Rachel Pike: The science behind a climate headline

Prevoditelj: Romana Perković Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG

Danas bih željela govoriti vam o skali

I'd like to talk to you today about the scale of the scientific effort

znanstvenog truda posvećenom stvaranju

that goes into making the headlines you see in the paper.

naslova koje vidite u novinama.

Headlines that look like this when they have to do with climate change;

Naslovi o promjeni klime,

koji izgledaju kao ovaj i naslovi o kvaliteti zraka i smogu, kao ovaj ovdje.

and like this when they have to do with air quality or smog.

They're two branches of the same field of atmospheric science.

To su dvije branše istog polja - znanosti o atmosferi.

Recently, the headlines looked like this

Nedavno su naslovi izgledali ovako kada je Internacionalni

when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC,

odbor za ispitivanje promjene klime, ili "IPCC",

izbacio izvješće o stanju atmosferskog sustava.

put out their report

on the state of understanding of the atmospheric system.

Izvješće je napisalo 620 znanstvenika

That report was written by 620 scientists from 40 countries.

iz 40 zemalja.

They wrote almost 1,000 pages on the topic,

Na tu temu napisali su skoro 1000 stranica.

and all of those pages were reviewed

A sve te stranice je pregledalo još preko 400

by another 400-plus scientists and reviewers

znanstvenika iz 113 zemalja.

from 113 countries.

It's a big community;

To je, zapravo, ogromna zajednica,

such a big community, in fact,

that our annual gathering is the largest scientific meeting in the world.

naše godišnje okupljanje je najveće znanstveno okupljanje na svijetu.

Over 15,000 scientists go to San Francisco every year for that.

Preko 15.000 znanstvenika ide u San Francisco svake godine zbog toga.

Every one of those scientists is in a research group,

Svaki od tih znanstvenika je dio istraživačke grupe,

a svaka istraživačka grupa ispituje raznovrsne teme.

and every research group studies a wide variety of topics.

Za nas na Cambridgeu teme variraju kao i oscilacije El Ninoa,

For us at Cambridge, it's as varied as the El Niño Oscillation,

koji utječe na vremensku prognozu i klimu,

which affects weather and climate,

to the assimilation of satellite data,

do asimilacija satelitskih podataka,

to emissions from crops that produce biofuels, which is what I study.

do ispušnih plinova iz proizvodnje bio-goriva, koji su ono što ja ispitujem.

And in each one of these research areas, of which there are even more,

U svakom od ovih istraživačkih područja kojih je dosta,

ima doktoranata, kao što sam ja,

there are PhD students, like me, and we study incredibly narrow topics,

i mi proučavamo nevjerojatno uske teme,

things as narrow as a few processes or a few molecules.

toliko uske stvari da se nekad svode na nekoliko procesa ili nekoliko molekula.

Jedna od molekula koje ja ispitujem zove se isopren,

And one of the molecules I study is called isoprene, which is here.

evo ga ovdje. To je mala organska molekula. Vjerojatno nikada niste čuli za nju.

It's a small organic molecule.

You've probably never heard of it.

The weight of a paper clip is approximately equal

Težina spajalice je vjerojatno jednaka

900 zeta-ilijuna - 10 na 21 - molekula isoprena.

to 900 zeta-illion -- 10 to the 21st -- molecules of isoprene.

But despite its very small weight,

Ali unatoč njegovoj tako maloj težini,

enough of it is emitted into the atmosphere every year

dovoljno je emitiran u atmosferu

svake godine, toliko da je ta količina jednaka težini svih ljudi na planeti.

to equal the weight of all the people on the planet.

To je ogromna količina. Jednaka je težini metana.

It's a huge amount of stuff. It's equal to the weight of methane.

I pošto ga ima toliko, veoma je važan za atmosferski sustav.

And because it's so much stuff,

it's really important for the atmospheric system.

A pošto je važan za atmosferski sustav,

Because it's important to the atmospheric system,

mi se zaista trudimo to ispitati.

we go to all lengths to study this thing.

Uvećamo ga i gledamo u dijelove.

We blow it up and look at the pieces.

Ovo je "EUPHORE" komora za smog u Španjolskoj.

This is the EUPHORE Smog Chamber in Spain.

Atmosferske eksplozije, potpuno sagorijevanje,

Atmospheric explosions, or full combustion,

kome je potrebno 15.000 puta duže nego onome što se događa u vašem automobilu.

takes about 15,000 times longer than what happens in your car.

Ali ipak, mi gledamo te dijelove.

But still, we look at the pieces.

We run enormous models on supercomputers; this is what I happen to do.

Koristimo ogromne modele na superračunalima;

to je upravo ono što ja radim.

Our models have hundreds of thousands of grid boxes

Naši modeli imaju stotine tisuća mrežnih kutija

calculating hundreds of variables each, on minute timescales.

koje računaju tisuće varijabli odjednom, na minutnim vremenskim skalama.

It takes weeks to perform our integrations,

Potrebni su tjedni kako bismo izveli naše integracije.

and we perform dozens of integrations in order to understand what's happening.

Izvodimo na desetke integracija

kako bismo razumjeli što se događa.

We also fly all over the world looking for this thing.

Također letimo preko cijelog svijeta u potrazi za ovim elementom.

I recently joined a field campaign in Malaysia -- there are others.

Nedavno sam se pridružila kampanji u Maleziji u kojoj je još ljudi.

We found a global atmospheric watchtower there

Tamo smo usred tropske šume zasnovali toranj

in the middle of the rainforest,

za kontrolu globalne atmosfere, na koji smo okačili opremu vrijednu stotine tisuća

and hung hundreds of thousands of dollars' worth of scientific equipment

dolara.

Sa tom opremom tražimo isopren i

off this tower,

to look for isoprene and other things while we were there.

usput naravno, ostale stvari.

Ovo je toranj viđen odozgo usred tropske šume.

This is the tower in the middle of the rainforest from above,

A ovo je isti toranj viđen odozdo.

and the tower from below.

Na taj smo dio kampanje sa nama donijeli i avion

On part of that field campaign we even brought an aircraft with us.

modela BA146, kojeg posjeduje britanska organizacija za mjerenje atmosfere.

And this plane, the model BAe-146, which was run by FAAM,

Njegov uobičajeni kapacitet je između 120 i 130 ljudi.

normally flies 120 to 130 people,

so maybe you took a similar aircraft to get here today.

Možda ste i vi ovdje došli sličnim zrakoplovom.

But we didn't just fly it.

Ali mi nismo samo letjeli, već smo letjeli 100 metara iznad krošnji drveća

We were flying at 100 meters above the top of the canopy

kako bismo izmjerili tu molekulu - jako opasna stvar.

to measure this molecule -- incredibly dangerous stuff.

We have to fly at a special incline to make the measurements;

Zbog toga smo morali letjeti pod posebnim nagibom.

we hire military and test pilots to do the maneuvering;

Unajmljujemo vojsku i test pilote da bi manevrirali avionom.

Moramo dobiti i posebnu dozvolu za takav let.

we need special flight clearance.

I kada dođete do riječnih obala i dolina, ubrzanje može dostići i 2 G.

As you come around the banks in these valleys,

the forces can get up to two Gs;

Znanstvenici moraju biti potpuno vezani tijekom leta

the scientists must be completely harnessed in

kako bi izvršili mjerenja.

in order to make measurements while on board.

Kao što možete zamisliti,

So as you can imagine,

unutrašnjost aviona ne izgleda kao običan avion kojim idete na odmor.

the inside of the aircraft doesn't look like one you'd take on vacation.

To je leteći laboratorij kojim mjerimo ovu molekulu u ovom području.

It's a flying laboratory we took to make measurements of this molecule.

We do all this to understand the chemistry of one molecule.

Sve ovo radimo kako bismo razumjeli kemiju jedne molekule.

And when one student like me has some sort of inclination

A kada student kao ja ima neku sklonost

ili razumijevanje o toj molekuli,

or understanding about that molecule,

on o tome piše znanstvene radove.

they write one scientific paper on the subject.

Iz ove terenske kampanje vjerojatno ćemo dobiti

And out of that field campaign we'll probably get a few dozen papers

nekoliko desetina radova o nekoliko desetina procesa ove molekule.

on a few dozen processes or molecules.

I kako se korpus znanja povećava,

As a body of knowledge builds up, it will form one subsection,

stvaraju se sekcije i podsekcije

or one sub-subsection,

of an assessment like the IPCC, although we have others.

u okviru izvješća poput onog koji izdaje Međunarodni odbor za ispitivanje promjene klime, mada on nije jedini.

And each one of the 11 chapters of the IPCC has six to ten subsections.

Svaki od njihovih 11 poglavlja

ima od 6 do 10 podsekcija.

So you can imagine the scale of the effort.

Dakle, možete zamisliti veličinu ovog napora.

In each one of the assessments we write, we always tag on a summary,

Za svako izvješće koje napišemo,

sastavimo i njegov kratak pregled

and the summary is written for a non-scientific audience.

koji napišemo na jeziku za široku publiku.

And we hand that summary to journalists and policy makers

Taj sažetak dajemo novinarima i urednicima

in order to make headlines like these.

kako bismo dobili naslove poput ovih.

Hvala vam puno.

Thank you very much.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)