Richard Sears: Planning for the end of oil

Prevodilac: Mile Živković Lektor: Tatjana Jevdjic

For the next few minutes we're going to talk about energy,

Sledećih nekoliko minuta pričaćemo o energiji

and it's going to be a bit of a varied talk.

i govor će biti pomalo šarolik.

I'll try to spin a story about energy,

Pokušaću da okrenem priču o energiji

and oil's a convenient starting place.

i nafta zvuči kao zgodan početak.

The talk will be broadly about energy,

Govor će biti o energiji uopšteno,

but oil's a good place to start.

ali nafta je dobar početak.

And one of the reasons is this is remarkable stuff.

Jedan od razloga je to što je nafta neverovatna.

You take about eight or so carbon atoms,

Uzmete oko 8 atoma ugljenika,

about 20 hydrogen atoms,

oko 20 atoma vodonika,

you put them together in exactly the right way

sastavite ih na pravi način

and you get this marvelous liquid:

i dobićete ovu veličanstvenu tečnost:

very energy-dense and very easy to refine

nabijenu energijom i veoma laku za rafinisanje

into a number of very useful products and fuels.

u veliki broj korisnih proizvoda i goriva.

It's great stuff.

Nafta je sjajna stvar.

Now, as far as it goes,

Kako stvari stoje,

there's a lot of oil out there in the world.

u svetu postoji dosta nafte.

Here's my little pocket map

Ovde je moja mala džepna mapa

of where it's all located.

sa lokacijama nafte.

A bigger one for you to look at.

Evo jedne veće za vas.

But this is it, this is the oil in the world.

Ali to je to, ovo je sva nafta u svetu.

Geologists have a pretty good idea of where the oil is.

Geolozi prilično dobro znaju gde se nafta nalazi.

This is about 100 trillion gallons

Ovo je oko 100 triliona galona

of crude oil

sirove nafte

still to be developed and produced in the world today.

koja tek treba da se razvije i proizvede u svetu danas.

Now, that's just one story about oil,

Ovo je samo jedna priča o nafti,

and we could end it there and say,

i mogli bismo ovde završiti i reći:

"Well, oil's going to last forever

"Pa, nafta će zauvek da traje

because, well, there's just a lot of it."

jer jednostavno je ima puno."

But there's actually more to the story than that.

Ali postoji puno više toga u vezi sa ovom pričom.

Oh, by the way, if you think you're very far from some of this oil,

Ako mislite da ste veoma daleko od ove nafte,

1000 meters below where you're all sitting

1 000 metara ispod vaših sedišta

is one of the largest producing oil fields in the world.

je jedno od najvećih polja nafte na svetu.

Come talk to me about it, I'll fill in some of the details if you want.

Ako želite da saznate više dođite da popričamo o tome.

So, that's one of the stories of oil; there's just a lot of it.

Dakle to je jedna od priča o nafti; jednostavno je ima puno.

But what about oil? Where is it in the energy system?

Ali šta je sa naftom? Gde je u energetskom sistemu?

Here's a little snapshot of 150 years of oil,

Evo jednog grafika o 150 godina nafte

and it's been a dominant part of our energy system

i ona je dominatna u našem energetskom sistemu

for most of those 150 years.

većinom tih 150 godina.

Now, here's another little secret I'm going to tell you about:

A evo još jedne tajne koju ću vam reći:

For the last 25 years,

poslednjih 25 godina,

oil has been playing less and less of a role

nafta igra sve manju ulogu

in global energy systems.

u globalnim energetskim sistemima.

There was one kind of peak oil in 1985,

Nafta je doživela jedan vrhunac u 1985.,

when oil represented 50 percent of global energy supply.

kada je činila 50% globalnih zaliha energije.

Now, it's about 35 percent.

Trenutno čini oko 35%.

It's been declining

Ovaj procenat je pao

and I believe it will continue to decline.

i verujem da će nastaviti da pada.

Gasoline consumption in the U.S. probably peaked in 2007

Potrošnja benzina u SAD je verovatno dostigla vrhunac u 2007.

and is declining.

i od tada pada.

So oil is playing a less significant role

Tako da nafta svake godine

every year.

ima sve manju ulogu.

And so, 25 years ago,

Pre 25 godina,

there was a peak oil;

nafta je bila na vrhuncu;

just like, in the 1920s,

baš kao što je 1920-ih,

there was a peak coal;

ugalj bio na vrhuncu;

and a hundred years before that,

i 100 godina pre toga,

there was a peak wood.

drvo je bilo na vrhuncu.

This is a very important picture of the evolution of energy systems.

Ovo je veoma važna slika evolucije energetskih sistema.

And what's been taking up the slack in the last few decades?

A šta je napredovalo poslednjih par decenija?

Well, a lot of natural gas

Pa, dosta prirodnog gasa

and a little bit of nuclear, for starters.

i pomalo nuklearne energije, za početak.

And what goes on in the future?

A šta će biti u budućnosti?

Well, I think out ahead of us a few decades

Pa, mislim da će u sledećih nekoliko decenija

is peak gas,

na vrhuncu biti gas,

and beyond that,

a posle toga,

peak renewables.

obnovljiva energija.

Now, I'll tell you another little, very important

Reći ću vam još nešto veoma važno

story about this picture.

u vezi sa ovom slikom.

Now, I'm not pretending that energy use in total

Neću da se pretvaram da ukupna potrošnja energije

isn't increasing, it is --

ne raste, ona zaista raste -

that's another part of the story. Come talk to me about it,

to je još jedan deo priče. Ako želite više detalja,

we'll fill in some of the details --

obratite mi se -

but there's a very important message here:

ali tu je veoma važna poruka:

This is 200 years of history,

ovo je 200 godina istorije,

and for 200 years we've been systematically decarbonizing

i za 200 godina smo sistematski uklanjali ugljenik

our energy system.

iz našeg energetskog sistema.

Energy systems of the world

Energetski sistemi sveta

becoming progressively -- year on year,

su postepeno - godinu za godinom,

decade on decade, century on century --

decenijom za decenijom, vek za vekom -

becoming less carbon intense.

postajali manje fokusirani na ugljenik.

And that continues into the future

I to će se nastaviti i u budućnosti

with the renewables that we're developing today,

sa obnovljivim energijama koje sada razvijamo,

reaching maybe 30 percent of primary energy

i koje će dostići možda 30% primarne energije

by mid century.

do sredine veka.

Now that might be the end of the story --

I ovo može biti kraj priče -

Okay, we just replace it all with conventional renewables --

okej, zamenićemo sve sa konvencionalnom obnovljivom energijom -

but I think, actually, there's more to the story than that.

ali mislim da u stvari ima nešto više u vezi sa ovom pričom.

And to tell the next part of the story --

Sledeći deo priče je -

and this is looking out say 2100 and beyond.

ovde gledamo od 2100. godina i dalje.

What is the future

Šta je budućnost

of truly sustainable, carbon-free energy?

zaista održive energije bez ugljenika?

Well, we have to take a little excursion,

Moramo krenuti na malo putovanje,

and we'll start in central Texas.

i krenućemo iz srca Teksasa.

Here's a piece of limestone.

Ovo je komad krečnjaka.

I picked it up outside of Marble Falls, Texas.

Pokupio sam ga kod Marbl Folsa u Teksasu.

It's about 400 million years old.

Star je oko 400 miliona godina.

And it's just limestone, nothing really special about it.

To je samo krečnjak, ništa posebno.

Now, here's a piece of chalk.

A ovde je komad krede.

I picked this up at MIT. It's a little younger.

Ovo sam uzeo na MIT univerzitetu. Malo je mlađa od krečnjaka.

And it's different than this limestone, you can see that.

Drugačija od njega, to možete da vidite.

You wouldn't build a building out of this stuff,

Ne biste napravili zgradu od ovoga,

and you wouldn't try to give a lecture and write on the chalkboard with this.

i ne biste pokušali da predajete i pišete na tabli s ovim.

Yeah, it's very different -- no, it's not different.

Da, zaista su drugačiji - ne, nisu.

It's not different, it's the same stuff:

Ne, nisu drugačiji, u pitanju je ista stvar:

calcium carbonate, calcium carbonate.

kalcijum karbonat i kalcijum karbonat.

What's different is how the molecules are put together.

Razlika je u rasporedu molekula.

Now, if you think that's kind of neat,

Ako mislite da je to super,

the story gets really neat right now.

ovo što sledi je stvarno super.

Off the coast of California comes this:

Sa obale Kalifornije stiže ovo:

It's an abalone shell.

to je sedefasta školjka.

Now, millions of abalone every year

Milioni školjki svake godine

make this shell.

proizvode ovu ljušturu.

Oh, by the way, just in case you weren't already guessing,

I da, ako već niste pogodili,

it's calcium carbonate.

napravljena je od kalcijum karbonata.

It's the same stuff as this

To je ista stvar kao i ovo

and the same stuff as this.

i ista stvar kao ovo.

But it's not the same stuff; it's different.

Ali nije ista; drugačija je.

It's thousands of times,

Jača je 1 000,

maybe 3,000 times tougher than this.

možda 3 000 puta od ovoga.

And why? Because the lowly abalone

A zašto? Zato što male školjke

is able to lay down

mogu da rasporede

the calcium carbonate crystals in layers,

kristale kalcijum karbonata u slojevima,

making this beautiful, iridescent

i naprave ovaj predivni sedef

mother of pearl.

koji se preliva u duginim bojama.

Very specialized material

To je veoma specijalizovan materijal

that the abalone self-assembles,

koji školjke same prave,

millions of abalone,

milioni školjki,

all the time, every day, every year.

non-stop, svakog dana, svake godine.

This is pretty incredible stuff.

Ovo je zaista neverovatno.

All the same, what's different?

Sve je isto, a šta je drugačije?

How the molecules are put together.

Način na koji su spojeni molekuli.

Now, what does this have to do with energy?

Kakve ovo veze ima sa energijom?

Here's a piece of coal.

Ovo je komad uglja.

And I'll suggest that this coal

I tvrdim da je ovaj ugalj

is about as exciting

jednako uzbudljiv

as this chalk.

kao ova kreda.

Now, whether we're talking about fuels

Bez obzira da li pričamo o gorivu

or energy carriers,

ili prenosnicima energije

or perhaps novel materials for batteries

ili novim materijalima za baterije

or fuel cells,

ili ćelijama goriva,

nature hasn't ever built those perfect materials yet

priroda još uvek nije napravila te savršene materijale

because nature didn't need to.

jer joj nije potrebno.

Nature didn't need to because, unlike the abalone shell,

Prirodi nije potrebno jer, za razliku od školjki,

the survival of a species didn't depend

opstanak jedne vrste

on building those materials,

nije zavisio od pravljenja tih materijala,

until maybe now when it might just matter.

sve do sada kada je to možda bitno.

So, when we think about the future of energy,

Kada razmišljamo o budućnosti energije

imagine

zamislite

what would it be like

kako bi bilo

if instead of this,

kada bi umesto ovoga,

we could build the energy equivalent of this

mogli da napravimo energetski ekvivalent ovoga

just by rearranging the molecules differently.

običnom preraspodelom molekula.

And so that is my story.

I to je moja priča.

The oil will never run out.

Nafte neće nikad nestati.

It's not because we have a lot of it.

Ne zato što je imamo puno.

It's not because we're going to build a bajillion windmills.

Ne zato što ćemo napraviti gazilion vetrenjača.

It's because, well,

To je zato što

thousands of years ago,

hiljadama godina ranije

people invented ideas --

ljudi su smislili ideje -

they had ideas, innovations, technology --

imali su ideje, inovaciju, tehnologiju -

and the Stone Age ended,

i kameno doba se završilo,

not because we ran out of stones.

ne zato što nam je nestalo kamenja.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

It's ideas, it's innovation, it's technology

Ideje, inovacija i tehnologija

that will end the age of oil, long before we run out of oil.

su ti koji će završiti doba nafte, mnogo pre nego što nafte nestane.

Thank you very much.

Puno vam hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)