Richard Sears: Planning for the end of oil

翻译人员: Angelia King 校对人员: JINGJING DONG

For the next few minutes we're going to talk about energy,

下面的几分钟，我们将来谈论能源。

and it's going to be a bit of a varied talk.

并且，这将是一次有点与众不同的演讲。

I'll try to spin a story about energy,

我将讲述一个关于能源的故事，

and oil's a convenient starting place.

就先从石油开始好了。

The talk will be broadly about energy,

我的演说涵盖了能源的多个方面，

but oil's a good place to start.

但从石油开始讲比较好。

And one of the reasons is this is remarkable stuff.

其中一个原因是，它的作用很了不起。

You take about eight or so carbon atoms,

用八个左右的碳原子

about 20 hydrogen atoms,

加上二十个氢原子

you put them together in exactly the right way

以正确的方式组合，

and you get this marvelous liquid:

你就可以得到这瓶神奇的液体,

very energy-dense and very easy to refine

它有巨大的能量，也很容易就可以提炼

into a number of very useful products and fuels.

出非常实用的产品和燃料。

It's great stuff.

这的确是好东西。

Now, as far as it goes,

现在，就我们所知，在世界上

there's a lot of oil out there in the world.

还有很多石油资源。

Here's my little pocket map

这是我的小袖珍地图，

of where it's all located.

上面标示了所有石油分布的地方。

A bigger one for you to look at.

你们也可以看比较大的这一张。

But this is it, this is the oil in the world.

就是这样，这些就是世界上石油的分布。

Geologists have a pretty good idea of where the oil is.

地质学者们对此石油储存有很明确想法。

This is about 100 trillion gallons

现在全世界大约还有100万亿加仑的

of crude oil

原生油

still to be developed and produced in the world today.

还可以继续被开发和提炼。

Now, that's just one story about oil,

现在，关于石油的一个说法，

and we could end it there and say,

我们也许不可能会用尽它并说，

"Well, oil's going to last forever

“好吧，石油没准会永远存在，

because, well, there's just a lot of it."

因为，还有很多石油储存。”

But there's actually more to the story than that.

但更多关于此的说法却相反。

Oh, by the way, if you think you're very far from some of this oil,

顺便说一下，如果你认为你远离一些石油储存的勘测地点，

1000 meters below where you're all sitting

就在离我们这现场有1000米的地方

is one of the largest producing oil fields in the world.

就是全世界最大石油生产地之一。

Come talk to me about it, I'll fill in some of the details if you want.

如果你有兴趣可以找我谈谈。我可以为你提供一些资料。

So, that's one of the stories of oil; there's just a lot of it.

这也只是石油的一部分事实，还有很多很多。

But what about oil? Where is it in the energy system?

但究竟石油是什么？在能源体系石油起什么作用？

Here's a little snapshot of 150 years of oil,

这是一张150年来石油在能源体系的比重图，

and it's been a dominant part of our energy system

也就是说，石油在这150年时间里，大多数是我们能源体系

for most of those 150 years.

的主宰者。

Now, here's another little secret I'm going to tell you about:

现在，我要告诉各位一个小秘密。

For the last 25 years,

在过去25年，

oil has been playing less and less of a role

石油在全球能源体系中所占的比重

in global energy systems.

正在持续下降。

There was one kind of peak oil in 1985,

在1985年石油的比重达到高峰，

when oil represented 50 percent of global energy supply.

那时石油在全球能源供应体系中高达50%。

Now, it's about 35 percent.

现在，石油占35%。

It's been declining

这比重还在下降，

and I believe it will continue to decline.

我相信石油所占比重还会继续下降。

Gasoline consumption in the U.S. probably peaked in 2007

在2007年，美国的汽油消费可能到达峰值

and is declining.

并且开始呈下降趋势。

So oil is playing a less significant role

因此石油重要性

every year.

正在逐年下降，

And so, 25 years ago,

大概25年前，

there was a peak oil;

石油峰值第一次出现，

just like, in the 1920s,

就好比1920年代

there was a peak coal;

的煤炭峰值，

and a hundred years before that,

在100年前

there was a peak wood.

的木材峰值。

This is a very important picture of the evolution of energy systems.

请看这张非常重要的能源体系发展的图片。

And what's been taking up the slack in the last few decades?

在过去数十年，究竟是什么取代了石油的地位呢？

Well, a lot of natural gas

开始时是用大量天然气

and a little bit of nuclear, for starters.

和极少的核能。

And what goes on in the future?

在未来会发生什么呢？

Well, I think out ahead of us a few decades

好吧，我超前想未来数十年

is peak gas,

出现天然气峰值，

and beyond that,

甚至是，

peak renewables.

可再生能源的峰值。

Now, I'll tell you another little, very important

现在，我将告诉你们关于此图片另一个非常重要的

story about this picture.

事。

Now, I'm not pretending that energy use in total

我不是说全球能源使用量没有增加，

isn't increasing, it is --

事实上是在增加的。

that's another part of the story. Come talk to me about it,

那又是另外一回事，来和我一起谈论这话题。

we'll fill in some of the details --

我们会谈到一些具体细节。

but there's a very important message here:

但是这有一个非常关键讯息。

This is 200 years of history,

在过去200年历史中，

and for 200 years we've been systematically decarbonizing

200多年来，我们一直在系统地使

our energy system.

我们能源体系脱碳。

Energy systems of the world

日复一日，

becoming progressively -- year on year,

年复一年，

decade on decade, century on century --

数十年来，甚至数个世纪以来，

becoming less carbon intense.

全球能源体系正逐渐地大力地在转化成低碳能源体系。

And that continues into the future

当今我们发展了可再生能源，

with the renewables that we're developing today,

在未来随着它继续发展，

reaching maybe 30 percent of primary energy

在本世纪中叶可能占到30%的能源供应

by mid century.

。

Now that might be the end of the story --

你以为演说到这里就可以结束了吗？

Okay, we just replace it all with conventional renewables --

我们仅用可重复使用的可再生能源来完全代替石油--

but I think, actually, there's more to the story than that.

但是我又想，现实中，比这种解决方法肯定要多得多。

And to tell the next part of the story --

接下来的部分--

and this is looking out say 2100 and beyond.

让我们展望，2100年甚至更远。

What is the future

什么才是未来

of truly sustainable, carbon-free energy?

真正可持续的，无碳的能源？

Well, we have to take a little excursion,

好吧，让我们启程小游一下。

and we'll start in central Texas.

我们来到得克萨斯州中部。

Here's a piece of limestone.

这是一块石灰岩。

I picked it up outside of Marble Falls, Texas.

我在德克萨斯州马布尔福尔斯捡到它。

It's about 400 million years old.

它大概有4亿年历史。

And it's just limestone, nothing really special about it.

它只是石灰岩，没什么特别的。

Now, here's a piece of chalk.

现在看到的是一块粉笔。

I picked this up at MIT. It's a little younger.

我从M.I.T(麻省理工学院)拿来的。它的历史比较短。

And it's different than this limestone, you can see that.

粉笔比起这石灰岩就有所不同。你可以看得出来。

You wouldn't build a building out of this stuff,

我们不会用粉笔来搞建筑，

and you wouldn't try to give a lecture and write on the chalkboard with this.

我们也不会在一堂讲课中用石灰岩在黑板上写字。

Yeah, it's very different -- no, it's not different.

是嘛，它们的确不同。不是的，它们没什么截然不同。

It's not different, it's the same stuff:

就是没有不同，它们是同样的材料，

calcium carbonate, calcium carbonate.

碳酸钙，同样的碳酸钙。

What's different is how the molecules are put together.

有所区别的是分子排序的问题。

Now, if you think that's kind of neat,

如果你认为这很神奇，

the story gets really neat right now.

真正神奇的还在后头。

Off the coast of California comes this:

我们来谈谈在California(加利福尼亚)海岸边的

It's an abalone shell.

鲍鱼壳。

Now, millions of abalone every year

现在每年数以万计鲍鱼

make this shell.

自产这种壳。

Oh, by the way, just in case you weren't already guessing,

顺便说一下，没准你也会猜到，

it's calcium carbonate.

这也是碳酸钙。

It's the same stuff as this

鲍鱼壳和这石灰岩

and the same stuff as this.

和这粉笔都是同样的材料。

But it's not the same stuff; it's different.

但它们又是完全不同的东西。

It's thousands of times,

这鲍鱼壳比这粉笔要

maybe 3,000 times tougher than this.

坚硬数千倍，甚至3000倍。

And why? Because the lowly abalone

为什么呢？因为这些不起眼的鲍鱼

is able to lay down

能够产出

the calcium carbonate crystals in layers,

碳酸钙晶体层

making this beautiful, iridescent

而变成这种美丽的，闪光

mother of pearl.

的珠母层。

Very specialized material

每年中的每一天，

that the abalone self-assembles,

数以万计鲍鱼自产

millions of abalone,

这种

all the time, every day, every year.

非常特殊的材料。

This is pretty incredible stuff.

这是非常不可思议的材料。

All the same, what's different?

尽管如此，有什么不同呢？

How the molecules are put together.

分子如何排序在一起。

Now, what does this have to do with energy?

那么，这又与能源有什么关系？

Here's a piece of coal.

这是一块煤。

And I'll suggest that this coal

这块煤就好比这块粉笔

is about as exciting

一样

as this chalk.

有意思。

Now, whether we're talking about fuels

现在尽管我们经常谈论燃料，

or energy carriers,

能源载体，

or perhaps novel materials for batteries

或者是电池或者燃料电池的新材料时

or fuel cells,

，

nature hasn't ever built those perfect materials yet

大自然还没提供给我们这么完美的材料，

because nature didn't need to.

因为大自然没有这个必要。

Nature didn't need to because, unlike the abalone shell,

之所以这样是因为大自然不会像鲍鱼壳，

the survival of a species didn't depend

除非到现在，只有当这种材料变得很重要，

on building those materials,

或许只有生成这种材料，

until maybe now when it might just matter.

各物种才会生存下来，大自然才会生成它。

So, when we think about the future of energy,

所以让我们思考一下能源的未来，

imagine

想象一下

what would it be like

，

if instead of this,

除了煤炭之外，

we could build the energy equivalent of this

我们可以制造出替代能源，

just by rearranging the molecules differently.

只要把分子重新排序，那将会是什么样子？

And so that is my story.

这就是我要谈的。

The oil will never run out.

石油永远不会用尽，

It's not because we have a lot of it.

不是因为我们还有很多石油，

It's not because we're going to build a bajillion windmills.

也不是因为我们打算建数不计的风车，

It's because, well,

而是因为

thousands of years ago,

数千年前，

people invented ideas --

人们搞发明，

they had ideas, innovations, technology --

有想法，创新性，科技。

and the Stone Age ended,

石器时代的结束

not because we ran out of stones.

不是取决于人类用完了石头。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

It's ideas, it's innovation, it's technology

而是想法，创新性和科技

that will end the age of oil, long before we run out of oil.

使得我们不会用尽石油而终结石油时代。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）