Evgeny Morozov: How the Internet strengthens dictatorships

Prevodilac: Milica Petrovic Lektor: Ivana Korom

Good morning. I think, as a grumpy Eastern European,

Dobro jutro. Mislim da sam kao džangrizav istočni Evropljanin

I was brought in to play the pessimist this morning. So bear with me.

doveden ovde da izgravam pesimistu ovog jutra. Stoga, moraćete da me trpite.

Well, I come from the former Soviet Republic of Belarus,

Ja dolazim iz bivše Sovjetske republike Belorusije,

which, as some of you may know,

koja, kao što neki od vas možda znaju,

is not exactly an oasis of liberal democracy.

nije baš oaza liberalne demokratije.

So that's why I've always been fascinated

Zato sam uvek bio fasciniran

with how technology could actually reshape

time kako tehnologija može da preoblikuje

and open up authoritarian societies like ours.

i otvori autoritativna društva kao naše.

So, I'm graduating college

Pa, diplomirao sam na fakultetu

and, feeling very idealistic,

i, osećajući se vrlo idealistično,

I decided to join the NGO

rešio sam da se priključim nevladinoj organizaciji

which actually was using new media

koja je zapravo koristila nove medije

to promote democracy and media reform

da promoviše demokratiju i reformu medija

in much of the former Soviet Union.

u gotovo celom nekadašnjem Sovjetskom Savezu.

However, to my surprise,

Međutim, na moje iznenađenje

I discovered that dictatorships

otkrio sam da se diktature

do not crumble so easily.

ne slamaju tako lako.

In fact, some of them actually

Zapravo, neke od njih su

survived the Internet challenge,

preživele izazov interneta,

and some got even more repressive.

a neke su postale još represivnije.

So this is when I ran out of my idealism and

Tada sam napustio moj idealizam i

decided to quit my NGO job

rešio da napustim posao u nevladinoj organizaciji

and actually study how the Internet could impede democratization.

i proučavam kako to internet može da sputava demokratizaciju.

Now, I must tell you that this was never

Sada, moram vam reći da ovo nikada nije bio

a very popular argument,

mnogo popularan argument

and it's probably not very popular yet

i verovatno još uvek nije mnogo popularan

with some of you sitting in this audience.

kod nekih od vas u publici.

It was never popular with many political leaders,

Nikada nije bio popularan kod mnogih političkih vođa

especially those in the United States

posebno onih u Sjedinjenim Državama

who somehow thought that new media

koji su nekako mislili da će novi mediji

would be able to do what missiles couldn't.

moći da urade ono što rakete nisu mogle.

That is, promote democracy in difficult places

A to je, da promovišu demokratiju u nestabilnim mestima

where everything else has already been tried and failed.

gde je već sve ostalo isprobano i nije uspelo.

And I think by 2009,

Mislim da su do 2009,

this news has finally reached Britain,

ove vesti konačno stigle do Britanije,

so I should probably add Gordon Brown to this list as well.

pa bi trebalo verovatno da dodam i Gordona Brauna na ovu listu.

However, there is an underlying argument about logistics,

Ipak, postoji osnovni argument o logistici

which has driven so much of this debate. Right?

koja je bila pokretač ove debate.

So if you look at it close enough,

Ako pažljivo posmatrate,

you'll actually see that much of this

možete zapravo uočiti da je mnogo toga

is about economics.

o ekonomiji.

The cybertopians say, much like fax machines

Sajberutopisti kažu, baš kao što su faks mašine

and Xerox machines did in the '80s,

i kopir mašine radile u 1980-im,

blogs and social networks

blogovi i društvene mreže

have radically transformed the economics of protest,

su radikalno transformisali ekonomiku protesta,

so people would inevitably rebel.

pa bi se ljudi neizbežno pobunili.

To put it very simply,

Da pojednostavimo,

the assumption so far has been

pretpostavka je dosad bila

that if you give people enough connectivity,

da ako date ljudima dovoljno povezanosti,

if you give them enough devices,

ako im date dovoljno uređaja,

democracy will inevitably follow.

demokratija će neizvesno ići uz to.

And to tell you the truth,

I da vam kažem istinu,

I never really bought into this argument,

nikad nisam pao na ovaj argument,

in part because I never saw three American presidents

delimično zato što nisam nikada video da se tri američka predsednika

agree on anything else in the past.

slože oko bilo čega u prošlosti.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But, you know, even beyond that,

Ali, znate, čak iza toga,

if you think about the logic underlying it,

ako mislite na logiku koja je u osnovi,

is something I call iPod liberalism,

to je nešto što ja zovem iPod liberalizam,

where we assume that every single Iranian or Chinese

gde pretpostavljamo da svaki Iranac ili Kinez

who happens to have and love his iPod

koji poseduje i voli svoj iPod

will also love liberal democracy.

će voleti i liberalnu demokratiju.

And again, I think this is kind of false.

Ponavljam, mislim da je ovo neka vrsta laži.

But I think a much bigger problem with this

Ali mislim da je mnogo veći problem sa ovim

is that this logic --

taj da ova logika -

that we should be dropping iPods not bombs --

da treba da bacamo iPodove, a ne bombe -

I mean, it would make a fascinating title

mislim, to bi bio fascinantan naslov

for Thomas Friedman's new book.

za novu knjigu Tomasa Fridmana.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But this is rarely a good sign. Right?

Ali ovo je retko kada dobar znak. U redu?

So, the bigger problem with this logic

Veći problem u vezi sa ovom logikom

is that it confuses the intended

je da meša nameravanu

versus the actual uses of technology.

sa stvarnom upotrebom tehnologije.

For those of you who think that

Za neke od vas koji misle da

new media of the Internet

novi medij internet

could somehow help us avert genocide,

može nekako da nam pomogne da izbegnemo genocid,

should look no further than Rwanda,

ne treba da gledate dalje od Ruande,

where in the '90s it was actually two radio stations

gde je 1990-ih bilo zapravo 2 radio stanice

which were responsible for fueling much of the ethnic hatred in the first place.

koje su bile zadužene za potpirivanje etničke mržnje na prvom mestu.

But even beyond that, coming back to the Internet,

Još dalje od toga, vraćamo se na internet,

what you can actually see

ono što zaista možete videti

is that certain governments

je da su određene vlade

have mastered the use of cyberspace

ovladale korišćenjem sajberprostora

for propaganda purposes. Right?

u propagandne svrhe. U redu?

And they are building what I call the Spinternet.

I grade ono što ja zovem Spinternet.

The combination of spin, on the one hand,

Kombinaciju spinovanja, s jedne strane

and the Internet on the other.

i interneta sa druge.

So governments from Russia to China to Iran

Zato vlade od Rusije preko Kine do Irana

are actually hiring, training and paying bloggers

zapravo unajmljuju, osposobljavaju i plaćaju blogere

in order to leave ideological comments

koji ostavljaju ideološke komentare

and create a lot of ideological blog posts

i kreiraju mnogo ideoloških blogova

to comment on sensitive political issues. Right?

u kojima komentarišu osetljiva politička pitanja. U redu?

So you may wonder, why on Earth are they doing it?

Pitate se, zašto oni to rade?

Why are they engaging with cyberspace?

Zašto se angažuju u sajberprostoru?

Well my theory is that

Moja teorija je da

it's happening because censorship actually

se to dešava jer je cenzura zapravo

is less effective than you think it is in many of those places.

manje efikasna nego što mislite u mnogim tim mestima.

The moment you put something critical in a blog,

Onog trenutka kad stavite nesto kritično na blog,

even if you manage to ban it immediately,

čak iako uspete odmah da ga zabranite,

it will still spread around thousands and thousands of other blogs.

i dalje će se širiti širom hiljada i hiljada drugih blogova.

So the more you block it,

Tako da što ih više blokirate,

the more it emboldens people to actually avoid the censorship

više ohrabrujete ljude da izbegavaju cenzuru

and thus win in this cat-and-mouse game.

i samim tim pobede u ovoj igri mačke i miša.

So the only way to control this message

Jedini način da kontrolišete tu poruku

is actually to try to spin it

je tako što ćete da je spinujete

and accuse anyone who has written something critical

i optužite nekoga ko je napisao nešto kritično

of being, for example, a CIA agent.

da je, na primer, agent CIA.

And, again, this is happening quite often.

I, ponavljam, ovo se dešava prilično često.

Just to give you an example of how it works in China, for example.

Samo da vam dam primer kako to funkcioniše u Kini.

There was a big case in February 2009

Postojao je veliki slučaj u februaru 2009.

called "Elude the Cat."

koji se zvao: "Izbegni mačku".

And for those of you who didn't know, I'll just give a little summary.

Za vas koji niste znali, daću vam kratak uvid u to.

So what happened is that a 24-year-old man,

Desilo se da je 24-godišnji čovek,

a Chinese man, died in prison custody.

Kinez, umro u pritvoru.

And police said that it happened

Policija je rekla da se to desilo

because he was playing hide and seek,

jer je igrao žmurke

which is "elude the cat" in Chinese slang,

što se kaže "izbegni mačku" u kineskom žargonu,

with other inmates and hit his head

sa drugim zatvorenicima i udario glavu

against the wall,

u zid,

which was not an explanation which sat well with many Chinese bloggers.

što je objašnjenje koje se nije baš svidelo mnogim kineskim blogerima.

So they immediately began posting a lot of critical comments.

Tako da su odmah počeli da ostavljaju gomilu kritičnih komentara.

In fact, QQ.com, which is a popular Chinese website,

Zapravo, QQ.com, popularni kineski sajt,

had 35,000 comments

je imao 35 000 komentara

on this issue within hours.

na ovu temu za nekoliko sati.

But then authorities did something very smart.

A onda su vlasti uradile nešto veoma pametno.

Instead of trying to purge these comments,

Umesto pročišćavanja ovih komentara,

they instead went and reached out to the bloggers.

oni su se obratili blogerima.

And they basically said, "Look guys. We'd like you to become netizen investigators."

U suštini su rekli: "Gledajte momci. Želeli bismo da postanete istražitelji preko neta."

So 500 people applied,

Prijavilo se 500 ljudi

and four were selected to actually go and tour the facility in question,

i njih četvoro je izabrano da zaista idu i ispituju po objektu

and thus inspect it and then blog about it.

i samim tim ga pregledaju, a zatim bloguju o tome.

Within days the entire incident was forgotten,

Za nekoliko dana incident je zaboravljen,

which would have never happened if they simply tried to block the content.

što se nikad ne bi desilo da su oni jednostavno pokušali da blokiraju sadržaj.

People would keep talking about it for weeks.

Ljudi bi govorili o ovome nedeljama.

And this actually fits with another interesting theory

A ovo se slaže sa još jednom zanimljivom teorijom

about what's happening in authoritarian states

o tome šta se dešava u autoritativnim državama

and in their cyberspace.

i njihovom sajberprostoru.

This is what political scientists call authoritarian deliberation,

To je ono što politikolozi zovu autoritativno razmatranje,

and it happens when governments are actually reaching out to their critics

i dešava se kada vlade pokušavaju da dopru do svojih kritičara

and letting them engage with each other online.

i puštaju ih da se angažuju sa drugima onlajn.

We tend to think

Skloni smo razmišljanju

that somehow this is going to harm these dictatorships,

da će ovo nekako da šteti ovim diktaturama,

but in many cases it only strengthens them.

ali ih u mnogo slučajeva ojača.

And you may wonder why.

Možda se pitate zašto.

I'll just give you a very short list of reasons

Daću vam veoma kratkak spisak razloga

why authoritarian deliberation

zašto autoritativno razmatranje

may actually help the dictators.

može zapravo da pomogne diktatorima.

And first it's quite simple.

Prvo je prilično jednostavno.

Most of them operate in a complete information vacuum.

Mnogi od njih rade u potpunom informacionom vakuumu.

They don't really have the data they need

Oni zapravo nemaju podatke koji su im potrebni

in order to identify emerging threats facing the regime.

da bi prepoznali narastajuće pretnje režimu.

So encouraging people to actually go online

Zato ohrabrivanje ljudi da budu onlajn

and share information and data

i dele informacije i podatke

on blogs and wikis is great

na blogovima i wikijima je sjajno

because otherwise, low level apparatchiks and bureaucrats

jer u suprotnom, osrednje birokrate

will continue concealing what's actually happening in the country, right?

će nastaviti da prikrivaju šta se stvarno dešava u državi, u redu?

So from this perspective, having blogs and wikis

Zato iz ove perspektive, imati blogove i wikije

produce knowledge has been great.

koji proizvode znanje je bilo sjajno.

Secondly, involving public in any decision making

Drugo, uključivanje javnosti u donošenje odluka

is also great

je takođe sjajno

because it helps you to share the blame

jer vam pomaže da podelite krivicu

for the policies which eventually fail.

za politiku koja će na kraju propasti.

Because they say, "Well look, we asked you,

Zato što kažu: "Pa vidite, pitali smo vas,

we consulted you, you voted on it.

konsultovali se sa vama, glasali ste za to.

You put it on the front page of your blog.

Stavili ste ga na naslavnu stranu bloga.

Well, great. You are the one who is to blame."

Pa, divno. VI ste ti koje treba kriviti."

And finally, the purpose of

I konačno, svrha

any authoritarian deliberation efforts

bilo kog autoritativnog razmatranja

is usually to increase the legitimacy of the regimes, both at home and abroad.

je uglavnom da poveća legitimnost režima, kod kuće i u inostranstvu.

So inviting people to all sorts of public forums,

Stoga pozivanje ljudi na bilo koju vrstu javnog foruma,

having them participate in decision making,

njihovo učestvovanje u donošenju odluka,

it's actually great.

je zapravo sjajno.

Because what happens is that then

Jer ono što se dešava tada je da

you can actually point to this initiative and say,

možete ukazati na ovu inicijativu i reći:

"Well, we are having a democracy. We are having a forum."

"Pa, imamo demokratiju. Imamo forum."

Just to give you an example,

Čisto da vam dam primer,

one of the Russian regions, for example,

jedan od ruskih regiona, recimo,

now involves its citizens

sada uključuje svoje građane

in planning its strategy up until year 2020.

u donošenje strategije do 2020. godine.

Right? So they can go online

Tako da oni mogu da budu online

and contribute ideas on what that region would look like by the year 2020.

i doprinose idejama kako bi region trebao da izgleda do 2020. godine.

I mean, anyone who has been to Russia would know

Mislim, svako ko je bio u Rusiji zna

that there was no planning in Russia for the next month.

da u Rusiji nije bilo planiranja za naredni mesec.

So having people involved in planning for 2020

Tako da uključivanje ljudi u planiranje za 2020.

is not necessarily going to change anything,

neće nužno da promeni bilo šta,

because the dictators are still the ones who control the agenda.

jer su diktatori i dalje ti koji kontrolišu dnevni red.

Just to give you an example from Iran,

Čisto da vam dam primer iz Irana,

we all heard about the Twitter revolution

Svi smo čuli za Twitter revoluciju

that happened there,

koja se tamo dogodila,

but if you look close enough, you'll actually see

ali ako dobro pogledate, zapravo ćete videti

that many of the networks and blogs

da mnoge od ovih mreža i blogova

and Twitter and Facebook were actually operational.

i Twitter i Facebook su zapravo bili funkcionalni.

They may have become slower,

Možda su postali sporiji,

but the activists could still access it

ali aktivisti i dalje mogu da im pristupe

and actually argue that having access to them

i tvrde da imati pristup njima

is actually great for many authoritarian states.

je odlično za mnoge autoritativne države.

And it's great simply because

A odlično je čisto jer

they can gather open source intelligence.

mogu da sakupe otvorenu inteligenciju.

In the past it would take you weeks, if not months,

U prošlosti bi vam trebale nedelje, ako ne i meseci,

to identify how Iranian activists connect to each other.

da utvrdite kako se povezuju iranski aktivisti jedni sa drugima.

Now you actually know how they connect to each other

Sada zaista znate kako se povezuju

by looking at their Facebook page.

gledanjem njihovih Facebook profila.

I mean KGB, and not just KGB,

Mislim KGB, i ne samo KGB,

used to torture in order to actually get this data.

je mučio u cilju dobijanja ovih podataka.

Now it's all available online.

Sada je dostupno onlajn.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But I think the biggest conceptual pitfall

Ali ja mislim da je najveća konceptualna zamka

that cybertopians made

koju su sajberutopisti napravili

is when it comes to digital natives, people who have grown up online.

je ona koja se tiče digitalnih urođenika, ljudi koji su odrasli onlajn.

We often hear about cyber activism,

Često slušamo o sajber aktivizmu,

how people are getting more active because of the Internet.

kako su ljudi aktivniji zahvaljujući internetu.

Rarely hear about cyber hedonism, for example,

Ređe slušamo o sajber hedonizmu, na primer,

how people are becoming passive.

kako ljudi postaju pasivni.

Why? Because they somehow assume that the Internet

Zašto? Zato što oni nekako pretpostavljaju da će internet

is going to be the catalyst of change

biti katalizator promene

that will push young people into the streets,

koji će da pogura mlade ljude na ulicu,

while in fact it may actually be the new opium for the masses

dok zapravo može biti novi opijum za mase

which will keep the same people in their rooms downloading pornography.

koji će držati te iste ljude u svojim sobama skidajući pornografiju.

That's not an option being considered too strongly.

Ta opcija nije dovoljno razmatrana.

So for every digital renegade that is revolting in the streets of Tehran,

Zato za svakog digitalnog otpadnika koji se pobunjuje na ulicama Teherana,

there may as well be two digital captives

isto tako može biti 2 digitalna zarobljenika

who are actually rebelling only in the World of Warcraft.

koji se pobunjuju jedino u World of Warcraft.

And this is realistic. And there is nothing wrong about it

I ovo je realnost. Ništa nije pogrešno u vezi s tim

because the Internet has greatly empowered many of these young people

jer je internet osnažio mnoge od ovih mladih ljudi

and it plays a completely different social role for them.

i igra potpuno drugačiju društvenu ulogu za njih.

If you look at some of the surveys

Ako gledate neka ispitivanja

on how the young people actually benefit from the Internet,

o tome kako mladi zapravo profitiraju od interneta,

you'll see that the number of teenagers in China, for example,

videćete da broj tinejdžera u Kini, na primer,

for whom the Internet actually broadens their sex life,

za koje internet zapravo obogaćuje njihov seksualni zivot,

is three times more than in the United States.

je tri puta veći nego u Sjedinjenim Državama.

So it does play a social role,

Stoga on ima i socijalnu ulogu,

however it may not necessarily lead to political engagement.

međutim to nužno ne mora da vodi političkom angažovanju.

So the way I tend to think of it

Zato na to mislim

is like a hierarchy of cyber-needs in space,

kao na hijerarhiju sajber potreba u svemiru,

a total rip-off from Abraham Maslow.

potpuni preokret od Abrahama Maslova.

But the point here is that

Poenta ovde je da

when we get the remote Russian village online,

kada dobijemo udaljeno rusko selo onlajn,

what will get people to the Internet

ono što će privući ljude na internet

is not going to be the reports from Human Rights Watch.

neće biti izveštaj Čuvara ljudskih prava.

It's going to be pornography, "Sex and the City,"

Biće pornografija, "Seks i grad"

or maybe watching funny videos of cats.

ili možda gledanje smešnih videa mačaka.

So this is something you have to recognize.

Zato je ovo nešto što morate da prepoznate.

So what should we do about it?

Šta bi trebalo da radimo povodom toga?

Well I say we have to stop thinking

Pa, ja kažem da moramo da prestanemo da razmišljamo

about the number of iPods per capita

o broju iPodova po glavi stanovnika

and start thinking about ways in which

i da počnemo da razmišljamo o načinima na koje

we can empower intellectuals,

možemo da osnažimo intelektualce,

dissidents, NGOs and then the members of civil society.

disidente, nevladine organizacije i članove civilnog društva.

Because even what has been happening up 'til now

Jer uprkos tome što se dešavalo do sada

with the Spinternet and authoritarian deliberation,

sa Spinternetom i autoritativnim razmatranjem,

there is a great chance that those voices will not be heard.

postoji velika šansa da se ti glasovi neće čuti.

So I think we should shatter some of our utopian assumptions

Zato mislim da treba da odbacimo neke od naših utopijskih pretpostavki

and actually start doing something about it.

i zaista počnemo da radimo nesto povodom toga.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)