Marco Annunziata: Welcome to the age of the industrial internet

翻译人员: Peipei Xiang 校对人员: Wei Wu

Einstein said that

爱因斯坦曾说过：

"I never think about the future — it comes soon enough."

“我从来不去想未来， 因为它来得已经够快的了。”

And he was right, of course.

当然，他说得对。

So today, I'm here to ask you to think of

今天我站在这里就是要让大家思考

how the future is happening now.

未来如何正在我们眼前展开。

Over the past 200 years, the world has experienced

在过去的200年里，人类经历了

two major waves of innovation.

两波巨大的创新。

First, the Industrial Revolution

第一波是工业革命

brought us machines and factories, railways,

给我们带来了机器、工厂、铁路、

electricity, air travel,

电能、飞机，

and our lives have never been the same.

从此我们的生活大不相同。

Then the Internet revolution

最近的互联网革命

brought us computing power, data networks,

给我们带来了强大的运算能力、数据网络、

unprecedented access

和史无前例的获取信息和进行沟通的能力，

to information and communication,

和史无前例的获取信息和进行沟通的能力，

and our lives have never been the same.

从此我们的生活大不相同。

Now we are experiencing

如今，我们正在期待

another metamorphic change:

另一场质的变化：

the industrial Internet.

物联网。

It brings together intelligent machines,

它将不同的智能机器、

advanced analytics,

先进的分析技术、

and the creativity of people at work.

和人类的创造力结合在一起，进行工作。

It's the marriage of minds and machines.

它是大脑和机器的结合。

And our lives will never be the same.

从此我们的生活将大不相同。

In my current role, I see up close

我目前的工作使我可以近距离地看到

how technology is beginning to transform

科技正在改变

industrial sectors that play a huge role

那些在我们的经济和生活中

in our economy and in our lives:

扮演了重要角色的工业部门，

energy, aviation, transportation, health care.

比如能源、航空、交通、医疗保健等等。

For an economist, this is highly unusual,

对一个经济学家来说，这是非比寻常

and it's extremely exciting,

更是让人极度兴奋的，

because this is a transformation

因为这是和工业革命一样强大

as powerful as the Industrial Revolution and more,

甚至更强大的转型，

and before the Industrial Revolution,

在工业革命之前，

there was no economic growth to speak of.

完全无经济增长可言。

So what is this industrial Internet?

那么这个物联网究竟是什么？

Industrial machines are being equipped

工业机器正被装上

with a growing number of electronic sensors

越来越多的传感器，

that allow them to see, hear, feel

这使得它们能够具备视觉、听觉和其它感觉

a lot more than ever before,

比以前强大多了，

generating prodigious amounts of data.

它们可以产生惊人的数据量。

Increasingly sophisticated analytics

接着日益成熟的分析技术

then sift through the data,

对这些数据进行过滤，

providing insights that allow us

从而给我们提供了

to operate the machines in entirely new ways,

全新的、更有效率的

a lot more efficiently.

操作机器的方法。

And not just individual machines,

不仅仅是单一的机器，

but fleets of locomotives, airplanes,

还有整列火车、飞机、

entire systems like power grids, hospitals.

甚至整个电网、医院等等。

It is asset optimization and system optimization.

它可以做到资源和系统的最优化。

Of course, electronic sensors

当然，传感器

have been around for some time,

已经存在了一段时间了，

but something has changed:

但是不同的是，

a sharp decline in the cost of sensors

感应器价格的急剧下降

and, thanks to advances in cloud computing,

还有多亏了云计算的发展，

a rapid decrease in the cost of storing

储存和处理数据的价格

and processing data.

大大下降了。

So we are moving to a world

所以我们正进入这样一个世界：

where the machines we work with

那里与我们打交道的机器

are not just intelligent; they are brilliant.

不仅聪明，而且绝顶聪明。

They are self-aware, they are predictive,

它们能感知自我，有预测能力，

reactive and social.

反应迅速，可以社交。

It's jet engines, locomotives, gas turbines,

飞机引擎、火车、燃气轮机、

medical devices, communicating seamlessly

医疗器械可以互相之间、

with each other and with us.

以及和我们流畅地沟通。

It's a world where information itself

在这个世界，信息变得

becomes intelligent and comes to us

如此聪明，它会在我们

automatically when we need it

需要它的时候自动出现，

without having to look for it.

而不需要我们去寻找。

We are beginning to deploy

我们已经开始在

throughout the industrial system

整个工业系统中进行部署

embedded virtualization,

嵌入式虚拟化技术，

multi-core processor technology,

多核处理器技术，

advanced cloud-based communications,

先进的基于云的通信技术，

a new software-defined machine infrastructure

新的软件定义的机器基础设施——

which allows machine functionality

这使得机器

to become virtualized in software,

成为虚拟化软件，

decoupling machine software from hardware,

使机器的软件和硬件脱钩，

and allowing us to remotely and automatically

并允许我们远距离地、自动地

monitor, manage and upgrade industrial assets.

监测、管理以及升级工业设备。

Why does any of this matter at all?

这些与我们有任何关系吗？

Well first of all, it's already allowing us

首先，它已经使我们

to shift towards preventive,

能够转向预防性的、

condition-based maintenance,

基于条件的机器维护，

which means fixing machines

也就是在机器即将坏掉之前

just before they break,

就把它修理好，

without wasting time

而不是浪费时间

servicing them on a fixed schedule.

按照固定日程进行检修。

And this, in turn, is pushing us towards

而这意味着

zero unplanned downtime,

零计划外故障时间，

which means there will be no more power outages,

也就是说，再也不会停电、

no more flight delays.

再也不会有飞机延误。

So let me give you a few examples

那么让我给大家举几个

of how these brilliant machines work,

这些绝顶聪明的机器如何运作的例子，

and some of the examples may seem trivial,

有些例子可能看上去微不足道，

some are clearly more profound,

有些看上去则明显更深远，

but all of them are going to have a very powerful impact.

但是所有的都会产生非常巨大的影响。

Let's start with aviation.

让我们从航空业开始。

Today, 10 percent of all flights

现今，10%的航班

cancellations and delays

取消或延误

are due to unscheduled maintenance events.

是由于临时的维护事件。

Something goes wrong unexpectedly.

突然有个部分出问题了。

This results in eight billion dollars in costs

每年全球的航空业要因此

for the airline industry globally every year,

遭受80亿美元的损失，

not to mention the impact on all of us:

更不用提这些事件对我们的影响了：

stress, inconvenience,

压力，不方便，

missed meetings as we sit helplessly

无助地坐在机场航站楼，

in an airport terminal.

眼睁睁地错过会议。

So how can the industrial Internet help here?

那物联网在此能起到什么作用呢？

We've developed a preventive maintenance system

我们开发了一套预防性的维护系统，

which can be installed on any aircraft.

它可以被安装在任何一架飞机上。

It's self-learning and able to predict issues

它有自学的能力，能否预测

that a human operator would miss.

容易被人类操作员忽视的问题。

The aircraft, while in flight,

飞机在飞行过程中，

will communicate with technicians on the ground.

会跟地面的技术人员保持沟通。

By the time it lands, they will already know

等到降落的时候，他们就已经知道

if anything needs to be serviced.

是否有任何部分需要维护。

Just in the U.S., a system like this can prevent

仅在美国，这样一个系统就可以预防

over 60,000 delays and cancellations every year,

每年超过6万次的延误和取消，

helping seven million passengers

帮助700万的乘客

get to their destinations on time.

准时到达他们的目的地。

Or take healthcare.

再以医疗行业为例：

Today, nurses spend an average

今天，护士们平均要花

of 21 minutes per shift

每轮21分钟

looking for medical equipment.

寻找医疗设备。

That seems trivial, but it's less time spent

这看上去微不足道，

caring for patients.

但这却让病人得到照顾的时间变少了

St. Luke's Medical Center in Houston, Texas,

位于德克萨斯休斯敦的圣路加医疗中心

which has deployed industrial Internet technology

已经利用了物联网技术

to electronically monitor and connect

来监测，以及连接

patients, staff and medical equipment,

病人、工作人员和医疗设备，

has reduced bed turnaround times

这使得其床位周转时间

by nearly one hour.

减少了近一个小时。

If you need surgery, one hour matters.

如果你急需做手术，一个小时很重要。

It means more patients can be treated,

这意味着更多的病人可以得到治疗，

more lives can be saved.

更多的生命可以被拯救。

Another medical center, in Washington state,

另一个在华盛顿州的医疗中心，

is piloting an application that allows

正在试验一项应用，这项应用使得

medical images from city scanners and MRIs

CT扫描和核磁共振的结果

to be analyzed in the cloud,

能够在云端进行分析，

developing better analytics

分析的效果更好

at a lower cost.

价格也更低。

Imagine a patient

想象一下

who has suffered a severe trauma,

一位刚刚遭受了重创的病人，

and needs the attention of several specialists:

他需要多个领域专家的会诊：

a neurologist, a cardiologist,

神经科医师，心脏病专家，

an orthopedic surgeon.

整形外科医生。

If all of them can have instantaneous and simultaneous access

如果他们可以即时地在同一时间看到

to scans and images as they are taken,

扫描结果和图像，

they will be able to deliver better healthcare faster.

他们就能够提供更好更快的医疗。

So all of this translates into better health outcomes,

所有的这些都意味着更好的健康，

but it can also deliver substantial economic benefits.

同时还可以产生可观的经济效益。

Just a one-percent reduction in existing inefficiencies

现有的低效率仅减少1%

could yield savings of over 60 billion dollars

就可以节约全球医疗行业

to the healthcare industry worldwide,

600亿美元，

and that is just a drop in the sea

而这只是沧海一粟，

compared to what we need to do to make healthcare

要打造价格实惠的可持续的医疗，

affordable on a sustainable basis.

我们需要做的还有很多。

Similar advances are happening in energy,

同样的技术进步也正被能源行业发生着，

including renewable energy.

包括可再生能源。

Wind farms equipped with new remote monitorings and diagnostics

装有新的遥控监测和诊断的风电场，

that allow wind turbines to talk to each other

风力涡轮机之间可以互相沟通

and adjust the pitch of their blades in a coordinated way,

并根据风的情况协调

depending on how the wind is blowing,

调整其叶片的角度，

can now produce electricity at a cost

现在每产生一度电

of less than five cents per kilowatt/hour.

成本可以降低到5美分

Ten years ago, that cost was 30 cents,

十年前，这需要30美分，

six times as much.

是现在的6倍。

The list goes on, and it will grow fast,

其他的例子还有很多，并在不断增加，

because industrial data are now growing exponentially.

因为物联网的数据正以指数型增长。

By 2020, they will account for over 50 percent

到2020年，物联网产生的数据会占到

of all digital information.

电子数据总量的50%以上。

But this is not just about data, so let me switch gears

但这不仅仅是关于数据，

and tell you how this is impacting already

下面我要跟大家说说这已经正在影响

the jobs we do every day,

我们每天做的工作，

because this new wave of innovation

因为这新一波的创新

is bringing about new tools and applications

给我们带来了新的工具和应用，

that will allow us to collaborate

使我们能够更聪明

in a smarter and faster way,

更快地合作，

making our jobs not just more efficient

不仅让我们的工作更有效率，

but more rewarding.

也更有价值。

Imagine a field engineer arriving at the wind farm

想象一下一个来到风电场的现场工程师，

with a handheld device telling her

她带着一个手持式装置，她已经知道

which turbines need servicing.

哪个涡轮需要维护。

She already has all the spare parts,

她已经带来了所有需要的部件，

because the problems were diagnosed in advanced.

因为问题已经事先被诊断过了。

And if she faces an unexpected issue,

如果她碰到了意料之外的问题，

the same handheld device will allow her to

这个手持式装置使得她可以

communicate with colleagues at the service center,

和在服务中心的同事沟通，

let them see what she sees,

让他们看见现场，

transmit data that they can run through diagnostics,

给他们发送用于诊断的数据，

and they can stream videos that will guide her,

然后他们可以现场视频指导她，

step by step, through whatever complex procedure

一步一步，不管程序多复杂，

is needed to get the machines back up and running.

最终修好机器并使其成功运转。

And their interaction gets documented

他们的这个互动过程被记录下来

and stored in a searchable database.

并存储在一个可搜索的数据库里面。

Let's stop and think about this for a minute,

让我们停下来思考一下，

because this is a very important point.

这里有个非常重要的点。

This new wave of innovation is fundamentally

这新一轮的创新正在从根本上

changing the way we work.

改变我们工作的方式。

And I know that many of you will be concerned about the impact that innovation might have on jobs.

我知道你们很多人担心这些创新 可能会对工作机会带来的影响。

Unemployment is already high,

失业率已经很高了，

and there is always a fear that innovation will destroy jobs.

而创新会消灭工作机会的担忧总是挥之不去。

And innovation is disruptive.

创新是颠覆性的。

But let me stress two things here.

但是让我强调两点。

First, we've already lived through

首先，我们已经经历过了

mechanization of agriculture, automation of industry,

农业机械化，工业自动化，

and employment has gone up,

最终就业率上去了，

because innovation is fundamentally about growth.

因为创新是刺激增长的根本动力。

It makes products more affordable.

它让产品的价格更实惠，

It creates new demand, new jobs.

它创造了新的需求，新的工作。

Second, there is a concern that in the future,

第二，有人担心未来

there will only be room for engineers,

会只需要工程师、

data scientists, and other highly-specialized workers.

数据科学家，以及其他高度专业化的劳动者。

And believe me, as an economist, I am also scared.

相信我，作为一个经济学家，我也很害怕。

But think about it:

但是你想想：

Just as a child can easily figure out

正如一个小孩很容易就搞清楚

how to operate an iPad,

如何操作一个iPad，

so a new generation of mobile and intuitive

新一代的移动的直观的

industrial applications will make life easier

工业应用会让不同技术程度的

for workers of all skill levels.

工作者的生活都变得更容易。

The worker of the future will be more like Iron Man

未来的工作者会更像一个钢铁侠，

than the Charlie Chaplin of "Modern Times."

而不是“摩登时代”中的查理·卓别林。

And to be sure, new high-skilled jobs will be created:

毋庸置疑，新的高技术含量的工作会被创造出来：

mechanical digital engineers who understand

比如机械数据工程师，他们

both the machines and the data;

不仅懂得机器，还懂数据(分析)；

managers who understand their industry

那些熟悉自己所在的行业

and the analytics and can reorganize the business

又懂数据分析技术的经理，可以利用这些技术

to take full advantage of the technology.

重新组织自己的工作使利益最大化。

But now let's take a step back.

现在让我们退一步。

Let's look at the big picture.

让我们看一下大的场景。

There are people who argue that today's innovation

有人称现在的创新

is all about social media and silly games,

都是关于社交媒体和无聊的游戏，

with nowhere near the transformational power

其变革的力量与工业革命时期

of the Industrial Revolution.

相差甚远。

They say that all the growth-enhancing innovations

他们说那些促进增长的创新

are behind us.

已经过去了。

And every time I hear this, I can't help thinking that

每次我听到这些的时候，我就忍不住想：

even back in the Stone Age,

即使在石器时代，

there must have been a group of cavemen

肯定也有那么一群洞穴人

sitting around a fire one day

某一天坐在篝火旁，

looking very grumpy,

看上去有点生气，

and looking disapprovingly at another group of cavemen

不悦地看着另一群将一个石轮子

rolling a stone wheel up and down a hill,

在山上来回滚动的洞穴人。

and saying to each other,

并互相说：

"Yeah, this wheel thing,

“这个轮子的东西，

cool toy, sure, but compared to fire,

不错，是好玩，但是和火比起来，

it will have no impact.

肯定用处不大。

The big discoveries are all behind us."

伟大的发现都已经过去啦。”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

This technological revolution

这一波的技术创新

is as inspiring and transformational

和以往的任何创新一样

as anything we have ever seen.

鼓舞人心，会带来变革。

Human creativity and innovation have always propelled us forward.

人类的创造力和创新一直推动着我们前进。

They've created jobs.

它们创造了工作。

They've raised living standards.

它们提高了生活水平。

They've made our lives

它们使我们的生活

healthier and more rewarding.

更健康更有价值。

And the new wave of innovation

而这新一波刚刚开始

which is beginning to sweep through industry

席卷各个行业的创新

is no different.

也是如此。

In the U.S. alone, the industrial Internet

仅在美国，物联网

could raise average income by 25 to 40 percent

在接下来的15年里，就可以将收入

over the next 15 years,

提高平均25%到40%，

boosting growth to rates we haven't seen in a long time,

带给我们久别的快速经济增长，

and adding between 10 and 15 trillion dollars to global GDP.

并给全球GDP增加10到15万亿美元。

That is the size of the entire U.S. economy today.

这是当今美国的经济总量。

But this is not a foregone conclusion.

但这还没有发生。

We are just at the beginning of this transformation,

我们正处于这场变革的开始，

and there will be barriers to break,

途中会遇到各种困难

obstacles to overcome.

需要我们去克服。

We will need to invest in the new technologies.

我们需要投资新的技术，

We will need to adapt organizations and managerial practices.

我们需要调整组织和管理实践，

We will need a robust cybersecurity approach

我们需要强大的网络安全管理技术

that protects sensitive information and intellectual property

来保护敏感信息和知识产权

and safeguards critical infrastructure from cyberattacks.

以及关键基础设施，免遭网络攻击。

And the education system will need to evolve

我们的教育系统也需要改进，

to ensure students are equipped with the right skills.

以保障学生获得相应的技能。

It's not going to be easy,

这个过程不会很容易，

but it is going to be worth it.

但是肯定会值得。

The economic challenges facing us are hard,

我们面临的经济挑战很艰难，

but when I walk the factory floor,

但是当我走进工厂，

and I see how humans and brilliant machines

看到人类和绝顶聪明的机器

are becoming interconnected,

相互协作，

and I see the difference this makes

我看到这将给

in a hospital, in an airport,

医院、机场，

in a power generation plant, I'm not just optimistic,

和发电厂带来的变化。我不仅乐观，

I'm enthusiastic.

我还非常期待。

This new technological revolution is upon us.

这一新的技术革命已经到来了。

So think about the future — it will be here soon enough.

所以想想未来吧，它很快就要到了。

Thank you.

谢谢！

(Applause)

（掌声）