Jared Diamond: How societies can grow old better

127,672 views ・ 2013-11-25

TED


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翻译人员: Yukun Chen 校对人员: Wei Wu
00:12
To give me an idea of how many of you here
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为了让我知道这里有多少人
00:14
may find what I'm about to tell you
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待会儿会觉得我告诉你的事情
00:17
of practical value,
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有实用价值,
00:18
let me ask you please to raise your hands:
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请符合条件的人把手举起来:
00:21
Who here is either over 65 years old
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这里有谁已经超过65岁
00:24
or hopes to live past age 65
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或者想要活到65岁以后
00:28
or has parents or grandparents who did live
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或者有父母、祖父母的岁数
00:31
or have lived past 65,
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达到或超过65岁,
00:33
raise your hands please. (Laughter)
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请举手。(笑声)
00:36
Okay. You are the people to whom my talk
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好。你们就是会发现我的演讲
00:38
will be of practical value. (Laughter)
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有用的人。(笑声)
00:40
The rest of you
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其他人,
00:42
won't find my talk personally relevant,
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不会觉得我的演讲和你有切身的关系,
00:44
but I think that you will still find the subject
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但我觉得你仍会发现这个主题
00:46
fascinating.
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非常有趣。
00:47
I'm going to talk about growing older
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我要谈一谈在传统的社会里
00:49
in traditional societies.
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慢慢变老是什么样子。
00:51
This subject constitutes just one chapter
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这一主题是我新书的
00:54
of my latest book, which compares
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一章,这本书在比较
00:57
traditional, small, tribal societies
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传统上基于部落的小社会,
01:00
with our large, modern societies,
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与我们现在的庞大社会之间,
01:02
with respect to many topics
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在许多事情上都有很大不同,
01:04
such as bringing up children,
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例如后代的培养,
01:06
growing older, health, dealing with danger,
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老年问题,健康问题、 危机处理,
01:10
settling disputes, religion
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领土和宗教争端等,
01:12
and speaking more than one language.
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现在社会很多人都能说一种以上语言。
01:15
Those tribal societies, which constituted
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这中小部落社会组织形式
01:18
all human societies for most of human history,
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是人类漫长历史上最主要的社会形式,
01:21
are far more diverse than are our modern,
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远比我们现代的,近代的大社会
01:24
recent, big societies.
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更多样化。
01:26
All big societies that have governments,
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所有具有政府的,
01:28
and where most people are strangers to each other,
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且大多数人互不认识的大社会,
01:31
are inevitably similar to each other
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都不可避免地相互类似
01:33
and different from tribal societies.
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并且与部落社会不同。
01:36
Tribes constitute thousands of natural experiments
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部落的形成是大自然实验的结果
01:39
in how to run a human society.
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成千上万次的实验形成了部落的多样性。
01:42
They constitute experiments from which we ourselves
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在大自然的实验中, 部落形成的过程中
01:45
may be able to learn.
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我们可以学到很多。
01:47
Tribal societies shouldn't be scorned
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(我们)不应该认为部落社会
01:49
as primitive and miserable,
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原始而悲惨的,并因此看不起它们
01:51
but also they shouldn't be romanticized
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但也不应该觉得它们是
01:53
as happy and peaceful.
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幸福与和平的,从而把其浪漫化。
01:55
When we learn of tribal practices,
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当我们去了解部落的做法时,
01:58
some of them will horrify us,
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有些做法会吓坏我们,
01:59
but there are other tribal practices which,
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但也有其他部落的做法,
02:02
when we hear about them,
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当我们听说时,
02:03
we may admire and envy
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我们可能会觉得佩服和羡慕
02:05
and wonder whether we could adopt those practices
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并思考,是否我们自己,
02:07
ourselves.
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也可以采取这些做法。
02:10
Most old people in the U.S. end up living
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生活在美国的大多数老人,最终
02:13
separately from their children
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都与子女分开生活
02:15
and from most of their friends
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他们年轻时就认识的朋友们
02:17
of their earlier years,
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也会相互分开,
02:18
and often they live in separate retirements homes for the elderly,
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他们很可能生活在单独为老人设立的养老院里,
02:22
whereas in traditional societies,
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而在传统社会中,
02:24
older people instead live out their lives
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年纪大的人和他们的子女,
02:27
among their children, their other relatives,
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他们的其他亲戚,
02:29
and their lifelong friends.
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以及他们认识了一辈子的朋友生活在一起。
02:32
Nevertheless, the treatment of the elderly
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虽然,老年人的待遇
02:34
varies enormously among traditional societies,
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在不同的传统社会间差别极大,
02:37
from much worse to much better
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有比我们的现代社会糟糕很多的,
02:39
than in our modern societies.
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也有比我们的现代社会好很多的。
02:42
At the worst extreme, many traditional societies
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在最坏的极端,许多传统社会
02:45
get rid of their elderly
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通过以下四种一种比一种残忍的方式
02:47
in one of four increasingly direct ways:
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来处理部落中的老年人:
02:50
by neglecting their elderly
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第一种做法是忽略他们
02:52
and not feeding or cleaning them until they die,
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不给他们吃的, 不打理他们,任其自生自灭,
02:56
or by abandoning them when the group moves,
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第二种做法是在整个群体迁移时,抛弃他们,
02:59
or by encouraging older people to commit suicide,
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第三种做法是迫使老人自杀,
03:02
or by killing older people.
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最后, 最残忍的, 杀死老人。
03:05
In which tribal societies do children
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到底是什么样的部落社会,
03:07
abandon or kill their parents?
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子女会抛弃或杀死他们的父母?
03:10
It happens mainly under two conditions.
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主要在以下两个环境下会发生。
03:13
One is in nomadic, hunter-gather societies
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一个情况是游牧部落,打猎和采摘为食的社会
03:16
that often shift camp
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这些部落常常需要迁移,
03:18
and that are physically incapable
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他们没有能力
03:20
of transporting old people who can't walk
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带着无法自己迁移的老人,
03:23
when the able-bodied younger people already
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四肢健全的年轻人
03:25
have to carry their young children
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要携带年幼的子女
03:27
and all their physical possessions.
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和其所有的物质财产。
03:30
The other condition is in societies
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另一种是生活在极端恶劣
03:32
living in marginal or fluctuating environments,
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或极端不稳定环境中的部落,
03:36
such as the Arctic or deserts,
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比如北极或沙漠,
03:38
where there are periodic food shortages,
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这些地方有周期性的粮食短缺,
03:41
and occasionally there just isn't enough food
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并且时不时的会有饥荒,
03:43
to keep everyone alive.
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粮食无法满足所有人。
03:45
Whatever food is available has to be reserved
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这种情况下, 食物必须
03:47
for able-bodied adults and for children.
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为健全的成年人和儿童保留。
03:52
To us Americans, it sounds horrible
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对我们美国人来说,这听起来非常可怕,
03:55
to think of abandoning or killing
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想想抛弃或杀死
03:57
your own sick wife or husband
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你自己生病的妻子或丈夫
03:59
or elderly mother or father,
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或年迈的母亲或父亲,
04:01
but what could those traditional societies
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但是,那些传统社会还可能
04:05
do differently?
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怎么样呢?
04:07
They face a cruel situation of no choice.
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他们面对别无选择的残酷态势。
04:10
Their old people had to do it to their own parents,
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他们的老人都不得不对自己的父母做这样的事情,
04:13
and the old people know
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并且老人们知道
04:15
what now is going to happen to them.
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现在什么会发生在他们身上。
04:18
At the opposite extreme
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在对待老人的另一个极端
04:20
in treatment of the elderly, the happy extreme,
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这个快乐的极端,
04:22
are the New Guinea farming societies
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是在新几内亚的农耕社会
04:24
where I've been doing my fieldwork for the past 50 years,
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——过去 50 多年来,我在那里做野外调查——
04:27
and most other sedentary traditional societies
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还有大多数其他在世界各地
04:31
around the world.
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定居的传统社会。
04:33
In those societies, older people are cared for.
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在这些社会中,老年人受到照顾。
04:36
They are fed. They remain valuable.
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他们被(子女)赡养。他们仍有价值。
04:38
And they continue to live in the same hut
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而且他们继续住在同一屋檐下,
04:40
or else in a nearby hut near their children,
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或是住在靠近他们子女,或其他亲属和好朋友住处
04:43
relatives and lifelong friends.
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附近的小屋。
04:47
There are two main sets of reasons for this variation
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在不同的社会中,有这样不同的
04:49
among societies in their treatment
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对待老人的态度和方式,
04:52
of old people.
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主要有两组原因。
04:53
The variation depends especially
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这种不同尤其取决于
04:55
on the usefulness of old people
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老人依然能够体现自己的价值
04:57
and on the society's values.
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以及当地社会的价值观。
05:00
First, as regards usefulness,
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第一点是关于老人的价值,
05:02
older people continue to perform useful services.
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老人可继续提供有用的服务。
05:05
One use of older people in traditional societies
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在传统社会中老人的一个用处
05:08
is that they often are still effective
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是他们常常仍可以
05:10
at producing food.
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生产食物。
05:12
Another traditional usefulness of older people
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另一种老年人的传统用处,
05:15
is that they are capable of babysitting
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是他们有能力帮忙照看
05:18
their grandchildren,
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他们的孙辈,
05:20
thereby freeing up their own adult children,
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从而让其成年子女,
05:23
the parents of those grandchildren,
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那些孙子们的父母,
05:24
to go hunting and gathering food for the grandchildren.
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去狩猎和采集食物给孙子们。
05:28
Still another traditional value of older people
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还有另一个老年人的传统价值
05:30
is in making tools, weapons, baskets,
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是在于制作工具、 武器、 篮子、
05:33
pots and textiles.
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锅碗和纺织品。
05:35
In fact, they're usually the people who are best at it.
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事实上,他们通常是擅长的人。
05:38
Older people usually are the leaders
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老人通常是传统社会
05:41
of traditional societies,
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的领导人,
05:43
and the people most knowledgeable about politics,
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也是在政治、医学、 宗教、
05:46
medicine, religion, songs and dances.
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歌曲和舞蹈方面最有知识的人。
05:50
Finally, older people in traditional societies
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最后,在传统社会中的老年人
05:53
have a huge significance that would never occur
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具有一个巨大的,且在我们的现代文明社会中
05:56
to us in our modern, literate societies,
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永远不会想到的重要性,
06:00
where our sources of information are books
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因为我们的信息来源是书
06:03
and the Internet.
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和互联网。
06:04
In contrast, in traditional societies without writing,
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相比之下,在没有文字书写的传统社会,
06:08
older people are the repositories of information.
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老人是信息的存储库。
06:11
It's their knowledge that spells the difference
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他们的知识是其整个社会
06:14
between survival and death for their whole society
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在罕见事件引起的危机时
06:18
in a time of crisis caused by rare events
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存亡的关键
06:21
for which only the oldest people alive
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因为唯一活着的,最年长的老人
06:23
have had experience.
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才会有经验。
06:26
Those, then, are the ways in which older people
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那些就是老人
06:28
are useful in traditional societies.
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在传统社会中有用的地方。
06:31
Their usefulness varies and contributes
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他们的用处会不同,并决定了
06:34
to variation in the society's treatment
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社会对待老人
06:36
of the elderly.
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态度的不同。
06:38
The other set of reasons for variation
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另一组(不同社会)对待老人
06:40
in the treatment of the elderly is
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有差异的原因是
06:42
the society's cultural values.
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社会的文化价值观。
06:45
For example, there's particular emphasis
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例如,对在东亚地区,
06:47
on respect for the elderly in East Asia,
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(其文化)特别强调对老人的尊重,
06:50
associated with Confucius' doctrine
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这与孔子的孝道學說有关
06:53
of filial piety, which means obedience,
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也即是服从,
06:57
respect and support for elderly parents.
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尊重并支持年迈的父母。
07:01
Cultural values that emphasize respect for older people
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强调尊重老年人的文化价值观
07:05
contrast with the low status of the elderly
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与在美国,老人的地位低微
07:08
in the U.S.
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形成了鲜明对比。
07:10
Older Americans are at a big disadvantage
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美国老年人在工作申请中
07:12
in job applications.
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处于很大的劣势。
07:14
They're at a big disadvantage in hospitals.
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他们在医院也处于很大的劣势。
07:17
Our hospitals have an explicit policy
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我们的医院有明确的政策
07:20
called age-based allocation of healthcare resources.
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称为“基于年龄分配医疗资源”。
07:25
That sinister expression means that
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这种政策的表述听起来充满恶意:
07:27
if hospital resources are limited,
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如果医院资源是有限的,
07:30
for example if only one donor heart
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例如,如果只有一个捐助者的心脏
07:32
becomes available for transplant,
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可供移植,
07:34
or if a surgeon has time to operate
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或者,如果一个外科医生
07:36
on only a certain number of patients,
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在一定时间中只能为少数几个患者做手术,
07:38
American hospitals have an explicit policy
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美国的医院有明确的政策,
07:41
of giving preference to younger patients
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(这些资源)要优先给年轻的患者
07:44
over older patients
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而不是老年患者,
07:45
on the grounds that younger patients are considered
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理由是年轻患者被认为
07:48
more valuable to society
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对社会更有价值
07:50
because they have more years of life ahead of them,
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因为他们还有更多年的生活在等待他们,
07:53
even though the younger patients have fewer years
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即使较年轻的患者有较少的
07:56
of valuable life experience behind them.
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宝贵生活经验。
08:00
There are several reasons for this low status
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美国的老人地位如此低
08:02
of the elderly in the U.S.
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有几个原因。
08:04
One is our Protestant work ethic
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一是我们新教的工作伦理
08:07
which places high value on work,
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这个伦理给予“工作”很大的价值,
08:10
so older people who are no longer working
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所以不再能工作的老年人
08:12
aren't respected.
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不被尊重。
08:14
Another reason is our American emphasis
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另一个原因是我们美国人强调
08:17
on the virtues of self-reliance and independence,
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自主和独立的美德
08:20
so we instinctively look down on older people
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所以我们本能地看不起
08:23
who are no longer self-reliant and independent.
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不再自力更生而独立的老年人。
08:27
Still a third reason is our American cult of youth,
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第三个原因是我们美国式的,对年轻的崇拜,
08:31
which shows up even in our advertisements.
192
511351
2808
甚至在我们的广告中就显示了这点。
08:34
Ads for Coca-Cola and beer always depict
193
514159
3264
可口可乐和啤酒的广告总是描绘
08:37
smiling young people,
194
517423
1555
微笑着的年轻人,
08:38
even though old as well as young people
195
518978
1970
即使老人象年轻人一样
08:40
buy and drink Coca-Cola and beer.
196
520948
2322
会去买可口可乐和啤酒。
08:43
Just think, what's the last time you saw
197
523270
2003
想一想,你最后一次看到
08:45
a Coke or beer ad depicting smiling people
198
525273
2677
可乐或者啤酒的广告描绘微笑着的
08:47
85 years old? Never.
199
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2949
85 岁老人是什么时候?从来没有。
08:50
Instead, the only American ads
200
530899
1806
相反,唯一以白发老人
08:52
featuring white-haired old people
201
532705
2006
为主角的美国广告
08:54
are ads for retirement homes and pension planning.
202
534711
3865
是眼泪院和养老计划的广告。
08:58
Well, what has changed in the status
203
538576
2050
今天老人的地位
09:00
of the elderly today
204
540626
1983
与他们在传统社会中的地位
09:02
compared to their status in traditional societies?
205
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3389
相比起来有什么变化?
09:05
There have been a few changes for the better
206
545998
1870
有一些好的变化
09:07
and more changes for the worse.
207
547868
2205
更多的方面变得更糟糕了。
09:10
Big changes for the better
208
550073
1601
好的变化中,大的方面
09:11
include the fact that today we enjoy
209
551674
2151
包括今天我们享受
09:13
much longer lives,
210
553825
1984
更长的生命这一事实,
09:15
much better health in our old age,
211
555809
2294
我们比过去的老年人更健康,
09:18
and much better recreational opportunities.
212
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3638
和有更好地娱乐的机会。
09:21
Another change for the better is that we now have
213
561741
2270
另一个更好的变化是,我们现在有
09:24
specialized retirement facilities
214
564011
2840
专门的退休设施
09:26
and programs to take care of old people.
215
566851
3351
和政策来照顾老人们。
09:30
Changes for the worse begin with the cruel reality
216
570202
2868
更糟的变化开始于
09:33
that we now have
217
573070
1689
我们现在,比以往任何时候
09:34
more old people and fewer young people
218
574759
2574
都有更多的老人和更少的年轻人
09:37
than at any time in the past.
219
577333
2684
这一残酷现实。
09:40
That means that all those old people
220
580017
1751
这意味着,那些老人
09:41
are more of a burden on the few young people,
221
581768
2425
对这些较少的年轻来说是个负担,
09:44
and that each old person has less individual value.
222
584193
4486
并且每个老人的个体价值也就更少。
09:48
Another big change for the worse in the status of the elderly
223
588679
3184
另一个老年人地位恶化的大变化是
09:51
is the breaking of social ties with age,
224
591863
2677
随着年龄的增长,社会纽带的断裂,
09:54
because older people, their children,
225
594540
1844
因为老人,他们的孩子,
09:56
and their friends,
226
596384
1316
和他们的朋友,
09:57
all move and scatter independently of each other
227
597700
2850
在他们的生命过程中多次搬家
10:00
many times during their lives.
228
600550
2254
并彼此独立地四散各处。
10:02
We Americans move on the average
229
602804
1813
我们美国人平均
10:04
every five years.
230
604617
1953
每五年就搬家一次。
10:06
Hence our older people are likely
231
606570
2031
因此我们的老人很有可能
10:08
to end up living distant from their children
232
608601
2307
最终生活在远离他们的孩子
10:10
and the friends of their youth.
233
610908
2803
和他们青年时期朋友的地方。
10:13
Yet another change for the worse in the status of the elderly
234
613711
3162
另一个老年人地位恶化的变化是
10:16
is formal retirement from the workforce,
235
616873
3730
从劳动力中正式退休,
10:20
carrying with it a loss of work friendships
236
620603
2750
同时失去在工作中建立的友谊
10:23
and a loss of the self-esteem associated with work.
237
623353
4140
以及从工作而来的自尊。
10:27
Perhaps the biggest change for the worse
238
627493
2485
或许,最大的(老人地位)恶化的改变是
10:29
is that our elderly are objectively
239
629978
2873
我们的老人都客观地
10:32
less useful than in traditional societies.
240
632851
3162
相比在传统社会中没那么有用了。
10:36
Widespread literacy means that they are no longer
241
636013
2963
文化普及意味着他们不再
10:38
useful as repositories of knowledge.
242
638976
2631
是有用的知识宝库。
10:41
When we want some information,
243
641607
1943
当我们想要某些信息时,
10:43
we look it up in a book or we Google it
244
643550
2261
我们从书里面查,或是上网搜索
10:45
instead of finding some old person to ask.
245
645811
3470
而不是询问老人。
10:49
The slow pace of technological change
246
649281
2087
在传统社会中,
10:51
in traditional societies
247
651368
1822
技术变革的缓慢速度
10:53
means that what someone learns there as a child
248
653190
2850
意味着在孩童时代学习的东西
10:56
is still useful when that person is old,
249
656040
2659
在老年时仍然有用
10:58
but the rapid pace of technological change today
250
658699
3603
而今天技术的快速改变
11:02
means that what we learn as children
251
662302
2067
意味着我们在孩童时代学习的东西
11:04
is no longer useful 60 years later.
252
664369
2890
60 年后已经不再有用。
11:07
And conversely, we older people are not fluent
253
667259
2379
反过来,我们老人对于
11:09
in the technologies essential for surviving
254
669638
3034
现代社会中生存必需的技术
11:12
in modern society.
255
672672
1971
并不擅长。
11:14
For example, as a 15-year-old,
256
674643
2173
例如,做为 一个15 岁的孩子,
11:16
I was considered outstandingly good at multiplying numbers
257
676816
3590
别人觉得我非常擅长乘法
11:20
because I had memorized the multiplication tables
258
680406
3195
因为我记得乘法表,
11:23
and I know how to use logarithms
259
683601
2145
知道如何使用对数,
11:25
and I'm quick at manipulating a slide rule.
260
685746
2863
并且可以快速地操作计算尺。
11:28
Today, though, those skills are utterly useless
261
688609
3086
然而,今天,这些技能基本完全无用
11:31
because any idiot
262
691695
2371
因为任何一个白痴
11:34
can now multiply eight-digit numbers
263
694066
2358
也可以将八位数的数字
11:36
accurately and instantly with a pocket calculator.
264
696424
3187
准确快速地用一个袖珍计算器相乘。
11:39
Conversely, I at age 75
265
699611
2170
相反地,我在75 岁时
11:41
am incompetent at skills
266
701781
2664
无法驾驭日常生活中
11:44
essential for everyday life.
267
704445
2454
所必须的技能。
11:46
My family's first TV set in 1948
268
706899
2784
我家1948 年的第一台电视
11:49
had only three knobs that I quickly mastered:
269
709683
3053
只有三个旋钮,我很快就掌握了要如何使用:
11:52
an on-off switch, a volume knob,
270
712736
2750
一个电源开关,一个音量旋钮
11:55
and a channel selector knob.
271
715486
2221
和一个频道选择钮。
11:57
Today, just to watch a program
272
717707
2088
今天,为了要在我自家的
11:59
on the TV set in my own house,
273
719795
2456
电视上看个节目,
12:02
I have to operate a 41-button TV remote
274
722251
3717
我必须要操作一个 41钮的电视遥控器,
12:05
that utterly defeats me.
275
725968
1982
这完全难倒了我。
12:07
I have to telephone my 25-year-old sons
276
727950
3014
我只好打电话给我 25 岁的儿子们
12:10
and ask them to talk me through it
277
730964
2197
让他们在电话里一步一步地告诉我
12:13
while I try to push those wretched 41 buttons.
278
733161
4997
怎么操作那些可悲的 41个按钮。
12:18
What can we do to improve the lives of the elderly
279
738158
2647
我们可以做些什么来改善在美国的老人的生活
12:20
in the U.S., and to make better use of their value?
280
740805
3454
和更好地利用他们的价值吗?
12:24
That's a huge problem.
281
744259
1774
这是一个巨大的问题。
12:26
In my remaining four minutes today,
282
746033
2471
在我今天剩下的四分钟内,
12:28
I can offer just a few suggestions.
283
748504
2577
我仅能提供几个建议。
12:31
One value of older people is that they are
284
751081
1922
老人的一个价值是他们
12:33
increasingly useful as grandparents
285
753003
3444
作为祖父母,
12:36
for offering high-quality childcare
286
756447
2507
在为其孙辈提供高品质的儿童照顾上
12:38
to their grandchildren, if they choose to do it,
287
758954
2653
越来越有用,如果他们选择做这件事,
12:41
as more young women enter the workforce
288
761607
2849
因为越来越多的年轻妇女参与劳动
12:44
and as fewer young parents of either gender
289
764456
2334
以及越来越少的年轻父母中任一一方
12:46
stay home as full-time caretakers of their children.
290
766790
3660
留在家里全职照顾他们的孩子。
12:50
Compared to the usual alternatives
291
770450
2036
相比于常见的
12:52
of paid babysitters and day care centers,
292
772486
3598
带薪保姆和托儿所这些选择,
12:56
grandparents offer superior, motivated,
293
776084
3127
祖父母提供更优越,更有动力的,
12:59
experienced child care.
294
779211
2688
经验丰富的儿童照顾。
13:01
They've already gained experience from raising their own children.
295
781899
3266
他们已经从养育自己的孩子中取得了经验。
13:05
They usually love their grandchildren,
296
785165
2344
他们通常爱他们的孙辈,
13:07
and are eager to spend time with them.
297
787509
2665
并渴望能花时间和他们在一起。
13:10
Unlike other caregivers,
298
790174
1901
与其他护理人员不同,
13:12
grandparents don't quit their job
299
792075
2897
爷爷奶奶不会因为
13:14
because they found another job with higher pay
300
794972
2436
找到了另一份收入更高的
13:17
looking after another baby.
301
797408
3513
照顾另一个孩子的工作而辞职。
13:20
A second value of older people is paradoxically
302
800921
2404
老年人的第二个价值,矛盾的是
13:23
related to their loss of value
303
803325
2661
与其因世界状况和技术的变化
13:25
as a result of changing world conditions and technology.
304
805986
4073
造成的价值损失有关。
13:30
At the same time, older people have gained
305
810059
2036
与此同时,老人们获得了
13:32
in value today precisely because
306
812095
2311
今天的价值恰恰是因为
13:34
of their unique experience of living conditions
307
814406
3109
他们在那些如今已经罕见的生活状况上
13:37
that have now become rare
308
817515
1719
的独特经验
13:39
because of rapid change, but that could come back.
309
819234
3310
这些情况由于快速的变化而变得罕见,但有可能会再出现。
13:42
For example, only Americans now in their 70s
310
822544
2954
例如,只有70多岁或更老的美国人
13:45
or older today can remember
311
825498
2260
今天会记得
13:47
the experience of living through a great depression,
312
827758
3328
在大萧条中存活的经验,
13:51
the experience of living through a world war,
313
831086
2638
在世界大战中存活的经验,
13:53
and agonizing whether or not
314
833724
2546
和烦恼到底是
13:56
dropping atomic bombs would be more horrible
315
836270
3037
扔原子炸弹的后果比较严重
13:59
than the likely consequences of not dropping atomic bombs.
316
839307
4113
还是不扔原子弹可能出现的后果比较严重。
14:03
Most of our current voters and politicians
317
843420
2276
大多数我们当前的选民和政治家
14:05
have no personal experience of any of those things,
318
845696
2732
都没有亲身经历过这些事情,
14:08
but millions of older Americans do.
319
848428
2695
但数以百万计的美国老年人经历过。
14:11
Unfortunately, all of those terrible situations
320
851123
2651
不幸的是,所有这些可怕的情况
14:13
could come back.
321
853774
1387
都有可能再发生。
14:15
Even if they don't come back,
322
855161
1306
即使它们不再发生,
14:16
we have to be able to plan for them
323
856467
2192
我们必须能够为此做好准备
14:18
on the basis of the experience of what they were like.
324
858659
2811
基于经验所知的状况。
14:21
Older people have that experience.
325
861470
1834
老人们有这个经验。
14:23
Younger people don't.
326
863304
2053
但年轻人没有。
14:25
The remaining value of older people
327
865357
1520
我将要提到的老人的其他价值
14:26
that I'll mention involves recognizing that
328
866877
2443
是关于(我们需要)认识到
14:29
while there are many things that older people
329
869320
2580
虽然有很多事情,老人
14:31
can no longer do,
330
871900
1606
不能再做了,
14:33
there are other things that they can do
331
873506
1489
但也有其他的事情,他们仍可以做
14:34
better than younger people.
332
874995
2095
得比年轻人更好。
14:37
A challenge for society is to make use of those things
333
877090
2896
社会面临的一个挑战就是要利用那些
14:39
that older people are better at doing.
334
879986
2472
老人能做得更好事情。
14:42
Some abilities, of course, decrease with age.
335
882458
3249
当然,一些能力会随着年龄的增长而变差。
14:45
Those include abilities at tasks
336
885707
2638
这些包括完成
14:48
requiring physical strength and stamina,
337
888345
3571
需要体力和耐力,
14:51
ambition, and the power of novel reasoning
338
891916
3124
野心及在特定情况下有创意的推理力
14:55
in a circumscribed situation,
339
895040
2425
的这类任务的能力,
14:57
such as figuring out the structure of DNA,
340
897465
2588
如想出DNA的结构,
15:00
best left to scientists under the age of 30.
341
900053
3901
最好还是留给30岁以下的科学家去做。
15:03
Conversely, valuable attributes
342
903954
1649
相反的,随着年龄的增加
15:05
that increase with age include experience,
343
905603
3546
会更有价值的,包括经验,
15:09
understanding of people and human relationships,
344
909149
3013
了解人和人之间的关系,
15:12
ability to help other people
345
912162
2291
不被自我意识影响地
15:14
without your own ego getting in the way,
346
914453
2428
去帮助其他人,
15:16
and interdisciplinary thinking about large databases,
347
916881
3525
以及跨学科地思考大型数据库的能力,
15:20
such as economics and comparative history,
348
920406
2825
如经济学和比较历史等事情,
15:23
best left to scholars over the age of 60.
349
923231
3214
最好留给年龄超过 60 岁的学者来做。
15:26
Hence older people are much better than younger people
350
926445
2472
因此,老年人比年轻人
15:28
at supervising, administering, advising,
351
928917
3971
在监督、 管理、 咨询、
15:32
strategizing, teaching, synthesizing,
352
932888
3482
战略规划、 教学、综合,
15:36
and devising long-term plans.
353
936370
2706
及制定长期计划上更擅长。
15:39
I've seen this value of older people
354
939076
2020
我在老年人身上看到这个价值
15:41
with so many of my friends in their 60s,
355
941096
2572
包括我那些60多岁,
15:43
70s, 80s and 90s,
356
943668
1990
70多岁,80多岁和90多岁的朋友们,
15:45
who are still active as investment managers,
357
945658
3285
这些人依然是活跃的投资管理人,
15:48
farmers, lawyers and doctors.
358
948943
3013
农民、 律师和医生。
15:51
In short, many traditional societies
359
951956
2130
总之,许多传统社会
15:54
make better use of their elderly
360
954086
2113
比我们现代化大社会,
15:56
and give their elderly more satisfying lives
361
956199
3110
更好地利用他们的老年人
15:59
than we do in modern, big societies.
362
959309
2850
也给老人更满足的生活。
16:02
Paradoxically nowadays,
363
962159
1865
矛盾的是,现在,
16:04
when we have more elderly people than ever before,
364
964024
2926
当我们比以往任何时候,
16:06
living healthier lives and with better medical care
365
966950
2721
有更多的老年人健康地生活
16:09
than ever before,
366
969671
1486
和有更好的医疗照顾,
16:11
old age is in some respects more miserable
367
971157
2707
变老在某些方面反而
16:13
than ever before.
368
973864
1767
比以往任何时候更惨。
16:15
The lives of the elderly are widely recognized
369
975631
2422
老人生活状态被公认
16:18
as constituting a disaster area
370
978053
2767
构成了现代美国社会
16:20
of modern American society.
371
980820
2533
的一个灾难性的部分。
16:23
We can surely do better by learning
372
983353
1681
我们当然可以做得更好,
16:25
from the lives of the elderly
373
985034
1875
通过学习在传统的社会中
16:26
in traditional societies.
374
986909
2012
老人的生活。
16:28
But what's true of the lives of the elderly
375
988921
1942
但,对传统社会
16:30
in traditional societies
376
990863
1464
老人生活来说是对的事情,
16:32
is true of many other features
377
992327
1695
对许多其他
16:34
of traditional societies as well.
378
994022
2594
传统社会的特点来说也是对的。
16:36
Of course, I'm not advocating that we all give up
379
996616
2589
当然,我不主张我们都放弃
16:39
agriculture and metal tools
380
999205
2115
农业和金属工具
16:41
and return to a hunter-gatherer lifestyle.
381
1001320
3084
并返回狩猎采集的生活方式。
16:44
There are many obvious respects
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在许多明显的方面
16:45
in which our lives today are far happier
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我们今天的生活远比
16:48
than those in small, traditional societies.
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在那些小的、 传统的社会更快乐。
16:51
To mention just a few examples,
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举几个例子,
16:53
our lives are longer, materially much richer,
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比在传统社会中人的生活。
16:56
and less plagued by violence
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我们活得更久,物质更丰富,
16:58
than are the lives of people in traditional societies.
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也少受暴力迫害。
17:01
But there are also things to be admired
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但传统社会中的人们
17:04
about people in traditional societies,
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的一些事情也值得敬佩,
17:06
and perhaps to be learned from them.
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或许应该向他们学习。
17:08
Their lives are usually socially much richer
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他们的生活通常在社交上
17:11
than our lives,
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比我们的生活更丰富
17:12
although materially poorer.
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虽然物质上比较贫乏。
17:15
Their children are more self-confident,
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他们的孩子们更自信
17:18
more independent, and more socially skilled
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更独立,和在社会上更熟练,
17:20
than are our children.
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比起我们的孩子。
17:23
They think more realistically about dangers than we do.
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他们比我们更实际地对待危险。
17:26
They almost never die of diabetes, heart disease,
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他们几乎从来不会死于糖尿病、 心脏病、
17:30
stroke, and the other noncommunicable diseases
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中风和其他非传染性疾病,
17:33
that will be the causes of death of almost
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而这些将会是我们今天
17:36
all of us in this room today.
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在这里的所有人的死因。
17:39
Features of the modern lifestyle predispose us to those diseases,
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现代生活方式的特点让我们更容易患上这些疾病,
17:43
and features of the traditional lifestyle
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而传统生活方式的特点
17:45
protect us against them.
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保护我们免受这些疾病的伤害。
17:47
Those are just some examples of what we can learn
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这些只是几个例子来说明我们能
17:50
from traditional societies.
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从传统社会中学习什么。
17:52
I hope that you will find it as fascinating
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我希望你会发现,
17:54
to read about traditional societies
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了解传统社会
17:56
as I found it to live in those societies.
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和我觉得在这些社会中生活一样引人入胜。
17:59
Thank you.
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谢谢。
18:01
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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