Rachel Pike: The science behind a climate headline

Translator: andry ravololonjatovo Reviewer: Andriankoto Ratozamanana

Ny tiako ho resahina androany dia ny lanjan'

I'd like to talk to you today about the scale of the scientific effort

ireo ezaka ataon'ny mpikaroka nahatongavana

that goes into making the headlines you see in the paper.

amin'ireo lohatenin-dahatsoratra hitanareo amin'ny gazety.

Headlines that look like this when they have to do with climate change;

Toy izato ireo lohateny rehefa ny fiovan'ny toetrandro no resahina,

ary toy izatsy kosa rehefa momba ny hatsaran'ny rivotra iainana na momba ny "smog" (zavona arahin-tsetroka).

and like this when they have to do with air quality or smog.

They're two branches of the same field of atmospheric science.

Samy sampana avy amin'ny taranja siansan'ny atmôsfera izy roa ireo.

Recently, the headlines looked like this

Vao vetivety izay no nahitana lohateny toy izao

when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC,

raha nanao tatitra momba ny fahazoana ny firafitra sy fiasan'ny atmosfera

ny IPCC, vondrona mpikaroka iraisam-pirenena manaraka ny fiovan'ny toetrandro.

put out their report

on the state of understanding of the atmospheric system.

Mpahay siansa 620

That report was written by 620 scientists from 40 countries.

avy amin'ny firenena 40 no nanoratra ity tatitra ity.

They wrote almost 1,000 pages on the topic,

Mahatratra arivo pejy eo ho eo ity tatitra ity.

and all of those pages were reviewed

Ary mpanitsy sy mpahay siansa maherin'ny 400,

by another 400-plus scientists and reviewers

avy amin'ny firenena 113 no nanitsy an'ireo takelaka ireo.

from 113 countries.

It's a big community;

Fivondronambe izany. Lehibe tokoa, hany ka

such a big community, in fact,

that our annual gathering is the largest scientific meeting in the world.

rehefa misy ny fivoriana fanaonay isan-taona, dia io no fivondronan'ny mpahay siansa lehibe indrindra eto an-tany.

Over 15,000 scientists go to San Francisco every year for that.

Mpahay siansa 15.000 mahery no mankany San Francisco isan-taona hamonjy azy io.

Every one of those scientists is in a research group,

Ary ny tsirairay amin'ireo mpahay siansa ireo dia ao anatin'ny vondrom-pikaroka,

ary ny vondrom-pikaroka tsirairay avy dia mikaroka lohahevitra samihafa.

and every research group studies a wide variety of topics.

Ho anay ao Cambridge, dia toy ny fiovaovan'ny El Niño izany lohahevitra izany,

For us at Cambridge, it's as varied as the El Niño Oscillation,

mahakasika ny toetrandro,

which affects weather and climate,

to the assimilation of satellite data,

ny famotopotorana ireo vokatra azo avy amin'ny zana-bolana,

to emissions from crops that produce biofuels, which is what I study.

hatramin'ireo entona avy amin'ny fambolena izao azo anaovana solika voajanahary, izay efa nanaovako fikarohana.

And in each one of these research areas, of which there are even more,

Ary ao amin'ireo seha-pikarohana tsirairay avy ireo,

dia misy ireo mpianatra ho PhD (dokotera), toa ahy,

there are PhD students, like me, and we study incredibly narrow topics,

izay mandinika lohahevitra farak'izay bitika,

things as narrow as a few processes or a few molecules.

bitika toy ny sela vitsivitsy.

Ary isan'ireo sela anaovako fikarohana ny "isoprène",

And one of the molecules I study is called isoprene, which is here.

izay hitantsika eto. sela organika kely izy ity. Mety mbola tsy henonareo akory ny momba azy.

It's a small organic molecule.

You've probably never heard of it.

The weight of a paper clip is approximately equal

Ny lanjan'ny "trombone" iray dia mitovy lanja amin'ny

sela "isoprène" 900 zeta-illion--faha-10hatramin'ny faha-21 eo ho eo.

to 900 zeta-illion -- 10 to the 21st -- molecules of isoprene.

But despite its very small weight,

Saingy na maivan-danja ary izy io,

enough of it is emitted into the atmosphere every year

dia betsaka ihany ny votsotra mankany amin'ny atmosfera

isan-taona ka mitovy amin'ny lanjan'ny olona rehetra eto an-tany.

to equal the weight of all the people on the planet.

Betsaka ihany izany. Mitovy lanja lanja amin'ny "méthane".

It's a huge amount of stuff. It's equal to the weight of methane.

Ary noho izy betsaka izay, dia tena misy vokany tokoa amin'ny firafitry ny atmosfera.

And because it's so much stuff,

it's really important for the atmospheric system.

Noho izy misy vokany eo amin'ny atmosfera izay,

Because it's important to the atmospheric system,

no nandihanay manokana ity zavatra ity.

we go to all lengths to study this thing.

Nozahana akaiky izy io ary nojerena ireo singa rehetra ao aminy.

We blow it up and look at the pieces.

Ito ny EUPHORE Smog Chamber any Espana.

This is the EUPHORE Smog Chamber in Spain.

Ny fipoahan'ny atmosfera, na ny firehetana feno,

Atmospheric explosions, or full combustion,

dia mitaky fotoana lava 15.000 heny noho ny mitranga ao amin'ny fiaranareo.

takes about 15,000 times longer than what happens in your car.

Na izany aza, mizaha ireo singa izahay.

But still, we look at the pieces.

We run enormous models on supercomputers; this is what I happen to do.

Mampiasa solosaina goavana izahay

hijerena ny fiasan'ny modely goavana ihany koa.

Our models have hundreds of thousands of grid boxes

Ny modely ampiasanay dia misy "mailles de grilles" aman'hetsiny

calculating hundreds of variables each, on minute timescales.

izay natao hikajikajiana "variables" aman-jatony, isa-minitra.

It takes weeks to perform our integrations,

Herinandro maro vao vita ny fampidirana ny vokatra.

and we perform dozens of integrations in order to understand what's happening.

ary fampirana vokatra am-polony

no atao vao azo tsara ny zava-mitranga.

We also fly all over the world looking for this thing.

Manao sidina ihany koa izahay eran'izao tontolo izao, mitady azy io ihany.

I recently joined a field campaign in Malaysia -- there are others.

Vao vetivety aho izay no nirotsaka an-tsehatra tany Malaysie. Ary misy hafa ihany koa.

We found a global atmospheric watchtower there

Nahita tilikambo fiambenana ahafahana mizaha ny atmosfera eran-tany izahay tany,

in the middle of the rainforest,

tany afovoan'ny ala mando tany, ary fitaovana ara-tsiansa manokana mitentina an-jatony dôlara any ho any

and hung hundreds of thousands of dollars' worth of scientific equipment

no nahantona tamin'io tilikambo be io

hitadiavana ny "isoprène",

off this tower,

to look for isoprene and other things while we were there.

ary, mazava ho azy, hitadiavana zavatra hafa ihany koa, rehefa teo ihany.

Ito ilay tilikambo be raha jerena avy ambony.

This is the tower in the middle of the rainforest from above,

Ary ito kosa raha avy ambany.

and the tower from below.

Ary nampiasa fiaramanidina mihitsy ary izahay nadritry ny ampahany tamin'io firotsahana an-tsehatra io.

On part of that field campaign we even brought an aircraft with us.

Fiaramanidina, BA146, izay FAAM no nanamory azy,

And this plane, the model BAe-146, which was run by FAAM,

ary mahazaka olona 120 hatramin'ny 130.

normally flies 120 to 130 people,

so maybe you took a similar aircraft to get here today.

Mety fiaramanidina toy io ihany koa no ho raisinareo raha mankany ianareo ankehitriny.

But we didn't just fly it.

Saingy tsy hoe nitaingina fotsiny izahay, fa nanidina 100 metatra ambonin'ny tendron'ny hazo tao an'ala

We were flying at 100 meters above the top of the canopy

handrefesana io môlekiola io--mampidi-doza ihany ilay izy.

to measure this molecule -- incredibly dangerous stuff.

We have to fly at a special incline to make the measurements;

Misy fitongilanana tsy maintsy notazomina mba ahafahana manao ny fandrefesana.

we hire military and test pilots to do the maneuvering;

Mpanamory miaramila sy "pilotes d'essai" no niara-niasa taminay.

Tsy maintsy tandremana ihany koa ny elanelana aroloza.

we need special flight clearance.

Rehefa manodidina ireo lohasaha izahay dia mahatratra 2G ny hery misintona.

As you come around the banks in these valleys,

the forces can get up to two Gs;

Ary tsy maintsy nampiasa "harnais de sécurité" ireo mpikaroka

the scientists must be completely harnessed in

ahafahany manao ny fandrefesana avy ao amin'ilay fiaramanidina.

in order to make measurements while on board.

Azonareo an-tsaina angamba,

So as you can imagine,

fa tsy mitovy amin'ny firamanidina fitsangatsanganana mahazatra ny ao anatin'ilay fiaramanidina nampiasanay.

the inside of the aircraft doesn't look like one you'd take on vacation.

toy ny labôratoara manidina mihitsy no nampiasaina ahafahana mandrefy an'ilay môlekiola any amin'ny faritra misy azy.

It's a flying laboratory we took to make measurements of this molecule.

We do all this to understand the chemistry of one molecule.

Izany rehetra izany no natao mba ahazoana tsara ny fiasan'io môlekiola io.

And when one student like me has some sort of inclination

Ary rehefa misy mpianatra mpikaroka iray, toa ahy,

mahita sombim-pahalalàna momba io môlekiola io,

or understanding about that molecule,

dia mamoaka lahatsotra siantifika momba izany.

they write one scientific paper on the subject.

Ary tamin'io firotsahana an-tsehatra io,

And out of that field campaign we'll probably get a few dozen papers

dia lahatsotra siantifika am-polony eo ho eo, mahakasika ny endrika fiasa am-polony momba io môlekiola io no azo.

on a few dozen processes or molecules.

Ary rehefa mitambatra ireo fahalalàna ireo,

As a body of knowledge builds up, it will form one subsection,

dia manome zana-pizaràna iray, na zana-pizaràna iray ao amin'ny

or one sub-subsection,

of an assessment like the IPCC, although we have others.

fanombanana toy ny IPCC, na dia misy hafa koa aza.

And each one of the 11 chapters of the IPCC has six to ten subsections.

Ary ny tsirairay amin'ireo toko 11 ao amin'ny IPCC

dia mizara zana-pizaràna 6.

So you can imagine the scale of the effort.

Hitanareo amin'izany ny haben'ny ezaka sy asa ao ambadika.

In each one of the assessments we write, we always tag on a summary,

Ao amin'ny tsirairay amin'ireo fanombanana soratanay,

dia asianay marika foana ny famintinana,

and the summary is written for a non-scientific audience.

ary natokana ho an'ny mpamaky tsotra io famintinana io.

And we hand that summary to journalists and policy makers

Ary atolotray mpanao gazety sy mpamoron-dalàna io famintinana io,

in order to make headlines like these.

ahafahana mamoaka lohatenin-dahatsoratra toa itony.

Misaotra betsaka.

Thank you very much.

(Applause)

(Tehaka Mirefodreafotra)