Noreena Hertz: How to use experts -- and when not to

譯者: Joyce Chou 審譯者: Adrienne Lin

It's Monday morning.

某個星期一早上

In Washington,

在華盛頓

the president of the United States

美國總統

is sitting in the Oval Office,

坐在白宮橢圓形辦公室裡

assessing whether or not

評估是否

to strike Al Qaeda

要攻擊在葉門的

in Yemen.

蓋達組織

At Number 10 Downing Street,

在唐寧街十號

David Cameron is trying to work out

大衛卡麥隆(英國首相)試圖要理清

whether to cut more public sector jobs

是否縮編公營事業的工作機會

in order to stave off a double-dip recession.

以避免二次經濟衰退

In Madrid, Maria Gonzalez

在馬德里，一位叫做Maria Gonzalez的母親

is standing at the door,

站在門前

listening to her baby crying and crying,

聽著她的嬰兒不停的哭

trying to work out whether she should let it cry

在想她該讓這孩子繼續哭

until it falls asleep

直到他睡去

or pick it up and hold it.

還是該把他抱起來哄哄他

And I am sitting by my father's bedside in hospital,

而我在醫院，坐在我父親的病床旁

trying to work out

正在想

whether I should let him drink

我是否該讓他喝

the one-and-a-half-liter bottle of water

這一瓶1.5公升的水

that his doctors just came in and said,

因為醫生進來說

"You must make him drink today," --

"你今天一定要逼他喝"

my father's been nil by mouth for a week --

我父親已經一星期無法進食了

or whether, by giving him this bottle,

如果我給他喝這瓶水

I might actually kill him.

我會不會害死他

We face momentous decisions

我們面對很多重大的決定

with important consequences

而且結果都很重要

throughout our lives,

在我們的生活中

and we have strategies for dealing with these decisions.

我們有策略去處理這些決定

We talk things over with our friends,

我們和朋友討論

we scour the Internet,

我們瀏覽網路

we search through books.

我們尋找書本

But still,

但是

even in this age

在這個充斥

of Google and TripAdvisor

Google和TripAdvisor

and Amazon Recommends,

還有Amazon推薦的時代

it's still experts

專家依然是

that we rely upon most --

我們最常依賴的對象

especially when the stakes are high

特別是當風險很高

and the decision really matters.

需要做重大決定的時候

Because in a world of data deluge

因為有大量的數據

and extreme complexity,

和極端的複雜性

we believe that experts

我們相信專家

are more able to process information than we can --

比我們自己更能夠處理這些資訊

that they are able to come to better conclusions

他們比較可以理出一個較好的結論

than we could come to on our own.

比我們自己理出的結論還要好

And in an age

這個時代

that is sometimes nowadays frightening

現在有時令人感到害怕

or confusing,

有時感到困惑

we feel reassured

而我們的安全感來自於

by the almost parental-like authority

可靠的消息來源

of experts

就是專家

who tell us so clearly what it is

他們能清楚的告訴我們

we can and cannot do.

什麼可以做，什麼不能做

But I believe

但我認為

that this is a big problem,

這是一個大問題

a problem with potentially dangerous consequences

因為這樣的後果充滿潛在的危險

for us as a society,

對我們的社會

as a culture

我們的文化

and as individuals.

還有個人都有影響

It's not that experts

專家並不是

have not massively contributed to the world --

沒有為這個世界做出重大貢獻

of course they have.

當然，他們貢獻許多

The problem lies with us:

問題是在我們

we've become addicted to experts.

我們盲從專家的意見

We've become addicted to their certainty,

我們盲從他們的絕對性

their assuredness,

他們的自信

their definitiveness,

他們的確定性

and in the process,

在此過程中

we have ceded our responsibility,

我們交出了自己的責任

substituting our intellect

讓他們取代我們的智慧

and our intelligence

還有我們的資訊解讀能力

for their supposed words of wisdom.

只為了盲從他們所謂的有智慧的話

We've surrendered our power,

我們把自己的能力交付出去

trading off our discomfort

企圖把我們自己

with uncertainty

因為不確定發生的不安

for the illusion of certainty

換成一種確定性的錯覺

that they provide.

由專家提供的錯覺

This is no exaggeration.

這絕不是誇張

In a recent experiment,

在最近一個實驗裡

a group of adults

我們將一群成年人

had their brains scanned in an MRI machine

利用核磁共振造影器去掃描他們的大腦

as they were listening to experts speak.

掃描同時，他們聆聽專家說話

The results were quite extraordinary.

結果令人相當意想不到

As they listened to the experts' voices,

當他們聽到專家的聲音

the independent decision-making parts of their brains

他們大腦裡負責做重要決定的區塊

switched off.

沒有在作用

It literally flat-lined.

呈現平靜的腦波

And they listened to whatever the experts said

不管專家說什麼他們都聽

and took their advice, however right or wrong.

都參考他們的意見，不管對錯

But experts do get things wrong.

但專家也會出錯的

Did you know that studies show

你們知道嗎？有研究指出

that doctors misdiagnose

醫生診斷時

four times out of 10?

每10次會發生4次誤診

Did you know

你們知道嗎？

that if you file your tax returns yourself,

如果你自己申報納稅

you're statistically more likely

統計上你比較可能

to be filing them correctly

正確地填寫資料

than if you get a tax adviser

比起一位稅務諮詢師

to do it for you?

幫你填寫還要正確

And then there's, of course, the example

然後當然還有這個例子

that we're all too aware of:

我們都很注意

financial experts

財經專家

getting it so wrong

錯誤的解讀

that we're living through the worst recession

導致我們正經歷自1930年代以來

since the 1930s.

最嚴重的經濟衰退

For the sake of our health,

為了我們的健康

our wealth

我們的財富

and our collective security,

和我們共同的安全

it's imperative that we keep

我們必須保持

the independent decision-making parts of our brains

大腦獨立作決策的區塊

switched on.

是在作用的

And I'm saying this as an economist

身為一位經濟學家我要說

who, over the past few years,

在過去的幾年

has focused my research

我專注在我的研究

on what it is we think

有關我們的思考

and who it is we trust and why,

還有我們信任誰，為什麼信任他們

but also --

但是

and I'm aware of the irony here --

我也意識到這有點諷刺

as an expert myself,

我自己身為一位專家、

as a professor,

一位教授、

as somebody who advises prime ministers,

一位會提供首相建議、

heads of big companies,

給公司老闆建議、

international organizations,

提供國際組織建議的人

but an expert who believes

但我也相信

that the role of experts needs to change,

專家的角色需要改變

that we need to become more open-minded,

我們對不同意見的接受度要更寬廣

more democratic

更民主

and be more open

也要更開放去看待

to people rebelling against

反對我們

our points of view.

意見的人

So in order to help you understand

為了要讓你們更了解

where I'm coming from,

我的領域

let me bring you into my world,

我將帶你們了解

the world of experts.

專家的世界

Now there are, of course, exceptions,

不過當然有例外

wonderful, civilization-enhancing exceptions.

那種美好、提升知識的例外

But what my research has shown me

但我的研究告訴我

is that experts tend on the whole

專家都試著要

to form very rigid camps,

建立一群死忠擁護者

that within these camps,

這群擁護者

a dominant perspective emerges

讓某觀點變成了主導

that often silences opposition,

常讓反方的聲音因此消失

that experts move with the prevailing winds,

專家就帶動一股流行

often hero-worshipping

通常是英雄式的崇拜

their own gurus.

崇拜他們自己的大師

Alan Greenspan's proclamations

Alan Greenspan(前美國聯準會主席)的言論

that the years of economic growth

說經濟成長

would go on and on,

會持續好幾年

not challenged by his peers,

他的言論在當時沒有被批評

until after the crisis, of course.

直到發生金融危機

You see,

看吧

we also learn

我們也學到

that experts are located,

專家會被侷限

are governed,

會被影響

by the social and cultural norms

受到社會和文化教條的規範

of their times --

自己時代的規範

whether it be the doctors

無論是醫生

in Victorian England, say,

在維多利亞時期

who sent women to asylums

說送婦女到收容所

for expressing sexual desire,

是為減低性慾

or the psychiatrists in the United States

或在美國的精神科醫生

who, up until 1973,

直到1973年

were still categorizing homosexuality

能把同性戀歸類為

as a mental illness.

一種精神疾病

And what all this means

這一切都表示了

is that paradigms

這些準則

take far too long to shift,

要花上很多時間去改變

that complexity and nuance are ignored

原本被忽略的複雜性和細微差別

and also that money talks --

不僅如此，有錢能使鬼推磨

because we've all seen the evidence

我們都知道

of pharmaceutical companies

那些製藥廠商

funding studies of drugs

資助藥品的研究

that conveniently leave out

所以很方便地

their worst side effects,

掩飾掉藥品的副作用

or studies funded by food companies

或是食品廠商贊助

of their new products,

新開發的食品

massively exaggerating the health benefits

過度誇大食品的健康療效

of the products they're about to bring by market.

特別是正要上市的食品

The study showed that food companies exaggerated

研究指出食品公司誇大了

typically seven times more

七倍以上

than an independent study.

和獨立研究比較的話

And we've also got to be aware

我們也注意到

that experts, of course,

專家也是會

also make mistakes.

有出錯的時候

They make mistakes every single day --

他們每天都會出錯

mistakes born out of carelessness.

一個不小心就出錯了

A recent study in the Archives of Surgery

最近的一項外科研究檔案

reported surgeons

說明外科醫生

removing healthy ovaries,

把病人健康的卵巢拿掉

operating on the wrong side of the brain,

進行腦部手術開錯了位置

carrying out procedures on the wrong hand,

開刀時開錯了手

elbow, eye, foot,

開錯手肘、眼睛、腳

and also mistakes born out of thinking errors.

也製造了思維上的錯誤

A common thinking error

普遍的思維錯誤

of radiologists, for example --

例如在放射科

when they look at CT scans --

當他們在看CT掃描時

is that they're overly influenced

都會過分受到

by whatever it is

不管是

that the referring physician has said

病人的前一位醫師所說的

that he suspects

或是他懷疑的

the patient's problem to be.

可能病因的影響

So if a radiologist

所以如果一位放射科醫生

is looking at the scan

看著那掃描片子

of a patient with suspected pneumonia, say,

是一位疑似肺炎病人的片子

what happens is that,

他很可能

if they see evidence

一看到片子上

of pneumonia on the scan,

有肺炎的事實

they literally stop looking at it --

他們直接停止看片子

thereby missing the tumor

因而忽略了腫瘤

sitting three inches below

在下方三英寸的地方

on the patient's lungs.

長在病人的肺裡

I've shared with you so far

目前我跟你們分享的

some insights into the world of experts.

是專家領域裡的一些觀察

These are, of course,

這些當然

not the only insights I could share,

不只是一些我觀察到的

but I hope they give you a clear sense at least

但我希望這能讓你們至少多點了解

of why we need to stop kowtowing to them,

為何我們需要停止對專家唯命是從

why we need to rebel

為何我們需要反制

and why we need to switch

還有為何我們需要

our independent decision-making capabilities on.

讓我們大腦獨立決策的能力作用

But how can we do this?

但我們該怎麼做呢？

Well for the sake of time,

因為時間的關係

I want to focus on just three strategies.

我只談三種策略

First, we've got to be ready and willing

第一：我們必須準備好而且有意願

to take experts on

挑戰專家

and dispense with this notion of them

但不要把專家的話當成

as modern-day apostles.

宗教信仰的教條

This doesn't mean having to get a Ph.D.

這不代表我們必須在

in every single subject,

每個領域上拿博士學位

you'll be relieved to hear.

聽到之後應該鬆了一口氣

But it does mean persisting

但它確實意味著堅持

in the face of their inevitable annoyance

在面對不可避免的煩惱時

when, for example,

例如

we want them to explain things to us

我們需要他們為我們解釋一些事情

in language that we can actually understand.

用我們能了解的話語

Why was it that, when I had an operation,

怎麼說呢，當我需要動手術

my doctor said to me,

我的醫生跟我說

"Beware, Ms. Hertz,

"Hertz小姐，要留意

of hyperpyrexia,"

高熱症的發生"

when he could have just as easily said,

但他其實能簡單的跟我說

"Watch out for a high fever."

要留意是否發高燒？

You see, being ready to take experts on

了解嗎，要挑戰專家

is about also being willing

就是要有意願

to dig behind their graphs,

去了解他們圖表的意義

their equations, their forecasts,

他們的方程式、預測

their prophecies,

他們的預言

and being armed with the questions to do that --

要準備好問題問他們

questions like:

像是問

What are the assumptions that underpin this?

假設基準為何？

What is the evidence upon which this is based?

證據是根據什麼得到的？

What has your investigation focused on?

你們的調查重點是什麼？

And what has it ignored?

為什麼這個因素被忽略？

It recently came out

最近發現

that experts trialing drugs

專家們測試藥品

before they come to market

在上市之前

typically trial drugs

通常藥品測試

first, primarily on male animals

主要是對雄性動物

and then, primarily on men.

接著才對男性做測試

It seems that they've somehow overlooked the fact

看來，他們已經在某種程度上忽略了一個事實

that over half the world's population are women.

這個世界的人口有一半是女性

And women have drawn the short medical straw

女性病患在醫療成功的機率比較小

because it now turns out that many of these drugs

因為大部分的藥物

don't work nearly as well on women

在女性病患身上效果較差

as they do on men --

和男性患者比起來的話

and the drugs that do work well work so well

藥品療效在男性身上較好

that they're actively harmful for women to take.

而對女性患者是有害的

Being a rebel is about recognizing

要當一個反抗的人要知道

that experts' assumptions

專家用的假設

and their methodologies

和他們的理論

can easily be flawed.

是很容易有錯誤的

Second,

第二：

we need to create the space

我們需要創造空間

for what I call "managed dissent."

去管理不同的意見

If we are to shift paradigms,

如果我們要改變規範

if we are to make breakthroughs,

如果我們要有所突破

if we are to destroy myths,

如果我們要打破迷思

we need to create an environment

我們需要創造出一個空間

in which expert ideas are battling it out,

讓專家的意見是被辯論出來的

in which we're bringing in

我們要把

new, diverse, discordant, heretical views

新的、多樣的、不同的，不同宗教的意見

into the discussion,

帶進討論裡

fearlessly,

而且是無所畏懼的

in the knowledge that progress comes about,

在談到關於知識的進展

not only from the creation of ideas,

不只是建立想法

but also from their destruction --

也包括拋去想法

and also from the knowledge

各種知識裡

that, by surrounding ourselves

在我們周遭

by divergent, discordant,

不同、不一致的

heretical views.

不同宗教派別的觀點

All the research now shows us

所有的研究告訴我們

that this actually makes us smarter.

這些實際上都讓我們變得聰明

Encouraging dissent is a rebellious notion

鼓勵反對的意見是一種反抗的概念

because it goes against our very instincts,

因為這是在抗拒我們的本能

which are to surround ourselves

我們喜歡處在

with opinions and advice

一個意見和建議

that we already believe

被公認正確

or want to be true.

或是事實的環境裡

And that's why I talk about the need

這也是我為何談到我們需要

to actively manage dissent.

主動地去了解這些不同的聲音

Google CEO Eric Schmidt

Google執行長Eric Schmidt

is a practical practitioner

是一位這種理念

of this philosophy.

的實踐者

In meetings, he looks out for the person in the room --

開會時，他會找會議室中那一個

arms crossed, looking a bit bemused --

雙手交疊，看起來有點困惑

and draws them into the discussion,

並請他們加入討論

trying to see if they indeed are

試著要了解他們

the person with a different opinion,

是否有不同的意見

so that they have dissent within the room.

他們是否是會議裡有異議的人

Managing dissent

了解異議

is about recognizing the value

是要去區分出

of disagreement, discord

不同意，不一致

and difference.

和不同的價值

But we need to go even further.

但我們需要更進一步

We need to fundamentally redefine

我們需要從根本上重新定義

who it is that experts are.

誰才是專家

The conventional notion

傳統的觀念

is that experts are people

專家是那些

with advanced degrees,

有高學歷

fancy titles, diplomas,

高職位，有文憑

best-selling books --

暢銷書作者

high-status individuals.

地位高的人

But just imagine

但想像一下

if we were to junk

如果我們丟掉

this notion of expertise

這種專業知識的概念

as some sort of elite cadre

還有以精英為基準的想法

and instead embrace the notion

而去接納

of democratized expertise --

大眾化的專業知識

whereby expertise was not just the preserve

那們專業知識就不只是來自於

of surgeons and CEO's,

外科醫生或是執行長之類的人士

but also shop-girls -- yeah.

也有可能來自於一般的店員

Best Buy,

像是Best Buy的店員

the consumer electronics company,

消費性電子產品公司的

gets all its employees --

所有員工

the cleaners, the shop assistants,

從清潔工、店員

the people in the back office,

到高階主管

not just its forecasting team --

包括他們預測團隊

to place bets, yes bets,

去打賭，你們沒聽錯

on things like whether or not

去打賭一樣東西

a product is going to sell well before Christmas,

像是一項可能在聖誕節前暢銷的產品

on whether customers' new ideas

或是決定顧客的新想法

are going to be or should be taken on by the company,

是否要被公司採納

on whether a project

或是一項計畫

will come in on time.

是否要如期執行

By leveraging

透過利用

and by embracing

還有接納

the expertise within the company,

在公司裡的專業人才

Best Buy was able to discover, for example,

Best Buy可以去發掘，例如

that the store that it was going to open in China --

即將要在中國開立的營業據點

its big, grand store --

一間大型的門市

was not going to open on time.

不會如期開張

Because when it asked its staff,

因為如果去問他們的員工

all its staff, to place their bets

所有的員工，要他們下賭注

on whether they thought the store would open on time or not,

看看是否門市會如期開幕

a group from the finance department

財務部的人

placed all their chips

全部都賭

on that not happening.

不會如期開幕

It turned out that they were aware,

原來這些人意識到

as no one else within the company was,

公司其他人沒有發現的東西

of a technological blip

發現了個技術上的小問題

that neither the forecasting experts,

不管是預測專家

nor the experts on the ground in China,

或是在中國的專家

were even aware of.

都沒注意到的情況

The strategies

然而

that I have discussed this evening --

我今晚要談的策略 --

embracing dissent,

接納不同的意見

taking experts on,

挑戰專家

democratizing expertise,

把專業知識大眾化

rebellious strategies --

反抗的策略

are strategies that I think

都是我認為

would serve us all well to embrace

能幫助我們有效了解

as we try to deal with the challenges

當我們要嘗試面對挑戰的時候

of these very confusing, complex,

面對那些困惑、複雜

difficult times.

艱難的挑戰時

For if we keep

如果我們能

our independent decision-making part

讓我們大腦獨立決策的區塊

of our brains switched on,

有效運作

if we challenge experts, if we're skeptical,

如果我們挑戰專家，我們去質疑

if we devolve authority,

如果我們下放權力

if we are rebellious,

如果我們反抗

but also

同時

if we become much more comfortable

我們能自在的了解

with nuance,

那些細微差別

uncertainty and doubt,

和不確定的疑惑

and if we allow our experts

還有我們讓專家

to express themselves

在發表言論時

using those terms too,

也能做到這樣

we will set ourselves up

那我們能幫助自己

much better

更能去面對

for the challenges of the 21st century.

21世紀的挑戰

For now, more than ever,

比起過去，現在

is not the time

更不應該

to be blindly following,

盲目地追隨

blindly accepting,

盲目地接受

blindly trusting.

盲目地相信

Now is the time to face the world

現在的世界

with eyes wide open --

我們要睜大眼睛

yes, using experts

當然，要利用專家

to help us figure things out, for sure --

來幫助我們弄清楚事情

I don't want to completely do myself out of a job here --

我可不希望自己失業

but being aware

但我們要明白

of their limitations

專家的限度

and, of course, also our own.

當然還有我們自己的限度

Thank you.

謝謝各位

(Applause)

(掌聲)