Noreena Hertz: How to use experts -- and when not to

翻译人员: TONG LI 校对人员: Felix Chen

It's Monday morning.

星期一的早晨

In Washington,

在华盛顿

the president of the United States

美国总统

is sitting in the Oval Office,

坐在椭圆形办公室里，

assessing whether or not

思忖着是否

to strike Al Qaeda

要打击也门

in Yemen.

的基地组织。

At Number 10 Downing Street,

在唐宁街（英国首相府）

David Cameron is trying to work out

大卫·卡梅隆（英国首相）正在考虑

whether to cut more public sector jobs

是否削减更多公共部门职位

in order to stave off a double-dip recession.

以对抗二次经济衰退。

In Madrid, Maria Gonzalez

在马德里，玛丽亚∙冈萨雷斯

is standing at the door,

站在门边

listening to her baby crying and crying,

听着她的孩子不停哭泣

trying to work out whether she should let it cry

她想弄明白是该让孩子继续哭

until it falls asleep

哭到自己睡着

or pick it up and hold it.

还是把孩子抱起来，哄一哄。

And I am sitting by my father's bedside in hospital,

在医院，我坐在父亲的病床旁，

trying to work out

想知道

whether I should let him drink

是否让他喝下

the one-and-a-half-liter bottle of water

那瓶1.5公升的水

that his doctors just came in and said,

刚才他的医生来到病房说：

"You must make him drink today," --

“你今天必须让他喝下去，” --

my father's been nil by mouth for a week --

我父亲饮食难咽已经一个星期了，

or whether, by giving him this bottle,

让他喝下这么一大瓶水，

I might actually kill him.

简直是要了他的命。

We face momentous decisions

在我们的一生中，我们会面临着种种重要选择，

with important consequences

这些选择的结果

throughout our lives,

会产生重要影响。

and we have strategies for dealing with these decisions.

我们有各种途径来应对这些选择：

We talk things over with our friends,

跟朋友倾谈

we scour the Internet,

上网搜索

we search through books.

或者查阅书籍

But still,

但是

even in this age

即便当今

of Google and TripAdvisor

我们有谷歌、到到网

and Amazon Recommends,

和亚马逊推荐，

it's still experts

我们仍然

that we rely upon most --

最信赖专家--

especially when the stakes are high

尤其是在风险很高

and the decision really matters.

选择非常重要更是如此。

Because in a world of data deluge

因为在一个拥有海量数据

and extreme complexity,

和极其纷繁复杂的世界中，

we believe that experts

我们相信专家

are more able to process information than we can --

比我们更善于处理信息--

that they are able to come to better conclusions

他们给出的结论

than we could come to on our own.

往往比我们自己的结论要好。

And in an age

在一个

that is sometimes nowadays frightening

让我们时常感到恐惧

or confusing,

有时困惑的时代，

we feel reassured

我们只有把专家

by the almost parental-like authority

当作父母一样的权威

of experts

来信赖

who tell us so clearly what it is

听从他们所说的话

we can and cannot do.

遵循他们的建议做选择才感到安心。

But I believe

但我认为

that this is a big problem,

这是一个大问题

a problem with potentially dangerous consequences

甚至可能严重的影响到我们

for us as a society,

整个社会

as a culture

整个文化

and as individuals.

及我们个人。

It's not that experts

我并不是在否定专家

have not massively contributed to the world --

对世界作出的巨大贡献--

of course they have.

他们当然有贡献。

The problem lies with us:

问题出在我们身上--

we've become addicted to experts.

我们已变得过于依赖专家。

We've become addicted to their certainty,

我们过于相信专家是千真万确、

their assuredness,

十拿九稳、

their definitiveness,

永不出错，

and in the process,

在这一过程中

we have ceded our responsibility,

我们放弃了自己的责任

substituting our intellect

丢弃了自己的逻辑思维

and our intelligence

和聪明才智

for their supposed words of wisdom.

只相信专家的”真知灼见“。

We've surrendered our power,

我们放弃了自己的力量，

trading off our discomfort

因为自己无法确定感到苦恼，

with uncertainty

所以幻想通过

for the illusion of certainty

专家的确定性

that they provide.

来排解我们的苦恼。

This is no exaggeration.

我没有夸张

In a recent experiment,

最近有一个实验

a group of adults

对一组成年人

had their brains scanned in an MRI machine

的大脑进行磁共振扫描

as they were listening to experts speak.

同时让他们听专家讲话

The results were quite extraordinary.

扫描结果让人惊讶：

As they listened to the experts' voices,

他们听专家讲话的同时

the independent decision-making parts of their brains

大脑负责独立决策的区域

switched off.

就停止活动--

It literally flat-lined.

屏幕上出现一条直线。

And they listened to whatever the experts said

无论专家所说的话是什么

and took their advice, however right or wrong.

他们都全盘接受专家的建议，不分对错。

But experts do get things wrong.

但是专家也会犯错。

Did you know that studies show

你们知道有研究表明

that doctors misdiagnose

医生的诊断结果中

four times out of 10?

有40%的误诊率吗？

Did you know

你们知道有数据表明

that if you file your tax returns yourself,

如果你自己填纳税申报单，

you're statistically more likely

自己往往计算得正确，

to be filing them correctly

而找一个纳税顾问

than if you get a tax adviser

来帮你报税

to do it for you?

正确率要差很多吗？

And then there's, of course, the example

当然，我还能举出

that we're all too aware of:

大家更熟悉的例子：

financial experts

正因为金融专家

getting it so wrong

大错特错，

that we're living through the worst recession

所以我们陷入了自30年代以来

since the 1930s.

最糟糕的经济衰退。

For the sake of our health,

为了我们的健康，

our wealth

繁荣

and our collective security,

以及共同安全

it's imperative that we keep

我们必须要保持

the independent decision-making parts of our brains

大脑的独立决策能力

switched on.

时时开启。

And I'm saying this as an economist

我是一个经济学者，

who, over the past few years,

在过去的几年中

has focused my research

集中研究

on what it is we think

我们人类的想法

and who it is we trust and why,

我们相信谁以及为什么相信他们。

but also --

但同时--

and I'm aware of the irony here --

我也意识到比较讽刺的一点--

as an expert myself,

我本身就是专家

as a professor,

也是一名教授，

as somebody who advises prime ministers,

我为许多首相、大公司的领导

heads of big companies,

和国际组织

international organizations,

提供建议；

but an expert who believes

但我自己却认为

that the role of experts needs to change,

专家的角色需要转变，

that we need to become more open-minded,

专家的思维应该更开放，

more democratic

更听从公众的意见，

and be more open

更加能容纳

to people rebelling against

那些质疑

our points of view.

我们观点的人。

So in order to help you understand

为了帮助大家了解

where I'm coming from,

我的背景，

let me bring you into my world,

我先带大家了解下我的世界

the world of experts.

专家的世界。

Now there are, of course, exceptions,

当然，现实中不乏例子表明

wonderful, civilization-enhancing exceptions.

专家推动了人类文明的进步，

But what my research has shown me

但我的研究表明

is that experts tend on the whole

专家整体上倾向于

to form very rigid camps,

形成非常顽固的阵营，

that within these camps,

在每个阵营之内

a dominant perspective emerges

有一个占主导地位的观点

that often silences opposition,

常常压制其他的反对观点。

that experts move with the prevailing winds,

专家也都随波逐流

often hero-worshipping

通常都追捧

their own gurus.

自己那一派的泰斗。

Alan Greenspan's proclamations

阿兰·格林斯潘曾经宣称

that the years of economic growth

经济增长会连年持续

would go on and on,

不会停滞，

not challenged by his peers,

业内没人挑战他的权威，

until after the crisis, of course.

但后来经济危机却席卷而来。

You see,

你瞧，

we also learn

我们要明白

that experts are located,

专家也有地域性，

are governed,

也受到

by the social and cultural norms

既定的社会文化准则

of their times --

的制约--

whether it be the doctors

举几个例子：

in Victorian England, say,

英国维多利亚时代的医生

who sent women to asylums

把表达自己性欲的女性

for expressing sexual desire,

送到精神病院；

or the psychiatrists in the United States

美国的精神科医生

who, up until 1973,

一直到1973年

were still categorizing homosexuality

还把同性恋归结为

as a mental illness.

精神疾病

And what all this means

所有这些表明

is that paradigms

人们的思维范式

take far too long to shift,

根深蒂固、迟于改变，

that complexity and nuance are ignored

而且忽略了复杂性和差异性

and also that money talks --

还往往向金钱看齐--

because we've all seen the evidence

我们都看到过

of pharmaceutical companies

制药公司

funding studies of drugs

出资研究药品

that conveniently leave out

却图方便对药品最大的副作用

their worst side effects,

置之不理，

or studies funded by food companies

还有一些食品公司

of their new products,

出资研究自己的新产品，

massively exaggerating the health benefits

但却对他们准备推向市场的新产品

of the products they're about to bring by market.

的健康疗效极其夸大。

The study showed that food companies exaggerated

研究表明，食品公司的研究结果

typically seven times more

往往比独立研究要

than an independent study.

夸大七倍

And we've also got to be aware

我们也要认识到

that experts, of course,

专家当然

also make mistakes.

也会犯错。

They make mistakes every single day --

他们每一天都会犯一些错误--

mistakes born out of carelessness.

往往是由于粗心引起的。

A recent study in the Archives of Surgery

《外科档案》杂志最近有一个研究

reported surgeons

报道外科医生

removing healthy ovaries,

摘除健康的卵巢，

operating on the wrong side of the brain,

做脑手术时弄错了左右，

carrying out procedures on the wrong hand,

也会搞错要动手术的是哪只手，

elbow, eye, foot,

肘，眼睛或者脚；

and also mistakes born out of thinking errors.

他们还犯一些思维上的错误。

A common thinking error

一个常见思维错误就是

of radiologists, for example --

放射科医生的诊断--

when they look at CT scans --

他们看到病人的CT扫描，

is that they're overly influenced

就会参照转介医生

by whatever it is

如何诊断病人的病症，

that the referring physician has said

而他们的判断

that he suspects

就会极大的受到

the patient's problem to be.

先前诊断的影响。

So if a radiologist

所以如果一名放射科医生

is looking at the scan

接待一个被诊断为疑似肺炎

of a patient with suspected pneumonia, say,

的病人，看着扫描结果，

what happens is that,

可能有这种情况发生：

if they see evidence

他们一旦看到屏幕上

of pneumonia on the scan,

有肺炎的症状，

they literally stop looking at it --

就不会进一步观察--

thereby missing the tumor

结果就忽略了

sitting three inches below

病人肺部几英寸以下

on the patient's lungs.

还有肿瘤。

I've shared with you so far

目前为止我已经跟大家

some insights into the world of experts.

分享了一些我对专家的看法

These are, of course,

当然我不只想跟大家

not the only insights I could share,

分享这些想法

but I hope they give you a clear sense at least

而是希望至少让大家明白

of why we need to stop kowtowing to them,

我们为什么要停止崇拜专家

why we need to rebel

为什么要质疑他们的想法

and why we need to switch

以及为什么要保持我们的

our independent decision-making capabilities on.

独立决策能力常启常新

But how can we do this?

具体要怎样做呢？

Well for the sake of time,

因为时间有限

I want to focus on just three strategies.

我在这里主要讲三种方法

First, we've got to be ready and willing

第一，我们应该自愿主动的

to take experts on

反对专家的意见

and dispense with this notion of them

摒弃那种把他们当成现世圣人

as modern-day apostles.

的想法。

This doesn't mean having to get a Ph.D.

这不是意味着你得成为

in every single subject,

某个学科的博士

you'll be relieved to hear.

大家听到这句会松一口气

But it does mean persisting

而是说，比如，专家难免会

in the face of their inevitable annoyance

表现的不耐烦

when, for example,

例如，当我们

we want them to explain things to us

想让专家用我们

in language that we can actually understand.

能明白的话解释一些事情时。

Why was it that, when I had an operation,

为什么这么说呢，有一次我要做个手术，

my doctor said to me,

我的医生跟我说，

"Beware, Ms. Hertz,

“赫兹小姐，小心体温过高的

of hyperpyrexia,"

症状，”

when he could have just as easily said,

他可以简单的说，

"Watch out for a high fever."

小心别发高烧。

You see, being ready to take experts on

听从专家的意见

is about also being willing

也就是要主动的

to dig behind their graphs,

探寻他们给出的图表，

their equations, their forecasts,

等式，诊断，估计等等

their prophecies,

背后真正的涵义，

and being armed with the questions to do that --

还要自己准备问一些问题，

questions like:

比如：

What are the assumptions that underpin this?

你是基于何种推断得出这种观点？

What is the evidence upon which this is based?

推断的依据是什么？

What has your investigation focused on?

你的检查是集中于哪方面，

And what has it ignored?

忽略了什么方面？

It recently came out

最近有研究表明，

that experts trialing drugs

有些专家对即将上市药品

before they come to market

进行测试的时候

typically trial drugs

他们通常首先

first, primarily on male animals

在雄性动物身上试验，

and then, primarily on men.

然后在男性身上试验。

It seems that they've somehow overlooked the fact

他们好像忽略了一个事实：

that over half the world's population are women.

世界上超过一半的人口是女性。

And women have drawn the short medical straw

所以女性在医药测试中总是倒霉的一方，

because it now turns out that many of these drugs

因为现在证明许多药品

don't work nearly as well on women

对男性有效

as they do on men --

对女性效果却不大，

and the drugs that do work well work so well

甚至由于药品药性过于强大，女性服用后

that they're actively harmful for women to take.

反而对身体造成很大伤害。

Being a rebel is about recognizing

所以质疑专家实际上是

that experts' assumptions

认识到专家的推断，

and their methodologies

他们采用的方法

can easily be flawed.

也往往是有缺陷的，

Second,

第二，

we need to create the space

我们需要营造出一种空间

for what I call "managed dissent."

”提出管理性异见“。

If we are to shift paradigms,

如果我们要转变思维和行为模式，

if we are to make breakthroughs,

取得突破，

if we are to destroy myths,

打破神秘，

we need to create an environment

我们就需要培养出一种氛围，

in which expert ideas are battling it out,

让专家的想法打出胜负，

in which we're bringing in

让我们大胆地提出各种新的

new, diverse, discordant, heretical views

不和谐的声音和离经叛道的想法，

into the discussion,

在参与讨论的过程中

fearlessly,

我们要无所畏惧。

in the knowledge that progress comes about,

因为我们知道进步不仅来自于

not only from the creation of ideas,

提出新构想，

but also from their destruction --

也来源于解构旧想法；

and also from the knowledge

因为我们知道

that, by surrounding ourselves

我们必须敞开心胸接受各种

by divergent, discordant,

不和谐的声音，接受

heretical views.

离经叛道的想法。

All the research now shows us

所有研究表明只有这样

that this actually makes us smarter.

我们才会变得更聪明。

Encouraging dissent is a rebellious notion

鼓励不和谐的声音其实很反叛，

because it goes against our very instincts,

因为这与我们的本能背道而驰，

which are to surround ourselves

我们的本能是只接受

with opinions and advice

那些我们已经深信或者

that we already believe

主观上想去相信

or want to be true.

的意见和建议。

And that's why I talk about the need

这也就是为什么我提倡我需要

to actively manage dissent.

积极的管理异见。

Google CEO Eric Schmidt

谷歌首席执行官埃里克·施密特

is a practical practitioner

在现实中就秉承

of this philosophy.

这种哲学理念

In meetings, he looks out for the person in the room --

开会时，他就望向房间里的人--

arms crossed, looking a bit bemused --

他的手臂端着，神色些许困惑--

and draws them into the discussion,

他让每个人参与到讨论中来，

trying to see if they indeed are

看看这些人能否真正

the person with a different opinion,

提出不同的意见，

so that they have dissent within the room.

这样会议室内才有各种不同的声音。

Managing dissent

管理异见就是

is about recognizing the value

认识到让各种不同声音，

of disagreement, discord

不同意见

and difference.

百家争鸣的价值性。

But we need to go even further.

但我们需要更进一步，

We need to fundamentally redefine

从根本上重新定义

who it is that experts are.

专家的概念

The conventional notion

传统概念

is that experts are people

将专家定义为那些有

with advanced degrees,

高等学位，有名头衔

fancy titles, diplomas,

持各种证书或

best-selling books --

写过畅销书的人--

high-status individuals.

都是有名望的人。

But just imagine

但是请想象一下

if we were to junk

如果我们抛弃

this notion of expertise

把专家的意见当成

as some sort of elite cadre

金科玉律的想法，

and instead embrace the notion

相反，勇于接受让专业知识

of democratized expertise --

走向平民化的想法，

whereby expertise was not just the preserve

这样专业知识就不仅仅是外科医生

of surgeons and CEO's,

或首席执行官的独有领域，

but also shop-girls -- yeah.

也可以由店员传授给你。

Best Buy,

美国百思买是一家

the consumer electronics company,

消费型电子产品公司，

gets all its employees --

它鼓励公司所有员工

the cleaners, the shop assistants,

无论是保洁员，店员，还是

the people in the back office,

后勤人员参都与公司决策，

not just its forecasting team --

而不是把这些任务

to place bets, yes bets,

留给预测团队一力承担。

on things like whether or not

员工共同参谋比如

a product is going to sell well before Christmas,

某一产品能否在圣诞节前畅销，

on whether customers' new ideas

或者顾客提出的新想法

are going to be or should be taken on by the company,

是否可以被公司采纳，

on whether a project

某个项目能否

will come in on time.

及时进行等等。

By leveraging

通过利用

and by embracing

和鼓励专业知识

the expertise within the company,

在公司里普及，

Best Buy was able to discover, for example,

百思买得以发现，例如，

that the store that it was going to open in China --

公司计划在中国开业的

its big, grand store --

大型百思买商店

was not going to open on time.

却不能按期开业，

Because when it asked its staff,

因为当时公司问员工，

all its staff, to place their bets

让所有的员工下注

on whether they thought the store would open on time or not,

猜中国的商店能否如期开业，

a group from the finance department

公司财政部的一组员工

placed all their chips

全部都投了否定票

on that not happening.

认为不会如期开业。

It turned out that they were aware,

结果证明这组员工

as no one else within the company was,

在公司其他部门都没有意识到时候

of a technological blip

对技术性的故障已有先见之明，

that neither the forecasting experts,

而对这种故障无论是预测专家

nor the experts on the ground in China,

还是在公司在中国的专家

were even aware of.

都没料到。

The strategies

今天晚上

that I have discussed this evening --

我跟大家探讨的策略--

embracing dissent,

欢迎不和谐声音、

taking experts on,

反对专家的意见、

democratizing expertise,

让专业知识走向平民化

rebellious strategies --

接受不同的意见，

are strategies that I think

我认为这些策略

would serve us all well to embrace

能让我们游刃有余地

as we try to deal with the challenges

应对当今这个迷乱、复杂

of these very confusing, complex,

艰难的时代为我们

difficult times.

带来的挑战。

For if we keep

如果我们保持

our independent decision-making part

大脑的决策功能

of our brains switched on,

时时开启，

if we challenge experts, if we're skeptical,

如果我们挑战专家，敢于质疑，

if we devolve authority,

瓦解所谓权威，

if we are rebellious,

如过我们能提出反对声音，

but also

同时，

if we become much more comfortable

如果我们能更加坦然接受

with nuance,

所面对的差异、

uncertainty and doubt,

不确定性和质疑，

and if we allow our experts

如果我们也允许

to express themselves

专家能够以这些方式

using those terms too,

来阐释他们自己，

we will set ourselves up

我们就能够更好的

much better

武装自己，

for the challenges of the 21st century.

应对21世纪的挑战。

For now, more than ever,

现在比以往

is not the time

更需要我们

to be blindly following,

抛弃忙从、

blindly accepting,

盲目接受

blindly trusting.

盲目相信。

Now is the time to face the world

现在正需要我们

with eyes wide open --

睁大眼睛看世界--

yes, using experts

当然也需要专家帮助

to help us figure things out, for sure --

我们解决问题--

I don't want to completely do myself out of a job here --

我还不想让自己彻底失业--

but being aware

但是，要意识到

of their limitations

专家的局限性

and, of course, also our own.

还有我们自己的局限性。

Thank you.

谢谢大家

(Applause)

（掌声）