Richard Sears: Planning for the end of oil

Prevoditelj: Davorin Jelačić Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG

For the next few minutes we're going to talk about energy,

Sljedećih nekoliko minuta razgovarat ćemo o energiji.

and it's going to be a bit of a varied talk.

Govor će biti ponešto raznovrstan.

I'll try to spin a story about energy,

Ispričat ću priču o energiji,

and oil's a convenient starting place.

a nafta je prikladna kao početak.

The talk will be broadly about energy,

Govor će biti o energiji u širem smislu,

but oil's a good place to start.

ali dobro je početi s naftom.

And one of the reasons is this is remarkable stuff.

Jedan od razloga za to je što je ona nešto izuzetno.

You take about eight or so carbon atoms,

Uzmete osam atoma ugljika,

about 20 hydrogen atoms,

oko 20 vodikovih atoma,

you put them together in exactly the right way

spojite ih na pravi način

and you get this marvelous liquid:

i dobijete tu čudesnu tekućinu

very energy-dense and very easy to refine

velike energetske gustoće koju je lako preraditi

into a number of very useful products and fuels.

u brojne korisne proizvode i goriva.

It's great stuff.

Nafta je sjajna.

Now, as far as it goes,

Ima mnogo nafte

there's a lot of oil out there in the world.

na svijetu.

Here's my little pocket map

Evo moje džepne karte

of where it's all located.

koja prikazuje sve lokacije.

A bigger one for you to look at.

Veću gledate vi.

But this is it, this is the oil in the world.

Ali to je to. Ovo je svjetska nafta.

Geologists have a pretty good idea of where the oil is.

Geolozi imaju prilično dobru ideju gdje su nalazišta nafte.

This is about 100 trillion gallons

Ima oko 100 bilijuna galona

of crude oil

sirove nafte

still to be developed and produced in the world today.

koju još nismo obradili i proizveli u svijetu.

Now, that's just one story about oil,

To je samo jedna priča o nafti

and we could end it there and say,

i mogli bismo je tu završiti i reći,

"Well, oil's going to last forever

"Pa, nafta će trajati zauvijek

because, well, there's just a lot of it."

jer je jednostavno ima mnogo."

But there's actually more to the story than that.

Ali priča tu ne završava.

Oh, by the way, if you think you're very far from some of this oil,

I, usput, ako mislite da ste jako daleko od nafte,

1000 meters below where you're all sitting

1000 metara dublje od mjesta gdje sjedite

is one of the largest producing oil fields in the world.

nalazi se jedno od najvećih naftnih polja na svijetu.

Come talk to me about it, I'll fill in some of the details if you want.

Obratite mi se u vezi toga. Reći ću vam detalje ako vas zanima.

So, that's one of the stories of oil; there's just a lot of it.

Dakle, to je jedna priča o nafti. Jednostavno je ima puno.

But what about oil? Where is it in the energy system?

Ali što je s naftom? Koje je njeno mjesto u energetskom sustavu?

Here's a little snapshot of 150 years of oil,

Evo malog prikaza 150 godina nafte.

and it's been a dominant part of our energy system

Ona je dominantan element našeg energetskog sustava

for most of those 150 years.

tijekom većeg dijela tih 150 godina.

Now, here's another little secret I'm going to tell you about:

Ima još jedna mala tajna koju ću vam reći.

For the last 25 years,

U posljednjih 25 godina,

oil has been playing less and less of a role

nafta ima sve manju i manju ulogu

in global energy systems.

u svjetskom energetskom sustavu.

There was one kind of peak oil in 1985,

Imali smo naftni vrhunac 1985. godine,

when oil represented 50 percent of global energy supply.

kad je na naftu otpadalo 50 posto svjetske ponude energije.

Now, it's about 35 percent.

Danas to iznosi oko 35 posto.

It's been declining

Smanjuje se

and I believe it will continue to decline.

i vjerujem da će se nastaviti smanjivati.

Gasoline consumption in the U.S. probably peaked in 2007

Potrošnja benzina je u SAD - u vrhunac imala 2007.

and is declining.

i opada.

So oil is playing a less significant role

Znači, uloga nafte je sve manja

every year.

iz godine u godinu.

And so, 25 years ago,

Dakle, prije 25 godina

there was a peak oil;

imali smo vrhunac korištenja nafte

just like, in the 1920s,

kao što smo u 1920-tima,

there was a peak coal;

imali vrhunac korištenja ugljena,

and a hundred years before that,

a stotinu godina prije toga

there was a peak wood.

vrhunac korištenja drveta.

This is a very important picture of the evolution of energy systems.

Ovo je vrlo važna slika evolucije energetskih sustava.

And what's been taking up the slack in the last few decades?

A što kompenzira to smanjenje u posljednjih nekoliko desetljeća?

Well, a lot of natural gas

Pa, puno zemnog plina

and a little bit of nuclear, for starters.

i nešto nuklearne energije, za početak.

And what goes on in the future?

A što će biti u budućnosti?

Well, I think out ahead of us a few decades

Vjerujem da je za nekoliko desetljeća

is peak gas,

pred nama vrhunac korištenja plina,

and beyond that,

a nakon toga

peak renewables.

vrhunac korištenja obnovljivih izvora.

Now, I'll tell you another little, very important

Sada ću vam ispričati još jednu vrlo važnu

story about this picture.

priču u vezi te slike.

Now, I'm not pretending that energy use in total

Ne pokušavam se pretvarati da se ukupno korištenje energije

isn't increasing, it is --

smanjuje, jer se povećava.

that's another part of the story. Come talk to me about it,

To je drugi dio priče. Javite mi se.

we'll fill in some of the details --

Dat ćemo vam detalje.

but there's a very important message here:

No, poruka je vrlo važna.

This is 200 years of history,

Evo 200 godina povijesti.

and for 200 years we've been systematically decarbonizing

Tijekom 200 godina sustavno smo smanjivali udio ugljika

our energy system.

u našem energetskom sustavu.

Energy systems of the world

Energetski sustavi u svijetu

becoming progressively -- year on year,

progresivno, iz godine u godinu,

decade on decade, century on century --

iz desetljeća u desetljeće, iz stoljeća u stoljeće,

becoming less carbon intense.

postaju manje ugljično-intenzivni.

And that continues into the future

I to će se nastaviti u budućnosti

with the renewables that we're developing today,

s obnovljivim izvorima koje danas razvijamo,

reaching maybe 30 percent of primary energy

a čija će upotreba iznositi i do 30 posto primarne energije

by mid century.

do sredine stoljeća.

Now that might be the end of the story --

I to bi mogao biti kraj priče --

Okay, we just replace it all with conventional renewables --

Odlično, samo sve zamijenimo s konvencionalnim obnovljivim izvorima --

but I think, actually, there's more to the story than that.

no, mislim da ni tu nije kraj.

And to tell the next part of the story --

Pričamo sljedeći dio priče --

and this is looking out say 2100 and beyond.

gledamo daleko unaprijed, recimo u godinu 2100. i kasnije.

What is the future

Kakva je budućnost

of truly sustainable, carbon-free energy?

istinski održive energije bez ugljika?

Well, we have to take a little excursion,

Moramo poći na kratak izlet.

and we'll start in central Texas.

Počet ćemo u središnjem Texasu.

Here's a piece of limestone.

Evo komada vapnenca.

I picked it up outside of Marble Falls, Texas.

Pronašao sam ga u blizini Marble Fallsa u Texasu.

It's about 400 million years old.

Star je oko 400 milijuna godina.

And it's just limestone, nothing really special about it.

Običan vapnenac, nema ničeg posebnog u njemu.

Now, here's a piece of chalk.

A ovo je kreda.

I picked this up at MIT. It's a little younger.

Ovo sam dobio na sveučilištu M.I.T. Nešto je mlađa.

And it's different than this limestone, you can see that.

I različita je od vapnenca. Vidite to.

You wouldn't build a building out of this stuff,

Ne biste od ovoga gradili zgrade,

and you wouldn't try to give a lecture and write on the chalkboard with this.

a ne biste držali predavanje i pokušali na ploči pisati s ovim.

Yeah, it's very different -- no, it's not different.

Da, jako različito. Ne, nije različito.

It's not different, it's the same stuff:

Nije različito. To je ista stvar,

calcium carbonate, calcium carbonate.

kalcij karbonat, kalcij karbonat.

What's different is how the molecules are put together.

Ono što je drugačije je način na koji su molekule povezane.

Now, if you think that's kind of neat,

Ako mislite da je to zanimljivo,

the story gets really neat right now.

sada priča postaje zaista zanimljiva.

Off the coast of California comes this:

Ovo se nalazi blizu kalifornijske obale.

It's an abalone shell.

Ovo je kućica morskog puža abalona.

Now, millions of abalone every year

Milijuni abalona svake godine

make this shell.

naprave ovakvu školjku.

Oh, by the way, just in case you weren't already guessing,

O, usput, ako niste već pogodili,

it's calcium carbonate.

ovo je kalcij karbonat.

It's the same stuff as this

To je ista tvar kao ovo

and the same stuff as this.

i kao ovo.

But it's not the same stuff; it's different.

Ali nije isto; drugačije je.

It's thousands of times,

Tisućama je puta,

maybe 3,000 times tougher than this.

možda 3.000 puta čvršća od ovoga.

And why? Because the lowly abalone

Zašto? Zato što je mali abalon

is able to lay down

u stanju polagati

the calcium carbonate crystals in layers,

kristale kalcij karbonata u slojevima,

making this beautiful, iridescent

i proizvesti ovu prelijepu, svjetlucavu

mother of pearl.

majku bisera.

Very specialized material

Vrlo specijaliziran materijal

that the abalone self-assembles,

koji abalon sam sastavlja,

millions of abalone,

milijuni abalona,

all the time, every day, every year.

neprekidno, svakoga dana, svake godine.

This is pretty incredible stuff.

To je nevjerojatno.

All the same, what's different?

Pa ipak, u čemu je razlika?

How the molecules are put together.

U tome kako su molekule povezane.

Now, what does this have to do with energy?

A kakve to veze ima s energijom?

Here's a piece of coal.

Evo komada ugljena.

And I'll suggest that this coal

Ovaj ugljen

is about as exciting

je otprilike onoliko uzbudljiv

as this chalk.

koliko i ova kreda.

Now, whether we're talking about fuels

Govorili mi o gorivu,

or energy carriers,

ili prijenosnicima energije,

or perhaps novel materials for batteries

ili o novim materijalima za baterije

or fuel cells,

ili pogonskim stanicama,

nature hasn't ever built those perfect materials yet

priroda još nije stvorila te savršene materijale,

because nature didn't need to.

jer nije morala.

Nature didn't need to because, unlike the abalone shell,

Nije morala budući da, za razliku od abalon školjke,

the survival of a species didn't depend

opstanak vrsta nije ovisio

on building those materials,

o tim materijalima

until maybe now when it might just matter.

sve do sada, kad bi moglo biti važno.

So, when we think about the future of energy,

Pa kad razmišljamo o budućnosti energije,

imagine

zamislite

what would it be like

kako bi to bilo

if instead of this,

kad bismo, umjesto ovoga,

we could build the energy equivalent of this

mogli stvoriti energetski ekvivalent ovoga,

just by rearranging the molecules differently.

samo preslagivanjem molekula.

And so that is my story.

I to je moja priča.

The oil will never run out.

Nafte nikada neće ponestati.

It's not because we have a lot of it.

Ne zato što je imamo mnogo.

It's not because we're going to build a bajillion windmills.

Ne zato što ćemo podići milijarde vjetrenjača.

It's because, well,

Već zato što su ljudi,

thousands of years ago,

prije više tisuća godina,

people invented ideas --

izumili ideje,

they had ideas, innovations, technology --

imali su ideje, inovacije, tehnologiju.

and the Stone Age ended,

Kameno doba nije završilo

not because we ran out of stones.

zato što je ponestalo kamenja.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

It's ideas, it's innovation, it's technology

Ideje, inovacije, tehnologija

that will end the age of oil, long before we run out of oil.

okončat će eru nafte puno prije nego nam ponestane nafte.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam lijepa.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)