Paul Gilding: The Earth is full

350,731 views ・ 2012-03-01

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Prevodilac: Marija Kovacevic Lektor: Jelena Nedjic
00:15
Let me begin with four words
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Počeo bih sa tri reči,
00:18
that will provide the context for this week,
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koje će obeležiti ovu nedelju,
00:20
four words that will come to define
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tri reči koje će definisati
00:22
this century.
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ovaj vek.
00:24
Here they are:
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A to su:
00:26
The Earth is full.
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Zemlja je puna.
00:29
It's full of us, it's full of our stuff,
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Puna je nas, puna je naših stvari,
00:32
full of our waste, full of our demands.
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puna našeg otpada, puna naših prohteva.
00:35
Yes, we are a brilliant and creative species,
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Da, mi smo briljantna i kreativna vrsta.
00:38
but we've created a little too much stuff --
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ali smo stvorili previše stvari,
00:42
so much that our economy is now bigger
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toliko da je naša ekonomija sada premašila
00:45
than its host, our planet.
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svog domaćina, našu planetu.
00:48
This is not a philosophical statement,
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Ovo nije filozofska misao,
00:50
this is just science
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ovo je prosto nauka
00:52
based in physics,
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zasnovana na fizici,
00:54
chemistry and biology.
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hemiji i biologiji.
00:57
There are many science-based analyses of this,
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Postoji mnogo naučnih analiza
00:59
but they all draw the same conclusion --
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i sve one navode na isti zaključak -
01:02
that we're living beyond our means.
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da živimo izvan naših mogućnosti.
01:05
The eminent scientists of the Global Footprint Network, for example,
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Istaknuti naučnici mreže "Svetksi otisak", na primer,
01:08
calculate that we need about 1.5 Earths
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su izračunali da nam treba oko 1,5 Zemlja
01:11
to sustain this economy.
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da izdrži ovu ekonomiju.
01:14
In other words,
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Drugim rečima,
01:16
to keep operating at our current level,
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da bismo nastavili da funckionišemo na sadašnjem nivou,
01:18
we need 50 percent more Earth than we've got.
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treba nam 50 posto više Zemlje nego što imamo.
01:23
In financial terms,
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U finansijskom smislu,
01:25
this would be like always spending 50 percent more than you earn,
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to bi značilo da uvek trošite 50 posto više nego što zaradite,
01:29
going further into debt every year.
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zadužujući se sve više svake godine.
01:31
But of course, you can't borrow natural resources,
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Ali naravno, ne možete pozajmiti prirodne resurse,
01:34
so we're burning through our capital,
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pa zato iscrpljujemo svoj kapital
01:37
or stealing from the future.
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ili krademo od budućnosti.
01:40
So when I say full, I mean really full --
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Kada kažem puna, mislim stvarno puna -
01:43
well past any margin for error,
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daleko izvan granica greške,
01:45
well past any dispute
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daleko od bilo koje rasprave
01:47
about methodology.
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o metodologiji.
01:51
What this means is our economy is unsustainable.
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Ovo znači da je naša ekonomija neodrživa.
01:54
I'm not saying it's not nice or pleasant
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Ne kažem da nije fina ili prijatna
01:57
or that it's bad for polar bears or forests,
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niti da je loša za polarne medvede ili šume,
01:59
though it certainly is.
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mada to svakako jeste.
02:01
What I'm saying
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Ono što hoću da kažem
02:03
is our approach is simply unsustainable.
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je da je naš pristup jednostavno neodrživ.
02:05
In other words, thanks to those pesky laws of physics,
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Drugim rečima, zahvaljujući tim iritantnim zakonima fizike,
02:08
when things aren't sustainable, they stop.
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kad nešto nije održivo, ono nestane.
02:11
But that's not possible, you might think.
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Pomislili biste da je to nemoguće.
02:13
We can't stop economic growth.
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Ne možemo zaustaviti ekonomski razvoj.
02:15
Because that's what will stop: economic growth.
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Jer to je ono što će se zaustaviti: ekonomski razvoj.
02:18
It will stop because of the end of trade resources.
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Staće zbog nestanka trgovinskih resursa.
02:21
It will stop because of the growing demand of us
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Staće zbog naše sve veće potražnje
02:26
on all the resources, all the capacity,
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za svim resursima, za celokupnim kapacitetom,
02:28
all the systems of the Earth,
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za svim sistemima Zemlje
02:30
which is now having economic damage.
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koji se sad nose sa ekonomskom štetom.
02:35
When we think about economic growth stopping,
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Kada razmišljamo o prestanku ekonomskog razvoja,
02:37
we go, "That's not possible,"
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pomislimo: "To nije moguće",
02:40
because economic growth is so essential to our society
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zato što je ekonomski razvoj toliko važan za naše društvo
02:43
that is is rarely questioned.
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da se retko dovodi u pitanje.
02:46
Although growth has certainly delivered many benefits,
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Mada je razvoj svakako doneo mnogo dobrog,
02:49
it is an idea so essential
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toliko je u osnovi svega,
02:51
that we tend not to understand
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da mi prosto ne shvatamo
02:53
the possibility of it not being around.
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mogućnost da nestane.
02:55
Even though it has delivered many benefits,
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Iako je doneo mnogo toga dobrog,
02:57
it is based on a crazy idea --
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zasnovan je na ludoj zamisli -
03:00
the crazy idea being
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zamisli
03:02
that we can have infinite growth
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da možemo imati beskonačni razvoj
03:04
on a finite planet.
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na planeti koja nije beskonačna.
03:06
And I'm here to tell you the emperor has no clothes.
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Savetujem vam da preispitate svoja uverenja.
03:09
That the crazy idea is just that,
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Ta luda ideja je upravo to,
03:11
it is crazy,
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luda je,
03:13
and with the Earth full, it's game over.
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i pošto je Zemlja puna, to označava kraj igre.
03:15
Come on, you're thinking.
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Ma daj, mislite.
03:17
That's not possible.
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To nije moguće.
03:19
Technology is amazing. People are innovative.
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Tehnologija je neverovatna. Ljudi su inovativni.
03:22
There are so many ways we can improve the way we do things.
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Postoji toliko načina da poboljšamo način na koji delamo.
03:24
We can surely sort this out.
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Sigurno možemo pronaći rešenje.
03:26
That's all true.
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To je tačno.
03:28
Well, it's mostly true.
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Pa, uglavnom je tačno.
03:30
We are certainly amazing,
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Svakako smo neverovatni,
03:32
and we regularly solve complex problems
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i redovno rešavamo složene probleme
03:34
with amazing creativity.
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neverovatnom kreativnošću.
03:36
So if our problem
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Tako da ako bi naš problem
03:38
was to get the human economy down
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bio da smanjimo ljudsku ekonomiju
03:40
from 150 percent to 100 percent of the Earth's capacity,
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sa 150 posto na 100 posto kapaciteta Zemlje,
03:43
we could do that.
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to bismo rešili.
03:45
The problem is we're just warming up
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Problem je što mi tek zagrevamo
03:47
this growth engine.
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pogon ovog rasta.
03:49
We plan to take this highly-stressed economy
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Nameravamo da ovu izuzetno razvijenu ekonomiju
03:52
and make it twice as big
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učinimo duplo većom,
03:55
and then make it four times as big --
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a potom četiri puta većom,
03:57
not in some distant future,
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ne u nekoj dalekoj budućnosti,
04:00
but in less than 40 years,
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već za manje od 40 godina,
04:02
in the life time of most of you.
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što će većina vas doživeti.
04:05
China plans to be there in just 20 years.
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Kina planira da to ostvari ovo za samo 20 godina.
04:09
The only problem with this plan
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Jedini problem u vezi ovog plana
04:12
is that it's not possible.
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je što nije izvodljiv.
04:16
In response, some people argue,
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Kao odgovor na ovo, neki ljudi tvrde,
04:18
but we need growth, we need it to solve poverty.
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da nam je neophodan razvoj, moramo rešiti problem siromaštva.
04:20
We need it to develop technology.
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Moramo da razvijemo tehnologiju.
04:22
We need it to keep social stability.
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Moramo da održimo stabilnost društva.
04:24
I find this argument fascinating,
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Za mene je ovaj argument fascinantan,
04:26
as though we can kind of bend the rules of physics
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jer zvuči kao da možemo da izmenimo zakone fizike
04:29
to suit our needs.
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da odgovaraju našim potrebama.
04:34
It's like the Earth doesn't care what we need.
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Zemlju ne zanima šta je nama potrebno.
04:37
Mother nature doesn't negotiate;
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Majka priroda ne pregovara;
04:39
she just sets rules and describes consequences.
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ona samo određuje pravila i opisuje posledice.
04:42
And these are not esoteric limits.
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Sve ovo nisu ezoterične granice.
04:44
This is about food and water, soil and climate,
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Govorimo o hrani i vodi, zemljištu i klimi,
04:46
the basic practical and economic foundations
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bazičnim praktičnim i ekonomskim osnovama
04:49
of our lives.
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naših života.
04:53
So the idea that we can smoothly transition
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Tako da zamisao da možemo lako da pređemo
04:56
to a highly-efficient,
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u izuzetno efikasnu
04:58
solar-powered, knowledge-based economy
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ekonomiju koja se napaja sunčevom energijom, koja je zasnovana na znanju,
05:00
transformed by science and technology
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koja je oblikovana naukom i tehnologijom,
05:02
so that nine billion people
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tako da devet milijardi ljudi
05:04
can live in 2050
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može da živi 2050.
05:07
a life of abundance and digital downloads
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u izobilju, i obrazuje se na Internetu
05:09
is a delusion.
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je zabluda.
05:12
It's not that it's not possible to feed, clothe and house us all
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Nije nemoguće nahraniti, obući i skućiti sve nas
05:15
and have us live decent lives.
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i obezbediti pristojan život svima.
05:18
It certainly is.
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To je svakako moguće.
05:20
But the idea that we can gently grow there
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Ali zamisao da možemo olako da se množimo,
05:22
with a few minor hiccups
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uz nekoliko manjih problema
05:24
is just wrong,
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je jednostavno pogrešna,
05:26
and it's dangerously wrong,
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i to opasno pogrešna,
05:28
because it means we're not getting ready
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jer ona znači da se ne pripremamo
05:30
for what's really going to happen.
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za ono što će se zaista dogoditi.
05:32
See what happens when you operate a system
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Vidite, ono sto se dešava kada opteretite sistem
05:35
past its limits
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van njegovih mogućnosti
05:37
and then keep on going
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i zatim nastavite to
05:39
at an ever-accelerating rate
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sve većim tempom
05:42
is that the system stops working and breaks down.
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je da sistem prestane da radi i pokvari se.
05:46
And that's what will happen to us.
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To je ono što će se nama dogoditi.
05:53
Many of you will be thinking,
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Mnogi od vas će pomisliti,
05:55
but surely we can still stop this.
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da sigurno još uvek možemo da zaustavimo ovo.
05:57
If it's that bad, we'll react.
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Ako je toliko loše, odreagovaćemo.
06:00
Let's just think through that idea.
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Hajde da samo razmotrimo tu zamisao.
06:02
Now we've had
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Već 50 godina
06:04
50 years of warnings.
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stižu nam upozorenja.
06:06
We've had science proving
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Nauka je dokazivala
06:09
the urgency of change.
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da su promene urgentne.
06:11
We've had economic analysis pointing out
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Ekonomske procene su ukazivale na to
06:13
that, not only can we afford it,
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da ne samo da možemo to da priuštimo,
06:15
it's cheaper to act early.
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nego je i jeftinije da odreagujemo ranije.
06:17
And yet, the reality is
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A ipak u realnosti
06:19
we've done pretty much nothing to change course.
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nismo uradili skoro ništa da promenimo situaciju.
06:22
We're not even slowing down.
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Mi čak ni ne usporavamo.
06:25
Last year on climate, for example,
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Na primer, prošle godine smo bili svedoci najvećeg
06:27
we had the highest global emissions ever.
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globalnog zagađenja usled našeg uticaja na klimu.
06:29
The story on food, on water, on soil, on climate
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Problem hrane, vode, zemljišta i klime
06:32
is all much the same.
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je praktično isti.
06:35
I actually don't say this in despair.
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Ja zapravo ovo ne govorim u očaju.
06:37
I've done my grieving about the loss.
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Prestao sam sa žaljenjem za izgubljenim.
06:39
I accept where we are.
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Prihvatam ovo gde smo sada.
06:41
It is sad,
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Tužno je,
06:43
but it is what it is.
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ali tako je, kako je.
06:45
But it is also time
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Ali je takođe vreme
06:47
that we ended our denial
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da okončamo poricanje
06:49
and recognized
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i shvatimo
06:51
that we're not acting, we're not close to acting
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da ne delamo, da nismo ni blizu delanja
06:54
and we're not going to act
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i nećemo to učiniti
06:56
until this crisis hits the economy.
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dok kriza ne pogodi ekonomiju.
06:58
And that's why the end of growth
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Zato je kraj razvoja
07:00
is the central issue
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najvažnije pitanje
07:02
and the event that we need to get ready for.
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i događaj za koji treba da se pripremimo.
07:06
So when does this transition begin?
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Dakle, kada će početi ova promena?
07:08
When does this breakdown begin?
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Kada će ovaj slom početi?
07:10
In my view, it is well underway.
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Mislim da je već počelo.
07:13
I know most people don't see it that way.
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Znam da većina ljudi to ne vidi tako.
07:15
We tend to look at the world,
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Skloni smo da posmatramo svet,
07:17
not as the integrated system that it is,
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ne kao integrisani sitem što on jeste,
07:19
but as a series of individual issues.
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već kao niz pojedinačnih problema.
07:21
We see the Occupy protests,
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Vidimo proteste pokreta "Occupy",
07:24
we see spiraling debt crises,
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vidimo rastuću krizu zbog dugova,
07:26
we see growing inequality,
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vidimo sve veće nejednakosti,
07:28
we see money's influence on politics,
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vidimo uticaj novca na politiku,
07:30
we see resource constraint, food and oil prices.
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vidimo ograničenje resursa, cene hrane i nafte.
07:33
But we see, mistakenly, each of these issues
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Ali mi posmatramo svaki od ovih problema
07:35
as individual problems to be solved.
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kao izdvojen fenomen koji treba rešiti.
07:39
In fact, it's the system
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U stvari, sistem
07:41
in the painful process of breaking down --
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prolazi kroz bolni proces slamanja,
07:44
our system, of debt-fueled economic growth,
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naš sistem, ispunjen dugovima eknomoskog razvoja,
07:47
of ineffective democracy,
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neefektivne demokratije,
07:49
of overloading planet Earth,
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preopterećivanja planete Zemlje,
07:51
is eating itself alive.
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sam sebe izjeda.
07:56
I could give you countless studies
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Mogao bih da vam navedem brojne
07:57
and evidence to prove this,
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studije i dokaze koji potvrđuju ovo,
08:00
but I won't because, if you want to see it,
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ali neću jer, ako želite to da vidite,
08:02
that evidence is all around you.
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dokazi su svuda oko vas.
08:05
I want to talk to you about fear.
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Želim da razgovaram sa vama o strahu.
08:08
I want to do so because, in my view,
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Želim to jer mi se čini da je
08:11
the most important issue we face
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najvažniji fenomen sa kojim se suočavamo
08:16
is how we respond
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baš kako odgovaramo
08:18
to this question.
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na ovo pitanje.
08:20
The crisis is now inevitable.
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Kriza je sada neizbežna.
08:23
This issue is, how will we react?
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Pitanje je, kako ćemo odreagovati?
08:27
Of course, we can't know what will happen.
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Naravno, ne možemo znati šta će se dogoditi.
08:30
The future is inherently uncertain.
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Budućnost je sama po sebi neizvesna.
08:32
But let's just think through what the science is telling us
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Ali hajde da samo razmislimo o tome šta nam nauka govori
08:35
is likely to happen.
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da će se verovatno desiti.
08:38
Imagine our economy
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Zamislite našu ekonomiju
08:41
when the carbon bubble bursts,
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kada balon ugljenika pukne,
08:43
when the financial markets recognize
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kada finansijska tržišta to shvate,
08:45
that, to have any hope
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zamislite bilo kakvu nadu
08:47
of preventing the climate spiraling out of control,
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da ćemo sprečiti otimanje klimatskih promena našoj kontroli,
08:50
the oil and coal industries are finished.
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da su idustrije nafte i uglja propale.
08:54
Imagine China, India and Pakistan going to war
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Zamislite Kinu, Indiju i Pakistan kako idu u rat
08:57
as climate impacts
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jer klimatske promene
08:59
generate conflict over food and water.
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rezultiraju u sukobima za hranu i piće.
09:03
Imagine the Middle East without oil income,
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Zamislite Bliski istok bez prihoda od nafte,
09:06
but with collapsing governments.
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već sa vladama koje se ruše.
09:08
Imagine our highly-tuned, just-in-time food industry
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Zamislite našu savršeno funkcionalnu idustriju hrane i blagovremene isporuke,
09:12
and our highly-stressed agricultural system failing
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i naš preopterećeni poljoprivredni sistem kako otkazuju,
09:15
and supermarket shelves emptying.
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i zamislite prazne police u supermarketu.
09:19
Imagine 30 percent unemployment in America
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Zamislite nezaposlenost od 30 posto u Americi,
09:22
as the global economy is gripped
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a globalnu ekonomiju u grču
09:24
by fear and uncertainty.
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zbog straha i neizvesnosti.
09:26
Now imagine what that means for you,
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Sad zamislite šta to znači za vas,
09:28
your family, your friends,
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vašu porodicu, vaše prijatelje,
09:31
your personal financial security.
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vašu ličnu finansijsku sigurnost.
09:33
Imagine what it means
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Zamislite šta znači
09:35
for your personal security
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za vašu ličnu sigurnost
09:37
as a heavily armed civilian population
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to što teško naoružana građanska populacija
09:39
gets angrier and angrier
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postaje sve više frustrirana
09:41
about why this was allowed to happen.
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zbog toga zašto je dozvoljeno da se ovo desi.
09:45
Imagine what you'll tell your children
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Zamislite šta ćete reći vašoj deci
09:47
when they ask you,
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kada vas pitaju,
09:49
"So, in 2012, Mom and Dad,
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"Pa, mama i tata,
09:51
what was it like
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kako je to bilo 2012.
09:53
when you'd had the hottest decade on record
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kada ste se tri decenije za redom suočavali
09:56
for the third decade in a row,
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sa najtoplijom decenijom ikada zabeleženom,
09:58
when every scientific body in the world was saying
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kada je svako naučno telo na svetu upozoravalo
10:01
you've got a major problem,
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da imate veliki problem,
10:04
when the oceans were acidifying,
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kada su okeani postajali kiseli,
10:06
when oil and food prices were spiking,
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kada su cene ulja i hrane rasle,
10:08
when they were rioting in the streets of London
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kada su pravili nerede po ulicama Londona
10:11
and occupying Wall Street?
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i osvajali Vol Strit?
10:13
When the system was so clearly breaking down, Mom and Dad,
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Kada se sistem tako očigledno urušavao, mama i tata,
10:16
what did you do, what were you thinking?"
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šta ste vi uradili, šta ste mislili?"
10:21
So how do you feel
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Pa kako se osećate
10:24
when the lights go out
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sa tom tamom na slici
10:26
on the global economy in your mind,
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globalne ekonomije u vašem umu,
10:30
when your assumptions about the future
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kada vaše pretpostavke o budućnosti
10:33
fade away
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izblede
10:35
and something very different emerges?
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i nešto potpuno drugačije izađe na površinu?
10:38
Just take a moment
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Samo zastanite na trenutak,
10:40
and take a breath
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udahnite,
10:42
and think, what do you feel
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i razmislite, šta osećate
10:45
at this point?
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u ovom momentu?
10:51
Perhaps denial.
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Možda poricanje.
10:54
Perhaps anger.
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Možda bes.
10:57
Maybe fear.
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Možda strah.
11:02
Of course, we can't know what's going to happen
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Naravno, ne možemo znati šta će se dogoditi
11:05
and we have to live with uncertainty.
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i moramo da živimo sa neizvesnošću.
11:08
But when we think about the kind of possibilities I paint,
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Ali kada razmislimo o mogućnostima koje ja zamišljam,
11:12
we should feel a bit of fear.
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trebalo bi malo da se uplašimo.
11:16
We are in danger, all of us,
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U opasnosti smo svi mi,
11:19
and we've evolved to respond to danger with fear
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a naučili smo da na opasnost odreagujemo strahom
11:22
to motivate a powerful response,
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da bismo izazvali snažnu reakciju,
11:26
to help us bravely face a threat.
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koja će nam pomoći da se hrabro suočimo sa pretnjom.
11:29
But this time it's not a tiger at the cave mouth.
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Ali ovog puta to nije tigar na ulasku u pećinu.
11:32
You can't see the danger at your door.
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Ne možete videti opasnost ispred vaših vrata.
11:35
But if you look,
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Ali ako pogledate,
11:37
you can see it at the door of your civilization.
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možete je videti pred vratima vaše civilizacije.
11:41
That's why we need to feel our response now while the lights are still on,
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Zato bi trebalo da shvatimo našu odgovornost sada dok smo još pribrani,
11:44
because if we wait until the crisis takes hold,
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jer ako budemo čeklali da kriza uzme maha,
11:47
we may panic and hide.
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možda ćemo se uspaničiti i sakriti.
11:49
If we feel it now and think it through,
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Ako je shvatimo sada i dobro razmislimo,
11:51
we will realize we have nothing to fear
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shvatićemo da nemamo čega da se plašimo
11:53
but fear itself.
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osim samog straha.
11:58
Yes, things will get ugly, and it will happen soon --
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Da, biće gadno, i uskoro će se desiti -
12:01
certainly in our lifetime --
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svakako u našem životnom veku -
12:03
but we are more than capable
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ali mi smo i više nego sposobni
12:05
of getting through everything that's coming.
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da prebrodimo sve što dolazi.
12:08
You see, those people that have faith
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Vidite, oni ljudi koji veruju
12:11
that humans can solve any problem,
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da ljudi mogu da reše svaki problem,
12:14
that technology is limitless, that markets can be a force for good,
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da tehnologija nema ograničenja, da tržišta mogu biti dobre sile,
12:17
are in fact right.
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su zapravo u pravu.
12:19
The only thing they're missing
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Jedino što ne vide
12:21
is that it takes a good crisis to get us going.
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jeste to da je potrebna velika kriza da nas pokrene.
12:24
When we feel fear and we fear loss
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Kada osetimo strah i kad se uplašimo gubitka
12:27
we are capable of quite extraordinary things.
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sposobni smo za prilično neverovatne stvari.
12:30
Think about war.
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Razmislite o ratovima.
12:33
After the bombing of Pearl Harbor, it just took four days
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Nakon bombardovanja Perl Harbura, trebalo je samo četiri dana
12:36
for the government to ban the production of civilian cars
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da vlada zabrani proizvodnju civilnih automobila
12:38
and to redirect the auto industry,
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i da preusmeri auto-industriju,
12:40
and from there to rationing of food and energy.
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a potom reguliše potrošnju hrane i energije.
12:44
Think about how a company responds to a bankruptcy threat
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Razmislite o tome kako neka kompanija reaguje kad joj preti bankrotiranje
12:47
and how a change that seemed impossible just gets done.
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i kako se promena koja deluje nemoguće jednostavno izvrši.
12:50
Think about how an individual responds
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Razmislite o tome kako neki pojedinac reaguje
12:52
to a diagnosis of a life-threatening illness
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na dijagnozu bolesti koja mu može ugroziti život
12:55
and how lifestyle changes
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i kako promene načina života
12:57
that previously were just too difficult
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koje su ranije bile preteške
13:00
suddenly become relatively easy.
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odjednom postaju relativno lake.
13:04
We are smart, in fact, we really are quite amazing,
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Mi smo pametni, u stvari, prilično smo neverovatni,
13:07
but we do love a good crisis.
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ali zaista volimo velike krize.
13:09
And the good news, this one's a monster.
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Dobra vest je da je ova monstruozna.
13:11
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
13:13
Sure, if we get it wrong,
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Naravno, ako pogrešimo,
13:15
we could face the end of this civilization,
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možemo doživeti kraj ove civilizacije,
13:17
but if we get it right,
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ali ako ispravno postupimo,
13:19
it could be the beginning of civilization instead.
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umesto toga ovo može biti početak civilizacije.
13:22
And how cool would it be
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Kako bi sjajno bilo
13:24
to tell your grandchildren that you were part of that?
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reći svojim unucima da ste bili deo toga?
13:29
There's certainly no technical or economic barrier in the way.
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Svakako ne postoji nikakva tehnička niti ekonomska prepreka na putu.
13:34
Scientists like James Hansen tell us
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Naučnici poput Džejmsa Hansena nam govore
13:36
we may need to eliminate net CO2 emissions from the economy
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da bi možda trebalo izbaciti emitovanje ugljen-dioksida iz ekonomije
13:39
in just a few decades.
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u roku od samo nekoliko decenija.
13:41
I wanted to know what that would take,
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Želeo sam da znam šta bi bilo potrebno,
13:43
so I worked with professor Jorgen Randers from Norway
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pa sam radio sa profesorom Jorgenom Rendersom iz Norveške
13:46
to find the answer.
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da bih došao do odgovora.
13:48
We developed a plan called "The One Degree War Plan" --
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Razvili smo plan koji smo nazvali "Ratni plan prvog stepena" -
13:52
so named because of the level of mobilization and focus required.
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tako nazvan zbog nivoa mobilizacije i potrebnog fokusa.
13:56
To my surprise,
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Na moje iznenađenje,
13:58
eliminating net CO2 emissions from the economy in just 20 years
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uklanjanje emitovanja ugljen-dioksida iz ekonomije u roku od samo 20 godina
14:01
is actually pretty easy and pretty cheap,
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ja zapravo prilično jednostavno i prilično jeftino,
14:04
not very cheap,
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ne izuzetno jeftino,
14:06
but certainly less than the cost of a collapsing civilization.
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ali svakako manje nego što bi koštao propast civilizacije.
14:09
We didn't calculate that precisely,
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Nismo to precizno izračunali,
14:11
but we understand that's very expensive.
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ali shvatamo da je to vrlo skupo.
14:14
You can read the details,
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Možete pročitati o detaljima,
14:16
but in summary, we can transform our economy.
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ali ukratko, možemo promeniti našu ekonomiju.
14:18
We can do it with proven technology.
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Možemo to da uradimo koristeći proverenu tehnologiju.
14:20
We can do it at an affordable cost.
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Možemo to da uradimo po pristupačnoj ceni.
14:22
We can do it with existing political structures.
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Možemo to da uradimo pomoću postojećih političkih struktura.
14:24
The only thing we need to change
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Jedino treba da promenimo
14:26
is how we think and how we feel.
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kako razmišljamo i kako se osećamo.
14:29
And this is where you come in.
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A tu vi stupate na scenu.
14:32
When we think about the future I paint,
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Kada razmišljamo o budućnosti koju ja zamišljam,
14:34
of course we should feel a bit of fear.
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naravno da treba da osećamo neku dozu straha.
14:36
But fear can be paralyzing or motivating.
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Ali strah može da paralizuje ili da motiviše.
14:39
We need to accept the fear and then we need to act.
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Treba da prihvatimo strah i potom treba da delamo.
14:42
We need to act
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Treba da delamo
14:44
like the future depends on it.
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kao da budućnost zavisi od toga.
14:46
We need to act like we only have one planet.
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Moramo da delamo kao da imamo samo jednu planetu.
14:50
We can do this.
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Mi možemo ovo.
14:52
I know the free market fundamentalists will tell you
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Znam da će vam fundamentalisti slobodnog tržišta reći
14:55
that more growth, more stuff and nine billion people going shopping
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da su veći razvoj, više stvari i devet milijardi ljudi koji idu u kupovinu
14:58
is the best we can do.
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je najbolje što možemo da uradimo.
15:00
They're wrong.
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Oni greše.
15:02
We can be more,
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Mi možemo više,
15:04
we can be much more.
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možemo mnogo više.
15:06
We have achieved remarkable things
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Postigli smo neverovatne stvari
15:09
since working out how to grow food some 10,000 years ago.
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od kako smo shvatili kako da gajimo hranu pre nekih 10.000 godina.
15:11
We've built a powerful foundation
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Sagradili smo moćnu bazu
15:14
of science, knowledge and technology --
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nauke, znanja i tehnologije -
15:16
more than enough to build a society
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više nego dovoljnu da izgradi društvo
15:18
where nine billion people
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gde će devet milijardi ljudi
15:20
can lead decent, meaningful and satisfying lives.
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moći da živi pristojnim, smislenim i zadovoljavajućim životima.
15:22
The Earth can support that
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Zemlja to može da izdrži
15:24
if we choose the right path.
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ako odaberemo pravi put.
15:28
We can choose this moment of crisis
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Možemo da izaberemo ovaj trenutak krize
15:30
to ask and answer the big questions of society's evolution --
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da postavimo i odgovorimo na velika pitanja razvoja društva -
15:33
like, what do we want to be when we grow up,
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kao što su, šta želimo da budemo kad porastemo,
15:36
when we move past this bumbling adolescence
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kada prerastemo ovu zbunjujuću adolescenciju
15:39
where we think there are no limits
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gde mislimo da granice ne postoje
15:41
and suffer delusions of immortality?
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i patimo od zabluda o besmrtnosti?
15:44
Well it's time to grow up,
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E pa vreme je da odrastemo,
15:46
to be wiser, to be calmer,
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da budemo mudriji, smireniji,
15:48
to be more considered.
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da budemo uviđajniji.
15:50
Like generations before us,
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Poput generacija pre nas,
15:52
we'll be growing up in war --
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odrastaćemo u ratu -
15:54
not a war between civilizations,
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ne ratu civilizacija,
15:56
but a war for civilization,
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već ratu za civilizaciju,
15:58
for the extraordinary opportunity
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za neverovatnu šansu
16:00
to build a society
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da izgradimo
16:02
which is stronger and happier
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jače i srećnije društvo
16:04
and plans on staying around
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koje namerava da se zadrži ovde
16:06
into middle age.
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do svog srednjeg doba.
16:09
We can choose life over fear.
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Možemo da izaberemo život umesto straha.
16:11
We can do what we need to do,
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Možemo da uradimo ono što moramo,
16:15
but it will take every entrepreneur,
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ali za to će biti potreban svaki preduzetnik,
16:17
every artist,
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svaki umetnik,
16:19
every scientist, every communicator,
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svaki naučnik, svaki govornik,
16:21
every mother, every father, every child,
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svaka majka, svaki otac, svako dete,
16:24
every one of us.
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svako od nas.
16:27
This could be our finest hour.
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Ovo može biti naš uzvišeni čas.
16:30
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
16:32
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)

Original video on YouTube.com
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