Noreena Hertz: How to use experts -- and when not to

Prevodilac: Ivana Veljkovic Lektor: Sandra Gojic

It's Monday morning.

Ponedeljak je ujutru.

In Washington,

U Vašingtonu,

the president of the United States

predsednik SAD-a

is sitting in the Oval Office,

sedi u ovalnom kabinetu,

assessing whether or not

i razmatra da li da

to strike Al Qaeda

napadne Al Kaidu

in Yemen.

u Jemenu.

At Number 10 Downing Street,

U broju 10 Dauning ulice,

David Cameron is trying to work out

Dejvid Kameron pokušava da odluči

whether to cut more public sector jobs

da li da smanji broj poslova u javnom sektoru

in order to stave off a double-dip recession.

da bi odložio recesiju koja ima kratke intrevale ekonomskog oporavka.

In Madrid, Maria Gonzalez

U Madridu, Marija Gonzales

is standing at the door,

stoji na vratima,

listening to her baby crying and crying,

i sluša svoju bebu kako plače i plače.

trying to work out whether she should let it cry

i pokušava da odluči da li da pusti bebu da plače

until it falls asleep

dok se ne uspava

or pick it up and hold it.

ili da je uzme u ruke.

And I am sitting by my father's bedside in hospital,

I ja sedim pored kreveta svoga oca u bolnici,

trying to work out

i pokušavam da odlučim

whether I should let him drink

da li da mu dam da popije

the one-and-a-half-liter bottle of water

litru i po vode iz flaše

that his doctors just came in and said,

jer su doktori upravo ušli i rekli,

"You must make him drink today," --

"Morate ga naterati da ovo popije danas," --

my father's been nil by mouth for a week --

a moj otac već nedelju dana ne sme ništa da uzima oralno --

or whether, by giving him this bottle,

i da li ću ga dajući mu tu flašu

I might actually kill him.

možda ubiti.

We face momentous decisions

Suočavamo sa momentalnim odlukama

with important consequences

koje nose ozbiljne posledice

throughout our lives,

čitavog svog života.

and we have strategies for dealing with these decisions.

I imamo strategije kako bi izašli na kraj sa takvim odlukama.

We talk things over with our friends,

Savetujemo se sa prijateljima,

we scour the Internet,

pretražujemo Internet,

we search through books.

i tražimo po knjigama.

But still,

Ali ipak

even in this age

čak i u ovo doba

of Google and TripAdvisor

Gugla i Trip Advajzora

and Amazon Recommends,

i Amazon preporuka,

it's still experts

još uvek su to eksperti

that we rely upon most --

na koje se najviše oslanjamo --

especially when the stakes are high

pogotovu kada je ulog veliki

and the decision really matters.

i kada su odluke zaista bitne.

Because in a world of data deluge

Zato što u svetu pretrpanom informacijama

and extreme complexity,

i neverovatno komplikovanom svetu

we believe that experts

mi verujemo da eksperti

are more able to process information than we can --

mogu bolje da prerade informacije od nas --

that they are able to come to better conclusions

da su u stanju da dođu do boljih zaključaka

than we could come to on our own.

nego što bi mi sami to mogli.

And in an age

I u današnje vreme,

that is sometimes nowadays frightening

koje je ponekad zastrašujuće

or confusing,

ili zbunjujuće,

we feel reassured

mi se osećamo sigurnije

by the almost parental-like authority

pored gotovo roditeljskog autoriteta

of experts

eksperata

who tell us so clearly what it is

koji nam tako jasno kažu šta je to

we can and cannot do.

što možemo i ne možemo da uradimo.

But I believe

Ali ja verujem

that this is a big problem,

da je to veliki problem,

a problem with potentially dangerous consequences

problem koji nosi potencijlalno opasne posledice

for us as a society,

po nas kao društvo,

as a culture

po našu kulturu

and as individuals.

i nas kao pojedince.

It's not that experts

Ne kažem da eksperti

have not massively contributed to the world --

nisu masivno doprineli svetu --

of course they have.

naravno da jesu.

The problem lies with us:

Problem leži u nama;

we've become addicted to experts.

mi smo postali zavisni od ekspereta.

We've become addicted to their certainty,

Postali smo zavisni od njihove tačnosti,

their assuredness,

uverenosti,

their definitiveness,

definitivnosti,

and in the process,

i u tom procesu

we have ceded our responsibility,

smo ustupili svoju odgovornost,

substituting our intellect

zamenjujući svoj intelekt

and our intelligence

i svoju inteligenciju

for their supposed words of wisdom.

za njihove navodno mudre reči.

We've surrendered our power,

Predali smo svoju moć,

trading off our discomfort

menjajući nelagodnost

with uncertainty

koja ide uz neizvesnost

for the illusion of certainty

za iluziju izvesnosti

that they provide.

koju nam oni daju.

This is no exaggeration.

Ovo nije preterivanje.

In a recent experiment,

U nedavnom eksperimentu,

a group of adults

grupi odraslih ljudi

had their brains scanned in an MRI machine

su skenirani mozgovi na tomografiji magnetne rezonance,

as they were listening to experts speak.

dok su slušali eksperte kako govore.

The results were quite extraordinary.

Rezultati su bili neverovatni.

As they listened to the experts' voices,

Dok su slušali glasove eksperata,

the independent decision-making parts of their brains

delovi mozga za nezavisno odlučivanje

switched off.

su se isključili.

It literally flat-lined.

Bukvalno je tu bila ravna crta.

And they listened to whatever the experts said

I oni su slušali šta im eksperti kažu

and took their advice, however right or wrong.

i njihove savete, bez obzira da li bili tačni ili netačni.

But experts do get things wrong.

Ali eksperti umeju da pogreše.

Did you know that studies show

Da li ste znali da studije pokazuju

that doctors misdiagnose

da doktori daju pogrešnu dijagnozu

four times out of 10?

4 od 10 puta?

Did you know

Da li ste znali

that if you file your tax returns yourself,

da ako sami podnosite deklaraciju za povraćaj poreza

you're statistically more likely

statistički imate veću verovatnoću da

to be filing them correctly

je popunite tačno

than if you get a tax adviser

nego ako imate poreskog svetnika

to do it for you?

koji će to raditi umesto vas?

And then there's, of course, the example

I naravno tu je i primer

that we're all too aware of:

koga smo svi previše svesni

financial experts

finansijskih eksperata

getting it so wrong

koji su toliko pogrešili

that we're living through the worst recession

da sada živimo u najgoroj recesiji

since the 1930s.

od 1930.

For the sake of our health,

Za dobrobit našeg zdravlja,

our wealth

našeg bogatstva

and our collective security,

i naše kolektivne sigurnosti,

it's imperative that we keep

od velike je važnosti da ostavimo

the independent decision-making parts of our brains

delove naših mozgova zadužene za nezavisno donošenje odluka

switched on.

uključenim.

And I'm saying this as an economist

I ovo govorim kao ekonomista

who, over the past few years,

koji je u poslednjih nekoliko godina

has focused my research

usmerio svoje istraživanje na

on what it is we think

na ono o čemu razmišljamo

and who it is we trust and why,

i kome verujemo i zašto.

but also --

Ali takođe --

and I'm aware of the irony here --

i svesna sam ironije --

as an expert myself,

pošto sam i sama ekspert,

as a professor,

kao profesor,

as somebody who advises prime ministers,

kao neko ko savetuje premijere,

heads of big companies,

vođe velikih kompanija,

international organizations,

međunarodne organizacije,

but an expert who believes

ali ekspert koji veruje

that the role of experts needs to change,

da uloga eksperata mora da se promeni,

that we need to become more open-minded,

da moramo biti otvorenog uma,

more democratic

više demokratični,

and be more open

i biti otvoreniji

to people rebelling against

prema ljudima koji se protive

our points of view.

našem razmišljanju.

So in order to help you understand

Da bih vam pomogla da shvatite

where I'm coming from,

odakle dolazim,

let me bring you into my world,

dozvolite mi da vas dovedem u svoj svet,

the world of experts.

svet eksperata.

Now there are, of course, exceptions,

Naravno, postoje izuzeci,

wonderful, civilization-enhancing exceptions.

divni izuzeci koji doprinose civilizaciji.

But what my research has shown me

Ali ono što mi je moje istraživanje pokazalo

is that experts tend on the whole

je da eksperti imaju običaj da

to form very rigid camps,

formiraju veoma stroge kampove,

that within these camps,

i da u tim kampovima,

a dominant perspective emerges

nastane jedna dominantna perspektiva

that often silences opposition,

koja često ućutka opoziciju,

that experts move with the prevailing winds,

da eksperti misle kao dominantna većina,

often hero-worshipping

često obožavajući kao heroje

their own gurus.

svoje gurue.

Alan Greenspan's proclamations

Alan Grinspenove tvrdnje

that the years of economic growth

da će se ekonomski razvoj

would go on and on,

nastaviti dalje i dalje,

not challenged by his peers,

nisu bile kritikovane od strane njegovih kolega,

until after the crisis, of course.

bar ne pre nastupanja krize naravno.

You see,

Vidite,

we also learn

takođe učimo

that experts are located,

da su eksperti locirani,

are governed,

vođeni,

by the social and cultural norms

socijalnim i kulturološkim normama

of their times --

vremena u kome žive --

whether it be the doctors

bili to doktori

in Victorian England, say,

u viktorijanskoj Engleskoj,

who sent women to asylums

koji su slali žene u azil

for expressing sexual desire,

zato što su pokazivale seksualnu želju,

or the psychiatrists in the United States

ili psihijatri u SAD-u

who, up until 1973,

koji su do 1973,

were still categorizing homosexuality

još uvek kategorizovali homoseksualnost

as a mental illness.

kao mentalnu bolest.

And what all this means

I ono što sve ovo znači

is that paradigms

jeste da se paradigme

take far too long to shift,

jako sporo menjaju,

that complexity and nuance are ignored

da se kompleksnost i nijanse ignorišu,

and also that money talks --

i takođe da novac okreće gde burgija neće --

because we've all seen the evidence

jer smo svi videli dokaze o

of pharmaceutical companies

farmaceutskim kompanijama koje

funding studies of drugs

finansiraju istraživanje o lekovima

that conveniently leave out

i nekako ostavljaju prostor

their worst side effects,

za njihove najgore nuspojave

or studies funded by food companies

ili istraživanja koja finansiraju prehrambene kompanije

of their new products,

o njihovim novim proizvodima

massively exaggerating the health benefits

masovno preterivajući o dobrim uticajima na zdravlje

of the products they're about to bring by market.

proizvoda koje će izneti na tržište.

The study showed that food companies exaggerated

Istraživanje je pokazalo da prehrambene kompanije preuveličaju

typically seven times more

obično sedam puta više

than an independent study.

od nezavisnog istraživanja.

And we've also got to be aware

Mi moramo takođe biti svesni da

that experts, of course,

eksperti, naravno,

also make mistakes.

takođe prave greške.

They make mistakes every single day --

Oni prave greške svakoga dana --

mistakes born out of carelessness.

greške zbog nemarnosti.

A recent study in the Archives of Surgery

Skorašnje istraživanje hirurških arhiva

reported surgeons

je pokazalo da hirurzi

removing healthy ovaries,

uklanjaju zdrave jajnike,

operating on the wrong side of the brain,

operišu pogrešne strane mozga,

carrying out procedures on the wrong hand,

vrše operacije na pogrešnoj šaci,

elbow, eye, foot,

laktu, oku, stopalu,

and also mistakes born out of thinking errors.

i takođe prave greške u mišljenju.

A common thinking error

Učestale greške u mišljenju

of radiologists, for example --

radiologa na primer --

when they look at CT scans --

dok gledaju snimke kompjuterske tomografije --

is that they're overly influenced

oni su pod utiskom

by whatever it is

onoga što je

that the referring physician has said

lekar opšte prakse

that he suspects

rekao da

the patient's problem to be.

može biti pacijentov problem.

So if a radiologist

Tako da ako radiolog

is looking at the scan

gleda snimak

of a patient with suspected pneumonia, say,

pacijenta za koga se sumnja da ima upalu pluća,

what happens is that,

dešava se da

if they see evidence

ako oni vide dokaze

of pneumonia on the scan,

upale pluća na snimku,

they literally stop looking at it --

oni bukvalno više ne gledaju snimak --

thereby missing the tumor

i na taj način ne vide tumor

sitting three inches below

koji se nalazi 7,5 cantimetara niže

on the patient's lungs.

na plućima pacijenta.

I've shared with you so far

Dala sam vam za sada

some insights into the world of experts.

neke uvide u svet eksperata.

These are, of course,

Ovo naravno nije sve

not the only insights I could share,

što mogu da podelim sa vama,

but I hope they give you a clear sense at least

ali se nadam da vam daju sliku

of why we need to stop kowtowing to them,

o tome zašto moramo da prestanemo da im se klanjamo,

why we need to rebel

zašto moramo da se pobunimo,

and why we need to switch

i zašto moramo da uključimo

our independent decision-making capabilities on.

našu sposobnost za nezavisno odlučivanje.

But how can we do this?

Ali kako ćemo to izvesti?

Well for the sake of time,

Zbog malo vremena

I want to focus on just three strategies.

želim da se fokusiram na samo tri strategije.

First, we've got to be ready and willing

Prvo, moramo biti spremni i voljni

to take experts on

da ne uzimamo eksperte zdravo za gotovo

and dispense with this notion of them

i da ne razmišljamo o njima

as modern-day apostles.

kao o apostolima modernog doba.

This doesn't mean having to get a Ph.D.

To ne znači da moramo da doktoriramo

in every single subject,

na svaku moguću temu,

you'll be relieved to hear.

laknuće vam kad to čujete.

But it does mean persisting

Ali to znači da istrajemo

in the face of their inevitable annoyance

kada smo suočeni sa njihovom neizbežnom iziritiranošću

when, for example,

kada, na primer,

we want them to explain things to us

želimo da objasnimo sebi neke stvari

in language that we can actually understand.

jezikom koji mi zapravo možemo da razumemo.

Why was it that, when I had an operation,

Zašto je, kada sam imala operaciju

my doctor said to me,

moj doktor meni rekao,

"Beware, Ms. Hertz,

"Pazite se, gospođice Herc,

of hyperpyrexia,"

hiperpireksije,"

when he could have just as easily said,

kada je mogao jednostavno da mi kaže

"Watch out for a high fever."

pazite se visoke temperature?

You see, being ready to take experts on

Vidite, biti spreman da razmatrate mišljenje eksperata

is about also being willing

znači biti voljan

to dig behind their graphs,

da gledate između njihovih grafikona,

their equations, their forecasts,

njihovih jednačina, njihovih prognoza,

their prophecies,

njihovih proročanstava,

and being armed with the questions to do that --

i biti naoružan pitanjima kako da to učinimo --

questions like:

pitanjima kao što su:

What are the assumptions that underpin this?

Koje su pretpostavke koje stoje iza ovoga?

What is the evidence upon which this is based?

Koji su dokazi na kojima je ovo zasnovano?

What has your investigation focused on?

Na čemu se fokusira vaše istraživanje?

And what has it ignored?

I šta je ono ignorislao?

It recently came out

Skoro je objavljeno

that experts trialing drugs

da eksperti koji testiraju lekove

before they come to market

pre nego što izađu na tržište

typically trial drugs

obično testiraju lekove

first, primarily on male animals

prvo prevashodno na mužjacima životinja

and then, primarily on men.

a zatim prevashodno na muškarcima.

It seems that they've somehow overlooked the fact

Izgleda da su nekako prevideli činjenicu

that over half the world's population are women.

da preko polovine populacije čine žene.

And women have drawn the short medical straw

I žene su izvukle deblji kraj

because it now turns out that many of these drugs

jer se sada ispostavlja da mnogi od ovih lekova

don't work nearly as well on women

ne deluju ni približno dobro na žene

as they do on men --

kao na muškarce --

and the drugs that do work well work so well

i lekovi koji deluju, deluju tako dobro

that they're actively harmful for women to take.

da su aktivno štetni po žene.

Being a rebel is about recognizing

Biti buntovnik znači prepoznati

that experts' assumptions

da pretpostavke eksperata

and their methodologies

i njihova metodologija

can easily be flawed.

može lako da bude pogrešna.

Second,

Drugo,

we need to create the space

moramo ostaviti prostora

for what I call "managed dissent."

za ono što ja nazivam konstruktivnim neslaganjem.

If we are to shift paradigms,

Ako ćemo menjati obrazce,

if we are to make breakthroughs,

ako ćemo probijati granice,

if we are to destroy myths,

ako ćemo rušiti mitove,

we need to create an environment

moramo stvoriti sredinu

in which expert ideas are battling it out,

u kojoj će ideje eksperata morati da se bore za cilj,

in which we're bringing in

u kojoj ćemo uneti

new, diverse, discordant, heretical views

nove, različite, neslagajuće, heretičke stavove

into the discussion,

u diskusiju,

fearlessly,

neustrašivo,

in the knowledge that progress comes about,

sa znanjem da napredak proizilazi,

not only from the creation of ideas,

ne samo iz stvaranja ideja

but also from their destruction --

već i iz njihovog rušenja --

and also from the knowledge

i iz znanja

that, by surrounding ourselves

da tako što ćemo sebe okružiti

by divergent, discordant,

divergentnim, neslagajućim

heretical views.

heretičkim pogledima na stvari

All the research now shows us

sva istraživanja sada pokazuju

that this actually makes us smarter.

da nas to zapravo čini pametnijima.

Encouraging dissent is a rebellious notion

Ohrabrivanje neslaganja je buntovnička ideja

because it goes against our very instincts,

jer se suprotstavlja svakom našem instinktu

which are to surround ourselves

da se okružimo

with opinions and advice

mišljenjima i savetima

that we already believe

za koje već verujemo

or want to be true.

i za koje želimo da budu tačni.

And that's why I talk about the need

I zato govorim o potrebi

to actively manage dissent.

za aktivnim konstruktivnim neslaganjem.

Google CEO Eric Schmidt

Izvršni menadžer Gugla Erik Šmit

is a practical practitioner

praktično primenjuje

of this philosophy.

ovu filozofiju.

In meetings, he looks out for the person in the room --

Na sastancima, on traži osobu u prostoriji --

arms crossed, looking a bit bemused --

sa prekrštenim rukama i koja izgleda odsutno --

and draws them into the discussion,

i uvlači ga u diskusiju,

trying to see if they indeed are

da vidi da li je on zaista

the person with a different opinion,

osoba drugačijeg mišljenja,

so that they have dissent within the room.

da bi u prostoriji imali nekoga ko se ne slaže.

Managing dissent

Konstruktivno neslaganje

is about recognizing the value

je o prepoznavanju vrednosti

of disagreement, discord

neslaganja, neusaglašenosti

and difference.

i različitosti.

But we need to go even further.

Ali moramo ići još dalje.

We need to fundamentally redefine

Moramo iz korena redefinisati

who it is that experts are.

ko su to eskperti.

The conventional notion

Konvencionalno stanovište

is that experts are people

kaže da su eksperti ljudi

with advanced degrees,

sa visokim stepenima,

fancy titles, diplomas,

zvučnim titulama, diplomama,

best-selling books --

najprodavanijim knjigama --

high-status individuals.

individue sa visokim statusom.

But just imagine

Ali samo zamislite

if we were to junk

ako odbacimo

this notion of expertise

ovo stanovište o ekpertizi

as some sort of elite cadre

kao nekom elitnom klišeu

and instead embrace the notion

i umesto toga prihvatimo stanovište

of democratized expertise --

demokratizovane ekspertize --

whereby expertise was not just the preserve

gde eskpertiza nije samo vezana za

of surgeons and CEO's,

hirurge i izvšne manadžere

but also shop-girls -- yeah.

već i za prodavačice -- da.

Best Buy,

Best Buy,

the consumer electronics company,

komapanija za električne aparate,

gets all its employees --

zadužuje sve svoje zaposlene --

the cleaners, the shop assistants,

čistače, prodavce,

the people in the back office,

ljude iz magacina,

not just its forecasting team --

ne samo svoj tim zadužen za prognoze --

to place bets, yes bets,

da daju procene, da procene,

on things like whether or not

da li će se

a product is going to sell well before Christmas,

proizvod dobro prodavati pre Božića,

on whether customers' new ideas

o tome da li bi nove ideje mušterija

are going to be or should be taken on by the company,

trebalo primeniti u kompaniji,

on whether a project

i da li će se projekat

will come in on time.

sprovesti na vreme.

By leveraging

Poboljšavanjem

and by embracing

i prihvatanjem

the expertise within the company,

eskpertize unutar kompanije,

Best Buy was able to discover, for example,

Best Buy je uspeo da otkrije, na primer,

that the store that it was going to open in China --

da radnja koja je trebalo da se otvori u Kini --

its big, grand store --

njihova velika, ogromna radnja --

was not going to open on time.

neće moći da se otvori na vreme.

Because when it asked its staff,

Zato što kada su pitali svoje osoblje

all its staff, to place their bets

čitavo svoje osoblje, da daju procene

on whether they thought the store would open on time or not,

da li oni misle da će se radnja otvoriti na vreme ili ne,

a group from the finance department

grupa iz odseka za finansije

placed all their chips

se kladila za sve pare

on that not happening.

da se to neće dogoditi.

It turned out that they were aware,

Ispostavilo se da su oni bili svesni,

as no one else within the company was,

kao što niko drugi u kompaniji nije

of a technological blip

tehnološkog iznenađenja

that neither the forecasting experts,

koga ni eksperti procena,

nor the experts on the ground in China,

ni ekspeti na terenu u Kini

were even aware of.

nisu bili svesni.

The strategies

Strategije

that I have discussed this evening --

o kojima sam govorila večeras --

embracing dissent,

prihvatanje neslaganja

taking experts on,

suprotstavljenje eskpertima,

democratizing expertise,

demokratizacija ekspertize,

rebellious strategies --

buntovničke strategije,

are strategies that I think

su strategije za koje ja mislim

would serve us all well to embrace

da će nam biti od ogromne koristi

as we try to deal with the challenges

dok pokušavamo da se borimo sa izazovima

of these very confusing, complex,

ovih veoma zbunjujućih, komplikovanih

difficult times.

teških vremena.

For if we keep

Jer ako zadržimo

our independent decision-making part

svoj deo mozga za nezavisno odlučivanje

of our brains switched on,

uključenim

if we challenge experts, if we're skeptical,

ako kritikujemo eksperte, ako smo skeptični,

if we devolve authority,

ako prenesemo autoritet,

if we are rebellious,

ako smo buntovnici,

but also

ali takođe

if we become much more comfortable

ako prihvatimo

with nuance,

nijanse

uncertainty and doubt,

neizvesnost i sumnju,

and if we allow our experts

i ako dozvolimo svojim ekpsertima

to express themselves

da se izraze

using those terms too,

na isti takav način,

we will set ourselves up

bićemo mnogo bolje

much better

pripremljeni

for the challenges of the 21st century.

za izazove 21 veka.

For now, more than ever,

Jer sada, više nego ikada,

is not the time

nije vreme

to be blindly following,

da slepo pratimo,

blindly accepting,

slepo prihvatamo,

blindly trusting.

slepo verujemo.

Now is the time to face the world

Sada je vreme da se suočimo sa svetom

with eyes wide open --

širom otvorenih očiju --

yes, using experts

da, koristimo eksperte

to help us figure things out, for sure --

da nam pomognu da razumemo svari, naravno --

I don't want to completely do myself out of a job here --

ne želim da sebe kompletno ostavim bez posla --

but being aware

ali da budemo svesni

of their limitations

njihovih ograničenja

and, of course, also our own.

i naravno takođe i svojih.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)