Richard Sears: Planning for the end of oil

譯者: Marie Wu 審譯者: Terry Lin

For the next few minutes we're going to talk about energy,

接下來的幾分鐘，我們來談談能源。

and it's going to be a bit of a varied talk.

這是一個不太一樣的演說，

I'll try to spin a story about energy,

我會告訴你們一些有關能源的事，

and oil's a convenient starting place.

就從石油開始好了。

The talk will be broadly about energy,

我的演說涵蓋了能源的多個面向，

but oil's a good place to start.

但從石油開始講起是個不錯的選擇。

And one of the reasons is this is remarkable stuff.

其中一個原因是，這是很了不起的東西。

You take about eight or so carbon atoms,

你拿八個碳原子，

about 20 hydrogen atoms,

加上二十個氫原子，

you put them together in exactly the right way

用正確的方式組合，

and you get this marvelous liquid:

就可以得到這瓶神奇的液體。

very energy-dense and very easy to refine

很有用的能源，

into a number of very useful products and fuels.

很容易就可以從中提煉出許多有用的產品與燃料，

It's great stuff.

真的很棒。

Now, as far as it goes,

現在，就我們所知，

there's a lot of oil out there in the world.

世界上還有許多石油的存量。

Here's my little pocket map

這是我的石油小地圖，

of where it's all located.

上面標示了所有的石油蘊藏地點。

A bigger one for you to look at.

你們可以看大一點的地圖，

But this is it, this is the oil in the world.

就是這樣。這些是世界上所有的石油。

Geologists have a pretty good idea of where the oil is.

地質學家們都知道石油蘊藏的地點，

This is about 100 trillion gallons

世界上大約還有一兆加侖

of crude oil

的原油，

still to be developed and produced in the world today.

等待我們去開採及提煉。

Now, that's just one story about oil,

這只是關於石油的一部分事實，

and we could end it there and say,

我們大可以先談到這裡，然後說

"Well, oil's going to last forever

「石油的供給量不成問題嘛，

because, well, there's just a lot of it."

還有這麼多...」

But there's actually more to the story than that.

但事實不只如此。

Oh, by the way, if you think you're very far from some of this oil,

對了，如果你覺得你離油田很遠，

1000 meters below where you're all sitting

各位現在座位下方一千公尺的地方，

is one of the largest producing oil fields in the world.

就是世界上石油蘊藏量最多的地點之一。

Come talk to me about it, I'll fill in some of the details if you want.

如果你想深入瞭解更多細節，可以私下再找我討論。

So, that's one of the stories of oil; there's just a lot of it.

這是關於石油的一部分事實，石油存量其實還很多。

But what about oil? Where is it in the energy system?

石油到底有什麼用？石油在能源體系裡扮演什麼角色？

Here's a little snapshot of 150 years of oil,

這是150年來石油在能源體系的比重，

and it's been a dominant part of our energy system

在這150年來，

for most of those 150 years.

石油一直扮演很吃重的角色。

Now, here's another little secret I'm going to tell you about:

現在，我要告訴各位一個小祕密，

For the last 25 years,

在過去的25年裡，

oil has been playing less and less of a role

石油在全球能源體系裡所佔的比重

in global energy systems.

正在持續下降。

There was one kind of peak oil in 1985,

在1985年石油的比重達到高峰，

when oil represented 50 percent of global energy supply.

那時的比重高達全球能源的百分之50。

Now, it's about 35 percent.

現在大約只有百分之35，

It's been declining

比以前下降了，

and I believe it will continue to decline.

我相信還會持續下降。

Gasoline consumption in the U.S. probably peaked in 2007

在美國，汽油的比重在2007年達到高峰，

and is declining.

現在也開始下降。

So oil is playing a less significant role

石油的重要性

every year.

正在逐年下降，

And so, 25 years ago,

在25年以前，

there was a peak oil;

石油的比重達到高峰，

just like, in the 1920s,

就像在1920年代，

there was a peak coal;

煤炭的比重達到高峰，

and a hundred years before that,

而在100年之前，

there was a peak wood.

木柴的比重也曾達到高峰。

This is a very important picture of the evolution of energy systems.

這張圖清楚地刻劃出能源系統演進的過程。

And what's been taking up the slack in the last few decades?

在過去數十年裡，究竟是什麼取代了石油呢？

Well, a lot of natural gas

嗯，天然氣和一些核能，

and a little bit of nuclear, for starters.

這些能源剛開始起步。

And what goes on in the future?

未來會用什麼能源呢？

Well, I think out ahead of us a few decades

嗯，我想在未來的數十年裡，

is peak gas,

天然氣的比重會達到高峰，

and beyond that,

再過來可能是些

peak renewables.

可重複使用的能源。

Now, I'll tell you another little, very important

就這張圖片，

story about this picture.

我想再告訴各位一件重要的事。

Now, I'm not pretending that energy use in total

我不是說全球的能源耗用量沒有增加，

isn't increasing, it is --

事實上是在增加的。

that's another part of the story. Come talk to me about it,

那又是另外一回事，想知道的人可以來找我談，

we'll fill in some of the details --

我會再補充給你細節資料。

but there's a very important message here:

有一個很重要的訊息隱藏在裡面，

This is 200 years of history,

這是200年來的能源史，

and for 200 years we've been systematically decarbonizing

在這200年來，我們在能源體系上

our energy system.

不斷地降低碳排放量。

Energy systems of the world

全世界的能源體系，

becoming progressively -- year on year,

一年又一年、

decade on decade, century on century --

數十年又數十年、幾百年又幾百年，

becoming less carbon intense.

逐漸地在降低對碳的依賴程度。

And that continues into the future

未來也會持續降低，

with the renewables that we're developing today,

因為我們現在所在開發的可重複使用的能源，

reaching maybe 30 percent of primary energy

在本世紀中可能就會佔所有能源的

by mid century.

百分之30。

Now that might be the end of the story --

你以為演說到這裡就可以結束了吧？

Okay, we just replace it all with conventional renewables --

我們把所有能源都用可重複使用的能源來代替不就得了？

but I think, actually, there's more to the story than that.

我覺得事情沒那麼簡單。

And to tell the next part of the story --

接下來的部分，

and this is looking out say 2100 and beyond.

就要往前看，看看2100年之後的情形。

What is the future

未來真正能持久

of truly sustainable, carbon-free energy?

又沒有碳排放的能源到底是什麼？

Well, we have to take a little excursion,

嗯，我們得先安排一段小小的旅行。

and we'll start in central Texas.

我們先從德州中部開始，

Here's a piece of limestone.

這是一塊石灰石，

I picked it up outside of Marble Falls, Texas.

我在德州的馬波佛市市郊撿到的，

It's about 400 million years old.

這大約有四億年的歷史了，

And it's just limestone, nothing really special about it.

而這只是一塊石灰石，沒有什麼特別的。

Now, here's a piece of chalk.

這裡還有一截粉筆，

I picked this up at MIT. It's a little younger.

我在麻省理工學院拿來的，這個就年輕多了，

And it's different than this limestone, you can see that.

也和石灰石不同，從外表就看得出來。

You wouldn't build a building out of this stuff,

你不會用這玩意兒來蓋房子，

and you wouldn't try to give a lecture and write on the chalkboard with this.

你也不會在課堂上用這個在黑板上書寫。

Yeah, it's very different -- no, it's not different.

對，這二個是很不一樣。但不對哦，他們沒什麼不同，

It's not different, it's the same stuff:

就是沒有不同，他們基本上一樣，

calcium carbonate, calcium carbonate.

都是碳酸鈣，這也是碳酸鈣。

What's different is how the molecules are put together.

唯一不同的，就只是分子排列的方式不同而已。

Now, if you think that's kind of neat,

如果你覺得這很神奇，

the story gets really neat right now.

真正神奇的還在後頭。

Off the coast of California comes this:

在加州的海岸邊，有這個東西，

It's an abalone shell.

這是鮑魚的殼。

Now, millions of abalone every year

每年有數百萬的鮑魚

make this shell.

在製造這些殼。

Oh, by the way, just in case you weren't already guessing,

對了，你猜的沒錯，

it's calcium carbonate.

這也是碳酸鈣。

It's the same stuff as this

這和這個一樣，

and the same stuff as this.

也和這個一樣；

But it's not the same stuff; it's different.

但又不完全相同，還是有點不同，

It's thousands of times,

這個硬度大約是幾千倍，

maybe 3,000 times tougher than this.

大約是這個的三千倍硬。

And why? Because the lowly abalone

為什麼？因為這些不起眼的鮑魚，

is able to lay down

只能夠一層一層地

the calcium carbonate crystals in layers,

產生這些碳酸鈣結晶，

making this beautiful, iridescent

製作出這些美麗、

mother of pearl.

璀燦的珍珠母。

Very specialized material

這是很特殊的材料，

that the abalone self-assembles,

由鮑魚自行生成，

millions of abalone,

許多鮑魚一直製造，

all the time, every day, every year.

每天每年製造。

This is pretty incredible stuff.

很了不起的東西。

All the same, what's different?

這些都一樣，有什麼不同？

How the molecules are put together.

分子排列的方式不同。

Now, what does this have to do with energy?

這和能源有什麼關係？

Here's a piece of coal.

這是一塊煤炭，

And I'll suggest that this coal

我猜這塊煤炭

is about as exciting

就和這支粉筆

as this chalk.

一樣有趣。

Now, whether we're talking about fuels

當我們在談論燃料、

or energy carriers,

或是能源的媒介、

or perhaps novel materials for batteries

或是電池和燃料電池

or fuel cells,

的新型材料時，

nature hasn't ever built those perfect materials yet

大自然界裡不一定有這些材料，

because nature didn't need to.

因為大自然不需要這些材料。

Nature didn't need to because, unlike the abalone shell,

大自然之所以不需要這些材料，

the survival of a species didn't depend

因為物種的生存

on building those materials,

並不需要倚賴這些材料，

until maybe now when it might just matter.

不像鮑魚剛好需要殼來保護自己。

So, when we think about the future of energy,

所以，當我們在思考未來的能源時，

imagine

想像一下，

what would it be like

未來的能源會像什麼？

if instead of this,

除了煤炭之外，

we could build the energy equivalent of this

我們是否能製造出替代能源，

just by rearranging the molecules differently.

就只要把分子重新排列一下就好？

And so that is my story.

這就是我要講的。

The oil will never run out.

石油永遠沒有用完的一天，

It's not because we have a lot of it.

並不是因為存量還很多，

It's not because we're going to build a bajillion windmills.

也不是因為我們會建造很多風車，

It's because, well,

那是因為

thousands of years ago,

數千年以前，

people invented ideas --

人們就有了想法，

they had ideas, innovations, technology --

想法激發發明，進而產生科技。

and the Stone Age ended,

石器時代會結束，

not because we ran out of stones.

並不是因為石頭被用光了。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

It's ideas, it's innovation, it's technology

人們的想法、發明和科技，

that will end the age of oil, long before we run out of oil.

會在我們把石油用光之前，替我們終結石油時代。

Thank you very much.

謝謝各位。

(Applause)

(掌聲)