Michael Green: What the Social Progress Index can reveal about your country

譯者: Jiayi Lu 審譯者: Melody Tang

On January 4, 1934,

1934年1月4日，

a young man delivered a report

一位年輕人撰寫了一份報告，

to the United States Congress

呈給美國國會。

that 80 years on,

過了80年，

still shapes the lives of everyone in this room today,

它仍影響著在座各位今天的生活。

still shapes the lives of everyone on this planet.

它仍影響著地球上所有人的生活。

That young man wasn't a politician,

那位年輕人並不是從政者，

he wasn't a businessman,

他不是商人，

a civil rights activist

亦非民權活動者，

or a faith leader.

甚或信仰領袖，

He was that most unlikely of heroes,

和英雄天差地遠，

an economist.

他是經濟學家。

[西蒙．顧志耐]

他名叫西蒙．顧志耐

His name was Simon Kuznets

and the report that he delivered was called

他提交的報告則稱為

"National Income, 1929-1932."

「國家收入：1929-1932年」

Now, you might think

你們可能會想，

this is a rather dry and dull report.

這報告應該很艱澀無趣吧。

And you're absolutely right.

你完全正確。

It's dry as a bone.

它無聊透頂。

But this report is the foundation

但這報告是項基石，時至今日，

of how, today, we judge the success of countries:

我們都據此判斷國家的成功與否：

what we know best as Gross Domestic Product,

亦即我們最常聽到的 「國内生產總值」，

GDP.

GDP。

GDP has defined and shaped our lives

GDP定義且形塑了我們的生活，

for the last 80 years.

至今已80年。

And today I want to talk about

今天我想要談的是

a different way to measure the success of countries,

在未來80年

以另一種不同的方式 來衡量國家的成功，

a different way to define and shape our lives

以另一種不同的方式， 來定義和形塑我們的生活。

for the next 80 years.

But first, we have to understand

但首先，我們來了解一下，

how GDP came to dominate our lives.

GDP是如何主宰我們的生活。

Kuznets' report was delivered

顧志耐的報告，

at a moment of crisis.

是在經濟危機的時候寫的。

The U.S. economy was plummeting

美國經濟在當時一落千丈， 造成了「經濟大蕭條」。

into the Great Depression

and policy makers were struggling to respond.

執政者想破頭，不知所措，

Struggling because they didn't know what was going on.

不知所措是因為 他們根本不知道怎麼回事，

They didn't have data and statistics.

他們沒有數據或統計資料。

So what Kuznet's report gave them

顧志耐的報告提供了

was reliable data on what the U.S. economy

有關美國經濟生產的可靠數據，

was producing,

updated year by year.

年復一年地更新。

And armed with this information,

有了這些資訊，

policy makers were, eventually,

執政者終於

able to find a way out of the slump.

能夠找出谷底翻身的方法，

And because Kuznets' invention

且因為大家發現顧志耐的發明 非常有用，

was found to be so useful,

it spread around the world.

它傳到世界各地。

And now today, every country

時至今日，每個國家

produces GDP statistics.

都會做出國內生產總額的統計資料。

But, in that first report,

然而，在那第一份報告裏，

Kuznets himself delivered a warning.

顧志耐本人

在前言中提出一個警告

It's in the introductory chapter.

On page seven he says,

在第7頁裡他提到：

"The welfare of a nation can, therefore,

「因此一個國家的利益福祉，

scarcely be inferred

不應從

from a measurement of national income

前述定義之衡量國家收入的 指數來推斷。」

as defined above."

It's not the greatest sound bite in the world,

這並非偉大的世界名言，

and it's dressed up in the cautious language of the economist.

而是經濟學者的謹慎囑咐，

But his message was clear:

他很清楚地傳達：

GDP is a tool

GDP實為一項工具，

to help us measure economic performance.

它協助我們量化經濟的表現，

It's not a measure of our well-being.

而非人民福祉的衡量標準，

And it shouldn't be a guide to all decision making.

不應將之做為導引所有決策的大旗。

But we have ignored Kuznets' warning.

但我們忽視了顧志耐的警告。

We live in a world where

我們身處的世界，

GDP is the benchmark of success

GDP是全球經濟 成功與否的基準，

in a global economy.

政客醉心於GDP成長。

Our politicians boast when GDP goes up.

Markets move

市場數以兆計的資金在全球活動，

and trillions of dollars of capital

move around the world

based on which countries are going up

基於於哪些國家經濟成長或衰退，

and which countries are going down,

all measured in GDP.

都是依據GDP來衡量。

Our societies have become

我們的社會已變成

engines to create more GDP.

只顧提高GDP數字的盲目機器。

But we know that GDP is flawed.

但我們知道GDP並非完美，

It ignores the environment.

它忽視環保議題，

It counts bombs and prisons as progress.

它把炸彈的生產和 監獄的修建視為進步，

It can't count happiness or community.

但卻無法計算人民幸福或社區，

And it has nothing to say about fairness or justice.

亦無法反映公平與正義。

Is it any surprise that our world,

你會驚訝嗎？ 訝異於我們的世界，

marching to the drumbeat of GDP,

跟隨GDP的鼓聲大步向前，

is teetering on the brink of environmental disaster

正在環境災難的邊緣遙遙欲墜，

and filled with anger and conflict?

四處充滿憤怒與衝突？

We need a better way to measure our societies,

我們需要更好的方式 來衡量我們的社會，

a measure based on the real things that matter to real people.

衡量人民真正在乎的事物。

Do I have enough to eat?

我是否能糊口？

Can I read and write?

能否讀和寫？

Am I safe?

是否安居樂業？

Do I have rights?

是否擁有人權？

Do I live in a society where I'm not discriminated against?

社會是否平等、沒有歧視？

Is my future and the future of my children prevented from environmental destruction?

我的未來後代、子孫的未來 是否不會受環境破壞所影響？

These are questions that GDP

這些問題都是GDP

does not and cannot answer.

不會也不能回答的。

There have, of course,

在過去，當然，

been efforts in the past

已有一些努力，

to move beyond GDP.

希望跨越GDP。

But I believe that we're living

我相信我們正處於 最適合革新測量標準的時刻，

in a moment when we

are ready for a measurement revolution.

We're ready because we've seen,

我們覺得水到渠成了，

因為我們看見2008年的金融危機

in the financial crisis of 2008,

how our fetish for economic growth

肇因於對經濟成長的盲目崇拜 而迷失方向，

led us so far astray.

We've seen, in the Arab Spring,

我們看到，在阿拉伯之春，

how countries like Tunisia

本應為經濟超級新星的 突尼西亞等國家，

were supposedly economic superstars,

but they were societies

國內社會卻瀰漫不滿的聲音。

that were seething with discontentment.

We're ready, because today we have the technology

一切水到渠成了，因為現今科技

to gather and analyze data

足以收集並分析更多數據，

in ways that would have been unimaginable to Kuznets.

大大超越了過去顧志耐的想像，

Today, I'd like to introduce you to the Social Progress Index.

今天，我要向各位介紹

「社會進步指數」 （Social Progress Index)，

It's a measure of the well-being of society,

它是評估社會人民的福祉的標準，

completely separate from GDP.

和GDP涇渭分明。

It's a whole new way of looking at the world.

[社會進步指數] 這是以一個全新的視角觀看世界。

The Social Progress Index

[社會進步指數] 社會進步指數

begins by defining what it

始於定義何謂理想的社會，

means to be a good society

based around three dimensions.

它基於三個面向：

The first is, does everyone have the basic needs for survival:

第一： 是否滿足人人的基本生存需求？

food, water, shelter, safety?

如食物、水、住所、安全？

Secondly, does everyone have

第二： 是否人人皆擁有

access to the building blocks to improve their lives:

提昇生活品質的基礎要素，

education, information, health and sustainable environment?

如教育、資訊、健康及永續環境？

And then third, does every individual have access

第三： 是否人人皆有

to a chance to pursue their goals

追求自我實現 目標、理想、抱負的可能性？

and dreams and ambitions

free from obstacles?

不受任何阻礙？

Do they have rights,

他們是否擁有人權，

freedom of choice,

自由選擇的權利、

freedom from discrimination

不受歧視的權利、

and access to the the world's most advanced knowledge?

以及接觸世界最先進知識的權利？

Together, these 12 components

這12個項目共同組成

form the Social Progress framework.

「社會進步」的架構。

And for each of these 12 components,

12項中的每一項，

we have indicators to measure how countries are performing.

我們設定了量測基準， 來評估每個國家的表現，

Not indicators of effort or intention,

不是考量努力程度、或是意向，

but real achievement.

而是考量實際的成果。

We don't measure how much a country spends on healthcare,

我們不計算國家健保支出，

we measure the length and quality of people's lives.

我們量測國民壽命長短及生活品質。

We don't measure whether governments pass laws against discrimination,

我們不考量政府是否通過反歧視法案，

we measure whether people experience discrimination.

我們量測民眾受歧視的親身經驗。

But what you want to know

但你們最想知道的， 應該是各國排名，對吧？

is who's top, don't you? (Laughter)

I knew that, I knew that, I knew that.

（笑聲）

我明白，我明白，我明白。

Okay, I'm going to show you.

好，我給大家看看，

I'm going to show you on this chart.

我給你們看看這張圖表。

So here we are,

來了，

what I've done here is put on the vertical axis social progress.

這邊我把社會進步放在縱軸，

Higher is better.

越高表示越好，

And then, just for comparison,

然後，我們來比較一下，

just for fun,

好玩嘛，

on the horizontal axis is GDP per capita.

橫軸代表人均GDP。

Further to the right is more.

越右邊表示越高。

So the country in the world

所以世界上

with the highest social progress,

擁有最高的社會進步，

the number one country on social progress

社會進步第一高的國家

is New Zealand.

是 ‧ ‧ ‧ ‧ ‧

(Applause)

紐西蘭。

（鼓掌）

Well done! Never been; must go.

做得好！我沒去過那，必須去一下。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

The country with the least social progress,

社會進步最低的國家，

I'm sorry to say, is Chad.

很抱歉我必須說，是查德。

I've never been; maybe next year.

我沒去過那，或許明年吧。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Or maybe the year after.

或者後年吧。

Now, I know what you're thinking.

好，我知道你們在想什麼，

You're thinking, "Aha,

你們在想：「啊哈，

but New Zealand has a higher GDP

但是紐西蘭的GDP 比查德高喔！

than Chad!"

但是紐西蘭的GDP 比查德高喔！」

It's a good point, well made.

你說得對，說得好。

But let me show you

但我給大家瞧瞧

two other countries.

另外兩個國家。

Here's the United States —

請看美國 －

considerably richer than New Zealand,

遠比紐西蘭有錢，

but with a lower level of social progress.

但社會進步程度相對較低。

And then here's Senegal —

然後請看塞內加爾 －

it's got a higher level of social progress than Chad,

社會進步程度優於查德，

but the same level of GDP.

但GDP水準相同。

So what's going on? Well, look.

這怎麼回事？好，看著，

Let me bring in the rest of the countries of the world,

我來把其他世界各國都放上來，

the 132 we've been able to measure,

共132國，只要我們能夠測量的

each one represented by a dot.

一個點代表一個國家。

There we go. Lots of dots.

來了，一堆點。

Now, obviously I can't do all of them,

顯然我無法逐一說明， 我給大家提示幾個，

so a few highlights for you:

The highest ranked G7 country is Canada.

七大工業國(G7)裡面， 排名最高的是加拿大。

My country, the United Kingdom,

我的祖國，英國呢，

is sort of middling, sort of dull,

位居中間，中庸無聊，

but who cares —

管他的...

at least we beat the French.

好歹我們贏法國啦。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

（掌聲）

And then looking at the emerging economies,

然後看看發展中的經濟體，

top of the BRICS, pleased to say, is Brazil.

金磚四國第一名， 很高興宣佈：巴西。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

Come on, cheer!

來啦，歡呼一下！

Go, Brazil!

巴西加油！

Beating South Africa,

打敗南非、

then Russia,

俄國、

then China

中國、

and then India.

以及印度。

Tucked away on the right-hand side,

藏在右手邊的，

you will see a dot of a country with a lot of GDP

你們可以看到那個點 有很高的GDP，

but not a huge amount of social progress —

但社會進步指數不高的：

that's Kuwait.

科威特。

Just above Brazil

另一個高於巴西的

is a social progress superpower —

是社會進步的強力代表：

that's Costa Rica.

哥斯大黎加。

It's got a level of social progress the same as some Western European countries,

它的生活進步 和一些西方國家旗鼓相當，

with a much lower GDP.

GDP卻低很多。

Now, my slide is getting a little cluttered

好，現在投影片畫面有點滿，

and I'd like to step back a bit.

我要退後點看，

So let me take away these countries,

把國家名稱拿掉、

and then pop in the regression line.

秀出回歸線，

So this shows the average relationship

如此可以顯出平均GDP 和平均生活水準的相對關係。

between GDP and social progress.

如此可以顯出平均GDP 和平均社會進步的相對關係。

The first thing to notice,

首先注意看，

is that there's lots of noise

趨勢線附近有很多偏移點，

around the trend line.

趨勢線附近有很多偏移點，

And what this shows,

這表示，

what this empirically demonstrates,

這個基於經驗顯示的是，

is that GDP is not destiny.

GDP不是一切。

At every level of GDP per capita,

相同的人均GDP水準，

there are opportunities for more social progress,

人民的社會進步可能較高，

risks of less.

也可能更差。

The second thing to notice

第二件事：

is that for poor countries,

就是對貧窮國家來說

the curve is really steep.

上升斜率很大，

So what this tells us is that

意思是說，

if poor countries can get

貧窮國家只要

a little bit of extra GDP,

增加一點點GDP，

and if they reinvest that

將其投入在

in doctors, nurses, water supplies,

醫護資源、水資源、

sanitation, etc.,

衛生條件等等，

there's a lot of social progress bang

只要一點點GDP 就能有長足的社會進步。

for your GDP buck.

只要一點點GDP 就能有長足的社會進步。

And that's good news, and that's what we've seen over the last 20, 30 years,

這是個好消息啊， 也是我們這二、三十年看到的，

with a lot of people lifted out of poverty

以經濟成長和良善政策 讓落後國家的民眾脫離貧困。

by economic growth and good policies

以經濟成長和良善政策 讓落後國家的民眾脫離貧困。

in poorer countries.

以經濟成長和良善政策 讓落後國家的民眾脫離貧困。

But go on a bit further up the curve,

不過跟著曲線再往上走，

and then we see it flattening out.

趨勢變得比較平緩。

Each extra dollar of GDP

多出來的GDP，

is buying less and less social progress.

換得的社會進步程度就低很多，

And with more and more of the world's population

而世界上越來越多的人口

living on this part of the curve,

都是在這個區間生存，

it means GDP is becoming

也就意味著GDP變得

less and less useful

越來越沒用，

as a guide to our development.

無法卻引導未來的發展。

I'll show you an example of Brazil.

我給大家看看巴西的例子。

Here's Brazil:

這是巴西，

social progress of about 70 out of 100,

人民生活水準 滿分100裡面拿了70分，

GDP per capita about 14,000 dollars a year.

一年人均GDP約1萬4千美元。

And look, Brazil's above the line.

瞧，巴西優於回歸預測線。

Brazil is doing a reasonably good job

在移轉GDP到社會進步發展上， 巴西做得很好。

of turning GDP into social progress.

在移轉GDP到社會進步發展上， 巴西做得很好。

But where does Brazil go next?

但巴西接下來該往哪兒走？

Let's say that Brazil

或許巴西想要

adopts a bold economic plan

採取大膽的經濟方案，

to double GDP in the next decade.

希望十年內讓GDP翻一倍，

But that is only half a plan.

但那只計劃了一半，

It's less than half a plan,

甚至一半都不到啊。

because where does Brazil want to go on social progress?

因為，巴西人民的社會進步 該何去何從呢？

Brazil, it's possible

巴西，你可以

to increase your growth,

讓經濟成長，

increase your GDP,

提昇GDP，

while stagnating or going backwards

然而生活水準可能會退步或低迷，

on social progress.

然而社會進步可能會退步或低迷，

We don't want Brazil

我們不希望巴西

to become like Russia.

向俄國看齊。

What you really want is for Brazil

我們真心希望巴西

to get ever more efficient at creating social progress from its GDP,

它的GDP可以有效地 創造更好的社會進步，

so it becomes more like New Zealand.

希望它朝紐西蘭的方向邁進。

And what that means is that

那就表示，

Brazil needs to prioritize social progress

巴西的發展藍圖 應該將生活水準放在優先順位，

in its development plan

and see that it's not just growth alone,

不只看到經濟的成長，

it's growth with social progress.

而是要伴隨著社會進步的提昇。

And that's what the Social Progress Index does:

這就是「社會進步指標」的作用：

It reframes the debate about development,

它對國家發展的爭議重新定義， 不僅止於GDP，

not just about GDP alone,

but inclusive, sustainable growth

更包含永續的發展，

that brings real improvements in people's lives.

為人民的生活帶來真正的改善。

And it's not just about countries.

而且不只是國家的而已。

Earlier this year,

今年初，

with our friends from the Imazon nonprofit here in Brazil,

與一些我們在巴西的一個非營利組織 「伊馬遜」的朋友

we launched the first subnational Social Progress Index.

我們首次發佈了第一個地方政府的 社會進步指數，

We did it for the Amazon region.

那是亞馬遜地區的。

It's an area the size of Europe, 24 million people,

該地區面積和歐洲大陸相同， 2千4百萬人口，

one of the most deprived parts of the country.

是巴西國內最為落後的區域，

And here are the results,

調查結果如圖。

and this is broken down

統計結果 細分到自治市層級(近800個)，

into nearly 800 different municipalities.

And with this detailed information

有了這些細部的資訊，

about the real quality of life

反應此區域真實的生活品質，

in this part of the country,

Imazon and other partners

「伊馬遜」和配合的政府機構、 商業和民間單位

from government, business and civil society

「伊馬遜」和配合的政府機構、 商業和民間社群

can work together to construct

可以共同合作 打造出一項發展計畫，

a development plan

that will help really improve people's lives,

協助真正地提昇人民生活水準，

while protecting that precious global asset

同時並保護地球的珍貴資產： 亞馬遜雨林。

that is the Amazon Rainforest.

同時並保護地球的珍貴資產： 亞馬遜雨林。

And this is just the beginning,

這只是個開始。

You can create a Social Progress Index

你可以為任何州、郡、市、縣， 做出社會進步指標，

for any state, region, city or municipality.

你可以為任何州、郡、市、縣， 做出社會進步指標，

We all know and love TEDx;

大家都知道也喜愛「TEDx」嘛， 就仿效稱之為「社會進步x」吧。

this is Social Pogress-x.

This is a tool for anyone to come and use.

它是任何人都能使用的工具，

Contrary to the way we sometimes talk about it,

相對於我們常說

GDP was not handed down from God on tablets of stone. (Laughter)

GDP可不是由神所定， 刻在碑石上的啊。（笑聲）

It's a measurement tool invented in the 20th century

GDP是20世紀發明的量測工具，

to address the challenges of the 20th century.

用以面對20世紀的挑戰。

In the 21st century,

但在21世紀，

we face new challenges:

我們面臨新的難題，

aging, obesity, climate change, and so on.

人口老化、肥胖、氣候變遷等等，

To face those challenges,

要面對這些挑戰，

we need new tools of measurement,

我們需要新的尺度工具，

new ways of valuing progress.

新的評價機制。

Imagine if we could measure

想像如果我們可以測量

what nonprofits, charities,

非營利、慈善機構、

volunteers, civil society organizations

志工、民間社會團體

really contribute to our society.

對我們社會真正的貢獻。

Imagine if businesses competed

想像若商業競爭

not just on the basis of their economic contribution,

不只是基於對經濟的貢獻，

but on their contribution to social progress.

而是對社會進步的貢獻。

Imagine if we could hold politicians to account

想像我們可以要求從政者重視

for really improving people's lives.

真正對人民生活有助益的事。

Imagine if we could work together —

想像若我們能攜手合作 －

government, business, civil society, me, you —

政府、商界、民間社群、我、你...

and make this century the century of social progress.

讓這個世紀成為社會進步的新紀元。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）