Harvey Fineberg: Are we ready for neo-evolution?

75,033 views ・ 2011-04-26

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:15
How would you like to be better than you are?
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Suppose I said
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that, with just a few changes in your genes,
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you could get a better memory --
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more precise,
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more accurate and quicker.
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Or maybe you'd like to be more fit, stronger,
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with more stamina.
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Would you like to be more attractive and self-confident?
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How about living longer with good health?
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Or perhaps you're one of those
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who's always yearned for more creativity.
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Which one would you like the most?
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Which would you like, if you could have just one?
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(Audience Member: Creativity.)
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Creativity.
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How many people would choose creativity?
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Raise your hands. Let me see.
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A few. Probably about as many as there are creative people here.
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(Laughter) That's very good.
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How many would opt for memory?
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Quite a few more.
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How about fitness?
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A few less.
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What about longevity?
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Ah, the majority. That makes me feel very good as a doctor.
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If you could have any one of these,
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it would be a very different world.
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Is it just imaginary?
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Or, is it, perhaps, possible?
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Evolution has been a perennial topic
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here at the TED Conference,
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but I want to give you today
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one doctor's take on the subject.
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The great 20th-century geneticist,
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T.G. Dobzhansky,
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who was also a communicant
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in the Russian Orthodox Church,
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once wrote an essay that he titled
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"Nothing in Biology Makes Sense
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Except in the Light of Evolution."
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Now if you are one of those
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who does not accept the evidence for biological evolution,
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this would be a very good time to turn off your hearing aid,
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take out your personal communications device --
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I give you permission --
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and perhaps take another look at Kathryn Schultz's book on being wrong,
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because nothing in the rest of this talk
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is going to make any sense whatsoever to you.
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(Laughter)
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But if you do accept
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biological evolution,
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consider this:
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is it just about the past,
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or is it about the future?
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Does it apply to others,
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or does it apply to us?
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This is another look at the tree of life.
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In this picture,
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I've put a bush with a center branching out in all directions,
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because if you look at the edges
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of the tree of life,
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every existing species
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at the tips of those branches
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has succeeded in evolutionary terms:
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it has survived;
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it has demonstrated a fitness
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to its environment.
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The human part of this branch,
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way out on one end,
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is, of course, the one that we are most interested in.
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We branch off of a common ancestor
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to modern chimpanzees
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about six or eight million years ago.
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In the interval,
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there have been perhaps 20 or 25
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different species of hominids.
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Some have come and gone.
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We have been here for about 130,000 years.
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It may seem like we're quite remote
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from other parts of this tree of life,
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but actually, for the most part,
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the basic machinery of our cells
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is pretty much the same.
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Do you realize that we can take advantage
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and commandeer the machinery of a common bacterium
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to produce the protein of human insulin
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used to treat diabetics?
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This is not like human insulin;
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this is the same protein
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that is chemically indistinguishable
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from what comes out of your pancreas.
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And speaking of bacteria,
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do you realize that each of us carries in our gut
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more bacteria
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than there are cells in the rest of our body?
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Maybe 10 times more.
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I mean think of it,
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when Antonio Damasio asks about your self-image,
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do you think about the bacteria?
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Our gut is a wonderfully hospitable environment
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for those bacteria.
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It's warm, it's dark, it's moist,
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it's very cozy.
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And you're going to provide all the nutrition that they could possibly want
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with no effort on their part.
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It's really like an Easy Street for bacteria,
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with the occasional interruption
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of the unintended forced rush to the exit.
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But otherwise,
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you are a wonderful environment for those bacteria,
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just as they are essential to your life.
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They help in the digestion of essential nutrients,
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and they protect you against certain diseases.
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But what will come in the future?
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Are we at some kind of evolutionary equipoise
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as a species?
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Or, are we destined
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to become something different --
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something, perhaps, even better adapted
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to the environment?
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Now let's take a step back in time
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to the Big Bang, 14 billion years ago --
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the Earth, the solar system,
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about four and a half billion years --
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the first signs of proto-life,
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maybe three to four billion years ago on Earth --
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the first multi-celled organisms,
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perhaps as much
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as 800 or a billion years ago --
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and then the human species,
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finally emerging
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in the last 130,000 years.
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In this vast unfinished symphony of the universe,
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life on Earth is like a brief measure;
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the animal kingdom,
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like a single measure;
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and human life,
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a small grace note.
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That was us.
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That also constitutes the entertainment portion of this talk,
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so I hope you enjoyed it.
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(Laughter)
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Now when I was a freshman in college,
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I took my first biology class.
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I was fascinated
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by the elegance and beauty of biology.
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I became enamored of the power of evolution,
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and I realized something very fundamental:
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in most of the existence of life
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in single-celled organisms,
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each cell simply divides,
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and all of the genetic energy of that cell
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is carried on in both daughter cells.
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But at the time multi-celled organisms come online,
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things start to change.
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Sexual reproduction enters the picture.
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And very importantly,
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with the introduction of sexual reproduction
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that passes on the genome,
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the rest of the body
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becomes expendable.
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In fact, you could say
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that the inevitability of the death of our bodies
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enters in evolutionary time
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at the same moment
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as sexual reproduction.
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Now I have to confess,
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when I was a college undergraduate,
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I thought, okay, sex/death, sex/death, death for sex --
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it seemed pretty reasonable at the time,
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but with each passing year,
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I've come to have increasing doubts.
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I've come to understand the sentiments of George Burns,
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who was performing still in Las Vegas
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well into his 90s.
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And one night, there's a knock at his hotel room door.
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He answers the door.
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Standing before him is a gorgeous, scantily clad showgirl.
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She looks at him and says,
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"I'm here for super sex."
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"That's fine," says George, "I'll take the soup."
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(Laughter)
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I came to realize,
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as a physician,
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that I was working toward a goal
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which was different from the goal of evolution --
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not necessarily contradictory, just different.
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I was trying to preserve the body.
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I wanted to keep us healthy.
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I wanted to restore health from disease.
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I wanted us to live long and healthy lives.
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Evolution is all about passing on the genome
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to the next generation,
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adapting and surviving
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through generation after generation.
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From an evolutionary point of view,
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you and I are like the booster rockets
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designed to send the genetic payload
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into the next level of orbit
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and then drop off into the sea.
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I think we would all understand the sentiment that Woody Allen expressed
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when he said, "I don't want to achieve immortality through my work.
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I want to achieve it through not dying."
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(Laughter)
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Evolution does not necessarily
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favor the longest-lived.
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It doesn't necessarily favor the biggest
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or the strongest or the fastest,
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and not even the smartest.
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Evolution favors
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those creatures best adapted
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to their environment.
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That is the sole test
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of survival and success.
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At the bottom of the ocean,
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bacteria that are thermophilic
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and can survive at the steam vent heat
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that would otherwise produce, if fish were there,
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sous-vide cooked fish,
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nevertheless, have managed
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to make that a hospitable environment for them.
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So what does this mean,
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as we look back at what has happened in evolution,
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and as we think about the place again
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of humans in evolution,
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and particularly as we look ahead
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to the next phase,
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I would say
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that there are a number of possibilities.
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The first is that we will not evolve.
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We have reached
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a kind of equipoise.
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And the reasoning behind that would be,
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first, we have, through medicine,
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managed to preserve a lot of genes
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that would otherwise be selected out
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and be removed from the population.
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And secondly, we as a species
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have so configured our environment
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that we have managed to make it adapt to us
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as well as we adapt to it.
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And by the way, we immigrate and circulate
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and intermix so much
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that you can't any longer
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have the isolation that is necessary
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for evolution to take place.
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A second possibility
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is that there will be evolution of the traditional kind,
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natural, imposed by the forces of nature.
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And the argument here would be
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that the wheels of evolution grind slowly,
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but they are inexorable.
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And as far as isolation goes,
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when we as a species
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do colonize distant planets,
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there will be the isolation and the environmental changes
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that could produce evolution
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in the natural way.
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But there's a third possibility,
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an enticing, intriguing and frightening possibility.
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I call it neo-evolution --
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the new evolution
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that is not simply natural,
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but guided and chosen
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by us as individuals
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in the choices that we will make.
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Now how could this come about?
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How could it be possible that we would do this?
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Consider, first, the reality
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that people today, in some cultures,
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are making choices about their offspring.
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They're, in some cultures,
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choosing to have more males than females.
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It's not necessarily good for the society,
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but it's what the individual and the family are choosing.
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Think also,
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if it were possible ever
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for you to choose, not simply to choose the sex of your child,
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but for you in your body
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to make the genetic adjustments
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that would cure or prevent diseases.
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What if you could make the genetic changes
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to eliminate diabetes or Alzheimer's
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or reduce the risk of cancer
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or eliminate stroke?
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Wouldn't you want
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to make those changes
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in your genes?
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If we look ahead,
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these kind of changes
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are going to be increasingly possible.
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The Human Genome Project
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started in 1990,
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and it took 13 years.
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It cost 2.7 billion dollars.
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The year after it was finished in 2004,
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you could do the same job
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for 20 million dollars in three to four months.
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Today, you can have a complete sequence
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of the three billion base pairs in the human genome
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at a cost of about 20,000 dollars
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and in the space of about a week.
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It won't be very long
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before the reality will be
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the 1,000-dollar human genome,
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and it will be increasingly available for everyone.
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Just a week ago,
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the National Academy of Engineering
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awarded its Draper Prize
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to Francis Arnold and Willem Stemmer,
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two scientists who independently developed techniques
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to encourage the natural process of evolution to work faster
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and to lead to desirable proteins
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in a more efficient way --
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what Frances Arnold calls "directed evolution."
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A couple of years ago, the Lasker Prize
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was awarded to the scientist Shinya Yamanaka
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for his research
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in which he took an adult skin cell,
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a fibroblast,
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and by manipulating just four genes,
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he induced that cell
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to revert to a pluripotential stem cell --
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a cell potentially capable
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of becoming any cell in your body.
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These changes are coming.
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The same technology
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that has produced the human insulin in bacteria
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can make viruses
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that will not only protect you against themselves,
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but induce immunity against other viruses.
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Believe it or not,
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there's an experimental trial going on
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with vaccine against influenza
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that has been grown in the cells of a tobacco plant.
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Can you imagine something good coming out of tobacco?
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These are all reality today,
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and [in] the future, will be evermore possible.
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Imagine then
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just two other little changes.
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You can change the cells in your body,
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but what if you could change the cells in your offspring?
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What if you could change the sperm and the ova,
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or change the newly fertilized egg,
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and give your offspring a better chance
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at a healthier life --
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eliminate the diabetes, eliminate the hemophilia,
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reduce the risk of cancer?
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Who doesn't want healthier children?
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And then, that same analytic technology,
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that same engine of science
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that can produce
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the changes to prevent disease,
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will also enable us
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to adopt super-attributes,
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hyper-capacities --
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that better memory.
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Why not have the quick wit
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of a Ken Jennings,
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especially if you can augment it
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with the next generation of the Watson machine?
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Why not have the quick twitch muscle
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that will enable you to run faster and longer?
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Why not live longer?
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These will be irresistible.
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And when we are at a position
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where we can pass it on to the next generation,
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and we can adopt the attributes we want,
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we will have converted
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old-style evolution
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into neo-evolution.
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We'll take a process
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that normally might require 100,000 years,
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and we can compress it down to a thousand years --
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and maybe even in the next 100 years.
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These are choices
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that your grandchildren,
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or their grandchildren,
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are going to have before them.
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Will we use these choices
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to make a society that is better,
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that is more successful, that is kinder?
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Or, will we selectively choose different attributes
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that we want for some of us
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and not for others of us?
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Will we make a society
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that is more boring and more uniform,
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or more robust and more versatile?
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These are the kinds of questions
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that we will have to face.
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And most profoundly of all,
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will we ever be able to develop the wisdom,
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and to inherit the wisdom,
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that we'll need to make these choices wisely?
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For better or worse,
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and sooner than you may think,
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these choices will be up to us.
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Thank you.
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(Applause)
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About this website

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