Paddy Ashdown: The global power shift

139,545 views ・ 2012-01-05

TED


Ju lutemi, klikoni dy herë mbi titrat në anglisht më poshtë për të luajtur videon.

Translator: Ereblir Kadriu Reviewer: Helena Bedalli
00:15
There's a poem written
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Eshte nje e poem e shkruar
00:17
by a very famous English poet
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nga nje poet i famshem anglez
00:19
at the end of the 19th century.
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ne fund te shekullit 19.
00:21
It was said to echo in Churchill's brain
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U tha për të jehuar në trurin e Churchillit
00:24
in the 1930s.
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ne 1930.
00:26
And the poem goes:
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Dhe poema thote:
00:28
"On the idle hill of summer,
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" Në kodrën e qete të verës,
00:30
lazy with the flow of streams,
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zvarritur me rrjedhen e lumenjeve,
00:32
hark I hear a distant drummer,
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sërish unë dëgjoj një daullexhi të largët
00:34
drumming like a sound in dreams,
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gumezhin si nje tingull ne enderra,
00:36
far and near and low and louder on the roads of earth go by,
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larg dhe afer dhe ulte dhe lart ne rruget e tokes
00:39
dear to friend and food to powder,
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i dashur per shoke dhe ushqim per pluhur
00:42
soldiers marching,
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ushtaret marshojne,
00:44
soon to die."
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se shpejti per te vdekur."
00:46
Those who are interested in poetry,
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Ata qe jane te interesur ne poezi
00:48
the poem is "A Shropshire Lad" written by A.E. Housman.
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poema eshte " A Shropshire Lad" e shkruar nga A.E Housman.
00:51
But what Housman understood,
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Por cka kuptoj Housman,
00:53
and you hear it in the symphonies of Nielsen too,
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dhe ju e degjoni ate ne simfonite e Nielsen gjithashtu,
00:57
was that the long, hot, silvan summers
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ishte vere e gjate, e nxehte
01:01
of stability of the 19th century
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e stabilitetit te shekullit te 19
01:03
were coming to a close,
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ne jemi duke u afruar shume,
01:05
and that we were about to move
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dhe ne ishim gati per te levizur
01:07
into one of those terrifying periods of history
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ne ato faza tmerruese te historise
01:09
when power changes.
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ku pushteti ndryshon.
01:11
And these are always periods, ladies and gentlemen,
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Dhe keto jane gjithmone faza, zonja dhe zotrinj,
01:13
accompanied by turbulence,
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te percjellura nga turbullirat,
01:16
and all too often by blood.
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dhe shume shpesh me gjak.
01:18
And my message for you
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Dhe mesazhi im per ju
01:20
is that I believe we are condemned, if you like,
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eshte se une besoj ne jemi te denuar,
01:22
to live at just one of those moments in history
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për të jetuar vetëm ne një nga ato momente në histori
01:25
when the gimbals upon which
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ku pajisjet qe mbajne gjera ne pozicion me te cilat
01:27
the established order of power is beginning to change
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zhvillimi i rregullt i pushtetit eshte duke filluar te ndryshoje
01:30
and the new look of the world,
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dhe pamja e re e botes,
01:32
the new powers that exist in the world,
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pushtetet te reja qe ekzistojne ne bote,
01:35
are beginning to take form.
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jane duke filluar te marrin forme.
01:37
And these are -- and we see it very clearly today --
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Dhe keto jane--e shohim ate shume qarte sot--
01:40
nearly always highly turbulent times, highly difficult times,
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gati cdo here kohera shume te trubullta, shume te veshtira,
01:43
and all too often very bloody times.
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dhe shume shpesh kohera te pergjakshme.
01:45
By the way, it happens about once every century.
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Me qe ra fjala, ndodh rreth nje here ne cdo shekull.
01:48
You might argue that the last time it happened --
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Ju mund te argumentoni se heren e fundit ka ndodhur--
01:50
and that's what Housman felt coming and what Churchill felt too --
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dhe kjo eshte cka ndjeu Housman dhe cka ndjeu Churchill gjithashtu--
01:53
was that when power passed from the old nations,
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ishte kjo kur pushteti kaloj nga kombet e vjetra,
01:56
the old powers of Europe,
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fuqite e vjetra te Europes
01:58
across the Atlantic to the new emerging power
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permes Atlantikut me pushtetin e ri zhvillues
02:00
of the United States of America --
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te Shteteve te Bashkuara te Amerikes--
02:02
the beginning of the American century.
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fillimi i shekullit amerikan.
02:04
And of course, into the vacuum
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Dhe sigurisht, ne vakum
02:06
where the too-old European powers used to be
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ku fuqite e vjetra europiane ishin
02:09
were played the two bloody catastrophes
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ne veprim ne dy katastofat e pergjakshme
02:12
of the last century --
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te shekullit te fundit--
02:14
the one in the first part and the one in the second part: the two great World Wars.
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njera ne pjesen e pare dhe tjetra ne pjesen e dyte: dy Lufterat e medha Boterore.
02:17
Mao Zedong used to refer to them as the European civil wars,
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Mao Cedun u referohej atyre si luftera europiane,
02:20
and it's probably a more accurate way of describing them.
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dhe ndoshta eshte menyre me e sigurte e pershkrimit te tyre.
02:23
Well, ladies and gentlemen,
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Mire, zonja dhe zotrinj,
02:25
we live at one of those times.
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ne jetojme e njeren prej ketyre koherave.
02:27
But for us, I want to talk about three factors today.
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Por per neve, dua te flas sot per tre faktore.
02:30
And the first of these, the first two of these,
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Dhe i pari nga keta, dy te paret nga keta.
02:33
is about a shift in power.
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eshte rreth ndryshimit te pushtetit.
02:35
And the second is about some new dimension which I want to refer to,
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Dhe e dyta eshte per disa dimenzione te reja ne cilat do te referohesha,
02:38
which has never quite happened in the way it's happening now.
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qe nuk ka ndodhur ne menyre se si eshte duke ndodhur tani.
02:41
But let's talk about the shifts of power that are occurring to the world.
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Por le te flasim per ndryshimet te pushteteve qe jane duke i ndodhur botes.
02:44
And what is happening today
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Dhe cka eshte duke ndodhur sot
02:46
is, in one sense, frightening
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eshte ne njefare menyre, frikesuese
02:48
because it's never happened before.
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sepse nuk ka ndodhur kurre me pare.
02:51
We have seen lateral shifts of power --
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Ne kemi parë ndryshime anësore të pushtetit -
02:53
the power of Greece passed to Rome
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pushteti i Greqise kaloi te Roma
02:56
and the power shifts that occurred
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dhe ndryshimet e pushteve qe ndodhen
02:58
during the European civilizations --
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gjate civilizimit europian--
03:01
but we are seeing something slightly different.
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por ne jemi duke pare dicka jo shume ndryshe.
03:03
For power is not just moving laterally
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Për pushtet nuk është vetëm qe te leviz anash
03:05
from nation to nation.
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prej nje shteti ne tjettrin.
03:07
It's also moving vertically.
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Gjithashtu edhte duke levizur vertikalisht.
03:09
What's happening today is that the power that was encased,
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Cka eshte duke ndodhur sot eshte se pushteti qe ishte mbeshtjelle,
03:12
held to accountability, held to the rule of law,
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qe eshte mbajtur me pergjegjesi, mbajtur me sundim te ligjit
03:15
within the institution of the nation state
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brenda institucioneve te kombit te shtetit
03:18
has now migrated in very large measure onto the global stage.
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tani ka emigruar në masë shumë të madhe në fazë globale.
03:21
The globalization of power --
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Globalizimi i pushtetit--
03:23
we talk about the globalization of markets,
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ne flasim per globalizimin e tregjeve,
03:25
but actually it's the globalization of real power.
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por faktikisht eshte globalizimi i pushtetit te vertete.
03:29
And where, at the nation state level
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Dhe ku, ne nivel te shtetit kombetar
03:31
that power is held to accountability
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ai pushtet eshte mbajtur nga pergjegjesia
03:33
subject to the rule of law,
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subjekt i sundimit të ligjit,
03:35
on the international stage it is not.
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ne shkallen nderkombtare nuk eshte.
03:38
The international stage and the global stage where power now resides:
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Shkalla nderkombetare dhe ajo globale ku pushteti tani rri:
03:41
the power of the Internet, the power of the satellite broadcasters,
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fuqinë e internetit, fuqia e transmetuesve satelitore,
03:44
the power of the money changers --
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fuqinë e këmbyesve të parave -
03:47
this vast money-go-round
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keto para te pa fundme sillen per rreth
03:49
that circulates now 32 times the amount of money necessary
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qe tani qarkullonjne 32 here ne shumen e nevojshme te parase
03:53
for the trade it's supposed to be there to finance --
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per tregtine supozohet te financohet
03:56
the money changers, if you like,
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kembyesit e parave, nese keni deshire,
03:58
the financial speculators
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afaristet finaciar
04:00
that have brought us all to our knees quite recently,
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qe na kane sjell ne gjunje se fundi,
04:03
the power of the multinational corporations
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fuqia e korporatave multinacionale
04:05
now developing budgets
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tani duke zhvilluar buxhetet
04:08
often bigger than medium-sized countries.
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shpesh vendet e medha me shume sesa ato me madhesi te mesme.
04:10
These live in a global space
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Keta jetojne ne hapersire globale
04:12
which is largely unregulated,
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e cila eshte kryesisht e parregulluar,
04:14
not subject to the rule of law,
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nuk i nënshtrohen sundimit të ligjit,
04:17
and in which people may act free of constraint.
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dhe në të cilën njerëzit mund të veprojë pa detyrim.
04:19
Now that suits the powerful
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Tani kjo i pershtatet
04:22
up to a moment.
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momentit te fuqishem.
04:24
It's always suitable for those who have the most power
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Gjithmone eshte e pershtatshme per ata te cilet kane fuqine me te madhe
04:27
to operate in spaces without constraint,
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për të operuar në hapësirat pa kufizim,
04:30
but the lesson of history is that, sooner or later,
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por mesimi i historise eshte se, heret ose vone,
04:33
unregulated space --
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hapersira e pa rregulluar--
04:35
space not subject to the rule of law --
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hapesira qe nuk i nenshtrohet sundimit te ligjit--
04:37
becomes populated, not just by the things you wanted --
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bëhet e populluar jo vetëm nga gjërat që ju kërkuat--
04:40
international trade, the Internet, etc. --
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tregtia nderkombtare, interneti, etj--
04:42
but also by the things you don't want --
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por gjithashtu nga gjerat qe ju nuk i deshironi--
04:44
international criminality, international terrorism.
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kriminaliteti nderkombtar, terrorizmi nderkombtar.
04:47
The revelation of 9/11
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Shpallja e 9/11
04:49
is that even if you are the most powerful nation on earth,
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eshte se edhe nese ju jeni shteti me i fuqishem ne toke,
04:54
nevertheless,
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megjithate,
04:57
those who inhabit that space can attack you
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ata që banojnë në këtë hapësirë ​​mund të ju sulmojnë
04:59
even in your most iconic of cities
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edhe ne qytetet me te kryesore,
05:01
one bright September morning.
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nje mengjes te kthjellte Shtatori.
05:03
It's said that something like 60 percent
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Thuhet se 60 perqind
05:05
of the four million dollars that was taken to fund 9/11
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e kater milion dollareve qe u perdoren per te financuar 9/11
05:08
actually passed through the institutions of the Twin Towers
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faktikisht kaluan nepermejt institucionit te Kullave Binjake
05:11
which 9/11 destroyed.
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te cilen 9/11 e shkatrroi.
05:13
You see, our enemies also use this space --
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E shihni, armiqte tane gjithashtu perdoren kete hapesire--
05:15
the space of mass travel, the Internet, satellite broadcasters --
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hapësirën e udhëtimit masiv, internetit, transmetuesit satelitor -
05:18
to be able to get around their poison,
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te jene ne gjendje te marrin me vete helmin e tyre,
05:21
which is about destroying our systems and our ways.
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i cili eshte per shaktrrimin e sistemeve tona dhe menyrave tona.
05:24
Sooner or later,
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Heret ose vone,
05:26
sooner or later,
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heret ose vone,
05:28
the rule of history
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parimi i historise
05:30
is that where power goes
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eshte se ku pushteti shkon
05:32
governance must follow.
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qeverisja duhet te ndjek.
05:35
And if it is therefore the case, as I believe it is,
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Dhe nese ky eshte rasti, pasi une besoj se eshte,
05:37
that one of the phenomenon of our time
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njeri nder fenomenet e kohes tone
05:39
is the globalization of power,
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eshte globalizimi i pushtetit,
05:41
then it follows that one of the challenges of our time
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atëherë ai vijon se një nga sfidat e kohës sonë
05:44
is to bring governance to the global space.
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eshte te sjellim qeverisjen ne hapsiren globale.
05:47
And I believe that the decades ahead of us now
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Dhe une besoj se dekadat para neve tani
05:50
will be to a greater or lesser extent turbulent
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do te jene trazira ne nje shkalle me te madhe ose me te vogel
05:54
the more or less we are able to achieve that aim:
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me shume ose me pak ne jemi ne gjendje te mbrrijme ate qellim:
05:57
to bring governance to the global space.
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per te djelle qeverisjen ne hapsirren globale.
05:59
Now notice, I'm not talking about government.
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Tani vreni, une nuk jame duke folur per qeverine.
06:01
I'm not talking about setting up
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Une nuk jam duke folur per vendosjen
06:03
some global democratic institution.
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e disa institucioneve demokratike globale.
06:06
My own view, by the way, ladies and gentlemen,
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Opinioni im, meqe ra fjala, zonja dhe zoteri,
06:08
is that this is unlikely to be done
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është se kjo nuk ka gjasa për t'u bërë
06:10
by spawning more U.N. institutions.
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duke hedhut veze me shume ne institucionet U.N.
06:12
If we didn't have the U.N., we'd have to invent it.
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Nese ne nuk e kishim pasur U.N, ne do te duhet te shpikim ate.
06:14
The world needs an international forum.
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Bota ka nevoje per nje forum internacional.
06:16
It needs a means by which you can legitimize international action.
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Ajo ka nevojë për një mjet me të cilën ju mund të legjitimoni veprimet ndërkombëtare.
06:20
But when it comes to governance of the global space,
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Por kur vije tek qeverisja e hapsires globale,
06:22
my guess is this won't happen
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supozimi im eshte kjo nuk do te ndodh
06:25
through the creation of more U.N. institutions.
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nepermjet krimit te me shume institucioneve U.N.
06:27
It will actually happen by the powerful coming together
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Faktikisht do te ndodh nga pushteti
06:30
and making treaty-based systems,
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dhe duke bere traktat te bazuar ne sisteme,
06:32
treaty-based agreements,
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marrveshje bazuar ne traktat,
06:34
to govern that global space.
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per te qeverisur ate hapesire globale.
06:36
And if you look, you can see them happening, already beginning to emerge.
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Dhe në qoftë se ju shikoni, ju mund të shihni ato te ndodhin, duke filluar të shfaqen tashmë.
06:39
The World Trade Organization: treaty-based organization,
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Organizata e Tregtise Boterore: traktat bazuar neorganizate,
06:42
entirely treaty-based,
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krejtsisht traktat bazuar ne marreveshje,
06:44
and yet, powerful enough to hold even the most powerful, the United States,
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dhe ende, mjaft e fuqishëme për të mbajtur edhe më të fuqishme, Shtetet e Bashkuara
06:47
to account if necessary.
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per te llogaritut nese eshte e nevojshme.
06:49
Kyoto: the beginnings of struggling to create
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Kyoto: fillimet e luftimit per te krijuar
06:51
a treaty-based organization.
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nje traktat bazur ne organizate.
06:53
The G20:
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G20:
06:55
we know now that we have to put together an institution
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ne dime tani se ne duhet te vendosim se bashku nje institucion
06:57
which is capable of bringing governance
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i cili eshte ne gjendje te sjell qeverisje
06:59
to that financial space for financial speculation.
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hapsires financiare per spekulime financiare.
07:02
And that's what the G20 is, a treaty-based institution.
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Dhe kjo eshte cka G20 eshte, nje traktat bazur ne instiucione
07:05
Now there's a problem there,
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Tani eshte nje problem aty,
07:07
and we'll come back to it in a minute,
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dhe ne do te kthehemi perseri per nje minute,
07:09
which is that if you bring the most powerful together
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gje qe eshte nese ju sjellni me te fuqishmit se bashku
07:12
to make the rules in treaty-based institutions,
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per te bere rregullat ne traktate te bazuar ne institucione,
07:14
to fill that governance space,
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per te mbushur ate hapesire te qeverisjes,
07:17
then what happens to the weak who are left out?
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pastaj cka i ndodh te dobetve te cilet jane lene jashte?
07:20
And that's a big problem,
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Dhe ky eshte nje problem i madh,
07:22
and we'll return to it in just a second.
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dhe ne do te kthehemi aty ne nje sekonde.
07:24
So there's my first message,
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Keshtu, ja ku eshte mesazhi im i pare,
07:26
that if you are to pass through these turbulent times
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qe nese jeni duke kaluar nepermjet ketyre koherave te trazuara
07:29
more or less turbulently,
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me shume ose me pak trazueze
07:32
then our success in doing that
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pastaj suksesi yne ne berjen e saj
07:34
will in large measure depend on our capacity
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në masë të madhe do të varet nga kapacitetet tona
07:36
to bring sensible governance
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per te sjelle qeverisje te arsyeshme
07:38
to the global space.
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te hapsires globale.
07:40
And watch that beginning to happen.
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Dhe shikoni ate duke filluar te ndodhe.
07:43
My second point is,
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Qellimi im i dyte eshte,
07:45
and I know I don't have to talk to an audience like this
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dhe une e di une nuk duhet te flas per nje audience sikur kjo
07:47
about such a thing,
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per nje gje te tille,
07:49
but power is not just shifting vertically,
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por pushtetit nuk eshte vetem tek zhvendosja vertikale,
07:52
it's also shifting horizontally.
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gjithashtu eshte zhvendosje horizontale.
07:54
You might argue that the story, the history of civilizations,
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Ju mund te argumentoni se historia, historia e civilizimit,
07:57
has been civilizations gathered around seas --
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ka civilizime te mbledhura rreth detrave--
08:00
with the first ones around the Mediterranean,
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me ato te parat rreth Mesdheut,
08:03
the more recent ones in the ascendents of Western power around the Atlantic.
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ato më të fundit me prejardhje nga fuqia perëndimore rreth Atlantikut.
08:07
Well it seems to me
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Mire me duket mua
08:09
that we're now seeing a fundamental shift of power, broadly speaking,
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se ne jemi duke pare nje zhvendosje rrenjesore e fuqise,
08:12
away from nations gathered around the Atlantic [seaboard]
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larg nga kombet te mbledhura rreth Atlantikut
08:15
to the nations gathered around the Pacific rim.
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tek kombet e mbledhura rreth Pacifikut.
08:17
Now that begins with economic power,
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Tani kjo fillon me fuqi ekonomike,
08:19
but that's the way it always begins.
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por kjo eshte menyra qe cdo here fillon.
08:21
You already begin to see the development of foreign policies,
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Ju tashmë filluat të shihni zhvillimin e politikave të huaja,
08:24
the augmentation of military budgets
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rritja e buxheteve ushtarake
08:26
occurring in the other growing powers in the world.
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ndodh ne fuqi tjera te botes.
08:29
I think actually
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Ne fakt un mendoj
08:31
this is not so much a shift from the West to the East;
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nuk eshte edhe aq zhvendosje nga Perendimi ne Lindje;
08:33
something different is happening.
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dicka ndryshe eshte duke ndodhur.
08:35
My guess is, for what it's worth,
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Mendimi im eshte se
08:37
is that the United States will remain
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Shtetet e Bashkuara do te mbesin
08:39
the most powerful nation on earth
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kombi me i fuqishem ne rruzullin tokesor
08:41
for the next 10 years, 15,
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per 10, 15 vitet e ardhshme,
08:44
but the context in which she holds her power
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por konteksti ne te cilen ajo e mban pushtetin
08:47
has now radically altered; it has radically changed.
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tani ka ndryshuar rrënjësisht, ajo ka ndryshuar rrënjësisht.
08:50
We are coming out of 50 years,
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Ne jemi duke ardhur tek vitet e 50-ta,
08:52
most unusual years, of history
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vitet me jo te zakonshme te historise
08:54
in which we have had a totally mono-polar world,
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ne te cilen ne kemi pasur nje bote mono-polare,
08:57
in which every compass needle
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ne te cilen cdo gjilpere e busulles
08:59
for or against
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per apo kunder
09:01
has to be referenced by its position to Washington --
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duhet të referohej nga pozicioni i saj në Uashington -
09:04
a world bestrode by a single colossus.
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një botë të shkatërruar nga një kolos i vetëm.
09:08
But that's not a usual case in history.
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Por ky nuk eshte rast i zakonshem ne histori.
09:10
In fact, what's now emerging
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Ne fakt, cka eshte duke u shfaqur tani
09:12
is the much more normal case of history.
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eshte rast shume me normal i historise.
09:14
You're beginning to see the emergence
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Ju keni filluar te shihni shfaqjen
09:16
of a multi-polar world.
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e botes multipolare.
09:18
Up until now,
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Deri me tani,
09:20
the United States has been the dominant feature of our world.
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Shtetet e Bashkuara ka qene tipar dominues i botes tone.
09:23
They will remain the most powerful nation,
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Ata do te mbesin kombi me i fuqishem,
09:25
but they will be the most powerful nation
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por ata do te jene kombi me i fuqishem
09:27
in an increasingly multi-polar world.
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ne nje bote gjithnje e me multipolare.
09:29
And you begin to see the alternative centers of power building up --
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Dhe ju filloni te shihni qendrat alternative të pushtetit ndërtimues-
09:32
in China, of course,
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ne Kine, sigurisht,
09:34
though my own guess is that China's ascent to greatness is not smooth.
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edhe pse mendimi im eshte se ngjitja e Kines ne lartesi nuk eshte e lehte.
09:37
It's going to be quite grumpy
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Do te jete mjaft i ashper
09:39
as China begins to democratize her society
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pasiqe Kina fillon te demokratizoje shoqerine e saj
09:41
after liberalizing her economy.
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pas liberalizimit te ekonomise se saj
09:43
But that's a subject of a different discussion.
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Por kjo eshte nje teme e nje diskutimi tjeter.
09:46
You see India, you see Brazil.
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Ju e shihnin Indine, ju e shihni Brazilin.
09:48
You see increasingly
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Ju e shihni gjithnje e me shume
09:50
that the world now looks actually, for us Europeans,
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se bota tani faktikisht per ne Europianet duket
09:53
much more like Europe in the 19th century.
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shume me shume sikur Europa ne shekullin e 19.
09:56
Europe in the 19th century:
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Europa ne shekullin e 19:
09:58
a great British foreign secretary, Lord Canning,
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nje sekretar i jashtem Britanik, Lordi Canning,
10:00
used to describe it as the "European concert of powers."
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e pershkruante ate si " Koncerti Europian i Fuqive."
10:03
There was a balance, a five-sided balance.
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Ishte nje bilanc, nje bilanc pese-anesh.
10:05
Britain always played to the balance.
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Britania gjithmone ka luajtur me bilancin
10:08
If Paris got together with Berlin,
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Nese Parisi bashkohej me Berlinin,
10:10
Britain got together with Vienna and Rome to provide a counterbalance.
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Britania bashkohej me Vienen dhe Romen per te siguruar balancim.
10:13
Now notice,
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Tani vereni,
10:15
in a period which is dominated by a mono-polar world,
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ne nje periudhe e cila eshte e dominuar nga bota mono-polare,
10:17
you have fixed alliances --
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ju keni rregullar aleatet--
10:19
NATO, the Warsaw Pact.
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NATO, Pakti i Varshaves.
10:21
A fixed polarity of power
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Një polarizim i caktuar i pushtetit
10:23
means fixed alliances.
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do te thote aleanca te caktuara.
10:25
But a multiple polarity of power
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Por nje polarizim i shumfishte i pushtetit
10:27
means shifting and changing alliances.
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do te thote zhvendosje dhe ndryshim i aleateve.
10:29
And that's the world we're coming into,
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Dhe kjo eshte bota qe jemi duke hyre,
10:31
in which we will increasingly see
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ne te cilen ne do te shohim gjithnje e me shume
10:33
that our alliances are not fixed.
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qe aleatet tone nuk jane te caktuar.
10:35
Canning, the great British foreign secretary once said,
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Canning, sekretary i jashtem Britanik nje here tha,
10:37
"Britain has a common interest,
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" Britania ka nje interes te perbashket,
10:39
but no common allies."
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po jo aleat te perbashket."
10:41
And we will see increasingly
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Dhe ne do te shohim gjithnje e me shume
10:43
that even we in the West
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se madje ne ne Perendim
10:45
will reach out, have to reach out,
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do te mbrrim, duhet te mbrrim,
10:47
beyond the cozy circle of the Atlantic powers
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përtej rrethit rehatshëm e fuqive të Atlantikut
10:49
to make alliances with others
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te bejme aleance me te tjeret
10:51
if we want to get things done in the world.
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nese duam te perfundojme gjerat ne bote.
10:54
Note, that when we went into Libya,
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Permend se kur ne shkuam ne Libi,
10:56
it was not good enough for the West to do it alone;
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kjo nuk ishte aq e mirë për Perëndimin për të bërë atë vetëm;
10:58
we had to bring others in.
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ne u desht qe te sjellin te tjere.
11:00
We had to bring, in this case, the Arab League in.
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Ne u desht te sjellin ne kete rast, Shoqaten Arabe.
11:03
My guess is Iraq and Afghanistan are the last times
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Mendimi im eshte Iraku dhe Afganistani koheve te fundit
11:06
when the West has tried to do it themselves,
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kur Perendimi ka provuar ta beje ate vetem,
11:08
and we haven't succeeded.
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dhe ne nuk kemi patur sukses.
11:10
My guess
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Mendimi im
11:12
is that we're reaching the beginning of the end of 400 years --
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eshte se ne jemi duke arritur fillimin e fundit te 400 viteve--
11:15
I say 400 years because it's the end of the Ottoman Empire --
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E them 400 vjet, sepse ky është fundi i Perandorisë Osmane -
11:18
of the hegemony of Western power,
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te dominimit te pushtetit Perendimor,
11:20
Western institutions and Western values.
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institucioneve Perendimore dhe vlerave Perendimore.
11:24
You know, up until now, if the West got its act together,
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E dini, deri me sot, nese Perendimi i beri akcionet se bashku,
11:27
it could propose and dispose
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mund te propozoje dhe rregulloj
11:29
in every corner of the world.
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ne cdo qosh te botes.
11:31
But that's no longer true.
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Por kjo nuk eshte me e vertete.
11:33
Take the last financial crisis
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Shikoni krizat e fundit finaciare
11:35
after the Second World War.
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pas Luftes se Dyte Boterore.
11:37
The West got together --
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Perendimi u bashkua--
11:39
the Bretton Woods Institution, World Bank, International Monetary Fund --
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Institucioni Bretton Woods, Banka Botërore, Fondi Monetar Ndërkombëtar -
11:42
the problem solved.
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problemi u zgjidh.
11:44
Now we have to call in others.
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Tani ne duhet te therrasim te tjeret.
11:46
Now we have to create the G20.
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Tani duhet te krijojme G20.
11:48
Now we have to reach beyond the cozy circle
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Tani ne duhet te arrijme pertej rrethit te rehatshem
11:50
of our Western friends.
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te shokeve tane Perendimor.
11:52
Let me make a prediction for you,
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Me lejoni te bej nje parashikim per ju,
11:54
which is probably even more startling.
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i cili ndoshta eshte madje me befasues.
11:57
I suspect we are now reaching the end
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Une dyshoj se ne jemi duke arritur fundin
12:00
of 400 years
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e 400 viteve
12:02
when Western power was enough.
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kur pushteti Perendimor ishte i mjaftushem.
12:04
People say to me, "The Chinese, of course,
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Njerezit me thone mua, " Kinezet, sigurisht,
12:06
they'll never get themselves involved
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ata kurre nuk do te fusin veten e tyre
12:08
in peace-making, multilateral peace-making around the world."
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ne krijimin e paqes, krijimin e paqes shumepaleshe perreth botes."
12:10
Oh yes? Why not?
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Oh po? Pse jo?
12:12
How many Chinese troops
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Sa trupa Kineze
12:14
are serving under the blue beret, serving under the blue flag,
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sherbejne nen bereten e kalter, duke sherbyer nen flamurin e kalter
12:16
serving under the U.N. command in the world today?
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duke sherbyer nen komanden e U.N. ne boten sot?
12:18
3,700.
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3.700.
12:20
How many Americans? 11.
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Sa Amerikan? 11.
12:23
What is the largest naval contingent
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Cili është kontigjenti më i madh detar
12:25
tackling the issue of Somali pirates?
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qe trajton ceshtjen e pirateve Somalez?
12:28
The Chinese naval contingent.
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Kontingjenti detar Kinez.
12:30
Of course they are, they are a mercantilist nation.
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Sigurisht ata jane komb merkantiliste.
12:32
They want to keep the sea lanes open.
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Ata deshirojne te mbajne linjat e detit te hapura.
12:34
Increasingly, we are going to have to do business
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Gjithnje e me shume, ne do te kemi pune
12:37
with people with whom we do not share values,
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me njerez me te cilet ne nuk ndajme vlera,
12:40
but with whom, for the moment, we share common interests.
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por me ke, per momentin, ne ndajme interesa te perbashketa.
12:43
It's a whole new different way
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Eshte nje menyre krejtsisht e re
12:45
of looking at the world that is now emerging.
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e te shikuarit boten qe tani eshte duke u shfaqur.
12:48
And here's the third factor,
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Dhe ja ku eshte faktori i trete,
12:50
which is totally different.
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i cili eshte krejtsisht ndryshe.
12:53
Today in our modern world,
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Sot ne boten tone moderne,
12:55
because of the Internet,
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per shkak te internetit.
12:57
because of the kinds of things people have been talking about here,
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për shkak të llojeve të gjërave që njerëzit kanë folur këtu
13:00
everything is connected to everything.
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gjithcka eshte e lidhur me gjithcka.
13:04
We are now interdependent.
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Ne tani jemi te ndervarur.
13:06
We are now interlocked,
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Ne tani jemi te kombinuar,
13:08
as nations, as individuals,
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si kombe, si individ
13:10
in a way which has never been the case before,
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në një mënyrë që nuk ka ndodhur më parë,
13:12
never been the case before.
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kurre nuk ka ndodhur me pare.
13:15
The interrelationship of nations,
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Raporti reciprok i kombeve,
13:17
well it's always existed.
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gjithmone ka ekzistuar.
13:19
Diplomacy is about managing the interrelationship of nations.
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Diplomacia eshte rreth menaxhimit te raportit reciprok te kombeve.
13:22
But now we are intimately locked together.
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Por tani ne jemi lidhur ngushte sebashku.
13:24
You get swine flu in Mexico,
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Ju merrni gripin e derrit ne Meksike,
13:26
it's a problem for Charles de Gaulle Airport
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eshte problem i aeroportit Charles de Gaulle
13:28
24 hours later.
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24 ore me vone.
13:30
Lehman Brothers goes down, the whole lot collapses.
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Lehman Brothers bije poshte.
13:33
There are fires in the steppes of Russia,
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Ka zjarre ne stepa te Rusise,
13:36
food riots in Africa.
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trazira te ushqimit ne Afrike.
13:38
We are all now deeply, deeply, deeply interconnected.
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Te gjithe ne tani jemi, thellesisht, thellesisht te lidhur.
13:42
And what that means
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Dhe cka do te thote kjo
13:45
is the idea of a nation state acting alone,
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eshte idea e nje kombi shtetror qe vepron vetem
13:49
not connected with others,
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jo i lidhur me te tjeret,
13:51
not working with others,
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duke mos punuar me te tjeret,
13:53
is no longer a viable proposition.
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nuk është më një propozim praktik.
13:55
Because the actions of a nation state
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Sepse veprimet e nje kombi shtetror
13:58
are neither confined to itself,
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s'jane te mbylluara as per vetveten,
14:00
nor is it sufficient for the nation state itself
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as nuk është i mjaftueshëm për kombin shteteror
14:02
to control its own territory,
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per te kontrolluar territorin e vet
14:04
because the effects outside the nation state
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sepse efektet jashte kombit shteteror
14:07
are now beginning to affect what happens inside them.
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tani janë duke filluar të ndikojnë në atë që ndodh brenda tyre.
14:10
I was a young soldier
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Une isha nje ushtar i ri
14:12
in the last of the small empire wars of Britain.
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ne luftërat e fundit ne perandorinë e Britanisë.
14:16
At that time, the defense of my country
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Ne gjithen ate kohe, mbrojta e vendit tim
14:18
was about one thing and one thing only:
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ishte per nje gje dhe vetem per nje gje:
14:21
how strong was our army, how strong was our air force,
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sa e forte ishte ushtria jone, sa e forte ishte forca e jone ajore,
14:24
how strong was our navy and how strong were our allies.
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sa e forte ishte marina jone dhe sa te forte ishin aleatet tone.
14:26
That was when the enemy was outside the walls.
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Kjo ishte kur armiqte ishin jashte mureve.
14:28
Now the enemy is inside the walls.
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Tani armiku eshte mbrenda mureve.
14:31
Now if I want to talk about the defense of my country,
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Tani nese une dua te flas per mbrojtjen e vendit tim,
14:33
I have to speak to the Minister of Health
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Une duhet te flas me Ministërin e Shendetesise
14:35
because pandemic disease is a threat to my security,
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sepse semundja pandemike eshte nje kercenim per sigurine time,
14:38
I have to speak to the Minister of Agriculture
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Une duhet te flas me Ministërin e Bujqesise
14:40
because food security is a threat to my security,
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sepse siguria e ushqimit eshte nje kercenim per sigurine time,
14:42
I have to speak to the Minister of Industry
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Une duhet te flas me Ministërin e Industrise
14:46
because the fragility of our hi-tech infrastructure
360
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sepse dobesia e infrastuktures
14:49
is now a point of attack for our enemies --
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është tani një pikë e sulmit të armiqve tanë -
14:51
as we see from cyber warfare --
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sic ne shohim nga betejat e rrjetit komjuterik--
14:53
I have to speak to the Minister of Home Affairs
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Une duhet te flas me Ministrin e Puneve te Mbrendshme
14:56
because who has entered my country,
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sepse kush ka hyn ne vendin tim,
14:58
who lives in that terraced house in that inner city
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qe jeton në atë shtëpi me tarace në atë qytet
15:01
has a direct effect on what happens in my country --
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ka nje ndikim direkt se cka ndodh ne vendin tim--
15:03
as we in London saw in the 7/7 bombings.
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meqe jetojme ne Londer pash 7/7 bombardime.
15:07
It's no longer the case that the security of a country
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Nuk eshte akoma situata qe siguria e nje vendi
15:10
is simply a matter for its soldiers and its ministry of defense.
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eshte thjeshte nje ceshtje per ushtaret e saj dhe per ministrine e mbrojtjes
15:13
It's its capacity to lock together its institutions.
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Eshte kapaciteti i saj per te lidhur se bashku institucionet.
15:16
And this tells you something very important.
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Dhe kjo ju tregon diçka shumë te rëndësishme.
15:19
It tells you that, in fact,
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Ju tregon se, ne fakt
15:21
our governments, vertically constructed,
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qeverite tona, te ndertuara vertikalisht,
15:24
constructed on the economic model of the Industrial Revolution --
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ndërtuan në modelin ekonomik të revolucionit industrial -
15:26
vertical hierarchy, specialization of tasks,
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hierarki vertikale, specializimin e detyrave,
15:29
command structures --
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sturkturen e komandes--
15:31
have got the wrong structures completely.
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i kane strukturat e gabuara krejtsisht.
15:33
You in business know
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Ju ne biznes e dini
15:35
that the paradigm structure of our time, ladies and gentlemen,
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se struktura shembull e kohes tone, zonja dhe zoteri,
15:37
is the network.
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eshte rrjeti.
15:39
It's your capacity to network that matters,
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Eshte kapaciteti i juaj i rrjetit qe ka rendesi,
15:41
both within your governments and externally.
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si brenda qeverive tuaja dhe jashtë.
15:44
So here is Ashdown's third law.
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Pra ja ku eshte ligji i trete i Ashdown.
15:46
By the way, don't ask me about Ashdown's first law and second law
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Meqe ra fjala, mos me pyesni per ligjin e pare e dyte te Ashdown
15:49
because I haven't invented those yet;
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sepse nuk i kam shpikur ato tanime;
15:51
it always sounds better if there's a third law, doesn't it?
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gjithmonë tingëllon më mirë në qoftë se ka një ligj të tretë, apo jo?
15:53
Ashdown's third law is that in the modern age,
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Ligji i trete i Ashdown eshte se ne kohen moderne,
15:56
where everything is connected to everything,
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ku gjithcka eshte e lidhur me gjithcka,
15:58
the most important thing about what you can do
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gjeja me e rendesishme se cka mund te beni
16:01
is what you can do with others.
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eshte cka mund te beni me te jeret.
16:03
The most important bit about your structure --
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Pjesa me e rendesishme per strukturen tuaj--
16:05
whether you're a government, whether you're an army regiment,
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nëse ju jeni një qeveri, nëse ju jeni një regjiment ushtrie,
16:07
whether you're a business --
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nese ju jeni nje biznes--
16:09
is your docking points, your interconnectors,
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jane pikat e lidhjes suaj, interkonektoret tuaj,
16:11
your capacity to network with others.
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kapaciteti juaj te lidhen me te tjeret.
16:13
You understand that in industry;
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Ju e kuptoni se ne industri;
16:15
governments don't.
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qeverite nuk e bejne.
16:18
But now one final thing.
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Por tani nje gje te fundit.
16:20
If it is the case, ladies and gentlemen -- and it is --
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Nese eshte situata, zonja dhe zotrinjë---
16:23
that we are now locked together
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qe ne jemi te lidhur bashke
16:25
in a way that has never been quite the same before,
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ne nje menyre qe kurre nuk ka qene njejte si me pare,
16:27
then it's also the case that we share a destiny with each other.
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pastaj gjithashtu eshte rasti se ne ndajme fatin me njeri tjetrin.
16:31
Suddenly and for the very first time,
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Papritmas dhe per here te pare,
16:34
collective defense, the thing that has dominated us
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mbrojta kolektive, gjeja qe ka dominuar tek ne
16:37
as the concept of securing our nations,
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meqe koncepti i sigurimit të kombeve tona,
16:39
is no longer enough.
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nuk eshte e mjaftueshme.
16:41
It used to be the case
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Ka qene rasti
16:43
that if my tribe was more powerful than their tribe, I was safe;
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se në qoftë se fisi ime ishte më e fuqishem se fisi i tyre, unë isha i sigurt;
16:45
if my country was more powerful than their country, I was safe;
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nese vendi im ishte me i fuqishem sesa vendi i tyre, une isha i sigurt;
16:48
my alliance, like NATO, was more powerful than their alliance, I was safe.
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aleanca ime, si NATO, ishte me i fuqishem sesa alenaca e tyre, une isha i sigurt.
16:51
It is no longer the case.
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Nuk eshte ende rasti.
16:53
The advent of the interconnectedness
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Ardhja e nderlidhshmerise
16:56
and of the weapons of mass destruction
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dhe e armeve te shkarrimit te mases
16:58
means that, increasingly,
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do te thote se, gjithnje e me shume
17:00
I share a destiny with my enemy.
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une ndaj nje fat me armiqte e mi.
17:02
When I was a diplomat
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Ku isha diplomat
17:04
negotiating the disarmament treaties with the Soviet Union
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duke negociuar traktatet te çarmatimit me Bashkimin Sovjetik
17:07
in Geneva in the 1970s,
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ne Gjeneve ne 1970,
17:09
we succeeded because we understood
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ne patem sukses sespse ne kuptuam
17:11
we shared a destiny with them.
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qe ndame nje fat me ata.
17:13
Collective security is not enough.
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Siguria kolektive nuk eshte e mjaftushme.
17:16
Peace has come to Northern Ireland
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Paqja ka ardhur ne Irlanden Veriore
17:18
because both sides realized that the zero-sum game couldn't work.
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sepse te dy palet kuptuan se loja e shumatores zero nuk punonte.
17:21
They shared a destiny with their enemies.
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Ata ndane nje fat me armiqte e tyre.
17:24
One of the great barriers to peace in the Middle East
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Nje nder barierat me te medha te paqes ne Lindjen e Mesme
17:26
is that both sides, both Israel and, I think, the Palestinians,
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eshte se te dy anet, Izraeli dhe, une mendoj, Palestinezet
17:29
do not understand
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nuk kuptojne
17:31
that they share a collective destiny.
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se ata ndajne nje fat kolektiv.
17:34
And so suddenly, ladies and gentlemen,
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Dhe paparitmas, zonja dhe zoteri,
17:36
what has been the proposition
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cili ka qene propozimi
17:38
of visionaries and poets down the ages
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i vizionareve dhe poetve ne kohera
17:41
becomes something we have to take seriously
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sepse dicka duhet te marrim seriozisht
17:43
as a matter of public policy.
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si një çështje të politikave publike.
17:45
I started with a poem, I'll end with one.
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Une fillova me nje poemë, Une do te perfundoj me nje.
17:48
The great poem of John Donne's.
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Poema e madhe e John Donne
17:51
"Send not for whom the bell tolls."
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' Mos pyet per ke bien kembanat."
17:55
The poem is called "No Man is an Island."
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Poema quhet " Asnje njeri s'eshte ishull."
17:57
And it goes:
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Dhe thote:
17:59
"Every man's death affected me,
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" Cdo vdekje e njerezve me ka prekur mua,
18:02
for I am involved in mankind,
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sepse unë jam i përfshirë në njerëzim,
18:04
send not to ask
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dergo per te mos pyetur
18:06
for whom the bell tolls,
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per ke bien kembanat,
18:08
it tolls for thee."
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bien per ate."
18:10
For John Donne, a recommendation of morality.
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Per John Donne, nje rekomandim i moralitetit.
18:13
For us, I think,
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Per neve, mendoj,
18:15
part of the equation for our survival.
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pjesë e ekuacionit për mbijetesën tonë.
18:18
Thank you very much.
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Faleminderit shume.
18:20
(Applause)
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(Duartrokitje)
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