Paddy Ashdown: The global power shift

Reviewer: Maider Uranga

There's a poem written

Oso poeta ingeles ospetsu baten

by a very famous English poet

poema batean

at the end of the 19th century.

XIX. mendearen amaieran idatzita,

It was said to echo in Churchill's brain

Churchill-i eragin egin ziona

in the 1930s.

1930eko hamarkadan.

And the poem goes:

Eta poemak horrela dio:

"On the idle hill of summer,

"Udaren muino barean,

lazy with the flow of streams,

erreken ubideen nagian,

hark I hear a distant drummer,

urrunean danborra entzuten dut,

drumming like a sound in dreams,

ametsetako zurrumurrua bezala adarra jotzen.

far and near and low and louder on the roads of earth go by,

Urrun eta gertu, ezti eta ozen, lurreko bideetatik doaz,

dear to friend and food to powder,

lagunentzako maitaleak eta hautsetarako elikagai,

soldiers marching,

soldaduak badoaz,

soon to die."

laster hil egitera."

Those who are interested in poetry,

Poesia interesatzen zaienei,

the poem is "A Shropshire Lad" written by A.E. Housman.

poema "Shropshire-ren gizona" deitzen da, A.E. Housman-ek idatzia.

But what Housman understood,

Hots, Housman-ek ulertu zuena,

and you hear it in the symphonies of Nielsen too,

eta Nielsen-en sinfonietan ere entzun daitekeena,

was that the long, hot, silvan summers

uda luzeak, beroak eta basatiak

of stability of the 19th century

XIX. mendearenak, egonkortasunez beteta

were coming to a close,

amaitzear zeudela,

and that we were about to move

eta gizakiok denboraldi historiko ikaragarri batera

into one of those terrifying periods of history

abiatu ginela,

when power changes.

botereak aldatzen duenean gertatzen diren horietako bat.

And these are always periods, ladies and gentlemen,

Eta denboraldi horiek, jaun-andreak,

accompanied by turbulence,

nahasteekin batera doaz,

and all too often by blood.

eta maiz, odolekin ere bai.

And my message for you

Eta nire mezua da

is that I believe we are condemned, if you like,

behartuta gaudela, nahi baduzue,

to live at just one of those moments in history

denboraldi historiko horien batean bizitzera,

when the gimbals upon which

boterearen ezarritako ordenaren nahaste-borrastea

the established order of power is beginning to change

aldatzen hasiko denean

and the new look of the world,

eta munduaren itxura berria,

the new powers that exist in the world,

non munduan dauden botere berriak

are beginning to take form.

hasiko dira osatzen.

And these are -- and we see it very clearly today --

Eta oso argi ikusten dugu gaur egun;

nearly always highly turbulent times, highly difficult times,

nahaste handiko denboraldiak dira gaurkoak

and all too often very bloody times.

eta askotan, baita odoltsuak ere.

By the way, it happens about once every century.

Hala ere, hori mendean behin gertatzen da.

You might argue that the last time it happened --

Baiezta litezke hori zen gertatu zena

and that's what Housman felt coming and what Churchill felt too --

eta Housman-ek eta Churchill-ek susmatu zuten ideia zen

was that when power passed from the old nations,

nazio zaharren boterea,

the old powers of Europe,

Europako nazio zaharrena,

across the Atlantic to the new emerging power

agertzen ari diren potentzia berrira, Atlantikoz bestalde, eraman zen

of the United States of America --

Estatu Batuetakoa,

the beginning of the American century.

mende estatubatuarren hasiera.

And of course, into the vacuum

Eta jakina, botere europar zaharrek

where the too-old European powers used to be

utzitako hutsunean

were played the two bloody catastrophes

bi hondamen odoltsuak garatu ziren

of the last century --

azkeneko mendekoak, hain zuzen ere.

the one in the first part and the one in the second part: the two great World Wars.

Lehenengoa mendearen lehenengo zatian, eta beste bat bigarren zatian: bi mundu gerra handiak.

Mao Zedong used to refer to them as the European civil wars,

Mao Zedong-ek horrela deskribatzen dira: Europako gerra zibilak,

and it's probably a more accurate way of describing them.

eta segur aski deskribapen onena da.

Well, ladies and gentlemen,

Orduan, jaun-andreak

we live at one of those times.

denboraldi horien batean bizi izaten gara.

But for us, I want to talk about three factors today.

Baina gure kasuan, 3 faktore azaldu nahi ditut.

And the first of these, the first two of these,

Eta horietako lehenengoa, lehenengo biek,

is about a shift in power.

boterearen lekualdatzea adierazten dute,

And the second is about some new dimension which I want to refer to,

eta besteak, nik adierazi nahi dudan dimentsio berria,

which has never quite happened in the way it's happening now.

ez delako inoiz gertatzen gaurko moduan.

But let's talk about the shifts of power that are occurring to the world.

Baina hitz dezagun munduan gertatzen ari den boterearen lekualdatzeari buruz.

And what is happening today

Eta gaur egun gertatzen dena da

is, in one sense, frightening

nolabait esanda, ikaragarria,

because it's never happened before.

lehen ez zelako inoiz gertatuko.

We have seen lateral shifts of power --

Boterearen alboko lekualdatzeak ikusi ditugu,

the power of Greece passed to Rome

Greziak Erromari eraman zion boterea,

and the power shifts that occurred

eta gertatutakoak

during the European civilizations --

Europako zibilizazioetan zehar;

but we are seeing something slightly different.

baina gaur egun ikusten duguna pixka bat desberdina da.

For power is not just moving laterally

Hots, boterea ez da albo-mugimendurik egiten,

from nation to nation.

hau da, nazio batetik bestera

It's also moving vertically.

baizik eta, berak modu bertikalean ere egiten du.

What's happening today is that the power that was encased,

Gaur egun, gordetako botereak,

held to accountability, held to the rule of law,

erantzukizunak eta zuzenbidezko estatuak zuzentzen dute boterea,

within the institution of the nation state

Estatu-nazioaren instituzioaren barruan

has now migrated in very large measure onto the global stage.

migratu egin du, neurri handi batean, mundu mailako eszenatokira.

The globalization of power --

Boterearen globalizazioa,

we talk about the globalization of markets,

merkatuen globalizazioari buruz hitz egiten ari gara,

but actually it's the globalization of real power.

baina, egia esan, egiazko boterearen globalizazioa da.

And where, at the nation state level

Eta Estatu-nazioaren eremuan

that power is held to accountability

botereak erantzukizuna dauka

subject to the rule of law,

zuzenbidezko estatuari lotuta,

on the international stage it is not.

baina ez da horrela mundu mailako eremuan.

The international stage and the global stage where power now resides:

Mundu mailako eremuan eta eszenatokian, gaur boterea bizi izaten da:

the power of the Internet, the power of the satellite broadcasters,

Internet boterea, satelite bidezko irrati-enpresen boterea,

the power of the money changers --

diru-trukatzaileen boterea,

this vast money-go-round

mugitzen ari den diru kantitate handi hori

that circulates now 32 times the amount of money necessary

merkataritzarako behar dena baino 32 aldiz handiagoa da

for the trade it's supposed to be there to finance --

eta han dago

the money changers, if you like,

diru-trukatzaileei finantzatzeko, nahi baduzue,

the financial speculators

finantza-espekulatzaileei,

that have brought us all to our knees quite recently,

arestian belauniko jarri digutenei,

the power of the multinational corporations

enpresa multinazionalen boterea,

now developing budgets

enpresa horiek aurrekontuak garatzen dituzte

often bigger than medium-sized countries.

eta maiz tamaina erdiko herrienak baino handiagoak dira.

These live in a global space

Enpresa horiek mundu mailako eremuan bizi dira,

which is largely unregulated,

eta eremu hori, hein handi batean, ez dago araututa

not subject to the rule of law,

ezta zuzenbidezko estatuari lotuta ere,

and in which people may act free of constraint.

non pertsonek aske aritu dezaketen.

Now that suits the powerful

Egoera horrek komeni dio boteretsuari

up to a moment.

orain arte.

It's always suitable for those who have the most power

Oso egokia da boteretsuentzat

to operate in spaces without constraint,

murrizte gabeko eremuetan aritzea,

but the lesson of history is that, sooner or later,

baina historiaren ikasgaia da, lehenago edo beranduago,

unregulated space --

ez araututako eremua,

space not subject to the rule of law --

zuzenbidezko estatuari lotuta ez dagoen eremua,

becomes populated, not just by the things you wanted --

nahiago ditugun gauzez bete ez ezik:

international trade, the Internet, etc. --

nazioarteko merkataritza, Internet eta abar;

but also by the things you don't want --

baita nahiago ez ditugunekin ere:

international criminality, international terrorism.

nazioarteko delinkuentzia, nazioarteko terrorismoa,

The revelation of 9/11

Irailaren 11ren frogapena da

is that even if you are the most powerful nation on earth,

Lurraren nazio boteretsuena izan arren,

nevertheless,

halere,

those who inhabit that space can attack you

eremu horretan bizi direnek eraso diezaiokete AEBei,

even in your most iconic of cities

baita hiriaren ikono handienak ere,

one bright September morning.

irailaren goiz distiratsu batean.

It's said that something like 60 percent

Irailaren 11 finantzatzeko 4 milioi dolarren

of the four million dollars that was taken to fund 9/11

%60 inguru

actually passed through the institutions of the Twin Towers

Dorre Bikien instituzio beraiek finantzatu zuten kantitate hori

which 9/11 destroyed.

erasoa aurrera eramateko.

You see, our enemies also use this space --

Honela, gure etsaiek eremu hori erabiltzen dute,

the space of mass travel, the Internet, satellite broadcasters --

denak baterako bidaien eremua, Internetena, satelite bidezko irrati enpresena,

to be able to get around their poison,

euren pozoia areagotzeko, hots,

which is about destroying our systems and our ways.

gure sistemak eta ohiturak suntsitzeko.

Sooner or later,

Lehenago edo beranduago,

sooner or later,

lehenago edo beranduago,

the rule of history

historiaren arauak

is that where power goes

dio hara non boterea doan,

governance must follow.

gobernua bere atzetik.

And if it is therefore the case, as I believe it is,

Eta horrela bada, eta ontzat ematen dut,

that one of the phenomenon of our time

gure garaiaren fenomeno inportantenetariko bat

is the globalization of power,

boterearen globalizazioa da,

then it follows that one of the challenges of our time

orduan gure garaiko erronka handienetariko bat ondoriozta dezakegu, hau da,

is to bring governance to the global space.

mundu mailako eremura gobernaketa eramatea.

And I believe that the decades ahead of us now

Eta uste dut datorren hamarkadak

will be to a greater or lesser extent turbulent

neurri batean, zurrunbilotsuak izango direla,

the more or less we are able to achieve that aim:

gutxi gorabehera helburua lortuko dugu, hau da,

to bring governance to the global space.

mundu mailako eremura gobernaketa eramatea.

Now notice, I'm not talking about government.

Baina kontuan hartu behar duzue gobernuari buruz hitz egiten ez dudala.

I'm not talking about setting up

Ez dut esan nahi

some global democratic institution.

mundu mailako instituzio demokratikoa ezartzea.

My own view, by the way, ladies and gentlemen,

Nire ikuspuntua, jaun-andreak,

is that this is unlikely to be done

hau nekez sinestekoa da gertatzeko

by spawning more U.N. institutions.

NBen instituzioen ugalketaren bidez.

If we didn't have the U.N., we'd have to invent it.

NBa ez bagenu, asmatu beharko genuke.

The world needs an international forum.

Munduak nazioarteko foroa behar du.

It needs a means by which you can legitimize international action.

Nazioarteko ekintzak egiaztatzeko baliabide bat beharrezkoa da.

But when it comes to governance of the global space,

Baina mundu mailako eremuaren gobernaketari buruz hitz egiten dugunean,

my guess is this won't happen

nire ustez hau ez da gertatuko

through the creation of more U.N. institutions.

NBen instituzioen ugalketaren bidez.

It will actually happen by the powerful coming together

Baizik eta boterearen batasunaren zehar

and making treaty-based systems,

eta hitzarmenez oinarritutako sistemen zehar,

treaty-based agreements,

akordioetan,

to govern that global space.

mundu mailako eremua zuzentzeko.

And if you look, you can see them happening, already beginning to emerge.

Eta arretaz bazaudete, gertatzen ari denaren ideia eskuratuko duzue.

The World Trade Organization: treaty-based organization,

Munduko Merkataritza Antolakundea: hitzarmenez oinarritutako antolakundea,

entirely treaty-based,

zeharo hitzarmenez oinarritutakoa,

and yet, powerful enough to hold even the most powerful, the United States,

eta hala ere, boteretsuena (EEBB) geldiarazteko gai izatea,

to account if necessary.

argibideak eskatzen, beharrezkoa bada.

Kyoto: the beginnings of struggling to create

Kyoto: borrokaren hasiera da sortzeko

a treaty-based organization.

hitzarmenez oinarritutako antolakundea.

The G20:

G-20a:

we know now that we have to put together an institution

jakin badakigu instituzio berri bat martxan jarri behar dugula

which is capable of bringing governance

gobernaketa eskaintzeko

to that financial space for financial speculation.

finantza-eremu horri finantza-espekulazioarentzat.

And that's what the G20 is, a treaty-based institution.

Eta hori da G-20a, hitzarmenez oinarritutako antolakundea.

Now there's a problem there,

Baina arazo bat dago han,

and we'll come back to it in a minute,

eta minutu batean berriro hartuko dut,

which is that if you bring the most powerful together

hau da, boteretsuenak biltzen badira

to make the rules in treaty-based institutions,

hitzarmenez oinarritutako instituzioen arauak sortzeko

to fill that governance space,

eremu hori gobernaketaz betetzeko,

then what happens to the weak who are left out?

zer gertatzen da kanpoan geratzen diren ahulekin?

And that's a big problem,

Eta hori arazo galanta da,

and we'll return to it in just a second.

eta segundu batean berriro hartuko dut.

So there's my first message,

Orduan hau da nire lehenengo mezua,

that if you are to pass through these turbulent times

denboraldi zurrunbilotsu hau zeharkatu nahi badugu,

more or less turbulently,

gutxi gorabehera zurrunbilotsuak,

then our success in doing that

orduan, gure arrakasta egongo da,

will in large measure depend on our capacity

hein handi batean, gure ahalmenarena

to bring sensible governance

gobernaketa nabarmena eramateko

to the global space.

mundu mailako eremura.

And watch that beginning to happen.

Eta konprobatzea zer gertatuko den.

My second point is,

Nire bigarren puntua

and I know I don't have to talk to an audience like this

badakit ez diot horretaz hitz egin behar

about such a thing,

hau bezalako entzuleriari,

but power is not just shifting vertically,

baina botereak ez du soilik aldatzen modu bertikalean,

it's also shifting horizontally.

baita modu horizontalean ere.

You might argue that the story, the history of civilizations,

Zuek argudioak eman zenitzakete historiari buruz, zibilizazioen historiari buruz,

has been civilizations gathered around seas --

gehienek itsasoen inguruan bildutako zibilizazioak izan dira,

with the first ones around the Mediterranean,

lehenengoak Meditarraneo itsasoaren inguruan,

the more recent ones in the ascendents of Western power around the Atlantic.

gertatu berrienak, Mendebaldearen goranzko boterean, Atlantikoaren inguruan.

Well it seems to me

Eta nire ustez, orokorrean,

that we're now seeing a fundamental shift of power, broadly speaking,

boterearen funtsezko aldaketa ikusten ari gara,

away from nations gathered around the Atlantic [seaboard]

Atlantikoaren eta kostaldearen inguruan bildutako nazio hartatik,

to the nations gathered around the Pacific rim.

Ozeano Barearen arroaren inguruan bildutakoetara.

Now that begins with economic power,

Eta prozesu hori botere ekonomikoarekin hasten da,

but that's the way it always begins.

baina horrela hasten da beti.

You already begin to see the development of foreign policies,

Atzerri-politikaren garapena ikusten hasi egiten dugu,

the augmentation of military budgets

armada-aurrekontuen gorakada

occurring in the other growing powers in the world.

munduaren goraldian botereen artean.

I think actually

Eta benetan sinesten dut

this is not so much a shift from the West to the East;

hori Mendebaldetik Ekialdera aldaketa ez dela:

something different is happening.

zerbait desberdin suertatzen ari da.

My guess is, for what it's worth,

Nire iritzian

is that the United States will remain

EEBBek jarraituko dute izaten

the most powerful nation on earth

Lurraren nazio boteretsuena

for the next 10 years, 15,

hurrengo 10 edo 15 urteotan,

but the context in which she holds her power

baina bere boterearen testuingurua

has now radically altered; it has radically changed.

zeharo aldatu egin da.

We are coming out of 50 years,

Azkenengo 50 urtetatik irten ari gara,

most unusual years, of history

historiaren ezohizko denboraldia,

in which we have had a totally mono-polar world,

non polobakarreko mundua zegoen,

in which every compass needle

non iparorratzaren orratz bakoitza,

for or against

alde edo kontra,

has to be referenced by its position to Washington --

Washington-en loturarekiko aipatzen zen,

a world bestrode by a single colossus.

koloso bakarreko batek mundu menderatua.

But that's not a usual case in history.

Baina hori ez da arrunta Historian.

In fact, what's now emerging

Izan ere, gaur egun sortzen ari dena

is the much more normal case of history.

normalena da Historiaren osoan zehar.

You're beginning to see the emergence

Mundu multipolarraren

of a multi-polar world.

agertzea ikusten ari gara.

Up until now,

Orain arte,

the United States has been the dominant feature of our world.

EEBBak gure munduaren fakzio boteretsuena izan dira.

They will remain the most powerful nation,

Haiek jarraituko dute nazio boteretsuena izaten,

but they will be the most powerful nation

baina horrela izango da

in an increasingly multi-polar world.

gero eta mundu multipolar handiago batean.

And you begin to see the alternative centers of power building up --

Eta beste botere-gune batzuk hasi dira eraikitzen,

in China, of course,

Txina, jakina:

though my own guess is that China's ascent to greatness is not smooth.

baina nire ustez Txinaren goraldia handitasunera ez da otzan izango.

It's going to be quite grumpy

baizik eta zakarra,

as China begins to democratize her society

Txina bere gizartea demokratizatzen den heinean,

after liberalizing her economy.

bere ekonomia liberalizatu eta gero.

But that's a subject of a different discussion.

Baina hori beste eztabaida mota bat da.

You see India, you see Brazil.

Ikus ezazue India, Brasil.

You see increasingly

Mundu horrek

that the world now looks actually, for us Europeans,

europarrok ezagutu genuenaren antza du,

much more like Europe in the 19th century.

XIX. mendearen Europa.

Europe in the 19th century:

XIX. mendearen Europa:

a great British foreign secretary, Lord Canning,

Lord Canning-ek, kanpo harremanen idazkari handi britaniarra,

used to describe it as the "European concert of powers."

"Botere Europarren Kontzertua" aipatu zuen.

There was a balance, a five-sided balance.

Bost alditako oreka zegoen.

Britain always played to the balance.

Britain Handia beti orekaren bila zihoan.

If Paris got together with Berlin,

Paris-ek Berlin-ekin biltzen bazuen,

Britain got together with Vienna and Rome to provide a counterbalance.

Britain Handiak Viena-rekin eta Roma-rekin biltzen zituen kontrapisua sortzeko.

Now notice,

Orain nabari dute,

in a period which is dominated by a mono-polar world,

polobakarreko mundu batek menderatzeko eremua batean

you have fixed alliances --

aliantza finko daudela:

NATO, the Warsaw Pact.

OTAN, Varsoviako Ituna.

A fixed polarity of power

Botere-polaritate finkoak

means fixed alliances.

esan nahi ditu aliantza finkoak.

But a multiple polarity of power

Baina botere-polaritate anitzak

means shifting and changing alliances.

esan nahi ditu aldaketa eta aliantza aldakorrak.

And that's the world we're coming into,

Eta mundu horretara goaz

in which we will increasingly see

non gero eta gehiago ikusiko dugun

that our alliances are not fixed.

gure aliantzak ez direla finko.

Canning, the great British foreign secretary once said,

Canning-ek, kanpo harremanen idazkari handi britaniarrak behin esan zuen:

"Britain has a common interest,

"Britania Handiak badu amankomuneko interesa,

but no common allies."

baina ez du amankomuneko aliaturik".

And we will see increasingly

Eta gero eta gehiago ikusiko dugu

that even we in the West

guk geuk, Mendebaldean ere,

will reach out, have to reach out,

lortu behar izango dugula

beyond the cozy circle of the Atlantic powers

besteekin aliantzak egitea,

to make alliances with others

Atlantikoko botereen elkarte atseginez bestalde

if we want to get things done in the world.

batez ere, zerbait egin nahi badugu munduan.

Note, that when we went into Libya,

Begira ezazue Libian sartu ginenean,

it was not good enough for the West to do it alone;

ez zen nahikorik Mendebaldeentzat bakarrik egitea;

we had to bring others in.

beste batzuk ekarri behar genituen.

We had to bring, in this case, the Arab League in.

gertaera honetan Arabiar Estatuen Liga ekarri behar genuen.

My guess is Iraq and Afghanistan are the last times

Nire ustez, Irak eta Afganistan izan dira azkenengo adibidea

when the West has tried to do it themselves,

non Mendebaldea bakarrik egitea saiatu zen,

and we haven't succeeded.

eta ez genuen lortu.

My guess

Nire hipotesia da

is that we're reaching the beginning of the end of 400 years --

400 urtetako amaieraren hasierara heltzear gaudela.

I say 400 years because it's the end of the Ottoman Empire --

Eta 400 urte aipatzen dut, Otomandar Inperioaren amaiera delako,

of the hegemony of Western power,

Mendebaldeko boterearen lehentasunarena,

Western institutions and Western values.

Mendebaldeko baloreen eta instituzioenak.

You know, up until now, if the West got its act together,

Eta jakin badakizue, orain arte, Mendebaldeak elkarrekin aritu bazuen,

it could propose and dispose

proposa eta agindu zezakeen

in every corner of the world.

munduaren edozein txokotan,

But that's no longer true.

hori ez da jadanik egia.

Take the last financial crisis

Begira ezazue azkenengo finantza-krisia,

after the Second World War.

2. Mundu Gerra amaitu ostean.

The West got together --

Mendebaldea lotu zen

the Bretton Woods Institution, World Bank, International Monetary Fund --

Bretton Woods-en instituzioarekin, Nazioarteko Diru Funtsa,

the problem solved.

eta horrela arazoa konpondu zen.

Now we have to call in others.

Orain beste herri batzuk deitzea komenigarria da.

Now we have to create the G20.

Orain beharrezkoa da G-20a sortzea.

Now we have to reach beyond the cozy circle

Orain gure lagun mendebaldarren

of our Western friends.

elkarte atseginez bestalde joan behar dugu.

Let me make a prediction for you,

Eman baimena iragarpena egiteko

which is probably even more startling.

zein are harrigarriagoa den.

I suspect we are now reaching the end

400 urtetako amaierara heltzen ari garela

of 400 years

susmatzen dut

when Western power was enough.

non Mendebaldeko boterea nahikorik zen.

People say to me, "The Chinese, of course,

Pertsonek esaten didate: "Txinatarrek, jakina,

they'll never get themselves involved

ez dute inoiz parte hartuko

in peace-making, multilateral peace-making around the world."

munduaren inguruko baketze aldeaniztuan".

Oh yes? Why not?

Ah, bai? Zergatik ez?

How many Chinese troops

Zenbat soldadu txinatarrak

are serving under the blue beret, serving under the blue flag,

daude gaur egun kasko urdinen zerbitzuetara,

serving under the U.N. command in the world today?

ikur urdinarena, NBaren menpean?

3,700.

3,700.

How many Americans? 11.

Zenbat estatubatuarrak? 11.

What is the largest naval contingent

Zein da itsasontzi-kuota handiena

tackling the issue of Somali pirates?

Somaliako itsas-piraten kontrako arazoa aurka egiteko?

The Chinese naval contingent.

Txinako itsasontzi-kuota.

Of course they are, they are a mercantilist nation.

Bai jakina, Txina nazio merkantilista da.

They want to keep the sea lanes open.

Haiek itsas-bideak zabalik mantendu nahi dituzte.

Increasingly, we are going to have to do business

Gero eta negozio gehiago egin behar izango ditugu

with people with whom we do not share values,

balorerik partekatzen ez ditugun pertsonekin, nahiz eta

but with whom, for the moment, we share common interests.

interes berdinak partekatu.

It's a whole new different way

Orain sortzen ari den munduaren

of looking at the world that is now emerging.

ikuspegi guztiz ezberdina da.

And here's the third factor,

Eta hirugarren faktorea,

which is totally different.

guztiz ezberdina da.

Today in our modern world,

Gaur egun gure munduan,

because of the Internet,

Interneten dela eta,

because of the kinds of things people have been talking about here,

eta han jorratutako gaiak direla eta,

everything is connected to everything.

dena elkarrekin lotuta dago.

We are now interdependent.

elkarrekin menpekoak gara.

We are now interlocked,

Elkarrekin lotuta gaude,

as nations, as individuals,

nazio gisa, gizaki gisa,

in a way which has never been the case before,

inoiz gertatu ez den heinean;

never been the case before.

inoiz ez.

The interrelationship of nations,

Nazioen elkarrekiko lotura,

well it's always existed.

beti zegoen.

Diplomacy is about managing the interrelationship of nations.

Nazioen elkarrekiko loturaren kudeaketa da diplomazia.

But now we are intimately locked together.

Baina orain guztiz elkarrekin lotuta gaude.

You get swine flu in Mexico,

Mexikon txerri-gripea kutsatzen baduzue,

it's a problem for Charles de Gaulle Airport

Pariseko Charles de Gaulle aireporturako arazo galanta izango da

24 hours later.

24 ordu eta gero.

Lehman Brothers goes down, the whole lot collapses.

Lehman Brothers-ek porrot egiten badu, dena kolapsatu.

There are fires in the steppes of Russia,

Rusiako estepetan suteak daude,

food riots in Africa.

Afrikan gosete-matxinadak.

We are all now deeply, deeply, deeply interconnected.

Guztiz elkarrekin lotuta gaude.

And what that means

Eta horrek esan nahi du

is the idea of a nation state acting alone,

nazio bakar baten ideia

not connected with others,

beste nazioekin elkarrekiko loturarik gabe,

not working with others,

beste nazioekin lan egin gabe,

is no longer a viable proposition.

ez da proposamen bideragarri inoiz ere.

Because the actions of a nation state

Zeren Estatu-nazio baten ekintzak

are neither confined to itself,

ez dira bere existentzian murrizten,

nor is it sufficient for the nation state itself

ez da beharrezkoa Estatu-nazioarentzat

to control its own territory,

bere lurraldea kontrolatzea,

because the effects outside the nation state

Estatu-nazioaren kanpoko efektuek

are now beginning to affect what happens inside them.

eragiten dute bere baitan.

I was a young soldier

Ni soldadu gaztea nintzen

in the last of the small empire wars of Britain.

azkenengo gerra inperial britaniarren bitartean.

At that time, the defense of my country

Garai hartan, nire herriaren defentsa

was about one thing and one thing only:

oinarritzen zen

how strong was our army, how strong was our air force,

gure armadaren boterean, gure aireko indarran,

how strong was our navy and how strong were our allies.

gure itsas armadan eta gure aliatuetan.

That was when the enemy was outside the walls.

Garai hartan etsaia harresien kanpo zegoen.

Now the enemy is inside the walls.

Orain etsaia barruan dago.

Now if I want to talk about the defense of my country,

Orain, nire herriaren defentsari buruz hitz egin nahi izango banu,

I have to speak to the Minister of Health

Osasun ministroarekin hitz egin behar dut,

because pandemic disease is a threat to my security,

gaixo pandemikoak nire segurtasunerako mehatxua direlako.

I have to speak to the Minister of Agriculture

Nekazaritza ministroarekin hitz egin behar dut,

because food security is a threat to my security,

elikagai-segurtasuna nire segurtasunerako mehatxua delako.

I have to speak to the Minister of Industry

Baita Industria ministroarekin ere,

because the fragility of our hi-tech infrastructure

goi mailako teknologiaren gure azpiegituraren hauskortasuna,

is now a point of attack for our enemies --

gure etsaien itua delako,

as we see from cyber warfare --

gerra zibernetikoetan ikusten den bezala.

I have to speak to the Minister of Home Affairs

Barne ministroekin hitz egin behar dut,

because who has entered my country,

zeren nire herrira sartu zen pertsona,

who lives in that terraced house in that inner city

auzo bazterrekoen etxe elkarri atxiki horretan bizi den pertsona

has a direct effect on what happens in my country --

(haiek) nire herrian gertatutakoekin badituen ondorio zuzena,

as we in London saw in the 7/7 bombings.

Londres-eko Uztailaren 7ko erasoetan ikusi genuen bezala.

It's no longer the case that the security of a country

Orain herri baten segurtasunak

is simply a matter for its soldiers and its ministry of defense.

ez du zerikusirik soldaduekin ezta Defentsa ministroekin ere.

It's its capacity to lock together its institutions.

Baizik eta instituzioak estutzeko eta bateratzeko ahalmenarekin.

And this tells you something very important.

Eta horrek zerbait garrantzitsua erakusten du.

It tells you that, in fact,

Izan ere, (hark) erakusten du

our governments, vertically constructed,

bertikalki egindako gure gobernuek,

constructed on the economic model of the Industrial Revolution --

Industri-Iraultzaren eredua jarraituz --

vertical hierarchy, specialization of tasks,

hierarkia bertikalekin, lan-espezializazioekin,

command structures --

arduradun-estrukturekin --

have got the wrong structures completely.

(haiek) guztiz estruktura okerrak izan direla.

You in business know

Jakin badakigu, negozioetan

that the paradigm structure of our time, ladies and gentlemen,

gure garaiko paradigma, jaun-andreak

is the network.

sarea dela.

It's your capacity to network that matters,

Ardura dagoena, elkarrekiko lotura da,

both within your governments and externally.

gobernuen barruan zein kanpokoaldekoekin.

So here is Ashdown's third law.

Orduan hemen dago Ashdown-en hirugarren legea

By the way, don't ask me about Ashdown's first law and second law

Aizue, ez didate lehenengoari eta bigarrenari buruz galdetzen,

because I haven't invented those yet;

oraindik asmatu ez nituelako.

it always sounds better if there's a third law, doesn't it?

Onena da hirugarren legea egotea, ezta?

Ashdown's third law is that in the modern age,

Ashdown-en hirugarren legeak dio aro garaikidean

where everything is connected to everything,

non dena elkarreriko lotuta dagoen

the most important thing about what you can do

egin dezakegun garrantzi handikoa da

is what you can do with others.

besteekin egiten ditugunak (ekintzak).

The most important bit about your structure --

Estrukturaren eremu garrantzitsuena,

whether you're a government, whether you're an army regiment,

gobernuan zein armadaren erregimentuan,

whether you're a business --

edo negozio batean,

is your docking points, your interconnectors,

artikulazio-puntuak, elkarrekiko loturak izango dira,

your capacity to network with others.

besteekin elkarrekiko lotzeko ahalmena.

You understand that in industry;

Industri-eremuan badakite,

governments don't.

gobernuetan oraindik ez.

But now one final thing.

Eta azkena,

If it is the case, ladies and gentlemen -- and it is --

Horrela bada, jaun-andreak... eta izan bada,

that we are now locked together

elkarrekiko lotu egitea

in a way that has never been quite the same before,

lehen gertatatu inoiz ez zen moduan,

then it's also the case that we share a destiny with each other.

orduan, besteekin ere patua partekatzen dugu.

Suddenly and for the very first time,

Bat-batean eta lehenengo aldiz,

collective defense, the thing that has dominated us

talde-defentsa, nagusi izan zaigun ideia

as the concept of securing our nations,

hau da, gure nazioen segurtasunaren ideia,

is no longer enough.

ez da jadanik nahikorik.

It used to be the case

Bazen behin

that if my tribe was more powerful than their tribe, I was safe;

nire tribua besteak baino boteretsuagoa bazen, salbu nengoen;

if my country was more powerful than their country, I was safe;

nire herria besteak baino boteretsuagoa bazen, segur nengoen;

my alliance, like NATO, was more powerful than their alliance, I was safe.

nire aliantza, e.b OTAN, beste aliantza baino boteretsuagoa bazen, salbu nengoen.

It is no longer the case.

Gaur egun ez da horrela gertatzen.

The advent of the interconnectedness

Elkarrekiko loturaren etorrerak

and of the weapons of mass destruction

baita suntsiketa askoren armak ere

means that, increasingly,

esan nahi du, gero eta patu handiagoa da,

I share a destiny with my enemy.

nire etsaiarekin partekatzen dudana.

When I was a diplomat

Diplomazialaria izan nintzenean, lortu genuen akordio arrakastatsua

negotiating the disarmament treaties with the Soviet Union

Soviet Batasunarekiko desarmatze-itunen negoziazioan,

in Geneva in the 1970s,

Genevan, 1970eko hamarkadan,

we succeeded because we understood

haiekin patua partekatzen genuen ideia

we shared a destiny with them.

ulertu genuelako.

Collective security is not enough.

Segurtasun kolektiboa ez da nahikorik.

Peace has come to Northern Ireland

Bakea Ipar Irlandara heldu zen bi taldeek ulertu zutelako

because both sides realized that the zero-sum game couldn't work.

zero-gehiketa jokua ez litzatekeela ibiliko.

They shared a destiny with their enemies.

Haiek euren etsiekin patua partekatzen dute.

One of the great barriers to peace in the Middle East

Ekialde Ertainan bakerako oztopo handienetariko bat da

is that both sides, both Israel and, I think, the Palestinians,

bi taldeek, Israel zein palestinarrak,

do not understand

ulertzen ez duten

that they share a collective destiny.

patu kolektiboa partekatzen duten ideia.

And so suddenly, ladies and gentlemen,

Eta bat-batean, jaun-andreak,

what has been the proposition

poeten eta ameslarien proposamena

of visionaries and poets down the ages

mendeetan zehar,

becomes something we have to take seriously

serioski hartu behar dugun ideia bihurtzen da

as a matter of public policy.

politika publikoaren gertaera bezala.

I started with a poem, I'll end with one.

Poema batekin hasi eta beste batekin amaituko dut.

The great poem of John Donne's.

John Donne-ren poema handia:

"Send not for whom the bell tolls."

"Ez galdetu kanpaiak jotzen ari den pertsonaz"

The poem is called "No Man is an Island."

Poema deitzen da: "Inor ez da uhartea".

And it goes:

Eta horrela dio:

"Every man's death affected me,

"Edozein gizakiren heriotzak gutxitzen nau,

for I am involved in mankind,

gizateriaren partaidea naizelako,

send not to ask

hots, ez galdetu

for whom the bell tolls,

kanpaiak jotzen ari den pertsonaz,

it tolls for thee."

zutaz jotzen ari dira"

For John Donne, a recommendation of morality.

John Donne-rentzat, moraltasunaren ikasgaia da.

For us, I think,

Guretzat, nire ustez,

part of the equation for our survival.

gure biziraupenarako ekuaziaoren zatia da.

Thank you very much.

Mila esker

(Applause)

(Txaloak)