Paul Gilding: The Earth is full

譯者: 俊偉 盧 審譯者: Joan Liu

Let me begin with four words

我想用四個字

that will provide the context for this week,

作為本週演說的開場白

four words that will come to define

這四個字可以

this century.

為這個世紀下定義

Here they are:

這四個字就是：

The Earth is full.

地球滿了

It's full of us, it's full of our stuff,

地球住滿人類、堆滿我們的東西

full of our waste, full of our demands.

堆滿垃圾、充斥著需求

Yes, we are a brilliant and creative species,

沒錯，我們是聰明且有創造力的物種

but we've created a little too much stuff --

不過我們創造的東西有點太多

so much that our economy is now bigger

多到我們的經濟體已經超過

than its host, our planet.

地球所能負荷的程度

This is not a philosophical statement,

這不是哲學的說法

this is just science

這是基於物理學

based in physics,

化學

chemistry and biology.

以及生物學的科學

There are many science-based analyses of this,

這方面的科學分析很多

but they all draw the same conclusion --

不過結論都一致：

that we're living beyond our means.

我們過著入不敷出的生活

The eminent scientists of the Global Footprint Network, for example,

以Global Footprint Network的頂尖科學家為例

calculate that we need about 1.5 Earths

他們計算出我們需要1.5顆地球

to sustain this economy.

才能支撐這樣的經濟體

In other words,

換句話說

to keep operating at our current level,

為了保持目前運作的程度

we need 50 percent more Earth than we've got.

我們需要額外的半顆地球才夠

In financial terms,

用經濟學的說法就是

this would be like always spending 50 percent more than you earn,

你所花的錢比賺的錢多百分之50

going further into debt every year.

每年逐漸累積負債

But of course, you can't borrow natural resources,

當然，自然資源沒辦法用借的

so we're burning through our capital,

所以我們正在啃蝕老本

or stealing from the future.

或者說偷取未來的資源

So when I say full, I mean really full --

所以當我說地球滿了，我的意思是真的滿了

well past any margin for error,

滿到容不下任何錯誤

well past any dispute

滿到無法用方法論

about methodology.

來解釋

What this means is our economy is unsustainable.

這表示我們的經濟體已經支撐不下去了

I'm not saying it's not nice or pleasant

我並不是說這樣子對北極熊

or that it's bad for polar bears or forests,

或者對森林不好

though it certainly is.

雖然目前是這樣子

What I'm saying

我的意思是

is our approach is simply unsustainable.

我們的做法根本不是永續經營之道

In other words, thanks to those pesky laws of physics,

也就是說，因為有這些囉嗦的物理定律

when things aren't sustainable, they stop.

當物體無法持續運作時就會停下來

But that's not possible, you might think.

可是各位也許會認為不可能

We can't stop economic growth.

我們無法停止經濟成長

Because that's what will stop: economic growth.

因為停下來的會是：經濟成長

It will stop because of the end of trade resources.

當貿易資源枯竭就會停止

It will stop because of the growing demand of us

因為我們對地球的資源、產能

on all the resources, all the capacity,

以及整個系統的需求日益增加

all the systems of the Earth,

最終將會停止

which is now having economic damage.

目前已經對經濟造成損害了

When we think about economic growth stopping,

當我們思考經濟成長停止時

we go, "That's not possible,"

我們總覺得：「不可能的」

because economic growth is so essential to our society

因為經濟成長對我們的社會非常重要

that is is rarely questioned.

這個部分很少人質疑過

Although growth has certainly delivered many benefits,

雖然經濟成長帶來很多好處

it is an idea so essential

但因為經濟成長至關重要

that we tend not to understand

所以我們根本不想知道

the possibility of it not being around.

經濟成長停止的可能性

Even though it has delivered many benefits,

雖然經濟成長帶來了很多好處

it is based on a crazy idea --

但卻是基於一種瘋狂的想法：

the crazy idea being

這種想法就是

that we can have infinite growth

在有限的星球上

on a finite planet.

我們可以擁有無限的經濟成長

And I'm here to tell you the emperor has no clothes.

我現在站出來向各位說明真相

That the crazy idea is just that,

這瘋狂的想法簡直是

it is crazy,

簡直太瘋狂了

and with the Earth full, it's game over.

當地球塞滿時，大家都玩完了

Come on, you're thinking.

各位會想

That's not possible.

根本不可能

Technology is amazing. People are innovative.

科技很神奇，人類善於創造

There are so many ways we can improve the way we do things.

有很多的方法可以改善當前我們做事的方法

We can surely sort this out.

我們可以解決這些問題

That's all true.

真的就是這樣

Well, it's mostly true.

呃，大部分都是這樣

We are certainly amazing,

我們當然很厲害

and we regularly solve complex problems

我們運用神奇的創造力

with amazing creativity.

總能解決複雜的問題

So if our problem

假如我們的問題是

was to get the human economy down

縮限我們的經濟體，

from 150 percent to 100 percent of the Earth's capacity,

從地球負荷上限的150%降到100%

we could do that.

我們可以做到的

The problem is we're just warming up

問題是我們才剛發動

this growth engine.

經濟成長的引擎

We plan to take this highly-stressed economy

我們打算把這高壓的經濟體

and make it twice as big

擴展到兩倍大

and then make it four times as big --

然後再變成四倍大

not in some distant future,

我說的不是遙遠的未來

but in less than 40 years,

而是40年內要完成

in the life time of most of you.

在座大部分人的有生之年內

China plans to be there in just 20 years.

中國計畫用20年來完成

The only problem with this plan

這個計畫的唯一問題

is that it's not possible.

並不是做不到

In response, some people argue,

有些人對此提出主張

but we need growth, we need it to solve poverty.

我們需要經濟成長以解決貧困、

We need it to develop technology.

研發科技、

We need it to keep social stability.

維持社會安定

I find this argument fascinating,

我發現這樣的論點太過美好

as though we can kind of bend the rules of physics

好像我們可以根據我們的需求

to suit our needs.

改變物理原則

It's like the Earth doesn't care what we need.

好像地球根本不在乎我們的需求

Mother nature doesn't negotiate;

大自然不會討價還價

she just sets rules and describes consequences.

大自然只立定原則和敘述結果

And these are not esoteric limits.

我說的不是深奧難懂的限制

This is about food and water, soil and climate,

而是食物、水、土地和氣候

the basic practical and economic foundations

這些關係到我們生活的

of our lives.

實際經濟基礎

So the idea that we can smoothly transition

假如我們認為我們能夠平順地

to a highly-efficient,

進入到一個高效能，

solar-powered, knowledge-based economy

以太陽能和知識為基礎的經濟體，

transformed by science and technology

以科學和科技帶動改變，

so that nine billion people

好讓2050年居住在地球上的

can live in 2050

90億人口

a life of abundance and digital downloads

過著富足和數位化的生活

is a delusion.

根本是癡人說夢話

It's not that it's not possible to feed, clothe and house us all

我們並不是沒辦法吃飽、穿暖、住好

and have us live decent lives.

並且過著不錯的生活

It certainly is.

我們可以的

But the idea that we can gently grow there

只是想要用些許的代價

with a few minor hiccups

轉變到那樣子

is just wrong,

根本是不可能的

and it's dangerously wrong,

而且是錯得離譜

because it means we're not getting ready

因為這表示我們還沒準備好

for what's really going to happen.

面對未來會發生的事

See what happens when you operate a system

當你操作一部機器

past its limits

已超過運轉上限時

and then keep on going

如果持續加速

at an ever-accelerating rate

讓機器繼續運轉

is that the system stops working and breaks down.

最後整部機器就會停擺和故障

And that's what will happen to us.

這就是我們未來會遇到的事

Many of you will be thinking,

各位或許會開始思考

but surely we can still stop this.

當然我們可以停止這一切

If it's that bad, we'll react.

如果後果真的這麼嚴重，我們會採取行動的

Let's just think through that idea.

我們仔細想想

Now we've had

現在我們有

50 years of warnings.

50年的預警期

We've had science proving

有科學證明

the urgency of change.

改革的迫切性

We've had economic analysis pointing out

有經濟分析指出

that, not only can we afford it,

假如及早因應，不只來得及

it's cheaper to act early.

而且代價會比較小

And yet, the reality is

然而，實際情況是

we've done pretty much nothing to change course.

所們對改革的實際作為很少

We're not even slowing down.

我們根本沒有慢下來

Last year on climate, for example,

以去年的氣候為例

we had the highest global emissions ever.

全球的碳排放量創新高

The story on food, on water, on soil, on climate

食物、飲水、土地、氣候方面的問題

is all much the same.

仍舊一樣

I actually don't say this in despair.

我這樣說並不是感到絕望

I've done my grieving about the loss.

我為此感到哀悼

I accept where we are.

我接受當前的處境

It is sad,

實在讓人難過

but it is what it is.

不過目前的處境的確如此

But it is also time

不過現在也是

that we ended our denial

坦誠面對的時刻

and recognized

並且承認

that we're not acting, we're not close to acting

我們根本沒有採取行動

and we're not going to act

也不打算有所動作

until this crisis hits the economy.

直到危機重創經濟才願意行動

And that's why the end of growth

這就是為什麼經濟成長停止

is the central issue

是最重要的議題

and the event that we need to get ready for.

也是我們必須準備面臨的事件

So when does this transition begin?

那麼，轉變什麼時候開始？

When does this breakdown begin?

什麼時候開始崩盤？

In my view, it is well underway.

在我看來，正在進行中

I know most people don't see it that way.

我知道多數人不這麼認為

We tend to look at the world,

我們總習慣把這世界的各種問題

not as the integrated system that it is,

分開各別看待

but as a series of individual issues.

而不是以相互作用的系統看待

We see the Occupy protests,

我們目睹占領抗議

we see spiraling debt crises,

我們看到日益惡化的債務危機

we see growing inequality,

我們看到貧富差距擴大

we see money's influence on politics,

我們看到金錢左右政策

we see resource constraint, food and oil prices.

我們看到資源限制，食物和油價問題

But we see, mistakenly, each of these issues

我們也錯把每個議題

as individual problems to be solved.

當作個別的問題去解決

In fact, it's the system

事實上，整個系統

in the painful process of breaking down --

正在痛苦中日漸崩解

our system, of debt-fueled economic growth,

我們的系統，這個由債務堆起的經濟成長、

of ineffective democracy,

無能的民主、

of overloading planet Earth,

過度負載的地球

is eating itself alive.

正在自我吞噬

I could give you countless studies

有非常多的研究和證據可以證明這點

and evidence to prove this,

我可以拿給各位看

but I won't because, if you want to see it,

不過我不會拿給各位看，如果想看的話

that evidence is all around you.

周遭到處都有證據

I want to talk to you about fear.

我想跟各位談談恐懼

I want to do so because, in my view,

之所以想談是因為在我看來

the most important issue we face

我們面臨的最重要議題

is how we respond

是如何應對

to this question.

這個問題

The crisis is now inevitable.

危機已經無法避免

This issue is, how will we react?

這個議題就是，我們要如何應對？

Of course, we can't know what will happen.

當然，我們無法預知未來的事

The future is inherently uncertain.

未來總是不確定的

But let's just think through what the science is telling us

不過我們可以好好的思考科學透露給我們

is likely to happen.

未來可能發生的事

Imagine our economy

想像當承碳泡沫化的時候，

when the carbon bubble bursts,

當經濟市場發現

when the financial markets recognize

為了保有一絲希望

that, to have any hope

或者防止氣候繼續惡化

of preventing the climate spiraling out of control,

石油和煤炭工業都玩完了的時候

the oil and coal industries are finished.

我們的經濟會變成什麼情況？

Imagine China, India and Pakistan going to war

想像中國、印度和巴基斯坦

as climate impacts

因為氣候衝擊造成爭奪食物和水源

generate conflict over food and water.

進而引發戰爭

Imagine the Middle East without oil income,

想像中東國家失去原油收入

but with collapsing governments.

但卻存在著敗壞的政府

Imagine our highly-tuned, just-in-time food industry

想像高度控制、即時供應的食品產業

and our highly-stressed agricultural system failing

還有高度密集的農業崩解

and supermarket shelves emptying.

以及超市空蕩蕩的貨架

Imagine 30 percent unemployment in America

想像當全球經濟

as the global economy is gripped

因為恐懼和不確定感陷入緊張

by fear and uncertainty.

造成美國30%的失業率

Now imagine what that means for you,

想像這對你、你的家人、你的朋友

your family, your friends,

還有你的經濟安全

your personal financial security.

會有什麼影響

Imagine what it means

想像當自我武裝的市民

for your personal security

質疑為什麼會發生這些事情

as a heavily armed civilian population

而變得怒火越來越大的時候

gets angrier and angrier

會對你的人身安全

about why this was allowed to happen.

造成什麼影響

Imagine what you'll tell your children

想像當你的孩子問：

when they ask you,

「爸爸媽媽，在2012年的時候，

"So, in 2012, Mom and Dad,

當你們在炎熱的三十年

what was it like

遇上史最熱的十年

when you'd had the hottest decade on record

那是什麼樣的感覺，

for the third decade in a row,

當全世界的科學機構都說

when every scientific body in the world was saying

問題很嚴重的時候，

you've got a major problem,

當海洋酸化時，

when the oceans were acidifying,

當油價和食物價格飆升的時候，

when oil and food prices were spiking,

當倫敦街頭發生暴動、

when they were rioting in the streets of London

群眾占領華爾街時，

and occupying Wall Street?

當整個系統很明顯的在崩解時，

When the system was so clearly breaking down, Mom and Dad,

你們那時候在幹嘛、在想什麼？」

what did you do, what were you thinking?"

這時各位要怎麼跟孩子講？

So how do you feel

當全球經濟

when the lights go out

榮景不再時，

on the global economy in your mind,

當你對未來

when your assumptions about the future

不再企盼時，

fade away

而且奇怪的事情發生了，

and something very different emerges?

各位心裡會是什麼感受？

Just take a moment

花一點點時間想一下，

and take a breath

深呼吸一下，

and think, what do you feel

在這時候

at this point?

各位有何感受？

Perhaps denial.

也許不願承認

Perhaps anger.

也許感到生氣

Maybe fear.

或許覺得恐懼

Of course, we can't know what's going to happen

當然，我們無法預知將來會發生什麼事

and we have to live with uncertainty.

而且要在不確定感中過生活

But when we think about the kind of possibilities I paint,

不過當我們想一想剛剛我敘述的各種可能性時

we should feel a bit of fear.

我們應當多少感到恐懼

We are in danger, all of us,

我們正身處危險之中

and we've evolved to respond to danger with fear

我們歷經演化，面對危險時會感到恐懼

to motivate a powerful response,

以刺激自己作出更大的回應

to help us bravely face a threat.

幫助我們勇敢的面對威脅

But this time it's not a tiger at the cave mouth.

不過這次不像老虎來到居住洞穴的洞口

You can't see the danger at your door.

這次在門口看不到危險

But if you look,

不過只要仔細看

you can see it at the door of your civilization.

就可以在文明的大道上看見危險

That's why we need to feel our response now while the lights are still on,

這就是為什麼要趁著還有一絲希望時，去感受內心的回應

because if we wait until the crisis takes hold,

因為如果等到危機擴大時

we may panic and hide.

我們可能會很痛苦，想要躲起來

If we feel it now and think it through,

如果我們現在就去感受並加以思考

we will realize we have nothing to fear

就會發現除了恐懼本身以外

but fear itself.

沒有什麼事情值得感到恐懼

Yes, things will get ugly, and it will happen soon --

沒錯，情況會變得很糟，而且很快就會發生

certainly in our lifetime --

鐵定在有生之年內

but we are more than capable

不過我們一定有能力

of getting through everything that's coming.

渡過未來即將發生的事

You see, those people that have faith

我們看到有些人

that humans can solve any problem,

對人類解決問題的能力很有信心，

that technology is limitless, that markets can be a force for good,

認為科技有無限的可能，認為市場可以成為正向的力量

are in fact right.

他們的想法都沒錯

The only thing they're missing

只是他們忽略了一件事

is that it takes a good crisis to get us going.

我們要在大難臨頭的時候才會這樣做

When we feel fear and we fear loss

當我們感到恐懼，害怕失敗時

we are capable of quite extraordinary things.

我們有能力創造非凡的事蹟

Think about war.

就拿戰爭來說

After the bombing of Pearl Harbor, it just took four days

從珍珠港事變後，才四天的時間

for the government to ban the production of civilian cars

政府就下令禁止生產民用車

and to redirect the auto industry,

並改變汽車工業的導向

and from there to rationing of food and energy.

以及實施食物和能源配給

Think about how a company responds to a bankruptcy threat

想想一家公司會如何應對破產的危機

and how a change that seemed impossible just gets done.

以及如何完成看似不可能的改革

Think about how an individual responds

想想一個人會如何應對

to a diagnosis of a life-threatening illness

危及生命的疾病

and how lifestyle changes

並且改變生活模式

that previously were just too difficult

過去覺得很難改變

suddenly become relatively easy.

突然變得很簡單

We are smart, in fact, we really are quite amazing,

我們很聰明，真的，我們很厲害

but we do love a good crisis.

不過我們喜歡大型的危機

And the good news, this one's a monster.

好消息是，這次的危機像怪獸一樣大

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Sure, if we get it wrong,

當然，如果我們搞砸了

we could face the end of this civilization,

可能會面臨文明的終結

but if we get it right,

不過如果我們弄對了

it could be the beginning of civilization instead.

這可能會是文明的開始

And how cool would it be

如果告訴你們的兒孫說當時你也是其中的一份子

to tell your grandchildren that you were part of that?

不知道會有多酷啊

There's certainly no technical or economic barrier in the way.

過程中必然沒有科技或經濟上的障礙

Scientists like James Hansen tell us

像James Hansen這樣的科學家就告訴我們

we may need to eliminate net CO2 emissions from the economy

我們必須在幾十年內降低

in just a few decades.

二氧化碳的淨排放量

I wanted to know what that would take,

我想知道究竟要付出多少代價

so I worked with professor Jorgen Randers from Norway

所以我和挪威的Jorgen Randers教授合作

to find the answer.

一起尋找答案

We developed a plan called "The One Degree War Plan" --

我們籌措一項名為「1度的戰爭計畫」，

so named because of the level of mobilization and focus required.

之所以這樣命名是因為動員幅度和聚焦範圍廣大

To my surprise,

讓我意外的是，

eliminating net CO2 emissions from the economy in just 20 years

花20年減少整個經濟體的CO2淨排放量

is actually pretty easy and pretty cheap,

其實很簡單又不貴

not very cheap,

雖不便宜

but certainly less than the cost of a collapsing civilization.

但一定比文明崩毀的代價還小

We didn't calculate that precisely,

我們沒有精確的計算

but we understand that's very expensive.

不過我們知道很貴

You can read the details,

各位可以看細目

but in summary, we can transform our economy.

不過總歸來說，我們可以改變我們的經濟體

We can do it with proven technology.

我們用現有的科技就可以做到

We can do it at an affordable cost.

用現有的資金就可以完成

We can do it with existing political structures.

用當前的政治結構就可以達成

The only thing we need to change

唯一要改變的是

is how we think and how we feel.

我們的想法和感受

And this is where you come in.

這就是大家步入的世界

When we think about the future I paint,

一想到未來我就覺得心痛

of course we should feel a bit of fear.

當然多少要覺得有點恐懼

But fear can be paralyzing or motivating.

不過恐懼可以讓人癱軟，也可以讓人振作

We need to accept the fear and then we need to act.

我們必須接受恐懼，然後採取行動

We need to act

我們要付諸行動

like the future depends on it.

因為未來的命運決定在此

We need to act like we only have one planet.

我們要採取行動，因為地球只有一個

We can do this.

我們可以做到的

I know the free market fundamentalists will tell you

我知道信奉自由市場的人會跟你說

that more growth, more stuff and nine billion people going shopping

越多的經濟成長，越多的貨物， 好讓90億的人口消費

is the best we can do.

才是最好的辦法

They're wrong.

他們錯了

We can be more,

我們可以更好

we can be much more.

可以變得非常好

We have achieved remarkable things

打從一萬年前人類開始耕作已來

since working out how to grow food some 10,000 years ago.

我們已經實現了不凡的成就

We've built a powerful foundation

我們建立了科學、知識

of science, knowledge and technology --

以及科技的強健基礎

more than enough to build a society

足以讓我們建立一個地球村

where nine billion people

讓90億的人口

can lead decent, meaningful and satisfying lives.

過著小康、有意義，而且又滿足的生活

The Earth can support that

假如我們走對方向

if we choose the right path.

地球可以負荷得起的

We can choose this moment of crisis

我們可以趁這次的危機提問

to ask and answer the big questions of society's evolution --

並回答人類社群發展的重要問題，

like, what do we want to be when we grow up,

像是，當我們走過了起伏不定的青春期，

when we move past this bumbling adolescence

那時認為沒有不可能實現的事情，

where we think there are no limits

也深痛的體認到世上沒有長生不老，

and suffer delusions of immortality?

長大後我們想要成為什麼樣的人？

Well it's time to grow up,

該是長大的時候了

to be wiser, to be calmer,

要學聰明點，要冷靜點

to be more considered.

要能深思熟慮

Like generations before us,

就像幾個世代以前

we'll be growing up in war --

我們從戰爭中學習成長

not a war between civilizations,

這裡不是指不同文明間的戰爭

but a war for civilization,

而是捍衛文明的戰爭

for the extraordinary opportunity

為了能夠把握時機

to build a society

創造更強大、更和樂的社會，

which is stronger and happier

並讓文明延續

and plans on staying around

直到中世紀的

into middle age.

一場生存奮戰

We can choose life over fear.

我們可以選擇生存，而非恐懼

We can do what we need to do,

我們可以完成該做的事

but it will take every entrepreneur,

不過需要每位企業家，

every artist,

每位藝術家，

every scientist, every communicator,

每位科學家，每位傳播者

every mother, every father, every child,

每位母親，每位父親，每個孩子，

every one of us.

所有人的努力

This could be our finest hour.

這會是最璀璨的時刻

Thank you.

謝謝

(Applause)

（鼓掌）