Geoffrey West: The surprising math of cities and corporations

Prevoditelj: Mislav Ante Omazić - EFZG Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG

Cities are the crucible of civilization.

Gradovi su pravo iskušenje za civilizaciju.

They have been expanding,

Oni se šire,

urbanization has been expanding,

urbanizacija se širi,

at an exponential rate in the last 200 years

eksponencijalno u posljednjih 200 godina,

so that by the second part of this century,

tako će do drugog dijela ovog stoljeća

the planet will be completely dominated

planetom u potpunosti dominirati

by cities.

gradovi.

Cities are the origins of global warming,

Gradovi su izvorište globalnog zatopljenja,

impact on the environment,

utjecaja na okoliš,

health, pollution, disease,

zdravlje, zagađenje, bolesti,

finance,

financije,

economies, energy --

ekonomije, energiju --

they're all problems

to su sve problemi

that are confronted by having cities.

s kojima smo suočeni jer imamo gradove.

That's where all these problems come from.

Od tuda dolaze svi ti problemi.

And the tsunami of problems that we feel we're facing

A plimni val problema koje osjećamo da se s njima suočavamo

in terms of sustainability questions

u smislu pitanja održivosti,

are actually a reflection

su u stvari refleksije

of the exponential increase

eksponencijalnog rasta

in urbanization across the planet.

urbanizacije širom planeta.

Here's some numbers.

Ovdje su neki brojevi.

Two hundred years ago, the United States

Prije 200 godina, Sjedinjene Države

was less than a few percent urbanized.

su bile urbanizirane tek nekoliko posto.

It's now more than 82 percent.

Sada je to preko 82 posto.

The planet has crossed the halfway mark a few years ago.

Planet je prešao oznaku pola puta prije nekoliko godina.

China's building 300 new cities

Kina gradi 300 novih gradova

in the next 20 years.

u sljedećih 20 godina.

Now listen to this:

Sad slušajte ovo:

Every week for the foreseeable future,

svaki tjedan u doglednoj budućnosti

until 2050,

do 2050.,

every week more than a million people

svakog tjedna više od milijun ljudi

are being added to our cities.

se dodaje našim gradovima.

This is going to affect everything.

To će utjecati na sve.

Everybody in this room, if you stay alive,

Svi u ovoj sobi, ako ostanete živi,

is going to be affected

će biti pod utjecajem

by what's happening in cities

onoga što se događa u gradovima

in this extraordinary phenomenon.

u tom izvanrednom fenomenu.

However, cities,

Kako bilo, gradovi,

despite having this negative aspect to them,

unatoč tom njihovom negativnom aspektu,

are also the solution.

su također rješenje.

Because cities are the vacuum cleaners and the magnets

Jer gradovi su usisivači i magneti

that have sucked up creative people,

koji su usisali kreativne ljude,

creating ideas, innovation,

koji stvaraju ideje, inovacije,

wealth and so on.

bogatstvo i tako dalje.

So we have this kind of dual nature.

Dakle imamo tu vrstu dualne prirode.

And so there's an urgent need

I tako postoji hitna potreba

for a scientific theory of cities.

za znanstvenom teorijom gradova.

Now these are my comrades in arms.

Ovo su moja braća po oružju.

This work has been done with an extraordinary group of people,

Ovaj posao je obavljen od strane izvanredne grupe ljudi,

and they've done all the work,

i oni su obavili sav posao,

and I'm the great bullshitter

a ja sam veliki seronja

that tries to bring it all together.

koji pokušava sve to spojiti.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

So here's the problem: This is what we all want.

Tu je problem: To je ono što svi želimo.

The 10 billion people on the planet in 2050

10 milijardi ljudi na planetu 2050.

want to live in places like this,

želi živjeti na mjestima poput ovog,

having things like this,

imati stvari poput ovih,

doing things like this,

raditi stvari poput ovih,

with economies that are growing like this,

s ekonomijom koja raste toliko,

not realizing that entropy

ne prepoznajući entropiju

produces things like this,

proizvodeći stvari poput ovih,

this, this

ovih, ovih

and this.

i ovih.

And the question is:

A pitanje je:

Is that what Edinburgh and London and New York

kako će Edinburgh i London i New York

are going to look like in 2050,

izgledati 2050.,

or is it going to be this?

ili će biti ovo?

That's the question.

To je pitanje.

I must say, many of the indicators

Moram reći, mnogi indikatori

look like this is what it's going to look like,

izgledaju ovako i ovako će izgledati,

but let's talk about it.

ali popričajmo o tome.

So my provocative statement

Dakle moja provokativna izjava

is that we desperately need a serious scientific theory of cities.

jest da očajnički trebamo ozbiljnu znanstvenu teoriju o gradovima.

And scientific theory means quantifiable --

A znanstvena teorija zači kvantificirati --

relying on underlying generic principles

oslanjajući se na opće prihvaćene principe

that can be made into a predictive framework.

koji se mogu napraviti u previdljivom okviru.

That's the quest.

To je potraga.

Is that conceivable?

Može li se to zamisliti?

Are there universal laws?

Postoje li univerzalni zakoni?

So here's two questions

Dakle tu su moja dva pitanja

that I have in my head when I think about this problem.

koja imam u glavi kada razmišljam o ovom problemu.

The first is:

Prvo je:

Are cities part of biology?

jesu li gradovi dio biologije?

Is London a great big whale?

Je li London veliki kit?

Is Edinburgh a horse?

Je li Edinburgh konj?

Is Microsoft a great big anthill?

Je li Microsoft veliki mravinjak?

What do we learn from that?

Što naučimo iz toga?

We use them metaphorically --

Upotrebljavamo ih metaforički --

the DNA of a company, the metabolism of a city, and so on --

DNK kompanije, metabolizam grada, i tako dalje --

is that just bullshit, metaphorical bullshit,

je li to samo sranje, metaforičko sranje,

or is there serious substance to it?

ili tu postoji ozbiljna supstanca?

And if that is the case,

I ako je tome slučaj,

how come that it's very hard to kill a city?

kako to da je jako teško ubiti grad?

You could drop an atom bomb on a city,

Možete baciti atomsku bombu na grad,

and 30 years later it's surviving.

i 30 godina kasnije on preživljava.

Very few cities fail.

Jako malo gradova propadne.

All companies die, all companies.

Sve kompanije umru, sve kompanije.

And if you have a serious theory, you should be able to predict

I ako imate ozbiljnu teoriju, trebali biste biti sposobni predvidjeti

when Google is going to go bust.

kada će Google propasti.

So is that just another version

Dakle, je li ovo samo još jedna verzija

of this?

ovoga?

Well we understand this very well.

Ovo razumijemo jako dobro.

That is, you ask any generic question about this --

Odnosno, pitate bilo koje generično pitanje o ovome --

how many trees of a given size,

koliko stabala određene veličine,

how many branches of a given size does a tree have,

koliko grana date veličine drvo ima,

how many leaves,

koliko listova,

what is the energy flowing through each branch,

koja energija teče kroz svaku granu,

what is the size of the canopy,

koja je veličina nadstrešnice,

what is its growth, what is its mortality?

koji je njen rast, koja je njena smrtnost?

We have a mathematical framework

Imamo matematički okvir

based on generic universal principles

baziran na generičkim univerzalnim principima

that can answer those questions.

koji može odgovoriti na ta pitanja.

And the idea is can we do the same for this?

I ideja je, možemo li napraviti isto za ovo?

So the route in is recognizing

Tako je smjer u prepoznavanju

one of the most extraordinary things about life,

jedne od najizvanrednijih stvari o životu,

is that it is scalable,

je da je skalabilan,

it works over an extraordinary range.

funkcionira preko izvanrednog raspona.

This is just a tiny range actually:

Ovo je u stvari samo sitan raspon;

It's us mammals;

to smo mi sisavci,

we're one of these.

mi smo jedno od ovih.

The same principles, the same dynamics,

Isti principi, ista dinamika,

the same organization is at work

ista je organizacija na poslu

in all of these, including us,

u svemu ovome, uključujući nas,

and it can scale over a range of 100 million in size.

i može imati raspon od preko 100 milijuna veličina.

And that is one of the main reasons

I to je jedan od glavnih razloga

life is so resilient and robust --

zašto je život tako elastičan i robustan --

scalability.

skalabilnost.

We're going to discuss that in a moment more.

O tome ćemo raspravljati za par trenutaka.

But you know, at a local level,

Ali znate, na lokalnoj razini,

you scale; everybody in this room is scaled.

skalirate, svi u ovoj sobi su skalirani.

That's called growth.

To se naziva rastom.

Here's how you grew.

Evo kako rastete.

Rat, that's a rat -- could have been you.

Štakor, ovo je štakor -- mogao je biti vi.

We're all pretty much the same.

Svi smo mi prilično jednaki.

And you see, you're very familiar with this.

I vidite, vi ste upoznati s time.

You grow very quickly and then you stop.

Vi rastete jako brzo i onda stanete.

And that line there

A ova linija tamo

is a prediction from the same theory,

jest predviđanje iz iste teorije,

based on the same principles,

bazirano na istim predviđanjima,

that describes that forest.

koja opisuju ovu šumu.

And here it is for the growth of a rat,

A ovdje je rast štakora.

and those points on there are data points.

A ove točke tamo su podatkovne točke.

This is just the weight versus the age.

To je samo težina nasuprot godinama.

And you see, it stops growing.

I vidite, prestaje rasti.

Very, very good for biology --

Jako, jako dobro za biologiju --

also one of the reasons for its great resilience.

također jedan od razloga za njihovu veliku otpornost.

Very, very bad

Jako, jako loše

for economies and companies and cities

za ekonomiju i kompanije i gradove

in our present paradigm.

u sadašnjoj paradigmi.

This is what we believe.

To je ono što vjerujemo.

This is what our whole economy

To je ono što cijelo naše gospodarstvo

is thrusting upon us,

gura prema nama,

particularly illustrated in that left-hand corner:

posebno ilustrirani u tom lijevom korneru:

hockey sticks.

štapovi za hokej.

This is a bunch of software companies --

Ovo je gomila softverskih kompanija --

and what it is is their revenue versus their age --

i što je njihov prihod u odnosu na njihovu dob --

all zooming away,

sve se udaljavaju,

and everybody making millions and billions of dollars.

i svatko zarađuje milijune i milijarde dolara.

Okay, so how do we understand this?

Dobro, kako mi razumijemo ovo?

So let's first talk about biology.

Govorimo prvo o biologiji.

This is explicitly showing you

Ovo eksplicitno pokazuje

how things scale,

kako stvari skaliraju.

and this is a truly remarkable graph.

I ovo je uistinu izvanredan graf.

What is plotted here is metabolic rate --

Ono što je iscrtano ovdje jest matabolična stopa --

how much energy you need per day to stay alive --

koliko vam je energije potrebno dnevno kako biste preživjeli --

versus your weight, your mass,

naspram vaše težine, vaše mase,

for all of us bunch of organisms.

za sve nas, gomilu organizama.

And it's plotted in this funny way by going up by factors of 10,

I iscrtano je na ovaj zabavan način s faktorom 10,

otherwise you couldn't get everything on the graph.

drugačije ne bi sve stalo na graf.

And what you see if you plot it

I vidite da ako iscrtate to

in this slightly curious way

na malo neuobičajan način,

is that everybody lies on the same line.

jest da svi leže na istoj liniji.

Despite the fact that this is the most complex and diverse system

Unatoč činjenici da je to najkompleksniji i raznovrsniji sustav

in the universe,

u svemiru,

there's an extraordinary simplicity

postoji izvanredna jednostavnost

being expressed by this.

koja se ovako prikazuje.

It's particularly astonishing

Posebno je zadivljujuće

because each one of these organisms,

jer svaki od ovih organizama,

each subsystem, each cell type, each gene,

svaki podsustav, svaka vrsta čelije, svaki gen,

has evolved in its own unique environmental niche

se razvio unutar vlastite jedinstvene okolišne niše

with its own unique history.

sa svojom jedinstvenom poviješću.

And yet, despite all of that Darwinian evolution

I opet, unatoč toj darvinovoj evoluciji

and natural selection,

i prirodnoj selekciji,

they've been constrained to lie on a line.

ograničeni su da leže na istoj liniji.

Something else is going on.

Nešto drugo se događa.

Before I talk about that,

Prije nego što počnem o tome pričati,

I've written down at the bottom there

zapisao sam na dnu ovdje

the slope of this curve, this straight line.

nagib ove krivulje, ovu ravnu liniju.

It's three-quarters, roughly,

Otprilike je tri četvrtine

which is less than one -- and we call that sublinear.

što je manje od jedan -- i ja je nazivam sublineranom.

And here's the point of that.

A ovdje je važnost toga.

It says that, if it were linear,

Pokazuje kako, kada bi bila linearna,

the steepest slope,

najstrmiji nagib,

then doubling the size

zatim udvostručenje veličine

you would require double the amount of energy.

bila bi vam potrebna dvostruka količina energije.

But it's sublinear, and what that translates into

Ali ona je sublinearna, i onda se prevodi u

is that, if you double the size of the organism,

ovo, ako udvostručite količinu organizama,

you actually only need 75 percent more energy.

u stvari vam je potrebno samo 75 posto više energije.

So a wonderful thing about all of biology

Prekrasna stvar o svoj biologiji

is that it expresses an extraordinary economy of scale.

jest da ona ukazuje na izvanrednu ekonomiju obujma.

The bigger you are systematically,

Što ste sustavno veći,

according to very well-defined rules,

prema jako dobro definiranim pravilima,

less energy per capita.

manje energije per capita.

Now any physiological variable you can think of,

Sada bilo koja fiziološka varijabla koje se možete sjetiti,

any life history event you can think of,

svaki život povijesnog događaja kojeg se možete sjetiti,

if you plot it this way, looks like this.

ako ga iscrtate na ovaj način, izgleda ovako.

There is an extraordinary regularity.

Postoji izvanredna pravilnost.

So you tell me the size of a mammal,

Znači kažete mi veličinu sisavca,

I can tell you at the 90 percent level everything about it

a ja vam mogu reći na razini od 90 posto sve o njemu

in terms of its physiology, life history, etc.

u smislu fiziologije, životne povijesti, itd.

And the reason for this is because of networks.

A razlog tome su mreže.

All of life is controlled by networks --

Sav život se kontrolira od strane mreža --

from the intracellular through the multicellular

od intrastaničnih preko multistaničnih

through the ecosystem level.

do razine ekosustava.

And you're very familiar with these networks.

A vi ste jako dobro upoznati s tim mrežama.

That's a little thing that lives inside an elephant.

To je mala stvar koja živi unutar slona.

And here's the summary of what I'm saying.

A ovdje je sažetak onoga što govorim.

If you take those networks,

Ako uzmete te mreže,

this idea of networks,

tu ideju mreža,

and you apply universal principles,

i primjenite univerzalne principe,

mathematizable, universal principles,

matematičke, univerzalne principe,

all of these scalings

sve te skalabilnosti

and all of these constraints follow,

i sva ta ograničenja slijede,

including the description of the forest,

uključujući opis šume,

the description of your circulatory system,

opis vašeg cirkularnog sustava,

the description within cells.

opis unutar čelija.

One of the things I did not stress in that introduction

Jedna od stvari koje nisam dovoljno naglasio u uvodu

was that, systematically, the pace of life

jest da, sustavno, tempo života

decreases as you get bigger.

opada kako se povećavate.

Heart rates are slower; you live longer;

Otkucaji srca su sporiji, duže živite;

diffusion of oxygen and resources

difuzija kisika i resursa

across membranes is slower, etc.

preko membrana je sporija itd.

The question is: Is any of this true

Pitanje je: Je li išta od ovoga istina

for cities and companies?

za gradove i kompanije?

So is London a scaled up Birmingham,

Dakle je li London skalirani Birmingham,

which is a scaled up Brighton, etc., etc.?

koji je skaliran od Brightona, itd., itd.?

Is New York a scaled up San Francisco,

Je li New York skalirani San Francisco,

which is a scaled up Santa Fe?

koji je skaliran od Santa Fea?

Don't know. We will discuss that.

Ne znam. O tome ćemo raspravljati.

But they are networks,

Ali oni su mreže.

and the most important network of cities

I najvažnija mreža gradova

is you.

ste vi.

Cities are just a physical manifestation

Gradovi su samo fizička manifestacija

of your interactions,

vaših međuveza,

our interactions,

naših međuveza,

and the clustering and grouping of individuals.

i klastriranja i grupiranja pojedinaca.

Here's just a symbolic picture of that.

Ovdje je samo simbolična slika toga.

And here's scaling of cities.

A ovdje je skaliranje gradova.

This shows that in this very simple example,

Ovo pokazuje kako je ovo jako jednostavan primjer,

which happens to be a mundane example

koji je ujedno i svjetski primjer

of number of petrol stations

broja benzinskih stanica

as a function of size --

kao funkcije veličine --

plotted in the same way as the biology --

iscrtanih na isti način kao biologija --

you see exactly the same kind of thing.

vidite potpuno jednaku stvar.

There is a scaling.

Postoji skaliranje.

That is that the number of petrol stations in the city

Što znači da je broj benzinskih stanica u gradu

is now given to you

jednostavno izračunati

when you tell me its size.

kada mi kažete njegovu veličinu.

The slope of that is less than linear.

Nagib toga je manje linearan.

There is an economy of scale.

Postoji ekonomija obujma.

Less petrol stations per capita the bigger you are -- not surprising.

Manji broj benzinskih stanica što ste veći -- nikakvo iznenađenje.

But here's what's surprising.

Ali evo onoga što iznenađuje.

It scales in the same way everywhere.

Skalira na isti način svugdje.

This is just European countries,

Ovo su samo europske zemlje,

but you do it in Japan or China or Colombia,

ali ako to napravite u Japanu ili Kini ili Kolumbiji

always the same

uvijek će biti jednako

with the same kind of economy of scale

s istom vrstom ekonomije obujma

to the same degree.

do istog stupnja.

And any infrastructure you look at --

I svaka infrastruktura koju gledate --

whether it's the length of roads, length of electrical lines --

bilo da se radi o dužini cesta, dužini električnih linija --

anything you look at

sve što gledate

has the same economy of scale scaling in the same way.

ima istu ekonomiju obujma skaliranu na jednak način.

It's an integrated system

To je integrirani sustav

that has evolved despite all the planning and so on.

koji je evoluirao unatoč svom planiranju i tako dalje.

But even more surprising

Ali ono što još više iznenađuje

is if you look at socio-economic quantities,

jest ako pogledate socio-ekonomske količine,

quantities that have no analog in biology,

količine koje nemaju analogiju u biologiji,

that have evolved when we started forming communities

koje su nastale kada smo započeli formirati zajednice

eight to 10,000 years ago.

prije osam do 10.000 godina.

The top one is wages as a function of size

One na vrhu su plaće kao funkcija veličine

plotted in the same way.

iscrtane na isti način.

And the bottom one is you lot --

A na dnu je vas puno --

super-creatives plotted in the same way.

super-kreativni iscrtani na isti način.

And what you see

I ono što vidite

is a scaling phenomenon.

jest fenomen skaliranja.

But most important in this,

Ali najvažnije u ovome je,

the exponent, the analog to that three-quarters

eksponent, analogija na te tri četvrtine

for the metabolic rate,

za metaboličnu stopu,

is bigger than one -- it's about 1.15 to 1.2.

je veći od jedan -- on je oko 1,15 do 1,2.

Here it is,

Tu je,

which says that the bigger you are

što nam govori što ste veći

the more you have per capita, unlike biology --

više imate per capita, za razliku od biologije --

higher wages, more super-creative people per capita as you get bigger,

više plaće, više super-kreativnih ljudi per capita što ste veći,

more patents per capita, more crime per capita.

više patenata per capita, više kriminala per capita.

And we've looked at everything:

A mi smo gledali na sve:

more AIDS cases, flu, etc.

slučajeve SIDE, gripe, itd.

And here, they're all plotted together.

I ovdje, su svi grafički prikazani zajedno.

Just to show you what we plotted,

Samo da vam pokažem što smo prikazali,

here is income, GDP --

ovdje je prihod, BDP --

GDP of the city --

BDP grada --

crime and patents all on one graph.

kriminal i patenti svi na jednom grafu.

And you can see, they all follow the same line.

I možete vidjeti, svi prate istu liniju.

And here's the statement.

I ovdje je izjava.

If you double the size of a city from 100,000 to 200,000,

Ako udvostručite veličinu grada sa 100.000 na 200.000,

from a million to two million, 10 to 20 million,

s milijun na dva milijuna, 10 na 20 milijuna,

it doesn't matter,

nema veze,

then systematically

onda sustavno

you get a 15 percent increase

dobivate 15 postotno povećanje

in wages, wealth, number of AIDS cases,

u plaćama, bogatstvu, broju slučajeva SIDE,

number of police,

broju policajaca,

anything you can think of.

svega čega se možete sjetiti.

It goes up by 15 percent,

Ide gore 15 posto.

and you have a 15 percent savings

I imate 15 posto uštede

on the infrastructure.

na infrastrukturi.

This, no doubt, is the reason

To je, nema sumnje, razlog

why a million people a week are gathering in cities.

zašto milijun ljudi tjedno odlazi u gradove.

Because they think that all those wonderful things --

Zato jer misle kako sve te krasne stvari,

like creative people, wealth, income --

poput kreativnih ljudi, bogatstva, prihoda,

is what attracts them,

jest ono što ih privlači,

forgetting about the ugly and the bad.

zaboravljajući na ružno i loše.

What is the reason for this?

Koji je razlog tome?

Well I don't have time to tell you about all the mathematics,

Nemam dovoljno vremena za objasniti vam cijelu matematiku,

but underlying this is the social networks,

ali u ishodištu svega su društvene mreže,

because this is a universal phenomenon.

jer je to univerzalni problem.

This 15 percent rule

To pravilo 15 posto

is true

je istinito

no matter where you are on the planet --

bez obzira gdje se nalazite na Planetu --

Japan, Chile,

Japan, Čile,

Portugal, Scotland, doesn't matter.

Portugal, Škotska, nema veze.

Always, all the data shows it's the same,

Uvijek, svi podaci pokazuju isto,

despite the fact that these cities have evolved independently.

unatoč činjenici da su se ti gradovi razvijali neovisno.

Something universal is going on.

Nešto univerzalno se događa.

The universality, to repeat, is us --

Ta univerzalnost, da ponovim, smo mi --

that we are the city.

mi smo grad.

And it is our interactions and the clustering of those interactions.

I naše interakcije i klasteriranje tih informacija.

So there it is, I've said it again.

Dakle tu je, rekao sam ponovno.

So if it is those networks and their mathematical structure,

Dakle, zbog tih mreža i njihovih matematičkih struktura,

unlike biology, which had sublinear scaling,

za razliku od biologije, koja ima sublinearno skaliranje,

economies of scale,

ekonomijama veličine,

you had the slowing of the pace of life

imali biste usporavanje ritma života

as you get bigger.

kako rastete.

If it's social networks with super-linear scaling --

Ako je to društvena mreža sa super-linearnim skaliranjem --

more per capita --

više per capita --

then the theory says

onda teorija kaže

that you increase the pace of life.

da povećavate tempo života.

The bigger you are, life gets faster.

Što ste veći, život postaje brži.

On the left is the heart rate showing biology.

S lijeve strane su otkucaji srca koji pokazuju biologiju.

On the right is the speed of walking

S desne strane je brzina hodanja

in a bunch of European cities,

u grupi europskih gradova,

showing that increase.

koja pokazuje to povećanje.

Lastly, I want to talk about growth.

Konačno, želim pričati o rastu.

This is what we had in biology, just to repeat.

To je ono što smo imali u biologiji, samo se ponavlja.

Economies of scale

Ekonomije obujma

gave rise to this sigmoidal behavior.

stvara to sigmoidalno ponašanje.

You grow fast and then stop --

Rastete brzo i onda stanete --

part of our resilience.

dio naše elastičnosti.

That would be bad for economies and cities.

To bi bilo loše za ekonomije i gradove.

And indeed, one of the wonderful things about the theory

I stvarno, jedna od divnih stvari o teoriji

is that if you have super-linear scaling

jest da kada imate super-linerano skaliranje

from wealth creation and innovation,

od stvaranja bogatstva i inovacije,

then indeed you get, from the same theory,

onda stvarno dobijete, od iste teorije,

a beautiful rising exponential curve -- lovely.

prekrasno rastuću eksponencijalnu krivulju -- lijepo.

And in fact, if you compare it to data,

I u stvari, ako to usporedite s podatcima

it fits very well

jako se dobro poklapa

with the development of cities and economies.

s razvojem gradova i ekonomija.

But it has a terrible catch,

Ali ima groznu caku.

and the catch

A caka je

is that this system is destined to collapse.

da je sustav osuđen na propast.

And it's destined to collapse for many reasons --

A osuđen je na propast zbog puno razloga --

kind of Malthusian reasons -- that you run out of resources.

na neki način Malthusianski razlozi -- ostanete bez resursa.

And how do you avoid that? Well we've done it before.

I kako da izbjegnete to? Uspjeli smo prije.

What we do is,

Ono što napravimo je,

as we grow and we approach the collapse,

dok rastemo i približavamo se kolapsu,

a major innovation takes place

velika inovacija se dogodi

and we start over again,

i krenemo iz početka.

and we start over again as we approach the next one, and so on.

I krenemo iz početka kada se približimo slijedećoj, i tako dalje.

So there's this continuous cycle of innovation

Dakle postoji kontinuirani ciklus inovacije

that is necessary

koji je nužan

in order to sustain growth and avoid collapse.

kako bi se održao rast i izbjegao kolaps.

The catch, however, to this

Caka je, kako bilo, kako bi to radilo

is that you have to innovate

morate inovirati

faster and faster and faster.

brže i brže i brže.

So the image

Dakle slika

is that we're not only on a treadmill that's going faster,

je da nismo samo na pokretnoj traci koja ide sve brže

but we have to change the treadmill faster and faster.

već moramo mijenjati pokretne trake sve brže i brže.

We have to accelerate on a continuous basis.

Moramo ubrzavati stalno.

And the question is: Can we, as socio-economic beings,

A pitanje je: Možemo li, kao socio-ekonomska bića,

avoid a heart attack?

izbječi srčani udar?

So lastly, I'm going to finish up in this last minute or two

Na kraju, završiti ću u zadnjoj minuti ili dvije

asking about companies.

pitajući se za kompanije.

See companies, they scale.

Vidite kompanije, one skaliraju.

The top one, in fact, is Walmart on the right.

Onaj na vrhu, u stvari, to je Walmart na desno.

It's the same plot.

To je isti grafički podatak.

This happens to be income and assets

To ispada da je prihod i imovina

versus the size of the company as denoted by its number of employees.

nasuprot veličine kompanije prikazane brojem zaposlenika.

We could use sales, anything you like.

Mogli bi upotrijebiti prodaju, što god želite.

There it is: after some little fluctuations at the beginning,

Ovdje je: poslije malenih fluktuacija na početku,

when companies are innovating,

kada kompanije inoviraju

they scale beautifully.

one skaliraju prekrasno.

And we've looked at 23,000 companies

A mi smo gledali 23.000 kompanija,

in the United States, may I say.

u Sjedinjenim Državama, ako mogu reći.

And I'm only showing you a little bit of this.

A ja vam pokazujem samo maleni dio toga.

What is astonishing about companies

Ono što je zadivljujuće o kompanijama

is that they scale sublinearly

jest da one skaliraju sublinerano

like biology,

poput biologije,

indicating that they're dominated,

indicirajući da su dominantne,

not by super-linear

ne po super-linearnim

innovation and ideas;

inovacijama i idejama;

they become dominated

one postaju dominantne

by economies of scale.

ekonomijom obujma.

In that interpretation,

U toj interpretaciji,

by bureaucracy and administration,

od birokracije i administracije,

and they do it beautifully, may I say.

i one to rade prekrasno, ako mogu reći.

So if you tell me the size of some company, some small company,

Ako mi kažete veličinu neke kompanije, neke male kompanije,

I could have predicted the size of Walmart.

mogao bih predvidjeti veličinu Walmarta.

If it has this sublinear scaling,

Ako ima to sublinerano skaliranje,

the theory says

teorija kaže

we should have sigmoidal growth.

trebali bismo imati sigmoidalni rast.

There's Walmart. Doesn't look very sigmoidal.

Tu je Walmart. Ne izgleda jako sigmoidalno.

That's what we like, hockey sticks.

To je ono što volimo. Štapovi za hokej.

But you notice, I've cheated,

Ali primjetiti ćete, varao sam,

because I've only gone up to '94.

jer sam otišao samo do '94.

Let's go up to 2008.

Idemo do 2008.

That red line is from the theory.

Ova crvena linija je iz teorije.

So if I'd have done this in 1994,

Dakle da ste ovo napravili 1994.,

I could have predicted what Walmart would be now.

mogao sam predvidjeti kakav će Walmart biti sada.

And then this is repeated

I onda se ovo ponavlja

across the entire spectrum of companies.

po cijelom spektrumu kompanija.

There they are. That's 23,000 companies.

Tu su. To je 23.000 kompanija.

They all start looking like hockey sticks,

Sve počinju izgledati kao štapovi za hokej,

they all bend over,

sve se savijaju,

and they all die like you and me.

i sve umiru kao vi i ja.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)