Noreena Hertz: How to use experts -- and when not to

Prevoditelj: Mislav Ante Omazić - EFZG Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG

It's Monday morning.

Ponedjeljak je ujutro.

In Washington,

U Washingtonu,

the president of the United States

predsjednik Sjedinjenih Država

is sitting in the Oval Office,

sjedi u svom ovalnom uredu,

assessing whether or not

procjenjuje hoće li ili ne

to strike Al Qaeda

napasti Al Qaedu

in Yemen.

u Jemenu.

At Number 10 Downing Street,

Na broju 10 u Downing Street,

David Cameron is trying to work out

David Cameron pokušava rješiti

whether to cut more public sector jobs

hoće li smanjiti broj radnih mjesta u javnom sektoru

in order to stave off a double-dip recession.

kako bi odbio ponovnu recesiju.

In Madrid, Maria Gonzalez

U Madridu, Maria Gonzalez

is standing at the door,

stoji na vratima,

listening to her baby crying and crying,

slušajući kako njena beba plače i plače,

trying to work out whether she should let it cry

pokušava shvatiti treba li ju pustiti da plače

until it falls asleep

dok ne zaspe

or pick it up and hold it.

ili je podići i držati u naručju.

And I am sitting by my father's bedside in hospital,

A ja sjedim uz postelju svog oca u bolnici,

trying to work out

pokušavajući odlučiti

whether I should let him drink

trebam li ga pustiti da pije

the one-and-a-half-liter bottle of water

bocu vode od jedne i pol litre

that his doctors just came in and said,

koju je upravo preporučio njegov doktor,

"You must make him drink today," --

"Morate ga natjerati da pije danas,"--

my father's been nil by mouth for a week --

moj otac je na tašte već tjedan dana --

or whether, by giving him this bottle,

ili ću, dajući mu njegovu bocu,

I might actually kill him.

ga u stvari ubiti.

We face momentous decisions

Suočavamo se s momentima odluke

with important consequences

s važnim posljedicama

throughout our lives,

cijeli život.

and we have strategies for dealing with these decisions.

I imamo strategije kako se nositi s tim odlukama.

We talk things over with our friends,

Razgovoramo o tome s našim prijateljima,

we scour the Internet,

pretražujemo Internet,

we search through books.

tražimo u knjigama.

But still,

Ali opet,

even in this age

čak i u ovo doba

of Google and TripAdvisor

Google-a i TripAdvisor-a

and Amazon Recommends,

i preporuka na Amazon-u,

it's still experts

još su uvijek eksperti

that we rely upon most --

oni u koje se pouzdamo najviše --

especially when the stakes are high

posebno kada su ulozi veliki

and the decision really matters.

a odluke su stvarno važne.

Because in a world of data deluge

Zbog toga što je svijet podataka preplavljen

and extreme complexity,

i ekstremno složen,

we believe that experts

vjerujemo kako su eksperti

are more able to process information than we can --

sposobniji procesuirati informacije nego mi --

that they are able to come to better conclusions

kako su oni sposobni doći do boljih zaključaka

than we could come to on our own.

nego što bi mi to sami mogli.

And in an age

I u ovo doba

that is sometimes nowadays frightening

to je ponekad zastrašujuće

or confusing,

ili zbunjujuće,

we feel reassured

osjećamo se osiguranima

by the almost parental-like authority

s gotovo pred-natalnim autoritetom

of experts

eksperata

who tell us so clearly what it is

koji nam jasno govore što

we can and cannot do.

možemo i nemožemo napraviti.

But I believe

Ali ja vjerujem

that this is a big problem,

kako je to veliki problem,

a problem with potentially dangerous consequences

problem s potencijalno opasnim posljedicama

for us as a society,

za nas kao društvo,

as a culture

kao kulturu

and as individuals.

i kao pojedince.

It's not that experts

Nije kako eksperti

have not massively contributed to the world --

nisu jako doprinijeli svijetu --

of course they have.

naravno, da jesu.

The problem lies with us:

Problem leži u nama;

we've become addicted to experts.

postali smo ovisni o ekspertima.

We've become addicted to their certainty,

Postali smo ovisni o njihovoj sigurnosti,

their assuredness,

njihovoj uvjerljivosti,

their definitiveness,

njihovoj definitivnosti,

and in the process,

i u procesu,

we have ceded our responsibility,

smo ustupili našu odgovornost,

substituting our intellect

zamjenjujući naš intelekt

and our intelligence

i našu inteligenciju

for their supposed words of wisdom.

s njihovim navodnim riječima mudrosti.

We've surrendered our power,

Predali smo našu moć,

trading off our discomfort

mijenjajući našu neudobnost

with uncertainty

s nesigurnošću

for the illusion of certainty

s iluzijom sigurnosti

that they provide.

koju oni osiguravaju.

This is no exaggeration.

To nije pretjerivanje.

In a recent experiment,

U nedavnom eksperimentu,

a group of adults

grupa odraslih

had their brains scanned in an MRI machine

dala je skenirati svoje mozgove na MRI uređaju

as they were listening to experts speak.

dok su slušali dok im eksperti govore.

The results were quite extraordinary.

Rezultati su bili prilično izvanredni.

As they listened to the experts' voices,

Dok su slušali glasove eksperata,

the independent decision-making parts of their brains

neovisni dijelovi njihovih mozgova za odlučivanje

switched off.

su se ugasili.

It literally flat-lined.

Jednostavno su umrli.

And they listened to whatever the experts said

I slušali su štogod su eksperti govorili

and took their advice, however right or wrong.

i uzimali njihove savjete, koliko god da su bili točni ili netočni.

But experts do get things wrong.

Ali eksperti ponekad donesu krive odluke.

Did you know that studies show

Jeste li znali kako studije pokazuju

that doctors misdiagnose

kako doktori krivo dijagnosticiraju

four times out of 10?

četiri puta od 10?

Did you know

Jeste li znali

that if you file your tax returns yourself,

da ako sami podnesete poreznu prijavu,

you're statistically more likely

statistički je veća vjerojatnost

to be filing them correctly

da će biti ispunjena točno

than if you get a tax adviser

nego da to učini porezni savjetnik

to do it for you?

za vas?

And then there's, of course, the example

I tu je, naravno, primjer

that we're all too aware of:

kojeg smo svi svjesni:

financial experts

financijski eksperti

getting it so wrong

koji su radili toliko krivo

that we're living through the worst recession

da sada proživljavamo najveću recesiju

since the 1930s.

od 1930-ih.

For the sake of our health,

Zbog našeg zdravlja,

our wealth

našeg bogatstva

and our collective security,

i naše kolektivne sigurnosti,

it's imperative that we keep

imperativ je da zadržimo

the independent decision-making parts of our brains

neovisan dio naših mozgova koji je povezan s donošenjem odluka

switched on.

upaljenim.

And I'm saying this as an economist

I to govorim kao ekonomistica

who, over the past few years,

koja je, kroz nekoliko posljednjih godina,

has focused my research

usmjerila svoje istraživanje

on what it is we think

na to što mislimo

and who it is we trust and why,

te kome vjerujemo i zašto.

but also --

Ali također --

and I'm aware of the irony here --

i svjesna sam ironije ovdje --

as an expert myself,

jer sam i sama ekspert,

as a professor,

kao profesorica,

as somebody who advises prime ministers,

kao netko tko savjetuje premijere,

heads of big companies,

glavne ljude velikih kompanija,

international organizations,

međunarodne organizacije,

but an expert who believes

ali ekspert koji vjeruje

that the role of experts needs to change,

da se uloga eksperata mora promijeniti,

that we need to become more open-minded,

da moramo postati otvoreniji,

more democratic

demokratičniji,

and be more open

i biti otvoreniji

to people rebelling against

da se ljudi pobune protiv

our points of view.

naših pogleda.

So in order to help you understand

Kako bih vam pomogla shvatiti

where I'm coming from,

od kuda dolazim,

let me bring you into my world,

dopustite da vas uvedem u svoj svijet,

the world of experts.

svijet eksperata.

Now there are, of course, exceptions,

Postoje, naravno, iznimke,

wonderful, civilization-enhancing exceptions.

prekrasne, civilizacijom potaknute iznimke.

But what my research has shown me

Ali ono što su mi moja istraživanja pokazala

is that experts tend on the whole

jest kako eksperti u cjelini imaju tendenciju

to form very rigid camps,

formirati jako rigidne tabore,

that within these camps,

da unutar tih tabora,

a dominant perspective emerges

dominantna perspektiva ispliva

that often silences opposition,

koja često utiša opoziciju,

that experts move with the prevailing winds,

da se eksperti kreću uz pomoć prevladavajućih struja,

often hero-worshipping

često herojski obožavanih

their own gurus.

njihovih vlastitih gurua.

Alan Greenspan's proclamations

Proklamacije Alana Greenspana

that the years of economic growth

kako će se godine ekonomskog rasta

would go on and on,

ponavljati u beskonačnost,

not challenged by his peers,

nisu bile izazvane od njegovih kolega,

until after the crisis, of course.

do poslije krize, naravno.

You see,

Vidite,

we also learn

mi također učimo

that experts are located,

kako su eksperti locirani,

are governed,

upravljani,

by the social and cultural norms

društvenim i kulturološkim normama

of their times --

svog vremena --

whether it be the doctors

bilo da su doktori

in Victorian England, say,

viktorijanske Engleske, na primjer,

who sent women to asylums

koji su slali žene u azile

for expressing sexual desire,

kada bi izrazili seksualne želje,

or the psychiatrists in the United States

ili psihijatri u Sjedinjenim Državama

who, up until 1973,

koji su, do 1973.,

were still categorizing homosexuality

još uvijek kategorizirali homoseksualnost

as a mental illness.

kao mentalnu bolest.

And what all this means

I što sve to znači

is that paradigms

jest da paradigmama

take far too long to shift,

treba previše da se promjene,

that complexity and nuance are ignored

kako se složenost i nijanse ignoriraju,

and also that money talks --

i da novac govori --

because we've all seen the evidence

jer smo svi vidjeli dokaz

of pharmaceutical companies

kako farmaceutske kompanije

funding studies of drugs

financiraju istraživanja o lijekovima

that conveniently leave out

koja konvencionalno izostavljaju

their worst side effects,

njihove najgore efekte,

or studies funded by food companies

ili studije koje financiraju prehrambene kompanije

of their new products,

o njihovim novim proizvodima,

massively exaggerating the health benefits

koje masovno pretjeruju o zdravstvenim koristima

of the products they're about to bring by market.

proizvoda koje će plasirati na tržište.

The study showed that food companies exaggerated

Studija pokazuje kako prehrambene kompanije pretjeruju

typically seven times more

tipično sedam pute više

than an independent study.

od nezavisnih studija.

And we've also got to be aware

I također moramo biti svjesni

that experts, of course,

da eksperti, naravno,

also make mistakes.

također rade greške.

They make mistakes every single day --

Oni griješe baš svaki dan --

mistakes born out of carelessness.

greške koje se rađaju iz nemara.

A recent study in the Archives of Surgery

Recentna studija u Arhivima kirurgije

reported surgeons

pokazuje kako kirurzi

removing healthy ovaries,

uklanjaju zdrave jajnike,

operating on the wrong side of the brain,

operiraju na krivoj strani mozga,

carrying out procedures on the wrong hand,

obavljaju operacije na krivoj ruci,

elbow, eye, foot,

laktu, oku, nozi,

and also mistakes born out of thinking errors.

i također greške koje se rađaju iz pogrešnog razmišljanja.

A common thinking error

Uobičajenog načina razmišljanja

of radiologists, for example --

na primjer radiologa --

when they look at CT scans --

kada gledaju CT slike --

is that they're overly influenced

koji su pod pretjeranim utjecajem

by whatever it is

onoga što je

that the referring physician has said

referentni doktor rekao

that he suspects

da sumnja

the patient's problem to be.

da je pacijentov problem.

So if a radiologist

Ako radiolog

is looking at the scan

gleda na sliku

of a patient with suspected pneumonia, say,

pacijenta za kojega se sumnja da ima upalu pluća, recimo,

what happens is that,

ono što se dogodi je,

if they see evidence

ako vide dokaz

of pneumonia on the scan,

upale pluća na slici,

they literally stop looking at it --

oni je doslovno prestanu gledati --

thereby missing the tumor

tako im može promaknuti tumor

sitting three inches below

koji se nalazi osam cm niže

on the patient's lungs.

na pacijentovim plućima.

I've shared with you so far

Podijelila sam s vama do sada

some insights into the world of experts.

neke spoznaje o svijetu eksperata.

These are, of course,

To nisu, naravno,

not the only insights I could share,

sve spoznaje koje sam mogla podijeliti,

but I hope they give you a clear sense at least

ali se nadam da vam u najmanju ruku daju jasan osjećaj

of why we need to stop kowtowing to them,

zašto im se moramo prestati klanjati,

why we need to rebel

zašto se moramo pobuniti,

and why we need to switch

i zašto moramo uključiti

our independent decision-making capabilities on.

svoje neovisne sposobnosti donošenja odluka.

But how can we do this?

Ali kako možemo to učiniti?

Well for the sake of time,

Zbog količine vremena,

I want to focus on just three strategies.

želim se fokusirati samo na tri strategije.

First, we've got to be ready and willing

Prvo, moramo biti spremni i željni

to take experts on

prihvatiti eksperte

and dispense with this notion of them

i dijeliti tu ideju o njima

as modern-day apostles.

kao apostolima suvremenog doba.

This doesn't mean having to get a Ph.D.

To ne znači željeti imati doktorat

in every single subject,

u svakom mogućem polju,

you'll be relieved to hear.

o kojem ćete slušati.

But it does mean persisting

Već to znači ustrajati

in the face of their inevitable annoyance

po cijenu neizbježne muke

when, for example,

kada, na primjer,

we want them to explain things to us

želimo da nam objasne stvari

in language that we can actually understand.

jezikom koji stvarno možemo razumijeti.

Why was it that, when I had an operation,

Zašto to govorim, kada sam imala operaciju,

my doctor said to me,

moj doktor mi je rekao,

"Beware, Ms. Hertz,

"Čuvajte se, gđo. Herz,

of hyperpyrexia,"

hiperpireksija,"

when he could have just as easily said,

kada mi je jednostavno mogao reći

"Watch out for a high fever."

čuvajte se visoke temperature?

You see, being ready to take experts on

Vidite, biti spreman izazvati eksperta

is about also being willing

odnosi se i na to da ste spremni

to dig behind their graphs,

kopati iza njihovih grafova,

their equations, their forecasts,

njihovih jednadžbi, njihovih prognoza,

their prophecies,

njihovih proročanstava,

and being armed with the questions to do that --

i biti naoružan pitanjima putem kojih ćete to raditi --

questions like:

pitanjima poput:

What are the assumptions that underpin this?

Koje su pretpostavke koje to podupiru?

What is the evidence upon which this is based?

Koji je dokaz na kojem se to temelji?

What has your investigation focused on?

Na što se vaše istraživanje usmjerilo?

And what has it ignored?

A što je zanemarilo?

It recently came out

Nedavno je izašlo

that experts trialing drugs

da stručnjaci koji ispituju ljekove

before they come to market

prije nego što ih plasiraju na tržište

typically trial drugs

tipično ispituju lijekove

first, primarily on male animals

prvo, primarno na muškim životinjama

and then, primarily on men.

i onda primarno na muškarcima.

It seems that they've somehow overlooked the fact

Izgleda da su nekako previdjeli činjenicu

that over half the world's population are women.

da su preko polovice populacije žene.

And women have drawn the short medical straw

I žene su medicinski zakinute,

because it now turns out that many of these drugs

jer se sada pokazuje kako veliki broj tih lijekova

don't work nearly as well on women

ne funkcionira ni približno dobro na ženama

as they do on men --

kao što to rade na muškarcima --

and the drugs that do work well work so well

a lijekovi koji dobro rade, to rade toliko dobro

that they're actively harmful for women to take.

da su štetni za žene.

Being a rebel is about recognizing

Biti pobunjenik znači prepoznati

that experts' assumptions

kako stručne pretpostavke

and their methodologies

i njihova metodologija

can easily be flawed.

mogu jednostavno biti defektne.

Second,

Drugo,

we need to create the space

moramo kreirati prostor

for what I call "managed dissent."

za ono što nazivam upravljujućim neslaganjem.

If we are to shift paradigms,

Ako želimo promijeniti paradigme,

if we are to make breakthroughs,

ako želimo stvoriti otkrića,

if we are to destroy myths,

ako želimo uništiti mitove,

we need to create an environment

moramo stvoriti okruženje

in which expert ideas are battling it out,

u kojem se ekspertne ideje bore,

in which we're bringing in

u kojem unosimo

new, diverse, discordant, heretical views

nove, raznolike, proturječne, heretičke poglede

into the discussion,

u raspravu,

fearlessly,

bez straha,

in the knowledge that progress comes about,

znajući kako se napredak događa,

not only from the creation of ideas,

ne samo kroz stvaranje ideja,

but also from their destruction --

već i iz njihova uništavanja --

and also from the knowledge

i također iz znanja

that, by surrounding ourselves

da ako se predamo

by divergent, discordant,

raznolikim, proturječnim,

heretical views.

heretičkim pogledima,

All the research now shows us

sva istraživanja nam sada pokazuju

that this actually makes us smarter.

da nas to čini pametnijima.

Encouraging dissent is a rebellious notion

Poticanje neslaganja je buntovna misao

because it goes against our very instincts,

jer ide protiv naših instinkta,

which are to surround ourselves

a koji se odnose na to da se okružimo

with opinions and advice

s mišljenjima i savjetima

that we already believe

u koje već vjerujemo

or want to be true.

ili želimo da su istiniti.

And that's why I talk about the need

I to je zašto ja pričam o potrebi

to actively manage dissent.

da se aktivno kontrolira neslaganje.

Google CEO Eric Schmidt

Googleov izvršni direktor Eric Schmidt

is a practical practitioner

je praktični praktičar

of this philosophy.

ove filozofije.

In meetings, he looks out for the person in the room --

Na sastancima, traži ljude po sobi --

arms crossed, looking a bit bemused --

prekrštenih ruku, koji izgledaju odsutno --

and draws them into the discussion,

i uvlači ih u raspravu,

trying to see if they indeed are

želeći vidjeti jesu li oni stvarno

the person with a different opinion,

osobe s drugačijim mišljenjem,

so that they have dissent within the room.

kako bi imali neslaganje na sastanku.

Managing dissent

Upravljati neslaganjem

is about recognizing the value

odnosi se na prepoznavanje vrijednosti

of disagreement, discord

neslaganja, disonance

and difference.

i razlike.

But we need to go even further.

Ali trebamo otići još i dalje.

We need to fundamentally redefine

Moramo fundamentalno redefinirati

who it is that experts are.

tko su eksperti.

The conventional notion

Konvencionalna spoznaja

is that experts are people

je da su eksperti ljudi

with advanced degrees,

s visokim stupnjevima,

fancy titles, diplomas,

kitinjastim naslovima, diplomama,

best-selling books --

najprodavanijim knjigama --

high-status individuals.

visoko pozicionirani pojedinci.

But just imagine

Ali zamislite samo

if we were to junk

kada bismo odbacili

this notion of expertise

tu primisao ekspertize

as some sort of elite cadre

kao neke vrste elitnog kadra

and instead embrace the notion

i umjesto toga prihvatimo misao

of democratized expertise --

demokratizirane stručnosti --

whereby expertise was not just the preserve

gdje ekspertiza nije samo rezervirana

of surgeons and CEO's,

za kirurge i menadžere,

but also shop-girls -- yeah.

već i za cure u dućanu -- da.

Best Buy,

Best Buy,

the consumer electronics company,

kompanija koja prodaje potrošnu elektroniku,

gets all its employees --

uzima sve svoje zaposlenike --

the cleaners, the shop assistants,

čistače, asistente prodaje,

the people in the back office,

ljude u uredima,

not just its forecasting team --

ne samo svoj tim za predviđanja --

to place bets, yes bets,

da se klade, da klade,

on things like whether or not

na stvari hoće li se ili ne

a product is going to sell well before Christmas,

proizvodi dobro prodavati prije Božića,

on whether customers' new ideas

trebaju li se nove ideje kupaca

are going to be or should be taken on by the company,

uzeti u razmatranje,

on whether a project

hoće li se projekti

will come in on time.

izvršiti na vrijeme.

By leveraging

Balansirajući

and by embracing

i uzimajući

the expertise within the company,

ekspertizu unutar kompanije,

Best Buy was able to discover, for example,

Best Buy je otkrio, na primjer,

that the store that it was going to open in China --

kako dućan koji su namjeravali otvoriti u Kini --

its big, grand store --

njihov veliki, grandiozni dućan --

was not going to open on time.

neće biti otvoren na vrijeme.

Because when it asked its staff,

Jer kada su pitali svoje zaposlenike,

all its staff, to place their bets

sve svoje zaposlenike, da se klade

on whether they thought the store would open on time or not,

na to misle li da će se dućan otvoriti na vrijeme ili ne,

a group from the finance department

grupa iz odjela financija

placed all their chips

stavila je sve svoje oklade

on that not happening.

da se to neće dogoditi.

It turned out that they were aware,

Ispalo je kako su bili svjesni,

as no one else within the company was,

onoga što nitko drugi u kompaniji nije,

of a technological blip

tehnološkog signala

that neither the forecasting experts,

kojeg niti eksperti u odjelu predviđanja

nor the experts on the ground in China,

niti eksperti u Kini,

were even aware of.

nisu bili svjesni.

The strategies

Strategije

that I have discussed this evening --

o kojima sam pričala večeras --

embracing dissent,

prihvaćanje neslaganja,

taking experts on,

uzimanje stručnjaka,

democratizing expertise,

demokratiziranje stručnosti,

rebellious strategies --

buntovne strategije,

are strategies that I think

su strategije za koje mislim

would serve us all well to embrace

da će nam dobro služiti da ih prihvatimo

as we try to deal with the challenges

dok se borimo s izazovima

of these very confusing, complex,

ovog jako konfuznog, složenog,

difficult times.

teškog vremena.

For if we keep

Jer ako zadržimo

our independent decision-making part

naš dio za neovisno donošenje odluka

of our brains switched on,

u mozgu uključenim,

if we challenge experts, if we're skeptical,

ako izazovemo stručnjake, ako smo skeptični,

if we devolve authority,

ako se suprostavimo autoritetu,

if we are rebellious,

ako smo buntovni,

but also

ali također

if we become much more comfortable

ako postanemo puno komforniji

with nuance,

s nijansama,

uncertainty and doubt,

nesigurnošću i sumnjom,

and if we allow our experts

i ako dopustimo stručnjacima

to express themselves

da se izraze

using those terms too,

koristeći također ove uvjete,

we will set ourselves up

postaviti ćemo se

much better

puno bolje

for the challenges of the 21st century.

naspram izazova 21. stoljeća.

For now, more than ever,

Jer sada, više no ikada,

is not the time

nije vrijeme

to be blindly following,

za slijepo slijeđenje,

blindly accepting,

slijepo prihvaćanje,

blindly trusting.

slijepo vjerovanje.

Now is the time to face the world

Sada je vrijeme suočiti se sa svijetom

with eyes wide open --

širom otvorenih očiju --

yes, using experts

da, koristeći stručnjake

to help us figure things out, for sure --

da nam pomognu shvatiti stvari, naravno --

I don't want to completely do myself out of a job here --

ne želim potpuno ostati bez posla --

but being aware

ali bivajući svjesni

of their limitations

njihovih ograničenja

and, of course, also our own.

i naravno, naših vlastitih.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

Pljesak.