Harvey Fineberg: Are we ready for neo-evolution?

翻译人员: Jeff Luk 校对人员: Jenny Yang

How would you like to be better than you are?

如果你可以比现在的你更好，你希望是怎样？

Suppose I said

比如说，

that, with just a few changes in your genes,

你的基因可以有一些改动，

you could get a better memory --

使得你有更好的记忆力，

more precise,

更精确，

more accurate and quicker.

更准且更快。

Or maybe you'd like to be more fit, stronger,

或者你想变得更健康，更强壮，

with more stamina.

更多的精力。

Would you like to be more attractive and self-confident?

你想变得更具吸引力，更加自信？

How about living longer with good health?

能健康地活很久，这怎么样？

Or perhaps you're one of those

或者，你是

who's always yearned for more creativity.

想要有更多的创造力。

Which one would you like the most?

你最想要什么呢？

Which would you like, if you could have just one?

如果你只能有一样，你想要什么？

(Audience Member: Creativity.)

（听众：创造力。）

Creativity.

创造力。

How many people would choose creativity?

有多少人要选创造力？

Raise your hands. Let me see.

举起您的手，让我看看。

A few. Probably about as many as there are creative people here.

有一些。或许和我们这里有创造力的人数一样多。

(Laughter) That's very good.

那非常好。

How many would opt for memory?

有多少想要记忆力？

Quite a few more.

多一些了。

How about fitness?

健康呢？

A few less.

少一些。

What about longevity?

长寿呢？

Ah, the majority. That makes me feel very good as a doctor.

啊，大多数。我是医生，看到这里我很高兴。

If you could have any one of these,

如果你能有这其中之一的改变，

it would be a very different world.

世界将会非常不同。

Is it just imaginary?

这只是想象吗？

Or, is it, perhaps, possible?

或是说，这或许可能发生？

Evolution has been a perennial topic

进化是个永久的话题了，

here at the TED Conference,

在TED的论坛上。

but I want to give you today

但是今天我要告诉你们

one doctor's take on the subject.

关于这个话题的一个医生的看法。

The great 20th-century geneticist,

20世纪著名的遗传学家，

T.G. Dobzhansky,

T.杜布尚斯基（T.G. Dobzhansky），

who was also a communicant

同时他也是受圣餐的教徒，

in the Russian Orthodox Church,

在俄罗斯东正教教堂里。

once wrote an essay that he titled

他曾写过一篇文章，名为：

"Nothing in Biology Makes Sense

“生物学的一切很难说通，

Except in the Light of Evolution."

除非用进化的思想来思考。”

Now if you are one of those

现在，如果你是

who does not accept the evidence for biological evolution,

不相信生物进化证据的

this would be a very good time to turn off your hearing aid,

现在你可以关掉你的助听器的时候了，

take out your personal communications device --

拿出你的个人通讯设备了 --

I give you permission --

你得到允许了 --

and perhaps take another look at Kathryn Schultz's book on being wrong,

或者再看一次卡瑟林·舒尔茨（Kathryn Schulz)那本关于犯错的书。

because nothing in the rest of this talk

因为接下来的演讲

is going to make any sense whatsoever to you.

你将感觉到没有任何意义。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But if you do accept

可如果你相信

biological evolution,

生物进化论，

consider this:

想想一下这个：

is it just about the past,

那是关于过去的，

or is it about the future?

还是关于将来的？

Does it apply to others,

那是发生在其他生物身上的，

or does it apply to us?

还是我们也会发生？

This is another look at the tree of life.

这是一张生命树的图。

In this picture,

在这张图片里，

I've put a bush with a center branching out in all directions,

我让树状从中心向各个方向展开分支，

because if you look at the edges

因为如果看生命树的

of the tree of life,

边角部分，

every existing species

每个现有的物种

at the tips of those branches

在那些分支尖端的，

has succeeded in evolutionary terms:

用进化术语来说，都是成功的，

it has survived;

存活了。

it has demonstrated a fitness

这表明了一种适合度

to its environment.

对它的环境。

The human part of this branch,

人类的部分，在这个分支里，

way out on one end,

在一个边角的末端，

is, of course, the one that we are most interested in.

当然是我们最感兴趣的。

We branch off of a common ancestor

我们从一个共同祖先分支出来

to modern chimpanzees

和现代黑猩猩分开

about six or eight million years ago.

大概是600万或800万年前。

In the interval,

在这期间，

there have been perhaps 20 or 25

大概有20到25个

different species of hominids.

类人的物种。

Some have come and gone.

有些来过又走了。

We have been here for about 130,000 years.

我们在这里生存了13万年。

It may seem like we're quite remote

看起来，我们似乎

from other parts of this tree of life,

和这生命树的其他物种离得很远。

but actually, for the most part,

但事实上，在很多层面上，

the basic machinery of our cells

组成我们细胞的基本的基本的构造

is pretty much the same.

是几乎一样的。

Do you realize that we can take advantage

你知道吗？我们可以利用

and commandeer the machinery of a common bacterium

和应用一个普通细菌的构造

to produce the protein of human insulin

来制造人类胰岛素的蛋白质

used to treat diabetics?

而用来治疗糖尿病？

This is not like human insulin;

这并非人类的胰岛素；

this is the same protein

这是一样的蛋白质

that is chemically indistinguishable

在生化角度上

from what comes out of your pancreas.

和我们胰腺生成的很难区分。

And speaking of bacteria,

说到细菌，

do you realize that each of us carries in our gut

你知道我们每人肚子里的细菌

more bacteria

多于

than there are cells in the rest of our body?

我们身体里的细胞？

Maybe 10 times more.

也许有10倍还要多。

I mean think of it,

大家想想，

when Antonio Damasio asks about your self-image,

当安东尼奥·达马西奥（Antonio R Damasio）问你个人自我形象时，

do you think about the bacteria?

你会想到细菌吗？

Our gut is a wonderfully hospitable environment

我们的肠子是一个很适宜的环境，

for those bacteria.

对那些细菌来说。

It's warm, it's dark, it's moist,

温暖，黑暗，潮湿，

it's very cozy.

相当舒适。

And you're going to provide all the nutrition that they could possibly want

而且，我们还会提供给它们需要的几乎所有的养分

with no effort on their part.

它们不费任何力气。

It's really like an Easy Street for bacteria,

对细菌来说，这真是逍遥自在，

with the occasional interruption

虽然有偶尔的打扰

of the unintended forced rush to the exit.

被不情愿地排放出去。

But otherwise,

但仍然，

you are a wonderful environment for those bacteria,

对细菌来说，你是一个极好的生活环境，

just as they are essential to your life.

而且他们对你的生活也是必需的。

They help in the digestion of essential nutrients,

他们帮助消化你所需的养分。

and they protect you against certain diseases.

而且他们还保护你抵抗一些疾病。

But what will come in the future?

不过未来会是怎样呢？

Are we at some kind of evolutionary equipoise

我们是否已经处于进化上的平衡，

as a species?

作为一个物种？

Or, are we destined

或者，我们的命运是

to become something different --

会变成其他不同的物种 ——

something, perhaps, even better adapted

其他或许能更好地适应

to the environment?

环境？

Now let's take a step back in time

现在让我们回到

to the Big Bang, 14 billion years ago --

宇宙大爆炸的时候，140亿年前 —

the Earth, the solar system,

地球，太阳系，

about four and a half billion years --

大概是45亿年前 —

the first signs of proto-life,

原始生命的最初跡象，

maybe three to four billion years ago on Earth --

可能三、四十亿年前的地球 —

the first multi-celled organisms,

第一个多细胞有机体，

perhaps as much

大概是在

as 800 or a billion years ago --

8亿或者10亿年前 —

and then the human species,

然后是人类这一物种

finally emerging

终于出现在

in the last 130,000 years.

最后的13万年。

In this vast unfinished symphony of the universe,

在这宇宙的庞大的未完成的交响曲中，

life on Earth is like a brief measure;

地球上的生命就如一个简单的乐谱；

the animal kingdom,

动物，

like a single measure;

是单一的小节

and human life,

而人类，

a small grace note.

是一个装饰音。

That was us.

那就是我们。

That also constitutes the entertainment portion of this talk,

那也是这次演讲的有趣的部分，

so I hope you enjoyed it.

我希望你们喜欢。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Now when I was a freshman in college,

在我还是大学新生的时候，

I took my first biology class.

我上了我第一节生物学课。

I was fascinated

我很震惊，

by the elegance and beauty of biology.

生物学是优雅且美丽的。

I became enamored of the power of evolution,

我为进化的力量而着迷，

and I realized something very fundamental:

并意识到一个很基本的东西：

in most of the existence of life

在大部分生命存在的形式中，

in single-celled organisms,

在单细胞生物体中，

each cell simply divides,

每一个细胞的简单构造，

and all of the genetic energy of that cell

和所有该细胞的基因能量，

is carried on in both daughter cells.

都被子细胞继承。

But at the time multi-celled organisms come online,

不过在多细胞生物体出来的时候，

things start to change.

情况开始变化。

Sexual reproduction enters the picture.

有性生殖开始进入画面。

And very importantly,

而且非常重要的是，

with the introduction of sexual reproduction

采用有性生殖的方式

that passes on the genome,

而传递的基因，

the rest of the body

而其他部分

becomes expendable.

变得可消耗。

In fact, you could say

实际上，你可以说

that the inevitability of the death of our bodies

我们部分的死亡的必然性

enters in evolutionary time

出现在进化里

at the same moment

和有性繁殖

as sexual reproduction.

同时发生

Now I have to confess,

如今我得说

when I was a college undergraduate,

当我还是大学生的时候

I thought, okay, sex/death, sex/death, death for sex --

我当时想，好吧，性/死亡，性/死亡，为性而亡—

it seemed pretty reasonable at the time,

那时候听起来还是挺合理的，

but with each passing year,

但一年一年过去

I've come to have increasing doubts.

我开始产生很多疑问。

I've come to understand the sentiments of George Burns,

我开始理解乔治伯恩斯（George Burns），

who was performing still in Las Vegas

他之前一直在拉斯维加斯表演

well into his 90s.

直到他90岁。

And one night, there's a knock at his hotel room door.

有一天晚上，有人敲他住的酒店的门。

He answers the door.

他开了门。

Standing before him is a gorgeous, scantily clad showgirl.

出现在他面前的是一个漂亮的穿得很少舞女。

She looks at him and says,

她看着他说，

"I'm here for super sex."

“我来这里是想要做个大爱。”

"That's fine," says George, "I'll take the soup."

“好的，”乔治说，“那我就喝汤吧。” (Soup 发音接近Super.)

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I came to realize,

我开始意识到

as a physician,

作为一个医生

that I was working toward a goal

一直以来我努力的方向

which was different from the goal of evolution --

是一个不同于进化方向的方向 —

not necessarily contradictory, just different.

并不是绝对的矛盾，只是不同。

I was trying to preserve the body.

我一直是在努力去保持

I wanted to keep us healthy.

想要使得我们健康。

I wanted to restore health from disease.

想要使得我们从疾病中恢复。

I wanted us to live long and healthy lives.

想要我们活得更长久更健康。

Evolution is all about passing on the genome

进化，却是传递基因

to the next generation,

给下一代

adapting and surviving

适应和存活

through generation after generation.

从上一代到下一代。

From an evolutionary point of view,

从进化论的观点来看，

you and I are like the booster rockets

我们就像是火箭助推器

designed to send the genetic payload

被设计成发送“基因”载荷

into the next level of orbit

到下一层轨道

and then drop off into the sea.

然后再跌落大海。

I think we would all understand the sentiment that Woody Allen expressed

我想我们都应该理解伍迪·艾伦（Woody Allen）所说的，

when he said, "I don't want to achieve immortality through my work.

他说，“我不想通过我的工作而不朽，

I want to achieve it through not dying."

“我想通过不死而不朽。”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Evolution does not necessarily

进化，不是一定

favor the longest-lived.

是要活得更长久。

It doesn't necessarily favor the biggest

它不一定看中那些个头最大的

or the strongest or the fastest,

或者最强壮的，或者速度最快的

and not even the smartest.

而且甚至不是最聪明的。

Evolution favors

进化想要的

those creatures best adapted

是那些能最好适应

to their environment.

它们环境的生物。

That is the sole test

这是一个单一的

of survival and success.

成功存活的测试。

At the bottom of the ocean,

在大海深处，

bacteria that are thermophilic

细菌都是耐热的

and can survive at the steam vent heat

它们能在热蒸汽中生存

that would otherwise produce, if fish were there,

不然地话，如果那里有鱼，就会有

sous-vide cooked fish,

苏斯维特煮鱼，

nevertheless, have managed

不过，它们却可以

to make that a hospitable environment for them.

让自己生活在一个舒服的环境里。

So what does this mean,

所以，这意味着什么，

as we look back at what has happened in evolution,

当我们回头看进化过程中发生的事情，

and as we think about the place again

以及我们再想想

of humans in evolution,

进化中的人类，

and particularly as we look ahead

特别是我们向上看

to the next phase,

到下一个阶段的时候

I would say

我只能说

that there are a number of possibilities.

有很多的可能性。

The first is that we will not evolve.

第一种可能，我们不会进化了。

We have reached

我们已经达到了

a kind of equipoise.

某个平衡点。

And the reasoning behind that would be,

这背后的原因可能是，

first, we have, through medicine,

首先，我们通过药物，

managed to preserve a lot of genes

可以保留很多基因

that would otherwise be selected out

那些本会被淘汰

and be removed from the population.

和从大多数人中移除的基因。

And secondly, we as a species

其次，我们是一个

have so configured our environment

能够配置我们的环境的物种

that we have managed to make it adapt to us

使得环境来适应我们

as well as we adapt to it.

以及我们来适应环境。

And by the way, we immigrate and circulate

另外，我们移民，流通

and intermix so much

而且混杂在一起

that you can't any longer

这使得你不在

have the isolation that is necessary

处于隔离状态，而这个状态又正是

for evolution to take place.

进化发生的必要条件。

A second possibility

第二种可能，

is that there will be evolution of the traditional kind,

就还是传统的进化形式，

natural, imposed by the forces of nature.

自然的，由自然界力量推动的。

And the argument here would be

在此争议的就是

that the wheels of evolution grind slowly,

进化的轮盘转得缓慢，

but they are inexorable.

是不能阻挡。

And as far as isolation goes,

只有孤立现象存在，

when we as a species

而我们作为一个物种

do colonize distant planets,

统治着遥远的星球

there will be the isolation and the environmental changes

那就会有孤立的现象，环境的改变

that could produce evolution

会导致的进化

in the natural way.

自然界方式的进化。

But there's a third possibility,

但是有第三种可能，

an enticing, intriguing and frightening possibility.

一种诱人的，有趣且骇人的可能性。

I call it neo-evolution --

我把它叫做：新进化 —

the new evolution

一种新的进化方式

that is not simply natural,

不是简单的自然界方式，

but guided and chosen

是有指导和选择的方式

by us as individuals

由我们作为个体来

in the choices that we will make.

进行选择而促成的方式。

Now how could this come about?

现在，这要怎么发生呢？

How could it be possible that we would do this?

我们如何可能让这发生呢？

Consider, first, the reality

先来考虑现实

that people today, in some cultures,

现在，一些文化中的人们，

are making choices about their offspring.

他们对他们的后代做的一些选择。

They're, in some cultures,

其中在一些文化中，他们

choosing to have more males than females.

选择更多的男生多余女生。

It's not necessarily good for the society,

对整个社会来说，这必定不是好事，

but it's what the individual and the family are choosing.

但是这确是一个个体和家庭做出的一个选择。

Think also,

再来想想，

if it were possible ever

如果你可以

for you to choose, not simply to choose the sex of your child,

去选择，不是简单的选择你的子女的性别，

but for you in your body

而是选择在你身体里

to make the genetic adjustments

去做一些基因的调整

that would cure or prevent diseases.

可以治愈或者防治疾病的调整。

What if you could make the genetic changes

如果你真能做一些基因的调整

to eliminate diabetes or Alzheimer's

去消除糖尿病或者阿尔茨海默氏症

or reduce the risk of cancer

或者减少癌症的发病率

or eliminate stroke?

或者消除中风？

Wouldn't you want

难道你不想

to make those changes

对你的基因做

in your genes?

那些改变？

If we look ahead,

如果我们向前看，

these kind of changes

这些改变

are going to be increasingly possible.

将会是非常有可能的。

The Human Genome Project

人类基因组计划

started in 1990,

从1990年开始，

and it took 13 years.

并用了13年时间。

It cost 2.7 billion dollars.

它花费了27亿美元。

The year after it was finished in 2004,

在计划完成之后的2004年，

you could do the same job

你能做同样的事情

for 20 million dollars in three to four months.

两千万美元，三到四个月。

Today, you can have a complete sequence

今天你就能得到一个完整的基因序列

of the three billion base pairs in the human genome

包含了人体基因的30亿个碱基对

at a cost of about 20,000 dollars

花费大概是2万美元

and in the space of about a week.

大概是一个星期之内。

It won't be very long

不会太久

before the reality will be

就能实现

the 1,000-dollar human genome,

一千美元的人类基因组，

and it will be increasingly available for everyone.

而且越来越多人都可以做。

Just a week ago,

就在一周前，

the National Academy of Engineering

国家工程院（美国）

awarded its Draper Prize

授予了“德雷珀奖”

to Francis Arnold and Willem Stemmer,

给弗朗西斯·阿诺德（Francis Arnold）和威廉·思特梅尔（Willem Stemmer）

two scientists who independently developed techniques

两位科学家独立开发了技术

to encourage the natural process of evolution to work faster

能使得自然进化过程更快

and to lead to desirable proteins

且更多可取蛋白质

in a more efficient way --

能够更有效地产生。

what Frances Arnold calls "directed evolution."

弗朗西斯·阿诺德（Francis Arnold）称之为“定向进化”。

A couple of years ago, the Lasker Prize

多年前，拉斯克奖(Albert Lasker Prize)

was awarded to the scientist Shinya Yamanaka

授予了科学家山中伸弥（Shinya Yamanaka）

for his research

他的研究

in which he took an adult skin cell,

是他取用成一个成熟的皮肤细胞，

a fibroblast,

一个纤维组织母细胞

and by manipulating just four genes,

并通过操控仅仅四个基因，

he induced that cell

他引导该细胞

to revert to a pluripotential stem cell --

还原成一个多能干细胞 —

a cell potentially capable

一个有可能

of becoming any cell in your body.

成为我们身体中任何细胞的细胞。

These changes are coming.

这些改变正在进行中。

The same technology

同样的技术

that has produced the human insulin in bacteria

就是能从产生病毒的细菌中

can make viruses

生成人体胰岛素

that will not only protect you against themselves,

这将不仅仅是保护你抵抗它们，

but induce immunity against other viruses.

还会产生对其他病毒的免疫力。

Believe it or not,

你是否相信，

there's an experimental trial going on

有一个实验在研究

with vaccine against influenza

预防流感的疫苗

that has been grown in the cells of a tobacco plant.

是从一种烟草植物细胞中培育的。

Can you imagine something good coming out of tobacco?

你能想象烟草中也能有有益的东西吗？

These are all reality today,

这些在今天都是现实，

and [in] the future, will be evermore possible.

而且在未来，会有更多的可能。

Imagine then

届时想想

just two other little changes.

另外两个小的变化。

You can change the cells in your body,

你能改变自己身体中的细胞，

but what if you could change the cells in your offspring?

那如果你能改变你后代的细胞呢？

What if you could change the sperm and the ova,

如果你能改变精子和卵子，

or change the newly fertilized egg,

或者是改变新的受精卵，

and give your offspring a better chance

能给你的后代更好的机会

at a healthier life --

更健康的生活—

eliminate the diabetes, eliminate the hemophilia,

消除了糖尿病，消除了血友病，

reduce the risk of cancer?

减少了癌症的机率？

Who doesn't want healthier children?

谁不想要更健康的儿女呢？

And then, that same analytic technology,

到时候，同样的解析技术，

that same engine of science

同样的科学技术

that can produce

能够产生

the changes to prevent disease,

防御疾病的改变，

will also enable us

也会使得我们

to adopt super-attributes,

能集成一些超级的属性，

hyper-capacities --

高级别的能力 —

that better memory.

更好的记忆力。

Why not have the quick wit

为什么不要

of a Ken Jennings,

肯·詹宁斯（Ken Jenniings）的机智

especially if you can augment it

特别是你能有

with the next generation of the Watson machine?

和下一代沃森电脑系统一样的机智？

Why not have the quick twitch muscle

为什么不要快速的收缩肌肉

that will enable you to run faster and longer?

能让我们跑得更快更持久？

Why not live longer?

为什么不活得更长久？

These will be irresistible.

这些都会不可抗拒。

And when we are at a position

而且当我们处在一个位置

where we can pass it on to the next generation,

我们可以传给下一代，

and we can adopt the attributes we want,

我们可以集成我们想要的能力，

we will have converted

我们就会改变

old-style evolution

旧模式的进化

into neo-evolution.

为新进化。

We'll take a process

我们将有这样的过程

that normally might require 100,000 years,

一般或许需要10万年，

and we can compress it down to a thousand years --

但我们能压缩到一千年 —

and maybe even in the next 100 years.

或许甚至在下一个100年。

These are choices

这些改变

that your grandchildren,

我们的孙辈

or their grandchildren,

或者他们的孙辈

are going to have before them.

将会拥有的。

Will we use these choices

他们会使用这些选择吗？

to make a society that is better,

去创建一个更好的社会？

that is more successful, that is kinder?

更成功的，更友善的社会？

Or, will we selectively choose different attributes

或者我们会有选择性地选择不同的能力

that we want for some of us

改变我们其中的一些人

and not for others of us?

而不是另外的一些人？

Will we make a society

我们是否会创建一个社会

that is more boring and more uniform,

更为无聊和统一？

or more robust and more versatile?

或者更为健全和更多样？

These are the kinds of questions

这是所有的问题

that we will have to face.

是要让我们面对的。

And most profoundly of all,

而最重要的，

will we ever be able to develop the wisdom,

我们能否推进智力，

and to inherit the wisdom,

或者是继承智力，

that we'll need to make these choices wisely?

让我们更明智地来做这些选择？

For better or worse,

或好或坏地，

and sooner than you may think,

比你想象地还要快地

these choices will be up to us.

我们将会面临这些选择。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）