Michael Green: What the Social Progress Index can reveal about your country

翻译人员: Matt Chan 校对人员: Yuanqing Edberg

On January 4, 1934,

1934年一月四日,

a young man delivered a report

一个年轻人向美国国会提交了

to the United States Congress

一份报告。

that 80 years on,

如今80年过去了，

still shapes the lives of everyone in this room today,

那份报告依然塑造着我们在座各位生活

still shapes the lives of everyone on this planet.

塑造着地球所每一个人的生活

That young man wasn't a politician,

那个年轻人不是一位政治家，

he wasn't a businessman,

不是一位商人，

a civil rights activist

不是一位民权活动者

or a faith leader.

也不是一位宗教领袖。

He was that most unlikely of heroes,

他是最不可能成为英雄的那类人，

an economist.

一位经济学家。

His name was Simon Kuznets

他叫西蒙·库兹涅茨

and the report that he delivered was called

他提交的报告叫做

"National Income, 1929-1932."

“国民收入，1929-1932”

Now, you might think

现在，你可能会想

this is a rather dry and dull report.

这该是一份多么枯燥无味的报告

And you're absolutely right.

毫无疑问你是对的

It's dry as a bone.

这枯燥得像骨头。

But this report is the foundation

但这份报告是我们今天衡量一个国家

of how, today, we judge the success of countries:

成功与否的标准：

what we know best as Gross Domestic Product,

我们最了解的莫过于国内生产 总值，

GDP.

GDP。

GDP has defined and shaped our lives

GDP已经定义和塑造我们的生活

for the last 80 years.

有80年之久了。

And today I want to talk about

今天我想讨论的是

a different way to measure the success of countries,

另外一种衡量国家是否成功的方法，

a different way to define and shape our lives

另外一种，在未来80年里将

for the next 80 years.

定义和塑造我们生活的方法。

But first, we have to understand

但首先，我们必须明白

how GDP came to dominate our lives.

GDP是如何支配我们生活的。

Kuznets' report was delivered

库兹涅茨的报告

at a moment of crisis.

是在危及时刻提交的。

The U.S. economy was plummeting

美国经济正在

into the Great Depression

跌入大萧条当中，

and policy makers were struggling to respond.

而政策制定者正疲于挣扎着应对这种状况

Struggling because they didn't know what was going on.

挣扎是因为他们并不明白到底怎么回事儿。

They didn't have data and statistics.

他们没有统计数据。

So what Kuznet's report gave them

所以库兹涅兹的报告给他们的

was reliable data on what the U.S. economy

是有关美国经济

正在创收的可靠数据，

was producing,

updated year by year.

并且逐年更新。

And armed with this information,

掌握了这些数据之后，

policy makers were, eventually,

执政者们终于能够找到

able to find a way out of the slump.

对策应付这场衰退了。

而库兹涅兹的发明

And because Kuznets' invention

was found to be so useful,

是如此的成功，

it spread around the world.

它被传播到世界各地。

And now today, every country

今天，每一个国家都进行

produces GDP statistics.

GDP统计。

But, in that first report,

但是，在那份最初的报告里

Kuznets himself delivered a warning.

库兹涅兹自己还提交了一份警告

It's in the introductory chapter.

就在引言那一章中

On page seven he says,

在第七页，他说道：

"The welfare of a nation can, therefore,

“因此，一个国家的国民福利

scarcely be inferred

勉强可以通过测定

from a measurement of national income

上述定义的国民收入

as defined above."

推断出来。“

It's not the greatest sound bite in the world,

这并不是世界上最伟大的一句话

and it's dressed up in the cautious language of the economist.

它是用经济学家谨慎的语言表述出来的

But his message was clear:

但是他的信息是清楚的：

GDP is a tool

GDP是一个工具，

to help us measure economic performance.

它帮助我们测量国家经济表现，

It's not a measure of our well-being.

它并不能用来测量我们的幸福感。

And it shouldn't be a guide to all decision making.

而且它也不应该成为制定所有政策的导向。

But we have ignored Kuznets' warning.

但是我们忽视了库兹涅兹的警告。

We live in a world where

我们生活在一个世界，

GDP is the benchmark of success

GDP成为衡量一个国家在全球经济化中

in a global economy.

是否成功的基准。

Our politicians boast when GDP goes up.

我们的政治家们因为GDP增长而自吹自擂。

Markets move

市场的走向

and trillions of dollars of capital

和数万亿资本

在世界范围内的流通

move around the world

based on which countries are going up

是基于哪一个国家正在崛起，

and which countries are going down,

哪一个国家正在衰落，

all measured in GDP.

这些都是由GDP测量出来的。

Our societies have become

我们的社会已经成为

engines to create more GDP.

生产GDP的巨大发动机了。

But we know that GDP is flawed.

但是我们知道GDP是存在缺陷的。

It ignores the environment.

它忽略了环境。

It counts bombs and prisons as progress.

随着进步它也算上了炸弹和监狱

It can't count happiness or community.

但它却无法算上幸福或者和谐。

And it has nothing to say about fairness or justice.

它也谈不上公平或正义

Is it any surprise that our world,

这有什么好惊讶的呢？

marching to the drumbeat of GDP,

我们的世界正走在GDP的节奏上

is teetering on the brink of environmental disaster

在环境灾难的边缘摇摇欲坠

and filled with anger and conflict?

并且充满了愤怒和冲突

We need a better way to measure our societies,

为了整个社会，我们需要更好的测量工具，

a measure based on the real things that matter to real people.

是基于真实的东西， 对人们真正重要的测量。

Do I have enough to eat?

我能不能填饱肚子？

Can I read and write?

我可以读书写字吗？

Am I safe?

我安全吗？

Do I have rights?

我有任何权利吗？

Do I live in a society where I'm not discriminated against?

我是否生活在一个没有歧视我的社会？

Is my future and the future of my children prevented from environmental destruction?

我和我孩子的未来是否受到环境毁坏的威胁？

These are questions that GDP

这些问题都是GDP

does not and cannot answer.

没有也无法回答的。

当然，已经有人

There have, of course,

been efforts in the past

在努力尝试

to move beyond GDP.

超越GDP的行动。

But I believe that we're living

但是，我相信，我们正生活

in a moment when we

are ready for a measurement revolution.

在这样的时刻，

为一场检验方法的革命做好了准备。

We're ready because we've seen,

我们准备好了，是因为我们看到了

in the financial crisis of 2008,

发生在2008年的经济危机，

how our fetish for economic growth

看到了我们对经济增长的迷恋如何把我们

led us so far astray.

带到一条不归路上。

We've seen, in the Arab Spring,

我们已经看到了，在阿拉伯之春

how countries like Tunisia

像突尼斯这样的国家

were supposedly economic superstars,

本应该是经济上的巨星，

but they were societies

但是他们的社会

that were seething with discontentment.

却在不公中沸腾。

We're ready, because today we have the technology

我们已经准备好了，因为今天我们 掌握了这样的技术

to gather and analyze data

去收集和分析数据，

in ways that would have been unimaginable to Kuznets.

这种方式是库兹涅兹无法想象的。

Today, I'd like to introduce you to the Social Progress Index.

今天，我想向大家介绍一下 社会进步指数。

It's a measure of the well-being of society,

这才是测量 社会健康程度的工具。

completely separate from GDP.

是完全不同于GDP的。

It's a whole new way of looking at the world.

是以一个全新的视角看待世界。

The Social Progress Index

社会进步指数

begins by defining what it

首先定义

means to be a good society

什么是良好的社会，

based around three dimensions.

这基于三个方面。

The first is, does everyone have the basic needs for survival:

第一个是，人们能够满足基本生存需求吗？

food, water, shelter, safety?

比如食物，水，房屋，安全

Secondly, does everyone have

第二：人们能

access to the building blocks to improve their lives:

通过各种途径提升自己的生活质量吗？

education, information, health and sustainable environment?

比如教育，信息，健康和可持续发展的环境。

And then third, does every individual have access

第三个，每一个个体都有机会

to a chance to pursue their goals

追寻他们的目标、

and dreams and ambitions

梦想和抱负

free from obstacles?

而不受阻扰吗？

Do they have rights,

他们能有权利，

freedom of choice,

有选择的自由，

freedom from discrimination

并不受歧视

and access to the the world's most advanced knowledge?

并能学到世界上最先进的知识吗？

Together, these 12 components

这12个部分一起

form the Social Progress framework.

组成了社会进步的骨架。

And for each of these 12 components,

我们对这12个部分，

we have indicators to measure how countries are performing.

都有相应的指标，来测定不同国家的表现。

Not indicators of effort or intention,

这些指标都不指示努力或者意向，

but real achievement.

但都是真实的成就。

We don't measure how much a country spends on healthcare,

我们不看一个国家在医疗保健上投入了多少钱，

we measure the length and quality of people's lives.

我们看国民生活质量和寿命长短。

We don't measure whether governments pass laws against discrimination,

我们不看政府是否通过针对歧视的法律，

we measure whether people experience discrimination.

我们看人们是否遭受着歧视。

But what you want to know

但是，你们想知道的

is who's top, don't you? (Laughter)

是谁排第一，对不对？ （笑）

I knew that, I knew that, I knew that.

我知道，我知道，我知道。

Okay, I'm going to show you.

好，我会展示给你们。

I'm going to show you on this chart.

看到这个坐标图了吧

So here we are,

就是这个，

what I've done here is put on the vertical axis social progress.

在这个坐标系上， 纵坐标是社会进步指数。

Higher is better.

越高越好。

And then, just for comparison,

然后呢，我们开始比较，

just for fun,

只是为了好玩，

on the horizontal axis is GDP per capita.

在横坐标是人均GDP。

Further to the right is more.

越向右边越大。

So the country in the world

所以呢，世界上

with the highest social progress,

社会进步指数最高的国家，

the number one country on social progress

排名第一的国家是

is New Zealand.

新西兰。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Well done! Never been; must go.

干得漂亮！没去过；一定得去一趟。

(Laughter)

（笑）

The country with the least social progress,

社会指数最低的国家，

I'm sorry to say, is Chad.

很抱歉，是乍得。

I've never been; maybe next year.

我也没有去过那里，也许明年吧。

(Laughter)

（笑）

Or maybe the year after.

或者是后年。

Now, I know what you're thinking.

现在，我知道你们在想什么。

You're thinking, "Aha,

你们在想：“啊哈，

but New Zealand has a higher GDP

但是新西兰的GDP

than Chad!"

相对于乍得要高得多！“

It's a good point, well made.

有道理，有见地。

But let me show you

但是，让我告诉你

two other countries.

另外两个国家的情况。

Here's the United States —

这是美国——

considerably richer than New Zealand,

比新西兰富裕多了，

but with a lower level of social progress.

但是其社会进步指数要低一点。

And then here's Senegal —

这是塞内加尔－

it's got a higher level of social progress than Chad,

它的社会进步指数要比乍得高，

but the same level of GDP.

但是却处于同一GDP水平。

So what's going on? Well, look.

这发生了什么？好，接下来。

Let me bring in the rest of the countries of the world,

我把剩下的国家都放上去，

the 132 we've been able to measure,

我们一共测到了132个国家，

each one represented by a dot.

每一个国家都用一个点表示。

There we go. Lots of dots.

我们看到好多的点。

Now, obviously I can't do all of them,

现在，很明显我不能每一个都介绍一遍，

so a few highlights for you:

所以选取一些突出的：

The highest ranked G7 country is Canada.

G7国家里面排名最高的是加拿大。

My country, the United Kingdom,

我的祖国，英国，

is sort of middling, sort of dull,

大概在中间，比较沉闷，

but who cares —

但谁在乎呢——

at least we beat the French.

至少我们击败了法国。

(Laughter)

（笑）

And then looking at the emerging economies,

然后再看看正在崛起的经济体，

top of the BRICS, pleased to say, is Brazil.

金砖各国里排名最高的，很高兴的说，是巴西

(Applause)

（掌声）

Come on, cheer!

拜托，欢呼起来！

Go, Brazil!

好样的，巴西！

Beating South Africa,

击败了南非，

then Russia,

俄罗斯，

then China

然后中国

and then India.

还有印度，

Tucked away on the right-hand side,

隐藏在右手边，

you will see a dot of a country with a lot of GDP

你会看到有一个点，这个点代表的国家GDP非常大

but not a huge amount of social progress —

但是它的社会进步指数却不那么高－

that's Kuwait.

这是科威特。

Just above Brazil

在巴西上面

is a social progress superpower —

是一个社会进步指数的超级大国－

that's Costa Rica.

那是哥斯达黎加。

It's got a level of social progress the same as some Western European countries,

它的社会进步指数与欧洲国家处在同一水平上，

with a much lower GDP.

但是GDP却要低得多。

Now, my slide is getting a little cluttered

现在我的幻灯片开始变得凌乱了，

and I'd like to step back a bit.

我想我应该退后几张。

So let me take away these countries,

好，让我把这些国家移除，

and then pop in the regression line.

然后放一条回归曲线。

So this shows the average relationship

这显示除了GDP和社会进步指数之间的

between GDP and social progress.

大致关系。

The first thing to notice,

我们首先注意到，

is that there's lots of noise

在趋势线的附近有许多的

around the trend line.

背景噪声。

And what this shows,

这表示

what this empirically demonstrates,

从经验上已经证实，

is that GDP is not destiny.

GDP并不是目的。

At every level of GDP per capita,

处在任何一个人均GDP水平上，

there are opportunities for more social progress,

我们都有机会提高社会进步指数，

risks of less.

并且风险更低。

The second thing to notice

我们应该注意到的第二件事情是

is that for poor countries,

对于贫穷的国家来说，

the curve is really steep.

曲线是非常陡峭的。

So what this tells us is that

这告诉我们

if poor countries can get

如果贫穷的国家可以

a little bit of extra GDP,

得到一点额外的GDP

and if they reinvest that

并且把这部分重新投资在

in doctors, nurses, water supplies,

医疗设施建设和供水系统

sanitation, etc.,

改善卫生状况当中，

there's a lot of social progress bang

那么你的GDP增长还可以引起

for your GDP buck.

很多的社会进步反响。

And that's good news, and that's what we've seen over the last 20, 30 years,

这是一个好消息，这也是我们在过去 20年，30年之内所见到的，

with a lot of people lifted out of poverty

在更加贫困的国家，

by economic growth and good policies

因为经济增长和有利政策

in poorer countries.

许多人都脱离了贫困。

But go on a bit further up the curve,

再看曲线较高的那一部分，

and then we see it flattening out.

然后我们看到曲线变得渐渐平坦。

Each extra dollar of GDP

之后每增加的一份GDP

is buying less and less social progress.

将得到越来越少的社会进步的增长。

And with more and more of the world's population

随着世界上越来越多的人

living on this part of the curve,

生活在这一部分的曲线当中，

it means GDP is becoming

这意味着GDP

作为发展导向的作用

less and less useful

正变得越来越小。

as a guide to our development.

I'll show you an example of Brazil.

我会拿巴西作为一个例子。

Here's Brazil:

这是巴西：

social progress of about 70 out of 100,

社会进步指数大概在70（满分100），

GDP per capita about 14,000 dollars a year.

人均GDP大概在14,000美元一年。

And look, Brazil's above the line.

看，巴西是处于这条线的上方。

Brazil is doing a reasonably good job

在把GDP转化为社会进步指数这方面，

of turning GDP into social progress.

巴西做得相当不错。

But where does Brazil go next?

但是，接下来巴西会走向那里呢？

Let's say that Brazil

我们假设巴西

adopts a bold economic plan

采取了一个风险较大的经济计划

to double GDP in the next decade.

在未来十年内，GDP翻了一翻。

But that is only half a plan.

但这是计划的一半。

It's less than half a plan,

应该是一半都不到

because where does Brazil want to go on social progress?

因为巴西的社会进步指数又会怎么变化呢？

Brazil, it's possible

巴西有可能

to increase your growth,

增加发展，

increase your GDP,

增加GDP，

while stagnating or going backwards

但是却在社会进步上

on social progress.

变得停滞不前甚至倒退。

We don't want Brazil

我们都不希望巴西

to become like Russia.

变得和俄罗斯一样。

What you really want is for Brazil

我们真正希望巴西做的

to get ever more efficient at creating social progress from its GDP,

是从GDP那里更有效地助动社会进步，

so it becomes more like New Zealand.

所以这会让它变得更象新西兰。

And what that means is that

这意味着

Brazil needs to prioritize social progress

巴西在其发展计划当中

in its development plan

需要优先提高社会进步。

and see that it's not just growth alone,

而且弄清楚这不仅仅是经济增长，

it's growth with social progress.

而是社会的进步。

And that's what the Social Progress Index does:

这就是社会进步指数所做的：

It reframes the debate about development,

它重新构架了关于发展的讨论，

not just about GDP alone,

这并不只是GDP而已，

but inclusive, sustainable growth

而是更包容的，可持续的增长，

that brings real improvements in people's lives.

给人们的生活水平带来实质性的提高。

And it's not just about countries.

而不只是不同国家的比较。

Earlier this year,

今年早些时候，

with our friends from the Imazon nonprofit here in Brazil,

在巴西当地，和我们来自 Imazon非营利组织的朋友一起，

we launched the first subnational Social Progress Index.

我们开展了第一个地方性的社会进步指数。

We did it for the Amazon region.

我们是为了亚马逊地区办的。

It's an area the size of Europe, 24 million people,

这片区域大概有一个欧洲那么大， 两千四百万人口，

one of the most deprived parts of the country.

是这个国家里面最落后的地区之一。

And here are the results,

这里是我们的一些成果，

and this is broken down

这细分成了

into nearly 800 different municipalities.

将近800个不同的城市。

And with this detailed information

有了这些有关于

about the real quality of life

这个国家当中这些地区的人

in this part of the country,

真实生活水平的细节性信息，

Imazon and other partners

Imanzon和其他

from government, business and civil society

来自政府的，企业的，民间的伙伴

can work together to construct

可以合作，共同构建

a development plan

一个发展计划，

that will help really improve people's lives,

来真正帮助人们提高生活水平，

while protecting that precious global asset

同时还可以保护地球的宝贵财富，

that is the Amazon Rainforest.

那就是亚马逊热带雨林。

And this is just the beginning,

而这只是一个开始，

You can create a Social Progress Index

我们可以得到

任何一个国家，一个地区，城市， 直辖市的社会进步指数。

for any state, region, city or municipality.

We all know and love TEDx;

我们都知道并热爱TEDx；

this is Social Pogress-x.

这就是社会进步的x因素。

This is a tool for anyone to come and use.

这是一个任何人都可以利用的工具

Contrary to the way we sometimes talk about it,

与我们平时讨论方式相反的是，

GDP was not handed down from God on tablets of stone. (Laughter)

GDP并不是上帝掷给我们的一块石头。（笑）

It's a measurement tool invented in the 20th century

它是20世纪开发出来的测量工具

to address the challenges of the 20th century.

用来解决20世纪的问题。

In the 21st century,

在21世纪，

we face new challenges:

我们面对的是全新的挑战：

aging, obesity, climate change, and so on.

人口老龄化，肥胖，气候转变等等。

To face those challenges,

为了解决这些挑战，

we need new tools of measurement,

我们需要新的测量工具，

new ways of valuing progress.

新的评价进步的方法。

Imagine if we could measure

想像一下，假如我们可以测量

what nonprofits, charities,

非营利组织，慈善机构，

volunteers, civil society organizations

志愿者，民间社会组织

really contribute to our society.

对我们社会的做了什么贡献。

Imagine if businesses competed

想象假如企业之间的竞争

not just on the basis of their economic contribution,

并不只是基于经济效益，

but on their contribution to social progress.

而是关于他们对社会进步的贡献。

Imagine if we could hold politicians to account

想象我们可以让政治家们

for really improving people's lives.

为真正提高人们生活水平而负起责任来。

Imagine if we could work together —

想象假如我们可以一起合作——

government, business, civil society, me, you —

政府，企业，社会组织，我，你——

and make this century the century of social progress.

使这个世纪成为社会进步的世纪。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）