3 questions to ask yourself before you believe something - Siska De Baerdemaeker

382,939 views ・ 2023-07-25

TED-Ed


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翻译人员: Yip Yan Yeung 校对人员: Jacky He
00:07
In the late 1700s, a German doctor named Samuel Hahnemann began publishing
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18 世纪末期,一位名为 塞缪尔·哈尼曼(Samuel Hahnemann)的
00:12
articles about a new treatment approach he called homeopathy.
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德国医生发表了一些关于 他称之为“顺势疗法”的文章。
00:17
Hahnemann’s theory had two central hypotheses.
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哈尼曼的理论有两个核心假设。
00:21
First, the treatment for an ailment should be a dose of something
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第一,治疗某种疾病的药物 应包含致病的物质。
00:24
that might cause that ailment.
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00:27
And second, diluted medicines are more powerful than concentrated ones.
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第二,稀释后的药物 比浓缩药物更有效。
00:33
So, a homeopathic remedy for insomnia
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所以,治疗失眠的顺势疗法
00:36
might include an extremely diluted solution of caffeine.
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可以是高度稀释的咖啡因溶剂。
00:41
Over the following 300 years,
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在接下来的 300 年里,
00:43
numerous physicians and patients turned to homeopathy,
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许多医师和患者采用了顺势疗法,
00:47
and entire hospitals were built to focus on homeopathic treatments.
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还有专为顺势疗法创办的医院。
00:51
But despite all this, many studies have shown that homeopathy
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虽然如此,很多研究表明顺势疗法
00:55
has no therapeutic effect,
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没有任何实际疗效,
00:57
and homeopathic treatments often perform no better than placebos.
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顺势疗法通常不见得 比安慰剂更有效。
01:02
So why do so many practitioners and institutions
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那为什么还有这么多医师和机构
01:06
still support this practice?
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坚持采取这种疗法呢?
01:09
The answer is that homeopathy is a pseudoscience—
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答案就是顺势疗法是伪科学——
01:12
a collection of theories, methods, and assumptions
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一大堆看似符合科学的 理论、方法、假设,
01:15
that appear scientific, but aren’t.
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但并无依据。
01:18
In the worst cases, pseudoscience practitioners encourage this confusion
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最坏情况是奉行伪科学的人 把它作为获利的手段。
01:22
to exploit people.
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01:24
But even when they’re well-intentioned,
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即便本身出于好意,
01:26
pseudoscience still prevents people from getting the help they need.
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相信伪科学妨碍人们 接受正确的治疗。
01:30
So how are you supposed to tell what’s science and what’s pseudoscience?
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你该如何分辨什么是 科学或伪科学呢?
01:35
This question is known as the demarcation problem,
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这个难题被称为“划界问题”,
01:38
and there's no easy answer.
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并无明确的答案。
01:40
Part of the issue is that defining science is surprisingly tricky.
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一部分原因是 定义科学非常麻烦。
01:44
There's a common idea that all science should, in some form or another,
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人们通常认为所有的科学 都应该在某个方面
01:48
be related to testing against empirical evidence.
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涉及与客观事实的校验。
01:52
But some scientific activities are primarily theoretical,
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但有些科学活动是理论性质的,
01:55
and different disciplines approach empiricism
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每个学科关于经验主义
01:58
with varying goals, methodologies, and standards.
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也存在着不同目标、方式和标准。
02:03
20th century philosopher Karl Popper tried to solve the demarcation problem
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20 世纪的哲学家卡尔·波普尔 (Karl Popper)试图以一个简单的原则
02:08
with a simple rule.
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解决划界问题。
02:09
He argued that in order for a theory to be scientific
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他认为,一个理论若要符合科学,
02:13
it must be falsifiable, or able to be proven wrong.
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必须是“可证伪的”, 即可以被证明是错误的。
02:17
This requires a theory to make specific predictions—
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这就要求该理论做出具体的预测——
02:21
for example, if you’re theorizing that the Earth revolves around the Sun,
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例如,你提出了 地球绕太阳运行的理论,
02:25
you should be able to predict the path of other celestial bodies in the night sky.
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那你便能预测夜空中的 其他星体的运行轨迹。
02:30
This could then be disproven based on whether or not
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然后这个预测就可以 依靠观测数据
02:33
your prediction corresponds to your observations.
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来辨别真伪。
02:37
Popper’s falsification criterion is a great way
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波普尔的证伪标准是鉴别
02:40
to identify pseudoscientific fields like astrology,
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伪科学领域的好方法,如占星学,
02:44
which makes overly broad predictions that adapt to any observation.
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这些领域会做出过于宽泛的预测, 适用于任何观察结果。
02:48
However, falsification alone doesn't completely solve the demarcation issue.
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但是单凭证伪是无法 彻底解决划界问题的。
02:54
Many things we now consider science were once untestable
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我们现在公认的科学道理 过去无法验证,
02:58
due to a lack of knowledge or technology.
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由于知识或技术的缺乏。
03:02
Fortunately, there are other factors we can use to identify pseudoscience,
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所幸我们还能通过其他因素 鉴别伪科学,
03:06
including how a field responds to criticism.
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包括这个领域是否接受批评。
03:10
Scientists should always be open to the possibility
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科学家应该开放地接受
03:13
that new observations could change what they previously thought,
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新的观察会改变他们 先前认知的可能,
03:17
and thoroughly disproven theories should be rejected in favor of new explanations.
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而彻底被推翻的理论 应该由新的假设所取代。
03:23
Conversely, pseudoscientific theories are often continually modified
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对应地,伪科学理论会被持续修订,
03:28
to explain away any contradictory results.
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以去除任何逻辑问题。
03:32
This kind of behavior shows a resistance
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这种行为展现出对哲学家
03:34
to what philosopher Helen Longino calls transformative criticism.
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海伦·朗吉诺 (Helen Longino) 所称”变革性批评“的抗拒。
03:40
Pseudoscientific fields don't seek to address their internal biases
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伪科学领域并不试图纠正 其内部的认知偏差,
03:44
or meaningfully engage in transparent peer review.
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或实质性地参与透明的同行评审。
03:49
Another key marker of science is overall consistency.
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科学的另一关键特征 是大体的一致性。
03:53
Science relies on a network of shared information
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科学依赖着共享信息网络,
03:56
that ongoing research develops across disciplines.
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涵盖各类学科, 由当前进行的研究维护。
04:00
But pseudoscience often ignores or denies this shared pool of data.
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但伪科学总会无视 或不承认公共的数据库。
04:05
For example, creationists claim that animals didn’t evolve
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比如,神创论者 主张动物并不是
由一个共同的祖先进化而来的,
04:08
from a common ancestor,
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04:10
and that Earth is less than 20,000 years old.
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而且地球存在不足两万年。
04:13
But these claims contradict huge amounts of evidence
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但是这些主张与大量
04:16
across multiple scientific disciplines,
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来自多个科学领域的证据不符,
04:18
including geology, paleontology, and biology.
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包括地质学、古生物学与生物学。
04:22
While the scientific method is our most reliable tool
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虽然科学方法是我们
04:25
to analyze empirical evidence from the world around us,
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分析周围世界产生的客观证据 最为可靠的工具,
04:28
it certainly doesn't reveal everything about the human condition.
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但是它显然并不能揭示 关于人类境况的一切。
04:32
Faith-based beliefs can play an important role in our lives and cultural traditions.
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基于信仰的看法会在我们的生活 和文化传统中起到重要的作用。
04:36
But the reason it’s so important to draw a line
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但划定界限的重要意义在于
04:39
is that people often dress up belief systems as science
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人们总是会将信仰体系 粉饰成科学,
04:44
in efforts to manipulate others
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借此操纵他人
04:46
or undermine legitimate scientific discoveries.
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或诋毁正当的科学发现。
04:49
And even in cases where this might seem harmless,
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即使有些时候这看似并无大碍,
04:52
legitimizing pseudoscience can impede genuine scientific progress.
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让伪科学正当化 会阻碍真正的科学发展。
04:57
In a world where it's increasingly difficult to tell fact from fiction,
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在这个越来越真伪难辨的世界里,
05:01
it's essential to keep your critical thinking skills sharp.
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维持你的批判性思维能力至关重要。
05:06
So the next time you hear an amazing new claim,
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当你下次听到新奇的发现时,
05:09
ask yourself:
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想一想:
05:10
could we test this?
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我们能够验证它吗?
05:11
Are the individuals behind this theory updating their claims with new findings?
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这套理论的提出者 是否用新的研究补充它?
05:16
Is this consistent with our broader scientific understanding of the world?
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这与我们对世界综合的 科学认识相符与否?
05:20
Because looking scientific and actually being scientific
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因为看起来科学 和实际上科学
05:24
are two very different things.
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完全是两码事。
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