Marco Annunziata: Welcome to the age of the industrial internet

138,462 views ・ 2013-12-17

TED


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譯者: Becky Ma 審譯者: Hao Li
00:13
Einstein said that
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愛因斯坦說:
00:14
"I never think about the future — it comes soon enough."
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「我從不去想未來——它來得夠快。」
00:17
And he was right, of course.
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當然,他是對的。
00:19
So today, I'm here to ask you to think of
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所以今天,我在這邀請大家一起來思考
00:22
how the future is happening now.
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如何從此刻預見未來。
00:25
Over the past 200 years, the world has experienced
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過去兩百年來,世界已經歷了
00:27
two major waves of innovation.
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兩波巨大的革新浪潮:
00:29
First, the Industrial Revolution
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第一個,是工業革命。
00:31
brought us machines and factories, railways,
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它帶給我們機器、工廠、鐵路、
00:34
electricity, air travel,
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電力、航空飛行,
00:36
and our lives have never been the same.
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使得我們的生活劇烈改變。
00:39
Then the Internet revolution
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再來是網路革命,
00:41
brought us computing power, data networks,
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它帶給我們速算能力、資料系統、
00:44
unprecedented access
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以及前所未有的
00:47
to information and communication,
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資訊來源和溝通方式,
00:49
and our lives have never been the same.
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而我們的生活不再與從前相同。
00:52
Now we are experiencing
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現在,我們正經歷著
00:54
another metamorphic change:
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另一項蛻變——
00:56
the industrial Internet.
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也就是「工業網路」。
00:58
It brings together intelligent machines,
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它融合了智慧型機器、
01:01
advanced analytics,
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進階分析
01:02
and the creativity of people at work.
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以及人類的創造力,
01:05
It's the marriage of minds and machines.
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它是頭腦和機器的聯姻,
01:08
And our lives will never be the same.
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而我們的生活將大大改變。
01:10
In my current role, I see up close
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以我現在的角色,我緊密觀察著
01:13
how technology is beginning to transform
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科技是如何開始改變那些
01:16
industrial sectors that play a huge role
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在我們的經濟以及生活中
01:19
in our economy and in our lives:
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都扮演重大角色的工業因素:
01:21
energy, aviation, transportation, health care.
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能源、飛航、運輸,以及健康照護。
01:26
For an economist, this is highly unusual,
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對一個經濟學家而言,這非比尋常,
01:28
and it's extremely exciting,
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而且十分令人興奮。
01:30
because this is a transformation
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因為這是一個比起工業革命,
01:32
as powerful as the Industrial Revolution and more,
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力量有過之而無不及的改變。
01:36
and before the Industrial Revolution,
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而且在工業革命前,
01:37
there was no economic growth to speak of.
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世界尚未有顯著的經濟成長。
01:40
So what is this industrial Internet?
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那麼這「工業網路」究竟是什麼呢?
01:43
Industrial machines are being equipped
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工業機器開始配備了
01:45
with a growing number of electronic sensors
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更多的電子感應器,
01:48
that allow them to see, hear, feel
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使得它們能夠看到、聽到、感受到
01:51
a lot more than ever before,
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得到比以前更多的訊息,
01:53
generating prodigious amounts of data.
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並產生驚人的資料量。
01:56
Increasingly sophisticated analytics
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接著更加複雜的分析機制
01:58
then sift through the data,
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便開始過濾這些資料,
02:00
providing insights that allow us
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從中提供許多訊息
02:02
to operate the machines in entirely new ways,
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讓我們能用全新方式運用這些機器,
02:05
a lot more efficiently.
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大幅提升效率。
02:07
And not just individual machines,
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不只是單獨的機器,
02:09
but fleets of locomotives, airplanes,
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連火車、飛機,
02:12
entire systems like power grids, hospitals.
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甚至輸電系統、醫院內部都能跟進,
02:15
It is asset optimization and system optimization.
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這是資本最大化和系統的最佳運用。
02:19
Of course, electronic sensors
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當然,電子感應器
02:21
have been around for some time,
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已經存在很久,
02:23
but something has changed:
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但有件事卻改變了:
02:25
a sharp decline in the cost of sensors
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感應器價格的大幅下跌。
02:28
and, thanks to advances in cloud computing,
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並且,因為雲端運算的進步,
02:30
a rapid decrease in the cost of storing
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儲存與運算資料的價格
02:33
and processing data.
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都正迅速下降。
02:36
So we are moving to a world
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所以我們正朝一個新世界前進,
02:37
where the machines we work with
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跟我們一起工作的機器
02:39
are not just intelligent; they are brilliant.
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不但有智慧,甚至才華洋溢,
02:44
They are self-aware, they are predictive,
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它們會自我警覺、有預言能力,
02:46
reactive and social.
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能做出反應並且還有社交能力,
02:50
It's jet engines, locomotives, gas turbines,
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它們可以是噴射引擎、 火車頭、蒸氣渦輪、
02:54
medical devices, communicating seamlessly
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醫療器材,與彼此或與我們
02:56
with each other and with us.
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無縫地溝通,
02:59
It's a world where information itself
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這將會是個新世界。
03:01
becomes intelligent and comes to us
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資訊本身變得有智慧 並在我們需要的時候
03:03
automatically when we need it
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自動朝我們而來,
03:05
without having to look for it.
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而我們不需去找尋它,
03:08
We are beginning to deploy
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我們正開始
在整個工業系統內部署
03:10
throughout the industrial system
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03:12
embedded virtualization,
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內建的虛擬化程式,
03:14
multi-core processor technology,
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多核心的作業科技
03:16
advanced cloud-based communications,
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先進的雲端溝通,
03:20
a new software-defined machine infrastructure
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新的、構築在軟體上的機器基礎設施
03:22
which allows machine functionality
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能使機器的功能
03:25
to become virtualized in software,
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在軟體中被虛擬化,
03:28
decoupling machine software from hardware,
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將機器的軟體型態從硬體中分離開來,
03:31
and allowing us to remotely and automatically
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讓我們能夠遠端並且自動地
03:35
monitor, manage and upgrade industrial assets.
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監控、管理,以及升級工業資本。
03:40
Why does any of this matter at all?
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上述的這些到底有什麼意義呢?
03:43
Well first of all, it's already allowing us
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首先,它已經使我們能夠
03:45
to shift towards preventive,
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改採取有預防功用的
03:48
condition-based maintenance,
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依情況而定的維修方式。
03:50
which means fixing machines
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等同於在機器壞掉前
03:51
just before they break,
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就把它們修復
03:54
without wasting time
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而不必浪費時間
03:56
servicing them on a fixed schedule.
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定期檢查它們,
03:58
And this, in turn, is pushing us towards
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而這進而將我們推向
04:02
zero unplanned downtime,
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零無預警故障的時代。
04:04
which means there will be no more power outages,
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也就是說不再會有停電,
04:06
no more flight delays.
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也不再會有誤點班機。
04:09
So let me give you a few examples
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所以讓我給你們一些例子
04:10
of how these brilliant machines work,
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呈現出這些聰明機器是如何運作。
04:12
and some of the examples may seem trivial,
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而有些例子看似無關緊要,
04:14
some are clearly more profound,
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而另有一些就明顯地比較深奧,
04:16
but all of them are going to have a very powerful impact.
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但它們全部都將產生強大的影響力。
04:20
Let's start with aviation.
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先從航空開始吧。
04:22
Today, 10 percent of all flights
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今日,有 10% 的班機取消
04:25
cancellations and delays
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以及誤點情況,
04:27
are due to unscheduled maintenance events.
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是因為無預警地需要維修,
04:30
Something goes wrong unexpectedly.
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無法預料地,機器出了差錯,
04:32
This results in eight billion dollars in costs
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這造成了全球航空產業
04:35
for the airline industry globally every year,
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每年八十億美元的損失,
04:37
not to mention the impact on all of us:
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更不用提對我們造成的影響:
04:39
stress, inconvenience,
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壓力、不方便、錯過的會議,
04:42
missed meetings as we sit helplessly
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而我們只能無助地
04:44
in an airport terminal.
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坐在機場的候機大廳。
04:46
So how can the industrial Internet help here?
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在此情況下,工業網路 能派上什麼用場呢?
04:50
We've developed a preventive maintenance system
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我們已開發出了一個 預防性的維修系統
04:52
which can be installed on any aircraft.
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能安裝在任何飛行器上,
04:54
It's self-learning and able to predict issues
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它有自我學習功能,
04:58
that a human operator would miss.
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且能預測到操作員可能遺漏的事件。
05:01
The aircraft, while in flight,
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飛行器在飛行時
05:03
will communicate with technicians on the ground.
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能和地面的技術人員溝通,
05:05
By the time it lands, they will already know
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在它降落前,他們就已經知道
05:07
if anything needs to be serviced.
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哪裡需要服務。
05:10
Just in the U.S., a system like this can prevent
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光是在美國,這樣的系統每年就能
05:13
over 60,000 delays and cancellations every year,
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預防超過六萬個誤點和取消班機,
05:17
helping seven million passengers
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幫助七百萬個乘客
05:19
get to their destinations on time.
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準時抵達目的地。
05:22
Or take healthcare.
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或者,以健康照護為例,
05:23
Today, nurses spend an average
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今日,護士平均每個班次
05:25
of 21 minutes per shift
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要花 21 分鐘的時間
05:28
looking for medical equipment.
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尋找醫療器材,
05:29
That seems trivial, but it's less time spent
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這看起來瑣碎又微不足造,
05:34
caring for patients.
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但占用掉的是照顧病患的時間。
05:36
St. Luke's Medical Center in Houston, Texas,
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座落在德州休士頓的 聖路克醫療中心
05:39
which has deployed industrial Internet technology
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已經布署了工業網路的科技,
05:42
to electronically monitor and connect
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電子化管理且連結
05:44
patients, staff and medical equipment,
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病患、醫護人員和醫療器材,
05:47
has reduced bed turnaround times
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成功減少了
05:50
by nearly one hour.
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將近一小時的換床時間。
05:51
If you need surgery, one hour matters.
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如果需要手術的話, 一小時可是很重要的,
05:54
It means more patients can be treated,
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這代表有更多病患可接受治療,
05:57
more lives can be saved.
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有更多生命可被拯救。
05:59
Another medical center, in Washington state,
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另有一個在華盛頓州的醫療中心
06:02
is piloting an application that allows
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正領先運用這種概念
06:03
medical images from city scanners and MRIs
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讓掃描器和核磁共振所產生的影像
06:07
to be analyzed in the cloud,
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能在雲端被分析,
06:09
developing better analytics
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用較低的價格
06:11
at a lower cost.
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發展出更好的分析學。
06:14
Imagine a patient
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想像一個病患
06:15
who has suffered a severe trauma,
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受到嚴重創傷,
06:17
and needs the attention of several specialists:
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急需各種專家的注意:
06:20
a neurologist, a cardiologist,
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神經學家、心臟病權威
06:21
an orthopedic surgeon.
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以及整形外科醫生。
06:23
If all of them can have instantaneous and simultaneous access
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如果都能在病患接受掃描時
06:26
to scans and images as they are taken,
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同時取得及時的圖片,
06:29
they will be able to deliver better healthcare faster.
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他們就能更迅速地提供治療。
06:34
So all of this translates into better health outcomes,
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這一切不但意味著 更佳的健康照護成果,
06:37
but it can also deliver substantial economic benefits.
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也代表鉅額的經濟利益。
06:40
Just a one-percent reduction in existing inefficiencies
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只要現存的效率不佳能減少 1% ,
06:44
could yield savings of over 60 billion dollars
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就能在全世界的醫療產業中
06:47
to the healthcare industry worldwide,
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省下超過六百億美金。
06:50
and that is just a drop in the sea
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而這只是滄海一粟,
06:53
compared to what we need to do to make healthcare
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要打造價格實惠的 永續發展的醫療,
06:55
affordable on a sustainable basis.
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我們需要做的還有很多。
06:58
Similar advances are happening in energy,
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相似的進步也正發生在能源業界,
07:00
including renewable energy.
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包括可再生能源。
07:02
Wind farms equipped with new remote monitorings and diagnostics
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安裝了新型遠端遙控和 診斷器的風力發電機
07:07
that allow wind turbines to talk to each other
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容許風力渦輪彼此溝通
07:10
and adjust the pitch of their blades in a coordinated way,
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並彼此配合,
07:14
depending on how the wind is blowing,
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依風向而定調整葉片。
07:16
can now produce electricity at a cost
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這使得它們現在
07:18
of less than five cents per kilowatt/hour.
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能產生每度低於五分錢的電。
07:21
Ten years ago, that cost was 30 cents,
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十年前,價格是三十分錢,
07:23
six times as much.
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比起現在是六倍。
07:25
The list goes on, and it will grow fast,
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這樣的例子源源不絕, 而且會快速成長,
07:28
because industrial data are now growing exponentially.
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因為工業資料現在成級數成長。
07:30
By 2020, they will account for over 50 percent
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2020 年以前,它們就會在數位資訊中
07:33
of all digital information.
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佔據超過一半,
07:36
But this is not just about data, so let me switch gears
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但這不只和資料有關, 所以讓我轉換話題
07:39
and tell you how this is impacting already
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並告訴大家我們每天所做的工作
07:42
the jobs we do every day,
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已經如何受到影響,
07:43
because this new wave of innovation
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因為這波革新浪潮
07:45
is bringing about new tools and applications
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帶給我們新的工具和應用程式
07:48
that will allow us to collaborate
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使我們能
07:50
in a smarter and faster way,
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以更聰明、更快的方式合作,
07:52
making our jobs not just more efficient
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把我們的工作變得更有效率,
07:55
but more rewarding.
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也更有回報。
07:57
Imagine a field engineer arriving at the wind farm
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想像一個維修工程師 抵達風力發電廠,
08:00
with a handheld device telling her
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攜帶著一台手持裝置,
08:01
which turbines need servicing.
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那裝置正告訴她 哪些渦輪需要修理,
08:04
She already has all the spare parts,
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她已經準備好所有的替換零件,
08:05
because the problems were diagnosed in advanced.
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因為機器的問題 都被提前診斷出來了。
08:08
And if she faces an unexpected issue,
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而且假如她遇到突發狀況,
08:10
the same handheld device will allow her to
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也可使用那台裝置
08:13
communicate with colleagues at the service center,
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聯絡位於服務中心的同仁,
08:15
let them see what she sees,
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傳輸現場影像給他們看,
08:17
transmit data that they can run through diagnostics,
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傳輸資料讓他們進行診斷,
08:20
and they can stream videos that will guide her,
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而他們就可以傳來指導影片,
08:22
step by step, through whatever complex procedure
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無論再複雜的程序,她都能依指示
08:25
is needed to get the machines back up and running.
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一步步修復,直到機器修好恢復運作。
08:27
And their interaction gets documented
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而他們兩方的互動會被記錄
08:29
and stored in a searchable database.
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並存檔在一個可搜尋的資料庫。
08:34
Let's stop and think about this for a minute,
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讓我們停下來思考個一分鐘,
08:36
because this is a very important point.
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因為這是一個很重要的點:
08:37
This new wave of innovation is fundamentally
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這波革新浪潮,
08:39
changing the way we work.
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正從根本處改變我們工作的方式。
08:42
And I know that many of you will be concerned about the impact that innovation might have on jobs.
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而我知道你們之中有很多人 擔憂這波革新對工作帶來的影響。
08:47
Unemployment is already high,
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失業率已經很高了,
08:49
and there is always a fear that innovation will destroy jobs.
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而大家總是擔心 這波革新會摧毀工作,
08:52
And innovation is disruptive.
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而且它破壞性很強。
08:54
But let me stress two things here.
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但讓我在此強調兩件事:
08:56
First, we've already lived through
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首先,我們已經經歷了
08:58
mechanization of agriculture, automation of industry,
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農業機械化以及工業自動化,
09:01
and employment has gone up,
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而工作率是上升的,
09:03
because innovation is fundamentally about growth.
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因為革新基本上就是著眼於成長。
09:05
It makes products more affordable.
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它讓產品價格變的可負擔,
09:07
It creates new demand, new jobs.
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同時產生了新需求、新工作。
09:10
Second, there is a concern that in the future,
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第二,大家擔憂未來
09:13
there will only be room for engineers,
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只會有工程師、資料科學家
09:15
data scientists, and other highly-specialized workers.
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以及其他高專業工作者的生存空間。
09:18
And believe me, as an economist, I am also scared.
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相信我,身為一個 經濟學者,我自己也很害怕。
09:21
But think about it:
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但想想看:
09:23
Just as a child can easily figure out
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即便是個孩子,
09:26
how to operate an iPad,
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也能輕易上手 iPod ,
09:27
so a new generation of mobile and intuitive
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所以對於各種 技術層面的工作者而言,
09:30
industrial applications will make life easier
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一個隨身直觀應用科技的新時代
09:32
for workers of all skill levels.
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將會使生活更加便利。
09:35
The worker of the future will be more like Iron Man
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未來的工作者會更像「鋼鐵人」,
09:38
than the Charlie Chaplin of "Modern Times."
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而不是《摩登時代》裡的查理·卓別林。
09:41
And to be sure, new high-skilled jobs will be created:
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更確切一點,新的高技術職業將會出現:
09:44
mechanical digital engineers who understand
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同時了解機器和資料的
09:46
both the machines and the data;
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數位機械工程師、
09:48
managers who understand their industry
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對自己產業有充分了解的經理人、
09:50
and the analytics and can reorganize the business
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以及懂得充分利用科技
09:53
to take full advantage of the technology.
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能夠重整企業的分析師。
09:56
But now let's take a step back.
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但現在讓我們退後一步,
09:59
Let's look at the big picture.
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遙望整個大前景。
10:01
There are people who argue that today's innovation
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有些人認為現在的革新
10:03
is all about social media and silly games,
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完全著重於大眾媒體和愚蠢的遊戲,
10:05
with nowhere near the transformational power
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和工業革命所具備的改變力量
10:07
of the Industrial Revolution.
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根本沾不上邊,
10:09
They say that all the growth-enhancing innovations
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他們說,所有能提升產能的革新
10:12
are behind us.
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前人都已經做完了。
10:14
And every time I hear this, I can't help thinking that
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每當我聽見這種話,就忍不住要想:
10:17
even back in the Stone Age,
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即便在石器時代,
10:19
there must have been a group of cavemen
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也必定曾有一群山頂洞人,
10:21
sitting around a fire one day
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圍坐在火堆邊,
10:23
looking very grumpy,
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一臉忿忿不平的樣子,
10:25
and looking disapprovingly at another group of cavemen
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用極不認同的眼光
10:27
rolling a stone wheel up and down a hill,
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瞧著其他在山坡 來回滾動石輪的山頂洞人,
10:29
and saying to each other,
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並對彼此說:
10:31
"Yeah, this wheel thing,
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「誠然,這種叫輪子的東西,
10:34
cool toy, sure, but compared to fire,
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確是新奇的玩具,但比起火而言
10:36
it will have no impact.
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實在毫無影響力。
10:38
The big discoveries are all behind us."
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所有的大發現都是前人所為。」
10:41
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
10:43
This technological revolution
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這場科技革命
10:44
is as inspiring and transformational
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是與我們已知的任何事物
10:47
as anything we have ever seen.
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同樣鼓舞人心、同樣有改變力量。
10:49
Human creativity and innovation have always propelled us forward.
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人類的創意和革新 始終驅動著我們前進,
10:52
They've created jobs.
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它們產生了工作,
10:54
They've raised living standards.
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它們提升了生活品質,
10:55
They've made our lives
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它們使我們的生命
10:57
healthier and more rewarding.
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更加健康、更值得活。
10:59
And the new wave of innovation
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而這波全新的革命,
11:00
which is beginning to sweep through industry
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不例外的
11:02
is no different.
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已開始橫掃產業界,
11:04
In the U.S. alone, the industrial Internet
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光是在美國,工業網路
11:06
could raise average income by 25 to 40 percent
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在未來 15 年內
11:10
over the next 15 years,
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就能將平均薪資提升 25% 至 40% ,
11:12
boosting growth to rates we haven't seen in a long time,
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讓成長率久違地高,
11:14
and adding between 10 and 15 trillion dollars to global GDP.
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並使全球 GDP 增加 10 到 15 兆美元。
11:18
That is the size of the entire U.S. economy today.
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那是今日全美經濟的規模。
11:23
But this is not a foregone conclusion.
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但這不是一個已成定局的結論,
11:25
We are just at the beginning of this transformation,
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我們處在這場轉變的起點,
11:27
and there will be barriers to break,
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將有壁壘要打破,
11:29
obstacles to overcome.
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有障礙要跨越,
11:31
We will need to invest in the new technologies.
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我們需要投資新科技,
11:33
We will need to adapt organizations and managerial practices.
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我們需要調整現有的 組織和管理作業,
11:37
We will need a robust cybersecurity approach
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我們需要一個健全的 網路安全措施,
11:40
that protects sensitive information and intellectual property
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保護著敏感資訊和智慧財產
11:44
and safeguards critical infrastructure from cyberattacks.
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並防衛好重要的基礎設施,免於駭客入侵,
11:47
And the education system will need to evolve
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而教育系統必須進化,
11:49
to ensure students are equipped with the right skills.
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確保學生具備正確的技能,
11:52
It's not going to be easy,
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這一切將困難重重,
11:54
but it is going to be worth it.
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但絕對值得。
11:57
The economic challenges facing us are hard,
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我們所面臨的經濟挑戰十分艱困,
12:00
but when I walk the factory floor,
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但每當我走在工廠裡
12:02
and I see how humans and brilliant machines
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看見人類和智慧型機器
12:05
are becoming interconnected,
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是如何在互動連結時,
12:07
and I see the difference this makes
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當我看到這情景
12:09
in a hospital, in an airport,
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在醫院、機場、發電廠 造成如何的改變時,
12:11
in a power generation plant, I'm not just optimistic,
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我不僅是十分樂觀,
12:14
I'm enthusiastic.
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我還充滿熱情,
12:15
This new technological revolution is upon us.
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這波新的科技革命正迎面而來。
12:19
So think about the future — it will be here soon enough.
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所以想想未來——它很快就會到來。
12:22
Thank you.
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謝謝。
12:25
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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