Paul Gilding: The Earth is full

翻译人员: Lili Liang 校对人员: Jie Hong

Let me begin with four words

让我用四个字

that will provide the context for this week,

来概括本周的主题

four words that will come to define

这四个字

this century.

将诠释这个世纪。

Here they are:

这四个字就是：

The Earth is full.

地球已满。

It's full of us, it's full of our stuff,

地球装满了我们人类，我们的东西，

full of our waste, full of our demands.

我们的废物，还有我们的需求。

Yes, we are a brilliant and creative species,

的确，人类是集智慧与创造力于一身的物种。

but we've created a little too much stuff --

但我们创造的东西有些过多了，

so much that our economy is now bigger

以至于我们的经济增长

than its host, our planet.

超过了其寄主——地球——的承受力。

This is not a philosophical statement,

这不是一句哲言，

this is just science

而是科学，

based in physics,

是建立在物理学、

chemistry and biology.

化学和生物学基础上的科学。

There are many science-based analyses of this,

对此，人们开展了许多科学分析，

but they all draw the same conclusion --

而这些分析的结果都是相同的——

that we're living beyond our means.

我们正在透支我们的星球。

The eminent scientists of the Global Footprint Network, for example,

举个例子，环球足迹组织的科学家们计算得出，

calculate that we need about 1.5 Earths

我们需要1.5个地球

to sustain this economy.

才能维系现行的经济模式。

In other words,

换句话说，

to keep operating at our current level,

为了保持现有的运行状况，

we need 50 percent more Earth than we've got.

我们还需要半个地球。

In financial terms,

用财政术语来说，

this would be like always spending 50 percent more than you earn,

这就好比总支出比总收入多50%，

going further into debt every year.

导致每年的债务不断累积。

But of course, you can't borrow natural resources,

当然我们借不来自然资源，

so we're burning through our capital,

于是我们只能坐吃山空

or stealing from the future.

或超前消费。

So when I say full, I mean really full --

所以当我说地球已满，我没有半点夸张。

well past any margin for error,

千真万确。

well past any dispute

毫无疑问。

about methodology.

毫无争议。

What this means is our economy is unsustainable.

这意味着我们的经济模式是不可持续的。

I'm not saying it's not nice or pleasant

我并不是说这不是件好事，

or that it's bad for polar bears or forests,

也不是说这对北极熊或森林不利，

though it certainly is.

尽管这的确对它们不利。

What I'm saying

我的意思是

is our approach is simply unsustainable.

我们的做法是不可持续的。

In other words, thanks to those pesky laws of physics,

换句话说，多亏了那些讨厌的物理规律，

when things aren't sustainable, they stop.

当事物发展不具可持续性，它们就会停止。

But that's not possible, you might think.

你可能会认为这不可能。

We can't stop economic growth.

我们不能让经济增长停下来。

Because that's what will stop: economic growth.

这是因为停下来的是：经济增长。

It will stop because of the end of trade resources.

经济增长会因为贸易资源的终结而停止，

It will stop because of the growing demand of us

也会因为我们对地球上所有资源、

on all the resources, all the capacity,

所有空间、所有产能、

all the systems of the Earth,

所有系统贪婪的需求而停止。

which is now having economic damage.

这种贪婪如今也在损害我们的经济。

When we think about economic growth stopping,

一想到经济增长将停止，

we go, "That's not possible,"

我们自然而然的认为：“ 那是不可能的”。

because economic growth is so essential to our society

因为经济增长对于我们的社会至关重要，

that is is rarely questioned.

以致我们从来不质疑它。

Although growth has certainly delivered many benefits,

尽管增长的确带来了许多好处，

it is an idea so essential

但是由于这个概念过于重要，

that we tend not to understand

以至于我们不愿去想象

the possibility of it not being around.

它消失的可能性。

Even though it has delivered many benefits,

尽管它带来了许多好处，

it is based on a crazy idea --

但是它却建立在一个疯狂的想法上——

the crazy idea being

这个想法就是

that we can have infinite growth

我们可以在一个有限的地球上

on a finite planet.

进行无限的发展。

And I'm here to tell you the emperor has no clothes.

我在这里告诉你们这些穿新衣的皇帝，

That the crazy idea is just that,

这个想法就是这样，

it is crazy,

非常疯狂，

and with the Earth full, it's game over.

当地球已满，游戏结束。

Come on, you're thinking.

你在想：少来了，

That's not possible.

那是不可能的。

Technology is amazing. People are innovative.

科技是如此神奇。人们善于创新。

There are so many ways we can improve the way we do things.

我们有很多办法来改进做事的方式。

We can surely sort this out.

我们一定可以解决这个问题。

That's all true.

这些都对。

Well, it's mostly true.

应该说，多数情况下是对的。

We are certainly amazing,

我们的确很厉害。

and we regularly solve complex problems

我们经常用神奇的创造力

with amazing creativity.

解决复杂的问题。

So if our problem

如果我们的问题

was to get the human economy down

是把人类经济

from 150 percent to 100 percent of the Earth's capacity,

从150%缩减到100%的地球承载力，

we could do that.

那么我们可以做到。

The problem is we're just warming up

问题是，我们还处于

this growth engine.

给这台增长发动机预热的阶段。

We plan to take this highly-stressed economy

我们打算让这个高度紧绷的经济

and make it twice as big

翻一番，

and then make it four times as big --

再翻一番。

not in some distant future,

不是在遥远的未来，

but in less than 40 years,

而是在四十年之内，

in the life time of most of you.

在在座大多数人的有生之年。

China plans to be there in just 20 years.

中国打算只用20年就实现这个目标。

The only problem with this plan

这个计划的唯一缺点就是

is that it's not possible.

它是不可行的。

In response, some people argue,

对此，有人就反驳了

but we need growth, we need it to solve poverty.

我们需要增长来消除贫困，

We need it to develop technology.

来发展科技，

We need it to keep social stability.

来维持社会稳定。

I find this argument fascinating,

我发现这些论调都非常吸引人，

as though we can kind of bend the rules of physics

仿佛我们可以扭曲物理法则

to suit our needs.

来适应我们的需求。

It's like the Earth doesn't care what we need.

这就好比地球并不在乎我们的需要。

Mother nature doesn't negotiate;

大自然从不与我们协商；

she just sets rules and describes consequences.

她只是规定一系列法则，并警告我们违反法则的后果。

And these are not esoteric limits.

这些并不是什么隐藏的限制。

This is about food and water, soil and climate,

这是关于我们生活所需的食物、水、土壤和气候，

the basic practical and economic foundations

我们实际可见的、经济发展的

of our lives.

生活基础。

So the idea that we can smoothly transition

有些人认为我们可以成功转型，

to a highly-efficient,

过渡到一个高效的、

solar-powered, knowledge-based economy

太阳能发电、以知识为基础的经济，

transformed by science and technology

用科学技术实现这个转型，

so that nine billion people

让90亿人口

can live in 2050

到2050年

a life of abundance and digital downloads

能够过上富足的生活并享受数字下载。

is a delusion.

这只是个幻想。

It's not that it's not possible to feed, clothe and house us all

我并不是说我们不可能

and have us live decent lives.

过上衣食无忧的美好生活。

It certainly is.

当然是有可能的。

But the idea that we can gently grow there

但是，单纯地认为我们能够

with a few minor hiccups

不费吹灰之力就实现那样的增长，

is just wrong,

那就错了，

and it's dangerously wrong,

大错特错。

because it means we're not getting ready

因为这意味着，我们并没有

for what's really going to happen.

为真正即将发生的结果做好准备。

See what happens when you operate a system

试想一下，如果你超负荷运行一个系统

past its limits

会发生什么情况，

and then keep on going

接着以持续加快的速度

at an ever-accelerating rate

不停运行下去。

is that the system stops working and breaks down.

这个系统会停止运转，继而崩溃。

And that's what will happen to us.

这就是我们的结局。

Many of you will be thinking,

许多人可能会想

but surely we can still stop this.

我们肯定可以阻止这样的情况发生。

If it's that bad, we'll react.

如果情况真有这么糟，我们可以采取对策。

Let's just think through that idea.

让我们思考一下这个想法。

Now we've had

在过去的五十年中

50 years of warnings.

我们不停地收到警示。

We've had science proving

科学已证实了

the urgency of change.

做出改变的急迫性。

We've had economic analysis pointing out

经济分析指出

that, not only can we afford it,

我们不仅有能力做到，

it's cheaper to act early.

而且越早采取措施，成本越低。

And yet, the reality is

然而，事实是

we've done pretty much nothing to change course.

我们基本上没有做出任何改变。

We're not even slowing down.

我们甚至没有放慢速度。

Last year on climate, for example,

比如，在气候问题上，

we had the highest global emissions ever.

去年全球的碳排放量达到了历史最高值。

The story on food, on water, on soil, on climate

粮食、水、土壤、气候方面的情况

is all much the same.

几乎同样恶劣。

I actually don't say this in despair.

我并不是在说丧气话。

I've done my grieving about the loss.

我对于那些损失表示惋惜。

I accept where we are.

但我接受现状。

It is sad,

现状是悲哀的，

but it is what it is.

但事已至此。

But it is also time

然而，我们现在

that we ended our denial

不能再逃避，

and recognized

而应认识到

that we're not acting, we're not close to acting

我们并没有采取行动，甚至没有打算采取行动。

and we're not going to act

事实上，在经济危机来临之前，

until this crisis hits the economy.

我们也不会采取任何行动。

And that's why the end of growth

这就是为什么

is the central issue

停止增长

and the event that we need to get ready for.

是我们应当准备面对的核心问题。

So when does this transition begin?

那么这个转型何时开始呢？

When does this breakdown begin?

瓦解何时开始？

In my view, it is well underway.

在我看来，它早就开始了。

I know most people don't see it that way.

我知道大多数人不这么认为。

We tend to look at the world,

我们倾向于

not as the integrated system that it is,

不把世界看做一个统一的系统，

but as a series of individual issues.

而是一系列独立的问题。

We see the Occupy protests,

我们看到“占领华尔街”运动，

we see spiraling debt crises,

看到愈演愈烈的债务危机，

we see growing inequality,

看到持续扩大的不平等现象，

we see money's influence on politics,

看到金钱对政治的影响，

we see resource constraint, food and oil prices.

看到资源限制、粮食和石油价格问题

But we see, mistakenly, each of these issues

但是，我们错误地将这些问题

as individual problems to be solved.

当作独立的问题分别解决。

In fact, it's the system

实际上，这是一个

in the painful process of breaking down --

处于痛苦崩溃过程中的体系。

our system, of debt-fueled economic growth,

这个以债务驱动增长的经济体系，

of ineffective democracy,

这个民主失效的体系，

of overloading planet Earth,

这个让地球超载的体系，

is eating itself alive.

正自食恶果。

I could give you countless studies

我可以举出无数项研究

and evidence to prove this,

和证据来证明。

but I won't because, if you want to see it,

但我不这么做，因为你们想看证据，

that evidence is all around you.

证据随处可见。

I want to talk to you about fear.

我想谈谈恐惧。

I want to do so because, in my view,

这是因为，在我看来，

the most important issue we face

我们面临的最大问题

is how we respond

是如何应对

to this question.

这个问题。

The crisis is now inevitable.

危机是不可避免的。

This issue is, how will we react?

问题在于我们作何反应。

Of course, we can't know what will happen.

当然，我们无法预测将来。

The future is inherently uncertain.

未来本就变幻莫测。

But let's just think through what the science is telling us

可是，我们可以根据科学推断

is likely to happen.

将有什么情况发生。

Imagine our economy

设想一下，经济会发生什么情况

when the carbon bubble bursts,

如果碳市场泡沫破灭。

when the financial markets recognize

当金融市场意识到这一点，

that, to have any hope

想要阻止

of preventing the climate spiraling out of control,

气候问题变得一发不可收拾，

the oil and coal industries are finished.

石油和煤炭行业就要关门。

Imagine China, India and Pakistan going to war

想象一下，中国、印度和巴基斯坦将开战，

as climate impacts

因为气候影响会引发

generate conflict over food and water.

争夺粮食和水的冲突。

Imagine the Middle East without oil income,

想象一下，中东没有了石油收入，

but with collapsing governments.

而政府却分崩离析了。

Imagine our highly-tuned, just-in-time food industry

想象一下，我们高度灵敏的、准时制的食品业

and our highly-stressed agricultural system failing

和高度紧绷的农业体系都失灵了，

and supermarket shelves emptying.

超市货架都空了。

Imagine 30 percent unemployment in America

想象一下，美国的失业率达到30%

as the global economy is gripped

因为全球经济

by fear and uncertainty.

被恐惧与不确定性所支配着。

Now imagine what that means for you,

现在，想象一下，这对于你、

your family, your friends,

你的家庭、你的朋友、

your personal financial security.

你个人的财务安全，意味着什么。

Imagine what it means

想象一下

for your personal security

这对于你的个人安全意味着什么，

as a heavily armed civilian population

如果一群全副武装的民众

gets angrier and angrier

对于眼前所发生的事情

about why this was allowed to happen.

变得愈发愤怒。

Imagine what you'll tell your children

想象一下，当你的孩子

when they ask you,

问你

"So, in 2012, Mom and Dad,

爸爸妈妈，2012年

what was it like

是什么样子的，

when you'd had the hottest decade on record

当你们经历了

for the third decade in a row,

史上最热的三十年，

when every scientific body in the world was saying

当世界上每一个科学团体

you've got a major problem,

都认为你们面临一个重大问题，

when the oceans were acidifying,

当海洋不断酸化，

when oil and food prices were spiking,

当石油和粮食的价格不断疯长，

when they were rioting in the streets of London

当人们在伦敦的大街上发动骚乱，

and occupying Wall Street?

当示威者占领了华尔街时？

When the system was so clearly breaking down, Mom and Dad,

当这个体系明显在分崩离析，爸爸妈妈

what did you do, what were you thinking?"

你们做了什么，你们都在想什么？

So how do you feel

当你心中对全球经济的期望

when the lights go out

落空时，

on the global economy in your mind,

你有什么感受？

when your assumptions about the future

当你对未来的预想

fade away

灰飞烟灭，

and something very different emerges?

大为不同的另一种结果发生时，你有什么感受？

Just take a moment

用几秒钟时间

and take a breath

深呼吸

and think, what do you feel

想一想，此时此刻

at this point?

你有何感受。

Perhaps denial.

也许是否认。

Perhaps anger.

也许是愤怒。

Maybe fear.

也许是恐惧。

Of course, we can't know what's going to happen

当然，我们无法预知未来，

and we have to live with uncertainty.

且我们必须活在未知中。

But when we think about the kind of possibilities I paint,

想到我描述的那些可能发生的情况，

we should feel a bit of fear.

我们应该感到一丝恐惧。

We are in danger, all of us,

我们所有人都身处危险之中，所有，

and we've evolved to respond to danger with fear

我们已经学会以恐惧回应危险

to motivate a powerful response,

进而采取有力措施，

to help us bravely face a threat.

最终让自己勇敢面对威胁。

But this time it's not a tiger at the cave mouth.

但这次的危险并不是破篮猛虎，

You can't see the danger at your door.

危险的枪口对准的不是你的家门。

But if you look,

但是如果你仔细看，

you can see it at the door of your civilization.

你会看到枪口对准的是全人类。

That's why we need to feel our response now while the lights are still on,

这就是为什么，我们必须在还能看到光明的时候采取应对措施。

because if we wait until the crisis takes hold,

因为一旦危机占了上风，

we may panic and hide.

我们可能会惊慌失措。

If we feel it now and think it through,

如果我们现在发现了危险，并冷静思考，

we will realize we have nothing to fear

就会知道其实除了恐惧本身，

but fear itself.

我们无所畏惧。

Yes, things will get ugly, and it will happen soon --

是的，结果会让人惨不忍睹，且它即将发生，

certainly in our lifetime --

在我们有生之年必然会来临。

but we are more than capable

但是我们有能力

of getting through everything that's coming.

战胜任何挑战。

You see, those people that have faith

那些信念坚定的人

that humans can solve any problem,

相信人类能够解决一切难题，

that technology is limitless, that markets can be a force for good,

相信科技的潜力无限，相信市场能够扭转困境，

are in fact right.

他们都是对的。

The only thing they're missing

他们只是没有意识到

is that it takes a good crisis to get us going.

我们往往是由一场危机来推动社会的前进。

When we feel fear and we fear loss

当面临恐惧，害怕失败时，

we are capable of quite extraordinary things.

我们就可能化腐朽为神奇。

Think about war.

以战争为例。

After the bombing of Pearl Harbor, it just took four days

珍珠港被袭之后仅过了四天

for the government to ban the production of civilian cars

政府就下令禁止民用车的生产，

and to redirect the auto industry,

将资源配置从汽车生产

and from there to rationing of food and energy.

转向粮食和能源配给。

Think about how a company responds to a bankruptcy threat

再想想一家公司是如何应对破产威胁的。

and how a change that seemed impossible just gets done.

一个看似不可能发生的变化是如何最终实现的。

Think about how an individual responds

一个人得知自己身患绝症时

to a diagnosis of a life-threatening illness

是如何面对的。

and how lifestyle changes

之前那些顽固的生活作风

that previously were just too difficult

是如何变得

suddenly become relatively easy.

不那么难改的。

We are smart, in fact, we really are quite amazing,

我们很聪明。其实我们非常了不起。

but we do love a good crisis.

但是，我们的确需要一场醒世的危机。

And the good news, this one's a monster.

好消息是，现在这场危机可是个大家伙。

(Laughter)

（众人笑）

Sure, if we get it wrong,

当然，如果我们失败了，

we could face the end of this civilization,

那就欣然接受文明的末日。

but if we get it right,

但如果我们成功了，

it could be the beginning of civilization instead.

那就将创造新文明的开始。

And how cool would it be

你可以告诉自己的孙子孙女，

to tell your grandchildren that you were part of that?

这里面也有你的一份力。那多酷！

There's certainly no technical or economic barrier in the way.

技术和经济方面的阻碍根本不存在。

Scientists like James Hansen tell us

包括詹姆士.汉森在内的科学家告诉我们，

we may need to eliminate net CO2 emissions from the economy

我们可能需要几十年的时间

in just a few decades.

来消除经济中的二氧化碳排放。

I wanted to know what that would take,

我想弄清楚如何才能实现这个目标。

so I worked with professor Jorgen Randers from Norway

于是，我与挪威的约根.兰德斯教授合作

to find the answer.

去找答案。

We developed a plan called "The One Degree War Plan" --

我们制定了一个计划，名为“一度战争计划”。

so named because of the level of mobilization and focus required.

这个名字是根据它所需的流动性和重视度得出的。

To my surprise,

出乎意料的是

eliminating net CO2 emissions from the economy in just 20 years

在二十年内消除经济中的二氧化碳净排放

is actually pretty easy and pretty cheap,

其实挺容易的，代价也不高。

not very cheap,

虽说代价也不是特别低，

but certainly less than the cost of a collapsing civilization.

但总比文明毁灭的代价小得多。

We didn't calculate that precisely,

我们没算得那么精确，

but we understand that's very expensive.

但我们知道文明毁灭的代价绝对不小。

You can read the details,

你们可以细读这个研究。

but in summary, we can transform our economy.

总而言之，我们可以改变我们的经济。

We can do it with proven technology.

我们通过可靠的技术就能做到。

We can do it at an affordable cost.

我们不需花太高代的价就能做到。

We can do it with existing political structures.

我们通过现有的政治体制就能做到。

The only thing we need to change

我们唯一需要改变的

is how we think and how we feel.

就是思维和感受的方式。

And this is where you come in.

这就是你们的切入点。

When we think about the future I paint,

当想到我所描述的未来时，

of course we should feel a bit of fear.

我们当然应该感到有些恐惧。

But fear can be paralyzing or motivating.

但恐惧会使我们畏首畏尾，也会使我们奋勇前行。

We need to accept the fear and then we need to act.

我们必须面对恐惧，然后采取行动。

We need to act

未来取决于

like the future depends on it.

我们的行动。

We need to act like we only have one planet.

我们必须采取行动因为我们只有一个地球。

We can do this.

我们会成功的。

I know the free market fundamentalists will tell you

那些信奉自由市场的人会说，

that more growth, more stuff and nine billion people going shopping

提高增长、加大生产，让九十亿人消费

is the best we can do.

就是我们最好的选择。

They're wrong.

他们错了。

We can be more,

我们能做的

we can be much more.

比这多得多。

We have achieved remarkable things

自一万多年前，从人类学会了种植粮食开始，

since working out how to grow food some 10,000 years ago.

我们取得了令人叹为观止的丰功伟迹。

We've built a powerful foundation

我们建立了科学、知识和技术的

of science, knowledge and technology --

强大根基，

more than enough to build a society

足以建设一个社会

where nine billion people

让九十亿人

can lead decent, meaningful and satisfying lives.

过上美满充实的生活。

The Earth can support that

地球负担得起，

if we choose the right path.

只要我们选对道路。

We can choose this moment of crisis

我们可以利用此刻的危机，

to ask and answer the big questions of society's evolution --

解答社会演变的重大问题。

like, what do we want to be when we grow up,

就好比，当我们还年少懵懂，

when we move past this bumbling adolescence

以为可以恣意妄为，

where we think there are no limits

幻想能够永垂不朽；

and suffer delusions of immortality?

但经过这一时期，我们成年之后想成为什么样的人呢？

Well it's time to grow up,

现在就是该成熟的时候了。

to be wiser, to be calmer,

要变得更智慧、更冷静、

to be more considered.

更有思想。

Like generations before us,

正如我们的先辈一样，

we'll be growing up in war --

我们将在战争中成长——

not a war between civilizations,

这不是一场不同文明之间的战争，

but a war for civilization,

而是一场保卫人类文明的战争。

for the extraordinary opportunity

我们要争取绝佳的机遇，

to build a society

创造一个

which is stronger and happier

更强、更美好、

and plans on staying around

更具生命力的

into middle age.

成熟社会。

We can choose life over fear.

我们能够战胜恐惧，找到生机。

We can do what we need to do,

我们有能力采取必要的行动，

but it will take every entrepreneur,

但这需要每一位企业家、

every artist,

每一位艺术家、

every scientist, every communicator,

每一位科学家、每一位传播者、

every mother, every father, every child,

每一位母亲、每一位父亲、每一个孩子，

every one of us.

每一个人的努力。

This could be our finest hour.

这将是我们的决战时刻。

Thank you.

感谢各位。

(Applause)

（众人鼓掌）