Noreena Hertz: How to use experts -- and when not to

66,994 views ใƒป 2011-02-21

TED


ืื ื ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ.

ืžืชืจื’ื: Yubal Masalker ืžื‘ืงืจ: Sigal Tifferet
00:15
It's Monday morning.
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ื–ื”ื• ื™ื•ื ืฉื ื™ ื‘ื‘ื•ืงืจ.
00:18
In Washington,
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ื‘ื•ื•ืฉื™ื ื’ื˜ื•ืŸ,
00:20
the president of the United States
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ื ืฉื™ื ืืจื”"ื‘
00:22
is sitting in the Oval Office,
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ื‘ื—ื“ืจ ื”ืกื’ืœื’ืœ,
00:24
assessing whether or not
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ืžื‘ืฆืข ื”ืขืจื›ื•ืช ืื
00:26
to strike Al Qaeda
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ืœืชืงื•ืฃ ืืช ืืœ-ืงืืขื™ื“ื”
00:28
in Yemen.
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ื‘ืชื™ืžืŸ.
00:30
At Number 10 Downing Street,
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ื‘ืจื—ื™ ื“ืื•ื ื™ื ื’ 10,
00:32
David Cameron is trying to work out
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ื“ื™ื™ื•ื™ื“ ืงืžืจื•ืŸ ืžื ืกื” ืœื—ืฉื‘
00:35
whether to cut more public sector jobs
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ืื ืœืงืฆืฅ ื‘ืขื•ื“ ืžื™ืฉืจื•ืช ืฉืœ ื”ืžื™ื’ื–ืจ ื”ืฆื™ื‘ื•ืจื™
00:38
in order to stave off a double-dip recession.
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ื“ื•ืฃ ืžื™ืชื•ืŸ ืžืชื’ื‘ืจ.
00:41
In Madrid, Maria Gonzalez
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ื‘ืžื“ืจื™ื“, ืžืจื™ื” ื’ื•ื ื–ืœืก
00:44
is standing at the door,
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ืขื•ืžื“ืช ื‘ื“ืœืช,
00:46
listening to her baby crying and crying,
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ืฉื•ืžืขืช ืืช ืชื™ื ื•ืงื” ื‘ื•ื›ื” ื•ื‘ื•ื›ื”,
00:49
trying to work out whether she should let it cry
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ื•ืžื ืกื” ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืื ืขืœื™ื” ืœื”ื ื™ื— ืœื• ืœื‘ื›ื•ืช
00:52
until it falls asleep
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ืขื“ ืฉื™ื™ืจื“ื
00:54
or pick it up and hold it.
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ืื• ืœื”ืจื™ืžื• ื•ืœื”ื—ื–ื™ืงื•.
00:57
And I am sitting by my father's bedside in hospital,
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ื•ืื ื™ ื™ื•ืฉื‘ืช ืœืฆื“ ืžื™ื˜ืช ืื‘ื™ ื‘ื‘ื™ืช-ื—ื•ืœื™ื,
01:01
trying to work out
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ื•ืžื ืกื” ืœื”ื—ืœื™ื˜
01:03
whether I should let him drink
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ืื ืขืœื™ื™ ืœื”ื ื™ื— ืœื• ืœืฉืชื•ืช
01:05
the one-and-a-half-liter bottle of water
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ืืช ื‘ืงื‘ื•ืง ื”ืžื™ื ืฉืœ ืœื™ื˜ืจ ื•ื—ืฆื™
01:08
that his doctors just came in and said,
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ืฉืจื•ืคืื™ื• ื–ื” ืขืชื” ื ื›ื ืกื• ื•ืืžืจื•,
01:11
"You must make him drink today," --
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"ืืช ื—ื™ื™ื‘ืช ืœื’ืจื•ื ืœื• ืœืฉืชื•ืช ื”ื™ื•ื," --
01:13
my father's been nil by mouth for a week --
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ืื‘ื™ ืœื ื”ื›ื ื™ืก ืœืคื™ื• ื“ื‘ืจ ื›ื‘ืจ ืฉื‘ื•ืข --
01:16
or whether, by giving him this bottle,
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ืื• ืื•ืœื™ ื‘ื–ื” ืฉืืชืŸ ืœื• ืืช ื”ื‘ืงื‘ื•ืง,
01:20
I might actually kill him.
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ืื ื™ ืขืœื•ืœื” ื‘ืขืฆื ืœื’ืจื•ื ืœืžื•ืชื•.
01:23
We face momentous decisions
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ืœืื•ืจืš ื—ื™ื™ื ื•, ืื ื• ืขื•ืžื“ื™ื ื‘ืคื ื™
01:26
with important consequences
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ื”ื—ืœื˜ื•ืช ื’ื•ืจืœื™ื•ืช
01:28
throughout our lives,
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ื‘ืขืœื•ืช ืชื•ืฆืื•ืช ืžืฉืžืขื•ืชื™ื•ืช.
01:30
and we have strategies for dealing with these decisions.
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ื•ื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ื“ืจื›ื™ื ืœื”ืชืžื•ื“ื“ ืขื ื”ื”ื—ืœื˜ื•ืช ื”ืœืœื•.
01:33
We talk things over with our friends,
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ืื ื• ืžืชื™ื™ืขืฆื™ื ืขื ื—ื‘ืจื™ื ื•,
01:36
we scour the Internet,
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ืื ื—ื ื• ื‘ื•ื“ืงื™ื ื‘ืื™ื ื˜ืจื ื˜,
01:39
we search through books.
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ืื ื• ืžื—ืคืฉื™ื ื‘ืกืคืจื™ื.
01:42
But still,
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ืื‘ืœ ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ,
01:44
even in this age
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ืืคื™ืœื• ื‘ืขื™ื“ืŸ ื–ื”
01:46
of Google and TripAdvisor
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ืฉืœ ื’ื•ื’ืœ ื•-TripAdviser
01:48
and Amazon Recommends,
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ื•ื”ื”ืžืœืฆื•ืช ืฉืœ ืืžืื–ื•ืŸ,
01:51
it's still experts
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ืืœื” ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ื”ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื
01:53
that we rely upon most --
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ืฉืขืœื™ื”ื ืื ื• ืกื•ืžื›ื™ื ื”ื›ื™ ื”ืจื‘ื” --
01:56
especially when the stakes are high
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ื‘ืžื™ื•ื—ื“ ื›ืืฉืจ ื”ืจื‘ื” ืขื•ืžื“ ืขืœ ื”ืคืจืง
01:58
and the decision really matters.
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ื•ื”ื”ื—ืœื˜ื” ื”ื™ื ื‘ืืžืช ืงื•ื‘ืขืช.
02:01
Because in a world of data deluge
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ืžืคื ื™ ืฉื‘ืขื•ืœื ืฉืœ ื”ืฆืคื” ื‘ืžื™ื“ืข
02:03
and extreme complexity,
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ื•ืฉืœ ืžื•ืจื›ื‘ื•ืช ืงื™ืฆื•ื ื™ืช,
02:06
we believe that experts
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ืื ื• ืžืืžื™ื ื™ื ืฉืžื•ืžื—ื™ื
02:08
are more able to process information than we can --
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ืžืกื•ื’ืœื™ื ืœืขื‘ื“ ืžื™ื“ืข ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžืื™ืชื ื• --
02:11
that they are able to come to better conclusions
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ืฉื”ื ืžืกื•ื’ืœื™ื ืœื”ื’ื™ืข ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžืื™ืชื ื•
02:14
than we could come to on our own.
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ืœืžืกืงื ื•ืช ื”ื ื›ื•ื ื•ืช.
02:17
And in an age
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ื•ื‘ืชืงื•ืคื”
02:19
that is sometimes nowadays frightening
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ืฉื”ื™ื ื›ื™ื•ื ืœืขื™ืชื™ื ืžืคื—ื™ื“ื”
02:22
or confusing,
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ืื• ืžื‘ืœื‘ืœืช,
02:24
we feel reassured
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ืื ื• ื—ืฉื™ื ื™ื•ืชืจ ื‘ื˜ื•ื—ื™ื
02:26
by the almost parental-like authority
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ืชื—ืช ืกืžื›ื•ืชื ืฉืœ ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ืฉื”ื™ื ื›ืžืขื˜ ื“ื•ืžื”
02:29
of experts
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ืœืกืžื›ื•ืช ื”ื”ื•ืจื™ืช,
02:31
who tell us so clearly what it is
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ืืฉืจ ืžืกืคืจื™ื ืœื ื• ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ื‘ืจื•ืจ
02:34
we can and cannot do.
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ืžื” ืื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื•ืžื” ืœื.
02:38
But I believe
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ื™ ืžืืžื™ื ื”
02:40
that this is a big problem,
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ืฉื™ืฉ ื›ืืŸ ื‘ืขื™ื” ื’ื“ื•ืœื”,
02:42
a problem with potentially dangerous consequences
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ื‘ืขื™ื” ืฉืขืœื•ืœื” ืœื”ื‘ื™ื ืœืชื•ืฆืื•ืช ืžืกื•ื›ื ื•ืช
02:46
for us as a society,
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ื‘ืฉื‘ื™ืœื ื• ื›ื—ื‘ืจื”,
02:49
as a culture
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ื›ืชืจื‘ื•ืช
02:51
and as individuals.
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ื•ื›ื™ื—ื™ื“ื™ื.
02:53
It's not that experts
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ื–ื” ืœื ืฉืžื•ืžื—ื™ื
02:55
have not massively contributed to the world --
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ืœื ืชืจืžื• ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืžืฉืžืขื•ืชื™ ืœืขื•ืœื --
02:57
of course they have.
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ื‘ืจื•ืจ ืฉื”ื ื›ืŸ.
02:59
The problem lies with us:
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ื”ื‘ืขื™ื” ืงื™ื™ืžืช ืืฆืœื ื•;
03:02
we've become addicted to experts.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ื”ืชืžื›ืจื ื• ืœืžื•ืžื—ื™ื.
03:05
We've become addicted to their certainty,
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ืื ื—ื ื• ื”ืชืžื›ืจื ื• ืœื•ื•ื“ืื•ืช ืฉื‘ื“ื‘ืจื™ื”ื,
03:08
their assuredness,
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ืœื‘ื™ื˜ื—ื•ื ื ื”ืขืฆืžื™,
03:10
their definitiveness,
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ืœื”ื—ืœื˜ื™ื•ืชื,
03:12
and in the process,
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ื•ื‘ืชื•ืš ื›ืš,
03:14
we have ceded our responsibility,
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ื•ื™ืชืจื ื• ืขืœ ื”ืื—ืจื™ื•ืช ืฉืœื ื•,
03:16
substituting our intellect
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ื”ื—ืœืคื ื• ืืช ื™ื›ื•ืœืช ื”ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื”
03:18
and our intelligence
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ืฉืœื ื• ื•ืืช ื”ืชื‘ื•ื ื” ืฉืœื ื•
03:21
for their supposed words of wisdom.
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ื‘ืืžื•ื ื” ื‘ืžื™ืœื•ืชื™ื”ื ื”ื—ื›ืžื•ืช ื›ื‘ื™ื›ื•ืœ.
03:24
We've surrendered our power,
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ื•ื™ืชืจื ื• ืขืœ ื›ื•ื—ื ื•,
03:27
trading off our discomfort
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ืชื•ืš ืคื™ื“ื™ื•ืŸ ืื™-ื”ื ื•ื—ื•ืช ืฉืœื ื•
03:29
with uncertainty
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ืžื—ื•ืกืจ ื”ื•ื•ื“ืื•ืช,
03:31
for the illusion of certainty
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ืชืžื•ืจืช ืืฉืœื™ื™ืช ื”ื•ื•ื“ืื•ืช
03:33
that they provide.
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ืฉื”ื ืžืกืคืงื™ื.
03:36
This is no exaggeration.
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ืื ื™ ืœื ืžื’ื–ื™ืžื”.
03:39
In a recent experiment,
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ื‘ื ื™ืกื•ื™ ืฉื‘ื•ืฆืข ืœืื—ืจื•ื ื”,
03:41
a group of adults
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ืžื•ื—ื•ืชื™ื”ื ืฉืœ ืงื‘ื•ืฆืช ืžื‘ื•ื’ืจื™ื
03:43
had their brains scanned in an MRI machine
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ืขื‘ืจื• ืกืจื™ืงื” ื‘ืกื•ืจืง ืชื”ื•ื“ื” ืžื’ื ื˜ื™ืช
03:46
as they were listening to experts speak.
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ื‘ืขื•ื“ื ืžืื–ื™ื ื™ื ืœืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ืฉื“ื™ื‘ืจื•.
03:50
The results were quite extraordinary.
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ื”ืชื•ืฆืื•ืช ื”ื™ื• ื“ื™ ื™ื•ืฆืื•ืช-ื“ื•ืคืŸ.
03:53
As they listened to the experts' voices,
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ื‘ืขื•ื“ื ืžืงืฉื™ื‘ื™ื ืœืงื•ืœื•ืช ืฉืœ ื”ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื,
03:56
the independent decision-making parts of their brains
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ื”ืื–ื•ืจื™ื ื‘ืžื•ื—ื•ืชื™ื”ื ื”ืื—ืจืื™ื ืขืœ ืงื‘ืœืช ื”ื—ืœื˜ื•ืช ืขืฆืžืื™ืช
04:01
switched off.
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ื ื›ื‘ื•.
04:03
It literally flat-lined.
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ื”ื, ืคืฉื•ื˜ื• ื›ืžืฉืžืขื•, ื”ืคื›ื• ืœืงื• ื™ืฉืจ ื•ืฉื˜ื•ื—.
04:06
And they listened to whatever the experts said
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ื•ื”ื ื”ืงืฉื™ื‘ื• ืœื›ืœ ืžื” ืฉื”ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ืืžืจื•
04:08
and took their advice, however right or wrong.
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ื•ืฉืžืขื• ืœืขืฆืชื, ืœื ืžืฉื ื” ืื ื”ื™ื ื ื›ื•ื ื” ืื• ืœื.
04:12
But experts do get things wrong.
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ืื‘ืœ ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ื›ืŸ ื˜ื•ืขื™ื.
04:16
Did you know that studies show
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ื”ืื ื™ื“ืขืชื ืฉืžื—ืงืจื™ื ืžืจืื™ื
04:19
that doctors misdiagnose
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ืฉืจื•ืคืื™ื ื˜ื•ืขื™ื ื‘ืื‘ื—ื ื”
04:22
four times out of 10?
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4 ืžืชื•ืš 10 ืคืขืžื™ื?
04:25
Did you know
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ื”ืื ื™ื“ืขืชื
04:27
that if you file your tax returns yourself,
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ืฉืื ืืชื ืžื’ื™ืฉื™ื ื‘ืขืฆืžื›ื ื‘ืงืฉื” ืœื”ื—ื–ืจ ืžืก,
04:30
you're statistically more likely
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ืกื˜ื˜ื™ืกื˜ื™ืช ื™ืฉ ื™ื•ืชืจ ืกื™ื›ื•ื™
04:32
to be filing them correctly
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ืฉื”ืžืกืคืจื™ื ืฉืœื›ื ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื“ื•ื™ื™ืงื™ื
04:34
than if you get a tax adviser
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ืžืืฉืจ ืฉื™ื•ืขืฅ-ืžืก ืžื’ื™ืฉ ืื•ืชื”
04:36
to do it for you?
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ื‘ืฉื‘ื™ืœื›ื?
04:38
And then there's, of course, the example
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ื•ื™ืฉ ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ ืืช ื”ื“ื•ื’ืžื
04:40
that we're all too aware of:
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ืฉื›ื•ืœื ื• ืžื›ื™ืจื™ื ืื•ืชื” ื”ื™ื˜ื‘:
04:42
financial experts
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ื›ืœื›ืœื ื™ื ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื
04:44
getting it so wrong
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ืฉื˜ืขื• ืขื“ ื›ื“ื™ ื›ืš
04:46
that we're living through the worst recession
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ืฉืื ื• ื ืžืฆืื™ื ื›ื™ื•ื ื‘ืžื™ืชื•ืŸ ื”ื›ื™ ืขืžื•ืง
04:48
since the 1930s.
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ืžืื– ืฉื ื•ืช ื”-30 (ื‘ืžืื” ื”-20).
04:52
For the sake of our health,
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ืœืžืขืŸ ื”ื‘ืจื™ืื•ืช ืฉืœื ื•,
04:54
our wealth
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ืžืžื•ื ื ื•
04:56
and our collective security,
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ื•ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ ื”ืงื•ืœืงื˜ื™ื‘ื™ ืฉืœื ื•,
04:58
it's imperative that we keep
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ื—ื•ื‘ื” ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœืฉืžื•ืจ
05:01
the independent decision-making parts of our brains
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ืขืœ ื”ืื–ื•ืจื™ื ื‘ืžื•ื—ื ื• ืฉืื—ืจืื™ื ืขืœ ืงื‘ืœืช ื”ื—ืœื˜ื•ืช ืขืฆืžืื™ืช,
05:05
switched on.
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ืคืขื™ืœื™ื.
05:07
And I'm saying this as an economist
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ื•ืื ื™ ืื•ืžืจืช ื–ืืช ื‘ืชื•ืจ ื›ืœื›ืœื ื™ืช
05:09
who, over the past few years,
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ืฉื‘ืฉื ื™ื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื•ืช
05:11
has focused my research
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ื”ืชืจื›ื–ื” ื‘ืžื—ืงืจื”
05:13
on what it is we think
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ื‘ืกื•ื’ื™ื™ื”, ืžื” ืื ื• ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื
05:15
and who it is we trust and why,
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ื•ื‘ืžื™ ืื ื• ื‘ื•ื˜ื—ื™ื ื•ืžื“ื•ืข.
05:18
but also --
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ืื‘ืœ ื’ื --
05:20
and I'm aware of the irony here --
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ื•ืื ื™ ืžื•ื“ืขืช ืœืื™ืจื•ื ื™ื” ืฉื‘ืขื ื™ื™ืŸ --
05:22
as an expert myself,
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ื‘ืชื•ืจ ืžื•ืžื—ื™ืช ื‘ืขืฆืžื™,
05:25
as a professor,
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ื‘ืชื•ืจ ืคืจื•ืคืกื•ืจ,
05:27
as somebody who advises prime ministers,
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ื‘ืชื•ืจ ืžื™ืฉื”ื™ ืฉืžื™ื™ืขืฆืช ืœืจืืฉื™-ืžืžืฉืœื”,
05:30
heads of big companies,
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ืœืจืืฉื™ ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ื’ื“ื•ืœื•ืช,
05:32
international organizations,
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ืืจื’ื•ื ื™ื ื‘ื™ืŸ-ืœืื•ืžื™ื™ื,
05:34
but an expert who believes
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ืื‘ืœ ื‘ืชื•ืจ ืžื•ืžื—ื™ืช ื”ืžืืžื™ื ื”
05:36
that the role of experts needs to change,
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ืฉื”ืชืคืงื™ื“ ืฉืžืžืœืื™ื ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ืฆืจื™ืš ืœื”ืฉืชื ื•ืช,
05:39
that we need to become more open-minded,
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ืฉืขืœื™ื ื• ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืขืœื™ ืžื—ืฉื‘ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ืคืชื•ื—ื”,
05:42
more democratic
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ื™ื•ืชืจ ื“ืžื•ืงืจื˜ื™ื™ื,
05:44
and be more open
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ื•ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื™ื•ืชืจ ืคืชื•ื—ื™ื
05:46
to people rebelling against
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ืœืื ืฉื™ื ื”ืžืชืงื•ืžืžื™ื
05:48
our points of view.
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ื ื’ื“ ื”ืฉืงืคืชื ื•.
05:51
So in order to help you understand
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ืœื›ืŸ ื›ื“ื™ ืœืขื–ื•ืจ ืœื›ื ืœื”ื‘ื™ืŸ
05:54
where I'm coming from,
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ืžื”ื™ื›ืŸ ืื ื™ ื‘ืื”,
05:56
let me bring you into my world,
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ืื›ื ื™ืก ืืชื›ื ืœืขื•ืœืžื™,
05:59
the world of experts.
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ืขื•ืœื ืฉืœ ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื.
06:01
Now there are, of course, exceptions,
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ื™ืฉ ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ ื™ื•ืฆืื™ื ืžืŸ ื”ื›ืœืœ,
06:05
wonderful, civilization-enhancing exceptions.
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ืžืงืจื™ื ื ืคืœืื™ื ื•ื—ืจื™ื’ื™ื ืฉืœ ืชืจื•ืžื” ืœื—ื‘ืจื”.
06:11
But what my research has shown me
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ืžื—ืงืจ ืฉืœื™ ื”ืจืื” ืœื™
06:14
is that experts tend on the whole
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ืฉืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ื ื•ื˜ื™ื ื‘ื’ื“ื•ืœ
06:17
to form very rigid camps,
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ืœื™ืฆื•ืจ ืžื—ื ื•ืช ื‘ืจื•ืจื™ื
06:20
that within these camps,
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ื•ื‘ืชื•ืš ื”ืžื—ื ื•ืช ื”ืœืœื•,
06:22
a dominant perspective emerges
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ืžื•ืคื™ืขื” ื”ืฉืงืคื” ืื—ืช ืฉืœื˜ืช
06:25
that often silences opposition,
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ืืฉืจ ืœืขื™ืชื™ื ืงืจื•ื‘ื•ืช ืžืฉืชื™ืงื” ื”ืชื ื’ื“ื•ืช;
06:28
that experts move with the prevailing winds,
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ืฉืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ื–ื•ืจืžื™ื ืขื ื”ืจื•ื— ื”ื ื•ืฉื‘ืช,
06:31
often hero-worshipping
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ืœืขื™ืชื™ื ืงืจื•ื‘ื•ืช ืชื•ืš ืกื’ื™ื“ื” ื›ืžื• ืืœ ื’ื™ื‘ื•ืจื™ื
06:34
their own gurus.
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ืœืžื•ืฉืื™ ื”ื”ืขืจืฆื” ืฉืœื”ื.
06:36
Alan Greenspan's proclamations
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ื”ื”ื›ืจื–ื•ืช ืฉืœ ืืœืŸ ื’ืจื™ื ืกืคืืŸ
06:38
that the years of economic growth
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ืฉืฉื ื•ืช ื”ืฆืžื™ื—ื” ื”ื›ืœื›ืœื™ืช
06:41
would go on and on,
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ื™ื™ืžืฉื›ื• ืขื•ื“ ื•ืขื•ื“,
06:44
not challenged by his peers,
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ืœื ืื•ืชื’ืจื• ืขืœ-ื™ื“ื™ ืขืžื™ืชื™ื•,
06:47
until after the crisis, of course.
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ืขื“ ืœืื—ืจ ื”ืžืฉื‘ืจ, ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ.
06:51
You see,
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ืืชื ืจื•ืื™ื,
06:54
we also learn
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ืื ื• ื’ื ืœื•ืžื“ื™ื
06:56
that experts are located,
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ืฉืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ื—ื™ื™ื,
06:58
are governed,
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ื•ื ืฉืœื˜ื™ื,
07:00
by the social and cultural norms
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ืขืœ-ื™ื“ื™ ื ื•ืจืžื•ืช ื—ื‘ืจืชื™ื•ืช ื•ืชืจื‘ื•ืชื™ื•ืช
07:03
of their times --
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ืฉืœ ืชืงื•ืคืชื --
07:05
whether it be the doctors
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ื‘ื™ืŸ ืื ืืœื” ื”ืจื•ืคืื™ื
07:07
in Victorian England, say,
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ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ื” ื”ื•ื™ืงื˜ื•ืจื™ืื ื™ืช,
07:09
who sent women to asylums
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ืฉืฉืœื—ื• ื ืฉื™ื ืœืžื•ืกื“ื•ืช ืœื—ื•ืœื™-ื ืคืฉ
07:12
for expressing sexual desire,
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ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืฉื”ื‘ื™ืขื• ืชืฉื•ืงื” ืžื™ื ื™ืช,
07:15
or the psychiatrists in the United States
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ื•ื‘ื™ืŸ ืื ืืœื” ื”ืคืกื™ื›ื™ืื˜ืจื™ื ื‘ืืจื”"ื‘
07:18
who, up until 1973,
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ืืฉืจ ืขื“ 1973,
07:21
were still categorizing homosexuality
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ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ืกื™ื•ื•ื’ื• ื”ื•ืžื•ืกืงืกื•ืืœื™ื•ืช
07:25
as a mental illness.
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ื‘ืชื•ืจ ืžื—ืœืช ื ืคืฉ.
07:27
And what all this means
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ื•ืžื” ืฉื›ืœ ื–ื” ืื•ืžืจ
07:29
is that paradigms
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ื”ื•ื ืฉืœื•ืงื— ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื“ื™ ื–ืžืŸ
07:31
take far too long to shift,
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ืœืฉื ื•ืช ื“ืคื•ืกื™ ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื”;
07:34
that complexity and nuance are ignored
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ืฉืžืชืขืœืžื™ื ืžืžื•ืจื›ื‘ื•ืช ื•ืžื ื™ื•ืื ืกื™ื,
07:38
and also that money talks --
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ื•ื’ื ืฉื”ื›ืกืฃ ืžื“ื‘ืจ --
07:41
because we've all seen the evidence
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ืžืื—ืจ ื•ืจืื™ื ื• ืืช ื”ื”ื•ื›ื—ื” ื‘ืžืงืจื” ืฉืœ
07:44
of pharmaceutical companies
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ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช
07:46
funding studies of drugs
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ื”ืžืžืžื ื•ืช ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ืฉืœ ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช
07:49
that conveniently leave out
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ื”ืžืฉืžื™ื˜ื™ื ื‘ืงืœื•ืช
07:51
their worst side effects,
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ืืช ืชื•ืคืขื•ืช ื”ืœื•ื•ืื™ ื”ื—ืžื•ืจื•ืช ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ ืฉืœื”ืŸ,
07:54
or studies funded by food companies
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ืื• ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ืฉืžื•ืžื ื• ืขืœ-ื™ื“ื™ ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ืžื–ื•ืŸ,
07:57
of their new products,
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ืฉืœ ืžื•ืฆืจื™ื”ืŸ ื”ื—ื“ืฉื™ื,
08:00
massively exaggerating the health benefits
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ื”ืžื’ื–ื™ืžื™ื ื‘ืžื™ื“ื” ืจื‘ื” ื‘ื ื•ืฉื ื™ืชืจื•ื ื•ืช ื‘ืจื™ืื•ืชื™ื™ื
08:03
of the products they're about to bring by market.
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ืฉืœ ืžื•ืฆืจื™ื”ืŸ ืฉืขืžื“ื• ืœืฆืืช ืœืฉื•ืง.
08:06
The study showed that food companies exaggerated
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ื”ื‘ื“ื™ืงื” ืฉืœื™ ื”ืจืืชื” ืฉื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ืžื–ื•ืŸ
08:08
typically seven times more
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ื”ื’ื–ื™ืžื• ื‘ื“ืจืš-ื›ืœืœ ืคื™ ืฉื‘ืขื” ื™ื•ืชืจ
08:11
than an independent study.
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ื‘ื”ืฉื•ื•ืื” ืœืžื—ืงืจ ื‘ืœืชื™ ืชืœื•ื™.
08:15
And we've also got to be aware
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ื•ืขืœื™ื ื• ื’ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžื•ื“ืขื™ื
08:17
that experts, of course,
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ืฉืžื•ืžื—ื™ื, ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ,
08:19
also make mistakes.
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ื’ื ื˜ื•ืขื™ื.
08:21
They make mistakes every single day --
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ื”ื ื˜ื•ืขื™ื ื‘ื›ืœ ื™ื•ื ื•ื™ื•ื --
08:24
mistakes born out of carelessness.
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ื˜ืขื•ื™ื•ืช ื”ื ื•ืœื“ื•ืช ืžืชื•ืš ื—ื•ืกืจ ื–ื”ื™ืจื•ืช.
08:27
A recent study in the Archives of Surgery
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ืžื—ืงืจ ืฉื‘ื•ืฆืข ืœืื—ืจื•ื ื” ืขืœ ืืจื›ื™ื•ื ื™ ื ื™ืชื•ื—ื™ื
08:30
reported surgeons
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ื“ื™ื•ื•ื— ืขืœ ืžื ืชื—ื™ื
08:32
removing healthy ovaries,
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ืฉื”ืกื™ืจื• ืฉื—ืœื•ืช ื‘ืจื™ืื•ืช,
08:35
operating on the wrong side of the brain,
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ืฉื ื™ืชื—ื• ื‘ืฆื“ ื”ืœื ื ื›ื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ื”ืžื•ื—,
08:38
carrying out procedures on the wrong hand,
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ืฉื‘ื™ืฆืขื• ื ื™ืชื•ื—ื™ื ื‘ื™ื“, ื‘ืžืจืคืง, ื‘ืขื™ืŸ, ื‘ืจื’ืœ
08:41
elbow, eye, foot,
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ื”ืœื ื ื›ื•ื ื™ื,
08:44
and also mistakes born out of thinking errors.
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ื•ื’ื ื˜ืขื•ื™ื•ืช ื”ื ื•ื‘ืขื•ืช ืžืฆื•ืจืช ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ืœื ื ื›ื•ื ื”.
08:47
A common thinking error
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ื˜ืขื•ืช ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ืžืงื•ื‘ืœืช
08:49
of radiologists, for example --
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ืฉืœ ืจื“ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื, ืœื“ื•ื’ืžื --
08:52
when they look at CT scans --
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ื›ืืฉืจ ื”ื ืžืกืชื›ืœื™ื ืขืœ ืกืจื™ืงื•ืช CT --
08:55
is that they're overly influenced
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ื”ื ืžื•ืฉืคืขื™ื ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื“ื™
08:57
by whatever it is
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ืžืžื” ืฉืืžืจ
08:59
that the referring physician has said
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ื”ืจื•ืคื ื”ืžืคื ื”,
09:01
that he suspects
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ืžื” ื”ื•ื ื—ื•ืฉื‘
09:03
the patient's problem to be.
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ืฉื”ื™ื ื”ื‘ืขื™ื” ืืฆืœ ื”ื—ื•ืœื”.
09:06
So if a radiologist
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ื›ืš ืฉืื ืจื“ื™ื•ืœื•ื’
09:08
is looking at the scan
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ืžืกืชื›ืœ ืขืœ ื”ืกืจื™ืงื”
09:10
of a patient with suspected pneumonia, say,
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ืฉืœ ื—ื•ืœื” ืฉื™ืฉ ื‘ื• ื—ืฉื“ ืœื“ืœืงืช ืจื™ืื•ืช,
09:13
what happens is that,
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ืžื” ืฉืงื•ืจื” ื”ื•ื
09:15
if they see evidence
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ืฉืื ื”ื ืžื‘ื—ื™ื ื™ื ื‘ืขื“ื•ืช
09:17
of pneumonia on the scan,
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ืœื”ื™ืžืฆืื•ืช ื“ืœืงืช ืจื™ืื•ืช ื‘ืกืจื™ืงื”,
09:20
they literally stop looking at it --
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ื”ื ืคืฉื•ื˜ ืžืคืกื™ืงื™ื ืœื”ืกืชื›ืœ ืขืœ ื–ื” --
09:23
thereby missing the tumor
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ื•ื‘ื›ืš ืžื—ืžื™ืฆื™ื ืืช ื”ื’ื™ื“ื•ืœ
09:25
sitting three inches below
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ื”ื ืžืฆื 7 ืก"ืž ืžืชื—ืช
09:27
on the patient's lungs.
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ื‘ืชื•ืš ื”ืจื™ืื•ืช ืฉืœ ื”ื—ื•ืœื”.
09:31
I've shared with you so far
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ืขื“ ื›ื” ืฉื™ืชืคืชื™ ืืชื›ื
09:34
some insights into the world of experts.
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ื‘ื›ืžื” ืชื•ื‘ื ื•ืช ืžืชื•ืš ื”ืขื•ืœื ืฉืœ ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื.
09:37
These are, of course,
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ืืœื• ื”ืŸ, ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ,
09:39
not the only insights I could share,
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ืœื ื”ืชื•ื‘ื ื•ืช ื”ื™ื—ื™ื“ื•ืช ืฉื™ื›ื•ืœืชื™ ืœืฉืชืฃ ืืชื›ื,
09:41
but I hope they give you a clear sense at least
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ื™ ืžืงื•ื” ืฉื”ืŸ ื ื•ืชื ื•ืช ืœื›ื ืชื—ื•ืฉื” ื‘ืจื•ืจื”
09:44
of why we need to stop kowtowing to them,
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ืขืœ ืžื“ื•ืข ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœื”ืคืกื™ืง ืœื”ืชืจืคืก ื‘ืคื ื™ื”ื,
09:47
why we need to rebel
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ืžื“ื•ืข ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœื”ืชืงื•ืžื,
09:49
and why we need to switch
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ื•ืžื“ื•ืข ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ
09:51
our independent decision-making capabilities on.
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ืืช ื”ื™ื›ื•ืœื•ืช ืฉืœื ื• ืœืงื‘ืœืช ื”ื—ืœื˜ื•ืช ืขืฆืžืื™ื•ืช.
09:55
But how can we do this?
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ืื‘ืœ ื›ื™ืฆื“ ื ื•ื›ืœ ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื–ืืช?
09:58
Well for the sake of time,
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœื—ืกื•ืš ื‘ื–ืžืŸ,
10:01
I want to focus on just three strategies.
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ืืชืจื›ื– ืจืง ื‘ืฉืœื•ืฉ ื“ืจื›ื™ื.
10:06
First, we've got to be ready and willing
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ืชื—ื™ืœื”, ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœืจืฆื•ืช ื•ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžื•ื›ื ื™ื
10:08
to take experts on
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ืœื”ืชืžื•ื“ื“ ืขื ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื
10:11
and dispense with this notion of them
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ื•ืœื”ื™ืคื˜ืจ ืžื”ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ
10:14
as modern-day apostles.
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ืฉื”ื ืฉืœื™ื—ื™-ื™ืฉื• ื”ืžื•ื“ืจื ื™ื™ื.
10:16
This doesn't mean having to get a Ph.D.
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ืื™ืŸ ื–ื” ืื•ืžืจ ืฉืฆืจื™ืš ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื“ื•ืงื˜ื•ืจื˜
10:19
in every single subject,
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ื‘ื›ืœ ื ื•ืฉื,
10:21
you'll be relieved to hear.
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ืชืฉืžื—ื• ืœืฉืžื•ืข.
10:23
But it does mean persisting
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ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ื›ืŸ ืื•ืžืจ ืœื”ืชืขืงืฉ
10:26
in the face of their inevitable annoyance
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ืžื•ืœ ื”ืจื•ื’ื– ื”ื‘ืœืชื™ ื ืžื ืข ืฉืœื”ื
10:29
when, for example,
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ื›ืืฉืจ, ืœื“ื•ื’ืžื,
10:31
we want them to explain things to us
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ืื ื• ืจื•ืฆื™ื ืฉื”ื ื™ืกื‘ื™ืจื• ืœื ื• ื“ื‘ืจื™ื
10:33
in language that we can actually understand.
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ื‘ืฉืคื” ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืžืกื•ื’ืœื™ื ืœื”ื‘ื™ืŸ.
10:38
Why was it that, when I had an operation,
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ืžื“ื•ืข ื–ื” ืฉื›ืืฉืจ ืขื‘ืจืชื™ ื ื™ืชื•ื—,
10:41
my doctor said to me,
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ื”ืจื•ืคื ืฉืœื™ ืืžืจ ืœื™,
10:43
"Beware, Ms. Hertz,
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"ื’ื‘ืจืช ื”ืจืฅ, ื”ื™ื–ื”ืจื™
10:45
of hyperpyrexia,"
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ืžื”ื™ืคืจืคื™ืจืงืกื™ื”."
10:47
when he could have just as easily said,
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ื›ืืฉืจ ื”ื•ื ื™ื›ืœ ืคืฉื•ื˜ ืœื•ืžืจ
10:49
"Watch out for a high fever."
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ืฉืื–ื”ืจ ืžื—ื•ื ื’ื‘ื•ื”?
10:53
You see, being ready to take experts on
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ืืชื ืจื•ืื™ื, ื”ืžื•ื›ื ื•ืช ืฉืœื ื• ืœื”ืชืžื•ื“ื“ ืขื ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื
10:57
is about also being willing
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ื’ื ืงืฉื•ืจื” ื‘ืจืฆื•ื ื ื•
10:59
to dig behind their graphs,
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ืœื—ืคื•ืจ ืžืขื‘ืจ ืœื’ืจืคื™ื ืฉืœื”ื,
11:02
their equations, their forecasts,
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ืžืฉื•ื•ืื•ืชื™ื”ื, ืชื—ื–ื™ื•ืชื™ื”ื,
11:04
their prophecies,
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ื ื‘ื•ืื•ืชื™ื”ื,
11:06
and being armed with the questions to do that --
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ื•ื‘ื”ื™ื•ืชื ื• ืžืฆื•ื™ื™ื“ื™ื ื‘ืฉืืœื•ืช ื”ื ื›ื•ื ื•ืช ื›ื“ื™ ืœื‘ืฆืข ื–ืืช --
11:09
questions like:
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ืฉืืœื•ืช ื›ืžื•:
11:11
What are the assumptions that underpin this?
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ืžื”ืŸ ื”ื”ื ื—ื•ืช ื”ืžื”ื•ื•ืช ื‘ืกื™ืก ืœื–ื”?
11:14
What is the evidence upon which this is based?
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ืžื”ืŸ ื”ืจืื™ื•ืช ืฉืขืœื™ื”ืŸ ื–ื” ืžื‘ื•ืกืก?
11:17
What has your investigation focused on?
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ื‘ืžื” ื”ืชืžืงื“ ื”ืžื—ืงืจ ืฉืœืš?
11:21
And what has it ignored?
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ื•ืžืžื” ื”ื•ื ื”ืชืขืœื?
11:24
It recently came out
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ืœืื—ืจื•ื ื” ื”ืชื‘ืจืจ
11:26
that experts trialing drugs
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ืฉืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ื”ืžื ืกื™ื ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช
11:29
before they come to market
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ืœืคื ื™ ื™ืฆื™ืืชื ืœืฉื•ืง
11:31
typically trial drugs
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ืžื ืกื™ื ืื•ืชืŸ ื‘ื“ืจืš-ื›ืœืœ
11:34
first, primarily on male animals
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ืชื—ื™ืœื”, ืขืœ ื—ื™ื•ืช ื–ื›ืจื™ื ื‘ืขื™ืงืจ,
11:38
and then, primarily on men.
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ื•ืื—ืจ-ื›ืš ืขืœ ื’ื‘ืจื™ื ื‘ืขื™ืงืจ.
11:41
It seems that they've somehow overlooked the fact
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ื–ื” ื ืจืื” ื›ืื™ืœื• ื”ื ืžืชืขืœืžื™ื ืžื”ืขื•ื‘ื“ื”
11:44
that over half the world's population are women.
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ืฉืžืขืœ ืžื—ืฆื™ืช ืžืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ื™ืช ื”ืขื•ืœื ื”ืŸ ื ืฉื™ื.
11:49
And women have drawn the short medical straw
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ื•ื”ื ืฉื™ื ื”ืŸ ืืœื” ืฉื”ืคืกื™ื“ื•,
11:52
because it now turns out that many of these drugs
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ืžื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ืฉืžืชื‘ืจืจ ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ืฉืจื‘ื•ืช ืžื”ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ื”ืœืœื•
11:55
don't work nearly as well on women
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ืื™ื ืŸ ืžื•ืขื™ืœื•ืช ืœื ืฉื™ื
11:58
as they do on men --
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ื›ืžื• ืฉื”ืŸ ืžื•ืขื™ืœื•ืช ืœื’ื‘ืจื™ื --
12:00
and the drugs that do work well work so well
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ื•ื”ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ืฉื›ืŸ ืžื•ืขื™ืœื•ืช, ื”ืŸ ืžืฉืคื™ืขื•ืช ื›ืœ-ื›ืš ื—ื–ืง
12:03
that they're actively harmful for women to take.
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ืฉื”ืŸ ื”ื•ืคื›ื•ืช ืœืžืขืฉื” ืœืžืกื•ื›ื ื•ืช ืขื‘ื•ืจ ื ืฉื™ื.
12:06
Being a rebel is about recognizing
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ืœื”ืชืงื•ืžื ืคื™ืจื•ืฉื• ืœื”ื›ื™ืจ
12:09
that experts' assumptions
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ื‘ื›ืš ืฉื”ื”ื ื—ื•ืช ืฉืœ ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื
12:12
and their methodologies
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ื•ืฉื™ื˜ื•ืช ื”ืขื‘ื•ื“ื” ืฉืœื”ื
12:14
can easily be flawed.
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ื™ื›ื•ืœื•ืช ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืงืœื•ืช ืคื’ื•ืžื•ืช.
12:17
Second,
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ืฉื ื™ืช,
12:19
we need to create the space
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ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœื™ืฆื•ืจ ืžืงื•ื
12:22
for what I call "managed dissent."
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ืœืžื” ืฉืื ื™ ืžื›ื ื” ื”ืชืžื•ื“ื“ื•ืช ืขื ื”ืชื ื’ื“ื•ืช.
12:25
If we are to shift paradigms,
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ืื ืจื•ืฆื™ื ืœืฉื ื•ืช ื“ืคื•ืกื™ ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื”,
12:27
if we are to make breakthroughs,
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ืื ืจื•ืฆื™ื ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืคืจื™ืฆื•ืช-ื“ืจืš,
12:29
if we are to destroy myths,
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ืื ืจื•ืฆื™ื ืœื—ืกืœ ืžื™ืชื•ืกื™ื,
12:32
we need to create an environment
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ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœื™ืฆื•ืจ ืกื‘ื™ื‘ื”
12:34
in which expert ideas are battling it out,
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ื‘ื” ืจืขื™ื•ื ื•ืช ืฉืœ ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ืžืชื ื’ื—ื™ื ื–ื” ื‘ื–ื”,
12:37
in which we're bringing in
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ืฉื‘ื” ืื ื• ืžื‘ื™ืื™ื
12:39
new, diverse, discordant, heretical views
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ื“ืขื•ืช ื—ื“ืฉื•ืช, ืžื’ื•ื•ื ื•ืช, ืกื•ืชืจื•ืช ื•ื›ื•ืคืจื•ืช,
12:42
into the discussion,
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ืืœ ืชื•ืš ื”ื“ื™ื•ืŸ,
12:44
fearlessly,
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ืœืœื ื—ืฉืฉ,
12:46
in the knowledge that progress comes about,
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ืžืชื•ืš ื™ื“ื™ืขื” ืฉื”ืชืงื“ืžื•ืช ืžืชืจื—ืฉืช,
12:49
not only from the creation of ideas,
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ืœื ืจืง ืžื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืจืขื™ื•ื ื•ืช,
12:53
but also from their destruction --
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ืืœื ื’ื ืžื”ืฉืžื“ืชื --
12:56
and also from the knowledge
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ื•ื’ื ืžืชื•ืš ื”ื™ื“ื™ืขื”
12:59
that, by surrounding ourselves
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ืฉืขืœ-ื™ื“ื™ ื›ืš ืฉื ืงื™ืฃ ืขืฆืžื ื•
13:01
by divergent, discordant,
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ื‘ื“ืขื•ืช ืฉื•ื ื•ืช,
13:04
heretical views.
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ืกื•ืชืจื•ืช ื•ื›ื•ืคืจื•ืช,
13:06
All the research now shows us
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ื›ืœ ื”ืžื—ืงืจ ื”ืขื›ืฉื•ื™ ืžืฆื‘ื™ืข ืขืœ ื›ืš
13:08
that this actually makes us smarter.
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ืฉื–ื” ื‘ืขืฆื ืขื•ืฉื” ืื•ืชื ื• ื™ื•ืชืจ ื—ื›ืžื™ื.
13:13
Encouraging dissent is a rebellious notion
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ืขื™ื“ื•ื“ ื”ืชื ื’ื“ื•ืช ื–ื” ืžื•ืฉื’ ืžืจื“ื ื™
13:16
because it goes against our very instincts,
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ืžืคื ื™ ืฉื”ื•ื ื”ื•ืœืš ื›ื ื’ื“ ื”ืื™ื ืกื˜ื™ื ืงื˜ื™ื ืฉืœื ื•,
13:19
which are to surround ourselves
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ื”ื“ื•ื—ืคื™ื ืื•ืชื ื• ืœื”ืงื™ืฃ ืืช ืขืฆืžื ื•
13:22
with opinions and advice
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ื‘ื“ืขื•ืช ื•ืืžื™ืจื•ืช
13:24
that we already believe
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ืฉืื ื• ืžืจืืฉ ืžืืžื™ื ื™ื ื‘ื”ืŸ
13:27
or want to be true.
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ืื• ืจื•ืฆื™ื ืฉื™ื”ื™ื• ื ื›ื•ื ื•ืช.
13:29
And that's why I talk about the need
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ื•ื–ื• ื”ืกื™ื‘ื” ืฉืื ื™ ืžื“ื‘ืจืช ืขืœ ื”ืฆื•ืจืš
13:31
to actively manage dissent.
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ื‘ื ื™ื”ื•ืœ ืคืขื™ืœ ืฉืœ ื”ืชื ื’ื“ื•ืช.
13:35
Google CEO Eric Schmidt
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ืžื ื›"ืœ ื’ื•ื’ืœ ืืจื™ืง ืฉืžื™ื“ื˜
13:37
is a practical practitioner
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ืžื™ื™ืฉื ื‘ืคื•ืขืœ
13:40
of this philosophy.
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ืคื™ืœื•ืกื•ืคื™ื” ื–ื•.
13:42
In meetings, he looks out for the person in the room --
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ื‘ื™ืฉื™ื‘ื•ืช, ื”ื•ื ืžื—ืคืฉ ืื“ื ื‘ื—ื“ืจ --
13:45
arms crossed, looking a bit bemused --
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ื”ื™ื•ืฉื‘ ื‘ื™ื“ื™ื™ื ืฉืœื•ื‘ื•ืช, ืงืฆืช ืžื‘ื•ืœื‘ืœ --
13:48
and draws them into the discussion,
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ื•ื’ื•ืจืจ ืื•ืชื ืœื“ื™ื•ื ื™ื
13:51
trying to see if they indeed are
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ื•ืžื ืกื” ืœื‘ื“ื•ืง ืื ื”ื ื‘ืืžืช
13:54
the person with a different opinion,
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ืื ืฉื™ื ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื”ื ื“ืขื” ืฉื•ื ื”,
13:57
so that they have dissent within the room.
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ื›ื“ื™ ืฉืชืชืงื™ื™ื ื”ืชื ื’ื“ื•ืช ื‘ื—ื“ืจ.
14:00
Managing dissent
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ื‘ื ื™ื”ื•ืœ ื”ืชื ื’ื“ื•ืช
14:02
is about recognizing the value
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ืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ืขืœ ื”ื›ืจื” ื‘ืขืจืš
14:05
of disagreement, discord
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ืฉืœ ืื™-ื”ืกื›ืžื”, ืฉืœ ื—ื•ืกืจ ื”ืจืžื•ื ื™ื”
14:08
and difference.
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ื•ืฉืœ ื”ื‘ื“ืœื™ื.
14:10
But we need to go even further.
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ืื‘ืœ ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืฆืขื“ ื ื•ืกืฃ.
14:13
We need to fundamentally redefine
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ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœื”ื’ื“ื™ืจ ืžื—ื“ืฉ ื•ืžื”ื™ืกื•ื“
14:16
who it is that experts are.
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ืžื™ื”ื ื‘ื“ื™ื•ืง ื”ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื.
14:20
The conventional notion
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ื”ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ื”ืžืงื•ื‘ืœ
14:22
is that experts are people
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ื”ื•ื ืฉืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ื”ื ืื ืฉื™ื
14:25
with advanced degrees,
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ื‘ืขืœื™ ืชืืจื™ื ืžืชืงื“ืžื™ื,
14:27
fancy titles, diplomas,
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ืชืืจื™ื ืžืฉื•ื‘ื—ื™ื, ื“ื™ืคืœื•ืžื•ืช,
14:30
best-selling books --
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ืจื‘ื™-ืžื›ืจ --
14:32
high-status individuals.
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ืื ืฉื™ื ื‘ืขืœื™ ืžืขืžื“ ื’ื‘ื•ื”.
14:34
But just imagine
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ืื‘ืœ ื‘ื•ืื• ืจืง ื ื“ืžื™ื™ืŸ
14:36
if we were to junk
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ืฉืื ื”ื™ื™ื ื• ื ืคื˜ืจื™ื
14:38
this notion of expertise
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ืžื”ืžื•ืฉื’ ื”ื–ื” ืฉืœ ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื•ืช
14:42
as some sort of elite cadre
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ื‘ืชื•ืจ ืžื™ืŸ ืงื‘ื•ืฆืช ืขื™ืœื™ืช
14:46
and instead embrace the notion
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ื•ื‘ืžืงื•ื ื–ื” ื”ื™ื™ื ื• ืžืืžืฆื™ื ืืช ื”ืžื•ืฉื’
14:49
of democratized expertise --
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ืฉืœ ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื•ืช ื—ื•ืคืฉื™ืช --
14:52
whereby expertise was not just the preserve
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ืฉืœืคื™ื• ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื•ืช ืื™ื ื” ืจืง ืฉืžื•ืจื”
14:55
of surgeons and CEO's,
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ื”ืฉื™ื™ื›ืช ืœืจื•ืคืื™ื ื•ืžื ื›"ืœื™ื,
14:57
but also shop-girls -- yeah.
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ืืœื ื”ื™ื ื’ื ืฉื™ื™ื›ืช ืœื–ื‘ื ื™ื•ืช -- ื›ืŸ, ื›ืŸ.
15:01
Best Buy,
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ื‘ืกื˜ ื‘ื™ื™,
15:03
the consumer electronics company,
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ื”ื—ื‘ืจื” ืœืžื›ื™ืจื•ืช ืงืžืขื•ื ื™ื•ืช ืฉืœ ืžื›ืฉื™ืจื™ ื—ืฉืžืœ,
15:05
gets all its employees --
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ืžื˜ื™ืœื” ืขืœ ื›ืœ ืขื•ื‘ื“ื™ื” --
15:08
the cleaners, the shop assistants,
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ื”ืžื ืงื™ื, ื”ืขื•ื–ืจื™ื ื‘ื—ื ื•ื™ื•ืช,
15:10
the people in the back office,
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ื”ืื ืฉื™ื ื‘ืžืฉืจื“ื™ื ืžืื—ื•ืจ,
15:13
not just its forecasting team --
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ืœื ืจืง ืขืœ ืฆื•ื•ืช ื”ื—ื™ื–ื•ื™ ืฉืœื”ื --
15:15
to place bets, yes bets,
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ืœื”ืžืจ, ื›ืŸ, ืœื”ืžืจ,
15:18
on things like whether or not
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ืขืœ ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื›ื’ื•ืŸ, ืื
15:20
a product is going to sell well before Christmas,
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ืžื•ืฆืจ ืžืกื•ื™ื™ื ื™ื™ืžื›ืจ ื”ื™ื˜ื‘ ืœืคื ื™ ื—ื’-ืžื•ืœื“,
15:23
on whether customers' new ideas
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ืื ื›ื“ืื™ ืœื—ื‘ืจื” ืœืืžืฅ
15:26
are going to be or should be taken on by the company,
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ืจืขื™ื•ื ื•ืช ื—ื“ืฉื™ื ืžืœืงื•ื—ื•ืช,
15:30
on whether a project
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ืื ืคืจื•ื™ื™ืงื˜ ืžืกื•ื™ื™ื
15:32
will come in on time.
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ื™ืกืชื™ื™ื ื‘ืžื•ืขื“ื•.
15:34
By leveraging
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ืขืœ-ื™ื“ื™ ืžื™ื ื•ืฃ
15:36
and by embracing
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ื•ืื™ืžื•ืฅ
15:38
the expertise within the company,
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ื”ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื•ืช ืฉื‘ืชื•ืš ื”ื—ื‘ืจื”,
15:40
Best Buy was able to discover, for example,
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ื‘ืกื˜ ื‘ื™ื™ ื”ืฆืœื™ื—ื” ืœื’ืœื•ืช, ืœื“ื•ื’ืžื,
15:43
that the store that it was going to open in China --
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ืฉื”ื—ื ื•ืช ืฉื”ื™ื ื”ื•ืœื›ืช ืœืคืชื•ื— ื‘ืกื™ืŸ --
15:47
its big, grand store --
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ื”ื—ื ื•ืช ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœื” ื•ื”ืžืคื•ืืจืช ืฉืœื” --
15:49
was not going to open on time.
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ืœื ืชื™ืคืชื— ื‘ืžื•ืขื“.
15:52
Because when it asked its staff,
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ืžื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ืฉื›ืืฉืจ ื”ืขื•ื‘ื“ื™ื ื ืชื‘ืงืฉื•,
15:54
all its staff, to place their bets
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ื›ืœ ื”ืขื•ื‘ื“ื™ื, ืœื”ืžืจ
15:57
on whether they thought the store would open on time or not,
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ืื ื”ื—ื ื•ืช ืชื™ืคืชื— ื‘ืžื•ืขื“ ืื• ืœื,
16:01
a group from the finance department
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ืงื‘ื•ืฆื” ื‘ืžื—ืœืงืช ื”ื›ืกืคื™ื
16:04
placed all their chips
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ืฉืžื” ื”ื›ืœ ืขืœ ื›ืš
16:06
on that not happening.
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ืฉื–ื” ืœื ื™ืงืจื”.
16:09
It turned out that they were aware,
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ื”ืชื‘ืจืจ ืฉื”ื ื”ื™ื• ืžื•ื“ืขื™ื,
16:11
as no one else within the company was,
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ื›ืคื™ ืฉืืฃ ืื—ื“ ืื—ืจ ื‘ื—ื‘ืจื” ืœื ื”ื™ื”,
16:14
of a technological blip
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ืœื‘ืขื™ื” ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ืช
16:16
that neither the forecasting experts,
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ืฉืœื ื”ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ืœื—ื™ื–ื•ื™,
16:18
nor the experts on the ground in China,
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ื•ืœื ื”ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ื‘ืฉื˜ื— -- ื‘ืกื™ืŸ --
16:21
were even aware of.
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ื”ื™ื• ืžื•ื“ืขื™ื ืœื”.
16:25
The strategies
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ื”ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื•ืช
16:27
that I have discussed this evening --
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ื‘ื”ืŸ ื“ื ืชื™ ื”ืขืจื‘ --
16:30
embracing dissent,
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ืœืื™ืžื•ืฅ ื”ืชื ื’ื“ื•ืช,
16:32
taking experts on,
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ืœื”ืชืžื•ื“ื“ื•ืช ืขื ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื,
16:34
democratizing expertise,
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ืœืžืชืŸ ื“ืจื•ืจ ืœืžื•ืžื—ื™ื•ืช,
16:36
rebellious strategies --
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ืœื“ืจื›ื™-ืคืขื•ืœื” ืžืจื“ื ื™ื•ืช,
16:39
are strategies that I think
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ื”ืŸ ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื•ืช ืฉืื ื™ ืกื‘ื•ืจื”
16:41
would serve us all well to embrace
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ืฉื›ื“ืื™ ืœื ื• ืœืืžืฅ
16:43
as we try to deal with the challenges
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ื‘ืขื•ื“ ืื ื• ืžื ืกื™ื ืœื”ืชืžื•ื“ื“ ืขื ื”ืืชื’ืจื™ื
16:46
of these very confusing, complex,
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ืฉืœ ื”ื–ืžื ื™ื ื”ืžืื•ื“ ืžื‘ืœื‘ืœื™ื, ืžื•ืจื›ื‘ื™ื
16:49
difficult times.
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ื•ืงืฉื™ื ืืœื”.
16:51
For if we keep
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ื›ื™ ืื ื ืฉืžื•ืจ
16:53
our independent decision-making part
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ืขืœ ืื•ืชื• ื—ืœืง ื‘ืžื•ื—ื ื•
16:55
of our brains switched on,
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ื”ืื—ืจืื™ ืขืœ ืงื‘ืœืช ื”ื—ืœื˜ื•ืช ืขืฆืžืื™ืช, ืฉื™ื™ืฉืืจ ืคืขื™ืœ,
16:58
if we challenge experts, if we're skeptical,
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ืื ื ืืชื’ืจ ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื, ืื ื ื™ืฉืืจ ืกืคืงื ื™ื™ื,
17:01
if we devolve authority,
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ืื ื ืืฆื™ืœ ืกืžื›ื•ื™ื•ืช,
17:03
if we are rebellious,
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ืื ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืจื“ื ื™ื™ื,
17:05
but also
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ืื‘ืœ ื’ื
17:07
if we become much more comfortable
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ืื ื ืจื’ื™ืฉ ื”ืจื‘ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ื ื•ื—
17:09
with nuance,
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ืขื ื ื™ื•ืื ืกื™ื,
17:11
uncertainty and doubt,
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ื—ื•ืกืจ ื•ื•ื“ืื•ืช ื•ืกืคืง,
17:14
and if we allow our experts
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ื•ื ืชื™ืจ ืœืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ืฉืœื ื•
17:17
to express themselves
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ืœื”ื‘ื™ืข ืืช ืขืฆืžื
17:19
using those terms too,
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ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ืื•ืชื ืžื•ืฉื’ื™ื ื’ื ื›ืŸ,
17:21
we will set ourselves up
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ื ื›ื™ืŸ ืืช ืขืฆืžื ื•
17:23
much better
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ื”ืจื‘ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ื˜ื•ื‘
17:25
for the challenges of the 21st century.
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ืœืงืจืืช ื”ืืชื’ืจื™ื ืฉืœ ื”ืžืื” ื”-21.
17:29
For now, more than ever,
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ื›ื™ ื›ืขืช, ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžืืฉืจ ืื™-ืคืขื,
17:32
is not the time
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ื–ื” ืœื ื”ื–ืžืŸ
17:34
to be blindly following,
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ืœืœื›ืช ื‘ืฆื•ืจื” ืขื™ื•ื•ืจืช ืื—ืจ ืžื™ืฉื”ื•,
17:36
blindly accepting,
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ืœืงื‘ืœ ืžืฉื”ื• ื‘ืฆื•ืจื” ืขื™ื•ื•ืจืช,
17:38
blindly trusting.
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ืœื‘ื˜ื•ื— ื‘ืฆื•ืจื” ืขื™ื•ื•ืจืช.
17:41
Now is the time to face the world
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ื›ืขืช ื”ื–ืžืŸ ืœืขืžื•ื“ ืžื•ืœ ื”ืขื•ืœื
17:44
with eyes wide open --
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ื‘ืขื™ื ื™ื™ื ืคืงื•ื—ื•ืช --
17:47
yes, using experts
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ื›ืŸ, ืœื”ืฉืชืžืฉ ื‘ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื
17:49
to help us figure things out, for sure --
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ื›ื“ื™ ืฉื™ืกื™ื™ืขื• ืœื ื• ืœื”ื‘ื™ืŸ ื“ื‘ืจื™ื, ื‘ื˜ื— ืฉื›ืŸ --
17:52
I don't want to completely do myself out of a job here --
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ืื™ื ื™ ืจื•ืฆื” ืœื”ื™ืฉืืจ ืœืœื ืขื‘ื•ื“ื” --
17:56
but being aware
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ืื‘ืœ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžื•ื“ืขื™ื
17:58
of their limitations
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ืœืžื’ื‘ืœื•ืชื™ื”ื
18:01
and, of course, also our own.
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ื•ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ, ื’ื ืœืฉืœื ื•.
18:05
Thank you.
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ืชื•ื“ื” ืœื›ื.
18:07
(Applause)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
ืขืœ ืืชืจ ื–ื”

ืืชืจ ื–ื” ื™ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืกืจื˜ื•ื ื™ YouTube ื”ืžื•ืขื™ืœื™ื ืœืœื™ืžื•ื“ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช. ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืขื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืจื™ื ืžื”ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื. ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื“ืฃ ื•ื™ื“ืื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื. ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื‘ืกื ื›ืจื•ืŸ ืขื ื”ืคืขืœืช ื”ื•ื•ื™ื“ืื•. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื”ืขืจื•ืช ืื• ื‘ืงืฉื•ืช, ืื ื ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ืชื ื• ืงืฉืจ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื˜ื•ืคืก ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืงืฉืจ ื–ื”.

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