Harvey Fineberg: Are we ready for neo-evolution?

75,040 views ・ 2011-04-26

TED


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Prevoditelj: Veronika Rasic Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG
00:15
How would you like to be better than you are?
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Da li bi voljeli biti bolji nego što jeste?
00:19
Suppose I said
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Zamislite da vam kažem
00:21
that, with just a few changes in your genes,
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da sa samo par promjena u vašim genima,
00:23
you could get a better memory --
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vi bi mogli imati bolju memoriju --
00:25
more precise,
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više preciznu,
00:27
more accurate and quicker.
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točniju i bržu.
00:30
Or maybe you'd like to be more fit, stronger,
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Ili bi možda htjeli biti u boljoj formi, jači,
00:33
with more stamina.
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više izdržljivi.
00:35
Would you like to be more attractive and self-confident?
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Da li bi htjeli biti privlačniji i vise samouvjereni?
00:39
How about living longer with good health?
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A da možete življeti dulje s dobrim zdravljem?
00:42
Or perhaps you're one of those
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Ili možda ste jedni od onih
00:44
who's always yearned for more creativity.
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koji su od uvijek željeli biti više kreativni.
00:47
Which one would you like the most?
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Što od ovoga bi najviše voljeli?
00:51
Which would you like, if you could have just one?
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Što bi vi izabrali, da možete imati samo jedno?
00:53
(Audience Member: Creativity.)
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(Član publike: Kreativnost.)
00:55
Creativity.
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Kreativnost.
00:57
How many people would choose creativity?
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Koliko bi ljudi izabralo kreativnost?
00:59
Raise your hands. Let me see.
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Podignite ruke. Da vidim.
01:01
A few. Probably about as many as there are creative people here.
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Nekoliko vas. Vjerojatno onoliko koliko i ima ovdje kreativnih ljudi.
01:04
(Laughter) That's very good.
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To je jako dobro.
01:06
How many would opt for memory?
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Koliko vas bi izabralo memoriju?
01:09
Quite a few more.
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Više vas.
01:11
How about fitness?
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A dobru formu?
01:13
A few less.
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Malo manje.
01:15
What about longevity?
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Što je s dugovječnosti?
01:17
Ah, the majority. That makes me feel very good as a doctor.
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Ah, većina. To me kao liječnika čini vrlo sretnim.
01:21
If you could have any one of these,
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Da možete imati bilo koju od ovih osobina,
01:24
it would be a very different world.
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bio bi to sasvim drugačiji svijet.
01:26
Is it just imaginary?
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Da li je samo imaginaran?
01:28
Or, is it, perhaps, possible?
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Ili je možda moguć?
01:31
Evolution has been a perennial topic
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Evolucija je trajna tema
01:34
here at the TED Conference,
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ovdje na TED konferenciji,
01:37
but I want to give you today
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ali vam ja danas želim dati
01:39
one doctor's take on the subject.
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stajalište jednog liječnika na ovu temu.
01:41
The great 20th-century geneticist,
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Veliki genetičar 20. stoljeća,
01:43
T.G. Dobzhansky,
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T.G. Dobzhansky,
01:45
who was also a communicant
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koji je bio pričesnik
01:47
in the Russian Orthodox Church,
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u ruskoj ortodoksnoj crkvi
01:49
once wrote an essay that he titled
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jednom je napisao esej kojem je dao naslov
01:52
"Nothing in Biology Makes Sense
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"Ništa u biologiji nema smisla
01:55
Except in the Light of Evolution."
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osim u svijetlu evolucije."
01:58
Now if you are one of those
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Sada, ako ste Vi jedan od onih
02:00
who does not accept the evidence for biological evolution,
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koji ne prihvaća dokaze za biološku evoluciju,
02:03
this would be a very good time to turn off your hearing aid,
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ovo bi bio pravi trenutak da isključite svoje slušne aparate,
02:06
take out your personal communications device --
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izvadite vaš osobni komunikacijski uređaj --
02:08
I give you permission --
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dajem vam dopuštenje --
02:10
and perhaps take another look at Kathryn Schultz's book on being wrong,
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i možda ponovo pogledate knjigu od Kathryn Schultz o tome "kada si u krivu",
02:13
because nothing in the rest of this talk
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zato što ništa u ostatku ovog govora
02:15
is going to make any sense whatsoever to you.
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vam neće biti jasno.
02:18
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:20
But if you do accept
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Ali ako prihvaćate
02:22
biological evolution,
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biološku evoluciju
02:25
consider this:
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rezmotrite ovo:
02:27
is it just about the past,
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da li je to samo o prošlosti,
02:29
or is it about the future?
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ili je o budućnosti?
02:31
Does it apply to others,
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Da li se odnosi na druge,
02:33
or does it apply to us?
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ili na nas?
02:36
This is another look at the tree of life.
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Ovo je još jedan prikaz drva života.
02:39
In this picture,
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Na ovoj slici,
02:41
I've put a bush with a center branching out in all directions,
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stavio sam grm sa središtem koji se grana u svim smjerovima,
02:44
because if you look at the edges
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zato što ako pogledate rubove
02:46
of the tree of life,
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drva života,
02:48
every existing species
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svaka postojeća vrsta
02:50
at the tips of those branches
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na vrhovima tih grana
02:52
has succeeded in evolutionary terms:
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je uspjela u evolucijskom smislu:
02:54
it has survived;
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preživjela je;
02:56
it has demonstrated a fitness
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pokazala je fizičku spremu
02:58
to its environment.
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za svoj okoliš.
03:00
The human part of this branch,
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Ljudski dio ove grane,
03:03
way out on one end,
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skroz vani na jednom kraju,
03:06
is, of course, the one that we are most interested in.
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je naravno dio koji nas najviše zanima.
03:10
We branch off of a common ancestor
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Mi se granamo iz zajedničkog predaka
03:12
to modern chimpanzees
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modernih čimpanzi
03:14
about six or eight million years ago.
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prije oko šest ili osam milijuna godina.
03:17
In the interval,
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U tom intervalu,
03:19
there have been perhaps 20 or 25
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bilo je možda 20 ili 25
03:21
different species of hominids.
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različitih vrsta hominida.
03:24
Some have come and gone.
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Neki su došli i prošli.
03:27
We have been here for about 130,000 years.
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Mi smo ovdje oko 130.000 godina.
03:31
It may seem like we're quite remote
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Možda izgleda kao da smo dosta udaljeni
03:33
from other parts of this tree of life,
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od drugih dijelova ovog stabla života,
03:36
but actually, for the most part,
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ali zapravo, većinski gledano,
03:39
the basic machinery of our cells
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osnovna mašinerija naših stanica
03:42
is pretty much the same.
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je manje više ista.
03:44
Do you realize that we can take advantage
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Da li znate da mi možemo iskoristiti
03:47
and commandeer the machinery of a common bacterium
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i upravljati mašinerijom jedne obične bakterije
03:50
to produce the protein of human insulin
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kako bi ona proizvela protein ljudskog insulina
03:53
used to treat diabetics?
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koji koristimo u liječenju šećerne bolesti?
03:55
This is not like human insulin;
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Ovo nije kao ljudski insulin;
03:57
this is the same protein
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ovo je isti protein
03:59
that is chemically indistinguishable
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koji se kemijski ne razlikuje
04:01
from what comes out of your pancreas.
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od onoga što izlazi iz vaše gušterače.
04:06
And speaking of bacteria,
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Kada spominjem već bakterije,
04:08
do you realize that each of us carries in our gut
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znate li da svatko od nas u svom probavnom sustavu nosi
04:11
more bacteria
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više bakterija
04:13
than there are cells in the rest of our body?
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nego što je stanica u ostatku našeg tijela?
04:15
Maybe 10 times more.
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Možda 10 puta više.
04:17
I mean think of it,
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Zamislite,
04:19
when Antonio Damasio asks about your self-image,
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kada vas Antonio Damasio pita o vašoj slici sebe,
04:22
do you think about the bacteria?
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da li mislite o bakterijama?
04:26
Our gut is a wonderfully hospitable environment
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Naš je probavni sustav predivno gostoljubljiv okoliš
04:28
for those bacteria.
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za te bakterije.
04:30
It's warm, it's dark, it's moist,
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Toplo je, mračno, vlažno,
04:32
it's very cozy.
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jako je udobno.
04:34
And you're going to provide all the nutrition that they could possibly want
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Uz to, vi ćete osigurati svu potrebnu ishranu koju bi oni mogli poželjeti
04:36
with no effort on their part.
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bez bilo kojeg napora s njihove strane.
04:38
It's really like an Easy Street for bacteria,
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To je lagodni životni put za bakterije,
04:41
with the occasional interruption
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s povremenom smetnjom
04:44
of the unintended forced rush to the exit.
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zbog neželjenog prisilnog zaleta prema izlazu.
04:46
But otherwise,
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Ali inače,
04:49
you are a wonderful environment for those bacteria,
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vi ste predivan okoliš za te bakterije,
04:52
just as they are essential to your life.
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kao i što su oni esencijalni u vašem životu.
04:55
They help in the digestion of essential nutrients,
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Oni pomažu u probavljanju esencijalnih hranjivih tvari.
04:58
and they protect you against certain diseases.
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I štite vas od određenih bolesti.
05:02
But what will come in the future?
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Ali što će doći u budućnosti?
05:04
Are we at some kind of evolutionary equipoise
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Jesmo li došli do nekakve evolucionarne ravnoteže
05:07
as a species?
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kao vrsta?
05:09
Or, are we destined
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Ili smo predodređeni
05:11
to become something different --
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da postanemo nešto drugačije --
05:13
something, perhaps, even better adapted
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možda nešto još bolje prilagođeno
05:16
to the environment?
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okolišu?
05:18
Now let's take a step back in time
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Ajmo sada zakoračiti nazad u vremenu
05:21
to the Big Bang, 14 billion years ago --
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do Velikog Praska, prije 14 milijardi godina --
05:24
the Earth, the solar system,
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Zemlja, Sunčev sustav,
05:26
about four and a half billion years --
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prije oko četiri i pol milijardi godina --
05:29
the first signs of proto-life,
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prvi znakovi proto-života,
05:31
maybe three to four billion years ago on Earth --
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na Zemlji možda prije tri do četiri milijardi godina --
05:33
the first multi-celled organisms,
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prvi višestanični organizmi,
05:36
perhaps as much
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možda prije
05:38
as 800 or a billion years ago --
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800 ili milijardu godina --
05:41
and then the human species,
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i onda ljudska vrsta,
05:43
finally emerging
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se konačno pojavila
05:45
in the last 130,000 years.
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u zadnjih 130.000 godina.
05:48
In this vast unfinished symphony of the universe,
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U ovom prostranom nedovršenom simfoniju svemira,
05:51
life on Earth is like a brief measure;
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život na Zemlji je tek kitica;
05:54
the animal kingdom,
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životinjsko carstvo,
05:56
like a single measure;
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kao jedan takt;
05:59
and human life,
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a ljudski život,
06:01
a small grace note.
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kao mala nota.
06:03
That was us.
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To smo bili mi.
06:06
That also constitutes the entertainment portion of this talk,
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Također to konstatira zabavni dio ovog govora,
06:08
so I hope you enjoyed it.
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nadam se da ste uživali.
06:10
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:12
Now when I was a freshman in college,
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Kada sam bio brucoš na fakultetu,
06:15
I took my first biology class.
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išao sam na svoj prvi kolegij iz biologije.
06:17
I was fascinated
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Bio sam fasciniran
06:19
by the elegance and beauty of biology.
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elegancijom i ljepotom biologije.
06:22
I became enamored of the power of evolution,
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Postao sam zaljubljen u moć evolucije,
06:25
and I realized something very fundamental:
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i zaključio sam nešto vrlo fundamentalno:
06:27
in most of the existence of life
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u većini vremena postojanja života
06:29
in single-celled organisms,
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u jednostaničnim organizmima,
06:31
each cell simply divides,
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svaka stanica se jednostavno dijeli,
06:33
and all of the genetic energy of that cell
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i sva genetička energija te stanice
06:36
is carried on in both daughter cells.
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se prenosi na obje stanice kćeri.
06:39
But at the time multi-celled organisms come online,
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Ali u trenutku kada se pojave višestanični organizmi,
06:43
things start to change.
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stvari se počinju mjenjati.
06:45
Sexual reproduction enters the picture.
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Javlja se seksualna reprodukcija.
06:48
And very importantly,
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I što je vrlo bitno,
06:50
with the introduction of sexual reproduction
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s uvođenjem seksualne reprodukcije
06:53
that passes on the genome,
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koja prenosi genom,
06:55
the rest of the body
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ostatak tijela
06:57
becomes expendable.
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postaje potrošna roba.
06:59
In fact, you could say
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Zapravo, mogli bi reći
07:02
that the inevitability of the death of our bodies
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da neizbježna smrt naših tijela
07:05
enters in evolutionary time
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ulazi u evolucionarno vrijeme
07:07
at the same moment
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u istom momentu
07:09
as sexual reproduction.
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kao i seksualna reprodukcija.
07:11
Now I have to confess,
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Sada, moram priznati,
07:13
when I was a college undergraduate,
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kada sam bio na fakultetu,
07:15
I thought, okay, sex/death, sex/death, death for sex --
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mislio sam, ok, seks/smrt, seks/smrt, smrt za seks --
07:19
it seemed pretty reasonable at the time,
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činilo se dosta razumno u to vrijeme,
07:22
but with each passing year,
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ali sa svakom godinom,
07:24
I've come to have increasing doubts.
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počeo sam imati sve veće sumnje.
07:26
I've come to understand the sentiments of George Burns,
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Sada razumijem sentiment George-a Burns-a,
07:29
who was performing still in Las Vegas
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koji je još uvijek nastupao u Las Vegasu
07:31
well into his 90s.
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u svojim 90-tim godinama.
07:33
And one night, there's a knock at his hotel room door.
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Jedne večeri netko mu pokuca na vrata hotelske sobe.
07:35
He answers the door.
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Otvara vrata.
07:37
Standing before him is a gorgeous, scantily clad showgirl.
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Ispred njega stoji predivna oskudno odjevena djevojka.
07:40
She looks at him and says,
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Ona ga pogleda i kaže,
07:42
"I'm here for super sex."
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"Ja sam ovdje za super seks."
07:45
"That's fine," says George, "I'll take the soup."
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"To je u redu," kaže George, "Ja ću uzeti juhu."
07:48
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:52
I came to realize,
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Shvatio sam
07:54
as a physician,
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da sam kao liječnik
07:56
that I was working toward a goal
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radio prema cilju
07:59
which was different from the goal of evolution --
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koji je drugačiji od cilja evolucije --
08:02
not necessarily contradictory, just different.
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ne nužno kontradiktorni, samo drugačiji.
08:05
I was trying to preserve the body.
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Ja sam pokušavao održati tijelo.
08:07
I wanted to keep us healthy.
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Htio sam da ostanemo zdravi.
08:09
I wanted to restore health from disease.
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Htio sam vratiti zdravlje kod bolesti.
08:12
I wanted us to live long and healthy lives.
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Želio sam da živimo duge i zdrave živote.
08:15
Evolution is all about passing on the genome
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Evolucija samo želi prenijeti genom
08:18
to the next generation,
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na slijedeću generaciju,
08:20
adapting and surviving
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adaptirajući se i preživljavajući
08:23
through generation after generation.
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iz generacije u generaciju.
08:25
From an evolutionary point of view,
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S evolucionarnog stajališta,
08:28
you and I are like the booster rockets
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vi i ja smo kao booster rakete
08:30
designed to send the genetic payload
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dizajnirani kako bi poslali genetički materijal
08:32
into the next level of orbit
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u slijedeći nivo orbite
08:34
and then drop off into the sea.
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i onda padnemo u more.
08:37
I think we would all understand the sentiment that Woody Allen expressed
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Mislim da bi svi mogli razumjeti razmišljanje Woody-a Allena
08:40
when he said, "I don't want to achieve immortality through my work.
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kada je rekao, "Ja ne želim postići besmrtnost kroz svoj rad.
08:44
I want to achieve it through not dying."
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Ja je želim postići tako da ne umrem."
08:46
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:49
Evolution does not necessarily
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Evolucija ne mora nužno
08:52
favor the longest-lived.
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preferirati najdugovječnijeg.
08:54
It doesn't necessarily favor the biggest
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Niti nužno mora preferirati najvećeg
08:56
or the strongest or the fastest,
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niti najjačeg niti najbržeg,
08:58
and not even the smartest.
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čak niti najpametnijeg.
09:00
Evolution favors
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Evolucija preferira
09:02
those creatures best adapted
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ona stvorenja koja su najbolje prilagođena
09:05
to their environment.
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svome okolišu.
09:07
That is the sole test
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To je jedini test
09:09
of survival and success.
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za preživljavanje i uspijeh.
09:11
At the bottom of the ocean,
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Na dnu oceana,
09:13
bacteria that are thermophilic
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termofilne bakterije
09:15
and can survive at the steam vent heat
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mogu preživjeti vrućinu parnog ventila
09:18
that would otherwise produce, if fish were there,
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koja bi inače proizvela, da su tamo ribe,
09:21
sous-vide cooked fish,
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sous-vide kuhanu ribu,
09:23
nevertheless, have managed
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bezobzira na to, oni su uspjeli
09:25
to make that a hospitable environment for them.
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to pretvoriti u, za njih, gostoljubiv okoliš.
09:30
So what does this mean,
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Što bi to značilo,
09:33
as we look back at what has happened in evolution,
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kada pogledamo nazad na događaje u evoluciji,
09:36
and as we think about the place again
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i kada ponovo pomislimo na mjesto
09:39
of humans in evolution,
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ljudi u evoluciji,
09:42
and particularly as we look ahead
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pogotovo kada gledamo u budućnost
09:45
to the next phase,
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na slijedeću fazu,
09:47
I would say
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ja bih rekao
09:49
that there are a number of possibilities.
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da postoje brojne mogućnosti.
09:52
The first is that we will not evolve.
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Prvo, da nećemo evoluirati.
09:57
We have reached
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Da smo dosegli
09:59
a kind of equipoise.
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vrstu ravnoteže.
10:01
And the reasoning behind that would be,
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Objašnjenje iza ovoga bi bilo,
10:03
first, we have, through medicine,
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prvo, da smo kroz medicinu,
10:06
managed to preserve a lot of genes
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uspjeli održati mnoge gene
10:08
that would otherwise be selected out
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koji bi inače bili odabrani za propast
10:10
and be removed from the population.
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i bili uklonjeni iz populacije.
10:12
And secondly, we as a species
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Drugo, mi smo kao vrsta
10:14
have so configured our environment
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promijenili naš okoliš tako
10:17
that we have managed to make it adapt to us
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da smo ga prilagodili prema sebi samima
10:20
as well as we adapt to it.
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kao što se mi prilagođavamo njemu.
10:23
And by the way, we immigrate and circulate
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Još uz to, mi imigriramo i cirkuliramo
10:25
and intermix so much
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i mješamo se toliko
10:27
that you can't any longer
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da se ne može više
10:29
have the isolation that is necessary
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uspostaviti izolacija koja je potrebna
10:31
for evolution to take place.
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da bi se desila evolucija.
10:34
A second possibility
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Druga mogućnost
10:36
is that there will be evolution of the traditional kind,
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je da će biti evolucija tradicionalne vrste,
10:39
natural, imposed by the forces of nature.
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prirodna, određena prirodnim silama.
10:44
And the argument here would be
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Argument za ovo bi bio
10:46
that the wheels of evolution grind slowly,
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da kotači evolucije se sporo okreću,
10:49
but they are inexorable.
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ali su neumoljivi.
10:51
And as far as isolation goes,
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Što se tiće izolacije,
10:53
when we as a species
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kada mi kao vrsta
10:55
do colonize distant planets,
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koloniziramo udaljene planete,
10:57
there will be the isolation and the environmental changes
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biti će izolacije i okolišnih promjena
11:00
that could produce evolution
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koji bi mogli proizvesti evoluciju
11:03
in the natural way.
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na prirodan način.
11:05
But there's a third possibility,
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Ali postoji i treća mogućnost,
11:07
an enticing, intriguing and frightening possibility.
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namamljiva, intrigantna i zastrašujuća mogućnost.
11:10
I call it neo-evolution --
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Zovem je neo-evolucija --
11:12
the new evolution
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nova evolucija
11:14
that is not simply natural,
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koja nije jednostavno prirodna,
11:16
but guided and chosen
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nego je vođena i izabrana
11:19
by us as individuals
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od nas kao pojedinaca
11:22
in the choices that we will make.
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putem odluka koje radimo.
11:24
Now how could this come about?
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Sada, kako bi moglo doći do ovoga?
11:27
How could it be possible that we would do this?
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Kako je uopće moguće da bi mi to radili?
11:30
Consider, first, the reality
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Uzmite u obzir realnost
11:33
that people today, in some cultures,
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da danas ljudi, u nekim kulturama,
11:36
are making choices about their offspring.
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odlučuju o svojemu potomstvu.
11:39
They're, in some cultures,
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U nekim kulturama,
11:41
choosing to have more males than females.
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odlučuju imati više muške nego ženske djece.
11:44
It's not necessarily good for the society,
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To nije nužno dobro za društvo,
11:46
but it's what the individual and the family are choosing.
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ali je to ono što individualac i obitelj biraju.
11:50
Think also,
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Zamislite isto tako,
11:52
if it were possible ever
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kada bi bilo moguće
11:56
for you to choose, not simply to choose the sex of your child,
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ne samo da jednostavno izaberete spol svojeg djeteta,
11:59
but for you in your body
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nego da i vi u vašem tijelu
12:02
to make the genetic adjustments
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možete raditi genetička podešavanja
12:05
that would cure or prevent diseases.
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koja bi izliječila ili prevenirala bolesti.
12:07
What if you could make the genetic changes
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Što da možete promjeniti gene tako
12:10
to eliminate diabetes or Alzheimer's
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da eliminirate šečernu bolest ili Alzheimer
12:13
or reduce the risk of cancer
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ili reducirate rizik za rak
12:15
or eliminate stroke?
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ili eliminirate moždani udar?
12:17
Wouldn't you want
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Da li bi htjeli
12:19
to make those changes
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napraviti te promjene
12:21
in your genes?
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u svojim genima?
12:23
If we look ahead,
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Ako pogledamo u budućnost,
12:25
these kind of changes
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ovakve će promjene
12:27
are going to be increasingly possible.
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biti sve više moguće.
12:32
The Human Genome Project
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Projekt ljudskog genoma
12:34
started in 1990,
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započet je 1990.,
12:36
and it took 13 years.
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i trajao je 13 godina.
12:38
It cost 2.7 billion dollars.
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Koštao je 2,7 milijardi dolara.
12:43
The year after it was finished in 2004,
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Godinu dana nakon završetka, u 2004.,
12:46
you could do the same job
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mogli bi napraviti isti posao
12:48
for 20 million dollars in three to four months.
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za 20 milijuna dolara u tri do četiri mjeseca.
12:51
Today, you can have a complete sequence
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Danas, možemo imati kompletnu sekvencu
12:54
of the three billion base pairs in the human genome
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od tri milijardi parova baza ljudskog genoma
12:56
at a cost of about 20,000 dollars
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za cijenu od oko 20.000 dolara
12:59
and in the space of about a week.
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u vremenskom razdoblju od oko jednog tjedna.
13:01
It won't be very long
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Uskoro će biti
13:03
before the reality will be
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realnost
13:05
the 1,000-dollar human genome,
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ljudski genom za 1.000 dolara,
13:07
and it will be increasingly available for everyone.
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i postati će više dostupan svima.
13:11
Just a week ago,
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Prije samo tjedan dana,
13:13
the National Academy of Engineering
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nacionalna akademija inžinjerstva
13:15
awarded its Draper Prize
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je podjelila nagradu Draper
13:17
to Francis Arnold and Willem Stemmer,
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Francis-u Arnold-u i Willem-u Stemmer-u,
13:19
two scientists who independently developed techniques
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dvjema znanstvenicima koji su samostalno razvili tehnike
13:23
to encourage the natural process of evolution to work faster
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koje potiču prirodni proces evolucije da radi brže
13:27
and to lead to desirable proteins
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i da pritom dovodi to stvaranja poželjnih proteina
13:29
in a more efficient way --
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na više efikasan način --
13:31
what Frances Arnold calls "directed evolution."
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ovo Frances Arnold naziva "direktna evolucija."
13:35
A couple of years ago, the Lasker Prize
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Prije par godina, nagrada Lasker
13:38
was awarded to the scientist Shinya Yamanaka
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je bila dodjeljena znanstveniku Shinya-u Yamanaka-u
13:41
for his research
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za njegov istaživački rad
13:43
in which he took an adult skin cell,
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u kojem je uzeo zrelu kožnu stanicu,
13:45
a fibroblast,
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fibroblast,
13:47
and by manipulating just four genes,
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i putem manipulacije samo četiri gena,
13:50
he induced that cell
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inducirao stanicu
13:52
to revert to a pluripotential stem cell --
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da se vrati u pluripotentnu matičnu stanicu --
13:56
a cell potentially capable
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stanica koja ima potencijal
13:59
of becoming any cell in your body.
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postati bilo koja stanica u vašem tijelu.
14:02
These changes are coming.
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Ove promjene dolaze.
14:04
The same technology
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Ista tehnologija
14:06
that has produced the human insulin in bacteria
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koja je proizvela ljudski inzulin u bakteriji
14:08
can make viruses
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može proizvesti viruse
14:10
that will not only protect you against themselves,
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koje će ne samo štititi vas od njih samih,
14:13
but induce immunity against other viruses.
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već će i inducirati imunost protiv drugih virusa.
14:15
Believe it or not,
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Vjerovali ili ne,
14:17
there's an experimental trial going on
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provodi se eksperimentalno istraživanje
14:19
with vaccine against influenza
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sa cjepivom protiv gripe
14:22
that has been grown in the cells of a tobacco plant.
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koji je proizveden iz stanica biljke duhana.
14:26
Can you imagine something good coming out of tobacco?
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Možete li zamisliti da bi nešto dobro moglo nastati iz duhana?
14:30
These are all reality today,
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Ovo je sve danas realnost,
14:33
and [in] the future, will be evermore possible.
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i u budućnosti biti će sve više toga moguće.
14:36
Imagine then
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Zamislite onda
14:38
just two other little changes.
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samo još dvije druge male promjene.
14:41
You can change the cells in your body,
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Možete mjenjati stanice u svom tijelu,
14:43
but what if you could change the cells in your offspring?
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ali što bi bilo da možete mjenjati stanice vaših potomaka?
14:47
What if you could change the sperm and the ova,
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Da možete promjeniti spermu i jajnu stanicu,
14:49
or change the newly fertilized egg,
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ili promjeniti novo fertiliziranu jajnu stanicu,
14:52
and give your offspring a better chance
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i dati vašim potomcima bolju šansu
14:54
at a healthier life --
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za zdraviji život --
14:56
eliminate the diabetes, eliminate the hemophilia,
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eliminirati šećernu bolest, eliminirati hemofiliju,
14:58
reduce the risk of cancer?
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smanjiti rizik za rak?
15:00
Who doesn't want healthier children?
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Tko ne želi imati zdraviju djecu?
15:03
And then, that same analytic technology,
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I onda, ta ista analitička tehnologija,
15:06
that same engine of science
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taj isti motor znanosti
15:08
that can produce
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koji može proizvesti
15:10
the changes to prevent disease,
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promjene za prevenciju bolesti,
15:12
will also enable us
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će isto tako nam omogućiti
15:15
to adopt super-attributes,
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prisvajanje super-atributa,
15:17
hyper-capacities --
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hiper-mogućnosti --
15:19
that better memory.
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onu bolju memoriju.
15:21
Why not have the quick wit
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Zašto ne imati brzu pamet
15:23
of a Ken Jennings,
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kao Ken Jennings,
15:25
especially if you can augment it
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pogotovo ako je možete povećati
15:27
with the next generation of the Watson machine?
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sa slijedećom generacijom Watsonova stroja?
15:30
Why not have the quick twitch muscle
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Zašto ne bi imali brzo reagirajuće mišiće
15:33
that will enable you to run faster and longer?
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koji vam omogućuju da trčite brže i duže?
15:36
Why not live longer?
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Zašto ne bi živjeli duže?
15:40
These will be irresistible.
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Ove mogućnosti će biti neodoljive.
15:42
And when we are at a position
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A mi smo u poziciji
15:45
where we can pass it on to the next generation,
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da ih možemo prenijeti na slijedeću generaciju,
15:47
and we can adopt the attributes we want,
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i možemo prisvojiti atribute koje želimo,
15:50
we will have converted
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pretvorili bi
15:53
old-style evolution
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staromodnu evoluciju
15:55
into neo-evolution.
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u neo-evoluciju.
15:57
We'll take a process
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Uzeti ćemo proces
15:59
that normally might require 100,000 years,
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koji normalno traje možda nekih 100.000 godina,
16:01
and we can compress it down to a thousand years --
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i možemo ga suzbiti na tisuću godina --
16:04
and maybe even in the next 100 years.
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ili možda čak u slijedećih 100 godina.
16:07
These are choices
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Ovo su odluke
16:09
that your grandchildren,
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koje će vaši unuci,
16:11
or their grandchildren,
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ili njihovi unuci,
16:13
are going to have before them.
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imati pred sobom.
16:16
Will we use these choices
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Hoćemo li koristiti ove odluke
16:19
to make a society that is better,
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kako bi stvorili bolje društvo,
16:22
that is more successful, that is kinder?
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koje je uspješnije, koje je više suosjećajno?
16:25
Or, will we selectively choose different attributes
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Ili ćemo selektivno birati različte atribute
16:28
that we want for some of us
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koje želimo za samo neke od nas
16:30
and not for others of us?
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a ne za ostale?
16:32
Will we make a society
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Hoćemo li stvoriti društvo
16:35
that is more boring and more uniform,
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koje je dosadno i više uniformirano,
16:38
or more robust and more versatile?
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ili više robusno i svestrano?
16:41
These are the kinds of questions
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Ovo su vrste pitanja
16:43
that we will have to face.
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s kojima ćemo se suočiti.
16:45
And most profoundly of all,
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I najtemeljitije od svega,
16:47
will we ever be able to develop the wisdom,
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da li ćemo ikada moći razviti mudrost,
16:50
and to inherit the wisdom,
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i naslijediti mudrost,
16:52
that we'll need to make these choices wisely?
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koja će nam trebati kako bi ove odluke mudro donijeli?
16:55
For better or worse,
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Za bolje ili lošije,
16:57
and sooner than you may think,
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i prije nego što mislite,
16:59
these choices will be up to us.
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ove će odluke biti na nama.
17:02
Thank you.
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Hvala.
17:04
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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