Geoffrey West: The surprising math of cities and corporations

Translator: Arjada Bardhi Reviewer: Helena Bedalli

Cities are the crucible of civilization.

Qytetet jane djepe te qyteterimit.

They have been expanding,

Ata jane zgjeruar vazhdimisht,

urbanization has been expanding,

urbanizimi eshte ne zgjerim e siper,

at an exponential rate in the last 200 years

me nje ritem eksponencial ne 200 vitet e fundit,

so that by the second part of this century,

ne nje menyre te atille qe ne gjysmen e dyte te ketij shekulli

the planet will be completely dominated

planeti do te dominohet teresisht

by cities.

nga qytetet.

Cities are the origins of global warming,

Qytetet jane origjine e nxehjes globale

impact on the environment,

kane ndikim ne mjedis

health, pollution, disease,

shendet, ndotje, semundje,

finance,

finance

economies, energy --

ekonomi, energjitike --

they're all problems

keto jane te gjithe probleme

that are confronted by having cities.

me te cilat na perball prezenca e qyteteve.

That's where all these problems come from.

Ata jane origjina e te gjithe ketyre problemeve.

And the tsunami of problems that we feel we're facing

Dhe kjo stuhi problemesh me te cilat po perballemi

in terms of sustainability questions

ne lidhje me ceshtjet e qendrueshmerise,

are actually a reflection

jane ne fakt reflektim

of the exponential increase

i rritjes eksponenciale

in urbanization across the planet.

te urbanizimit ne te gjithe planetin.

Here's some numbers.

Ja disa shifra.

Two hundred years ago, the United States

200 vite me pare, Shtetet e Bashkuara

was less than a few percent urbanized.

ishin ne nje nivel perqindjeje shume te ulet urbanizimi.

It's now more than 82 percent.

Tani eshte me shume se 82 perqind.

The planet has crossed the halfway mark a few years ago.

Planeti e ka kaluar nivelin e gjysmes disa vite me pare.

China's building 300 new cities

Kina do te ndertoje 300 qytete te reja

in the next 20 years.

ne 20 vitet e ardhshme.

Now listen to this:

Tani degjoni kete:

Every week for the foreseeable future,

Cdo jave ne te ardhmen e afert,

until 2050,

deri ne vitin 2050,

every week more than a million people

cdo jave me shume se nje milion njerez

are being added to our cities.

po levizin drejt qyteteve tona.

This is going to affect everything.

Kjo do te ndikoje gjithcka.

Everybody in this room, if you stay alive,

Secili prej jush ne kete dhome, nese do te jete gjalle,

is going to be affected

do te ndikohet

by what's happening in cities

nga ajo cka po ndodh ne qytete

in this extraordinary phenomenon.

ne kete fenomen te jashtezakonshem.

However, cities,

Sidoqofte, qytetet,

despite having this negative aspect to them,

pavaresisht se mbartin kete aspekt negativ ne vete,

are also the solution.

jane po ashtu dhe zgjidhja.

Because cities are the vacuum cleaners and the magnets

Pikerisht sepse qytetet jane makina thithese dhe magnete

that have sucked up creative people,

qe kane terhequr fuqishem njerezit krijues,

creating ideas, innovation,

duke krijuar ide, zbulime te reja,

wealth and so on.

pasuri e keshtu me rradhe.

So we have this kind of dual nature.

Pra, ka nje natyre disi te dyfishte.

And so there's an urgent need

Andaj, ka nje nevoje urgjente

for a scientific theory of cities.

per nje teori shkencore te qyteteve.

Now these are my comrades in arms.

Tani keta jane bashkeudhetaret e mi ne kete kerkim.

This work has been done with an extraordinary group of people,

Kjo pune (kerkimore) eshte bere nga nje grup i jashtezakonshem njerezish,

and they've done all the work,

dhe ne fakt ata kane bere te gjithe punen,

and I'm the great bullshitter

dhe une jam vetem ai llafazani i madh

that tries to bring it all together.

qe po mundohet ta bashkoje te gjithe kete pune.

(Laughter)

(Te qeshura)

So here's the problem: This is what we all want.

Ja pra ku eshte problemi: Kjo eshte ajo cka te gjithe ne duam.

The 10 billion people on the planet in 2050

Te 10 miliarde njerezit ne kete planet ne 2050

want to live in places like this,

do te duan te jetojne ne vende te tilla,

having things like this,

te kene gjera te tilla,

doing things like this,

te bejne gjera te tilla,

with economies that are growing like this,

me ekonomi qe po rriten ne te ketille menyre,

not realizing that entropy

pa e kuptuar se entropia (rremuja)

produces things like this,

prodhon gjera si kjo

this, this

kjo, kjo

and this.

dhe kjo.

And the question is:

Dhe ceshtja eshte:

Is that what Edinburgh and London and New York

A eshte kjo menyra se si Edinburgu, Londra dhe New Yorku

are going to look like in 2050,

do te duken ne 2050,

or is it going to be this?

apo eshte kjo tjetra?

That's the question.

Kjo eshte ceshtja.

I must say, many of the indicators

Me duhet ta pranoj, shumica e treguesve

look like this is what it's going to look like,

sugjerojne se kjo eshte sesi do te duket

but let's talk about it.

por le te flasim ne lidhje me kete.

So my provocative statement

Qendrimi im provokativ

is that we desperately need a serious scientific theory of cities.

eshte se ne na nevojitet deshperimisht nje teori shkencore serioze e qyteteteve.

And scientific theory means quantifiable --

Dhe nje teori shkencore do te thote te jete e matshme --

relying on underlying generic principles

qe ngrihet mbi parime baze te pergjithshme

that can be made into a predictive framework.

te cilat mund te bashkohen ne nje skelet mendimi me fuqi parashikuese.

That's the quest.

Kjo eshte pra sfida.

Is that conceivable?

A eshte e mundshme?

Are there universal laws?

A ekzistojne ligje universale?

So here's two questions

Ja ku jane dy pyetje

that I have in my head when I think about this problem.

qe me qendrojne ne koke ndersa mendoj per kete problem.

The first is:

E para eshte:

Are cities part of biology?

A jane qytetet pjese e biologjise?

Is London a great big whale?

A eshte Londra nje balene e madhe?

Is Edinburgh a horse?

A eshte Edinburgu nje kale?

Is Microsoft a great big anthill?

A eshte Microsoft nje koloni e madhe milingonash?

What do we learn from that?

Cfare mesimesh nxjerrim nga keto?

We use them metaphorically --

I perdorim metaforikisht --

the DNA of a company, the metabolism of a city, and so on --

ADN-ja e nje kompanie, metabolizmi i nje qyteti, e keshtu me rradhe --

is that just bullshit, metaphorical bullshit,

a jane keto vetem pallavra, pallavra metaforike,

or is there serious substance to it?

apo ka substance serioze brenda tyre?

And if that is the case,

E nese eshte kjo e dyta,

how come that it's very hard to kill a city?

atehere si ka mundesi qe eshte kaq e veshtire te vrasesh nje qytet?

You could drop an atom bomb on a city,

Mund ta hedhesh nje bombe atomike ne nje qytet,

and 30 years later it's surviving.

dhe pas 30 vitesh, ai ende mbijeton.

Very few cities fail.

Shume pak qytete deshtojne te mbijetojne.

All companies die, all companies.

Te gjitha kompanite vdesin, te gjitha.

And if you have a serious theory, you should be able to predict

Nese ke nje teori serioze, duhet te jesh ne gjendje te parashikosh

when Google is going to go bust.

se kur do te zhduket Google.

So is that just another version

Pra, a eshte kjo vetem nje version tjeter

of this?

i kesaj?

Well we understand this very well.

Ne e kuptojme kete shume mire.

That is, you ask any generic question about this --

Qe domethene, ne mund te pyesim cdo lloj pyetjeje te pergjithshme ne lidhje me kete --

how many trees of a given size,

sa peme te nje madhesie te caktuar,

how many branches of a given size does a tree have,

sa dege te nje madhesie te caktuar ka nje peme,

how many leaves,

sa gjethe,

what is the energy flowing through each branch,

sa energji kalon permes seciles dege,

what is the size of the canopy,

sa e madhe eshte mbulesa gjethore,

what is its growth, what is its mortality?

si rritet, cfare do te thote te vdese?

We have a mathematical framework

Ne kemi nje konceptim matematikor

based on generic universal principles

te bazuar mbi parime universale te vetemjaftueshme

that can answer those questions.

per t'i dhene pergjigje ketyre pyetjeve.

And the idea is can we do the same for this?

Dhe ideja eshte: a mund te bejme te njejten dhe per kete?

So the route in is recognizing

Rruga drejt kesaj eshte te kuptoje

one of the most extraordinary things about life,

nje nga gjerat me te jashtezakonshme mbi jeten,

is that it is scalable,

qe eshte qe ajo (jeta) eshte e shkallezueshme,

it works over an extraordinary range.

shtrihet pergjate nje game te jashtezakonshme.

This is just a tiny range actually:

Kjo eshte ne fakt vetem nje fragment i vogel;

It's us mammals;

jemi ne gjitaret,

we're one of these.

ne jemi nje nga keta.

The same principles, the same dynamics,

Te njejtat parime, e njejta dinamike,

the same organization is at work

i njejti organizim funksionon

in all of these, including us,

per te gjithe keta, perfshire edhe ne,

and it can scale over a range of 100 million in size.

dhe mund te shkallezohet ne permasa te nje rendi me 100 milione.

And that is one of the main reasons

Dhe kjo eshte nje nga arsyet kryesore

life is so resilient and robust --

pse jeta eshte kaq e forte dhe e durueshme --

scalability.

shkallezueshmeria.

We're going to discuss that in a moment more.

Do ta diskutojme kete edhe per pak.

But you know, at a local level,

Por e dini, ne nje nivel lokal,

you scale; everybody in this room is scaled.

ti shkallezohesh, cdokush ne kete dhome shkallezohet.

That's called growth.

Kjo quhet rritje.

Here's how you grew.

Ja sesi ti rritesh.

Rat, that's a rat -- could have been you.

Mi, ky eshte nje mi -- por mund te kishte qene dhe grafiku juaj.

We're all pretty much the same.

Ne jemi te gjithe pak a shume njesoj.

And you see, you're very familiar with this.

Dhe ja e shihni, ju te gjithe e njihni kete.

You grow very quickly and then you stop.

Rriteni shume shpejt dhe me pas ndaloni se rrituri.

And that line there

Dhe ajo vija aty

is a prediction from the same theory,

eshte nje parashikim nga e njejta teori,

based on the same principles,

e bazuar mbi te njejtat principe

that describes that forest.

qe pershkruajne dhe ate pyll.

And here it is for the growth of a rat,

Dhe kjo ketu eshte per rritjen e nje miu.

and those points on there are data points.

Dhe ato pikat aty jane ne fakt te dhena te mbledhura.

This is just the weight versus the age.

Kjo eshte vetem pesha perkundrejt moshes.

And you see, it stops growing.

Dhe e shihni qe ndalon se rrituri.

Very, very good for biology --

Shume, shume e mire per biologjine --

also one of the reasons for its great resilience.

po ashtu dhe nje nga arsyet per qendrueshmerine e saj te madhe.

Very, very bad

Shume, shume e keqe

for economies and companies and cities

per ekonomite dhe kompanite dhe qytetet

in our present paradigm.

ne paradigmen ekzistuese.

This is what we believe.

Kjo eshte ajo cka ne besojme.

This is what our whole economy

Kjo eshte ajo cka e gjithe ekonomia jone

is thrusting upon us,

po na fut ne koke,

particularly illustrated in that left-hand corner:

e ilustruar vecanerisht ne ate cepin e majte:

hockey sticks.

shkopa hokej.

This is a bunch of software companies --

Ky eshte grafiku i nje sere kompanish softueresh --

and what it is is their revenue versus their age --

dhe ajo cka tregon jane te ardhurat perkundrejt moshes se tyre --

all zooming away,

te gjitha duke u rritur me shpejtesi,

and everybody making millions and billions of dollars.

dhe cdokush qe po ben miliona e miliarda dollare.

Okay, so how do we understand this?

Ok, pra si ta kuptojme kete?

So let's first talk about biology.

Le te flasim fillimisht per biologjine.

This is explicitly showing you

Kjo ju tregon qartazi

how things scale,

se si gjerat shkallezohen.

and this is a truly remarkable graph.

Dhe ky eshte nje grafik vertet mbreselenes.

What is plotted here is metabolic rate --

Ketu paraqitet ritmi metabolik --

how much energy you need per day to stay alive --

sa energji ju nevojitet cdo dite per te qendruar gjalle --

versus your weight, your mass,

perkundrejt peshes, mases suaj trupore

for all of us bunch of organisms.

per nje sere organizmash.

And it's plotted in this funny way by going up by factors of 10,

Dhe eshte i skicuar ne nje menyre zbavitese duke u rritur me shumefishe te 10-es,

otherwise you couldn't get everything on the graph.

perndryshe nuk do mundnim te permblidhnim gjithcka ne te njejtin grafik.

And what you see if you plot it

Dhe ajo cka shohim kur e skicojme

in this slightly curious way

ne kete forme disi kureshtare,

is that everybody lies on the same line.

eshte qe gjithcka ndodhet ne te njejten vije.

Despite the fact that this is the most complex and diverse system

Pavaresisht faktit se ky eshte sistemi me kompleks e me i shumellojshem

in the universe,

ne univers,

there's an extraordinary simplicity

ka nje thjeshtesi te jashtezakonshme

being expressed by this.

qe shprehet permes kesaj.

It's particularly astonishing

Eshte vecanerisht e habitshme

because each one of these organisms,

sepse secili prej ketyre organizmave,

each subsystem, each cell type, each gene,

secili nensistem, cdo lloj qelizeje, cdo gjen,

has evolved in its own unique environmental niche

ka evoluar ne mjedisin e tij unik

with its own unique history.

me historine e vet unike.

And yet, despite all of that Darwinian evolution

Dhe prape se prape, pavaresisht krejt atij evolucioni Darvinian

and natural selection,

dhe perzgjedhjeje natyrore,

they've been constrained to lie on a line.

ato jane detyruar te gjenden ne te njejten vije.

Something else is going on.

Dicka tjeter po ndodh ketu.

Before I talk about that,

Perpara se te flas per te,

I've written down at the bottom there

aty ne pjesen e poshtme te ekranit kam shkruar

the slope of this curve, this straight line.

pjerresine (gradientin) e asaj vije te drejte.

It's three-quarters, roughly,

Eshte tre te katertat, pak a shume,

which is less than one -- and we call that sublinear.

qe eshte me pak se nje -- dhe e quajme nenlineare.

And here's the point of that.

Dhe ideja eshte ketu:

It says that, if it were linear,

Ajo tregon se, po te ishte lineare,

the steepest slope,

me pjerresine me te madhe (gradient 1),

then doubling the size

atehere dyfishimi i madhesise

you would require double the amount of energy.

kerkon dyfishimin e sasise se energjise.

But it's sublinear, and what that translates into

Por eshte nenlineare, dhe kjo perkthehet ne kete menyre,

is that, if you double the size of the organism,

qe nese ju dyfishoni madhesine e organizmit,

you actually only need 75 percent more energy.

ne fakt ju duhet vetem 75 perqind me shume energji.

So a wonderful thing about all of biology

Pra nje gje e mrekullueshme ne te gjithe biologjine

is that it expresses an extraordinary economy of scale.

eshte se ne te vihet re nje "ekonomi e shkallezimit" e jashtezakonshme.

The bigger you are systematically,

Sa me i madh qe je sistematikisht,

according to very well-defined rules,

sipas rregullave te mirepercaktuara,

less energy per capita.

aq me pak energji per fryme.

Now any physiological variable you can think of,

Tani, cdo variabel fiziologjik qe mund t'ju vije ne mend,

any life history event you can think of,

cdo ngjarje historike e jetes qe mund t'ju vije ne mend,

if you plot it this way, looks like this.

nese e skiconi ne te ketille menyre, do te duket keshtu.

There is an extraordinary regularity.

Ka nje rregullsi te jashtezakonshme.

So you tell me the size of a mammal,

Pra, nese me tregon madhesine e nje gjitari,

I can tell you at the 90 percent level everything about it

mund te te tregoj rreth 90% te gjithckaje ne lidhje me te

in terms of its physiology, life history, etc.

ne lidhje me fiziologjine e tij, historine jetesore, etj.

And the reason for this is because of networks.

Dhe arsyeja per kete jane rrjetet.

All of life is controlled by networks --

E gjithe jeta eshte e kontrolluar permes rrjetesh --

from the intracellular through the multicellular

nga nderqelizorja tek shumeqelizorja

through the ecosystem level.

e deri tek niveli i ekosistemit.

And you're very familiar with these networks.

Dhe ju ne fakt jeni te njohur me keto rrjete.

That's a little thing that lives inside an elephant.

Kjo eshte nje gje e vogel qe jeton brenda nje elefanti.

And here's the summary of what I'm saying.

Dhe kjo eshte permbledhja e atyre qe po them.

If you take those networks,

Nese i merrni keto rrjete,

this idea of networks,

kete ide te rrjeteve,

and you apply universal principles,

dhe zbatoni parime universale

mathematizable, universal principles,

parime universale, te reduktueshme ne forme matematikore,

all of these scalings

te gjitha keto shkallezime

and all of these constraints follow,

dhe te gjitha keto rregullsi rrjedhin prej tyre,

including the description of the forest,

duke perfshire pershkrimi e pyllit,

the description of your circulatory system,

pershkrimin e sistemit tuaj qelizor,

the description within cells.

pershkrimin brenda qelizave.

One of the things I did not stress in that introduction

Nje nga gjerat te cilen s'e theksova ne ate hyrje

was that, systematically, the pace of life

ishte qe, sistematikisht, ritmi i jetes

decreases as you get bigger.

bie ndersa ju beheni me te medhenj.

Heart rates are slower; you live longer;

Te rrahurat e zemres jane me te ngadalshme; ju jetoni me gjate;

diffusion of oxygen and resources

shperberja e oksigjenit dhe e lendeve

across membranes is slower, etc.

permes membranave eshte me e ngadalshme etj.

The question is: Is any of this true

Pyetja eshte: A eshte ndonje nga keto e vertete

for cities and companies?

per qytetet dhe kompanite?

So is London a scaled up Birmingham,

Pra, a eshte Londra nje zmadhim i Birmingamit,

which is a scaled up Brighton, etc., etc.?

i cili eshte nje zmadhim i Brighton etj, etj. ?

Is New York a scaled up San Francisco,

A eshte New York nje zmadhim i San Francisco-s,

which is a scaled up Santa Fe?

i cili nga ana tjeter eshte nje zmadhim i Santa Fe?

Don't know. We will discuss that.

Nuk e di. Do ta diskutojme.

But they are networks,

Por ato jane rrjete.

and the most important network of cities

Dhe rrjeti me i rendesishem i qyteteve

is you.

jeni ju.

Cities are just a physical manifestation

Qytetet jane vec nje manifestim fizik

of your interactions,

i nderveprimeve tuaja,

our interactions,

i nderveprimeve tona,

and the clustering and grouping of individuals.

dhe i grumbullimit dhe grupimit te individeve.

Here's just a symbolic picture of that.

Kjo eshte vetem nje skicim simbolik i kesaj.

And here's scaling of cities.

Dhe ky eshte shkallezimi i qyteteve.

This shows that in this very simple example,

Kjo tregon se ne kete shembull shume te thjeshte,

which happens to be a mundane example

qe eshte gjitashtu nje shembull i zakonshem

of number of petrol stations

i numrit te pikave te karburantit

as a function of size --

si nje funksion i madhesise --

plotted in the same way as the biology --

te skicuara ne te njejten menyre si biologjia --

you see exactly the same kind of thing.

mund te shikoni pikerisht te njejten lloj gjeje.

There is a scaling.

Ky eshte nje shkallezim.

That is that the number of petrol stations in the city

Qe do te thote se numri i pikave te karburantit ne qytet

is now given to you

mund te llogaritet direkt

when you tell me its size.

kur te me tregoni madhesine e tij (qytetit).

The slope of that is less than linear.

Pjerrtesia e saj eshte me pak se lineare.

There is an economy of scale.

Ka pra nje "ekonomi te shkallezimit".

Less petrol stations per capita the bigger you are -- not surprising.

Sa me pak pika karburanti per fryme aq me i madh je - aspak e habitshme.

But here's what's surprising.

Po ja cfare eshte e habitshme.

It scales in the same way everywhere.

Shkallezimi ndodh ne te njejten forme kudo.

This is just European countries,

Keto jane vetem vendet Europiane,

but you do it in Japan or China or Colombia,

por mund ta besh per Japonine ose Kinen ose Kolumbine,

always the same

gjithmone e njejta

with the same kind of economy of scale

me te njejtin lloj ekonomie te shkallezimit

to the same degree.

me te njejten pjerrtesi.

And any infrastructure you look at --

Dhe cdo lloj infrastrukture qe mund te vezhgosh --

whether it's the length of roads, length of electrical lines --

pavaresisht nese eshte gjatesia e rrugeve, gjatesia e linjave elektrike --

anything you look at

cfaredo qofte

has the same economy of scale scaling in the same way.

ka te njejten ekonomi te shkallezimit qe shkallezohet ne te njejten menyre.

It's an integrated system

Eshte nje sistem i integruar

that has evolved despite all the planning and so on.

qe eshte zhvilluar pavaresisht gjithe planifikimit e keshtu me rradhe.

But even more surprising

Por ajo qe eshte edhe me e habitshme

is if you look at socio-economic quantities,

eshte nese vezhgon variabla shoqerore-ekonomike,

quantities that have no analog in biology,

variabla qe nuk kane analoge ne biologji,

that have evolved when we started forming communities

qe jane zhvilluar qe kur ne filluam te formonim komunitete

eight to 10,000 years ago.

tete deri ne dhjete mije vite me pare.

The top one is wages as a function of size

Ajo me siper paraqet pagat si nje funksion i mases

plotted in the same way.

te skicuara ne te njejten menyre.

And the bottom one is you lot --

Ndersa ne ate me poshte jeni pikerisht ju --

super-creatives plotted in the same way.

super-kreativet te skicuar ne po te njejten forme.

And what you see

Dhe ajo cka shihni

is a scaling phenomenon.

eshte nje fenomen i shkallezimit.

But most important in this,

Por cka eshte me e rendesishme,

the exponent, the analog to that three-quarters

eksponenti, analogia e asaj ¾

for the metabolic rate,

per ritmin metabolik

is bigger than one -- it's about 1.15 to 1.2.

eshte me e madhe se nje - eshte rreth 1.15 ose 1.2.

Here it is,

Ja ku eshte,

which says that the bigger you are

qe tregon se sa me i madh qe je

the more you have per capita, unlike biology --

aq me shume ke per fryme, ndryshe nga biologjia --

higher wages, more super-creative people per capita as you get bigger,

paga me te larta, me shume njerez super-krijues per fryme sa me i madh qe je,

more patents per capita, more crime per capita.

me shume patenta per fryme, me shume krim per fryme.

And we've looked at everything:

Dhe ne fakt kemi pare gjithcka:

more AIDS cases, flu, etc.

raste te SIDA-s, te gripit, etj.

And here, they're all plotted together.

Dhe ja, te gjitha jane te vizatuara ketu.

Just to show you what we plotted,

Sa per te treguar se si i skicuam,

here is income, GDP --

ketu jane te ardhurat, GDP-ja --

GDP of the city --

GDP-ja e qytetit --

crime and patents all on one graph.

krimi dhe patentat te gjitha ne te njejtin grafik.

And you can see, they all follow the same line.

Dhe e shihni, te gjitha ndodhen ne te njejten vije.

And here's the statement.

Mendimi im eshte ky.

If you double the size of a city from 100,000 to 200,000,

Nese e dyfishoni madhesine e nje qyteti nga 100,000 ne 200,000

from a million to two million, 10 to 20 million,

nga nje milion ne dy milione, nga 10 ne 20 milione,

it doesn't matter,

nuk ka rendesi nga cfare ne cfare,

then systematically

atehere sistematikisht

you get a 15 percent increase

do te kete nje rritje prej 15 perqindesh

in wages, wealth, number of AIDS cases,

ne paga, pasuri, numer te rasteve me SIDE

number of police,

numrit te policeve,

anything you can think of.

ne fakt te cdo gjeje qe mund t'ju bjere ne mend.

It goes up by 15 percent,

Cdo gje rritet me 15 perqind.

and you have a 15 percent savings

Dhe po ashtu ke nje 15 perqind rritje ne kursime

on the infrastructure.

ne infrastrukture.

This, no doubt, is the reason

Kjo, pa dyshim, eshte arsyeja

why a million people a week are gathering in cities.

pse nje milion njerez ne jave po i shtohen qyteteve.

Because they think that all those wonderful things --

Sepse ata mendojne se te gjitha keto gjera te mrekullueshme,

like creative people, wealth, income --

si njerezit krijues, pasuria, te ardhurat,

is what attracts them,

jane cfare i terheq ata,

forgetting about the ugly and the bad.

duke harruar per gjerat e keqija.

What is the reason for this?

Cili eshte shkaku i kesaj?

Well I don't have time to tell you about all the mathematics,

Nuk kam kohe t'ju tregoj te gjithe matematiken

but underlying this is the social networks,

por cka fshihet pas kesaj jane rrjetet shoqerore,

because this is a universal phenomenon.

sepse kjo eshte nje dukuri universale.

This 15 percent rule

Ky rregull i 15 perqindeshit

is true

eshte i vertete

no matter where you are on the planet --

pavaresisht se ne cilen pjese te globit ndodhesh

Japan, Chile,

Japoni, Kili,

Portugal, Scotland, doesn't matter.

Portugali, Skoci, nuk ka rendesi.

Always, all the data shows it's the same,

Gjithmone, te gjitha te dhenat tregojne te njejten,

despite the fact that these cities have evolved independently.

pavaresisht se keto qytete jane zhvilluar ne menyre te pavarur.

Something universal is going on.

Dicka universale fshihet ketu.

The universality, to repeat, is us --

Universaliteti, e perseris, jemi ne --

that we are the city.

ne jemi qyteti.

And it is our interactions and the clustering of those interactions.

Dhe jane nderveprimet tona dhe grumbullimet e ketyre nderveprimeve.

So there it is, I've said it again.

Ja pra, ja ku e thashe dhe njehere.

So if it is those networks and their mathematical structure,

Pra nese jane ato rrjete dhe struktura e tyre matematikore,

unlike biology, which had sublinear scaling,

ndryshe nga biologjia, qe kishte nje shkallezim nenlinear,

economies of scale,

me ekonomine e shkallezimit,

you had the slowing of the pace of life

ju pate se ndodh ngadalesimi i ritmit te jetes

as you get bigger.

ndersa ju beheni me te medhenj.

If it's social networks with super-linear scaling --

Por nese jane rrjetet sociale me shkallezim mbi-linear --

more per capita --

me shume per fryme --

then the theory says

atehere teoria thote se

that you increase the pace of life.

ritmi i jetes shpejtohet.

The bigger you are, life gets faster.

Sa me i madh je, aq me e shpejte behet jeta.

On the left is the heart rate showing biology.

Ne te majte shihni ritmin e zemres qe tregon biologjine.

On the right is the speed of walking

Ne te djathte keni shpejtesine e te ecurit

in a bunch of European cities,

ne nje sere qytetesh Europiane,

showing that increase.

qe paraqesin ate rritje.

Lastly, I want to talk about growth.

Se fundmi, dua te flas per rritjen.

This is what we had in biology, just to repeat.

Kjo eshte ajo qe kishim ne biologji, sa per perseritje.

Economies of scale

Ekonomia e shkallezimit

gave rise to this sigmoidal behavior.

ben qe te kemi kete sjellje ne forme sigmoidale.

You grow fast and then stop --

Rritesh shpejt dhe pastaj ndalon --

part of our resilience.

pjese e qendrueshmerise tone.

That would be bad for economies and cities.

Kjo do te ishte keq per ekonomite dhe qytetet.

And indeed, one of the wonderful things about the theory

Dhe ne te vertete, nje nga gjerat e mrekullueshme te kesaj teorie

is that if you have super-linear scaling

eshte se nese ke shkallezim mbi-linear

from wealth creation and innovation,

nga krijimi i pasurise dhe zbulimet e reja,

then indeed you get, from the same theory,

atehere vertet nxjerr nga po e njejta teori

a beautiful rising exponential curve -- lovely.

nje grafik rrites eksponencial -- shume e bukur.

And in fact, if you compare it to data,

Dhe ne fakt, nese e krahason kete grafik me te dhenat

it fits very well

perputhet teresisht

with the development of cities and economies.

me zhvillimin e qyteteve dhe te ekonomise.

But it has a terrible catch,

Por ka nje aspekt te tmerrshem.

and the catch

Dhe ai eshte qe

is that this system is destined to collapse.

ky sistem eshte i destinuar te shembet.

And it's destined to collapse for many reasons --

Dhe eshte i destinuar te shembet per shume arsye --

kind of Malthusian reasons -- that you run out of resources.

arsye pak a shume Maltusiane -- se mbarojne burimet.

And how do you avoid that? Well we've done it before.

Po si ta shmangim kete? Epo, e kemi shmangur dhe me pare.

What we do is,

Ajo qe bejme eshte qe

as we grow and we approach the collapse,

ndersa rritemi dhe i afrohemi pikes se kolapsit,

a major innovation takes place

nje zbulim i madh ndodh

and we start over again,

dhe krejt procesi fillon nga fillimi.

and we start over again as we approach the next one, and so on.

Dhe pastaj fillojme prape nga fillimi ndersa i afrohemi kolapsit tjeter, e keshtu vazhdon.

So there's this continuous cycle of innovation

Pra, eshte ky cikel i vazhdueshem zbulimesh

that is necessary

qe eshte i nevojshem

in order to sustain growth and avoid collapse.

per te mbajtur gjalle rritjen dhe shmangur kolapsin.

The catch, however, to this

Problemi me kete, sidoqofte,

is that you have to innovate

eshte se te duhet te zbulosh

faster and faster and faster.

gjithmone e me shpejt e me shpejt.

So the image

Imazhi i kesaj

is that we're not only on a treadmill that's going faster,

eshte qe jo vetem qe gjendemi ne nje piste vrapimi automatike qe po shkon me shpejt,

but we have to change the treadmill faster and faster.

por qe edhe na duhet ta ndryshojme ate me shpejt e me shpejt.

We have to accelerate on a continuous basis.

Na duhet te nxitojme ne menyre te vazhdueshme.

And the question is: Can we, as socio-economic beings,

Dhe ceshtja eshte: A mundemi ne, si qenie shoqeroro-ekonomike,

avoid a heart attack?

ta shmangim nje sulm ne zemer?

So lastly, I'm going to finish up in this last minute or two

Se fundmi, do ti mbyll keto nje ose dy minuta te mbetura

asking about companies.

duket shtruar pyetjen per kompanite.

See companies, they scale.

Edhe kompanite shkallezohen.

The top one, in fact, is Walmart on the right.

Ajo me siper eshte, ne fakt eshte Walmart ne te djathte.

It's the same plot.

Eshte i njejti grafik.

This happens to be income and assets

Ketu tregohen te ardhurat dhe asetet

versus the size of the company as denoted by its number of employees.

perkundrejt madhesise se kompanise te matur ne baze te numrit te punonjesve.

We could use sales, anything you like.

Mund te kishim perdorur dhe shitjet, cfaredo qe te donim.

There it is: after some little fluctuations at the beginning,

Ja ku eshte: pas disa luhatjeve te vogla ne fillim,

when companies are innovating,

kur kompanite bejne zbulime

they scale beautifully.

ato shkallezohen ne menyre shume te bukur.

And we've looked at 23,000 companies

Dhe kemi vezhguar rreth 23 mije kompani

in the United States, may I say.

ne Shtetet e Bashkuara, me duhet te them.

And I'm only showing you a little bit of this.

Dhe une po ju tregoj vetem nje pjese te vogel te kesaj.

What is astonishing about companies

Ajo cka eshte e habitshme rreth kompanive

is that they scale sublinearly

eshte se ato shkallezohen ne menyre nenlineare

like biology,

ashtu si biologjia,

indicating that they're dominated,

duke treguar se ato dominohen,

not by super-linear

jo nga idete dhe zbulimet

innovation and ideas;

mbi-lineare;

they become dominated

ato dominohen

by economies of scale.

nga ekonomite e shkallezimit.

In that interpretation,

Ne kete interpretim,

by bureaucracy and administration,

nga burokracia dhe administrimi,

and they do it beautifully, may I say.

dhe kjo ndodh ne menyre shume te bukur, me duhet te them.

So if you tell me the size of some company, some small company,

Pra nese me tregoni madhesine e nje kompanie, te nje kompanie te vogel,

I could have predicted the size of Walmart.

une do te mund te kisha parashikuar madhesine e Walmart-it.

If it has this sublinear scaling,

Nese ka kete shkallezim nenlinear,

the theory says

teoria na sugjeron

we should have sigmoidal growth.

se duhet te kemi rritje sigmoidale.

There's Walmart. Doesn't look very sigmoidal.

Ja ku eshte Walmart. Nuk duket dhe aq sigmoidale.

That's what we like, hockey sticks.

Ja cfare na pelqen ne, shkopinjte e hokejit.

But you notice, I've cheated,

Por vini re, une kam bere pak me hile,

because I've only gone up to '94.

sepse kam shkuar deri ne vitin '94.

Let's go up to 2008.

Le te shkojme deri ne vitin 2008.

That red line is from the theory.

Ajo vija e kuqe eshte nga teoria.

So if I'd have done this in 1994,

Pra, nese do e grafikoja kete ne 1994,

I could have predicted what Walmart would be now.

do mund ta parashikoja si do te ishte Walmart-i tani.

And then this is repeated

Dhe pastaj kjo mund te perseritet

across the entire spectrum of companies.

per te gjithe spektrin e kompanive.

There they are. That's 23,000 companies.

Ja ku jane te gjitha. Te 23 mije kompanite.

They all start looking like hockey sticks,

Ata te gjithe fillojne duke u dukur si shkopinj hokeji,

they all bend over,

pastaj te gjithe perkulen,

and they all die like you and me.

dhe te gjithe vdesin si une e ti.

Thank you.

Faleminderit.

(Applause)

(Duartrokitje)