Paul Gilding: The Earth is full

350,348 views ・ 2012-03-01

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Prevoditelj: Katarina Smetko Recezent: Marija Marčetić
00:15
Let me begin with four words
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Počeo bih s tri riječi
00:18
that will provide the context for this week,
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koje će dati kontekst cijelome ovom tjednu,
00:20
four words that will come to define
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tri riječi koje će definirati
00:22
this century.
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ovo stoljeće.
00:24
Here they are:
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Evo ih:
00:26
The Earth is full.
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Zemlja je puna.
00:29
It's full of us, it's full of our stuff,
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Puna je nas, puna je naših stvari,
00:32
full of our waste, full of our demands.
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puna je otpada, puna naših zahtjeva.
00:35
Yes, we are a brilliant and creative species,
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Da, briljantna smo i kreativna vrsta,
00:38
but we've created a little too much stuff --
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ali proizveli smo malo previše stvari --
00:42
so much that our economy is now bigger
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toliko da je naše gospodarstvo sada veće
00:45
than its host, our planet.
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od svojeg domaćina, ovog planeta.
00:48
This is not a philosophical statement,
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Ovo nije filozofska izjava,
00:50
this is just science
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radi se samo o znanosti
00:52
based in physics,
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utemeljenoj na fizici,
00:54
chemistry and biology.
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kemiji i biologiji.
00:57
There are many science-based analyses of this,
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Postoji mnogo znanstvenih analiza ovog problema,
00:59
but they all draw the same conclusion --
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a sve su došle do istoga zaključka:
01:02
that we're living beyond our means.
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živimo iznad svojih mogućnosti.
01:05
The eminent scientists of the Global Footprint Network, for example,
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Ugledni znanstvenici iz organizacije Global Footprint Network, primjerice,
01:08
calculate that we need about 1.5 Earths
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izračunali su da bi nam trebala oko 1,5 Zemlja
01:11
to sustain this economy.
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da bi se ovo gospodarstvo održalo.
01:14
In other words,
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Drugim riječima,
01:16
to keep operating at our current level,
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da bismo nastavili funkcionirati ovim ritmom,
01:18
we need 50 percent more Earth than we've got.
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trebalo bi nam 50% više Zemlje nego što imamo.
01:23
In financial terms,
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Financijskim rječnikom,
01:25
this would be like always spending 50 percent more than you earn,
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to je kao da uvijek potrošite 50% više nego zaradite
01:29
going further into debt every year.
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i svake godine imate sve veći dug.
01:31
But of course, you can't borrow natural resources,
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No, prirodne resurse, naravno, ne možete posuditi,
01:34
so we're burning through our capital,
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tako da trošimo kapital,
01:37
or stealing from the future.
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odnosno krademo od budućnosti.
01:40
So when I say full, I mean really full --
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Zato kad kažem puna, mislim zaista puna --
01:43
well past any margin for error,
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preko svih granica dozvoljene pogreške,
01:45
well past any dispute
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nema više koristi
01:47
about methodology.
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ni osporavati metodologiju.
01:51
What this means is our economy is unsustainable.
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To znači da je naše gospodarstvo neodrživo.
01:54
I'm not saying it's not nice or pleasant
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Ne govorim da nije dobro ili korisno
01:57
or that it's bad for polar bears or forests,
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ili da je loše za polarne medvjede ili šume,
01:59
though it certainly is.
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iako svakako jest.
02:01
What I'm saying
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Zapravo hoću reći
02:03
is our approach is simply unsustainable.
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da je naš pristup jednostavno neodrživ.
02:05
In other words, thanks to those pesky laws of physics,
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Drugim riječima, zahvaljujući nezgodnim zakonima fizike,
02:08
when things aren't sustainable, they stop.
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kad su stvari neodržive, dođe im kraj.
02:11
But that's not possible, you might think.
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Ali to nije moguće, možda ćete pomisliti.
02:13
We can't stop economic growth.
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Ne možemo zaustaviti gospodarski rast.
02:15
Because that's what will stop: economic growth.
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Jer upravo će se to zaustaviti: gospodarski rast.
02:18
It will stop because of the end of trade resources.
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Zaustavit će jer će doći kraj resursima za trgovanje.
02:21
It will stop because of the growing demand of us
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Zaustavit će se jer sve više trošimo
02:26
on all the resources, all the capacity,
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sve resurse, sve kapacitete,
02:28
all the systems of the Earth,
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sve Zemljine sustave,
02:30
which is now having economic damage.
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što je sada štetno za gospodarstvo.
02:35
When we think about economic growth stopping,
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Kad razmišljamo o prestanku gospodarskog rasta,
02:37
we go, "That's not possible,"
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kažemo: "To nije moguće."
02:40
because economic growth is so essential to our society
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jer gospodarski je rast tako nužan za naše društvo
02:43
that is is rarely questioned.
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da rijetko sumnjamo u njega.
02:46
Although growth has certainly delivered many benefits,
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Iako je rast svakako pokazao brojne prednosti,
02:49
it is an idea so essential
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on je toliko neophodan
02:51
that we tend not to understand
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da često uopće ne razumijemo
02:53
the possibility of it not being around.
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mogućnost da ga nema.
02:55
Even though it has delivered many benefits,
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Iako je donio mnoge koristi,
02:57
it is based on a crazy idea --
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temelji se na ludoj ideji --
03:00
the crazy idea being
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na ideji
03:02
that we can have infinite growth
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da možemo imati beskonačan rast
03:04
on a finite planet.
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na konačnom planetu.
03:06
And I'm here to tell you the emperor has no clothes.
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Došao sam vam reći da je car gol.
03:09
That the crazy idea is just that,
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Da je luda ideja upravo to --
03:11
it is crazy,
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luda je,
03:13
and with the Earth full, it's game over.
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a budući da je Zemlja puna, ne možemo dalje.
03:15
Come on, you're thinking.
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Ma daj, sigurno mislite.
03:17
That's not possible.
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To nije moguće.
03:19
Technology is amazing. People are innovative.
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Tehnologija je fantastična. Ljudi su inovativni.
03:22
There are so many ways we can improve the way we do things.
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Ima toliko načina da popravimo način na koji funkcioniramo.
03:24
We can surely sort this out.
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Sigurno to možemo riješiti.
03:26
That's all true.
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Sve je to istina.
03:28
Well, it's mostly true.
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Dobro, uglavnom je istina.
03:30
We are certainly amazing,
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Mi svakako jesmo fantastični
03:32
and we regularly solve complex problems
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i redovito rješavamo složene probleme
03:34
with amazing creativity.
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fantastičnom kreativnošću.
03:36
So if our problem
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Pa kad bi naš problem bio
03:38
was to get the human economy down
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smanjiti svjetsko gospodarstvo
03:40
from 150 percent to 100 percent of the Earth's capacity,
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sa 150% na 100% Zemljinih kapaciteta,
03:43
we could do that.
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mogli bismo to učiniti.
03:45
The problem is we're just warming up
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Problem je što tek zagrijavamo
03:47
this growth engine.
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stroj za rast.
03:49
We plan to take this highly-stressed economy
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Planiramo ovo napeto gospodarstvo
03:52
and make it twice as big
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udvostručiti,
03:55
and then make it four times as big --
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a onda učetverostručiti --
03:57
not in some distant future,
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i to ne u nekoj dalekoj budućnosti,
04:00
but in less than 40 years,
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nego u manje od 40 godina,
04:02
in the life time of most of you.
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za života većine vas.
04:05
China plans to be there in just 20 years.
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Kina to planira postići u samo 20 godina.
04:09
The only problem with this plan
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Jedini problem s tim planom
04:12
is that it's not possible.
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jest da nije izvediv.
04:16
In response, some people argue,
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Mnogi ljudi onda kažu
04:18
but we need growth, we need it to solve poverty.
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da trebamo rast, trebamo riješiti problem siromaštva.
04:20
We need it to develop technology.
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Moramo razvijati tehnologiju.
04:22
We need it to keep social stability.
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Moramo zadržati društvenu stabilnost.
04:24
I find this argument fascinating,
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Meni je taj argument fascinantan,
04:26
as though we can kind of bend the rules of physics
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kao da možemo zaobići zakone fizike
04:29
to suit our needs.
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prema svojim potrebama.
04:34
It's like the Earth doesn't care what we need.
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Kao da Zemlju nije briga što mi trebamo.
04:37
Mother nature doesn't negotiate;
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Majka priroda ne pregovara.
04:39
she just sets rules and describes consequences.
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Ona samo određuje pravila i opisuje posljedice.
04:42
And these are not esoteric limits.
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To nisu neka nejasna ograničenja.
04:44
This is about food and water, soil and climate,
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Radi se o hrani, vodi, tlu i klimi,
04:46
the basic practical and economic foundations
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osnovnim praktičnim i gospodarskim temeljima
04:49
of our lives.
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naših života.
04:53
So the idea that we can smoothly transition
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Stoga, ideja da možemo glatko prijeći
04:56
to a highly-efficient,
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na visokoučinkovito gospodarstvo,
04:58
solar-powered, knowledge-based economy
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pogonjeno solarnom energijom i utemeljeno na znanju,
05:00
transformed by science and technology
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koje će znanost i tehnologija preobraziti
05:02
so that nine billion people
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tako da devet milijardi ljudi
05:04
can live in 2050
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može 2050. godine
05:07
a life of abundance and digital downloads
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živjeti u izobilju, s pristupom na internet --
05:09
is a delusion.
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to je zabluda.
05:12
It's not that it's not possible to feed, clothe and house us all
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Nije da je nemoguće sve nas opskrbiti hranom, odjećom i smještajem
05:15
and have us live decent lives.
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i omogućiti nam pristojan život.
05:18
It certainly is.
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Svakako je moguće.
05:20
But the idea that we can gently grow there
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Ali ideja da lako možemo prerasti u tako nešto,
05:22
with a few minor hiccups
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uz nekoliko manjih problema,
05:24
is just wrong,
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jednostano je pogrešna,
05:26
and it's dangerously wrong,
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i to opasno pogrešna,
05:28
because it means we're not getting ready
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jer znači da se ne pripremamo
05:30
for what's really going to happen.
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za ono što će se zaista dogoditi.
05:32
See what happens when you operate a system
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Kad upravljate sustavom
05:35
past its limits
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preko njegovih mogućnosti
05:37
and then keep on going
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i nastavite tako
05:39
at an ever-accelerating rate
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sve bržim tempom,
05:42
is that the system stops working and breaks down.
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sustav će prestati funkcionirati i pokvarit će se.
05:46
And that's what will happen to us.
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To će se dogoditi i nama.
05:53
Many of you will be thinking,
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Mnogi će od vas pomisliti
05:55
but surely we can still stop this.
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da to zasigurno možemo zaustaviti.
05:57
If it's that bad, we'll react.
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Ako je toliko loše, reagirat ćemo.
06:00
Let's just think through that idea.
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Razmislimo malo o toj ideji.
06:02
Now we've had
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Do sada je već prošlo
06:04
50 years of warnings.
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50 godina upozoravanja.
06:06
We've had science proving
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Znanost je dokazala
06:09
the urgency of change.
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da nam hitno trebaju promjene.
06:11
We've had economic analysis pointing out
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Ekonomske su analize pokazale da
06:13
that, not only can we afford it,
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ne samo da si to možemo priuštiti,
06:15
it's cheaper to act early.
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već i da je jeftinije reagirati rano.
06:17
And yet, the reality is
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A ipak, stvarnost je takva
06:19
we've done pretty much nothing to change course.
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da nismo učinili gotovo ništa u smjeru promjene.
06:22
We're not even slowing down.
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Čak ni ne usporavamo.
06:25
Last year on climate, for example,
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Po pitanju klime, primjerice,
06:27
we had the highest global emissions ever.
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lani su globalno bile najviše razine emisija u povijesti.
06:29
The story on food, on water, on soil, on climate
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S hranom, vodom, plodnim tlom, klimom
06:32
is all much the same.
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situacija je više-manje ista.
06:35
I actually don't say this in despair.
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Ne govorim ovo u očaju.
06:37
I've done my grieving about the loss.
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Ja sam svoje odtugovao zbog ovog gubitka.
06:39
I accept where we are.
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Prihvaćam situaciju u kojoj smo.
06:41
It is sad,
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Tužna je,
06:43
but it is what it is.
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ali takva je kakva je.
06:45
But it is also time
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Ali isto je tako i vrijeme
06:47
that we ended our denial
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da prestanemo zatvarati oči pred time
06:49
and recognized
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i shvatimo
06:51
that we're not acting, we're not close to acting
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da ništa ne poduzimamo, da nismo ni blizu toga
06:54
and we're not going to act
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i da ni nećemo ništa poduzeti
06:56
until this crisis hits the economy.
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dok ta kriza ne pogodi gospodarstvo.
06:58
And that's why the end of growth
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Zato je zaustavljanje rasta
07:00
is the central issue
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najvažniji problem
07:02
and the event that we need to get ready for.
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i nešto na što se moramo pripremiti.
07:06
So when does this transition begin?
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Kad će početi taj prijelaz?
07:08
When does this breakdown begin?
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Kad će početi taj slom?
07:10
In my view, it is well underway.
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Po meni, već je dobrano počeo.
07:13
I know most people don't see it that way.
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Znam da većina ljudi to ne vidi tako.
07:15
We tend to look at the world,
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Skloni smo tome da svijet ne gledamo
07:17
not as the integrated system that it is,
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kao integrirani sustav, što on jest,
07:19
but as a series of individual issues.
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već kao niz pojedinačnih problema.
07:21
We see the Occupy protests,
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Vidimo prosvjede pokreta Occupy,
07:24
we see spiraling debt crises,
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vidimo sve dublje dužničke krize,
07:26
we see growing inequality,
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vidimo sve veću nejednakost,
07:28
we see money's influence on politics,
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vidimo utjecaj novca na politiku,
07:30
we see resource constraint, food and oil prices.
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vidimo ograničenost resursa, cijene hrane i goriva.
07:33
But we see, mistakenly, each of these issues
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No, svaki od tih problema pogrešno vidimo
07:35
as individual problems to be solved.
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kao pojedinačne probleme koje treba riješiti.
07:39
In fact, it's the system
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No, zapravo je sustav
07:41
in the painful process of breaking down --
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u bolnom procesu slamanja --
07:44
our system, of debt-fueled economic growth,
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naš sustav gospodarskog rasta utemeljenog na dugu,
07:47
of ineffective democracy,
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neučinkovite demokracije,
07:49
of overloading planet Earth,
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preopterećenja planeta Zemlje,
07:51
is eating itself alive.
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uništava sam sebe.
07:56
I could give you countless studies
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Mogu vam navesti bezbrojne studije
07:57
and evidence to prove this,
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i dokaze za to,
08:00
but I won't because, if you want to see it,
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ali neću jer ako to želite vidjeti
08:02
that evidence is all around you.
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dokazi su svugdje oko vas.
08:05
I want to talk to you about fear.
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Želim vam govoriti o strahu.
08:08
I want to do so because, in my view,
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Želim to učiniti jer mislim da je
08:11
the most important issue we face
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najvažniji problem s kojim smo suočeni
08:16
is how we respond
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to kako reagiramo
08:18
to this question.
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na ta pitanja.
08:20
The crisis is now inevitable.
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Kriza je sada neizbježna.
08:23
This issue is, how will we react?
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Pitanje je kako ćemo reagirati.
08:27
Of course, we can't know what will happen.
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Naravno, ne možemo znati što će se dogoditi.
08:30
The future is inherently uncertain.
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Budućnost je neizvjesna.
08:32
But let's just think through what the science is telling us
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No, razmislimo o tome što nam znanost kaže
08:35
is likely to happen.
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da će se vjerojatno dogoditi.
08:38
Imagine our economy
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Zamislite naše gospodarstvo
08:41
when the carbon bubble bursts,
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kad potrošimo fosilna goriva,
08:43
when the financial markets recognize
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kad financijska tržišta shvate da,
08:45
that, to have any hope
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ako želimo bilo kakvu nadu
08:47
of preventing the climate spiraling out of control,
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da spriječimo otimanje klime kontroli,
08:50
the oil and coal industries are finished.
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industriji nafte i ugljena mora doći kraj.
08:54
Imagine China, India and Pakistan going to war
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Zamislite da Kina, Indija i Pakistan krenu u rat
08:57
as climate impacts
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nakon što utjecaj klime
08:59
generate conflict over food and water.
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pokrene sukobe oko hrane i vode.
09:03
Imagine the Middle East without oil income,
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Zamislite Bliski istok bez prihoda od nafte,
09:06
but with collapsing governments.
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ali s vladama pred slomom.
09:08
Imagine our highly-tuned, just-in-time food industry
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Zamislite našu automatiziranu prehrambenu industriju
09:12
and our highly-stressed agricultural system failing
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i naš opterećeni poljoprivredni sustav kako propada
09:15
and supermarket shelves emptying.
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i police u supermarketima kako se prazne.
09:19
Imagine 30 percent unemployment in America
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Zamislite 30-postotnu nezaposlenost u Americi
09:22
as the global economy is gripped
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zbog štetnih posljedica
09:24
by fear and uncertainty.
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straha i nesigurnosti.
09:26
Now imagine what that means for you,
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Zamislite što to znači za vas,
09:28
your family, your friends,
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vašu obitelj, vaše prijatelje,
09:31
your personal financial security.
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vašu financijsku sigurnost.
09:33
Imagine what it means
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Zamislite što to znači
09:35
for your personal security
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za vašu osobnu sigurnost,
09:37
as a heavily armed civilian population
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dok teško naoružana civilna populacija
09:39
gets angrier and angrier
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postaje sve ljuća
09:41
about why this was allowed to happen.
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jer je dopušteno da se to dogodi.
09:45
Imagine what you'll tell your children
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Razmislite što ćete reći svojoj djeci
09:47
when they ask you,
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kad vas pitaju:
09:49
"So, in 2012, Mom and Dad,
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"Onda, mama i tata, 2012. godine,
09:51
what was it like
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kako je bilo
09:53
when you'd had the hottest decade on record
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kad ste imali najtoplije zabilježeno desetljeće
09:56
for the third decade in a row,
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već treće desetljeće u nizu,
09:58
when every scientific body in the world was saying
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kad su svi znanstvenici na svijetu govorili
10:01
you've got a major problem,
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da imate ogroman problem,
10:04
when the oceans were acidifying,
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kad su oceani postajali sve kiseliji,
10:06
when oil and food prices were spiking,
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kad su cijene nafte i hrane bile na vrhuncu,
10:08
when they were rioting in the streets of London
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kad su na ulicama Londona bili neredi
10:11
and occupying Wall Street?
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i kad je okupiran Wall Street?
10:13
When the system was so clearly breaking down, Mom and Dad,
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Dok se sustav tako očito rušio, mama i tata,
10:16
what did you do, what were you thinking?"
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što ste vi učinili, o čemu ste razmišljali?"
10:21
So how do you feel
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Kako se osjećate
10:24
when the lights go out
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kad se ugase svjetla
10:26
on the global economy in your mind,
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svjetskog gospodarstva u vašoj glavi,
10:30
when your assumptions about the future
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kad vaše pretpostavke o budućnosti
10:33
fade away
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izblijede
10:35
and something very different emerges?
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i pojavi se nešto mnogo drugačije?
10:38
Just take a moment
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Zastanite na trenutak,
10:40
and take a breath
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udahnite
10:42
and think, what do you feel
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i razmislite što osjećate
10:45
at this point?
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u ovom trenutku.
10:51
Perhaps denial.
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Možda poričete.
10:54
Perhaps anger.
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Možda ste ljuti.
10:57
Maybe fear.
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Možda se bojite.
11:02
Of course, we can't know what's going to happen
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Naravno, ne možemo znati što će se dogoditi
11:05
and we have to live with uncertainty.
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i moramo živjeti s nesigurnošću.
11:08
But when we think about the kind of possibilities I paint,
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No, kad razmislimo o mogućnostima koje prikazujem,
11:12
we should feel a bit of fear.
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i trebamo se malo bojati.
11:16
We are in danger, all of us,
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U opasnosti smo, svi mi,
11:19
and we've evolved to respond to danger with fear
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i evolucijski na opasnost reagiramo strahom
11:22
to motivate a powerful response,
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kako bismo potaknuli snažnu reakciju
11:26
to help us bravely face a threat.
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i hrabro se suočili s prijetnjom.
11:29
But this time it's not a tiger at the cave mouth.
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No, ovaj put tigar nije na ulazu u spilju.
11:32
You can't see the danger at your door.
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Opasnost nije jasno vidljiva.
11:35
But if you look,
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No, ako pogledate,
11:37
you can see it at the door of your civilization.
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vidjet ćete je pred vratima svoje civilizacije.
11:41
That's why we need to feel our response now while the lights are still on,
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Zato moramo smisliti svoju reakciju sada, dok su svjetla još upaljena,
11:44
because if we wait until the crisis takes hold,
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jer ako budemo čekali da kriza nastupi svom snagom,
11:47
we may panic and hide.
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mogli bismo se uspaničariti i sakriti.
11:49
If we feel it now and think it through,
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Ako to smislimo i promislimo sada,
11:51
we will realize we have nothing to fear
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shvatit ćemo da se ne trebamo bojati ničega
11:53
but fear itself.
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osim samog straha.
11:58
Yes, things will get ugly, and it will happen soon --
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Da, stvari će postati gadne, i to uskoro --
12:01
certainly in our lifetime --
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svakako za naših života --
12:03
but we are more than capable
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ali i više smo nego sposobni
12:05
of getting through everything that's coming.
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preživjeti sve što dolazi.
12:08
You see, those people that have faith
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Vidite, ljudi koji vjeruju
12:11
that humans can solve any problem,
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da čovječanstvo može riješiti bilo koji problem,
12:14
that technology is limitless, that markets can be a force for good,
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da je tehnologija bezgranična, da tržišta mogu biti pozitivna sila,
12:17
are in fact right.
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zapravo su u pravu.
12:19
The only thing they're missing
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Jedino što ne uviđaju
12:21
is that it takes a good crisis to get us going.
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jest da je potrebna velika kriza da nas pokrene.
12:24
When we feel fear and we fear loss
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Kad osjećamo strah i bojimo se gubitka,
12:27
we are capable of quite extraordinary things.
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sposobni smo za izvanredne stvari.
12:30
Think about war.
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Primjerice, rat.
12:33
After the bombing of Pearl Harbor, it just took four days
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Nakon bombardiranja Pearl Harbora, vlada je nakon samo četiri dana
12:36
for the government to ban the production of civilian cars
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zabranila proizvodnju civilnih automobila
12:38
and to redirect the auto industry,
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i preusmjerila automobilsku industriju,
12:40
and from there to rationing of food and energy.
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a zatim prešla na racionalizaciju hrane i energije.
12:44
Think about how a company responds to a bankruptcy threat
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Sjetite se kako tvrtke reagiraju kad im prijeti bankrot
12:47
and how a change that seemed impossible just gets done.
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i kako se promjene koje su se činile nemogućima jednostavno dogode.
12:50
Think about how an individual responds
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Sjetite se kako pojedinci reagiraju
12:52
to a diagnosis of a life-threatening illness
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na dijagnozu bolesti opasne po život
12:55
and how lifestyle changes
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i kako promjene u stilu života
12:57
that previously were just too difficult
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koje su prije bile preteške
13:00
suddenly become relatively easy.
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odjednom postanu relativno lake.
13:04
We are smart, in fact, we really are quite amazing,
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Pametni smo -- zapravo smo fantastični,
13:07
but we do love a good crisis.
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ali stvarno volimo pravu krizu.
13:09
And the good news, this one's a monster.
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Dobra je vijest da je ova pravo čudovište.
13:11
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
13:13
Sure, if we get it wrong,
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Naravno, ako ne obavimo sve kako treba,
13:15
we could face the end of this civilization,
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mogli bismo doživjeti kraj ove civilizacije,
13:17
but if we get it right,
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ali ako sve učinimo dobro,
13:19
it could be the beginning of civilization instead.
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mogao bi to biti početak civilizacije.
13:22
And how cool would it be
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Ne bi li bilo cool
13:24
to tell your grandchildren that you were part of that?
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ispričati svojim unucima da ste sudjelovali u tome?
13:29
There's certainly no technical or economic barrier in the way.
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Svakako nema tehničkih ni ekonomskih prepreka.
13:34
Scientists like James Hansen tell us
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Znanstvenici poput Jamesa Hansena kažu nam
13:36
we may need to eliminate net CO2 emissions from the economy
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da ćemo možda morati ukloniti emisije CO2 iz gospodarstva
13:39
in just a few decades.
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u samo nekoliko desetljeća.
13:41
I wanted to know what that would take,
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Htio sam znati što bi bilo potrebno za to
13:43
so I worked with professor Jorgen Randers from Norway
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pa sam surađivao s profesorom Jorgenom Randersom iz Norveške
13:46
to find the answer.
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kako bih pronašao odgovor.
13:48
We developed a plan called "The One Degree War Plan" --
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Razradili smo plan pod nazivom "Ratni plan u jednom koraku" --
13:52
so named because of the level of mobilization and focus required.
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tako nazvan zbog potrebne razine mobilizacije i usredotočenosti.
13:56
To my surprise,
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Na moje iznenađenje,
13:58
eliminating net CO2 emissions from the economy in just 20 years
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uklanjanje neto emisija CO2 iz gospodarstva u samo 20 godina
14:01
is actually pretty easy and pretty cheap,
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zapravo je prilično lako i jeftino.
14:04
not very cheap,
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Nije baš vrlo jeftino,
14:06
but certainly less than the cost of a collapsing civilization.
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ali svakako će stajati manje nego pad civilizacije.
14:09
We didn't calculate that precisely,
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To nismo precizno izračunali,
14:11
but we understand that's very expensive.
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ali čini nam se da bi to bilo vrlo skupo.
14:14
You can read the details,
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Detalje možete pročitati,
14:16
but in summary, we can transform our economy.
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ali ukratko, možemo preoblikovati svoje gospodarstvo.
14:18
We can do it with proven technology.
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Možemo to učiniti iskušanom tehnologijom.
14:20
We can do it at an affordable cost.
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Možemo to učiniti uz prihvatljiv trošak.
14:22
We can do it with existing political structures.
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Možemo to učiniti uz postojeće političke strukture.
14:24
The only thing we need to change
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Jedino što trebamo promijeniti
14:26
is how we think and how we feel.
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jest način na koji mislimo i osjećamo.
14:29
And this is where you come in.
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Tu nastupate vi.
14:32
When we think about the future I paint,
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Kad razmišljamo o budućnosti koju prikazujem,
14:34
of course we should feel a bit of fear.
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naravno da bismo trebali osjećati malo straha.
14:36
But fear can be paralyzing or motivating.
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No, strah nas može paralizirati ili motivirati.
14:39
We need to accept the fear and then we need to act.
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Moramo prihvatiti strah i zatim moramo djelovati.
14:42
We need to act
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Moramo djelovati
14:44
like the future depends on it.
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kao da nam budućnost ovisi o tome.
14:46
We need to act like we only have one planet.
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Moramo djelovati kao da imamo samo jedan planet.
14:50
We can do this.
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Možemo to učiniti.
14:52
I know the free market fundamentalists will tell you
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Znam da će vam zagovaratelji slobodnog tržišta reći
14:55
that more growth, more stuff and nine billion people going shopping
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da je veći rast, više stvari i 9 milijardi ljudi koji idu u kupnju
14:58
is the best we can do.
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najbolje što možemo učiniti.
15:00
They're wrong.
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U krivu su.
15:02
We can be more,
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Možemo biti više od toga,
15:04
we can be much more.
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možemo biti mnogo više.
15:06
We have achieved remarkable things
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Postigli smo zapanjujuće stvari
15:09
since working out how to grow food some 10,000 years ago.
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otkad smo otkrili kako se uzgaja hrana pred nekih 10.000 godina.
15:11
We've built a powerful foundation
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Izgradili smo čvrst temelj
15:14
of science, knowledge and technology --
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u znanosti, znanju i tehnologiji --
15:16
more than enough to build a society
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što je i više nego dovoljno za izgradnju društva
15:18
where nine billion people
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u kojem devet milijardi ljudi
15:20
can lead decent, meaningful and satisfying lives.
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može voditi pristojne, smislene i zadovoljavajuće živote.
15:22
The Earth can support that
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Zemlja to može izdržati
15:24
if we choose the right path.
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ako odaberemo pravi put.
15:28
We can choose this moment of crisis
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Možemo u ovom trenutku krize
15:30
to ask and answer the big questions of society's evolution --
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postaviti i odgovoriti na velika pitanja evolucije društva --
15:33
like, what do we want to be when we grow up,
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primjerice, što želimo biti kad odrastemo,
15:36
when we move past this bumbling adolescence
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kad prođemo ovu nespretnu adolescenciju
15:39
where we think there are no limits
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u kojoj mislimo da nema ograničenja
15:41
and suffer delusions of immortality?
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i patimo od iluzija besmrtnosti?
15:44
Well it's time to grow up,
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Vrijeme je da odrastemo,
15:46
to be wiser, to be calmer,
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da postanemo mudriji, mirniji,
15:48
to be more considered.
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da budemo obzirniji.
15:50
Like generations before us,
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Poput generacija prije nas,
15:52
we'll be growing up in war --
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odrastat ćemo uz rat --
15:54
not a war between civilizations,
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ne rat između civilizacija,
15:56
but a war for civilization,
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nego rat za civilizaciju,
15:58
for the extraordinary opportunity
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za izvanrednu priliku
16:00
to build a society
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da izgradimo društvo
16:02
which is stronger and happier
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koje je snažnije i sretnije
16:04
and plans on staying around
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i planira doživjeti
16:06
into middle age.
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i zrelu dob.
16:09
We can choose life over fear.
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Možemo izabrati život umjesto straha.
16:11
We can do what we need to do,
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Možemo učiniti ono što je potrebno,
16:15
but it will take every entrepreneur,
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ali za to će biti potreban svaki poduzetnik,
16:17
every artist,
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svaki umjetnik,
16:19
every scientist, every communicator,
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svaki znanstvenik,
16:21
every mother, every father, every child,
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svaka majka, svaki otac, svako dijete,
16:24
every one of us.
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svatko od nas.
16:27
This could be our finest hour.
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Ovo nam je možda najvažniji trenutak u životu.
16:30
Thank you.
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Hvala.
16:32
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)

Original video on YouTube.com
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