Michael Green: What the Social Progress Index can reveal about your country

Prevodilac: Ivana Korom Lektor: Mile Živković

On January 4, 1934,

Četvrtog januara 1934.

a young man delivered a report

jedan mladić je dostavio izveštaj

to the United States Congress

Kongresu SAD

that 80 years on,

koji i posle 80 godina

still shapes the lives of everyone in this room today,

oblikuje živote svih danas ovde prisutnih,

still shapes the lives of everyone on this planet.

kao i živote svih na ovoj planeti.

That young man wasn't a politician,

Taj mladić nije bio političar,

he wasn't a businessman,

niti biznismen,

a civil rights activist

ni aktivista za građanska prava,

or a faith leader.

ni verski vođa.

He was that most unlikely of heroes,

Bio je najneupadljiviji od svih junaka,

an economist.

bio je ekonomista.

His name was Simon Kuznets

Zvao se Sajmon Kuznets,

and the report that he delivered was called

a izveštaj koji je dao nazvan je

"National Income, 1929-1932."

"Nacionalni dohodak, 1929-1932".

Now, you might think

Pomislićete da je ovo

this is a rather dry and dull report.

veoma suvoparan i dosadan izveštaj.

And you're absolutely right.

I potpuno ste u pravu.

It's dry as a bone.

I suviše je suvoparno.

But this report is the foundation

Ali danas je ovaj izveštaj

of how, today, we judge the success of countries:

osnov za procenu uspeha zemalja:

what we know best as Gross Domestic Product,

ono što je poznato kao bruto domaći proizvod.

GDP.

BDP.

GDP has defined and shaped our lives

BDP definiše i oblikuje naše živote

for the last 80 years.

poslednjih 80 godina.

And today I want to talk about

Danas želim da govorim

a different way to measure the success of countries,

o jednom drugačijem načinu merenja uspeha zemalja,

a different way to define and shape our lives

drugačijem načinu merenja i oblikovanja naših života

for the next 80 years.

u narednih 80 godina.

But first, we have to understand

Ali prvo moramo razumeti

how GDP came to dominate our lives.

kako je BDP počeo da dominira našim životima.

Kuznets' report was delivered

Kuznets je dostavio izveštaj

at a moment of crisis.

u trenutku krize.

The U.S. economy was plummeting

Američka ekonomija je strmoglavo padala

into the Great Depression

u veliku ekonomsku krizu,

and policy makers were struggling to respond.

a kreatori politike su se mučili da nađu rešenje.

Struggling because they didn't know what was going on.

Mučili su se jer nisu znali šta se dešava.

They didn't have data and statistics.

Nisu imali podatke i statistiku.

So what Kuznet's report gave them

Kuznetsov izveštaj im je pružio

was reliable data on what the U.S. economy

pouzdane podatke o onome što je američka ekonomija

was producing,

proizvodila,

updated year by year.

ažuriran iz godine u godinu.

And armed with this information,

Naoružani ovim informacijama,

policy makers were, eventually,

kreatori politike su konačno

able to find a way out of the slump.

uspeli da nađu izlaz iz recesije.

And because Kuznets' invention

Pošto se Kuznetsovo otkriće

was found to be so useful,

pokazalo korisnim,

it spread around the world.

proširilo se celim svetom.

And now today, every country

Danas svaka zemlja

produces GDP statistics.

pruža statistiku o BDP-u.

But, in that first report,

Ali u tom prvom izveštaju,

Kuznets himself delivered a warning.

sam Kuznets upozorava.

It's in the introductory chapter.

U uvodnom poglavlju.

On page seven he says,

Na sedmoj strani kaže:

"The welfare of a nation can, therefore,

"Stoga se o blagostanju naroda

scarcely be inferred

teško može šta zaključiti

from a measurement of national income

na osnovu merenja nacionalnog dohotka

as defined above."

kako je to gore definisano."

It's not the greatest sound bite in the world,

Ovo nije najprivlačniji odlomak

and it's dressed up in the cautious language of the economist.

i obavijen je opreznim rečima ekonomista.

But his message was clear:

Ali poruka je jasna:

GDP is a tool

BDP je sredstvo

to help us measure economic performance.

koje nam pomaže u merenju ekonomskog učinka.

It's not a measure of our well-being.

To nije mera za blagostanje.

And it shouldn't be a guide to all decision making.

I ne treba se njim voditi pri donošenju svih odluka.

But we have ignored Kuznets' warning.

Ali ignorisali smo Kuznetsovo upozorenje.

We live in a world where

Živimo u svetu u kome je

GDP is the benchmark of success

BDP standard uspeha

in a global economy.

u globalnoj ekonomiji.

Our politicians boast when GDP goes up.

Naši političari se hvale kada BDP poraste.

Markets move

Tržišta se kreću

and trillions of dollars of capital

i bilioni dolara kapitala

move around the world

kruže svetom

based on which countries are going up

na osnovu porasta

and which countries are going down,

i pada određenih zemalja,

all measured in GDP.

u merenju BDP-a.

Our societies have become

Naša društva su postala

engines to create more GDP.

mašine za stvaranje većeg BDP-a.

But we know that GDP is flawed.

Ali znamo da BDP ima mana.

It ignores the environment.

Ignoriše okruženje.

It counts bombs and prisons as progress.

Bombe i zatvore računa kao napredak.

It can't count happiness or community.

Ne može da uračuna sreću ili zajednicu.

And it has nothing to say about fairness or justice.

I ne govori ništa o pravdi.

Is it any surprise that our world,

Da li iznenađuje da se naš svet,

marching to the drumbeat of GDP,

koračajući u ritmu BDP-a,

is teetering on the brink of environmental disaster

nalazi na ivici ekološke katastrofe

and filled with anger and conflict?

i ispunjen je besom i konfliktom?

We need a better way to measure our societies,

Potreban nam je bolji način da merimo naša društva,

a measure based on the real things that matter to real people.

mera koja je zasnovana na realnim stvarima koje su važne realnim ljudima.

Do I have enough to eat?

Da li imam dovoljno da jedem?

Can I read and write?

Da li umem da čitam i pišem?

Am I safe?

Da li sam bezbedan?

Do I have rights?

Da li imam prava?

Do I live in a society where I'm not discriminated against?

Da li živim u društvu u kom nisam diskriminisan?

Is my future and the future of my children prevented from environmental destruction?

Da li je moja i budućnost moje dece zaštićena od ekološkog uništavanja?

These are questions that GDP

Ovo su pitanja

does not and cannot answer.

na koja BDP ne odgovara i ne može da odgovori.

There have, of course,

Naravno,

been efforts in the past

u prošlosti je bilo pokušaja

to move beyond GDP.

da se ode korak dalje od BDP-a.

But I believe that we're living

Ali mislim da živimo u trenuktu

in a moment when we

kad smo spremni za mernu revoluciju.

are ready for a measurement revolution.

We're ready because we've seen,

Spremni smo,

jer smo u ekonomskoj krizi 2008.

in the financial crisis of 2008,

how our fetish for economic growth

videli kako nas je opsednutost ekonomskim rastom

led us so far astray.

odvela na pogrešan put.

We've seen, in the Arab Spring,

U Arapskom proleću smo videli

how countries like Tunisia

kako su zemlje kao što je Tunis,

were supposedly economic superstars,

navodno bile ekonomske zvezde,

but they were societies

ali to su bila društva

that were seething with discontentment.

koja su ključala od nezadovoljstva.

We're ready, because today we have the technology

Spremni smo, jer danas imamo tehnologiju

to gather and analyze data

za skupljanje i analiziranje podataka,

in ways that would have been unimaginable to Kuznets.

na načine koji bi Kuznetsu bili nezamislivi.

Today, I'd like to introduce you to the Social Progress Index.

Danas želim da vam predstavim Indeks društvenog napretka.

It's a measure of the well-being of society,

To je mera dobrostanja društva,

completely separate from GDP.

potpuno odvojena od BDP-a.

It's a whole new way of looking at the world.

To je potpuno novi način gledanja na svet.

The Social Progress Index

Indeks društvenog napretka

begins by defining what it

počinje definišući

means to be a good society

šta znači biti dobro društvo,

based around three dimensions.

na osnovu tri dimenzije.

The first is, does everyone have the basic needs for survival:

Prva: da li svi imaju osnovne životne potrebe:

food, water, shelter, safety?

hranu, vodu, skrovište, sigurnost?

Secondly, does everyone have

Drugo: da li svi imaju pristup

access to the building blocks to improve their lives:

elementima za unapređenje života:

education, information, health and sustainable environment?

obrazovanju, informacijama, zdravlju i održivom okruženju?

And then third, does every individual have access

I treće: da li svaka osoba ima pristup

to a chance to pursue their goals

mogućnostima da ostvaruje svoje ciljeve,

and dreams and ambitions

snove i ambicije,

free from obstacles?

bez prepreka?

Do they have rights,

Da li ima prava,

freedom of choice,

slobodu izbora,

freedom from discrimination

slobodu od diskriminacije,

and access to the the world's most advanced knowledge?

i pristup najnaprednijem svetskom znanju?

Together, these 12 components

Zajedno, ovih 12 komponenti

form the Social Progress framework.

oblikuju okvir Društvenog napretka.

And for each of these 12 components,

I za svaku od ovih 12 komponenti

we have indicators to measure how countries are performing.

imamo indikatore da izmerimo kako se države kotiraju.

Not indicators of effort or intention,

Ne indikatore truda ili namere,

but real achievement.

nego stvarnog postignuća.

We don't measure how much a country spends on healthcare,

Ne merimo koliko neka zemlja troši na zdravstvo,

we measure the length and quality of people's lives.

merimo trajanje i kvalitet života ljudi.

We don't measure whether governments pass laws against discrimination,

Ne merimo da li vlade donose zakone protiv diskriminacije,

we measure whether people experience discrimination.

merimo da li ljudi doživljavaju diskriminaciju.

But what you want to know

Ali vi želite da znate

is who's top, don't you? (Laughter)

ko je na vrhu, zar ne? (Smeh)

I knew that, I knew that, I knew that.

Znam, znam.

Okay, I'm going to show you.

Okej, pokazaću vam.

I'm going to show you on this chart.

Pokazaću vam na ovom grafiku.

So here we are,

Dakle,

what I've done here is put on the vertical axis social progress.

ovde sam na vertikalnu osu postavio društveni napredak.

Higher is better.

Više je bolje.

And then, just for comparison,

I kao poređenje,

just for fun,

samo radi zabave,

on the horizontal axis is GDP per capita.

na horizontalnoj osi je BDP po glavi stanovnika.

Further to the right is more.

Dalje desno je više.

So the country in the world

Dakle, ona zemlja na svetu

with the highest social progress,

koja ostvaruje najviši društveni napredak,

the number one country on social progress

prva zemlja po društvenom napretku,

is New Zealand.

je Novi Zeland.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Well done! Never been; must go.

Bravo! Nikad nisam bio, moram da odem.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

The country with the least social progress,

Zemlja sa najnižim društvenim napretkom,

I'm sorry to say, is Chad.

žao mi je, to je Čad.

I've never been; maybe next year.

Nikad nisam bio, možda dogodine.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Or maybe the year after.

Ili godinu dana kasnije.

Now, I know what you're thinking.

Znam šta razmišljate.

You're thinking, "Aha,

Mislite:

but New Zealand has a higher GDP

"Aha, ali Novi Zeland ima viši BDP

than Chad!"

od Čada!"

It's a good point, well made.

Odličan komentar, sasvim na mestu.

But let me show you

Dozvolite da vam pokažem

two other countries.

još dve zemlje.

Here's the United States —

Evo ih Sjedinjene Države -

considerably richer than New Zealand,

mnogo bogatije od Novog Zelanda,

but with a lower level of social progress.

na nižem nivou društvenog napretka.

And then here's Senegal —

I potom Senegal -

it's got a higher level of social progress than Chad,

koji je na višem nivou društvenog napretka od Čada,

but the same level of GDP.

ali ima isti nivo BDP-a.

So what's going on? Well, look.

Šta se dešava? Pogledajte.

Let me bring in the rest of the countries of the world,

Ubaciću i ostale svetske zemlje,

the 132 we've been able to measure,

132 koje smo uspeli da izmerimo,

each one represented by a dot.

svaka je predstavljena tačkom.

There we go. Lots of dots.

Evo ga. Mnogo tačaka.

Now, obviously I can't do all of them,

Naravno, ne mogu da predstavim sve,

so a few highlights for you:

pa evo nekoliko primera:

The highest ranked G7 country is Canada.

zemlja iz G7 koja je najbolje kotirana je Kanada.

My country, the United Kingdom,

Moja zemlja, Ujedinjeno Kraljevstvo,

is sort of middling, sort of dull,

nekako je osrednja, dosadna,

but who cares —

ali koga briga -

at least we beat the French.

bar smo bolji od Francuza.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And then looking at the emerging economies,

I gledajući zemlje u razvoju,

top of the BRICS, pleased to say, is Brazil.

zadovoljstvo mi je da kažem, na vrhu BRIK grupe, je Brazil.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Come on, cheer!

Hajde, navijajte!

Go, Brazil!

Bravo za Brazil!

Beating South Africa,

Ispred Južne Afrike,

then Russia,

Rusije,

then China

potom Kine

and then India.

i onda Indije.

Tucked away on the right-hand side,

Ušuškanu u desnom uglu,

you will see a dot of a country with a lot of GDP

videćete jednu tačku zemlje sa visokim BDP-om,

but not a huge amount of social progress —

ali sa malo društvenog napretka,

that's Kuwait.

a to je Kuvajt.

Just above Brazil

Tik iznad Brazila

is a social progress superpower —

je supersila društvenog napretka,

that's Costa Rica.

Kosta Rika.

It's got a level of social progress the same as some Western European countries,

Na istom nivou društvenog napretka kao neke zapadnoevropske zemlje,

with a much lower GDP.

ali sa mnogo nižim BDP-om.

Now, my slide is getting a little cluttered

Nastala je gužva na slajdu,

and I'd like to step back a bit.

pa ću se vratiti malo unazad.

So let me take away these countries,

Izbaciću ove zemlje,

and then pop in the regression line.

i ubaciću regresionu liniju.

So this shows the average relationship

Ovo pokazuje prosečnu vezu

between GDP and social progress.

između BDP-a i društvenog napretka.

The first thing to notice,

Prvo što ćete primetiti

is that there's lots of noise

je da postoji mnogo gužve

around the trend line.

oko linije trenda.

And what this shows,

To pokazuje,

what this empirically demonstrates,

i empirijski pokazuje,

is that GDP is not destiny.

da BDP nije sudbina.

At every level of GDP per capita,

Na svakom nivou BDP-a po glavi stanovnika

there are opportunities for more social progress,

postoje prilike za dodatni društveni napredak,

risks of less.

i rizici za manje.

The second thing to notice

Sledeće što se primećuje,

is that for poor countries,

je da je linija vrlo strma

the curve is really steep.

kod siromašnih zemalja.

So what this tells us is that

To nam govori

if poor countries can get

da ako siromašne zemlje

a little bit of extra GDP,

dobiju malo dodanog BDP-a,

and if they reinvest that

i ako ga ulože

in doctors, nurses, water supplies,

u lekare, sestre, zalihe vode,

sanitation, etc.,

sanitarije i tako dalje,

there's a lot of social progress bang

društveni napredak se značajno povećava

for your GDP buck.

za svaki uloženi dinar.

And that's good news, and that's what we've seen over the last 20, 30 years,

I to su dobre vesti, to viđamo poslednjih 20, 30 godina,

with a lot of people lifted out of poverty

kod mnogo ljudi koji su izašli iz siromaštva

by economic growth and good policies

uz ekonomski rast i dobru politiku

in poorer countries.

u siromašnijim zemljama.

But go on a bit further up the curve,

Ali pođite dalje uz liniju,

and then we see it flattening out.

i videćete da postaje ravna.

Each extra dollar of GDP

Svaki dodatni dinar BDP-a

is buying less and less social progress.

kupuje manje i manje društvenog napretka.

And with more and more of the world's population

I kako sve više svetske populacije

living on this part of the curve,

živi na ovom delu krive,

it means GDP is becoming

to znači da BDP postaje

less and less useful

sve manje koristan

as a guide to our development.

kao vodič našeg razvoja.

I'll show you an example of Brazil.

Pokazaću vam na primeru Brazila.

Here's Brazil:

Evo ga Brazil:

social progress of about 70 out of 100,

društveni napredak je oko 70 od 100,

GDP per capita about 14,000 dollars a year.

BDP po glavi stanovnika je oko 14,000 dolara godišnje.

And look, Brazil's above the line.

I vidite, Brazil je iznad linije.

Brazil is doing a reasonably good job

Brazil na prilično dobar način

of turning GDP into social progress.

pretvara BDP u društveni napredak.

But where does Brazil go next?

Ali kuda Brazil ide?

Let's say that Brazil

Recimo da Brazil usvoji

adopts a bold economic plan

hrabar ekonomski plan

to double GDP in the next decade.

za udvostručavanje BDP-a u sledećoj deceniji.

But that is only half a plan.

Ali to je samo polovina plana.

It's less than half a plan,

Čak i manje od polovine,

because where does Brazil want to go on social progress?

jer kuda Brazil želi da ide na društvenom napretku?

Brazil, it's possible

Brazil, moguće je da povećate

to increase your growth,

svoj rast,

increase your GDP,

povećate svoj BDP,

while stagnating or going backwards

ali da stagnirate ili nazadujete

on social progress.

u društvenom napretku.

We don't want Brazil

Ne želimo da Brazil

to become like Russia.

postane kao Rusija.

What you really want is for Brazil

Ono što želite je da Brazil postane

to get ever more efficient at creating social progress from its GDP,

efikasniji u pretvaranju BDP-a u društveni napredak

so it becomes more like New Zealand.

da bi postao sličniji Novom Zelandu.

And what that means is that

A to znači da društveni napredak

Brazil needs to prioritize social progress

mora Brazilu da bude prioritet

in its development plan

u razvojnom planu,

and see that it's not just growth alone,

i da ne bude samo rast,

it's growth with social progress.

nego rast sa društvenim napretkom.

And that's what the Social Progress Index does:

I to je ono što Indeks društvenog napretka radi:

It reframes the debate about development,

preformuliše debatu o razvoju,

not just about GDP alone,

ne samo o BDP-u,

but inclusive, sustainable growth

nego o inkluzivnom, održivom rastu,

that brings real improvements in people's lives.

koji donosi prava unapređenja u živote ljudi.

And it's not just about countries.

Ne radi se samo o zemljama.

Earlier this year,

Ranije ove godine,

with our friends from the Imazon nonprofit here in Brazil,

sa prijateljima iz neprofitne organizacije Imazon, ovde u Brazilu,

we launched the first subnational Social Progress Index.

lansirali smo prvi podnacionalni Indeks društvenog napretka.

We did it for the Amazon region.

Uradili smo to za region Amazona.

It's an area the size of Europe, 24 million people,

To je oblast veličine Evrope, sa 24 miliona ljudi,

one of the most deprived parts of the country.

jedan od najsiromašnijih delova zemlje.

And here are the results,

I evo rezultata,

and this is broken down

ovo je rasparčano

into nearly 800 different municipalities.

na skoro 800 različitih opština.

And with this detailed information

Sa ovim detaljnim informacijama

about the real quality of life

o stvarnom kvalitetu života

in this part of the country,

u ovom delu zemlje,

Imazon and other partners

Imazon i drugi partneri

from government, business and civil society

iz vlade, društvenog i poslovnog sektora

can work together to construct

mogu zajedno da naprave

a development plan

razvojni plan

that will help really improve people's lives,

koji će pomoći da se unaprede životi ljudi,

while protecting that precious global asset

dok se istovremeno štiti to vredno globalno blago,

that is the Amazon Rainforest.

amazonska prašuma.

And this is just the beginning,

A ovo je samo početak.

You can create a Social Progress Index

Indeks društvenog napretka možete napraviti

for any state, region, city or municipality.

za bilo koju zemlju, region, grad ili opštinu.

We all know and love TEDx;

Svi znamo i volimo TEDx;

this is Social Pogress-x.

ovo je Društveni napredak-x.

This is a tool for anyone to come and use.

Ovaj alat svako može da koristi.

Contrary to the way we sometimes talk about it,

Nasuprot uobičajenom mišljenju,

GDP was not handed down from God on tablets of stone. (Laughter)

BDP nije urezan u kamen i poslat od boga. (Smeh)

It's a measurement tool invented in the 20th century

To je merni instrument izmišljen u 20. veku

to address the challenges of the 20th century.

kako bi se suočio sa izazovima 20. veka.

In the 21st century,

U 21. veku

we face new challenges:

suočeni smo sa novim izazovima:

aging, obesity, climate change, and so on.

starenjem, gojaznošću, klimatskim promenama, itd.

To face those challenges,

Da bismo se sa njima suočili,

we need new tools of measurement,

potrebni su nam novi merni instrumenti,

new ways of valuing progress.

novi načini vrednovanja napretka.

Imagine if we could measure

Zamislite kad bismo mogli da merimo

what nonprofits, charities,

stvaran doprinos koji u našem društvu

volunteers, civil society organizations

ostvaruju neprofitne i dobrotvorne organizacije,

really contribute to our society.

volonteri, organizacije civilnog društva.

Imagine if businesses competed

Zamislite da se firme ne takmiče

not just on the basis of their economic contribution,

samo na osnovu ekonomskog doprinosa,

but on their contribution to social progress.

nego na osnovu doprinosa društvenom napretku.

Imagine if we could hold politicians to account

Zamislite da političari odgovaraju

for really improving people's lives.

za stvarno unapređenje života ljudi.

Imagine if we could work together —

Zamislite da zajedno radimo -

government, business, civil society, me, you —

vlade, firme, građansko društvo, ja, vi -

and make this century the century of social progress.

i da ovaj vek napravimo vekom društvenog napretka.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)