Guy-Philippe Goldstein: How cyberattacks threaten real-world peace

41,050 views ・ 2011-10-19

TED


μ•„λž˜ μ˜λ¬Έμžλ§‰μ„ λ”λΈ”ν΄λ¦­ν•˜μ‹œλ©΄ μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.

00:00
Translator: Elisabeth Buffard Reviewer: Veronica Martinez Starnes
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λ²ˆμ—­: hyeongjun park κ²€ν† : Miryoung Lee
00:15
Good afternoon.
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μ•ˆλ…•ν•˜μ„Έμš”.
00:16
If you have followed
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μ§€λ‚œ λͺ‡ μ£Ό λ™μ•ˆ
00:18
diplomatic news in the past weeks,
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ꡭ제 λ‰΄μŠ€λ₯Ό μ‚΄νŽ΄λ³΄μ‹  뢄이라면
00:20
you may have heard of a kind of crisis
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쀑ꡭ과 미ꡭ이 미ꡭ계 νšŒμ‚¬μΈ ꡬ글을 두고
00:22
between China and the U.S.
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벌이고 μžˆλŠ”
00:24
regarding cyberattacks
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사이버 μ „μŸμ— λŒ€ν•΄μ„œ
00:26
against the American company Google.
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듀어보셨을 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:28
Many things have been said about this.
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이 사건에 λŒ€ν•΄ μ„€μ™•μ„€λž˜κ°€ λ§Žμ•˜λŠ”λ°μš”,
00:30
Some people have called a cyberwar
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μ–΄λ–€ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ€ 이λ₯Ό 사이버 μ „μŸμ΄λΌ ν–ˆμ§€λ§Œ
00:32
what may actually be
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μ‹€μ œλ‘œλŠ”
00:34
just a spy operation --
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μ–΄μ„€ν”ˆ 슀파이 ν™œλ™μ—
00:36
and obviously, a quite mishandled one.
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λΆˆκ³Όν•œ μΌμ΄μ—ˆμ£ .
00:38
However, this episode reveals
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ 이 사건은 μ„œλ°© 세계가
00:41
the growing anxiety in the Western world
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κ·Όλž˜μ— λ“±μž₯ν•œ 사이버 무기에 λŒ€ν•΄ λŠλΌλŠ” λΆˆμ•ˆκ°μ„
00:43
regarding these emerging cyber weapons.
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λ“œλŸ¬λ‚΄λŠ” 계기가 λ˜μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:46
It so happens that these weapons are dangerous.
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사이버 λ¬΄κΈ°λŠ” μ‹€μ œλ‘œ μœ„ν—˜ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:48
They're of a new nature:
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그리고 기쑴에 λ³Ό 수 μ—†λ˜ μ„±κ²©μ˜ λ¬΄κΈ°μ΄μ§€μš”.
00:50
they could lead the world
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사이버 무기가 μ΄‰λ°œν•œ
00:52
into a digital conflict
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디지털 μΆ©λŒμ€
00:54
that could turn into an armed struggle.
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μ‹€μ œ 무λ ₯ 좩돌둜 μ΄μ–΄μ§ˆ 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:56
These virtual weapons can also destroy the physical world.
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κ°€μƒμ˜ 무기가 물리적인 세상을 νŒŒκ΄΄ν•  μˆ˜λ„ μžˆκ³ μš”.
01:01
In 1982, in the middle of the Cold War
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1982λ…„ 냉전 도쀑
01:04
in Soviet Siberia,
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κ΅¬μ†Œλ ¨ μ‹œλ² λ¦¬μ•„μ˜ μ›μžλ ₯ μ‹œμ„€μ—μ„œ
01:06
a pipeline exploded with a burst of 3 kilotons,
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νžˆλ‘œμ‹œλ§ˆ μ›μžν­νƒ„μ˜ 4배에 λ‹¬ν•˜λŠ”
01:10
the equivalent of a fourth of the Hiroshima bomb.
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3천 ν†€κ°€λŸ‰μ˜ 폭발이 μΌμ–΄λ‚¬μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:12
Now we know today -- this was revealed
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μ˜€λŠ˜λ‚  μš°λ¦¬λŠ”
01:14
by Thomas Reed,
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레이건 μ „ λŒ€ν†΅λ Ή μ‹œμ ˆ λ―Έκ΅­ 곡ꡰ참λͺ¨μž₯μ΄μ—ˆλ˜
01:16
Ronald Reagan's former U.S. Air Force Secretary --
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ν† λ§ˆμŠ€ λ¦¬λ“œκ°€ 밝힌 바와 같이
01:18
this explosion was actually the result
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이 사건이 λ―Έκ΅­ CIA 파괴 κ³΅μž‘μ˜ μΌν™˜μ΄λΌλŠ” κ±Έ
01:21
of a CIA sabotage operation,
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μ•Œκ³  μžˆλŠ”λ°μš”,
01:23
in which they had managed
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이 λ‹Ήμ‹œ CIAλŠ” κ΅¬μ†Œλ ¨ μ›μžλ ₯ μ‹œμ„€μ˜
01:25
to infiltrate the IT management systems
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IT μ œμ–΄ μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ— μΉ¨νˆ¬ν•΄μ„œ
01:27
of that pipeline.
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ν­λ°œμ„ μΌμœΌν‚¨ κ²ƒμ΄μ—ˆμ£ .
01:29
More recently, the U.S. government revealed
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λ˜ν•œ 2008λ…„ 9μ›” 브라질 μ—μŠ€ν”Όλ¦¬ν†  μ‚°ν†  μ£Όμ—μ„œ
01:32
that in September 2008, more than 3 million people
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3백만 λͺ… μ΄μƒμ˜ μ‹œλ―Όμ„ 암흑에 빠뜨린 μ •μ „ 사건도
01:35
in the state of Espirito Santo in Brazil
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사이버 ν…ŒλŸ¬λ¦¬μŠ€νŠΈμ˜ κ³΅μž‘μ΄μ—ˆλ‹€λŠ” 사싀을
01:38
were plunged into darkness,
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졜근 λ―Έκ΅­ μ •λΆ€μ—μ„œ
01:40
victims of a blackmail operation from cyber pirates.
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밝힌 λ°” μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:45
Even more worrying for the Americans,
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λ―Έκ΅­μΈμ—κ²Œ 더 큰 걱정을 μ•ˆκ²¨μ£Όμ—ˆλ˜ 사건은
01:47
in December 2008 the holiest of holies,
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2008λ…„ 12μ›”, 성역이라고 ν•  수 μžˆλŠ”
01:50
the IT systems of CENTCOM,
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λ―Έκ΅° 쀑뢀사령뢀(CENTCOM)의 IT μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ„
01:52
the central command
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해컀듀이 μΉ¨νˆ¬ν–ˆλ˜ μΌμ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:54
managing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan,
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이 μ‚¬λ ΉλΆ€λŠ” 이라크와 μ•„ν”„κ°€λ‹ˆμŠ€νƒ„ μ „μŸμ„
01:57
may have been infiltrated by hackers
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κ΄€μž₯ν•˜λŠ” 곳인데
01:59
who used these:
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해컀듀이 μ‚¬μš©ν•œ 건 λ°”μ΄λŸ¬μŠ€μ— κ°μ—Όλœ
02:02
plain but infected USB keys.
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λ‹¨μˆœν•œ USB λ³΄μ•ˆμ—΄μ‡ μ˜€μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:04
And with these keys, they may have been able
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그듀은 κ·Έ μ—΄μ‡ λ‘œ CENTCOM μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ— μΉ¨μž…ν•΄
02:06
to get inside CENTCOM's systems,
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λͺ¨λ“  것을 보고 듀은 ν›„
02:08
to see and hear everything,
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μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ„ λ°”μ΄λŸ¬μŠ€μ— κ°μ—Όμ‹œν‚¬ 수 μžˆμ—ˆλ‹€κ³ 
02:10
and maybe even infect some of them.
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μΆ”μ •λ˜λŠ”λ°μš”, κ·Έ κ²°κ³Ό 미ꡭ은
02:12
As a result, the Americans take the threat very seriously.
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사이버 곡격의 심각성을 κΉ¨λ‹«κ²Œ λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:14
I'll quote General James Cartwright,
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λ―Έκ΅­ 합동참λͺ¨λ³ΈλΆ€μ˜ λΆ€μ˜μž₯인
02:16
Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
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μ œμž„μŠ€ 카트라이트 μž₯ꡰ은
02:18
who says in a report to Congress
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μ˜νšŒμ— μ œμΆœν•œ λ³΄κ³ μ„œμ—
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that cyberattacks could be as powerful as
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사이버 곡격이 λŒ€λŸ‰μ‚΄μƒλ¬΄κΈ°λ§ŒνΌ
02:23
weapons of mass destruction.
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κ°•λ ₯ν•΄μ§ˆ 수 μžˆλ‹€κ³  λ§ν•˜κΈ°λ„ ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:26
Moreover, the Americans have decided
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λ˜ν•œ, 이 사건 이후 미ꡭ은
02:28
to spend over 30 billion dollars
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μ•žμœΌλ‘œ 5λ…„ κ°„ 사이버 μ „μŸμ— λŒ€λΉ„ν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•΄
02:30
in the next five years
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3λ°±μ–΅ λ‹¬λŸ¬λ₯Ό
02:31
to build up their cyberwar capabilities.
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νˆ¬μžν•˜κΈ°λ‘œ κ²°μ •ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:34
And across the world today, we see
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그리고 이제 μš°λ¦¬λŠ”
02:36
a sort of cyber arms race,
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μΌμ’…μ˜ 사이버 무μž₯ 경쟁이
02:39
with cyberwar units
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μ„Έκ³„μ μœΌλ‘œ λ²ˆμ§€λŠ” λͺ¨μŠ΅μ„ 보고 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:41
built up by countries like North Korea
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λΆν•œμ΄λ‚˜ μ΄λž€κΉŒμ§€λ„ 이 κ²½μŸμ—
02:43
or even Iran.
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λ›°μ–΄λ“€μ—ˆμ£ .
02:44
Yet, what you'll never hear
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ λ―Έκ΅­ κ΅­λ°©μ„±μ΄λ‚˜
02:46
from spokespeople
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ν”„λž‘μŠ€ κ΅­λ°©λΆ€ λŒ€λ³€μΈμ€
02:48
from the Pentagon or the French Department of Defence
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문제의 핡심이
02:51
is that the question isn't really
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λˆ„κ°€ 적이냐에 μžˆλŠ” 게 μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ
02:53
who's the enemy, but actually
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사이버 무기의 성격 μžμ²΄μ— μžˆλ‹€λŠ” 사싀은
02:55
the very nature of cyber weapons.
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μ ˆλŒ€ μ–ΈκΈ‰ν•˜μ§€ μ•Šμ„ κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:58
And to understand why, we must look at how,
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κ·Έ 이유λ₯Ό μ΄ν•΄ν•˜λ €λ©΄
03:00
through the ages, military technologies
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μ§€κΈˆκ» 세계 평화λ₯Ό μœ μ§€ν•˜κ±°λ‚˜ νŒŒκ΄΄ν•˜λŠ”λ°
03:03
have maintained or destroyed
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κ΅°μ‚¬κΈ°μˆ μ΄ μ–΄λ–€ 역할을 ν•΄μ™”λŠ”μ§€
03:05
world peace.
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μ‚΄νŽ΄λ³Ό ν•„μš”κ°€ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:08
For example,
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예λ₯Ό λ“€μ–΄
03:10
if we'd had TEDxParis
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λ§Œμ•½ TEDxParisκ°€
03:11
350 years ago,
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350λ…„ 전에 μ—΄λ Έλ‹€λ©΄
03:13
we would have talked about the military innovation of the day --
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μ•„λ§ˆ λ‹Ήμ‹œ κ°€μž₯ ν˜μ‹ μ μΈ κΈ°μˆ μ΄μ—ˆλ˜
03:16
the massive Vauban-style fortifications --
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보방(Vauban)식 κ±°λŒ€ μš”μƒˆμ— λŒ€ν•œ μ–˜κΈ°λ‘œ μ‹œμž‘ν•΄μ„œ
03:19
and we could have predicted
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이후 μœ λŸ½μ΄λ‚˜ 세계에 λ„λž˜ν•  μ•ˆμ •κΈ°λ₯Ό
03:21
a period of stability in the world or in Europe.
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μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν–ˆμ„ κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:24
which was indeed the case in Europe
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1650λ…„λΆ€ν„° 1750λ…„κΉŒμ§€μ˜ μœ λŸ½μ€
03:27
between 1650 and 1750.
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μ‹€μ œλ‘œλ„ μ•ˆμ •κΈ°λ₯Ό λˆ„λ Έμ—ˆμ£ .
03:29
Similarly, if we'd had this talk
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이와 λΉ„μŠ·ν•œ 예둜 λ§Œμ•½ 이 강연을
03:32
30 or 40 years ago, we would have seen
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30~40λ…„ 전에 ν–ˆλ‹€λ©΄
03:35
how the rise of nuclear weapons,
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핡무기가 λΆ€μƒν•˜λ©΄μ„œ 'μƒν˜Έν™•μ¦νŒŒκ΄΄(MAD)'의 μœ„ν˜‘μ΄
03:37
and the threat of mutually assured destruction they imply,
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λ―Έκ΅­κ³Ό μ†Œλ ¨, 두 μ΄ˆκ°•λŒ€κ΅­ μ‚¬μ΄μ˜ 정면전을
03:41
prevents a direct fight between the two superpowers.
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μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ 막고 μžˆλŠ”μ§€ λ³Ό 수 μžˆμ—ˆμ„ κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:45
However, if we'd had this talk 60 years ago,
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ λ§Œμ•½ 이 강연을 60λ…„ 전에 ν–ˆλ‹€λ©΄
03:47
we would have seen how the emergence
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μƒˆλ‘œ λ“±μž₯ν•œ μ „νˆ¬κΈ°μ™€ 탱크 기술 덕뢄에
03:50
of new aircraft and tank technologies,
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기슡 정책을 νƒν•œ 곡격 μ§„μ˜μ΄
03:53
which give the advantage to the attacker,
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μœ λ¦¬ν•œ 고지λ₯Ό μ ν•˜λŠ” 상황이 λ˜μ—ˆκΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ—
03:56
make the Blitzkrieg doctrine very credible
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유럽 λ‚΄ μ „μŸ 발발 κ°€λŠ₯성이
03:59
and thus create the possibility of war in Europe.
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높아지고 μžˆλŠ” 점에 λŒ€ν•΄ λ…Όμ˜ν–ˆκ² μ£ .
04:02
So military technologies
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이렇듯 κ΅°μ‚¬κΈ°μˆ μ€
04:04
can influence the course of the world,
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세계 정세에 큰 영ν–₯을 λ―ΈμΉ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:06
can make or break world peace --
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평화λ₯Ό 지킬 μˆ˜λ„, 깨뜨릴 μˆ˜λ„ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:08
and there lies the issue with cyber weapons.
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그리고 사이버 무기의 μŸμ λ„ 여기에 있죠.
04:10
The first issue:
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첫 번째 λ¬Έμ œλŠ” μ΄λ ‡μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:12
Imagine a potential enemy announcing
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잠재적 적ꡰ이 사이버 무기λ₯Ό κ΅¬μΆ•ν•˜κΈ°λ‘œ
04:15
they're building a cyberwar unit,
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λ°œν‘œν–ˆλ‹€κ³  상상해 λ΄…μ‹œλ‹€.
04:17
but only for their country's defense.
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μ˜€λ‘œμ§€ λ°©μ–΄ λͺ©μ μœΌλ‘œ 말이죠.
04:19
Okay, but what distinguishes it
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ 그게 κ³΅κ²©μš©μΈμ§€ μ•„λ‹Œμ§€
04:22
from an offensive unit?
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μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ κ΅¬λΆ„ν• κΉŒμš”?
04:24
It gets even more complicated
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무기 κ΄€λ ¨ 정책이 λͺ¨ν˜Έν•΄μ§ˆμˆ˜λ‘
04:26
when the doctrines of use become ambiguous.
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이 λ¬Έμ œλŠ” 더 λ³΅μž‘ν•΄μ§‘λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:30
Just 3 years ago, both the U.S. and France
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3λ…„ μ „λ§Œ 해도 λ―Έκ΅­κ³Ό ν”„λž‘μŠ€, 양ꡭ이
04:34
were saying they were investing militarily in cyberspace,
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사이버 곡간에 κ΅°λŒ€λ₯Ό λ§Œλ“œλŠ”λ° 투자λ₯Ό ν•˜κ³  있으며 μ΄λŠ” μ–‘κ΅­μ˜ IT μ‹œμŠ€ν…œ
04:38
strictly to defend their IT systems.
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λ°©μ–΄ λͺ©μ μ— κ΅­ν•œν•œλ‹€κ³  ν–ˆλŠ”λ°μš”,
04:41
But today both countries say
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μ§€κΈˆμ€ μ–‘κ΅­ λͺ¨λ‘
04:44
the best defense is to attack.
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곡격이 μ΅œμ„ μ˜ 방어라고 ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:46
And so, they're joining China,
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그러면 이 두 κ΅­κ°€λŠ”
04:48
whose doctrine of use for 15 years has been
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15λ…„ κ°„ 곡수λ₯Ό κ²ΈλΉ„ν•˜κ² λ‹€κ³  곡언해 온 쀑ꡭ과
04:52
both defensive and offensive.
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같은 노선을 μ·¨ν•œ μ…ˆμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:55
The second issue:
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두 번째 λ¬Έμ œλŠ”
04:57
Your country could be under cyberattack
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ˜ λͺ¨κ΅­μ΄ μ™„μ „νžˆ κΉœκΉœν•œ μƒνƒœμ—μ„œ
05:01
with entire regions plunged into total darkness,
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사이버 곡격을 λ‹Ήν•  μˆ˜λ„ μžˆλ‹€λŠ” κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:04
and you may not even know
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λˆ„κ°€ κ³΅κ²©ν•˜λŠ”μ§€μ‘°μ°¨
05:06
who's attacking you.
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λͺ¨λ₯΄λŠ” 채 λ‹Ήν•  μˆ˜λ„ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:08
Cyber weapons have this peculiar feature:
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사이버 λ¬΄κΈ°λŠ”
05:10
they can be used
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흔적을 남기지 μ•Šκ³  곡격할 수 μžˆλ‹€λŠ”
05:11
without leaving traces.
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λ…νŠΉν•œ νŠΉμ§•μ΄ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:13
This gives a tremendous advantage to the attacker,
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μ΄λŠ” 곡격을 ν•˜λŠ” 츑에 λ§‰λŒ€ν•œ 이득이 λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:15
because the defender
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μ™œλƒν•˜λ©΄ μˆ˜λΉ„ μ§„μ˜μ΄
05:17
doesn't know who to fight back against.
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λˆ„κ΅¬λ₯Ό μƒλŒ€λ‘œ μ‹Έμš°λŠ”μ§€ λͺ¨λ₯Ό 뿐 μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ
05:19
And if the defender retaliates against the wrong adversary,
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μƒλŒ€λ₯Ό 잘λͺ» λ„˜κ²¨ 짚고 보볡을 ν•˜λ©΄
05:21
they risk making one more enemy
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적을 ν•˜λ‚˜ 더 λŠ˜λ €μ„œ μ™Έκ΅μ μœΌλ‘œ 고립된 μƒνƒœμ—μ„œ
05:24
and ending up diplomatically isolated.
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μ „μŸμ„ 마칠 μœ„ν—˜κΉŒμ§€ κ°μˆ˜ν•΄μ•Ό ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:26
This issue isn't just theoretical.
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이런 상상이 ν˜„μ‹€μ΄ 된 적도 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:28
In May 2007, Estonia was the victim of cyberattacks,
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2007λ…„ 5μ›” 사이버 곡격을 λ°›μ•„μ„œ
05:30
that damaged its communication
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톡신망과 은행 μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ΄ 망가진 μ—μŠ€ν† λ‹ˆμ•„λŠ”
05:33
and banking systems.
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λŸ¬μ‹œμ•„λ₯Ό λ²”μΈμœΌλ‘œ
05:35
Estonia accused Russia.
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지λͺ©ν–ˆμ£ .
05:37
But NATO, though it defends Estonia,
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μ—μŠ€ν† λ‹ˆμ•„λ₯Ό λ³΄ν˜Έν•˜λ˜ λ‚˜ν† (NATO)λŠ”
05:39
reacted very prudently. Why?
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μ‹ μ€‘ν•œ νƒœλ„λ‘œ λŸ¬μ‹œμ•„λ₯Ό 지λͺ©ν•œ 이유λ₯Ό λ¬Όμ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:41
Because NATO couldn't be 100% sure
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λ‚˜ν† λŠ” 이 곡격의 배후에 λŸ¬μ‹œμ•„κ°€ μžˆμ—ˆλŠ”μ§€
05:43
that the Kremlin was indeed behind these attacks.
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100% ν™•μ‹ ν•  수 μ—†μ—ˆκΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ΄μ£ .
05:48
So to sum up, on the one hand,
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정리λ₯Ό ν•΄λ³΄μžλ©΄ μš°μ„ 
05:51
when a possible enemy announces
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적이 사이버 무기λ₯Ό κ΅¬μΆ•ν•œλ‹€κ³  κ³΅μ–Έν–ˆμ„ λ•Œ
05:53
they're building a cyberwar unit,
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κ·Έ λͺ©μ μ΄ 곡격인지 μˆ˜λΉ„μΈμ§€
05:55
you don't know whether it's for attack
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ꡬ뢄할 방법이
05:57
or defense.
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μ—†λ‹€λŠ” κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:58
On the other hand,
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λ‹€λ₯Έ ν•œνŽΈμœΌλ‘œλŠ”
05:59
we know that these weapons give an advantage to attacking.
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이 무기가 곡격 μ§„μ˜μ— μœ λ¦¬ν•˜κ²Œ μž‘μš©ν•œλ‹€λŠ” 것을 μ•Œκ²Œ λ˜μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:03
In a major article published in 1978,
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1978λ…„ λ‰΄μš• μ½œλ‘¬λΉ„μ•„ λŒ€ν•™μ˜ λ‘œλ²„νŠΈ μ €λΉ„μŠ€ κ΅μˆ˜λŠ”
06:06
Professor Robert Jervis of Columbia University in New York
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본인의 논문을 톡해
06:08
described a model to understand
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λΆ„μŸ λ°œμƒ 과정을 μ„€λͺ…ν•˜λŠ” λͺ¨λΈμ„
06:10
how conflicts could arise.
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μ œμ‹œν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:12
In this context,
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이 λͺ¨λΈμ— λ”°λ₯΄λ©΄
06:15
when you don't know if the potential enemy
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잠재적 적ꡰ이 곡격과 λ°©μ–΄ 쀑
06:17
is preparing for defense or attack,
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μ–΄λ–€ 것을 μ€€λΉ„ν•˜λŠ”μ§€ λͺ¨λ₯΄λŠ” μƒνƒœμ—μ„œ
06:20
and if the weapons give an advantage to attacking,
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곡격에 이둜운 무기λ₯Ό
06:22
then this environment is
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가지고 μžˆλ‹€λ©΄
06:24
most likely to spark a conflict.
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μΆ©λŒμ„ μΌμœΌν‚¬ κ°€λŠ₯성이 ꡉμž₯히 λ†’λ‹€κ³  ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:28
This is the environment that's being created
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μ˜€λŠ˜λ‚  사이버 무기 λ•Œλ¬Έμ— μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ ν™˜κ²½μ΄
06:30
by cyber weapons today,
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μ‘°μ„±λ˜κ³  μžˆλŠ”λ°μš”,
06:32
and historically it was the environment in Europe
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제1μ°¨ μ„Έκ³„λŒ€μ „μ΄ μΌμ–΄λ‚˜λ˜ λ‹Ήμ‹œμ—λ„
06:35
at the onset of World War I.
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이와 λΉ„μŠ·ν•œ μƒν™©μ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:39
So cyber weapons
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μ΄λ ‡κ²Œ 사이버 λ¬΄κΈ°λŠ”
06:41
are dangerous by nature,
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κ·Έ 성격 μžμ²΄λ§ŒμœΌλ‘œλ„ μœ„ν—˜ν•œλ°
06:43
but in addition, they're emerging
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ν˜„μž¬μ˜ λ“±μž₯ ν™˜κ²½μ€ 과거보닀 훨씬 더
06:46
in a much more unstable environment.
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λΆˆμ•ˆμ •ν•˜κΈ°κΉŒμ§€ ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:48
If you remember the Cold War,
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냉전을 돌이켜보면
06:50
it was a very hard game,
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맀우 μ‹¬κ°ν•œ μ „μŸμ΄κΈ΄ ν–ˆμ„μ§€ λͺ°λΌλ„
06:52
but a stable one played only by two players,
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μ–΄λŠ 정도 쑰정이 κ°€λŠ₯ν•œ μƒν™©μ—μ„œ
06:54
which allowed for some coordination between the two superpowers.
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두 μ΄ˆκ°•λŒ€κ΅­μ΄ 벌인 μ•ˆμ •μ μΈ κ²Œμž„μ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:57
Today we're moving to a multipolar world
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ λ‹€κ·Ήν™”λ˜κ³  μžˆλŠ” μž‘κΈˆμ˜ μ„Έκ³„λŠ”
07:02
in which coordination is much more complicated,
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μ½”νŽΈν•˜κ²μ˜ μ˜ˆμ—μ„œ λ³Ό 수 μžˆλ“―μ΄
07:03
as we have seen at Copenhagen.
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훨씬 더 λ³΅μž‘ν•œ μƒν˜Έκ΄€κ³„λ₯Ό 가지고 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:06
And this coordination may become even trickier
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여기에 사이버 λ¬΄κΈ°κΉŒμ§€ λ„μž…λ˜μ–΄
07:09
with the introduction of cyber weapons.
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쑰정은 λ”μš± κΉŒλ‹€λ‘œμš΄ λ¬Έμ œκ°€ λ˜μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:12
Why? Because no nation
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μ™œλƒν•˜λ©΄ μ–΄λ–€ λ‚˜λΌλ„
07:14
knows for sure whether its neighbor
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μΈμ ‘κ΅­μ—μ„œ 곡격할 μ€€λΉ„λ₯Ό ν•˜κ³  μžˆλŠ”μ§€
07:17
is about to attack.
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μ•Œ 수 μ—†κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:19
So nations may live under the threat
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ ꡭ가듀은 노벨상 μˆ˜μƒμž
07:21
of what Nobel Prize winner Thomas Schelling
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ν† λ¨ΈμŠ€ 셸링이 "μ˜ˆμƒν•  수 μ—†λŠ” 곡격에 λŒ€ν•œ μƒν˜Έ μœ„ν˜‘"이라고 λΆ€λ₯Έ
07:24
called the "reciprocal fear of surprise attack,"
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μœ„ν—˜μ— λ…ΈμΆœλ˜μ–΄ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:26
as I don't know if my neighbor
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ν˜„μž¬ 인접ꡭ이 곡격을 μ€€λΉ„ν•˜κ³  μžˆλŠ”μ§€ λͺ¨λ₯΄κ³ 
07:28
is about to attack me or not --
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μ•žμœΌλ‘œλ„ μ•Œ 수 μ—†λŠ” 상황이라면
07:30
I may never know --
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μ£Όλ„κΆŒμ„ μ₯κΈ° μœ„ν•΄
07:32
so I might take the upper hand
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μžμ‹ μ΄ μ„ μ œκ³΅κ²©μ„
07:34
and attack first.
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ν•œλ‹€λŠ” 것이죠.
07:37
Just last week,
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μ§€λ‚œ μ£Ό
07:39
in a New York Times article dated January 26, 2010,
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2010λ…„ 1μ›” 26일 자 λ‰΄μš•νƒ€μž„μŠ€ μ§€μ—λŠ”
07:43
it was revealed for the first time that
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미ꡭ을 ν–₯ν•œ 사이버 곡격이 μ˜ˆμƒλ˜λŠ” 경우
07:45
officials at the National Security Agency
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미ꡭ은 μ„ μ œ 곡격을 λΆˆμ‚¬ν•  κ°€λŠ₯성도
07:48
were considering the possibility of preemptive attacks
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μžˆλ‹€λŠ” λ‚΄μš©μ„
07:52
in cases where the U.S. was about
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λ―Έκ΅­ κ΅­κ°€μ•ˆμ „λ³΄μž₯λΆ€ μ†Œμ† 곡무원이
07:55
to be cyberattacked.
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처음으둜 밝힌 λ°” μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:58
And these preemptive attacks
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μ„ μ œ 곡격이라 함은
08:00
might not just remain
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사이버 곡격에
08:01
in cyberspace.
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κ·ΈμΉ˜μ§€ μ•Šμ„ μˆ˜λ„ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:05
In May 2009, General Kevin Chilton,
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2009λ…„ 5μ›”, λ―Έκ΅­ 핡무기 λΆ€λŒ€μ˜ 사령관인
08:10
commander of the U.S. nuclear forces,
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μΌ€λΉˆ μΉœν„΄ μž₯ꡰ은
08:13
stated that in the event of cyberattacks against the U.S.,
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미ꡭ에 λŒ€ν•œ 사이버 곡격이 μžˆμ„ λ•Œ
08:18
all options would be on the table.
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μ–΄λ–€ 곡격도 감행할 수 μžˆλ‹€λŠ” λ°œμ–Έμ„ ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:21
Cyber weapons do not replace
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사이버 λ¬΄κΈ°λŠ” μž¬λž˜μ‹ 무기λ₯Ό
08:23
conventional or nuclear weapons --
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λŒ€μ²΄ν•˜λŠ” 게 μ•„λ‹™λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:25
they just add a new layer to the existing system of terror.
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μ’…λž˜μ˜ ν…ŒλŸ¬ 방식에 μƒˆ μ˜·μ„ ν•œ κ²Ή 더 μž…νžŒ 정도이죠.
08:30
But in doing so, they also add their own risk
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λ‹€λ§Œ 여기에 λΆ„μŸ 유발 μœ„ν—˜μ„±κΉŒμ§€
08:33
of triggering a conflict --
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λ‚΄ν¬ν•˜κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:35
as we've just seen, a very important risk --
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μ•žμ„œ μ‚΄νŽ΄λ³Έ κ²ƒμ²˜λŸΌ μ΄λŠ” 맀우 큰 μœ„ν˜‘μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:37
and a risk we may have to confront
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이 λ¬Έμ œμ— λ§žμ„œκΈ° μœ„ν•΄
08:39
with a collective security solution
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유럽 μ—°λ§Ήκ΅­, λ‚˜ν†  동맹ꡭ
08:42
which includes all of us:
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λ―Έκ΅­κ³Ό 그의 동맹ꡭ,
08:44
European allies, NATO members,
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κ·Έ μ™Έ μ„œλ°©μ„Έκ³„μ˜ 동맹ꡭ
08:46
our American friends and allies,
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λͺ¨λ‘κ°€ λœ»μ„ ν•©μ³μ„œ
08:48
our other Western allies,
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합동 λ³΄μ•ˆ λŒ€μ±…μ„ λ§ˆλ ¨ν•΄μ•Ό 할지도 λͺ¨λ¦…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:50
and maybe, by forcing their hand a little,
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μ–΄μ©Œλ©΄ μ•½κ°„ κ°•μ œμ μΈ 방법을 λ™μ›ν•΄μ„œλΌλ„
08:52
our Russian and Chinese partners.
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λŸ¬μ‹œμ•„μ™€ 쀑ꡭ 동맹ꡭ도 ν¬ν•¨μ‹œμΌœμ•Ό 할지도 λͺ¨λ¦…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:55
The information technologies
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μ‘°μ—˜ λ“œ λ‘œμŠ€λ‹ˆκ°€ λ§ν–ˆλ“―μ΄
08:57
JoΓ«l de Rosnay was talking about,
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ꡰ사 λͺ©μ  μ—°κ΅¬μ—μ„œ λ°œμƒν•œ
08:58
which were historically born from military research,
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ITλŠ”
09:01
are today on the verge of developing
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μ˜€λŠ˜λ‚  파괴적인 곡격λ ₯을 가진 기술둜
09:03
an offensive capability of destruction,
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λ°œμ „ν•˜κΈ° μ§μ „μ˜ μƒνƒœλΌ ν•  수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:06
which could tomorrow, if we're not careful,
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ‘°μ‹¬ν•˜μ§€ μ•ŠλŠ”λ‹€λ©΄ 이 κΈ°μˆ μ€ λ‹Ήμž₯ 내일이라도
09:10
completely destroy world peace.
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μ„Έκ³„μ˜ 평화λ₯Ό μ™„μ „νžˆ νŒŒκ΄΄ν•  μˆ˜λ„ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:13
Thank you.
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κ°μ‚¬ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:15
(Applause)
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(λ°•μˆ˜)
이 μ›Ήμ‚¬μ΄νŠΈ 정보

이 μ‚¬μ΄νŠΈλŠ” μ˜μ–΄ ν•™μŠ΅μ— μœ μš©ν•œ YouTube λ™μ˜μƒμ„ μ†Œκ°œν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ „ 세계 졜고의 μ„ μƒλ‹˜λ“€μ΄ κ°€λ₯΄μΉ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μˆ˜μ—…μ„ 보게 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. 각 λ™μ˜μƒ νŽ˜μ΄μ§€μ— ν‘œμ‹œλ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μžλ§‰μ„ 더블 ν΄λ¦­ν•˜λ©΄ κ·Έκ³³μ—μ„œ λ™μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. λΉ„λ””μ˜€ μž¬μƒμ— 맞좰 μžλ§‰μ΄ μŠ€ν¬λ‘€λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ˜κ²¬μ΄λ‚˜ μš”μ²­μ΄ μžˆλŠ” 경우 이 문의 양식을 μ‚¬μš©ν•˜μ—¬ λ¬Έμ˜ν•˜μ‹­μ‹œμ˜€.

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