Guy-Philippe Goldstein: How cyberattacks threaten real-world peace

Translator: Elisabeth Buffard Reviewer: Veronica Martinez Starnes

翻译人员: Xiaoqiao Xie 校对人员: Lili Liang

Good afternoon.

下午好

If you have followed

如果你关注

diplomatic news in the past weeks,

前几个星期的国际新闻，

you may have heard of a kind of crisis

你可能已经听说了

between China and the U.S.

中美之间的紧张关系

regarding cyberattacks

与网络攻击有关

against the American company Google.

受攻击的是美国的谷歌公司

Many things have been said about this.

众说纷纭

Some people have called a cyberwar

有人说这是网络战争

what may actually be

其实很可能只是

just a spy operation --

一个间谍活动

and obviously, a quite mishandled one.

而且很明显是一个失败的活动

However, this episode reveals

总之，这个事件说明了

the growing anxiety in the Western world

对于这些层出不穷的网络武器

regarding these emerging cyber weapons.

西方社会的担忧有增无减

It so happens that these weapons are dangerous.

这些武器很危险

They're of a new nature:

它们有个新的共性

they could lead the world

就是带给世界

into a digital conflict

数码冲突

that could turn into an armed struggle.

甚至能演变成真的武力冲突

These virtual weapons can also destroy the physical world.

这些虚拟的武器也能够摧毁真实的世界

In 1982, in the middle of the Cold War

一九八二年在冷战的中期

in Soviet Siberia,

西伯利亚

a pipeline exploded with a burst of 3 kilotons,

一条天然气管道爆炸，三千吨的爆炸量

the equivalent of a fourth of the Hiroshima bomb.

相当于四分之一广岛核弹的威力

Now we know today -- this was revealed

汤玛斯.瑞德是美国总统里根任期的美国空军部长

by Thomas Reed,

通过他的报道

Ronald Reagan's former U.S. Air Force Secretary --

我们得知

this explosion was actually the result

这次爆炸其实是

of a CIA sabotage operation,

美国中央情报局一次蓄意行动的结果

in which they had managed

他们想办法

to infiltrate the IT management systems

侵入了天然气管道的

of that pipeline.

计算机管理系统

More recently, the U.S. government revealed

最近，美国政府披露了

that in September 2008, more than 3 million people

在二零零八年九月，多过三百万人口

in the state of Espirito Santo in Brazil

在巴西圣埃斯皮里图州

were plunged into darkness,

经历的大规模停电

victims of a blackmail operation from cyber pirates.

也是网络黑客的杰作

Even more worrying for the Americans,

更令美国担忧的是

in December 2008 the holiest of holies,

二零零八年十二月

the IT systems of CENTCOM,

中央司令部的核心的电脑系统

the central command

负责对阿富汗和伊拉克战争

managing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan,

进行中央控制的系统

may have been infiltrated by hackers

也被黑客侵入了

who used these:

他们使用的是

plain but infected USB keys.

看似空白但是已被感染的USB设备

And with these keys, they may have been able

通过这些USB设备，他们能

to get inside CENTCOM's systems,

进入中央控制系统里

to see and hear everything,

得到所有信息

and maybe even infect some of them.

甚至能够改变一些信息

As a result, the Americans take the threat very seriously.

结果是，美国对这些威胁反应很大

I'll quote General James Cartwright,

按照詹姆斯.卡特瑞特将军的说法

Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,

他是参谋长联会的副主席

who says in a report to Congress

他在对国会的报告中说

that cyberattacks could be as powerful as

网络攻击具有

weapons of mass destruction.

和强大的武器一样的摧毁力量

Moreover, the Americans have decided

更进一步，美国政府决定

to spend over 30 billion dollars

在未来五年内

in the next five years

花三十亿美元

to build up their cyberwar capabilities.

来加强它们的网络力量

And across the world today, we see

放眼今天的世界

a sort of cyber arms race,

我们能看到关于网络武力的竞争

with cyberwar units

一些网络战争，

built up by countries like North Korea

从一些国家比如朝鲜

or even Iran.

或者伊朗

Yet, what you'll never hear

同时，从美国国防部

from spokespeople

或者法国国防部发言人的口中

from the Pentagon or the French Department of Defence

你绝对不会听到

is that the question isn't really

这个问题并非关于

who's the enemy, but actually

谁是敌人

the very nature of cyber weapons.

而是关于网络战争的特性

And to understand why, we must look at how,

要理解这一点，我们必须看看

through the ages, military technologies

这些年来，军事技术

have maintained or destroyed

是怎么维持，或者摧毁

world peace.

世界和平的

For example,

打个比方

if we'd had TEDxParis

假如我们在三百五十年前

350 years ago,

开这个TED巴黎会

we would have talked about the military innovation of the day --

我们可能会谈大规模沃邦式防御堡垒

the massive Vauban-style fortifications --

这样的军事创新

and we could have predicted

我们由此预测

a period of stability in the world or in Europe.

世界或欧洲会有一段和平时期

which was indeed the case in Europe

那段时期的情况也确实如此

between 1650 and 1750.

在1650年和1750年之间 欧洲确有一段和平时期

Similarly, if we'd had this talk

同样，如果我们

30 or 40 years ago, we would have seen

在三十或者四十年前，我们会看到

how the rise of nuclear weapons,

核武器的发展

and the threat of mutually assured destruction they imply,

和他们带来的相互威胁

prevents a direct fight between the two superpowers.

事实上防止了两个军事强国间的直接的战争

However, if we'd had this talk 60 years ago,

但是如果我们在六十年前谈这个

we would have seen how the emergence

我们会看到

of new aircraft and tank technologies,

新式飞机和坦克的技术

which give the advantage to the attacker,

这些技术给了进攻一方

make the Blitzkrieg doctrine very credible

很大的优势来进行闪电式攻击

and thus create the possibility of war in Europe.

从而给了欧洲大战的机会

So military technologies

所以军事技术

can influence the course of the world,

能够影响世界的秩序

can make or break world peace --

能够维持或者破坏世界的和平

and there lies the issue with cyber weapons.

网络武器也有这些问题

The first issue:

第一个问题是

Imagine a potential enemy announcing

想象如果一个可能的敌人宣布

they're building a cyberwar unit,

他们在制造一个网络战争的设备

but only for their country's defense.

但是仅仅用来防御

Okay, but what distinguishes it

但是这个设备又和

from an offensive unit?

进攻性的武器有什么区别呢？

It gets even more complicated

问题变得更加复杂

when the doctrines of use become ambiguous.

当我们没有一个对使用方法的规定

Just 3 years ago, both the U.S. and France

三年前，美国和法国

were saying they were investing militarily in cyberspace,

同时说它们在投资网络军事

strictly to defend their IT systems.

但是仅仅是为了防御

But today both countries say

但是今天，两个国家都说

the best defense is to attack.

最好的防御就是先攻击

And so, they're joining China,

就这样他们就像是中国

whose doctrine of use for 15 years has been

中国在过去的十五年来

both defensive and offensive.

用网络同时防御和进攻

The second issue:

第二个问题是

Your country could be under cyberattack

你的国家可能会被进攻

with entire regions plunged into total darkness,

从而整个区域断电

and you may not even know

你都不会知道

who's attacking you.

谁攻击了你

Cyber weapons have this peculiar feature:

网络武器有个特征

they can be used

使用网络武器

without leaving traces.

可以不留痕迹

This gives a tremendous advantage to the attacker,

这就给了进攻的人很大的优势

because the defender

因为防御者

doesn't know who to fight back against.

不知道怎么反攻

And if the defender retaliates against the wrong adversary,

如果防御者选错了反击对象

they risk making one more enemy

他们便面临再加一个敌人的危险

and ending up diplomatically isolated.

可能会被外交隔离起来

This issue isn't just theoretical.

这是个很现实的问题

In May 2007, Estonia was the victim of cyberattacks,

在二零零七年五月，爱沙尼亚受网络攻击

that damaged its communication

通信和银行系统

and banking systems.

受到了影响

Estonia accused Russia.

他们怀疑俄国

But NATO, though it defends Estonia,

但是北大西洋公约组织，虽然在维护爱沙尼亚

reacted very prudently. Why?

他们的反应还是很保守。为什么呢？

Because NATO couldn't be 100% sure

因为北大西洋公约组织也不能百分之百的确定

that the Kremlin was indeed behind these attacks.

到底是不是俄罗斯在背后搞鬼。

So to sum up, on the one hand,

总而言之，一方面

when a possible enemy announces

当可能的敌人宣布

they're building a cyberwar unit,

他们在建一个网络战争的设备时

you don't know whether it's for attack

你不知道这是为了进攻

or defense.

还是防御

On the other hand,

另一方面

we know that these weapons give an advantage to attacking.

我们知道这种武器是对进攻一方有利的

In a major article published in 1978,

在一九七八年发表的一篇论文中

Professor Robert Jervis of Columbia University in New York

纽约哥伦比亚大学的罗伯特 哲维斯教授

described a model to understand

描述了一个模型

how conflicts could arise.

来帮助理解就网络战争而言

In this context,

冲突是怎么产生的

when you don't know if the potential enemy

当你不知道敌人是在

is preparing for defense or attack,

准备防御还是进攻时

and if the weapons give an advantage to attacking,

如果这个武器是有利于进攻的

then this environment is

这个气氛就是

most likely to spark a conflict.

要起冲突了

This is the environment that's being created

这个环境是

by cyber weapons today,

今天网络武器创造的

and historically it was the environment in Europe

历史上这就是欧洲的环境

at the onset of World War I.

在一次大战开始的时候

So cyber weapons

所以网络武器

are dangerous by nature,

本质上是危险的

but in addition, they're emerging

但是另一方面，它们也

in a much more unstable environment.

是在一个很不稳定的环境下产生的

If you remember the Cold War,

如果你记得冷战时期

it was a very hard game,

那是个非常困难的游戏

but a stable one played only by two players,

但是是个稳定的游戏，仅仅是两方在对峙

which allowed for some coordination between the two superpowers.

这样两方之间就有一些调剂

Today we're moving to a multipolar world

今天我们来到了一个群雄逐鹿的世界

in which coordination is much more complicated,

想调剂变得很复杂

as we have seen at Copenhagen.

就像我们在哥本哈根所见

And this coordination may become even trickier

调剂会变得更加复杂

with the introduction of cyber weapons.

当我们有了网路武器

Why? Because no nation

为什么？因为没有一个国家

knows for sure whether its neighbor

能确定地知道它的邻居

is about to attack.

是不是将要进攻了

So nations may live under the threat

所以所有国家都活在危机中

of what Nobel Prize winner Thomas Schelling

正如诺贝尔奖得主汤玛斯.斯考林所说

called the "reciprocal fear of surprise attack,"

对突袭的相互恐惧

as I don't know if my neighbor

就像是我不知道我的邻居

is about to attack me or not --

会不会攻击我

I may never know --

我可能永远也不知道

so I might take the upper hand

所以我就先下手为强

and attack first.

抢先进攻

Just last week,

就在上一周

in a New York Times article dated January 26, 2010,

纽约时报在2010年1月26号

it was revealed for the first time that

独家报道了

officials at the National Security Agency

国家安全局的高层

were considering the possibility of preemptive attacks

考虑了抢先进攻的可能

in cases where the U.S. was about

以防万一美国

to be cyberattacked.

遭到攻击

And these preemptive attacks

这些抢先进攻

might not just remain

可能不仅仅局限在

in cyberspace.

在网络世界里

In May 2009, General Kevin Chilton,

在2009年5月，凯文.切尔顿将军

commander of the U.S. nuclear forces,

美国核武力的指挥官

stated that in the event of cyberattacks against the U.S.,

宣布如果美国受网络攻击

all options would be on the table.

美国可能会采取任何应对行动

Cyber weapons do not replace

网络攻击不能取代

conventional or nuclear weapons --

传统武器或者是核武器

they just add a new layer to the existing system of terror.

它们在已有的危险上另加了一层

But in doing so, they also add their own risk

但是就这样，它们同时也加了一层危险

of triggering a conflict --

可能会激发冲突

as we've just seen, a very important risk --

我们已经看到过了，非常大的危险

and a risk we may have to confront

我们可能得要

with a collective security solution

用集体的安全网

which includes all of us:

来对付这个危险

European allies, NATO members,

包括欧洲盟友，北大西洋公约组织的成员

our American friends and allies,

我们的美国朋友和盟友

our other Western allies,

其他的西方盟友

and maybe, by forcing their hand a little,

甚至，可能要加点压力

our Russian and Chinese partners.

给我们的俄国和中国伙伴

The information technologies

那些乔.德.如斯纳所说的

Joël de Rosnay was talking about,

信息技术

which were historically born from military research,

历史上从军事研究中发展出来的

are today on the verge of developing

今天开始有了

an offensive capability of destruction,

摧毁的力量

which could tomorrow, if we're not careful,

未来，我们一不小心

completely destroy world peace.

就可能会毁灭整个世界

Thank you.

谢谢大家

(Applause)

（掌声）