Geoffrey West: The surprising math of cities and corporations

Translator: Alvaro Moya Reviewer: Jone Aliri Lazcano

Cities are the crucible of civilization.

Hiriak zibilizazioen arragoak dira.

They have been expanding,

Handitu egin dira,

urbanization has been expanding,

urbanizazioak hedatu egin ditu,

at an exponential rate in the last 200 years

tasa esponentzial batera azkenengo 200 urteetan,

so that by the second part of this century,

honela, mende honetako bigarren zatian

the planet will be completely dominated

hiriek zeharo nagusitu zuten

by cities.

Lurra.

Cities are the origins of global warming,

Hirietan mundu mailako berotzea, besteak beste, sortzen dira,

impact on the environment,

kutsadura, gaixotasunak,

health, pollution, disease,

ingurumen-inpaktua,

finance,

finantzak,

economies, energy --

ekonomia, energia ....

they're all problems

Arazo guzti hauek

that are confronted by having cities.

hirien izateak sortuak dira

That's where all these problems come from.

Hortik dator dena.

And the tsunami of problems that we feel we're facing

Aurre egiten dugun arazo-mordoa

in terms of sustainability questions

iraunkortasuna dela eta

are actually a reflection

(honen) isla da

of the exponential increase

urbanizazioaren hazkunde

in urbanization across the planet.

esponentzialarena, mundu osoan zehar.

Here's some numbers.

Hona hemen datu batzuk

Two hundred years ago, the United States

Orain dela 200 urte, Estatu Batuetan

was less than a few percent urbanized.

ehuneko txiki bat soilik hiritartu zen.

It's now more than 82 percent.

Orain %82a hiritartuta dago.

The planet has crossed the halfway mark a few years ago.

Lurrak orain dela urte batzuk lerroa gurutzatu egin du.

China's building 300 new cities

Txinak 300 hiri berrik eraikiko ditu.

in the next 20 years.

hurrengo 20 urteetan.

Now listen to this:

Adi egon:

Every week for the foreseeable future,

astero, aurreikus daitekeen geroan

until 2050,

2050 urte arte,

every week more than a million people

astero, milioi bat pertsona baino gehiago

are being added to our cities.

gure hirietara gehituko dira.

This is going to affect everything.

Honek guztioi eragingo digu.

Everybody in this room, if you stay alive,

Aretoan dauden guztiei, bizirik badaude,

is going to be affected

eragingo die

by what's happening in cities

hirietan gertatutakoak

in this extraordinary phenomenon.

gertakari harrigarriarekin.

However, cities,

Haatik, hiriek,

despite having this negative aspect to them,

ezezko itxurak izan arren,

are also the solution.

irtenbideak ere badauzkate.

Because cities are the vacuum cleaners and the magnets

xurgagailuak eta imanak direlako

that have sucked up creative people,

(hiriek) sortzaileak erakartzen dituzte

creating ideas, innovation,

ideiak, berrikuntzak sortzeko,

wealth and so on.

aberastasuna eta abar.

So we have this kind of dual nature.

(Hiriek) natura dual dute.

And so there's an urgent need

Badago premiazko beharra

for a scientific theory of cities.

hirien teoria zientifikoa sortzeko (beharra)

Now these are my comrades in arms.

Hauexek dira nire gudakideak.

This work has been done with an extraordinary group of people,

Pertsona harrigarrien talde batekin egin dugu lana,

and they've done all the work,

hauek lan osoa egin dute;

and I'm the great bullshitter

neu naiz harroputza

that tries to bring it all together.

dena biltzen dituenak.

(Laughter)

(Algarak)

So here's the problem: This is what we all want.

Hona hemen arazoa; hau da guztiok nahi duguna.

The 10 billion people on the planet in 2050

2050. urteko lurraren 10.000 milioi pertsonek

want to live in places like this,

hau bezalako lekuetan bizi nahi dute,

having things like this,

hauek bezalako gauzekin,

doing things like this,

hauek bezalako gauzak egiten,

with economies that are growing like this,

hau bezala handituz doan ekonomiarekin,

not realizing that entropy

(haiek) konturatu gabe entropiak berak

produces things like this,

hau bezalako gauzak sortzen dituela,

this, this

hau bezalakoak

and this.

eta hau bezalakoa.

And the question is:

Eta gure buruari galdetzen diogu

Is that what Edinburgh and London and New York

Edimburgo, Londres eta New York

are going to look like in 2050,

horrela ikusiko dira 2050. urtean?

or is it going to be this?

edo, horrela?

That's the question.

Hori da gakoa.

I must say, many of the indicators

Nik uste dut, adierazle batzuen arabera,

look like this is what it's going to look like,

horrela ikusiko direla.

but let's talk about it.

Hortaz hitz egin dezagun.

So my provocative statement

Adierazi behar dut

is that we desperately need a serious scientific theory of cities.

hirien premiazko teoria zientifiko bat behar dugula.

And scientific theory means quantifiable --

Teoria zientifikoak esan nahi du neurgarria izatea,

relying on underlying generic principles

printzipio orokorren azpikoren mendekoa dena

that can be made into a predictive framework.

eta predikzioak egiten laguntzen diguna.

That's the quest.

Hori da gakoa.

Is that conceivable?

Posible ote da?

Are there universal laws?

Mundu-mailako legeak badaude?

So here's two questions

Bi galderak daude

that I have in my head when I think about this problem.

burura datozkidanak horretaz pentsatzen dudan bakoitzean.

The first is:

Lehenengoa da:

Are cities part of biology?

Hiriak biologiaren zatiak al dira?

Is London a great big whale?

Londres balea handia izango ote da?

Is Edinburgh a horse?

Edimburgo zaldia izango ote da?

Is Microsoft a great big anthill?

Microsoft izugarrizko inurritegia izango ote da?

What do we learn from that?

Zer ondorioztatzen da hortik?

We use them metaphorically --

Modu metaforikoan hitz egiten,

the DNA of a company, the metabolism of a city, and so on --

Enpresa baten DNA, hiri baten metabolismoa eta hau dena,

is that just bullshit, metaphorical bullshit,

hitzontzikeri metaforikoak besterik ez dira?

or is there serious substance to it?

edo seriotan har daitezke?

And if that is the case,

Eta horrela bada,

how come that it's very hard to kill a city?

zergatik hain zaila den hiri bat akabatzea?

You could drop an atom bomb on a city,

Lehergailu atomikoa bota ahalko diote

and 30 years later it's surviving.

eta 30 urte barru jarraituko du bizirik.

Very few cities fail.

Oso hiri gutxik porrot egiten dute.

All companies die, all companies.

Enpresa guztiek porrot egiten dute.

And if you have a serious theory, you should be able to predict

Teoria on batekin aurretik jakin liteke

when Google is going to go bust.

noiz porrot egingo duen Google-k

So is that just another version

Hori beste bertsio bat izango da

of this?

honekoa?

Well we understand this very well.

Hau oso ondo ulertzen da.

That is, you ask any generic question about this --

Hots, galdera generikoak egiten baditut horretaz:

how many trees of a given size,

zenbat arbola tamainaren arabera?

how many branches of a given size does a tree have,

zenbat halako tamaniako adarrak ditu arbola batek?

how many leaves,

zenbat hosto?

what is the energy flowing through each branch,

zenbat energiak zeharkatzen du adar bakoitza?

what is the size of the canopy,

zer tamaina du bere hosto-kapak?

what is its growth, what is its mortality?

zein da bere hazkundea? zein da heriotza-tasa?

We have a mathematical framework

Eskema matematikoa daukagu

based on generic universal principles

mundu-mailako printzipio generikoetan oinarrituta

that can answer those questions.

galdera guzti horiek konpontzeko.

And the idea is can we do the same for this?

Ideia da: honekin gauza bera egin dezakegu?

So the route in is recognizing

Onarpenarekin lortzen da

one of the most extraordinary things about life,

bizitzaren gauza harrigarrienetariko batena;

is that it is scalable,

hots, bere eskalarekin bat datorrela

it works over an extraordinary range.

oso tarte zabal batean.

This is just a tiny range actually:

Hau oso aplikazio murriztua da, benetan;

It's us mammals;

hauexek gara gu, ugaztunok,

we're one of these.

talde honen parte hartzen dugunok.

The same principles, the same dynamics,

Printzipio berberak, dinamika berbera,

the same organization is at work

antolaketa berberak funtzionatzen du

in all of these, including us,

ugaztun guztietan, gu barne

and it can scale over a range of 100 million in size.

eta 100 milioi aldiz handitu daiteke.

And that is one of the main reasons

Hau da arrazoi inportantenetariko bat adierazteko

life is so resilient and robust --

zeren izaki bizidunak hain gogorrak eta erresilienteak diren,

scalability.

eskalarekin bat etortzeagatik.

We're going to discuss that in a moment more.

Berehala horretaz hitz egingo dugu.

But you know, at a local level,

Jakin badakigu bertako mailan

you scale; everybody in this room is scaled.

dena handitu daitekeela: gela honetako guztiok eskalarekin bat gatoz.

That's called growth.

Hazkundea deitzen dugu.

Here's how you grew.

Begira ezazue nola hazi.

Rat, that's a rat -- could have been you.

Hau arratoia da. Zuetariko bat izan liteke.

We're all pretty much the same.

Oso berdinak gara.

And you see, you're very familiar with this.

Ikus dezakegu hau oso ezaguna zaigula.

You grow very quickly and then you stop.

Izaki bat oso azkar hazten da eta halako batean gelditzen da.

And that line there

Kurba hori

is a prediction from the same theory,

predikzio bat da, teori berekoa,

based on the same principles,

printzipio berdinetan oinarrituta,

that describes that forest.

baso bat deskribatzen den bezalakoa.

And here it is for the growth of a rat,

Hau arratoi baten hazkunde-kurba da.

and those points on there are data points.

Puntuek datu errealak azpimarratzen dituzte.

This is just the weight versus the age.

Horrek erakusten du pisua adinaren arabera.

And you see, it stops growing.

Ikus ezazue nola hazkundea gelditzen den.

Very, very good for biology --

Oso ona biologiarako,

also one of the reasons for its great resilience.

bere erresilientzia handiaren arrazoi inportantenetariko bat dela.

Very, very bad

Baina oso txarto

for economies and companies and cities

ekonomiarako, enpresetarako eta hirietarako

in our present paradigm.

gaur egungo ereduan.

This is what we believe.

Hori da guk uste duguna.

This is what our whole economy

Hau da ekonomia guztiek

is thrusting upon us,

egitera behartzen gaituzten,

particularly illustrated in that left-hand corner:

ezkerrako bazterrean ikus daitekenez,

hockey sticks.

hockey-makilak bezalakoak.

This is a bunch of software companies --

Hau da programazio informatikoen konpaniei buruz

and what it is is their revenue versus their age --

diru-sarrerak ikusten dira adinaren arabera,

all zooming away,

oso azkar aurreratzen dira

and everybody making millions and billions of dollars.

eta guztiek milioika dolar irabazten dituzte.

Okay, so how do we understand this?

Aizue, nola ulertzen da hau guztia?

So let's first talk about biology.

Lehenengo eta behin, biologiari buruz hitz egin dezagun.

This is explicitly showing you

Horrek argi eta garbi erakusten du,

how things scale,

gauzen eskala nola aldatzen den.

and this is a truly remarkable graph.

Oso grafika zinez aipagarria.

What is plotted here is metabolic rate --

Hemen ikusten duguna tasa-metabolikoa da,

how much energy you need per day to stay alive --

zenbat energia behar den egun batean bizirik eusteko,

versus your weight, your mass,

pisu edo masaren arabera,

for all of us bunch of organisms.

gu bezalako izaki bizidunentzat.

And it's plotted in this funny way by going up by factors of 10,

Oso forma arraroa du, hamarreko faktorean handituz;

otherwise you couldn't get everything on the graph.

horrela ez balitz, grafikan ez litzateke sartuko.

And what you see if you plot it

Hau egitean ikusten dena,

in this slightly curious way

forma bitxi horrekin, zera da,

is that everybody lies on the same line.

guztiak lerro berean sartzen direla.

Despite the fact that this is the most complex and diverse system

Sistema hau konplexuena eta diferenteena izan arren

in the universe,

Unibertso osoan,

there's an extraordinary simplicity

guztiz erraza da

being expressed by this.

horrela azaltzean.

It's particularly astonishing

Guztiz harrigarria da

because each one of these organisms,

organismo hauetako bakoitzak

each subsystem, each cell type, each gene,

sistema-azpiko bakoitzak, zelula-mota bakoitzak, gen bakoitzak,

has evolved in its own unique environmental niche

euren txoko ekologiko eboluzionatu du,

with its own unique history.

euren istoria bakarreko propioarekin,

And yet, despite all of that Darwinian evolution

Eta, eboluzio osoa suertatu arren

and natural selection,

eta Darwin-eko hautaketa naturala kontuan hartuta ere bai

they've been constrained to lie on a line.

guztiak lerro batean kokatu egin dira.

Something else is going on.

Eta are gehiago.

Before I talk about that,

Horretaz hitz egin baino lehen,

I've written down at the bottom there

beheko aldean zerbait gehitu dut,

the slope of this curve, this straight line.

zuzen honen aldapa.

It's three-quarters, roughly,

gutxi gorabehera 3/4 da,

which is less than one -- and we call that sublinear.

1 baino gutxiago. Lineal-azpikoa deitzen dugu.

And here's the point of that.

Eta horrek esan nahi du:

It says that, if it were linear,

Lineal izango balitz,

the steepest slope,

aldapa handiagorekin,

then doubling the size

bere tamaina bikoiztean

you would require double the amount of energy.

energia bikoitza behar izango litzateke.

But it's sublinear, and what that translates into

Baina lineal-azpikoa denez, horrek esan nahi du

is that, if you double the size of the organism,

organismoaren tamaina bikoizten bada,

you actually only need 75 percent more energy.

energia gehigarrizko %75a bakarrik behar izango da.

So a wonderful thing about all of biology

Biologiaren aparteko ezaugarria da

is that it expresses an extraordinary economy of scale.

eskala-ekonomia harrigarria existitzen dela.

The bigger you are systematically,

Gero eta sistema handiagoa,

according to very well-defined rules,

araudien arabera,

less energy per capita.

unitate bakoitzeko gero eta energia gutxiago.

Now any physiological variable you can think of,

Aldagai fisiolologikoa imajinagarri batentzat,

any life history event you can think of,

pentsa dezakegun bizitzaren gertakizun batentzat,

if you plot it this way, looks like this.

hau bezalako grafika egiten bada, horrela ikusiko da.

There is an extraordinary regularity.

Harrigarrizko erregulartasuna.

So you tell me the size of a mammal,

Norbaitek ugaztun baten tamaina esaten badit,

I can tell you at the 90 percent level everything about it

erantzungo nioke, %90eko zehaztasunarekin, ugaztun horri buruzko informazio osoa

in terms of its physiology, life history, etc.

bere fisiologiaren eta bizitzaren istorioa, etab.

And the reason for this is because of networks.

Honen azalpena sareak dira.

All of life is controlled by networks --

Sareek dena kontrolatzen dute;

from the intracellular through the multicellular

zelulartekoetatik zelulanitzetara,

through the ecosystem level.

ekosistemen mailak ere bai.

And you're very familiar with these networks.

Zuek ondo ezagutzen dituzue sare horiek.

That's a little thing that lives inside an elephant.

Hau elefante baten barruan bizi den oso gauza txikia da.

And here's the summary of what I'm saying.

Eta hemen dago nik esandakoaren laburpena.

If you take those networks,

Sare hauek hartzen baditut,

this idea of networks,

sareen kontzeptua,

and you apply universal principles,

eta printzipio batzuk ematen badizkiet

mathematizable, universal principles,

zenbatuak eta unibertsalak,

all of these scalings

eskala-aldaketa horiek

and all of these constraints follow,

eta murrizketa horiek betetzen dira,

including the description of the forest,

baso baten deskribapena barne,

the description of your circulatory system,

zirkulazio-sistemakoa

the description within cells.

edo zelularen barrualdekoa.

One of the things I did not stress in that introduction

Sarreran azpimarratu ez dudan ideia bat da

was that, systematically, the pace of life

sistematikoki, bizitzaren erritmoa

decreases as you get bigger.

moteltzen da izaki bat hazi ahala.

Heart rates are slower; you live longer;

Bihotzaren taupadak motelago bihurtzen dira zahartzean,

diffusion of oxygen and resources

oxigenoaren hedatzea

across membranes is slower, etc.

mintzetatik pasatzen diren errekurtsoak ere motelago bihurtzen dira, etab.

The question is: Is any of this true

Galdera da: hau egia izango ote da

for cities and companies?

hirientzat eta enpresentzat?

So is London a scaled up Birmingham,

Londres Birmingham handitua izango ote da?

which is a scaled up Brighton, etc., etc.?

Eta hau Brighton-en handitzea izango ote da, etab?

Is New York a scaled up San Francisco,

New York San Francisco-ren handitzea izango ote da?

which is a scaled up Santa Fe?

Eta hau Santa Fe-ren handitzea?

Don't know. We will discuss that.

Ez dakit. Gero aztertu egingo dugu.

But they are networks,

Baina sareak existitu egiten dira.

and the most important network of cities

Eta hiri baten sarean garrantzi handiena duena,

is you.

zuek zarete.

Cities are just a physical manifestation

Hiriak agerpen fisikoak besterik ez dira

of your interactions,

hirien elkarrenkintzenak

our interactions,

eta gureak;

and the clustering and grouping of individuals.

pilaketak eta izakien elkarteak.

Here's just a symbolic picture of that.

Hau grafika sinbolikoa da.

And here's scaling of cities.

Hemen agertzen dira hiri batzuk eskala desberdinetan.

This shows that in this very simple example,

Adibide arrunt honetan nabaritzen da,

which happens to be a mundane example

garrantzi txikiko adibidea da;

of number of petrol stations

gasolindegien zenbakia

as a function of size --

(hiriaren) tamaniaren arabera,

plotted in the same way as the biology --

biologiaren antzeko taula batean.

you see exactly the same kind of thing.

Berdin-berdina ikusten da.

There is a scaling.

Eskala-efektua badago.

That is that the number of petrol stations in the city

Hots, gasolindegien kopurua

is now given to you

lor daiteke

when you tell me its size.

(hiriaren) tamainaren arabera.

The slope of that is less than linear.

Aldapa lineala baino gutxiagokoa da.

There is an economy of scale.

Eskala-ekonomia dago.

Less petrol stations per capita the bigger you are -- not surprising.

Biztanle bakoitzeko gasolindegi gutxiago, (hiriaren) tamaina handiagoan. Ez da batere harrigarria.

But here's what's surprising.

Baina badator harrigarriena.

It scales in the same way everywhere.

Eskala-aldaketa leku guztietan suertatzen da.

This is just European countries,

Hau da herri europarrentzat,

but you do it in Japan or China or Colombia,

baina Japonian, Txinan edo Kolonbian,

always the same

beti berdin,

with the same kind of economy of scale

eskala-ekonomia berberarekin,

to the same degree.

maila berberarekin.

And any infrastructure you look at --

Guk ikasi genituen azpiegitura-mota guztiak,

whether it's the length of roads, length of electrical lines --

bai errepideen luzera, bai linea elektrikoak,

anything you look at

edozein gaik,

has the same economy of scale scaling in the same way.

eskala-ekonomia bera du, beti berdin.

It's an integrated system

Oso sistema integratua da

that has evolved despite all the planning and so on.

zeinek eboluzionatu duen, plangintzak egin arren.

But even more surprising

Baina are harrigarriagoa da

is if you look at socio-economic quantities,

parametro sozioekonomikoak ikasten direnean,

quantities that have no analog in biology,

datu horiek ez daukate parekotasunik biologian,

that have evolved when we started forming communities

(haiek) eboluzionatu egin dira giza-erkidegoak martxan jarri zirenetik

eight to 10,000 years ago.

orain dela 8.000 edo 10.000 urte.

The top one is wages as a function of size

Lehenegoa da soldatak tamainaren arabera,

plotted in the same way.

grafika berean.

And the bottom one is you lot --

Eta azkena da zuena,

super-creatives plotted in the same way.

sortzeko ahalmena daukaten pertsonena.

And what you see

Nabaritzen dena

is a scaling phenomenon.

eskala-gertakaria da.

But most important in this,

Hemen inportateena da

the exponent, the analog to that three-quarters

3/4 antzeko adierazlea

for the metabolic rate,

tasa metabolikoaren kasuan,

is bigger than one -- it's about 1.15 to 1.2.

(orain) 1 baino gehiagokoa da; gutxi gora behera 1,15-tik 1,2-ra

Here it is,

Hemen dago

which says that the bigger you are

eta gero eta handiagoa denean,

the more you have per capita, unlike biology --

BPG handiagoa dago, biologia ez bezala,

higher wages, more super-creative people per capita as you get bigger,

soldata handiagoak, sortzeko ahalmen daukaten pertsona gehiago

more patents per capita, more crime per capita.

biztanle bakoitzeko patente gehiago, krimen-kopuru gehiago.

And we've looked at everything:

Den-dena aztertu ditugu:

more AIDS cases, flu, etc.

HIES-aren kasuak, gripe, etab

And here, they're all plotted together.

Eta hemen daude grafika bakar batean.

Just to show you what we plotted,

Hemen hauxe sartu ditugu

here is income, GDP --

diru-sarrerak, BPG,

GDP of the city --

hiri baten BPG,

crime and patents all on one graph.

kriminalitatea, patenteak, den-dena grafika berean.

And you can see, they all follow the same line.

Eta, ikusten den bezala, datu guztiak lerro berean inguruan.

And here's the statement.

Hau da adierazpena.

If you double the size of a city from 100,000 to 200,000,

Hiriaren tamaina bikoiztea, 100.000 biztanleetatik 200.000-etara,

from a million to two million, 10 to 20 million,

milio batetik 2 milioetara, 10 milioetatik 20 milioietara,

it doesn't matter,

berdin da,

then systematically

sistematikoki

you get a 15 percent increase

handitzearen %15a lortzen da

in wages, wealth, number of AIDS cases,

soldatetan, aberastasunean, HIESaren kasuetan,

number of police,

polizien zenbakian,

anything you can think of.

edonork imajina lezakeena.

It goes up by 15 percent,

%15-tan gora joaten da.

and you have a 15 percent savings

Aurreztien %15a ere lortzen da

on the infrastructure.

azpiegituretan.

This, no doubt, is the reason

Dudarik gabe hau da arrazoia

why a million people a week are gathering in cities.

zeren aste bakoitzak hirien populazioa milioi batean hazten diren,

Because they think that all those wonderful things --

Gauza harrigarri guzti hauek ...

like creative people, wealth, income --

sortzaileak, aberastasuna, diru-sarrerak,

is what attracts them,

erakargarriak dira

forgetting about the ugly and the bad.

eta txarra eta itsusia ahaztuarazten dituzte.

What is the reason for this?

Eta, zein da arrazoia?

Well I don't have time to tell you about all the mathematics,

Ez daukat denbora nahikorik termino matematikotan hitz egin dezan,

but underlying this is the social networks,

baina hau guztien azpitik sare sozialak daude,

because this is a universal phenomenon.

mundu mailako gertakariak dira.

This 15 percent rule

%15-en arau hau

is true

baliogarria da

no matter where you are on the planet --

lurraren edozein lekutan egon arren

Japan, Chile,

Japonia, Txile,

Portugal, Scotland, doesn't matter.

Portugal, Eskozia, berdin da.

Always, all the data shows it's the same,

Beti, datu guztiek gauza bera erakusten dute,

despite the fact that these cities have evolved independently.

hiri bakoitzaren eboluzioa kontuan hartu arren.

Something universal is going on.

Mundu mailako gertakaria gertatzen da.

The universality, to repeat, is us --

Gu geu unibertsalak gara, berriro esaten dut,

that we are the city.

gu geu hiria gara.

And it is our interactions and the clustering of those interactions.

Gure elkarrenkintzak gara, gure elkarrekintzen elkarketak.

So there it is, I've said it again.

Hemen dago, berriro.

So if it is those networks and their mathematical structure,

Sare guzti horiek dira eta euren egitura matematikoa.

unlike biology, which had sublinear scaling,

Alde batetik biologia bere eskala lineal-azpikoekin,

economies of scale,

bere eskala-ekonomia,

you had the slowing of the pace of life

eta bizitzaren osoan zeharkako erritmo motelagoa

as you get bigger.

hazi ahala.

If it's social networks with super-linear scaling --

Beste aldetik, sare sozialak, euren eskala gain-linealarekin;

more per capita --

biztanle bakoitzeko kantitate handiagorekin;

then the theory says

teoriak esaten du

that you increase the pace of life.

bizi-erritmoa handitzen dela.

The bigger you are, life gets faster.

Hazkundearekin, bizitza arinago doa.

On the left is the heart rate showing biology.

Ezkerrean, bihotzeko erritmoa islatzen da.

On the right is the speed of walking

Eta eskuinean, abiadura ibiltzean

in a bunch of European cities,

hiri europar batzuetan,

showing that increase.

eta handipena ikusten da.

Lastly, I want to talk about growth.

Amaitzeko, hazkundeari buruz hitz egin nahi dut.

This is what we had in biology, just to repeat.

Berriro esango dut: hau da biologian ikusten dena.

Economies of scale

Eskala-ekonomiek

gave rise to this sigmoidal behavior.

S itxurako portaera hori sortzen dute.

You grow fast and then stop --

Azkar hazten gara eta gero gelditzen gara;

part of our resilience.

gure erresilientziaren zatia besterik ez da.

That would be bad for economies and cities.

Hori bai hirientzat, bai ekonomiarentzat txarra izango litzateke.

And indeed, one of the wonderful things about the theory

Baina teoria honen ezaugarri onenetariko bat da

is that if you have super-linear scaling

edonork eskala gain-lineala badu

from wealth creation and innovation,

abarastasunaren sormenarako eta berrikuntzarako,

then indeed you get, from the same theory,

orduan, teoriaren arabera, lortzen da,

a beautiful rising exponential curve -- lovely.

goranzko kurba esponentzial ederra, xarmagarria.

And in fact, if you compare it to data,

Eta datuekin konparatzen bada,

it fits very well

oso ondo egokitzen da

with the development of cities and economies.

hirien eta ekonomiaren garapenarekin.

But it has a terrible catch,

Baina arazo bat dago,

and the catch

hau da

is that this system is destined to collapse.

sistema kolapsatzear dagoela.

And it's destined to collapse for many reasons --

Eta hori arrazoi askorengatik gertatzen da;

kind of Malthusian reasons -- that you run out of resources.

Malthus antzekoak; hots, baliabideak agortuko dira.

And how do you avoid that? Well we've done it before.

Eta nola saihes daiteke? Beno, iraganaldian egin da.

What we do is,

Egin dena da

as we grow and we approach the collapse,

hazi eta kolapsora hurbildu ahala,

a major innovation takes place

garrantzitsuzko berrikuntza agertzen da

and we start over again,

eta berriro hasiko gara.

and we start over again as we approach the next one, and so on.

Eta hurrengora hurbiltzean, hasi berriro eta bata bestearen segidan.

So there's this continuous cycle of innovation

Berrikuntzez beteriko segida hau

that is necessary

beharrezkoa da

in order to sustain growth and avoid collapse.

hazkundea mantentzeko eta kolapsoa saihesteko.

The catch, however, to this

Haatik, arazoa da

is that you have to innovate

berritzea guztiz beharrezkoa dela

faster and faster and faster.

arinago, gero eta arinago.

So the image

Irudi bat erabiliz,

is that we're not only on a treadmill that's going faster,

bizkortzeko makina trostari egon ez ezik,

but we have to change the treadmill faster and faster.

baita aldatu behar dugu ere gero eta maizago.

We have to accelerate on a continuous basis.

Bizkortu behar dugu eten gabe.

And the question is: Can we, as socio-economic beings,

Sekulako galdera da: Posible ote da, izaki sozioekonomikoak izanda,

avoid a heart attack?

bihotzeko krisia saihestea?

So lastly, I'm going to finish up in this last minute or two

Amaitzeko, geratzen zaidan pare bat minutu hauetan,

asking about companies.

enpresei buruz galdetzen dut.

See companies, they scale.

Enpresak eskalara egokitzen dira.

The top one, in fact, is Walmart on the right.

Enpresa hau, ondo ezagututa, Walmart da.

It's the same plot.

Grafika berak

This happens to be income and assets

diru-sarrerak eta aktiboa erakusten ditu

versus the size of the company as denoted by its number of employees.

konpainiaren tamainaren arabera, langile zenbakien arabera.

We could use sales, anything you like.

Salmenten tamaina erabil liteke, edo nahi duguna.

There it is: after some little fluctuations at the beginning,

Hor dago, hasierako gorabehera txiki batzuk gertatu ostean,

when companies are innovating,

enpresek berrikuntzak egiten dituztenean,

they scale beautifully.

gero, eskala jarraitzen dute modu onean.

And we've looked at 23,000 companies

23.000 konpainia ikasi ditugu

in the United States, may I say.

Estatu Batuetan.

And I'm only showing you a little bit of this.

Eta zati txiki bat besterik ez dut erakutsi.

What is astonishing about companies

Egoera honen harrigarriena da

is that they scale sublinearly

lineal-azpiko eskala jarraitzen dutela,

like biology,

biologian bezala,

indicating that they're dominated,

eta horrek esan nahi du (zerbaiten) menpe daudela

not by super-linear

ez gain-linealen (menpe),

innovation and ideas;

berrikuntza eta ideiak;

they become dominated

baina (zerbaiten) menpe daude

by economies of scale.

eskala-ekonomien (menpe).

In that interpretation,

Interpretazio honetan,

by bureaucracy and administration,

burokraziaren eta kudeaketaren menpe,

and they do it beautifully, may I say.

bikain dabiltza.

So if you tell me the size of some company, some small company,

Hots, konpainia txiki baten tamaina esaten badidazue,

I could have predicted the size of Walmart.

Walmart-en tamaina aurretik jakin nezakeen.

If it has this sublinear scaling,

lineal-azpiko eskala hau izanez gero,

the theory says

teoriaren arabera,

we should have sigmoidal growth.

S itxurako hazkundea izango genuke.

There's Walmart. Doesn't look very sigmoidal.

Hor dago Walmart. Ez dirudi S itxurakoa.

That's what we like, hockey sticks.

guri gustatzen zaigun bezala, hockey-makila bezalakoa.

But you notice, I've cheated,

Baina konturatu egin zarete trikimailuak egin nituela,

because I've only gone up to '94.

1994 urte arte bakarrik joan nintzelako.

Let's go up to 2008.

2008 urte arte joan gaitezen.

That red line is from the theory.

Lerro gorriak teoria jarraitzen du.

So if I'd have done this in 1994,

Horrela egin banu 1994. urtean

I could have predicted what Walmart would be now.

gaurko Wallmart-en egoera aurretik jakin nezakeen.

And then this is repeated

Eta hau errepikatzen da

across the entire spectrum of companies.

esparru horretako enpresa guztietan.

There they are. That's 23,000 companies.

Han daude. 23.000 konpainiak.

They all start looking like hockey sticks,

Hasieran, guztien itxura hockey-makilakoa da,

they all bend over,

guztiak tolesten dira,

and they all die like you and me.

eta guzti guztiak hil egiten dira, zuek eta ni bezala.

Thank you.

Mila esker

(Applause)

(Txaloak)