Harvey Fineberg: Are we ready for neo-evolution?

75,040 views ・ 2011-04-26

TED


請雙擊下方英文字幕播放視頻。

譯者: Jefferson Wang 審譯者: Ana Choi
00:15
How would you like to be better than you are?
0
15260
4000
你想要自己比現在的你更好嗎?
00:19
Suppose I said
1
19260
2000
如果我說,
00:21
that, with just a few changes in your genes,
2
21260
2000
只需要在你的基因中做幾個改變,
00:23
you could get a better memory --
3
23260
2000
你就可以擁有更好的記憶力 --
00:25
more precise,
4
25260
2000
更精準、
00:27
more accurate and quicker.
5
27260
3000
更精確、更迅速。
00:30
Or maybe you'd like to be more fit, stronger,
6
30260
3000
或者你想要更苗條、更強壯、
00:33
with more stamina.
7
33260
2000
更有耐力。
00:35
Would you like to be more attractive and self-confident?
8
35260
4000
你想變的更具吸引力、更有自信嗎?
00:39
How about living longer with good health?
9
39260
3000
活的更久、更健康呢?
00:42
Or perhaps you're one of those
10
42260
2000
又或者你是屬於那些
00:44
who's always yearned for more creativity.
11
44260
3000
一直嚮往自己能更有創造力的人。
00:47
Which one would you like the most?
12
47260
3000
你最想要哪一種呢?
00:51
Which would you like, if you could have just one?
13
51260
2000
如果你只能選一種,你會想要哪一種?
00:53
(Audience Member: Creativity.)
14
53260
2000
(聽眾: 創造力。)
00:55
Creativity.
15
55260
2000
創造力。
00:57
How many people would choose creativity?
16
57260
2000
多少人會選擇創造力呢?
00:59
Raise your hands. Let me see.
17
59260
2000
舉起你的手讓我看看。
01:01
A few. Probably about as many as there are creative people here.
18
61260
3000
有一些人。 大概就跟在坐有創造力的人一樣多吧。
01:04
(Laughter) That's very good.
19
64260
2000
很好。
01:06
How many would opt for memory?
20
66260
3000
有多少人會選擇記憶力呢?
01:09
Quite a few more.
21
69260
2000
比剛才多了一些人。
01:11
How about fitness?
22
71260
2000
那健康呢?
01:13
A few less.
23
73260
2000
人少了一些。
01:15
What about longevity?
24
75260
2000
那更長壽呢?
01:17
Ah, the majority. That makes me feel very good as a doctor.
25
77260
3000
喔,大多數的人。 這讓身為醫師的我覺得很好。
01:21
If you could have any one of these,
26
81260
3000
如果你能擁有任何一種,
01:24
it would be a very different world.
27
84260
2000
這個世界都會非常不一樣。
01:26
Is it just imaginary?
28
86260
2000
這只是幻想嗎?
01:28
Or, is it, perhaps, possible?
29
88260
3000
還是,這確實有可能呢?
01:31
Evolution has been a perennial topic
30
91260
3000
進化論在TED研討會上
01:34
here at the TED Conference,
31
94260
3000
一直是個常被討論的主題,
01:37
but I want to give you today
32
97260
2000
但是我今天是要以一個醫師的觀點
01:39
one doctor's take on the subject.
33
99260
2000
來討論這個主題。
01:41
The great 20th-century geneticist,
34
101260
2000
20世紀一名偉大的遺傳學家
01:43
T.G. Dobzhansky,
35
103260
2000
费奥多西·多布然斯基,
01:45
who was also a communicant
36
105260
2000
他同時是俄國東正教
01:47
in the Russian Orthodox Church,
37
107260
2000
的一名傳信者,
01:49
once wrote an essay that he titled
38
109260
3000
他曾寫了一篇文章,
01:52
"Nothing in Biology Makes Sense
39
112260
3000
標題是〈生物學中沒有什麼是有道理的 --
01:55
Except in the Light of Evolution."
40
115260
3000
除了按照進化論的那些〉。
01:58
Now if you are one of those
41
118260
2000
現在,如果你是那些
02:00
who does not accept the evidence for biological evolution,
42
120260
3000
不接受生物進化論的證據的人,
02:03
this would be a very good time to turn off your hearing aid,
43
123260
3000
現在是關掉你的助聽器的好時機,
02:06
take out your personal communications device --
44
126260
2000
拿出你的個人通訊設備 --
02:08
I give you permission --
45
128260
2000
我准許你們這樣做 --
02:10
and perhaps take another look at Kathryn Schultz's book on being wrong,
46
130260
3000
或許你該再看一下凱瑟琳• 舒爾茨寫有關犯錯的那本書,
02:13
because nothing in the rest of this talk
47
133260
2000
因為接下來要講的東西
02:15
is going to make any sense whatsoever to you.
48
135260
3000
對你來說都是沒有任何意義的。
02:18
(Laughter)
49
138260
2000
(笑聲)
02:20
But if you do accept
50
140260
2000
但是如果你是
02:22
biological evolution,
51
142260
3000
接受生物進化論的,
02:25
consider this:
52
145260
2000
仔細想想:
02:27
is it just about the past,
53
147260
2000
它只跟過去有關嗎,
02:29
or is it about the future?
54
149260
2000
還是它也跟未來有關?
02:31
Does it apply to others,
55
151260
2000
它是適用於他人嗎,
02:33
or does it apply to us?
56
153260
3000
還是也適用於我們?
02:36
This is another look at the tree of life.
57
156260
3000
這是生命之樹,生物的樹狀圖。
02:39
In this picture,
58
159260
2000
在這分支圖當中可以看到,
02:41
I've put a bush with a center branching out in all directions,
59
161260
3000
我把它由一個中心點往各個方向分支出去,
02:44
because if you look at the edges
60
164260
2000
因為如果你看到這個生命之樹
02:46
of the tree of life,
61
166260
2000
各個分支的末端,
02:48
every existing species
62
168260
2000
以進化論的角度來說
02:50
at the tips of those branches
63
170260
2000
每個分支末端的物種
02:52
has succeeded in evolutionary terms:
64
172260
2000
都是成功的案例,因為:
02:54
it has survived;
65
174260
2000
它生存了下來、
02:56
it has demonstrated a fitness
66
176260
2000
它展現了其適合在它生長環境中
02:58
to its environment.
67
178260
2000
生存的條件。
03:00
The human part of this branch,
68
180260
3000
在這個分支的末端
03:03
way out on one end,
69
183260
3000
有關人類的部份,
03:06
is, of course, the one that we are most interested in.
70
186260
4000
理所當然是我們最關心的部份。
03:10
We branch off of a common ancestor
71
190260
2000
在6至8百萬年前,
03:12
to modern chimpanzees
72
192260
2000
我們從一個較低層級的祖先
03:14
about six or eight million years ago.
73
194260
3000
分支出來成了現代的黑猩猩。
03:17
In the interval,
74
197260
2000
在這期間,
03:19
there have been perhaps 20 or 25
75
199260
2000
大概出現過20至25種
03:21
different species of hominids.
76
201260
3000
不同形式的人類祖先。
03:24
Some have come and gone.
77
204260
3000
其中有一些已經不存在。
03:27
We have been here for about 130,000 years.
78
207260
4000
而我們已經生存了130,000年。
03:31
It may seem like we're quite remote
79
211260
2000
我們或許看似跟生命之樹中
03:33
from other parts of this tree of life,
80
213260
3000
其他的分支隔了很遠,
03:36
but actually, for the most part,
81
216260
3000
但實際情形是,大致上來說,
03:39
the basic machinery of our cells
82
219260
3000
我們的細胞機構
03:42
is pretty much the same.
83
222260
2000
幾乎是一模一樣的。
03:44
Do you realize that we can take advantage
84
224260
3000
你知不知道我們可以藉由
03:47
and commandeer the machinery of a common bacterium
85
227260
3000
一種低等細菌體的細胞機構
03:50
to produce the protein of human insulin
86
230260
3000
來製造人類胰島素的一種蛋白質
03:53
used to treat diabetics?
87
233260
2000
來治療糖尿病嗎?
03:55
This is not like human insulin;
88
235260
2000
它不是跟人類的胰島素類似而已,
03:57
this is the same protein
89
237260
2000
它是跟你胰臟分泌出來的
03:59
that is chemically indistinguishable
90
239260
2000
胰島素裡面的一種蛋白質
04:01
from what comes out of your pancreas.
91
241260
4000
完全一樣。
04:06
And speaking of bacteria,
92
246260
2000
講到細菌,
04:08
do you realize that each of us carries in our gut
93
248260
3000
你知道我們腸子裡的細菌數量
04:11
more bacteria
94
251260
2000
比我們身體所有細胞的數量
04:13
than there are cells in the rest of our body?
95
253260
2000
還要多嗎?
04:15
Maybe 10 times more.
96
255260
2000
大概有10倍之多。
04:17
I mean think of it,
97
257260
2000
我說,想想看,
04:19
when Antonio Damasio asks about your self-image,
98
259260
3000
當安東尼奧• 達馬斯奧在問你對於自我的形象的時候,
04:22
do you think about the bacteria?
99
262260
3000
你有想到這些細菌嗎?
04:26
Our gut is a wonderfully hospitable environment
100
266260
2000
我們的腸子是一個非常適合
04:28
for those bacteria.
101
268260
2000
這些細菌生長的環境。
04:30
It's warm, it's dark, it's moist,
102
270260
2000
它很溫暖、很陰暗、很潮濕,
04:32
it's very cozy.
103
272260
2000
非常的舒適。
04:34
And you're going to provide all the nutrition that they could possibly want
104
274260
2000
而且那些細菌完全不需要任何工夫,
04:36
with no effort on their part.
105
276260
2000
你就會為它們提供任何需要的營養。
04:38
It's really like an Easy Street for bacteria,
106
278260
3000
這簡直是細菌的天堂,
04:41
with the occasional interruption
107
281260
3000
除了偶爾會被
04:44
of the unintended forced rush to the exit.
108
284260
2000
強迫性的推向出口。
04:46
But otherwise,
109
286260
3000
除此之外,
04:49
you are a wonderful environment for those bacteria,
110
289260
3000
你就是這些細菌最完美的生長環境,
04:52
just as they are essential to your life.
111
292260
3000
而這些細菌對你也一樣重要。
04:55
They help in the digestion of essential nutrients,
112
295260
3000
它們幫助消化分解一些必要的營養素。
04:58
and they protect you against certain diseases.
113
298260
3000
它們也保護你不受某些疾病的侵襲。
05:02
But what will come in the future?
114
302260
2000
但是未來會是怎麼樣呢?
05:04
Are we at some kind of evolutionary equipoise
115
304260
3000
身為一個物種,我們的演進
05:07
as a species?
116
307260
2000
已經達到一種平衡了嗎?
05:09
Or, are we destined
117
309260
2000
又或者,我們就是註定
05:11
to become something different --
118
311260
2000
要變得不一樣 --
05:13
something, perhaps, even better adapted
119
313260
3000
要變得更加能夠適應
05:16
to the environment?
120
316260
2000
外在的環境?
05:18
Now let's take a step back in time
121
318260
3000
現在我們回朔到140億年前,
05:21
to the Big Bang, 14 billion years ago --
122
321260
3000
宇宙大爆炸 --
05:24
the Earth, the solar system,
123
324260
2000
45億年前,
05:26
about four and a half billion years --
124
326260
3000
地球與太陽系的形成 --
05:29
the first signs of proto-life,
125
329260
2000
30~40億年前,
05:31
maybe three to four billion years ago on Earth --
126
331260
2000
第一次出現原始生命的跡象 --
05:33
the first multi-celled organisms,
127
333260
3000
大概8~10億年前,
05:36
perhaps as much
128
336260
2000
第一個多細胞生物
05:38
as 800 or a billion years ago --
129
338260
3000
誕生了 --
05:41
and then the human species,
130
341260
2000
最後,在這130,000年來
05:43
finally emerging
131
343260
2000
人類這個物種
05:45
in the last 130,000 years.
132
345260
3000
終於出現了。
05:48
In this vast unfinished symphony of the universe,
133
348260
3000
宇宙就像首未完成的交響樂,
05:51
life on Earth is like a brief measure;
134
351260
3000
地球上的生命就像其中幾個小節;
05:54
the animal kingdom,
135
354260
2000
動物王國,
05:56
like a single measure;
136
356260
3000
就像其中一個小節;
05:59
and human life,
137
359260
2000
而人類,
06:01
a small grace note.
138
361260
2000
就像其中一個音符而已。
06:03
That was us.
139
363260
3000
這就是我們。
06:06
That also constitutes the entertainment portion of this talk,
140
366260
2000
這也是這個研討會中較有娛樂性的部分,
06:08
so I hope you enjoyed it.
141
368260
2000
希望你們有感受到。
06:10
(Laughter)
142
370260
2000
(笑聲)
06:12
Now when I was a freshman in college,
143
372260
3000
我在大學一年級的時候
06:15
I took my first biology class.
144
375260
2000
上了我人生中第一堂生物課。
06:17
I was fascinated
145
377260
2000
生物學的高雅及美麗
06:19
by the elegance and beauty of biology.
146
379260
3000
深深的吸引了我。
06:22
I became enamored of the power of evolution,
147
382260
3000
我變得非常地著迷於進化的力量,
06:25
and I realized something very fundamental:
148
385260
2000
並且我了解到了一些很基本的事情:
06:27
in most of the existence of life
149
387260
2000
在大部分現行存在的單細胞有機體
06:29
in single-celled organisms,
150
389260
2000
的生命當中,
06:31
each cell simply divides,
151
391260
2000
每個細胞就這樣簡單的分裂,
06:33
and all of the genetic energy of that cell
152
393260
3000
然後該細胞中所有的基因能量
06:36
is carried on in both daughter cells.
153
396260
3000
就被帶到了它的子細胞。
06:39
But at the time multi-celled organisms come online,
154
399260
4000
但是到了多細胞有機體的出現之後
06:43
things start to change.
155
403260
2000
就變的不一樣了。
06:45
Sexual reproduction enters the picture.
156
405260
3000
有性生殖開始出現。
06:48
And very importantly,
157
408260
2000
而且非常重要的是,
06:50
with the introduction of sexual reproduction
158
410260
3000
透過可以將基因傳遞給後代的
06:53
that passes on the genome,
159
413260
2000
有性生殖,
06:55
the rest of the body
160
415260
2000
身體的其他部位
06:57
becomes expendable.
161
417260
2000
變得可以被消耗的。
06:59
In fact, you could say
162
419260
3000
事實上,你可以說
07:02
that the inevitability of the death of our bodies
163
422260
3000
在進化的時間線上,
07:05
enters in evolutionary time
164
425260
2000
我們身體最終會凋零死亡的必然性
07:07
at the same moment
165
427260
2000
跟有性生殖的開始
07:09
as sexual reproduction.
166
429260
2000
是同時出現的。
07:11
Now I have to confess,
167
431260
2000
現在我必須說,
07:13
when I was a college undergraduate,
168
433260
2000
當我還是大學生的時候,
07:15
I thought, okay, sex/death, sex/death, death for sex --
169
435260
4000
我想,好吧,性/死亡,性/死亡,為了性而死亡--
07:19
it seemed pretty reasonable at the time,
170
439260
3000
在當時似乎是非常有道理的,
07:22
but with each passing year,
171
442260
2000
但一年一年過去,
07:24
I've come to have increasing doubts.
172
444260
2000
我開始有愈來愈多的懷疑。
07:26
I've come to understand the sentiments of George Burns,
173
446260
3000
我開始理解喬治• 伯恩斯的思想,
07:29
who was performing still in Las Vegas
174
449260
2000
他當時還在拉斯維加斯表演,
07:31
well into his 90s.
175
451260
2000
直到他90多歲。
07:33
And one night, there's a knock at his hotel room door.
176
453260
2000
一天晚上,有人敲他下榻旅館的門。
07:35
He answers the door.
177
455260
2000
他應了門。
07:37
Standing before him is a gorgeous, scantily clad showgirl.
178
457260
3000
站在門口的是個非常美麗又穿的很少的舞女。
07:40
She looks at him and says,
179
460260
2000
他看著他說:
07:42
"I'm here for super sex."
180
462260
3000
「我是來跟你消魂的做愛的。 」
07:45
"That's fine," says George, "I'll take the soup."
181
465260
3000
「好吧」,喬治說,「我就喝湯吧」" ("super sex超級性交" 發音似 "soup or sex湯或是性交")
07:48
(Laughter)
182
468260
4000
(笑聲)
07:52
I came to realize,
183
472260
2000
我開始意識到
07:54
as a physician,
184
474260
2000
作為一個醫師,
07:56
that I was working toward a goal
185
476260
3000
一直以來我努力的目標與
07:59
which was different from the goal of evolution --
186
479260
3000
進化論的目標是不一樣的--
08:02
not necessarily contradictory, just different.
187
482260
3000
不見得互相違背,但就是不同。
08:05
I was trying to preserve the body.
188
485260
2000
我一直嘗試去保存身體。
08:07
I wanted to keep us healthy.
189
487260
2000
我想要我們保持健康。
08:09
I wanted to restore health from disease.
190
489260
3000
我想要使我們從疾病中恢復健康。
08:12
I wanted us to live long and healthy lives.
191
492260
3000
我想要我們活的又長久又健康。
08:15
Evolution is all about passing on the genome
192
495260
3000
而進化全是為了把基因
08:18
to the next generation,
193
498260
2000
傳遞給下一代,
08:20
adapting and surviving
194
500260
3000
一代接著一代
08:23
through generation after generation.
195
503260
2000
適應並存活下去。
08:25
From an evolutionary point of view,
196
505260
3000
從進化的觀點來看,
08:28
you and I are like the booster rockets
197
508260
2000
我們就像是帶有推進器的火箭,
08:30
designed to send the genetic payload
198
510260
2000
被設計來把"基因"載送到
08:32
into the next level of orbit
199
512260
2000
下一層的軌道
08:34
and then drop off into the sea.
200
514260
3000
然後落下掉進海裡。
08:37
I think we would all understand the sentiment that Woody Allen expressed
201
517260
3000
我想我們都應該可以了解伍迪•艾倫所說的,
08:40
when he said, "I don't want to achieve immortality through my work.
202
520260
4000
他說:「 我不想透過我的成就而不朽。」
08:44
I want to achieve it through not dying."
203
524260
2000
「 我想透過不死而不朽。」
08:46
(Laughter)
204
526260
3000
(笑聲)
08:49
Evolution does not necessarily
205
529260
3000
進化,不一定
08:52
favor the longest-lived.
206
532260
2000
是偏向活得最久的。
08:54
It doesn't necessarily favor the biggest
207
534260
2000
他不一定偏向最大的、
08:56
or the strongest or the fastest,
208
536260
2000
最強壯的或是最快速的,
08:58
and not even the smartest.
209
538260
2000
甚至也不偏向最聰明的。
09:00
Evolution favors
210
540260
2000
進化,偏向
09:02
those creatures best adapted
211
542260
3000
那些最能夠適應
09:05
to their environment.
212
545260
2000
其環境的生物。
09:07
That is the sole test
213
547260
2000
它完全是考驗著
09:09
of survival and success.
214
549260
2000
成功存活下去的能力。
09:11
At the bottom of the ocean,
215
551260
2000
在海底,
09:13
bacteria that are thermophilic
216
553260
2000
耐高溫的細菌
09:15
and can survive at the steam vent heat
217
555260
3000
可以存活在熱蒸汽的環境;
09:18
that would otherwise produce, if fish were there,
218
558260
3000
如果魚在那種環境,
09:21
sous-vide cooked fish,
219
561260
2000
就會慢慢的被煮熟 (sous-vide法式真空低溫(約60度C)煮法);
09:23
nevertheless, have managed
220
563260
2000
然而,它們卻可以
09:25
to make that a hospitable environment for them.
221
565260
5000
適應並接受那樣的環境。
09:30
So what does this mean,
222
570260
3000
這說明了什麼呢?
09:33
as we look back at what has happened in evolution,
223
573260
3000
當我們回頭看看進化的過程發生了什麼事情,
09:36
and as we think about the place again
224
576260
3000
當我們再次想想人類在進化中
09:39
of humans in evolution,
225
579260
3000
扮演的角色,
09:42
and particularly as we look ahead
226
582260
3000
尤其是向前看到
09:45
to the next phase,
227
585260
2000
下一個階段,
09:47
I would say
228
587260
2000
我會跟你說
09:49
that there are a number of possibilities.
229
589260
3000
有許多的可能性。
09:52
The first is that we will not evolve.
230
592260
5000
第一種是我們停止進化。
09:57
We have reached
231
597260
2000
我們已經達到
09:59
a kind of equipoise.
232
599260
2000
一種平衡。
10:01
And the reasoning behind that would be,
233
601260
2000
這背後的原因是,
10:03
first, we have, through medicine,
234
603260
3000
首先,我們透過醫學
10:06
managed to preserve a lot of genes
235
606260
2000
保存下來很多本來
10:08
that would otherwise be selected out
236
608260
2000
會被淘汰、從人口中消失
10:10
and be removed from the population.
237
610260
2000
的那些基因。
10:12
And secondly, we as a species
238
612260
2000
再者,我們是一個能夠
10:14
have so configured our environment
239
614260
3000
配置環境的物種,
10:17
that we have managed to make it adapt to us
240
617260
3000
就跟我們適應環境一樣,
10:20
as well as we adapt to it.
241
620260
3000
我們讓環境來適應我們。
10:23
And by the way, we immigrate and circulate
242
623260
2000
另外,我們因為大量的
10:25
and intermix so much
243
625260
2000
移民、流通以及混合,
10:27
that you can't any longer
244
627260
2000
我們已經不是相互隔離的,
10:29
have the isolation that is necessary
245
629260
2000
而這又正是進化發生
10:31
for evolution to take place.
246
631260
3000
的必要條件。
10:34
A second possibility
247
634260
2000
第二種可能
10:36
is that there will be evolution of the traditional kind,
248
636260
3000
就是傳統的進化方式,
10:39
natural, imposed by the forces of nature.
249
639260
5000
自然的、由自然的力量推進的。
10:44
And the argument here would be
250
644260
2000
這個可能性的論點在於
10:46
that the wheels of evolution grind slowly,
251
646260
3000
進化雖然很緩慢,
10:49
but they are inexorable.
252
649260
2000
但是是無法被阻擋或改變的。
10:51
And as far as isolation goes,
253
651260
2000
就隔離性來說,
10:53
when we as a species
254
653260
2000
身為一個物種,當我們殖民到
10:55
do colonize distant planets,
255
655260
2000
其他遙遠的星球時,
10:57
there will be the isolation and the environmental changes
256
657260
3000
就會有環境的變化並有其隔離性,
11:00
that could produce evolution
257
660260
3000
一種自然進化
11:03
in the natural way.
258
663260
2000
必要的隔離性。
11:05
But there's a third possibility,
259
665260
2000
但是有第三種可能性,
11:07
an enticing, intriguing and frightening possibility.
260
667260
3000
一種吸引人、引人入勝卻也令人害怕的可能性。
11:10
I call it neo-evolution --
261
670260
2000
我把它稱作新進化論--
11:12
the new evolution
262
672260
2000
這種新的進化論
11:14
that is not simply natural,
263
674260
2000
不只是單純自然的發展,
11:16
but guided and chosen
264
676260
3000
還會因為我們,做為單一個體,
11:19
by us as individuals
265
679260
3000
所做的一些決定
11:22
in the choices that we will make.
266
682260
2000
而被引導、發展的。
11:24
Now how could this come about?
267
684260
3000
要怎麼讓這個成真呢?
11:27
How could it be possible that we would do this?
268
687260
3000
如何能做到這樣呢?
11:30
Consider, first, the reality
269
690260
3000
第一個考量的是
11:33
that people today, in some cultures,
270
693260
3000
現在,有一其他些文化的人
11:36
are making choices about their offspring.
271
696260
3000
對他們的後代做了一些選擇。
11:39
They're, in some cultures,
272
699260
2000
在一些文化中,
11:41
choosing to have more males than females.
273
701260
3000
他們選擇生男性較多於生女性。
11:44
It's not necessarily good for the society,
274
704260
2000
這樣對社會不見得是好的,
11:46
but it's what the individual and the family are choosing.
275
706260
4000
但卻是個體與家庭的選擇。
11:50
Think also,
276
710260
2000
再想想,
11:52
if it were possible ever
277
712260
4000
如果能夠選擇
11:56
for you to choose, not simply to choose the sex of your child,
278
716260
3000
不僅是選擇小孩的性別,
11:59
but for you in your body
279
719260
3000
還可以選擇在你自己身體中
12:02
to make the genetic adjustments
280
722260
3000
對那些基因進行一些的調整,
12:05
that would cure or prevent diseases.
281
725260
2000
治癒疾病或是預防一些疾病的發生。
12:07
What if you could make the genetic changes
282
727260
3000
如果可以改變基因
12:10
to eliminate diabetes or Alzheimer's
283
730260
3000
來杜絕糖尿病或是阿茲海默症(老人癡呆)
12:13
or reduce the risk of cancer
284
733260
2000
或是降低罹患癌症的風險
12:15
or eliminate stroke?
285
735260
2000
或是杜絕中風的發生呢?
12:17
Wouldn't you want
286
737260
2000
難道你不會想要
12:19
to make those changes
287
739260
2000
對你的基因
12:21
in your genes?
288
741260
2000
做那些改變嗎?
12:23
If we look ahead,
289
743260
2000
如果我們向前看,
12:25
these kind of changes
290
745260
2000
這些改變
12:27
are going to be increasingly possible.
291
747260
5000
是愈來愈有可能達到的。
12:32
The Human Genome Project
292
752260
2000
人類基因組計畫
12:34
started in 1990,
293
754260
2000
1990年就開始了,
12:36
and it took 13 years.
294
756260
2000
它花了13年的時間。
12:38
It cost 2.7 billion dollars.
295
758260
5000
花了超過27億美元。
12:43
The year after it was finished in 2004,
296
763260
3000
在2004年,該計畫結束一年後
12:46
you could do the same job
297
766260
2000
你只需要花2000萬美元及3~4個月的時間
12:48
for 20 million dollars in three to four months.
298
768260
3000
便可以做出一樣的成果。
12:51
Today, you can have a complete sequence
299
771260
3000
今天,你只需要花費大約20000美元
12:54
of the three billion base pairs in the human genome
300
774260
2000
以及大概一個禮拜的時間
12:56
at a cost of about 20,000 dollars
301
776260
3000
就可以得到完整的基因序列
12:59
and in the space of about a week.
302
779260
2000
包含了人體30億個鹼基對的基因序列。
13:01
It won't be very long
303
781260
2000
再過不了多久
13:03
before the reality will be
304
783260
2000
應該就可以以1000美元
13:05
the 1,000-dollar human genome,
305
785260
2000
得到你的基因序列,
13:07
and it will be increasingly available for everyone.
306
787260
3000
並且會愈來愈普及大眾。
13:11
Just a week ago,
307
791260
2000
就在一個禮拜前,
13:13
the National Academy of Engineering
308
793260
2000
美國工程學院
13:15
awarded its Draper Prize
309
795260
2000
頒發了它的查爾斯•斯塔克•德雷珀獎獎
13:17
to Francis Arnold and Willem Stemmer,
310
797260
2000
給弗朗西斯•阿諾以及威廉•史丹摩,
13:19
two scientists who independently developed techniques
311
799260
4000
兩位獨立發展出
13:23
to encourage the natural process of evolution to work faster
312
803260
4000
使自然進化更加快速
13:27
and to lead to desirable proteins
313
807260
2000
並很有效率的
13:29
in a more efficient way --
314
809260
2000
產生我們所想要的蛋白質--
13:31
what Frances Arnold calls "directed evolution."
315
811260
4000
弗朗西斯•阿諾稱之為"引導進化"。
13:35
A couple of years ago, the Lasker Prize
316
815260
3000
幾年前拉斯克奖
13:38
was awarded to the scientist Shinya Yamanaka
317
818260
3000
被頒發給科學家山中伸彌的研究,
13:41
for his research
318
821260
2000
在其研究中
13:43
in which he took an adult skin cell,
319
823260
2000
它取出了一個成人的細胞,
13:45
a fibroblast,
320
825260
2000
一個神經膠原母細胞,
13:47
and by manipulating just four genes,
321
827260
3000
透過只改變了四個基因
13:50
he induced that cell
322
830260
2000
他使這個細胞
13:52
to revert to a pluripotential stem cell --
323
832260
4000
還原到原始多能幹細胞--
13:56
a cell potentially capable
324
836260
3000
一個可以長成
13:59
of becoming any cell in your body.
325
839260
3000
你身體中任何一種細胞的細胞。
14:02
These changes are coming.
326
842260
2000
這些改變就要來臨。
14:04
The same technology
327
844260
2000
使用讓細菌製造胰島素
14:06
that has produced the human insulin in bacteria
328
846260
2000
一樣的技術就能
14:08
can make viruses
329
848260
2000
製造出病毒,
14:10
that will not only protect you against themselves,
330
850260
3000
一種不只讓你能夠抵抗它們,
14:13
but induce immunity against other viruses.
331
853260
2000
甚至讓你對其他的病毒也免疫的病毒。
14:15
Believe it or not,
332
855260
2000
你是否相信,
14:17
there's an experimental trial going on
333
857260
2000
有個實驗正在研究
14:19
with vaccine against influenza
334
859260
3000
由菸草植物細胞培育出來的
14:22
that has been grown in the cells of a tobacco plant.
335
862260
4000
一種流行性感冒的疫苗。
14:26
Can you imagine something good coming out of tobacco?
336
866260
4000
你可以想像菸草也能提供有益的東西嗎?
14:30
These are all reality today,
337
870260
3000
這些都是現今可以實現的,
14:33
and [in] the future, will be evermore possible.
338
873260
3000
而在未來,有更多的可能性會被實現。
14:36
Imagine then
339
876260
2000
想像一下到時候
14:38
just two other little changes.
340
878260
3000
能夠改變的兩個小東西。
14:41
You can change the cells in your body,
341
881260
2000
你可以改變你身體裡的細胞,
14:43
but what if you could change the cells in your offspring?
342
883260
4000
但如果你可以改變你下一代的細胞呢?
14:47
What if you could change the sperm and the ova,
343
887260
2000
如果你可以對精子和卵子進行改變,
14:49
or change the newly fertilized egg,
344
889260
3000
或是對剛受精的受精卵進行改變,
14:52
and give your offspring a better chance
345
892260
2000
讓你的下一代
14:54
at a healthier life --
346
894260
2000
有更健康的生命--
14:56
eliminate the diabetes, eliminate the hemophilia,
347
896260
2000
杜絕糖尿病、血友病,
14:58
reduce the risk of cancer?
348
898260
2000
降低罹患癌症的機率呢?
15:00
Who doesn't want healthier children?
349
900260
3000
有誰不想要更健康的小孩呢?
15:03
And then, that same analytic technology,
350
903260
3000
到時候,這些能做出改變、
15:06
that same engine of science
351
906260
2000
預防疾病的科學分析技術
15:08
that can produce
352
908260
2000
同樣的科學技術
15:10
the changes to prevent disease,
353
910260
2000
能讓我們
15:12
will also enable us
354
912260
3000
調整並取得一些
15:15
to adopt super-attributes,
355
915260
2000
超級屬性,
15:17
hyper-capacities --
356
917260
2000
超高的容量--
15:19
that better memory.
357
919260
2000
更好的記憶力。
15:21
Why not have the quick wit
358
921260
2000
何不快速擁有像
15:23
of a Ken Jennings,
359
923260
2000
肯•詹寧斯(美國〈危險邊緣〉機智問答節目冠軍) 的機智,
15:25
especially if you can augment it
360
925260
2000
特別是如果你能夠把它再加上
15:27
with the next generation of the Watson machine?
361
927260
3000
下一代沃森機器的能力呢? (沃森機器為IBM推出的人工智慧電腦,在〈危險邊緣〉中挑戰肯•詹寧斯)
15:30
Why not have the quick twitch muscle
362
930260
3000
何不擁有快速收縮的肌肉,
15:33
that will enable you to run faster and longer?
363
933260
3000
讓你可以跑的更快、更遠?
15:36
Why not live longer?
364
936260
4000
何不活的更久?
15:40
These will be irresistible.
365
940260
2000
這些變化都讓人無法拒絕。
15:42
And when we are at a position
366
942260
3000
當我們在一個可以傳給下一代、
15:45
where we can pass it on to the next generation,
367
945260
2000
選擇我們想要取得的屬性
15:47
and we can adopt the attributes we want,
368
947260
3000
的位置上時,
15:50
we will have converted
369
950260
3000
我們就把
15:53
old-style evolution
370
953260
2000
傳統的進化論推進到
15:55
into neo-evolution.
371
955260
2000
新的進化論。
15:57
We'll take a process
372
957260
2000
我們將可以把一般
15:59
that normally might require 100,000 years,
373
959260
2000
需要100,000年的進化過程
16:01
and we can compress it down to a thousand years --
374
961260
3000
壓縮到1000年--
16:04
and maybe even in the next 100 years.
375
964260
3000
甚至在接下來的100年就達成。
16:07
These are choices
376
967260
2000
這些將是在你的孫子
16:09
that your grandchildren,
377
969260
2000
或是他們的孫子
16:11
or their grandchildren,
378
971260
2000
那個年代
16:13
are going to have before them.
379
973260
3000
就可以擁有的選擇。
16:16
Will we use these choices
380
976260
3000
我們會把這些選擇用來
16:19
to make a society that is better,
381
979260
3000
讓這個社會更好、
16:22
that is more successful, that is kinder?
382
982260
3000
更成功、更和藹嗎?
16:25
Or, will we selectively choose different attributes
383
985260
3000
還是我們會選擇性的
16:28
that we want for some of us
384
988260
2000
選擇那些我們自己想擁有
16:30
and not for others of us?
385
990260
2000
卻不想給其他人擁有的那些屬性呢?
16:32
Will we make a society
386
992260
3000
我們會把這個社會
16:35
that is more boring and more uniform,
387
995260
3000
變的更千編一律、更無聊,
16:38
or more robust and more versatile?
388
998260
3000
還是變的更健全、更多元化呢?
16:41
These are the kinds of questions
389
1001260
2000
這些是我們將來
16:43
that we will have to face.
390
1003260
2000
必須面對的問題。
16:45
And most profoundly of all,
391
1005260
2000
而更深層的問題是,
16:47
will we ever be able to develop the wisdom,
392
1007260
3000
我們究竟能夠成長、發展,
16:50
and to inherit the wisdom,
393
1010260
2000
及傳承下去,
16:52
that we'll need to make these choices wisely?
394
1012260
3000
並能夠明智地做出這些選擇嗎?
16:55
For better or worse,
395
1015260
2000
不論是好是壞,
16:57
and sooner than you may think,
396
1017260
2000
而且比我們想像來得更快,
16:59
these choices will be up to us.
397
1019260
3000
我們將會面臨這些選擇。
17:02
Thank you.
398
1022260
2000
謝謝。
17:04
(Applause)
399
1024260
10000
(掌聲)
關於本網站

本網站將向您介紹對學習英語有用的 YouTube 視頻。 您將看到來自世界各地的一流教師教授的英語課程。 雙擊每個視頻頁面上顯示的英文字幕,從那裡播放視頻。 字幕與視頻播放同步滾動。 如果您有任何意見或要求,請使用此聯繫表與我們聯繫。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7