The next global agricultural revolution | Bruce Friedrich

翻译人员: Mugai Hsiung 校对人员: Ziyao Wang

In 2019, humanity received a warning:

2019年，人类了收到一个警告，

30 of the world's leading scientists released the results

30位世界顶尖的科学家 发布了一项

of a massive three-year study into global agriculture

对全球农业长达三年的 研究结果，

and declared that meat production is destroying our planet

宣称肉类的生产 正在摧毁我们的家园，

and jeopardizing global health.

并危害全球安全。

One of the study's authors explained

该研究的一位作者解释说：

that "humanity now poses a threat to the stability of the planet ...

“人类正在危害地球的稳定...

[This requires] nothing less than a new global agricultural revolution."

（为解决问题）我们需要 一场新的世界农业革命。“

As somebody who's spent the last two decades

作为一个把过去 二十年的时间都花在

advocating a shift away from industrial meat production,

倡议工业肉类生产转型的人，

I wanted to believe that this clarion call was going to make a difference.

我曾经相信这个号召 会带来些许改变。

The thing is, I've seen this sort of thing again and again and again for decades.

然而，几十年来 此类事件还是反复发生。

Here's 2018 from the journal "Nature,"

这是2018年《自然》杂志的一篇文章，

2017 from "Bioscience Journal,"

这是2017年《生物科学杂志》的一篇文章，

2016 from the National Academy of Sciences.

这是2016年 《美国科学院学报》上的文章，

The main point of these studies tends to be climate change.

这些研究的重点都是气候变化。

But antibiotic resistance represents just as big of a threat.

但抗生素耐药性 也是一个很大的威胁。

We are feeding massive doses of antibiotics to farm animals.

我们给农场动物 喂食大量的抗生素。

These antibiotics are then mutating into superbugs

这些抗生素随后 转变为超级细菌，

that threaten to render antibiotics obsolete

使得我们有生之年 研究出的抗生素

within all of our lifetimes.

都不再有效。

You want a scare?

想知道后果吗？

Google: "the end of working antibiotics."

可以去百度一下 “有效抗生素的终结”。

I'm going to get one thing out of the way:

我想说明的是：

I am not here to tell anybody what to eat.

我不是来教大家该吃什么的。

Individual action is great,

个体行为固然很好，

but antibiotic resistance and climate change --

但是要解决抗生素耐药性 和气候变化问题——

they require more.

这还远远不够。

Besides, convincing the world to eat less meat hasn't worked.

并且，劝大家少吃肉 是没有效果的。

For 50 years, environmentalists, global health experts and animal activists

50多年来，环境学家， 国际卫生专家以及动物保护者

have been begging the public to eat less meat.

一直苦口婆心地 劝告大家少吃肉。

And yet, per capita meat consumption

然而，人均肉类消耗量

is as high as it's been in recorded history.

自有历史记载以来 一直都居高不下。

The average North American last year ate more than 200 pounds of meat.

去年北美人均消耗肉类 200多磅（约90.7kg）。

And I didn't eat any.

我可一点肉都没吃。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Which means somebody out there ate 400 pounds of meat.

这意味着有人吃了400磅。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

On our current trajectory,

以目前的趋势来看，

we're going to need to be producing 70 to 100 percent more meat by 2050.

到2050年，我们生产的肉类 要比现在多70％-100％。

This requires a global solution.

这个问题需要 全人类一起解决。

What we need to do is we need to produce the meat that people love,

我们需要做的是， 生产人们喜爱的肉类，

but we need to produce it in a whole new way.

不过我们要以一种 全新的方式生产。

I've got a couple of ideas.

我有几个主意。

Idea number one: let's grow meat from plants.

其一：从植物中生产肉。

Instead of growing plants, feeding them to animals,

不再把植物当作动物饲料，

and all of that inefficiency,

那样效率太低了。

let's grow those plants, let's biomimic meat with them,

我们可以种植物， 然后仿生肉类，

let's make plant-based meat.

做出素肉。

Idea number two: for actual animal meat,

其二：如果想做真的肉，

let's grow it directly from cells.

我们可以用细胞培育。

而不是养殖牲畜， 我们直接培育细胞。

Instead of growing live animals, let's grow the cells directly.

It takes six weeks to grow a chicken to slaughter weight.

将鸡养到可以屠宰 的重量需要六周。

Grow the cells directly, you can get that same growth

直接培育细胞的话， 要达到同样大小，

in six days.

只需六天。

This is what that looks like at scale.

这就是规模化的生产过程。

It's your friendly neighborhood meat brewery.

就像是你家附近美妙的 肉类“啤酒厂”。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I want to make two points about this.

我想说的有两点。

The first one is, we believe we can do it.

一是：我们相信 我们能够做到。

In recent years, some companies have been producing meat from plants

近年来，有些公司 已经在生产素肉了，

that consumers cannot distinguish from actual animal meat,

消费者分别不出素肉 和真肉口感的区别。

and there are now dozens of companies growing actual animal meat

并且，有一批工厂 已经直接从细胞中

directly from cells.

生产肉类。

This plant-based and cell-based meat

素肉和细胞肉

gives consumers everything that they love about meat --

能还提供消费者喜爱的 关于肉的一切 ——

the taste, the texture and so on --

味道，质地，等等。

but with no need for antibiotics

但不需要抗生素，

and with a fraction of the adverse impact on the climate.

对地球气候也 只有很小的影响。

And because these two technologies are so much more efficient,

由于这两项技术 生产肉类效率如此高，

at production scale

如果大规模生产，

these products will be cheaper.

肉类产品会更便宜。

But one quick point about that --

但是要知道，

it's not going to be easy.

这项技术不那么简单。

These plant-based companies have spent small fortunes on their burgers,

生产素肉的公司已经 在产品上投入大笔资金，

and cell-based meat has not yet been commercialized at all.

细胞肉也没有完全进入市场。

So we're going to need all hands on deck

所以我们需要所有人共同努力，

to make these the global meat industry.

来建造全球范围的产业。

For starters, we need the present meat industry.

首先，我们仍需要 现存的肉类产业。

We don't want to disrupt the meat industry,

我们不想干扰肉类产业，

we want to transform it.

我们想要它转型。

We need their economies of scale,

我们需要他们的经济规模，

their global supply chain, their marketing expertise

他们的全球供应链，营销技术，

and their massive consumer base.

以及广大消费者的基础。

We also need governments.

我们还需要各国政府的支持。

Governments spend tens of billions of dollars every single year

各国政府每年在全球健康和环境方面的

on research and development

研究和开发上

focused on global health and the environment.

花费了数百亿美元。

They should be putting some of that money into optimizing and perfecting

他们应该把部分资金 用来优化和完善

the production of plant-based and cell-based meat.

素肉和细胞肉的生产。

Look, tens of thousands of people died from antibiotic-resistant superbugs

在北美，仅仅去年一年，

就有数以万计的人们死于 有抗生素耐药性的超级病菌。

in North America just last year.

By 2050, that number is going to be 10 million per year globally.

到2050年，该数字 会达到每年全球数千万。

And climate change represents an existential threat

还有，气候变化 对全球很多家庭

to huge portions of our global family,

构成了毁灭性的威胁，

including some of the poorest people on the face of the planet.

这里面包括一部分 全球最贫困人口。

Climate change, antibiotic resistance -- these are global emergencies.

气候变化、抗生素耐药性 都是全球性紧急事件。

Meat production is exacerbating these emergencies on a global scale.

肉类生产恶化了 它们的紧急程度。

But we are not going to decrease meat consumption

但我们不会减少肉类消耗，

unless we give consumers alternatives

除非我们能提供给消费者

that cost the same or less and that taste the same or better.

一些同样价钱或更加便宜， 口味相同或更好的替代品。

We have the solution.

我们有解决方案。

Let's make meat from plants. Let's grow it directly from cells.

让我们用植物生产肉， 或直接用细胞培育。

It's past time that we mobilize the resources that are necessary

我们已经动用了所需的资源，

to create the next global agricultural revolution.

是时候进行下一场 全球农业革命了。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）