Marco Annunziata: Welcome to the age of the industrial internet

Prevodilac: Maja Budišin Lukin Lektor: Mile Živković

Einstein said that

Ajnštajn je rekao:

"I never think about the future — it comes soon enough."

"Nikada ne razmišljam o budućnosti - dovoljno brzo stiže."

And he was right, of course.

Naravno, bio je u pravu.

So today, I'm here to ask you to think of

Danas sam tu da vas zamolim da razmislite

how the future is happening now.

kako se budućnost dešava sada.

Over the past 200 years, the world has experienced

Tokom proteklih 200 godina, svet je iskusio

two major waves of innovation.

dva glavna talasa inovacija.

First, the Industrial Revolution

Prvo nam je industrijska revolucija

brought us machines and factories, railways,

donela mašine i fabrike, pruge,

electricity, air travel,

struju, putovanja avionom

and our lives have never been the same.

i naši životi nikada više nisu bili isti.

Then the Internet revolution

Zatim nam je internet revolucija

brought us computing power, data networks,

donela kompjutersku moć, mreže podataka,

unprecedented access

pristup bez presedana

to information and communication,

informacijama i komunikaciji

and our lives have never been the same.

i naši životi su se zauvek promenili.

Now we are experiencing

Sada se suočavamo

another metamorphic change:

sa drugom metamorfičnom promenom:

the industrial Internet.

sa industrijskim internetom.

It brings together intelligent machines,

On spaja inteligentne mašine,

advanced analytics,

naprednu analitiku

and the creativity of people at work.

i kreativnost ljudi na poslu.

It's the marriage of minds and machines.

To je brak umova i mašina.

And our lives will never be the same.

I naši životi nikada više neće biti isti.

In my current role, I see up close

U svojoj trenutnoj ulozi, vidim izbliza

how technology is beginning to transform

kako tehnologija počinje da preobražava

industrial sectors that play a huge role

industrijske sektore od ogromnog značaja

in our economy and in our lives:

za našu privredu i živote:

energy, aviation, transportation, health care.

energiju, avijaciju, transport, zdravstvenu zaštitu.

For an economist, this is highly unusual,

Za ekonomiste je to vrlo neobično

and it's extremely exciting,

i izuzetno uzbudljivo,

because this is a transformation

jer je ovaj preobražaj

as powerful as the Industrial Revolution and more,

snažan kao industrijska revolucija i više,

and before the Industrial Revolution,

a pre industrijske revolucije

there was no economic growth to speak of.

se nije govorilo o privrednom rastu.

So what is this industrial Internet?

Šta je taj industrijski internet?

Industrial machines are being equipped

Industrijske mašine su opremljene

with a growing number of electronic sensors

sve većim brojem elektronskih senzora

that allow them to see, hear, feel

koji će im omogućiti da vide, čuju, osećaju

a lot more than ever before,

mnogo više nego ikad pre,

generating prodigious amounts of data.

stvarajući iscrpne količine podataka.

Increasingly sophisticated analytics

Sve sofisticiranije raščlanjavanje,

then sift through the data,

zatim ispitivanje svih podataka,

providing insights that allow us

daje uvid koji nam omogućava

to operate the machines in entirely new ways,

da upravljamo mašinama na potpuno nove načine,

a lot more efficiently.

mnogo efikasnije.

And not just individual machines,

I to ne samo pojedine mašine,

but fleets of locomotives, airplanes,

već flote lokomotiva, aviona,

entire systems like power grids, hospitals.

celokupnih sistema kao što su energetske mreže, bolnice.

It is asset optimization and system optimization.

To je optimizacija imovine i optimizacija sistema.

Of course, electronic sensors

Naravno, elektronski senzori

have been around for some time,

su tu već neko vreme,

but something has changed:

ali nešto se promenilo:

a sharp decline in the cost of sensors

oštar pad cene senzora

and, thanks to advances in cloud computing,

i zahvaljujući napretku računarstva u oblaku

a rapid decrease in the cost of storing

rapidno su se smanjili troškovi skladištenja

and processing data.

i obrade podataka.

So we are moving to a world

Dakle, selimo se u svet

where the machines we work with

u kome su mašine sa kojim radimo

are not just intelligent; they are brilliant.

ne samo inteligentne, već brilijantne.

They are self-aware, they are predictive,

One su samosvesne, predskazujuće,

reactive and social.

reaktivne i društvene.

It's jet engines, locomotives, gas turbines,

To su mlazni motori, lokomotive, gasne turbine,

medical devices, communicating seamlessly

medicinski uređaji, koji s lakoćom komuniciraju

with each other and with us.

jedni s drugima i sa nama.

It's a world where information itself

U tom svetu sama informacija

becomes intelligent and comes to us

postaje inteligentna i dolazi nam

automatically when we need it

automatski kad nam je potrebna

without having to look for it.

bez potrebe da je tražimo.

We are beginning to deploy

Počinjemo da primenjujemo

throughout the industrial system

širom industrijskog sistema

embedded virtualization,

ugrađenu virtualizaciju,

multi-core processor technology,

višejezgarne procesore,

advanced cloud-based communications,

napredne komunikacije iz oblaka,

a new software-defined machine infrastructure

novu, softverski definisanu mašinsku infrastrukturu

which allows machine functionality

koja omogućava da mašinska funkcionalnost

to become virtualized in software,

postane virtualizirana u softveru,

decoupling machine software from hardware,

razdvajanjem mašinskog softvera od hardvera

and allowing us to remotely and automatically

i dopušta nam da daljinski i automatski

monitor, manage and upgrade industrial assets.

pratimo, upravljamo i nadograđujemo industrijska postrojenja.

Why does any of this matter at all?

Zašto bi nas se bilo šta od toga uopšte ticalo?

Well first of all, it's already allowing us

Pa, pre svega, to nam već dopušta

to shift towards preventive,

pomak prema preventivnom,

condition-based maintenance,

održavanju po potrebi,

which means fixing machines

što znači popravljanje mašina

just before they break,

neposredno pre nego što se pokvare,

without wasting time

bez gubljenja vremena

servicing them on a fixed schedule.

za servisiranje prema utvrđenom rasporedu.

And this, in turn, is pushing us towards

A to nas dalje vodi prema

zero unplanned downtime,

nuli neplaniranih ispada,

which means there will be no more power outages,

što znači da neće biti nijednog nestanka struje,

no more flight delays.

niti zakasnelog leta.

So let me give you a few examples

Dopustite mi da vam dam nekoliko primera

of how these brilliant machines work,

kako ove brilijantne mašine rade,

and some of the examples may seem trivial,

iako neki od primera mogu izgledati trivijalno,

some are clearly more profound,

neki su očigledno dublji,

but all of them are going to have a very powerful impact.

ali će svi imati vrlo snažan uticaj.

Let's start with aviation.

Počnimo sa avijacijom.

Today, 10 percent of all flights

Danas 10 posto svih

cancellations and delays

otkazanih i zakasnelih letova

are due to unscheduled maintenance events.

nastaje usled nepredvidljivosti u održavanju.

Something goes wrong unexpectedly.

Neočekivano nešto krene loše.

This results in eight billion dollars in costs

Rezultat toga je 8 milijardi dolara troškova

for the airline industry globally every year,

za avio industriju na globalnom nivou svake godine,

not to mention the impact on all of us:

da ne spominjem uticaj na sve nas:

stress, inconvenience,

stres, neprijatnosti,

missed meetings as we sit helplessly

propušteni sastanci dok bespomoćno sedimo

in an airport terminal.

na aerodromu.

So how can the industrial Internet help here?

Kako može industrijski internet ovde pomoći?

We've developed a preventive maintenance system

Razvili smo preventivni sistem za održavanje

which can be installed on any aircraft.

koji se može instalirati na svaki avion.

It's self-learning and able to predict issues

On se sam uči i može da predvidi pitanja

that a human operator would miss.

koja bi čovek propustio.

The aircraft, while in flight,

Dok je avion u letu

will communicate with technicians on the ground.

komuniciraće sa tehničarima na terenu.

By the time it lands, they will already know

Do sletanja oni će već znati

if anything needs to be serviced.

ako nešto treba da se servisira.

Just in the U.S., a system like this can prevent

Samo u SAD-u ovakav sistem može da spreči

over 60,000 delays and cancellations every year,

više od 60.000 kašnjenja i otkazivanja svake godine,

helping seven million passengers

pomažući da 7 miliona putnika

get to their destinations on time.

stigne do svojih odredišta na vreme.

Or take healthcare.

Ili uzmimo zdravstvo.

Today, nurses spend an average

Danas, medicinske sestre prosečno potroše

of 21 minutes per shift

21 minut po smeni

looking for medical equipment.

u potrazi za medicinskom opremom.

That seems trivial, but it's less time spent

To izgleda trivijalno, ali to je manje vremena

caring for patients.

posvećenog pacijentima.

St. Luke's Medical Center in Houston, Texas,

Medicinski centar Svetog Luke u Hjustonu u Teksasu,

which has deployed industrial Internet technology

koji je primenio industrijsku internetsku tehnologiju

to electronically monitor and connect

za elektronski nadzor i povezivanje

patients, staff and medical equipment,

pacijenata, osoblja i medicinske opreme,

has reduced bed turnaround times

smanjio je vreme smenjivanja kreveta

by nearly one hour.

za skoro jedan sat.

If you need surgery, one hour matters.

Ako vam je operacija potrebna, jedan sat je bitan.

It means more patients can be treated,

To znači da se više pacijenata može lečiti

more lives can be saved.

i više života spasiti.

Another medical center, in Washington state,

Drugi medicinski centar, u državi Vašington,

is piloting an application that allows

isprobava aplikaciju kojom

medical images from city scanners and MRIs

se medicinski snimci iz gradskih skenera i magnetne rezonance

to be analyzed in the cloud,

analiziraju u oblaku

developing better analytics

da bi se razvijala bolja analitika

at a lower cost.

po nižoj ceni.

Imagine a patient

Zamislite pacijenta

who has suffered a severe trauma,

koji je pretrpeo tešku traumu,

and needs the attention of several specialists:

i potrebna mu je pažnja nekoliko stručnjaka:

a neurologist, a cardiologist,

neurologa, kardiologa

an orthopedic surgeon.

i hirurga ortopedije.

If all of them can have instantaneous and simultaneous access

Ako svi oni mogu momentalno i simultano da pristupe

to scans and images as they are taken,

skenerima i snimcima,

they will be able to deliver better healthcare faster.

moći će da pruže bolju zdravstvenu zaštitu brže.

So all of this translates into better health outcomes,

Dakle, sve to se pretvara u bolje zdravstvene ishode,

but it can also deliver substantial economic benefits.

ali takođe doprinosi znatnim ekonomskim koristima.

Just a one-percent reduction in existing inefficiencies

Ako bi se samo za 1 posto smanjile postojeće neefikasnosti

could yield savings of over 60 billion dollars

moglo bi se uštedeti više od 60 milijardi dolara

to the healthcare industry worldwide,

u svetskoj zdravstvenoj industriji,

and that is just a drop in the sea

a to je samo kap u moru

compared to what we need to do to make healthcare

upoređujući sa onim šta bi trebalo da uradimo da bi zdravstvo

affordable on a sustainable basis.

bilo pristupačno na održivoj osnovi.

Similar advances are happening in energy,

Sličan napredak se događa u energetici,

including renewable energy.

uključujući obnovljive energije.

Wind farms equipped with new remote monitorings and diagnostics

Vetroelektrane opremljene novim daljinskim praćenjima i dijagnostikama

that allow wind turbines to talk to each other

koje omogućavaju turbinama da razgovaraju jedna s drugom

and adjust the pitch of their blades in a coordinated way,

i da koordinirano prilagođavaju visinu svojih lopatica,

depending on how the wind is blowing,

u zavisnosti od toga kako vetar duva,

can now produce electricity at a cost

sada proizvode struju po ceni

of less than five cents per kilowatt/hour.

nižoj od 5 centi po kilovatu na sat.

Ten years ago, that cost was 30 cents,

Pre 10 godina je taj trošak bio 30 centi,

six times as much.

šest puta viši.

The list goes on, and it will grow fast,

Spisak se produžava i narašće brzo,

because industrial data are now growing exponentially.

jer industrijski podaci sada rastu eksponencijalno

By 2020, they will account for over 50 percent

i do 2020. će iznositi preko 50 posto

of all digital information.

od svih digitalnih informacija.

But this is not just about data, so let me switch gears

No, ne radi se samo o podacima, pa ću se prebaciti

and tell you how this is impacting already

i reći vam kako to već sad utiče

the jobs we do every day,

na svakodnevne poslove,

because this new wave of innovation

jer ovaj novi talas inovacija

is bringing about new tools and applications

donosi nove alate i aplikacije

that will allow us to collaborate

koje će nam omogućiti saradnju

in a smarter and faster way,

na pametniji i brži način,

making our jobs not just more efficient

čineći naše poslove ne samo efikasnijim

but more rewarding.

već i smislenijim.

Imagine a field engineer arriving at the wind farm

Zamislite odgovarajućeg inženjera koji u vetroelektrani

with a handheld device telling her

sa ručnog uređaja govori

which turbines need servicing.

koje turbine je potrebno servisirati.

She already has all the spare parts,

Na njoj već postoje rezervni delovi,

because the problems were diagnosed in advanced.

jer su problemi bili dijagnostikovani unapred.

And if she faces an unexpected issue,

Ukoliko joj se pojavi neočekivani problem,

the same handheld device will allow her to

isti ručni uređaj će joj omogućiti

communicate with colleagues at the service center,

komuniciranje s kolegama na servisu,

let them see what she sees,

predočiće im ono što ona vidi,

transmit data that they can run through diagnostics,

prenoseći podatke koji rade preko dijagnostike,

and they can stream videos that will guide her,

a oni mogu da emituju video snimke koji će je voditi,

step by step, through whatever complex procedure

korak po korak, kroz bilo kakav složen postupak,

is needed to get the machines back up and running.

potreban da se mašine vrate u pogon.

And their interaction gets documented

Njihova interakcija se dokumentuje

and stored in a searchable database.

i čuva u pretraživoj bazi podataka.

Let's stop and think about this for a minute,

Zaustavimo se i promislimo o tome za minutu,

because this is a very important point.

jer je to vrlo važna stvar.

This new wave of innovation is fundamentally

Ovaj novi talas inovacija iz temelja

changing the way we work.

menja način na koji radimo.

And I know that many of you will be concerned about the impact that innovation might have on jobs.

I znam da će mnoge od vas zabrinuti mogući uticaj inovacije na poslove.

Unemployment is already high,

Nezaposlenost je već visoka,

and there is always a fear that innovation will destroy jobs.

a uvek postoji strah da će inovacija uništiti radna mesta.

And innovation is disruptive.

Inovacija je ta što remeti.

But let me stress two things here.

No, dopustite mi da naglasim dve stvari.

First, we've already lived through

Prvo, već smo preživeli

mechanization of agriculture, automation of industry,

mehanizaciju poljoprivrede, automatizaciju industrije

and employment has gone up,

i zapošljavanje je poraslo,

because innovation is fundamentally about growth.

jer je inovacija vezana za rast.

It makes products more affordable.

Ona čini proizvode pristupačnijim.

It creates new demand, new jobs.

Stvara novu potražnju, nova radna mesta.

Second, there is a concern that in the future,

Drugo, postoji bojazan da će u budućnosti

there will only be room for engineers,

biti prostora samo za inženjere,

data scientists, and other highly-specialized workers.

naučnike podataka i druge visoko-specijalizovane radnike.

And believe me, as an economist, I am also scared.

Verujte mi da sam se kao ekonomista takođe uplašio.

But think about it:

Ali razmislite:

Just as a child can easily figure out

baš kao što dete može lako da shvati

how to operate an iPad,

kako radi Ajped,

so a new generation of mobile and intuitive

tako će nova generacija mobilnih i intuitivnih

industrial applications will make life easier

industrijskih aplikacija olakšati život

for workers of all skill levels.

radnicima svih nivoa veštine.

The worker of the future will be more like Iron Man

Radnik će u budućnosti biti više nalik "Ajron menu"

than the Charlie Chaplin of "Modern Times."

nego Čarliju Čaplinu iz "Modernog vremena".

And to be sure, new high-skilled jobs will be created:

I sigurno će se pojaviti novi visoko-kvalifikovani poslovi:

mechanical digital engineers who understand

mehanički digitalni inženjeri koji razumeju

both the machines and the data;

i mašine i podatke;

managers who understand their industry

menadžeri koji razumeju svoju industriju

and the analytics and can reorganize the business

i analitiku i koji mogu da reorganizuju poslovanje

to take full advantage of the technology.

i najviše pridobiju tehnologijom.

But now let's take a step back.

No, vratimo se korak nazad.

Let's look at the big picture.

Pogledajmo širu sliku.

There are people who argue that today's innovation

Postoje ljudi koji tvrde da je današnja inovacija

is all about social media and silly games,

vezana za društvene medije i glupe igre,

with nowhere near the transformational power

sa snagom preobražaja koja nije ni blizu onoj

of the Industrial Revolution.

industrijske revolucije.

They say that all the growth-enhancing innovations

Kažu da su sve inovacije za povećanje rasta

are behind us.

iza nas.

And every time I hear this, I can't help thinking that

I svaki put kad to čujem, ne mogu se oteti dojmu

even back in the Stone Age,

da je čak i u kameno doba,

there must have been a group of cavemen

morala postojati grupa pećinskih ljudi

sitting around a fire one day

koji su sedeći oko vatre jednog dana,

looking very grumpy,

vrlo prgavog izgleda,

and looking disapprovingly at another group of cavemen

gledali sa neodobravanjem na drugu grupu pećinskih ljudi

rolling a stone wheel up and down a hill,

koji su kotrljali kameni točak uz i niz breg,

and saying to each other,

govoreći jedni drugima:

"Yeah, this wheel thing,

"Da, taj točak jeste

cool toy, sure, but compared to fire,

kul igračka, ali u poređenju sa vatrom,

it will have no impact.

neće imati uticaja.

The big discoveries are all behind us."

Velika otkrića su iza nas ".

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

This technological revolution

Ova tehnološka revolucija

is as inspiring and transformational

je jednako inspirativna i preobražajna

as anything we have ever seen.

kao bilo šta što smo ikada videli.

Human creativity and innovation have always propelled us forward.

Ljudska kreativnost i inovativnost su nas uvek gonile napred.

They've created jobs.

Kreirale su radna mesta.

They've raised living standards.

Podigle su životne standarde.

They've made our lives

Učinile su naše živote

healthier and more rewarding.

zdravijim i vrednijim.

And the new wave of innovation

A novi talas inovacija

which is beginning to sweep through industry

koji počinje da se širi industrijom

is no different.

nije drukčiji.

In the U.S. alone, the industrial Internet

Samo u SAD-u bi industrijski internet

could raise average income by 25 to 40 percent

mogao podići prosečne prihode za 25 do 40 posto

over the next 15 years,

u idućih 15 godina,

boosting growth to rates we haven't seen in a long time,

podsticanjem rasta po stopama neviđenim već dugo vremena,

and adding between 10 and 15 trillion dollars to global GDP.

i dodavanjem između 10 i 15 biliona dolara globalnom BDP-u.

That is the size of the entire U.S. economy today.

To je iznos celokupne današnje američke privrede.

But this is not a foregone conclusion.

Ali ovo nije preuranjen zaključak.

We are just at the beginning of this transformation,

Tek smo na početku ove transformacije

and there will be barriers to break,

i biće prepreka za probijanje,

obstacles to overcome.

smetnji za savlađivanje.

We will need to invest in the new technologies.

Moraćemo ulagati u nove tehnologije

We will need to adapt organizations and managerial practices.

i prilagoditi organizacije i menadžerske prakse.

We will need a robust cybersecurity approach

Trebaće nam robustan pristup sajber obezbeđenju

that protects sensitive information and intellectual property

koji štiti osetljive informacije i intelektualnu svojinu

and safeguards critical infrastructure from cyberattacks.

i daje zaštitu kritičnoj infrastrukturi od sajber napada.

And the education system will need to evolve

I obrazovni sistem će morati da se razvija

to ensure students are equipped with the right skills.

da bi opremio studente pravim veštinama.

It's not going to be easy,

To neće biti lako,

but it is going to be worth it.

ali će biti toga vredno.

The economic challenges facing us are hard,

Ekonomski izazovi s kojima se suočavamo su teški,

but when I walk the factory floor,

ali dok prolazim fabrikom

and I see how humans and brilliant machines

i vidim kako ljudi i brilijantne mašine

are becoming interconnected,

postaju međusobno povezani

and I see the difference this makes

i kakva je to razlika

in a hospital, in an airport,

u bolnici, na aerodromu,

in a power generation plant, I'm not just optimistic,

u elektroenergetskom postrojenju, nisam samo optimističan,

I'm enthusiastic.

već i entuzijastičan.

This new technological revolution is upon us.

Ova nova tehnološka revolucija je pred nama.

So think about the future — it will be here soon enough.

Dakle, razmišljajte o budućnosti - biće ovde uskoro.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)