But even more surprising
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而当你看到
11:00
is if you look at socio-economic quantities,
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社会经济数量
11:02
quantities that have no analog in biology,
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即八千到一万年前
11:05
that have evolved when we started forming communities
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我们开始建立社区时的社会经济数量
11:08
eight to 10,000 years ago.
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你们会感到更加意外
11:10
The top one is wages as a function of size
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上图以工资作为规模参数
11:12
plotted in the same way.
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同理制表
11:14
And the bottom one is you lot --
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而下面的是“你”
11:16
super-creatives plotted in the same way.
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也就是超级智能人 同理制表
11:19
And what you see
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上面显示出
11:21
is a scaling phenomenon.
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一个规模增长的现象
11:23
But most important in this,
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但图上最重要的是
11:25
the exponent, the analog to that three-quarters
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新陈代谢率的幂
11:27
for the metabolic rate,
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近似于三分之四
11:29
is bigger than one -- it's about 1.15 to 1.2.
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大于1 大约在1.15和1.2之间
11:31
Here it is,
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意思是
11:33
which says that the bigger you are
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规模越大
11:36
the more you have per capita, unlike biology --
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人均数就越多 与生物学的情况相反
11:39
higher wages, more super-creative people per capita as you get bigger,
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工资越高 就有越多的超级智能人出现
11:43
more patents per capita, more crime per capita.
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人均专利和犯罪率越高
11:46
And we've looked at everything:
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我们研究了所有事物
11:48
more AIDS cases, flu, etc.
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艾滋病病例 流感等等
11:51
And here, they're all plotted together.
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把这些都放在一起制成表
11:53
Just to show you what we plotted,
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让你们看到
11:55
here is income, GDP --
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我们把收入 GDP
11:58
GDP of the city --
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城市的GDP
12:00
crime and patents all on one graph.
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犯罪和专利都放在一张图上
12:02
And you can see, they all follow the same line.
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你们可以看到
12:04
And here's the statement.
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下面是图的表述
12:06
If you double the size of a city from 100,000 to 200,000,
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如果一个城市的规模从10万增长至20万
12:09
from a million to two million, 10 to 20 million,
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从一百万到两百万 从一千万到两千万
12:11
it doesn't matter,
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都一样
12:13
then systematically
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在这个城市中
12:15
you get a 15 percent increase
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工资 财富 艾滋病病例
12:17
in wages, wealth, number of AIDS cases,
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警察人数
12:19
number of police,
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任何你能想到的事物
12:21
anything you can think of.
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都会系统地增加15%
12:23
It goes up by 15 percent,
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对于所有事物都是如此
12:25
and you have a 15 percent savings
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你还能节省
12:28
on the infrastructure.
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15%的基础设施经费
12:31
This, no doubt, is the reason
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这无疑就是
12:34
why a million people a week are gathering in cities.
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城市每周新增一百万人口的原因
12:37
Because they think that all those wonderful things --
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他们觉得那些美好的事物
12:40
like creative people, wealth, income --
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包括创新人才 财富 收入
12:42
is what attracts them,
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对他们有吸引力
12:44
forgetting about the ugly and the bad.
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而忘记了城市丑恶的一面
12:46
What is the reason for this?
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原因何在
12:48
Well I don't have time to tell you about all the mathematics,
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我没有时间跟大家解释其中的数学
12:51
but underlying this is the social networks,
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社会网络是其基础
12:54
because this is a universal phenomenon.
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因为这是个普遍现象
12:57
This 15 percent rule
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这个15%的规律
13:00
is true
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是真的
13:02
no matter where you are on the planet --
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无论你在地球上哪个角落
13:04
Japan, Chile,
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日本 智利
13:06
Portugal, Scotland, doesn't matter.
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葡萄牙 苏格兰 都一样
13:09
Always, all the data shows it's the same,
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尽管城市的发展是各自独立的
13:12
despite the fact that these cities have evolved independently.
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然而所有数据显示的结果都是一样的
13:15
Something universal is going on.
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这里蕴藏着一个普遍的规律
13:17
The universality, to repeat, is us --
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普遍性在于我们
13:20
that we are the city.
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我们就是城市
13:22
And it is our interactions and the clustering of those interactions.
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城市是我们相互活动以及这些活动的汇集
13:25
So there it is, I've said it again.
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我刚才说过了
13:27
So if it is those networks and their mathematical structure,
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那些网络和它们的数学结构
13:30
unlike biology, which had sublinear scaling,
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与呈次线性的生物界不同
13:33
economies of scale,
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生物是规模经济
13:35
you had the slowing of the pace of life
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会随着规模的增大
13:37
as you get bigger.
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而减缓生长的速度
13:39
If it's social networks with super-linear scaling --
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如果城市的社会网络呈现超线性
13:41
more per capita --
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人均数值越高
13:43
then the theory says
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那么依照原理
13:45
that you increase the pace of life.
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生长速度便会增加
13:47
The bigger you are, life gets faster.
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你长得越大 生长速度就越快
13:49
On the left is the heart rate showing biology.
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左边是心率
13:51
On the right is the speed of walking
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右边是行走的速度
13:53
in a bunch of European cities,
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在许多欧洲城市
13:55
showing that increase.
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显示这样的增长情况
13:57
Lastly, I want to talk about growth.
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最后 我想谈谈增长
14:00
This is what we had in biology, just to repeat.
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在重复一下 这是生物学的情况
14:03
Economies of scale
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规模经济
14:06
gave rise to this sigmoidal behavior.
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使之呈现反曲现象
14:09
You grow fast and then stop --
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你快速生长接着停止生长
14:12
part of our resilience.
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这是我们回复力的表现
14:14
That would be bad for economies and cities.
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这对经济和城市都不利
14:17
And indeed, one of the wonderful things about the theory
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说实在的 这个原理奇妙之处之一在于
14:19
is that if you have super-linear scaling
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如果财富创造和创新的
14:22
from wealth creation and innovation,
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规模增长呈超线性
14:24
then indeed you get, from the same theory,
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那么根据同一理论 你必定会得到
14:27
a beautiful rising exponential curve -- lovely.
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一条美妙的正态曲线 漂亮极了
14:29
And in fact, if you compare it to data,
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实际上 如果你把它与数据进行对比
14:31
it fits very well
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它非常符合
14:33
with the development of cities and economies.
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城市与经济的发展情况
14:35
But it has a terrible catch,
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然而 它存在着一个致命局限
14:37
and the catch
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这个局限就是
14:39
is that this system is destined to collapse.
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这个系统注定会崩溃
14:42
And it's destined to collapse for many reasons --
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它之所以注定会崩溃 原因有很多
14:44
kind of Malthusian reasons -- that you run out of resources.
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多少出于此消彼长的原因 资源枯竭了
14:47
And how do you avoid that? Well we've done it before.
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如何避免这种情况呢 我们曾尝试过
14:50
What we do is,
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我们所做的是
14:52
as we grow and we approach the collapse,
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当我们发展到接近崩溃的阶段
14:55
a major innovation takes place
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一项重大的创新出现了
14:58
and we start over again,
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我们又从新开始
15:00
and we start over again as we approach the next one, and so on.
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向下一个目标靠近 以此类推
15:03
So there's this continuous cycle of innovation
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所以这个周而复始的创新周期
15:05
that is necessary
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对于维系发展
15:07
in order to sustain growth and avoid collapse.
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避免崩溃 是十分必要的
15:10
The catch, however, to this
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然而 这一局限
15:12
is that you have to innovate
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要求你必须
15:14
faster and faster and faster.
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不断加速创新
15:17
So the image
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所以 情况就是
15:19
is that we're not only on a treadmill that's going faster,
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我们不仅坐在一架高速运转的机器上
15:22
but we have to change the treadmill faster and faster.
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我们还必须加速对机器的更新
15:25
We have to accelerate on a continuous basis.
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我们必须不停地加速
15:28
And the question is: Can we, as socio-economic beings,
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问题是 作为社会经济的存在
15:31
avoid a heart attack?
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我们能够避免心脏病发作吗
15:34
So lastly, I'm going to finish up in this last minute or two
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最后 我会花一两分钟
15:37
asking about companies.
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看看公司的情况
15:39
See companies, they scale.
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公司的规模不断增大
15:41
The top one, in fact, is Walmart on the right.
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上面右边的是沃尔玛
15:43
It's the same plot.
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同样的图表
15:45
This happens to be income and assets
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这张图显示的是收入和资产
15:47
versus the size of the company as denoted by its number of employees.
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比上公司规模 即员工人数
15:49
We could use sales, anything you like.
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我们还可以用销售量 什么都行
15:52
There it is: after some little fluctuations at the beginning,
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看 当公司进行革新
15:55
when companies are innovating,
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一开始出现轻微浮动
15:57
they scale beautifully.
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它们长势良好
15:59
And we've looked at 23,000 companies
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我们观察了23000家
16:02
in the United States, may I say.
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美国境内的企业
16:04
And I'm only showing you a little bit of this.
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我今天展示给大家的只是冰山一角
16:07
What is astonishing about companies
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企业令人意想不到的地方是
16:09
is that they scale sublinearly
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是它们的规模增长呈次线性
16:12
like biology,
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就像生物学的情况一样
16:14
indicating that they're dominated,
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这表明主导它们的
16:16
not by super-linear
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并不是超线性的
16:18
innovation and ideas;
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创新活动和思想
16:21
they become dominated
408
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主导它们的
16:23
by economies of scale.
409
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是规模经济
16:25
In that interpretation,
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具体说来
16:27
by bureaucracy and administration,
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就是官僚主义和行政部门
16:29
and they do it beautifully, may I say.
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可以说 它们干得很棒
16:31
So if you tell me the size of some company, some small company,
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所以 如果你告诉我某个小企业的规模
16:34
I could have predicted the size of Walmart.
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我就可以估摸出沃尔玛的规模
16:37
If it has this sublinear scaling,
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如果其规模的增长呈次线性
16:39
the theory says
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依照原理
16:41
we should have sigmoidal growth.
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我们应该会得到一个S型的增长
16:44
There's Walmart. Doesn't look very sigmoidal.
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这是沃尔玛 看起来并不十分像个S
16:46
That's what we like, hockey sticks.
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我们喜欢这个形状 冰球棍
16:49
But you notice, I've cheated,
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但如果你仔细看 我其实做了手脚
16:51
because I've only gone up to '94.
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因为我展示的部分只到94年
16:53
Let's go up to 2008.
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我们看看到了2008年情况如何
16:55
That red line is from the theory.
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红线表示的是理论上的预测
16:58
So if I'd have done this in 1994,
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如果我1994年开始制表
17:00
I could have predicted what Walmart would be now.
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我就能够预测到沃尔玛现在的情况
17:03
And then this is repeated
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这个情况
17:05
across the entire spectrum of companies.
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在所有公司的生命周期中不断重复
17:07
There they are. That's 23,000 companies.
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这些就是所有23000家公司
17:10
They all start looking like hockey sticks,
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它们一开始都呈现冰球棍的形状
17:12
they all bend over,
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接着都弯下来了
17:14
and they all die like you and me.
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最后它们就像你我一样难逃一死
17:16
Thank you.
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谢谢大家
17:18
(Applause)
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(众人鼓掌)
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