Paddy Ashdown: The global power shift

141,147 views ใƒป 2012-01-05

TED


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Woo Hwang ๊ฒ€ํ† : Bianca Lee
00:15
There's a poem written
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์‹œ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋‚˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:17
by a very famous English poet
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์•„์ฃผ ์œ ๋ช…ํ•œ ์˜๊ตญ ์‹œ์ธ์ด
00:19
at the end of the 19th century.
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19์„ธ๊ธฐ๋ง์— ์“ด ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
00:21
It was said to echo in Churchill's brain
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์ฒ˜์น ๋„ ์—ญ์‹œ 1930๋…„๋Œ€์—
00:24
in the 1930s.
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์•”์†กํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
00:26
And the poem goes:
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๊ทธ ์‹œ๋Š” ์ด๋ ‡์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
00:28
"On the idle hill of summer,
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"์—ฌ๋ฆ„๋‚  ํ•œ๊ฐ€ํ•œ ์–ธ๋•์œ„
00:30
lazy with the flow of streams,
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๊ฐœ์šธ๋ฌผ์€ ์ฒœ์ฒœํžˆ ํ๋ฅด๋„ค
00:32
hark I hear a distant drummer,
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๋“ค์–ด๋ผ ์ € ๋ฉ€๋ฆฌ ๋ถ์†Œ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ
00:34
drumming like a sound in dreams,
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๊ฟˆ์†์—์„œ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ์šธ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ทธ ์†Œ๋ฆฌ
00:36
far and near and low and louder on the roads of earth go by,
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๋ฉ€๋ฆฌ์„œ ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์ด, ๋‚ฎ๊ฒŒ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋” ํฌ๊ฒŒ ์„ธ์ƒ์˜ ๊ธธ์œ„๋กœ ์ง€๋‚˜๊ฐ„๋‹ค
00:39
dear to friend and food to powder,
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์‚ฌ๋ž‘ํ•˜๋Š” ์นœ๊ตฌ๋“ค, ์‹๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ํ™”์•ฝ
00:42
soldiers marching,
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๋ณ‘์‚ฌ๋“ค์€ ํ–‰์ง„ํ•œ๋‹ค
00:44
soon to die."
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์ฃฝ์Œ์„ ํ–ฅํ•ด"
00:46
Those who are interested in poetry,
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์‹œ๋ฅผ ์ข‹์•„ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ถ„๋“ค์€ ์•„์‹œ๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ
00:48
the poem is "A Shropshire Lad" written by A.E. Housman.
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์ด ์‹œ๋Š” ํ•˜์šฐ์Šค๋งŒ์˜ "์Šˆ๋กญ์…”์˜ ํ•œ ์ Š์€์ด"์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
00:51
But what Housman understood,
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ํ•˜์šฐ์Šค๋งŒ์ด ์•Œ๊ณ 
00:53
and you hear it in the symphonies of Nielsen too,
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๋‹์„ผ์˜ ๊ตํ–ฅ๊ณก์—์„œ ์—ญ์‹œ ๋Š๊ปด์ง€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
00:57
was that the long, hot, silvan summers
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๊ทธ ๊ธธ๊ณ , ๋ฌด๋ฅ๊ณ , ๋‚˜๋ฌด๊ฐ€ ์šฐ๊ฑฐ์ง„ ์—ฌ๋ฆ„๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€
01:01
of stability of the 19th century
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19์„ธ๊ธฐ์˜ ํ‰์˜จํ•จ์ด
01:03
were coming to a close,
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๋๋‚˜๊ฐ€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์—ˆ๊ณ 
01:05
and that we were about to move
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘๊ฐ€
01:07
into one of those terrifying periods of history
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์—ญ์‚ฌ์ƒ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋”์ฐํ•œ ์‹œ๊ธฐ๋กœ ๋“ค์–ด ๊ฐ€๋˜ ์ฐธ์ด์—ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
01:09
when power changes.
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์ด ๋ณ€ํ™”ํ•˜๋Š” ๋•Œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
01:11
And these are always periods, ladies and gentlemen,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์‹œ๊ธฐ๋Š” ์–ธ์ œ๋‚˜
01:13
accompanied by turbulence,
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๊ฒฉ๋™์ด ๋”ฐ๋ผ์˜ค๊ณ 
01:16
and all too often by blood.
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๋„ˆ๋ฌด๋‚˜ ์ž์ฃผ ํ”ผ๋ฅผ ๋ถˆ๋Ÿฌ์˜ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
01:18
And my message for you
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋“œ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ง์€
01:20
is that I believe we are condemned, if you like,
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์ œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์—” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ €์ฃผ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์•„
01:22
to live at just one of those moments in history
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์—ญ์‚ฌ์˜ ํ•œ ์ˆœ๊ฐ„์— ์‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
01:25
when the gimbals upon which
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๊ทธ ์ˆœ๊ฐ„์— ๊ธฐ์กด ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ ์งˆ์„œ๊ฐ€
01:27
the established order of power is beginning to change
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๋†“์—ฌ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋‚˜์นจ๋ฐ˜์ด ๋ณ€ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜๊ณ 
01:30
and the new look of the world,
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์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์„ธ์ƒ์˜ ๋ชจ์Šต๊ณผ
01:32
the new powers that exist in the world,
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์„ธ์ƒ์— ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์ด
01:35
are beginning to take form.
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์ƒ๊ฒจ๋‚˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
01:37
And these are -- and we see it very clearly today --
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์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ๋ถ„๋ช…ํžˆ ์•„์‹œ๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ, ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์‹œ๊ธฐ์—๋Š”
01:40
nearly always highly turbulent times, highly difficult times,
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๋Š˜ ๊ฒฉ๋™์ ์ด๊ณ , ๋งค์šฐ ๊ฒฌ๋””๊ธฐ ํž˜๋“ค๋ฉฐ
01:43
and all too often very bloody times.
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๋„ˆ๋ฌด๋‚˜ ์ž์ฃผ ํ”ผ๋ฅผ ํ˜๋ฆฌ๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
01:45
By the way, it happens about once every century.
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๋ฐฑ๋…„์— ํ•œ๋ฒˆ์”ฉ์€ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ผ์ด ๋ฒŒ์–ด์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
01:48
You might argue that the last time it happened --
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๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ ๋ฒŒ์–ด์กŒ๋˜ ์‹œ์ ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ด๊ฒฌ์ด ์žˆ์„ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ
01:50
and that's what Housman felt coming and what Churchill felt too --
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ํ•˜์šฐ์Šค๋งŒ๊ณผ ์ฒ˜์น ์ด ๊ฐ™์ด ๋Š๊ผˆ๋˜ ๋•Œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
01:53
was that when power passed from the old nations,
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ํž˜์˜ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์ด ์˜ค๋ž˜๋œ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค
01:56
the old powers of Europe,
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์ฆ‰ ์œ ๋Ÿฝ์˜ ๊ตฌ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์—์„œ
01:58
across the Atlantic to the new emerging power
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๋Œ€์„œ์–‘๋„ˆ๋จธ ๋– ์˜ค๋ฅด๋Š” ๊ฐ•๊ตญ์ธ
02:00
of the United States of America --
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ฎ๊ฒจ ๊ฐ„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:02
the beginning of the American century.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์„ธ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์‹œ์ž‘๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:04
And of course, into the vacuum
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ง„๊ณต ์ƒํƒœ๊ฐ™์€ ํ˜„์ƒ์œผ๋กœ
02:06
where the too-old European powers used to be
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๋‚ก์•„๋น ์ง„ ์œ ๋Ÿฝ์˜ ๊ฐ•๊ตญ๋“ค์ด
02:09
were played the two bloody catastrophes
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๋‘๋ฒˆ์˜ ํ”ผ๋น„๋ฆฐ๋‚ด๋‚˜๋Š” ์žฌ์•™์„
02:12
of the last century --
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๋ถˆ๋Ÿฌ์˜จ ์„ธ๊ธฐ๋กœ ๋“ค์–ด ์„ฐ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:14
the one in the first part and the one in the second part: the two great World Wars.
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ํ•œ๋ฒˆ์€ ์ดˆ๋ฐ˜๋ถ€์— ๊ทธ ๋‹ค์Œ์€ ํ›„๋ฐ˜๋ถ€์— ๋‘๋ฒˆ์˜ ์„ธ๊ณ„๋Œ€์ „์ด ๋ฒŒ์–ด์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:17
Mao Zedong used to refer to them as the European civil wars,
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๋ชจํƒ๋™์€ ์ด๊ฒƒ์„ ์œ ๋Ÿฝ์‹œ๋ฏผ์ „์Ÿ์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ€๋ฅด๊ณค ํ–ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
02:20
and it's probably a more accurate way of describing them.
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์•„๋งˆ๋„ ๊ทธ๊ฒŒ ๋” ์ •ํ™•ํ•œ ํ‘œํ˜„์ผ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:23
Well, ladies and gentlemen,
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์ž, ์‹ ์‚ฌ ์ˆ™๋…€ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„,
02:25
we live at one of those times.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์‹œ๋Œ€์— ์‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:27
But for us, I want to talk about three factors today.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์˜ค๋Š˜์€ ์„ธ๊ฐ€์ง€์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ํ•œ๋ฒˆ ์–˜๊ธฐํ•ด ๋ณด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:30
And the first of these, the first two of these,
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๊ทธ ์ค‘ ์ฒซ๋ฒˆ์งธ๋Š”, ์•„๋‹ˆ ์ฒ˜์Œ ๋‘๊ฐ€์ง€๋Š”,
02:33
is about a shift in power.
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๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์˜ ์ด๋™์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:35
And the second is about some new dimension which I want to refer to,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‘๋ฒˆ์งธ๋Š” ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ฐจ์›์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:38
which has never quite happened in the way it's happening now.
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์ง€๊ธˆ ๋ฒŒ์–ด์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์‹์€ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์—๋Š” ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋˜ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:41
But let's talk about the shifts of power that are occurring to the world.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ์ง€๊ธˆ ๋ฒŒ์–ด์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์˜ ์ด๋™์„ ํ•œ๋ฒˆ ๋ด…์‹œ๋‹ค
02:44
And what is happening today
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์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ๋ฒŒ์–ด์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
02:46
is, in one sense, frightening
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ํ•œํŽธ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ๋ฌด์„ญ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:48
because it's never happened before.
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ ์ด ์—†์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:51
We have seen lateral shifts of power --
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์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์€ ์ˆ˜ํ‰์  ์ด๋™์„ ํ•ด์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:53
the power of Greece passed to Rome
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ์Šค์˜ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์ด ๋กœ๋งˆ๋กœ ์˜ฎ๊ฒจ ๊ฐ”๊ณ ,
02:56
and the power shifts that occurred
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์€
02:58
during the European civilizations --
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์œ ๋Ÿฝ์ด ๋ฌธ๋ช…ํ™”๋˜๋Š” ๋™์•ˆ ์ด๋™ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
03:01
but we are seeing something slightly different.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ง€๊ธˆ์€ ์ข€ ๋‹ค๋ฆ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
03:03
For power is not just moving laterally
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์ด์ œ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์€ ์ˆ˜ํ‰์ ์œผ๋กœ๋งŒ
03:05
from nation to nation.
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๊ตญ๊ฐ€์—์„œ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋กœ ์›€์ง์ด์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
03:07
It's also moving vertically.
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์ด์ œ ์ˆ˜์ง์ ์œผ๋กœ ์›€์ง์ด๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
03:09
What's happening today is that the power that was encased,
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์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚ , ๊ทธ๋™์•ˆ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋ผ๋Š” ์ œ๋„๋‚ด์— ๋‘˜๋Ÿฌ์‹ธ์—ฌ
03:12
held to accountability, held to the rule of law,
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์ฑ…์ž„๊ณผ ๋ฒ•์˜ ์ง€๋ฐฐ์˜ ์ ์šฉ์„ ๋ฐ›๋˜
03:15
within the institution of the nation state
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๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์ด
03:18
has now migrated in very large measure onto the global stage.
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์•„์ฃผ ํฐ ๋ฒ”์œ„์˜ ๊ตญ์ œ๋ฌด๋Œ€๋กœ ์˜ฎ๊ฒจ ์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
03:21
The globalization of power --
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๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์˜ ์„ธ๊ณ„ํ™”์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
03:23
we talk about the globalization of markets,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์‹œ์žฅ์˜ ์„ธ๊ณ„ํ™”๋ฅผ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ
03:25
but actually it's the globalization of real power.
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์˜ ์„ธ๊ณ„ํ™”์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
03:29
And where, at the nation state level
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๊ตญ๊ฐ€์  ์ฐจ์›์—์„œ๋Š”
03:31
that power is held to accountability
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๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์—๋Š” ์ฑ…์ž„์ด ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๊ณ 
03:33
subject to the rule of law,
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๋ฒ•์˜ ์ง€๋ฐฐ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์ง€๋งŒ
03:35
on the international stage it is not.
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๊ตญ์ œ๋ฌด๋Œ€์—์„œ๋Š” ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
03:38
The international stage and the global stage where power now resides:
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์ง€๊ธˆ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์ด ์กด์žฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ตญ์ œ ๋ฌด๋Œ€, ์„ธ๊ณ„ ๋ฌด๋Œ€๋ผ๋Š” ๊ณณ์—๋Š”
03:41
the power of the Internet, the power of the satellite broadcasters,
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์ธํ„ฐ๋„ท์˜ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ, ์œ„์„ฑ๋ฐฉ์†ก์˜ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ
03:44
the power of the money changers --
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์™ธํ™˜ ํŠธ๋ ˆ์ด๋”์˜ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
03:47
this vast money-go-round
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์ด ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž๊ธˆ์˜ ํ๋ฆ„์€
03:49
that circulates now 32 times the amount of money necessary
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๋ฌด์—ญ์— ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ๋ณด๋‹ค 32๋ฐฐ๋‚˜ ๋งŽ์€ ๊ธˆ์•ก์˜
03:53
for the trade it's supposed to be there to finance --
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์ž๊ธˆ์„ ๋Œ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
03:56
the money changers, if you like,
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์™ธํ™˜ ํŠธ๋ ˆ์ด๋”๋“ค์€
03:58
the financial speculators
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์ตœ๊ทผ์— ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์™„์ „ํžˆ ๊ตด๋ณต์‹œ์ผฐ๋˜
04:00
that have brought us all to our knees quite recently,
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๊ธˆ์œต ํˆฌ๊ธฐ๊พผ๋“ค์ด์ฃ .
04:03
the power of the multinational corporations
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๋‹ค๊ตญ์  ๊ธฐ์—…์˜
04:05
now developing budgets
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์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์€ ์™ ๋งŒํ•œ ์ค‘ํ˜•๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜
04:08
often bigger than medium-sized countries.
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๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ํฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
04:10
These live in a global space
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์ด๋“ค์€ ๊ตญ์ œ์ ์ธ ์„ธ์ƒ์— ์‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
04:12
which is largely unregulated,
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ๋Š” ๊ทœ์ œ๋„ ๊ฑฐ์˜ ์—†๊ณ 
04:14
not subject to the rule of law,
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๋ฒ•์˜ ์ €์ด‰๋„ ๋ฐ›์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
04:17
and in which people may act free of constraint.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ œํ•œ์—†์ด ํ–‰๋™ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
04:19
Now that suits the powerful
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์ด๋Š” ํž˜์žˆ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ
04:22
up to a moment.
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์–ด๋Š ์ˆœ๊ฐ„๊นŒ์ง€๋Š” ์ข‹์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
04:24
It's always suitable for those who have the most power
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์–ธ์ œ๋‚˜ ํž˜์žˆ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€
04:27
to operate in spaces without constraint,
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์ œ์•ฝ์—†๋Š” ๊ณณ์—์„œ ํ™œ๋™ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ข‹์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
04:30
but the lesson of history is that, sooner or later,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์˜ ๊ตํ›ˆ์€ ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ์กฐ๋งŒ๊ฐ„
04:33
unregulated space --
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๊ทœ์ œ๋„ ์—†๊ณ 
04:35
space not subject to the rule of law --
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๋ฒ•์ด ์ ์šฉ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ๊ณณ์€
04:37
becomes populated, not just by the things you wanted --
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๋ถ๋น„๊ฒŒ ๋œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ข‹์•„ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋“ค ๋ฟ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
04:40
international trade, the Internet, etc. --
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๊ตญ์ œ๋ฌด์—ญ, ์ธํ„ฐ๋„ท๋“ฑ ๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
04:42
but also by the things you don't want --
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์›ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋˜ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค
04:44
international criminality, international terrorism.
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๊ตญ์ œ ๋ฒ”์ฃ„, ๊ตญ์ œ ํ…Œ๋Ÿฌ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค๋„ ๋งŽ์•„ ์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
04:47
The revelation of 9/11
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9/11์‚ฌํƒœ๊ฐ€ ๋งํ•ด์ฃผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
04:49
is that even if you are the most powerful nation on earth,
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์ง€๊ตฌ์ƒ ์•„๋ฌด๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋ผ ํ•˜๋”๋ผ๋„
04:54
nevertheless,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿผ์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ 
04:57
those who inhabit that space can attack you
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๊ฑฐ๊ธฐ ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ๊ณต๊ฒฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
04:59
even in your most iconic of cities
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋„ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ƒ์ง•์ ์ธ ๋„์‹œ๋ฅผ
05:01
one bright September morning.
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9์›”์˜ ํ™”์ฐฝํ•œ ์•„์นจ์— ๋ง์ด์ฃ 
05:03
It's said that something like 60 percent
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์•Œ๋ ค์ง„ ๋ฐ”์— ์˜ํ•˜๋ฉด
05:05
of the four million dollars that was taken to fund 9/11
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9/11์‚ฌํƒœ์— ์†Œ์š”๋œ 4๋ฐฑ๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์˜ 60ํผ์„ผํŠธ ์ •๋„๊ฐ€
05:08
actually passed through the institutions of the Twin Towers
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9/11๋กœ ํŒŒ๊ดด๋œ ์Œ๋‘ฅ์ด ๋นŒ๋”ฉ์„
05:11
which 9/11 destroyed.
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ํ†ตํ•ด ์›€์ง์˜€๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
05:13
You see, our enemies also use this space --
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ ๋“ค๋„ ๋˜ํ•œ ์ด ๋ถ„์•ผ๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
05:15
the space of mass travel, the Internet, satellite broadcasters --
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๋Œ€์ค‘ ์—ฌํ–‰, ์ธํ„ฐ๋„ท, ์œ„์„ฑ ๋ฐฉ์†ก๊ตญ๋“ค ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค๋ง์ด์ฃ 
05:18
to be able to get around their poison,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ๋…์„ ์ด๋ฆฌ ์ €๋ฆฌ ์ด๋™์‹œ์ผœ
05:21
which is about destroying our systems and our ways.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ๊ณผ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋ฐฉ์‹์„ ํŒŒ๊ดดํ•˜๋ ค ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
05:24
Sooner or later,
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์กฐ๋งŒ๊ฐ„
05:26
sooner or later,
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๋จธ์ง€ ์•Š์•„
05:28
the rule of history
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์—ญ์‚ฌ์˜ ๋ฒ•์น™์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด
05:30
is that where power goes
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ํž˜์ด ๊ฐ€๋Š” ๊ณณ์—๋Š”
05:32
governance must follow.
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ํ†ต์น˜๊ฐ€ ์˜ค๊ฒŒ ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
05:35
And if it is therefore the case, as I believe it is,
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๋‹ค๋ฉด ์ œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์—๋Š”
05:37
that one of the phenomenon of our time
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์‹œ๋Œ€์˜ ํŠน์ง•์€
05:39
is the globalization of power,
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๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์˜ ๊ตญ์ œํ™”์ด๊ณ 
05:41
then it follows that one of the challenges of our time
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์‹œ๋Œ€์˜ ๋„์ „์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜์ธ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด
05:44
is to bring governance to the global space.
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๊ตญ์ œ์ ์ธ ํ†ต์น˜์ฒด์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋“ค์–ด ์„ค ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
05:47
And I believe that the decades ahead of us now
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์ €๋Š” ์•ž์œผ๋กœ ์˜ฌ ์ˆ˜์‹ญ๋…„์€
05:50
will be to a greater or lesser extent turbulent
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๋‹ค์†Œ ๊ฒฉ๋™์ ์ผ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ
05:54
the more or less we are able to achieve that aim:
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์–ด๋Š ์ •๋„ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ตญ์ œํ™”๋œ ์„ธ์ƒ์— ํ†ต์น˜๊ตฌ์กฐ๋ฅผ
05:57
to bring governance to the global space.
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๊ฐ€์ ธ ์˜ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ด…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
05:59
Now notice, I'm not talking about government.
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์ž ์ฃผ๋ชฉํ•˜์„ธ์š”, ์ €๋Š” ์ •๋ถ€์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์–˜๊ธฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
06:01
I'm not talking about setting up
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์ €๋Š” ์„ธ๊ณ„์ ์ธ ๋ฏผ์ฃผ์  ์ œ๋„๋ฅผ
06:03
some global democratic institution.
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๋งŒ๋“ค์ž๊ณ  ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
06:06
My own view, by the way, ladies and gentlemen,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ์ œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์—๋Š”
06:08
is that this is unlikely to be done
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ U.N. ๊ธฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ๋” ๋งŒ๋“ ๋‹ค๊ณ 
06:10
by spawning more U.N. institutions.
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์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋˜์ง€๋Š” ์•Š์„ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
06:12
If we didn't have the U.N., we'd have to invent it.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ U.N.์ด ์—†์—ˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ฑธ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด ๋‚ด์•ผํ–ˆ๊ฒ ์ฃ .
06:14
The world needs an international forum.
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์„ธ๊ณ„๋Š” ๊ตญ์ œ์ ์ธ ํฌ๋Ÿผ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
06:16
It needs a means by which you can legitimize international action.
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๊ตญ์ œ์ ์ธ ํ–‰๋™์„ ํ•ฉ๋ฒ•ํ™”ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ˆ˜๋‹จ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
06:20
But when it comes to governance of the global space,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ตญ์ œ ์‚ฌํšŒ์˜ ํ†ต์ œ์— ๊ด€๋ จ๋˜์„œ๋Š”
06:22
my guess is this won't happen
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๋” ์ด์ƒ์˜ U.N. ๊ธฐ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๊ฒจ๋‚˜๋”๋ผ๋„
06:25
through the creation of more U.N. institutions.
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ํ•ด๊ฒฐ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
06:27
It will actually happen by the powerful coming together
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์ž๋“ค์ด ๋ชจ์—ฌ์„œ
06:30
and making treaty-based systems,
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์กฐ์•ฝ์— ๊ทผ๊ฑฐํ•œ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ๊ณผ
06:32
treaty-based agreements,
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์กฐ์•ฝ์— ๊ทผ๊ฑฐํ•œ ํ˜‘์ •์„ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด
06:34
to govern that global space.
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๊ตญ์ œ ์‚ฌํšŒ๋ฅผ ํ†ต์ œํ•ด์•ผ ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด ์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
06:36
And if you look, you can see them happening, already beginning to emerge.
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๋ณด์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„์‹œ๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์ผ์ด ์ƒ๊ธฐ๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋ฏธ ๋ถ€์ƒํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
06:39
The World Trade Organization: treaty-based organization,
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์„ธ๊ณ„๋ฌด์—ญ๊ธฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ์กฐ์•ฝ์— ๊ทผ๊ฑฐํ•œ ๊ธฐ๊ตฌ๋กœ์„œ
06:42
entirely treaty-based,
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์™„์ „ํžˆ ์กฐ์•ฝ์— ๊ทผ๊ฑฐํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ
06:44
and yet, powerful enough to hold even the most powerful, the United States,
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ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค๋ฉด ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๋„
06:47
to account if necessary.
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์ €์ง€ํ•  ๋งŒํผ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:49
Kyoto: the beginnings of struggling to create
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๊ตํ† , ์กฐ์•ฝ์„ ๊ทผ๊ฑฐ๋กœ ํ•˜๋Š” ์กฐ์ง์„
06:51
a treaty-based organization.
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๋งŒ๋“ค๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ์‹ธ์›€์˜ ์ดˆ์ฐฝ๊ธฐ์˜€์ฃ .
06:53
The G20:
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G20์€ ์–ด๋–ค๊ฐ€์š”.
06:55
we know now that we have to put together an institution
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์ด์ œ๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ธˆ์œต ํˆฌ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ
06:57
which is capable of bringing governance
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์žฅ์†Œ๋“ค์„ ๊ด€์žฅํ•  ์กฐ์ง์„ ํ•œ๊ณณ์œผ๋กœ
06:59
to that financial space for financial speculation.
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๋ฌถ์–ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:02
And that's what the G20 is, a treaty-based institution.
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๊ทธ์ ์ด ์กฐ์•ฝ์„ ๊ทผ๊ฑฐ๋กœํ•˜๋Š” G20์ด ํ•˜๋Š” ์ผ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:05
Now there's a problem there,
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์ž ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ๊ฑฐ๊ธฐ์—๋Š” ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:07
and we'll come back to it in a minute,
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์ž ์‹œํ›„์— ๊ทธ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋กœ ๋Œ์•„์™€ ๋ณด๊ธฐ๋กœํ•˜์ฃ .
07:09
which is that if you bring the most powerful together
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๊ธˆ์œต ํˆฌ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๊ด€ํ• ํ• 
07:12
to make the rules in treaty-based institutions,
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์กฐ์•ฝ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์˜ ๊ธฐ๊ด€์—์„œ ๊ทœ์ •์„ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด
07:14
to fill that governance space,
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค์„ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๋ชจ์€๋‹ค๋ฉด
07:17
then what happens to the weak who are left out?
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์•ฝ์†Œ๊ตญ๋“ค์—๋Š” ๋ฌด์Šจ์ผ์ด ๋ฒŒ์–ด์งˆ๊นŒ์š”?
07:20
And that's a big problem,
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๊ทธ๊ฑด ์ •๋ง ํฐ ๋ฌธ์ œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:22
and we'll return to it in just a second.
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์ด๋ฌธ์ œ๋„ ์ž ์‹œํ›„์— ๋Œ์•„๋ณด๋„๋ก ํ•˜์ฃ .
07:24
So there's my first message,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ €์˜ ์ฒซ๋ฒˆ์งธ ๋ฉ”์„ธ์ง€๋Š” ์ด๋ ‡์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:26
that if you are to pass through these turbulent times
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒฉ๋™์˜ ์‹œ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์ง€๋‚œ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
07:29
more or less turbulently,
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์ ๋‹นํžˆ ๊ฒฉ๋™์ ์ธ ์‹œ๊ธฐ์ฃ ,
07:32
then our success in doing that
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์กฐ์ง์„ ์„ฑ๊ณต์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
07:34
will in large measure depend on our capacity
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๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒํ•œ ์ง€์—ญ์„ ํ•ฉ๋ฆฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ
07:36
to bring sensible governance
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๊ด€ํ•  ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š๋ƒ์—
07:38
to the global space.
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๋งŽ์€ ๋ถ€๋ถ„์ด ๋‹ฌ๋ ค ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
07:40
And watch that beginning to happen.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ ์‹œ๋ฐœ์ ์„ ๋ณด๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:43
My second point is,
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์ €์˜ ๋‘๋ฒˆ์งธ ์š”์ ์€ ์ด๋ ‡์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:45
and I know I don't have to talk to an audience like this
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์ €๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์—๊ฒŒ
07:47
about such a thing,
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๋งํ•  ํ•„์š”๋Š” ์—†๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค๋งŒ,
07:49
but power is not just shifting vertically,
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๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋‹จ์ˆœํžˆ ์ˆ˜์ง์ ์œผ๋กœ๋งŒ ์ด๋™ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:52
it's also shifting horizontally.
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์ˆ˜ํ‰์ ์œผ๋กœ๋„ ์ด๋™ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:54
You might argue that the story, the history of civilizations,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ๋ฌธ๋ช…์˜ ์—ญ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ๋Œ€์–‘์„ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์œผ๋กœ
07:57
has been civilizations gathered around seas --
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๋ชจ์—ฌ์ง„ ์—ญ์‚ฌ๋ผ๋Š”๊ฒƒ์— ๋‹ค์†Œ ์ด๊ฒฌ์„ ๊ฐ€์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:00
with the first ones around the Mediterranean,
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์ฒ˜์Œ์—๋Š” ์ง€์ค‘ํ•ด ์ฃผ๋ณ€์— ์ƒ๊ฒผ๊ตฌ์š”,
08:03
the more recent ones in the ascendents of Western power around the Atlantic.
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์ตœ๊ทผ์—๋Š” ๋Œ€์„œ์–‘ ์ฃผ๋ณ€์˜ ์„œ๊ตฌ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ๋“ค์˜ ์กฐ์ƒ๋“ค์ด ์žˆ์ฃ .
08:07
Well it seems to me
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ํฌ๊ด„์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋งํ•˜์ž๋ฉด,
08:09
that we're now seeing a fundamental shift of power, broadly speaking,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ง€๊ธˆ ๋Œ€์„œ์–‘ ์ฃผ๋ณ€ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ
08:12
away from nations gathered around the Atlantic [seaboard]
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ํƒœํ‰์–‘ ์ฃผ๋ณ€ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค๋กœ์˜ ๊ทผ๋ณธ์ ์ธ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์ด๋™์„
08:15
to the nations gathered around the Pacific rim.
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๋ชฉ๊ฒฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:17
Now that begins with economic power,
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ํ•ญ์ƒ ์‹œ์ž‘์€ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์ ์ธ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์˜
08:19
but that's the way it always begins.
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์ด๋™์—์„œ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜์ฃ .
08:21
You already begin to see the development of foreign policies,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ์ด์ œ ์„ฑ์žฅํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”
08:24
the augmentation of military budgets
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๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค์˜ ๋Œ€์™ธ์ •์ฑ…์ด๋‚˜ ๊ตฐ๋น„์ฆ๊ฐ•์—์„œ
08:26
occurring in the other growing powers in the world.
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๊ทธ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์ด๋ฏธ ๋ณด๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:29
I think actually
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ์ €๋Š” ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์„œ๊ตฌ์—์„œ ๋™์–‘์œผ๋กœ์˜
08:31
this is not so much a shift from the West to the East;
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์ด๋™์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ง€๋Š” ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:33
something different is happening.
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๋ญ”๊ฐ€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํ˜„์ƒ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ฃ .
08:35
My guess is, for what it's worth,
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์ œ์ƒ๊ฐ์ผ ๋ฟ์ด์ง€๋งŒ ์ €์˜ ์ถ”์ธก์€
08:37
is that the United States will remain
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ํ–ฅํ›„ 10๋…„์—์„œ 15๋…„ ์ •๋„๋Š”
08:39
the most powerful nation on earth
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์ง€๊ตฌ์ƒ์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋กœ ๊ณ„์†
08:41
for the next 10 years, 15,
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๋‚จ๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ
08:44
but the context in which she holds her power
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์ง€๊ธˆ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ง‰๊ฐ•ํ•œ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์€
08:47
has now radically altered; it has radically changed.
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๊ธ‰์ง„์ ์œผ๋กœ ์กฐ์ •๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ธ‰์ž‘์Šค๋Ÿฝ๊ฒŒ ๋ณ€ํ™”ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด์š”.
08:50
We are coming out of 50 years,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ƒ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํŠน์ดํ•œ
08:52
most unusual years, of history
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50๋…„์˜ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ์ง€๋‚˜ ์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:54
in which we have had a totally mono-polar world,
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๊ทธ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„๋™์•ˆ ๋‹จ๊ทน์˜ ์„ธ์ƒ์—์„œ ์‚ด์•„์™€ ์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:57
in which every compass needle
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฑฐ์ธ์ด ์ง€๋ฐฐํ•˜๋Š”
08:59
for or against
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์„ธ์ƒ์—์„œ ์‚ด๋ฉด์„œ
09:01
has to be referenced by its position to Washington --
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์›Œ์‹ฑํ„ด์˜ ์ž…์žฅ์ด ์„ธ์ƒ ๋ชจ๋“  ์ง€์นจ์ด
09:04
a world bestrode by a single colossus.
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๋˜์–ด์•ผ๋งŒ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:08
But that's not a usual case in history.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ƒ ํ”ํžˆ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ผ์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:10
In fact, what's now emerging
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ์ง€๊ธˆ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š” ๋ณ€ํ™”๊ฐ€
09:12
is the much more normal case of history.
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์—ญ์‚ฌ์ƒ ๋” ๋ณดํŽธ์ ์ธ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:14
You're beginning to see the emergence
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ์ด์ œ ๋‹ค๊ทนํ™” ์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ์ถœํ˜„์„
09:16
of a multi-polar world.
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๋ณด๊ณ  ๊ณ„์‹œ๋Š”๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:18
Up until now,
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์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€๋Š”
09:20
the United States has been the dominant feature of our world.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ์ง€๋ฐฐ์„ธ๋ ฅ์ด์—ˆ์ง€์š”.
09:23
They will remain the most powerful nation,
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๋‹น๋ถ„๊ฐ„๋„ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€
09:25
but they will be the most powerful nation
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์ ์  ์ปค์ ธ๊ฐ€๋Š” ๋‹ค๊ทนํ™” ์„ธ๊ณ„์—์„œ
09:27
in an increasingly multi-polar world.
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋กœ ๋‚จ์„๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:29
And you begin to see the alternative centers of power building up --
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅํ˜•์„ฑ์˜ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ค‘์‹ฌ์„ ๋ณด๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:32
in China, of course,
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๋ฌผ๋ก  ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ์„ฑ๊ณต์ด ์‰ฝ์ง€๋งŒ์€ ์•Š๋‹ค๋Š” ์ œ ์ถ”์ธก์„ ๋“ค๋”๋ผ๋„
09:34
though my own guess is that China's ascent to greatness is not smooth.
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์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์ค‘์‹ฌ์˜ ์˜ˆ์ด์ฃ .
09:37
It's going to be quite grumpy
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์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ฐœํ˜์„ ์ด๋ฃฌํ›„์—
09:39
as China begins to democratize her society
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์‚ฌํšŒ๋ฅผ ๋ฏผ์ฃผํ™”ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•œ๊ฒƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋Š”
09:41
after liberalizing her economy.
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๊ฝค ์ฐœ์ฐœํ•œ ์ผ์ด์ฃ .
09:43
But that's a subject of a different discussion.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ๊ฑด ๋‹ค์†Œ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ฃผ์ œ์ธ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:46
You see India, you see Brazil.
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์ธ๋„๋‚˜ ๋ธŒ๋ผ์งˆ์„ ๋ณด์„ธ์š”.
09:48
You see increasingly
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์œ ๋Ÿฝ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ธ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ณผ ๋•Œ
09:50
that the world now looks actually, for us Europeans,
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์„ธ์ƒ์€ 19์„ธ๊ธฐ ์œ ๋Ÿฝ๊ณผ ์ƒ๋‹นํžˆ
09:53
much more like Europe in the 19th century.
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๋น„์Šทํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:56
Europe in the 19th century:
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19์„ธ๊ธฐ ์œ ๋Ÿฝ์—,
09:58
a great British foreign secretary, Lord Canning,
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๋Œ€์˜์ œ๊ตญ์˜ ์™ธ๊ต๋Œ€์‚ฌ์ธ ์บ๋‹ ๊ฒฝ์€
10:00
used to describe it as the "European concert of powers."
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"๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์˜ ์œ ๋Ÿฝ์ ์ธ ํ–ฅ์—ฐ"์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์„ธ์ƒ์„ ํ‘œํ˜„ํ•˜๊ณค ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:03
There was a balance, a five-sided balance.
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5๊ฐœ ์กฐ๊ฐ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„์ ธ ๊ท ํ˜•์„ ์ด๋ฃจ๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:05
Britain always played to the balance.
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์˜๊ตญ์ด ํ•ญ์ƒ ๊ทธ ๊ท ํ˜•์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ–ˆ์ฃ .
10:08
If Paris got together with Berlin,
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ํ”„๋ž‘์Šค๊ฐ€ ๋…์ผ๊ณผ ์—ฐํ•ฉํ•˜๋ฉด,
10:10
Britain got together with Vienna and Rome to provide a counterbalance.
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์˜๊ตญ์€ ์˜ค์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆฌ์•„, ์ดํƒœ๋ฆฌ์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜ํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ท ํ˜•์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:13
Now notice,
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์ฃผ๋ชฉํ•˜์…”์•ผํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
10:15
in a period which is dominated by a mono-polar world,
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์„ธ์ƒ์ด ๋‹จ์ผ ์„ธ๋ ฅ์— ์˜ํ•ด ์ง€๋ฐฐ๋˜์—ˆ๋˜ ์‹œ๊ธฐ์—๋Š”
10:17
you have fixed alliances --
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๊ณ ์ •์ ์ธ ๋™๋งน์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. --
10:19
NATO, the Warsaw Pact.
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๋‚˜ํ† ์™€ ๋ฐ”๋ฅด์ƒค๋ฐ” ํ˜‘์ • ๊ฐ™์€๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .
10:21
A fixed polarity of power
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๋‹จ์ผ ์„ธ๋ ฅ์œผ๋กœ ๊ณ ์ฐฉ๋œ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์€
10:23
means fixed alliances.
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๊ณ ์ •๋œ ๋™๋งน์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:25
But a multiple polarity of power
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์€
10:27
means shifting and changing alliances.
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๋™๋งน์„ ์›€์ง์ด๊ฒŒํ•˜๊ณ  ๋ณ€ํ™”์‹œํ‚ค์ฃ .
10:29
And that's the world we're coming into,
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์ง€๊ธˆ ์„ธ์ƒ์ด ๊ฐ€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:31
in which we will increasingly see
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐˆ์ˆ˜๋ก ๋งŽ์ด ๋ณด๊ฒŒ๋˜๋Š”
10:33
that our alliances are not fixed.
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๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ๋™๋งน์ด ์ถœํ˜„ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋Š”๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
10:35
Canning, the great British foreign secretary once said,
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์˜๊ตญ์˜ ์™ธ๋ฌด์žฅ๊ด€์ธ ์บ๋‹ ๊ฒฝ์ด ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งํ•œ์ ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:37
"Britain has a common interest,
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"์˜๊ตญ์€ ๊ณต๋™์˜ ๊ด€์‹ฌ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ
10:39
but no common allies."
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๊ณต๋™์˜ ๋™๋งน๊ตญ์„ ์›ํ•˜์ง€๋Š” ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค."
10:41
And we will see increasingly
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์„ธ์ƒ์—์„œ
10:43
that even we in the West
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๋ญ”๊ฐ€ ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์ง€๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๋ž€๋‹ค๋ฉด,
10:45
will reach out, have to reach out,
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์„œ๊ตฌ์—์„œ ์กฐ์ฐจ๋„ ๋Œ€์„œ์–‘ ์ฃผ๋ณ€์˜
10:47
beyond the cozy circle of the Atlantic powers
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์•ˆ๋ฝํ•œ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์•ˆ์—์„œ ๋‚˜์™€์„œ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์™€๋„
10:49
to make alliances with others
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์†์„ ์žก์•„์•ผํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„
10:51
if we want to get things done in the world.
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๊ณ„์†ํ•ด์„œ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:54
Note, that when we went into Libya,
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๋ฆฌ๋น„์•„ ์‚ฌํƒœ๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋ฉด,
10:56
it was not good enough for the West to do it alone;
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์„œ๊ตฌ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค๋งŒ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ์‚ฌํƒœ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ์ด ์•ˆ๋œ๋‹ค๋Š”๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:58
we had to bring others in.
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๊ฐœ์ž…ํ•ด์•ผํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:00
We had to bring, in this case, the Arab League in.
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๋ฆฌ๋น„์•„์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์—๋Š” ์•„๋ž๊ถŒ์„ ๋Œ์–ด ๋“ค์˜€์ฃ .
11:03
My guess is Iraq and Afghanistan are the last times
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์„œ๊ตฌ์„ธ๋ ฅ์ด ์Šค์Šค๋กœ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ์„ ํ•˜๋ ค๊ณ  ํ–ˆ๋˜๊ฒƒ์€
11:06
when the West has tried to do it themselves,
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์•„๋งˆ๋„ ์ด๋ผํฌ์™€ ์•„ํ”„์นด๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„ ์‚ฌํƒœ๊ฐ€ ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰ ์ผํ…๋ฐ์š”,
11:08
and we haven't succeeded.
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์„ฑ๊ณต๋„ ๋ชปํ–ˆ์ฃ .
11:10
My guess
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์ œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์—๋Š”
11:12
is that we're reaching the beginning of the end of 400 years --
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์ด์ œ 400๋…„ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์˜ ๋์— ๋‹ค๋‹ค๋ฅธ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:15
I say 400 years because it's the end of the Ottoman Empire --
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์˜คํŠธ๋งŒ ์ œ๊ตญ์˜ ์ข…๋ง์˜ ๋์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์˜๋ฏธ์—์„œ 400๋…„์„ ๋งํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. --
11:18
of the hegemony of Western power,
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์„œ์–‘์˜ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ, ๋‹จ์ฒด, ๊ฐ€์น˜๊ด€์˜ ํŒจ๊ถŒ์„
11:20
Western institutions and Western values.
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๋Œ€ํ‘œํ•˜๋Š” ์˜คํŠธ๋งŒ ์ œ๊ตญ ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:24
You know, up until now, if the West got its act together,
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์•„๋งˆ ์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ์„œ๊ตฌ์„ธ๋ ฅ์ด ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ•ด์™”๋‹ค๋ฉด,
11:27
it could propose and dispose
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์„ธ์ƒ์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์„
11:29
in every corner of the world.
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์ œ์•ˆํ•˜๊ณ  ๋ฐฐ์น˜ํ–ˆ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:31
But that's no longer true.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด์ œ ๋”์ด์ƒ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:33
Take the last financial crisis
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2์ฐจ์„ธ๊ณ„๋Œ€์ „ ํ›„์˜
11:35
after the Second World War.
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์ง€๋‚œ ๊ธˆ์œต์œ„๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ณผ๊นŒ์š”.
11:37
The West got together --
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์„œ๊ตฌ์„ธ๋ ฅ์€ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๋ญ‰์ณค์ฃ . --
11:39
the Bretton Woods Institution, World Bank, International Monetary Fund --
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๋ธŒ๋ ˆํŠผ ์šฐ์ฆˆ ์œ„์›ํšŒ, ์„ธ๊ณ„์€ํ–‰, IMF ๋ง์ด์ฃ . --
11:42
the problem solved.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ํ•ด๊ฒฐ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:44
Now we have to call in others.
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์ด์ œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋‹ค๋ฅธ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋Œ์–ด๋“ค์—ฌ์•ผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:46
Now we have to create the G20.
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G20์„ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด์•ผ ํ•˜์ฃ .
11:48
Now we have to reach beyond the cozy circle
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์ด์ œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์„œ๊ตฌ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค์ด ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด๋†“์€
11:50
of our Western friends.
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์•ˆ๋ฝํ•œ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์„ ๋ฒ—์–ด๋‚˜์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:52
Let me make a prediction for you,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์˜ˆ์ƒ์„ ํ•˜๋‚˜ ํ•ด๋ณผ๊ป˜์š”,
11:54
which is probably even more startling.
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์•„๋งˆ ๋” ๊นœ์ง ๋†€๋ผ์‹ค์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:57
I suspect we are now reaching the end
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์„œ๊ตฌ์˜ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์ด ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ• ๋•Œ
12:00
of 400 years
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ 400๋…„ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์˜ ๋์— ๋‹ค๋‹ค๋ฅด๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š”๊ฒƒ์ด
12:02
when Western power was enough.
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๋‹ค์†Œ ์˜์‹ฌ์Šค๋Ÿฝ๊ธฐ๋Š” ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:04
People say to me, "The Chinese, of course,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ €์—๊ฒŒ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:06
they'll never get themselves involved
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"์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ๊ฒฐ์ฝ” ํ‰ํ™”ํ˜‘์ • ๋˜๋Š” ๋‹ค์ž๊ฐ„ ํ‰ํ™”ํ˜‘์ •์—
12:08
in peace-making, multilateral peace-making around the world."
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๋…ธ๋ ฅํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค."
12:10
Oh yes? Why not?
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์•„ ๊ทธ๋ž˜์š”? ์™œ ๊ทธ๋Ÿด๊นŒ์š”?
12:12
How many Chinese troops
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์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋งŽ์€
12:14
are serving under the blue beret, serving under the blue flag,
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์ค‘๊ตญ ๊ตฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ์œ ์—” ํ‰ํ™”์œ ์ง€๊ตฐ์œผ๋กœ
12:16
serving under the U.N. command in the world today?
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๊ทผ๋ฌดํ•˜๋Š”์ง€ ์•„์„ธ์š”?
12:18
3,700.
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3,700๋ช…์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:20
How many Americans? 11.
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๋ฏธ๊ตฐ์€ ๋ช‡๋ช…์ผ๊นŒ์š”? 11๋ช…์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:23
What is the largest naval contingent
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์†Œ๋ง๋ฆฌ์•„ ํ•ด์  ์†Œํƒ•์„ ์œ„ํ•ด ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋งŽ์ด
12:25
tackling the issue of Somali pirates?
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ํ•ด๊ตฐ์„ ํŒŒ๊ฒฌํ•œ ๋‚˜๋ผ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋””์ผ๊นŒ์š”?
12:28
The Chinese naval contingent.
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์ค‘๊ตญ ํ•ด๊ตฐ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:30
Of course they are, they are a mercantilist nation.
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๋ฌผ๋ก  ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์ƒ์—…์ฃผ์˜์ ์ธ ๋‚˜๋ผ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:32
They want to keep the sea lanes open.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ํ•ด์ƒ ๊ต์—ญ๋กœ๋ฅผ ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์–ดํ•˜์ฃ .
12:34
Increasingly, we are going to have to do business
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๊ฐˆ์ˆ˜๋ก ๋”๋งŽ์ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ฐ€์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ณต์œ ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๊ณผ
12:37
with people with whom we do not share values,
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์‚ฌ์—…์„ ํ•ด์•ผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:40
but with whom, for the moment, we share common interests.
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ํ•œ๋™์•ˆ์€ ๊ทธ๋“ค๊ณผ ๊ณต๋™์˜ ๊ด€์‹ฌ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ๊ณต์œ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:43
It's a whole new different way
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์ง€๊ธˆ ๋– ์˜ค๋ฅด๋Š” ์„ธ์ƒ์„
12:45
of looking at the world that is now emerging.
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๋ฐ”๋ผ๋ณด๋Š” ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์‹œ๊ฐ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:48
And here's the third factor,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์—ฌ๊ธฐ ์™„์ „ํžˆ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ
12:50
which is totally different.
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์„ธ๋ฒˆ์งธ ์š”์†Œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:53
Today in our modern world,
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์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ํ˜„๋Œ€ ์„ธ๊ณ„์—์„œ,
12:55
because of the Internet,
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์ธํ„ฐ๋„ท์œผ๋กœ
12:57
because of the kinds of things people have been talking about here,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์—์„œ ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋“ค ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ
13:00
everything is connected to everything.
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๋ชจ๋“ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ด์ œ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ๋˜์–ด์ ธ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:04
We are now interdependent.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด์ œ ์ƒํ˜ธ ์ข…์†์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:06
We are now interlocked,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด์ œ ์„œ๋กœ ์„œ๋กœ ๋งž๋ฌผ๋ ค ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:08
as nations, as individuals,
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ๋‚˜๋ผ์ผ์ˆ˜๋„, ๊ฐœ์ธ์ผ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์ฃ .
13:10
in a way which has never been the case before,
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์ „์—๋Š” ์ „ํ˜€ ์—†์—ˆ๋˜ ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด์ฃ .
13:12
never been the case before.
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์ „ํ˜€ ์—†์—ˆ๋˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์˜€์–ด์š”.
13:15
The interrelationship of nations,
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๋ฌผ๋ก  ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๊ฐ„์˜ ์ƒํ˜ธ๊ด€๊ณ„๋Š”
13:17
well it's always existed.
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์–ธ์ œ๋‚˜ ์กด์žฌํ–ˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:19
Diplomacy is about managing the interrelationship of nations.
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๋ฏผ์ฃผ์ฃผ์˜๋Š” ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€๊ฐ„์˜ ์ƒํ˜ธ๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋‹ค๋ฃจ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:22
But now we are intimately locked together.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด์ œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์•„์ฃผ ์นœ๋ฐ€ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์„œ๋กœ ๋งž๋ฌผ๋ ค ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:24
You get swine flu in Mexico,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์กฐ๋ฅ˜๋…๊ฐ์„ ๋ฉ•์‹œ์ฝ”์—์„œ ์–ป์—ˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
13:26
it's a problem for Charles de Gaulle Airport
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24์‹œ๊ฐ„ ํ›„์—๋Š” ํ”„๋ž‘์Šค์˜
13:28
24 hours later.
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์ƒค๋ฅผ๋ฅด ๋“œ ๊ณจ ๊ณตํ•ญ์—์„œ๋„ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:30
Lehman Brothers goes down, the whole lot collapses.
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๋ฆฌ๋จผ ๋ธŒ๋ผ๋”์Šค๊ฐ€ ๋งํ•จ์œผ๋กœ ํ•ด์„œ ์ „์ฒด ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ด ๋ถ•๊ดดํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:33
There are fires in the steppes of Russia,
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๋Ÿฌ์‹œ์•„์˜ ์Šคํ…์ง€์—ญ์—์„œ ํ™”์žฌ๊ฐ€ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋ฉด,
13:36
food riots in Africa.
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์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด์—์„œ ์‹๋Ÿ‰ํญ๋™์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:38
We are all now deeply, deeply, deeply interconnected.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋‘ ์•„์ฃผ ๊นŠ์ˆ™ํžˆ ์„œ๋กœ ์„œ๋กœ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์–ด์š”.
13:42
And what that means
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
13:45
is the idea of a nation state acting alone,
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๊ตญ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ํ™€๋กœ ํ–‰๋™ํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜,
13:49
not connected with others,
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋‚˜ ๊ธฐ๊ตฌ์™€ ์—ฐ๊ณ„ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ฑฐ๋‚˜,
13:51
not working with others,
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์„ธ๋ ฅ๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๋ฉด,
13:53
is no longer a viable proposition.
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๋”์ด์ƒ ๋…์ž์ƒ์กด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์ผ์ˆ˜ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:55
Because the actions of a nation state
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๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ํ–‰๋™๋“ค์€ ๋‹จ์ง€ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์ž์ฒด์—๋งŒ
13:58
are neither confined to itself,
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๊ตญํ•œ ๋˜์ง€๋„ ์•Š๊ณ ,
14:00
nor is it sufficient for the nation state itself
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๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์˜ํ† ๋ฅผ ์ง€ํ‚ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋งŒ์œผ๋กœ
14:02
to control its own territory,
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์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:04
because the effects outside the nation state
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๋˜ํ•œ ๋‚˜๋ผ ๋ฐ–์—์„œ ๋ฒŒ์–ด์ง€๋Š” ์˜ํ–ฅ๋“ค์ด
14:07
are now beginning to affect what happens inside them.
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์ž๊ตญ๋‚ด์—์„œ ๋ฒŒ์–ด์ง€๋Š” ์ผ์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์ฃผ๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
14:10
I was a young soldier
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์ €๋Š” ์˜๊ตญ ์ œ๊ตญ์ „์Ÿ์˜ ๋ง‰๋ฐ”์ง€์—
14:12
in the last of the small empire wars of Britain.
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์ฐธ์ „ํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ ์ Š์€ ๊ตฐ์ธ์ด์—ˆ์ฃ .
14:16
At that time, the defense of my country
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๋‹น์‹œ์— ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋‚˜๋ผ์˜ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ์€
14:18
was about one thing and one thing only:
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์˜ค์ง ํ•œ๊ฐ€์ง€์—๋งŒ ์ง‘์ค‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค :
14:21
how strong was our army, how strong was our air force,
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๊ตฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๊ฐ•ํ•œ๊ฐ€, ๊ณต๊ตฐ๋ ฅ์ด ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๊ฐ•๋Œ€ํ•œ๊ฐ€,
14:24
how strong was our navy and how strong were our allies.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ํ•ด๊ตฐ๋ ฅ์€ ๋ง‰๊ฐ•ํ•œ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋™๋งน๊ตญ๋“ค์€ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๊ฐ•ํ•œ๊ฐ€ ์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:26
That was when the enemy was outside the walls.
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์ ๊ตฐ์ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์˜ํ†  ๋ฐ–์— ์žˆ์„๋•Œ์˜ ์ผ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:28
Now the enemy is inside the walls.
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์ด์ œ ์ ์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋‹ด๋ฒผ๋ฝ ์•ˆ์— ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:31
Now if I want to talk about the defense of my country,
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์ด์ œ ๋‚ด ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
14:33
I have to speak to the Minister of Health
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์ €๋Š” ๊ฑด๊ฐ•๋ณต์ง€๋ถ€ ์žฅ๊ด€์—๊ฒŒ ๋งํ•ด์•ผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:35
because pandemic disease is a threat to my security,
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์ „์—ผ๋ณ‘์ด ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์•ˆ๋ณด์— ์œ„ํ˜‘์ด ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
14:38
I have to speak to the Minister of Agriculture
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๋˜ํ•œ ์‹๋Ÿ‰ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ €์˜ ์•ˆ์ „์— ์œ„ํ˜‘์ด ๋˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
14:40
because food security is a threat to my security,
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๋†๋ฆผ์ž์›๋ถ€ ์žฅ๊ด€๊ณผ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:42
I have to speak to the Minister of Industry
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ฒจ๋‹จ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์‹œ์„ค์˜ ์ทจ์•ฝ์„ฑ์ด
14:46
because the fragility of our hi-tech infrastructure
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์ ๋“ค์˜ ๊ณต๊ฒฉ์ง€์ ์ด ๋˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
14:49
is now a point of attack for our enemies --
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์‚ฐ์—…๋ถ€ ์žฅ๊ด€๊ณผ ์•ˆ๋ณด์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ ํ•ด์•ผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. --
14:51
as we see from cyber warfare --
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์ •๋ณด์œ ์ถœ๊ฐ™์€ ์‚ฌ์ด๋ฒ„ ์ „์Ÿ์—์„œ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ฃ . --
14:53
I have to speak to the Minister of Home Affairs
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๊ตญ๋‚ด์— ๋ˆ„๊ฐ€ ์ž…๊ตญํ•˜๋Š”์ง€,
14:56
because who has entered my country,
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๋„์‹ฌ์˜ ์ฃผํƒ๊ฐ€์— ๋ˆ„๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ๋Š”์ง€๋Š”
14:58
who lives in that terraced house in that inner city
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๋‚ด ๋‚˜๋ผ์— ๋ฌด์Šจ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š”์ง€์™€ ์ง์ ‘์ ์ธ ์—ฐ๊ด€์ด ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
15:01
has a direct effect on what happens in my country --
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ํ–‰์ •์•ˆ์ „๋ถ€ ์žฅ๊ด€๊ณผ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•ด์•ผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. --
15:03
as we in London saw in the 7/7 bombings.
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์ง€๋‚œ 7์›” 7์ผ ๋Ÿฐ๋˜์˜ ํญํƒ„ํ…Œ๋Ÿฌ์—์„œ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:07
It's no longer the case that the security of a country
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์ด์ œ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์•ˆ๋ณด๊ฐ€ ๋‹จ์ˆœํ•˜๊ฒŒ
15:10
is simply a matter for its soldiers and its ministry of defense.
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๊ตฐ์ธ๊ณผ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋ถ€ ์žฅ๊ด€์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋งŒ์€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:13
It's its capacity to lock together its institutions.
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๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์ œ๋„์™€ ๊ธฐ๊ด€๋“ค์„ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๋ฌถ๋Š”๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:16
And this tells you something very important.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์—๊ฒŒ ๋งค์šฐ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ์ ์„ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:19
It tells you that, in fact,
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ์ˆ˜์ง์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋˜๋Š”
15:21
our governments, vertically constructed,
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์‚ฐ์—…ํ˜๋ช…์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์ ์ธ ๋ชจ๋ธ๋กœ ๊ตฌ์„ฑ๋œ
15:24
constructed on the economic model of the Industrial Revolution --
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์ •๋ถ€๋Š” ์™„์ „ํžˆ ์ž˜๋ชป๋œ
15:26
vertical hierarchy, specialization of tasks,
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๊ตฌ์กฐ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. --
15:29
command structures --
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์ˆ˜์ง์ ์ธ ๊ณ„์ธต๊ตฌ์กฐ, ๊ณผ์—…์˜ ์ „๋ฌธ์„ฑ,
15:31
have got the wrong structures completely.
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๋ช…๋ น ์กฐ์ง๋“ค ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:33
You in business know
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์‚ฌ์—…์„ ํ•˜์‹œ๋Š” ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€
15:35
that the paradigm structure of our time, ladies and gentlemen,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์‹œ๋Œ€์˜ ํŒจ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ค์ž„์˜ ๊ตฌ์กฐ๊ฐ€
15:37
is the network.
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๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ๋ผ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:39
It's your capacity to network that matters,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์˜ ์ •๋ถ€์•ˆ์—์„œ ๋˜๋Š” ์™ธ๋ถ€์™€
15:41
both within your governments and externally.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์˜ ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:44
So here is Ashdown's third law.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์• ์‰ฌ๋‹ค์šด์˜ ์„ธ๋ฒˆ์งธ ๋ฒ•์น™์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:46
By the way, don't ask me about Ashdown's first law and second law
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ๋ง์ด์ฃ , ์• ์‰ฌ๋‹ค์šด์˜ ์ฒซ๋ฒˆ์งธ์™€ ๋‘๋ฒˆ์งธ ๋ฒ•์น™์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ๋ฌป์ง€ ๋งˆ์„ธ์š”.
15:49
because I haven't invented those yet;
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์•„์ง ์•ˆ๋งŒ๋“ค์—ˆ์œผ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
15:51
it always sounds better if there's a third law, doesn't it?
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์„ธ๋ฒˆ์งธ ๋ฒ•์น™์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ ํ•˜๋ฉด ๋” ์ข‹์•„ ๋ณด์ด์ง€ ์•Š๋‚˜์š”?
15:53
Ashdown's third law is that in the modern age,
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์• ์‰ฌ๋‹ค์šด์˜ ์„ธ๋ฒˆ์งธ ๋ฒ•์น™์€ ๋ชจ๋“ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ๋˜๋Š”
15:56
where everything is connected to everything,
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ํ˜„๋Œ€ ์„ธ์ƒ์— ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:58
the most important thing about what you can do
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€
16:01
is what you can do with others.
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:03
The most important bit about your structure --
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์ •๋ถ€์— ์žˆ๋˜, ๊ตฐ์ธ์ด๋˜,
16:05
whether you're a government, whether you're an army regiment,
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๋˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ์—…์„ ํ•˜๋˜์ง€๊ฐ„์—,
16:07
whether you're a business --
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์˜ ์กฐ์ง์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€
16:09
is your docking points, your interconnectors,
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ถ€๋ถ„๊ณผ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์˜
16:11
your capacity to network with others.
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์ ‘ํ•ฉ์ , ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ์  ๊ฐ™์€ ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:13
You understand that in industry;
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์ •๋ถ€๋Š” ์ดํ•ด๋ฅผ ๋ชปํ•˜๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ
16:15
governments don't.
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์‚ฐ์—…์— ์ข…์‚ฌํ•˜์‹œ๋Š” ๋ถ„๋“ค์€ ์ดํ•ด ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:18
But now one final thing.
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๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ ํ•œ๊ฐ€์ง€๋Š”์š”.
16:20
If it is the case, ladies and gentlemen -- and it is --
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์‹ ์‚ฌ, ์ˆ™๋…€ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„,
16:23
that we are now locked together
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ์ด์™€ ๊ฐ™์ด ์ „์—๋Š” ์ „ํ˜€ ์—†์—ˆ๋˜ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ
16:25
in a way that has never been quite the same before,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์„œ๋กœ ๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๋ผ๋ฉด,
16:27
then it's also the case that we share a destiny with each other.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์„œ๋กœ๊ฐ€ ์šด๋ช…์„ ํ•จ๊ป˜ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:31
Suddenly and for the very first time,
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๋งจ ์ฒ˜์Œ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ,
16:34
collective defense, the thing that has dominated us
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๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์•ˆ๋ณด์˜ ๊ฐœ๋…์œผ๋กœ ์ง‘๋‹จ๋ฐฉ์œ„ ๊ฐ™์ด
16:37
as the concept of securing our nations,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์ง€๋ฐฐํ•ด์™”๋˜ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค๋กœ๋Š”
16:39
is no longer enough.
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์ด์ œ ๋”์ด์ƒ ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:41
It used to be the case
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๊ทธ๋™์•ˆ์€
16:43
that if my tribe was more powerful than their tribe, I was safe;
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ฏผ์กฑ์ด ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฏผ์กฑ๋ณด๋‹ค ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•˜๋ฉด, ์•ˆ์ „ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:45
if my country was more powerful than their country, I was safe;
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๋‚ด ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋ณด๋‹ค ํž˜์— ์Ž„๋‹ค๋ฉด, ์•ˆ์ „ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:48
my alliance, like NATO, was more powerful than their alliance, I was safe.
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๋‚˜ํ† ์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋‚˜์˜ ๋™๋งน์ด ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋™๋งน๋ณด๋‹ค ๊ฐ•ํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด, ์•ˆ์ „ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:51
It is no longer the case.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด์ œ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๋Š” ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:53
The advent of the interconnectedness
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์ƒํ˜ธ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ์„ฑ์˜ ๋„๋ž˜์™€
16:56
and of the weapons of mass destruction
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๋Œ€๋Ÿ‰ ์‚ด์ƒ ๋ฌด๊ธฐ๋Š” ์ ์ ๋”
16:58
means that, increasingly,
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๋‚˜์˜ ์ ๊ณผ ์šด๋ช…์„ ๊ฐ™์ด ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„
17:00
I share a destiny with my enemy.
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์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:02
When I was a diplomat
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์ œ๊ฐ€ 1970๋…„์—
17:04
negotiating the disarmament treaties with the Soviet Union
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์ œ๋„ค๋ฐ”์—์„œ ๊ตฌ์†Œ๋ จ๊ณผ ๋ฌด์žฅํ•ด์ œ ์กฐ์•ฝ์„
17:07
in Geneva in the 1970s,
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ํ˜‘์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ์™ธ๊ต๊ด€์ด์—ˆ์„ ๋•Œ,
17:09
we succeeded because we understood
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ทธ๋“ค๊ณผ ์šด๋ช…์„ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ–ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
17:11
we shared a destiny with them.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์„ฑ๊ณตํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:13
Collective security is not enough.
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์ง‘๋‹จ์ ์ธ ์•ˆ๋ณด๋กœ๋Š” ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:16
Peace has come to Northern Ireland
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๋ถ์•„์ผ๋žœ๋“œ์—์„œ๋Š” ์ œ๋กœ์„ฌ ๊ฒŒ์ž„์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ์‹คํŒจํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„
17:18
because both sides realized that the zero-sum game couldn't work.
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์ธ์‹ํ–ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ํ‰ํ™”๊ฐ€ ์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:21
They shared a destiny with their enemies.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ์ ๊ณผ ์šด๋ช…์„ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:24
One of the great barriers to peace in the Middle East
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์ค‘๋™์ง€๋ฐฉ ํ‰ํ™”์— ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ์žฅ๋ฒฝ์ค‘์— ํ•˜๋‚˜๋Š”
17:26
is that both sides, both Israel and, I think, the Palestinians,
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์ด์Šค๋ผ์—˜๊ณผ ํŒ”๋ ˆ์Šคํƒ€์ธ ์–‘์ชฝ ๋ชจ๋‘
17:29
do not understand
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์ง‘๋‹จ์ ์ธ ์šด๋ช…์„ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„
17:31
that they share a collective destiny.
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์ดํ•ดํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:34
And so suddenly, ladies and gentlemen,
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์‹ ์‚ฌ, ์ˆ™๋…€ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„,
17:36
what has been the proposition
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์‹œ๋Œ€๋ฅผ ํ˜๋Ÿฌ ๋‚ด๋ ค์˜จ
17:38
of visionaries and poets down the ages
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์˜ˆ์ง€์ž์™€ ์‹œ์ธ์˜ ์ƒ๊ฐ์€
17:41
becomes something we have to take seriously
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๊ณต๊ณต์ •์ฑ…์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋กœ ์ง„์ง€ํ•˜๊ฒŒ
17:43
as a matter of public policy.
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์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด์•ผํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:45
I started with a poem, I'll end with one.
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์‹œ ํ•œํŽธ์œผ๋กœ ์ด ๊ฐ•์—ฐ์„ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์œผ๋‹ˆ ์‹œ ํ•œํŽธ์œผ๋กœ ๋์„ ๋‚ด๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:48
The great poem of John Donne's.
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์กด ๋˜์˜ ์œ ๋ช…ํ•œ ์‹œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:51
"Send not for whom the bell tolls."
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"๋ˆ„๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ข…์„ ์šธ๋ฆฌ๋Š”์ง€ ์•Œ๋ ค ํ•˜์ง€ ๋งˆ๋ผ"
17:55
The poem is called "No Man is an Island."
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๊ทธ์‹œ๋Š” "๋ˆ„๊ตฌ๋„ ํ™€๋กœ ์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค" ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถˆ๋ฆฌ๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:57
And it goes:
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์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:59
"Every man's death affected me,
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"๋ชจ๋“  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์˜ ์ฃฝ์Œ์ด ๋‚˜์—๊ฒŒ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์ณค๋‹ค.
18:02
for I am involved in mankind,
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๋‚ด๊ฐ€ ์‚ด์•„ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋™์•ˆ์—,
18:04
send not to ask
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๋ˆ„๊ฐ€ ์ข…์„ ์šธ๋ ธ๋Š”์ง€
18:06
for whom the bell tolls,
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์•Œ๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•˜์ง€ ๋งˆ๋ผ,
18:08
it tolls for thee."
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์ข…์€ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ๋‹น์‹ ์„ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ์šธ๋ฆฐ๋‹ค. "
18:10
For John Donne, a recommendation of morality.
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์กด ๋˜์—๊ฒŒ๋Š” ์œค๋ฆฌ์˜ ๊ถŒ๊ณ ์ฃ .
18:13
For us, I think,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ๋Š”
18:15
part of the equation for our survival.
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์ƒ์กด ๋ฐฉ์ •์‹์˜ ์ผ๋ถ€๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:18
Thank you very much.
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๋Œ€๋‹จํžˆ ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:20
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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