Rachel Pike: The science behind a climate headline

15,794 views ・ 2009-11-13

TED


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Translator: andry ravololonjatovo Reviewer: Andriankoto Ratozamanana
Ny tiako ho resahina androany dia ny lanjan'
00:16
I'd like to talk to you today about the scale of the scientific effort
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ireo ezaka ataon'ny mpikaroka nahatongavana
00:19
that goes into making the headlines you see in the paper.
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amin'ireo lohatenin-dahatsoratra hitanareo amin'ny gazety.
00:22
Headlines that look like this when they have to do with climate change;
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Toy izato ireo lohateny rehefa ny fiovan'ny toetrandro no resahina,
ary toy izatsy kosa rehefa momba ny hatsaran'ny rivotra iainana na momba ny "smog" (zavona arahin-tsetroka).
00:25
and like this when they have to do with air quality or smog.
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00:28
They're two branches of the same field of atmospheric science.
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Samy sampana avy amin'ny taranja siansan'ny atmôsfera izy roa ireo.
00:31
Recently, the headlines looked like this
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Vao vetivety izay no nahitana lohateny toy izao
00:33
when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC,
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raha nanao tatitra momba ny fahazoana ny firafitra sy fiasan'ny atmosfera
ny IPCC, vondrona mpikaroka iraisam-pirenena manaraka ny fiovan'ny toetrandro.
00:36
put out their report
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00:37
on the state of understanding of the atmospheric system.
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Mpahay siansa 620
00:40
That report was written by 620 scientists from 40 countries.
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avy amin'ny firenena 40 no nanoratra ity tatitra ity.
00:43
They wrote almost 1,000 pages on the topic,
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Mahatratra arivo pejy eo ho eo ity tatitra ity.
00:45
and all of those pages were reviewed
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Ary mpanitsy sy mpahay siansa maherin'ny 400,
00:47
by another 400-plus scientists and reviewers
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avy amin'ny firenena 113 no nanitsy an'ireo takelaka ireo.
00:49
from 113 countries.
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00:51
It's a big community;
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Fivondronambe izany. Lehibe tokoa, hany ka
00:52
such a big community, in fact,
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00:54
that our annual gathering is the largest scientific meeting in the world.
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rehefa misy ny fivoriana fanaonay isan-taona, dia io no fivondronan'ny mpahay siansa lehibe indrindra eto an-tany.
00:57
Over 15,000 scientists go to San Francisco every year for that.
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Mpahay siansa 15.000 mahery no mankany San Francisco isan-taona hamonjy azy io.
01:00
Every one of those scientists is in a research group,
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Ary ny tsirairay amin'ireo mpahay siansa ireo dia ao anatin'ny vondrom-pikaroka,
ary ny vondrom-pikaroka tsirairay avy dia mikaroka lohahevitra samihafa.
01:03
and every research group studies a wide variety of topics.
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Ho anay ao Cambridge, dia toy ny fiovaovan'ny El Niño izany lohahevitra izany,
01:06
For us at Cambridge, it's as varied as the El Niño Oscillation,
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mahakasika ny toetrandro,
01:09
which affects weather and climate,
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01:10
to the assimilation of satellite data,
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ny famotopotorana ireo vokatra azo avy amin'ny zana-bolana,
01:12
to emissions from crops that produce biofuels, which is what I study.
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hatramin'ireo entona avy amin'ny fambolena izao azo anaovana solika voajanahary, izay efa nanaovako fikarohana.
01:15
And in each one of these research areas, of which there are even more,
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Ary ao amin'ireo seha-pikarohana tsirairay avy ireo,
dia misy ireo mpianatra ho PhD (dokotera), toa ahy,
01:19
there are PhD students, like me, and we study incredibly narrow topics,
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izay mandinika lohahevitra farak'izay bitika,
01:22
things as narrow as a few processes or a few molecules.
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bitika toy ny sela vitsivitsy.
Ary isan'ireo sela anaovako fikarohana ny "isoprène",
01:25
And one of the molecules I study is called isoprene, which is here.
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izay hitantsika eto. sela organika kely izy ity. Mety mbola tsy henonareo akory ny momba azy.
01:28
It's a small organic molecule.
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01:30
You've probably never heard of it.
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01:31
The weight of a paper clip is approximately equal
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Ny lanjan'ny "trombone" iray dia mitovy lanja amin'ny
sela "isoprène" 900 zeta-illion--faha-10hatramin'ny faha-21 eo ho eo.
01:34
to 900 zeta-illion -- 10 to the 21st -- molecules of isoprene.
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01:37
But despite its very small weight,
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Saingy na maivan-danja ary izy io,
01:39
enough of it is emitted into the atmosphere every year
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dia betsaka ihany ny votsotra mankany amin'ny atmosfera
isan-taona ka mitovy amin'ny lanjan'ny olona rehetra eto an-tany.
01:42
to equal the weight of all the people on the planet.
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Betsaka ihany izany. Mitovy lanja lanja amin'ny "méthane".
01:45
It's a huge amount of stuff. It's equal to the weight of methane.
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Ary noho izy betsaka izay, dia tena misy vokany tokoa amin'ny firafitry ny atmosfera.
01:48
And because it's so much stuff,
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01:49
it's really important for the atmospheric system.
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Noho izy misy vokany eo amin'ny atmosfera izay,
01:51
Because it's important to the atmospheric system,
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no nandihanay manokana ity zavatra ity.
01:54
we go to all lengths to study this thing.
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Nozahana akaiky izy io ary nojerena ireo singa rehetra ao aminy.
01:56
We blow it up and look at the pieces.
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Ito ny EUPHORE Smog Chamber any Espana.
01:58
This is the EUPHORE Smog Chamber in Spain.
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Ny fipoahan'ny atmosfera, na ny firehetana feno,
02:00
Atmospheric explosions, or full combustion,
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dia mitaky fotoana lava 15.000 heny noho ny mitranga ao amin'ny fiaranareo.
02:02
takes about 15,000 times longer than what happens in your car.
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Na izany aza, mizaha ireo singa izahay.
02:05
But still, we look at the pieces.
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02:06
We run enormous models on supercomputers; this is what I happen to do.
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Mampiasa solosaina goavana izahay
hijerena ny fiasan'ny modely goavana ihany koa.
02:10
Our models have hundreds of thousands of grid boxes
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Ny modely ampiasanay dia misy "mailles de grilles" aman'hetsiny
02:12
calculating hundreds of variables each, on minute timescales.
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izay natao hikajikajiana "variables" aman-jatony, isa-minitra.
02:15
It takes weeks to perform our integrations,
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Herinandro maro vao vita ny fampidirana ny vokatra.
02:17
and we perform dozens of integrations in order to understand what's happening.
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ary fampirana vokatra am-polony
no atao vao azo tsara ny zava-mitranga.
02:21
We also fly all over the world looking for this thing.
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Manao sidina ihany koa izahay eran'izao tontolo izao, mitady azy io ihany.
02:24
I recently joined a field campaign in Malaysia -- there are others.
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Vao vetivety aho izay no nirotsaka an-tsehatra tany Malaysie. Ary misy hafa ihany koa.
02:27
We found a global atmospheric watchtower there
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Nahita tilikambo fiambenana ahafahana mizaha ny atmosfera eran-tany izahay tany,
02:29
in the middle of the rainforest,
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tany afovoan'ny ala mando tany, ary fitaovana ara-tsiansa manokana mitentina an-jatony dôlara any ho any
02:31
and hung hundreds of thousands of dollars' worth of scientific equipment
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no nahantona tamin'io tilikambo be io
hitadiavana ny "isoprène",
02:34
off this tower,
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02:35
to look for isoprene and other things while we were there.
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ary, mazava ho azy, hitadiavana zavatra hafa ihany koa, rehefa teo ihany.
Ito ilay tilikambo be raha jerena avy ambony.
02:38
This is the tower in the middle of the rainforest from above,
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Ary ito kosa raha avy ambany.
02:41
and the tower from below.
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Ary nampiasa fiaramanidina mihitsy ary izahay nadritry ny ampahany tamin'io firotsahana an-tsehatra io.
02:42
On part of that field campaign we even brought an aircraft with us.
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Fiaramanidina, BA146, izay FAAM no nanamory azy,
02:45
And this plane, the model BAe-146, which was run by FAAM,
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ary mahazaka olona 120 hatramin'ny 130.
02:48
normally flies 120 to 130 people,
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02:50
so maybe you took a similar aircraft to get here today.
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Mety fiaramanidina toy io ihany koa no ho raisinareo raha mankany ianareo ankehitriny.
02:53
But we didn't just fly it.
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Saingy tsy hoe nitaingina fotsiny izahay, fa nanidina 100 metatra ambonin'ny tendron'ny hazo tao an'ala
02:54
We were flying at 100 meters above the top of the canopy
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handrefesana io môlekiola io--mampidi-doza ihany ilay izy.
02:57
to measure this molecule -- incredibly dangerous stuff.
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02:59
We have to fly at a special incline to make the measurements;
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Misy fitongilanana tsy maintsy notazomina mba ahafahana manao ny fandrefesana.
03:02
we hire military and test pilots to do the maneuvering;
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Mpanamory miaramila sy "pilotes d'essai" no niara-niasa taminay.
Tsy maintsy tandremana ihany koa ny elanelana aroloza.
03:05
we need special flight clearance.
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Rehefa manodidina ireo lohasaha izahay dia mahatratra 2G ny hery misintona.
03:07
As you come around the banks in these valleys,
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03:09
the forces can get up to two Gs;
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Ary tsy maintsy nampiasa "harnais de sécurité" ireo mpikaroka
03:10
the scientists must be completely harnessed in
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ahafahany manao ny fandrefesana avy ao amin'ilay fiaramanidina.
03:13
in order to make measurements while on board.
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Azonareo an-tsaina angamba,
03:15
So as you can imagine,
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fa tsy mitovy amin'ny firamanidina fitsangatsanganana mahazatra ny ao anatin'ilay fiaramanidina nampiasanay.
03:16
the inside of the aircraft doesn't look like one you'd take on vacation.
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toy ny labôratoara manidina mihitsy no nampiasaina ahafahana mandrefy an'ilay môlekiola any amin'ny faritra misy azy.
03:19
It's a flying laboratory we took to make measurements of this molecule.
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03:23
We do all this to understand the chemistry of one molecule.
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Izany rehetra izany no natao mba ahazoana tsara ny fiasan'io môlekiola io.
03:26
And when one student like me has some sort of inclination
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Ary rehefa misy mpianatra mpikaroka iray, toa ahy,
mahita sombim-pahalalàna momba io môlekiola io,
03:29
or understanding about that molecule,
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dia mamoaka lahatsotra siantifika momba izany.
03:31
they write one scientific paper on the subject.
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Ary tamin'io firotsahana an-tsehatra io,
03:33
And out of that field campaign we'll probably get a few dozen papers
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dia lahatsotra siantifika am-polony eo ho eo, mahakasika ny endrika fiasa am-polony momba io môlekiola io no azo.
03:36
on a few dozen processes or molecules.
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Ary rehefa mitambatra ireo fahalalàna ireo,
03:38
As a body of knowledge builds up, it will form one subsection,
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dia manome zana-pizaràna iray, na zana-pizaràna iray ao amin'ny
03:41
or one sub-subsection,
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03:42
of an assessment like the IPCC, although we have others.
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fanombanana toy ny IPCC, na dia misy hafa koa aza.
03:45
And each one of the 11 chapters of the IPCC has six to ten subsections.
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Ary ny tsirairay amin'ireo toko 11 ao amin'ny IPCC
dia mizara zana-pizaràna 6.
03:50
So you can imagine the scale of the effort.
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Hitanareo amin'izany ny haben'ny ezaka sy asa ao ambadika.
03:52
In each one of the assessments we write, we always tag on a summary,
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Ao amin'ny tsirairay amin'ireo fanombanana soratanay,
dia asianay marika foana ny famintinana,
03:56
and the summary is written for a non-scientific audience.
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ary natokana ho an'ny mpamaky tsotra io famintinana io.
03:59
And we hand that summary to journalists and policy makers
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Ary atolotray mpanao gazety sy mpamoron-dalàna io famintinana io,
04:01
in order to make headlines like these.
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ahafahana mamoaka lohatenin-dahatsoratra toa itony.
Misaotra betsaka.
04:04
Thank you very much.
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04:05
(Applause)
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(Tehaka Mirefodreafotra)
Momba ity tranokala ity

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