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譯者: Jefferson Wang
審譯者: Ana Choi
00:15
How would you like to be better than you are?
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你想要自己比現在的你更好嗎?
00:19
Suppose I said
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如果我說,
00:21
that, with just a few changes in your genes,
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只需要在你的基因中做幾個改變,
00:23
you could get a better memory --
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你就可以擁有更好的記憶力 --
00:25
more precise,
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更精準、
00:27
more accurate and quicker.
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更精確、更迅速。
00:30
Or maybe you'd like to be more fit, stronger,
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或者你想要更苗條、更強壯、
00:33
with more stamina.
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更有耐力。
00:35
Would you like to be more attractive and self-confident?
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你想變的更具吸引力、更有自信嗎?
00:39
How about living longer with good health?
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活的更久、更健康呢?
00:42
Or perhaps you're one of those
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又或者你是屬於那些
00:44
who's always yearned for more creativity.
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一直嚮往自己能更有創造力的人。
00:47
Which one would you like the most?
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你最想要哪一種呢?
00:51
Which would you like, if you could have just one?
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如果你只能選一種,你會想要哪一種?
00:53
(Audience Member: Creativity.)
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(聽眾: 創造力。)
00:55
Creativity.
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創造力。
00:57
How many people would choose creativity?
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多少人會選擇創造力呢?
00:59
Raise your hands. Let me see.
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舉起你的手讓我看看。
01:01
A few. Probably about as many as there are creative people here.
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有一些人。 大概就跟在坐有創造力的人一樣多吧。
01:04
(Laughter) That's very good.
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很好。
01:06
How many would opt for memory?
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有多少人會選擇記憶力呢?
01:09
Quite a few more.
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比剛才多了一些人。
01:11
How about fitness?
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那健康呢?
01:13
A few less.
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人少了一些。
01:15
What about longevity?
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那更長壽呢?
01:17
Ah, the majority. That makes me feel very good as a doctor.
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喔,大多數的人。 這讓身為醫師的我覺得很好。
01:21
If you could have any one of these,
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如果你能擁有任何一種,
01:24
it would be a very different world.
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這個世界都會非常不一樣。
01:26
Is it just imaginary?
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這只是幻想嗎?
01:28
Or, is it, perhaps, possible?
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還是,這確實有可能呢?
01:31
Evolution has been a perennial topic
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進化論在TED研討會上
01:34
here at the TED Conference,
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一直是個常被討論的主題,
01:37
but I want to give you today
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但是我今天是要以一個醫師的觀點
01:39
one doctor's take on the subject.
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來討論這個主題。
01:41
The great 20th-century geneticist,
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20世紀一名偉大的遺傳學家
01:43
T.G. Dobzhansky,
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费奥多西·多布然斯基,
01:45
who was also a communicant
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他同時是俄國東正教
01:47
in the Russian Orthodox Church,
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的一名傳信者,
01:49
once wrote an essay that he titled
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他曾寫了一篇文章,
01:52
"Nothing in Biology Makes Sense
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標題是〈生物學中沒有什麼是有道理的 --
01:55
Except in the Light of Evolution."
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除了按照進化論的那些〉。
01:58
Now if you are one of those
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現在,如果你是那些
02:00
who does not accept the evidence for biological evolution,
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不接受生物進化論的證據的人,
02:03
this would be a very good time to turn off your hearing aid,
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現在是關掉你的助聽器的好時機,
02:06
take out your personal communications device --
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拿出你的個人通訊設備 --
02:08
I give you permission --
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我准許你們這樣做 --
02:10
and perhaps take another look at Kathryn Schultz's book on being wrong,
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或許你該再看一下凱瑟琳• 舒爾茨寫有關犯錯的那本書,
02:13
because nothing in the rest of this talk
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因為接下來要講的東西
02:15
is going to make any sense whatsoever to you.
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對你來說都是沒有任何意義的。
02:18
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:20
But if you do accept
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但是如果你是
02:22
biological evolution,
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接受生物進化論的,
02:25
consider this:
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仔細想想:
02:27
is it just about the past,
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它只跟過去有關嗎,
02:29
or is it about the future?
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還是它也跟未來有關?
02:31
Does it apply to others,
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它是適用於他人嗎,
02:33
or does it apply to us?
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還是也適用於我們?
02:36
This is another look at the tree of life.
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這是生命之樹,生物的樹狀圖。
02:39
In this picture,
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在這分支圖當中可以看到,
02:41
I've put a bush with a center branching out in all directions,
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我把它由一個中心點往各個方向分支出去,
02:44
because if you look at the edges
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因為如果你看到這個生命之樹
02:46
of the tree of life,
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各個分支的末端,
02:48
every existing species
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以進化論的角度來說
02:50
at the tips of those branches
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每個分支末端的物種
02:52
has succeeded in evolutionary terms:
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都是成功的案例,因為:
02:54
it has survived;
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它生存了下來、
02:56
it has demonstrated a fitness
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它展現了其適合在它生長環境中
02:58
to its environment.
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生存的條件。
03:00
The human part of this branch,
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在這個分支的末端
03:03
way out on one end,
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有關人類的部份,
03:06
is, of course, the one that we are most interested in.
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理所當然是我們最關心的部份。
03:10
We branch off of a common ancestor
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在6至8百萬年前,
03:12
to modern chimpanzees
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我們從一個較低層級的祖先
03:14
about six or eight million years ago.
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分支出來成了現代的黑猩猩。
03:17
In the interval,
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在這期間,
03:19
there have been perhaps 20 or 25
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大概出現過20至25種
03:21
different species of hominids.
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不同形式的人類祖先。
03:24
Some have come and gone.
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其中有一些已經不存在。
03:27
We have been here for about 130,000 years.
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而我們已經生存了130,000年。
03:31
It may seem like we're quite remote
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我們或許看似跟生命之樹中
03:33
from other parts of this tree of life,
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其他的分支隔了很遠,
03:36
but actually, for the most part,
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但實際情形是,大致上來說,
03:39
the basic machinery of our cells
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我們的細胞機構
03:42
is pretty much the same.
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幾乎是一模一樣的。
03:44
Do you realize that we can take advantage
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你知不知道我們可以藉由
03:47
and commandeer the machinery of a common bacterium
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一種低等細菌體的細胞機構
03:50
to produce the protein of human insulin
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來製造人類胰島素的一種蛋白質
03:53
used to treat diabetics?
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來治療糖尿病嗎?
03:55
This is not like human insulin;
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它不是跟人類的胰島素類似而已,
03:57
this is the same protein
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它是跟你胰臟分泌出來的
03:59
that is chemically indistinguishable
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胰島素裡面的一種蛋白質
04:01
from what comes out of your pancreas.
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完全一樣。
04:06
And speaking of bacteria,
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講到細菌,
04:08
do you realize that each of us carries in our gut
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你知道我們腸子裡的細菌數量
04:11
more bacteria
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比我們身體所有細胞的數量
04:13
than there are cells in the rest of our body?
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還要多嗎?
04:15
Maybe 10 times more.
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大概有10倍之多。
04:17
I mean think of it,
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我說,想想看,
04:19
when Antonio Damasio asks about your self-image,
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當安東尼奧• 達馬斯奧在問你對於自我的形象的時候,
04:22
do you think about the bacteria?
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你有想到這些細菌嗎?
04:26
Our gut is a wonderfully hospitable environment
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我們的腸子是一個非常適合
04:28
for those bacteria.
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這些細菌生長的環境。
04:30
It's warm, it's dark, it's moist,
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它很溫暖、很陰暗、很潮濕,
04:32
it's very cozy.
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非常的舒適。
04:34
And you're going to provide all the nutrition that they could possibly want
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而且那些細菌完全不需要任何工夫,
04:36
with no effort on their part.
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你就會為它們提供任何需要的營養。
04:38
It's really like an Easy Street for bacteria,
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這簡直是細菌的天堂,
04:41
with the occasional interruption
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除了偶爾會被
04:44
of the unintended forced rush to the exit.
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強迫性的推向出口。
04:46
But otherwise,
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除此之外,
04:49
you are a wonderful environment for those bacteria,
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你就是這些細菌最完美的生長環境,
04:52
just as they are essential to your life.
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而這些細菌對你也一樣重要。
04:55
They help in the digestion of essential nutrients,
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它們幫助消化分解一些必要的營養素。
04:58
and they protect you against certain diseases.
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它們也保護你不受某些疾病的侵襲。
05:02
But what will come in the future?
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但是未來會是怎麼樣呢?
05:04
Are we at some kind of evolutionary equipoise
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身為一個物種,我們的演進
05:07
as a species?
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已經達到一種平衡了嗎?
05:09
Or, are we destined
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又或者,我們就是註定
05:11
to become something different --
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要變得不一樣 --
05:13
something, perhaps, even better adapted
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要變得更加能夠適應
05:16
to the environment?
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外在的環境?
05:18
Now let's take a step back in time
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現在我們回朔到140億年前,
05:21
to the Big Bang, 14 billion years ago --
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宇宙大爆炸 --
05:24
the Earth, the solar system,
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45億年前,
05:26
about four and a half billion years --
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地球與太陽系的形成 --
05:29
the first signs of proto-life,
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30~40億年前,
05:31
maybe three to four billion years ago on Earth --
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第一次出現原始生命的跡象 --
05:33
the first multi-celled organisms,
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大概8~10億年前,
05:36
perhaps as much
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第一個多細胞生物
05:38
as 800 or a billion years ago --
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誕生了 --
05:41
and then the human species,
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最後,在這130,000年來
05:43
finally emerging
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人類這個物種
05:45
in the last 130,000 years.
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終於出現了。
05:48
In this vast unfinished symphony of the universe,
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宇宙就像首未完成的交響樂,
05:51
life on Earth is like a brief measure;
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地球上的生命就像其中幾個小節;
05:54
the animal kingdom,
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動物王國,
05:56
like a single measure;
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就像其中一個小節;
05:59
and human life,
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而人類,
06:01
a small grace note.
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就像其中一個音符而已。
06:03
That was us.
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這就是我們。
06:06
That also constitutes the entertainment portion of this talk,
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這也是這個研討會中較有娛樂性的部分,
06:08
so I hope you enjoyed it.
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希望你們有感受到。
06:10
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
06:12
Now when I was a freshman in college,
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我在大學一年級的時候
06:15
I took my first biology class.
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上了我人生中第一堂生物課。
06:17
I was fascinated
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生物學的高雅及美麗
06:19
by the elegance and beauty of biology.
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深深的吸引了我。
06:22
I became enamored of the power of evolution,
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我變得非常地著迷於進化的力量,
06:25
and I realized something very fundamental:
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並且我了解到了一些很基本的事情:
06:27
in most of the existence of life
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在大部分現行存在的單細胞有機體
06:29
in single-celled organisms,
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的生命當中,
06:31
each cell simply divides,
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每個細胞就這樣簡單的分裂,
06:33
and all of the genetic energy of that cell
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然後該細胞中所有的基因能量
06:36
is carried on in both daughter cells.
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就被帶到了它的子細胞。
06:39
But at the time multi-celled organisms come online,
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但是到了多細胞有機體的出現之後
06:43
things start to change.
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就變的不一樣了。
06:45
Sexual reproduction enters the picture.
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有性生殖開始出現。
06:48
And very importantly,
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而且非常重要的是,
06:50
with the introduction of sexual reproduction
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透過可以將基因傳遞給後代的
06:53
that passes on the genome,
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有性生殖,
06:55
the rest of the body
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身體的其他部位
06:57
becomes expendable.
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變得可以被消耗的。
06:59
In fact, you could say
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事實上,你可以說
07:02
that the inevitability of the death of our bodies
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在進化的時間線上,
07:05
enters in evolutionary time
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我們身體最終會凋零死亡的必然性
07:07
at the same moment
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跟有性生殖的開始
07:09
as sexual reproduction.
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是同時出現的。
07:11
Now I have to confess,
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現在我必須說,
07:13
when I was a college undergraduate,
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當我還是大學生的時候,
07:15
I thought, okay, sex/death, sex/death, death for sex --
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我想,好吧,性/死亡,性/死亡,為了性而死亡--
07:19
it seemed pretty reasonable at the time,
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在當時似乎是非常有道理的,
07:22
but with each passing year,
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但一年一年過去,
07:24
I've come to have increasing doubts.
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我開始有愈來愈多的懷疑。
07:26
I've come to understand the sentiments of George Burns,
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我開始理解喬治• 伯恩斯的思想,
07:29
who was performing still in Las Vegas
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他當時還在拉斯維加斯表演,
07:31
well into his 90s.
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直到他90多歲。
07:33
And one night, there's a knock at his hotel room door.
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一天晚上,有人敲他下榻旅館的門。
07:35
He answers the door.
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他應了門。
07:37
Standing before him is a gorgeous, scantily clad showgirl.
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站在門口的是個非常美麗又穿的很少的舞女。
07:40
She looks at him and says,
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他看著他說:
07:42
"I'm here for super sex."
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「我是來跟你消魂的做愛的。 」
07:45
"That's fine," says George, "I'll take the soup."
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「好吧」,喬治說,「我就喝湯吧」" ("super sex超級性交" 發音似 "soup or sex湯或是性交")
07:48
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
07:52
I came to realize,
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我開始意識到
07:54
as a physician,
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作為一個醫師,
07:56
that I was working toward a goal
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一直以來我努力的目標與
07:59
which was different from the goal of evolution --
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進化論的目標是不一樣的--
08:02
not necessarily contradictory, just different.
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不見得互相違背,但就是不同。
08:05
I was trying to preserve the body.
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我一直嘗試去保存身體。
08:07
I wanted to keep us healthy.
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我想要我們保持健康。
08:09
I wanted to restore health from disease.
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我想要使我們從疾病中恢復健康。
08:12
I wanted us to live long and healthy lives.
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我想要我們活的又長久又健康。
08:15
Evolution is all about passing on the genome
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而進化全是為了把基因
08:18
to the next generation,
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傳遞給下一代,
08:20
adapting and surviving
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一代接著一代
08:23
through generation after generation.
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適應並存活下去。
08:25
From an evolutionary point of view,
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從進化的觀點來看,
08:28
you and I are like the booster rockets
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我們就像是帶有推進器的火箭,
08:30
designed to send the genetic payload
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被設計來把"基因"載送到
08:32
into the next level of orbit
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下一層的軌道
08:34
and then drop off into the sea.
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然後落下掉進海裡。
08:37
I think we would all understand the sentiment that Woody Allen expressed
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我想我們都應該可以了解伍迪•艾倫所說的,
08:40
when he said, "I don't want to achieve immortality through my work.
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他說:「 我不想透過我的成就而不朽。」
08:44
I want to achieve it through not dying."
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「 我想透過不死而不朽。」
08:46
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:49
Evolution does not necessarily
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進化,不一定
08:52
favor the longest-lived.
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是偏向活得最久的。
08:54
It doesn't necessarily favor the biggest
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他不一定偏向最大的、
08:56
or the strongest or the fastest,
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最強壯的或是最快速的,
08:58
and not even the smartest.
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甚至也不偏向最聰明的。
09:00
Evolution favors
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進化,偏向
09:02
those creatures best adapted
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那些最能夠適應
09:05
to their environment.
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其環境的生物。
09:07
That is the sole test
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它完全是考驗著
09:09
of survival and success.
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成功存活下去的能力。
09:11
At the bottom of the ocean,
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在海底,
09:13
bacteria that are thermophilic
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耐高溫的細菌
09:15
and can survive at the steam vent heat
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可以存活在熱蒸汽的環境;
09:18
that would otherwise produce, if fish were there,
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如果魚在那種環境,
09:21
sous-vide cooked fish,
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就會慢慢的被煮熟 (sous-vide法式真空低溫(約60度C)煮法);
09:23
nevertheless, have managed
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然而,它們卻可以
09:25
to make that a hospitable environment for them.
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適應並接受那樣的環境。
09:30
So what does this mean,
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這說明了什麼呢?
09:33
as we look back at what has happened in evolution,
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當我們回頭看看進化的過程發生了什麼事情,
09:36
and as we think about the place again
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當我們再次想想人類在進化中
09:39
of humans in evolution,
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扮演的角色,
09:42
and particularly as we look ahead
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尤其是向前看到
09:45
to the next phase,
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下一個階段,
09:47
I would say
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我會跟你說
09:49
that there are a number of possibilities.
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有許多的可能性。
09:52
The first is that we will not evolve.
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第一種是我們停止進化。
09:57
We have reached
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我們已經達到
09:59
a kind of equipoise.
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一種平衡。
10:01
And the reasoning behind that would be,
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這背後的原因是,
10:03
first, we have, through medicine,
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首先,我們透過醫學
10:06
managed to preserve a lot of genes
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保存下來很多本來
10:08
that would otherwise be selected out
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會被淘汰、從人口中消失
10:10
and be removed from the population.
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的那些基因。
10:12
And secondly, we as a species
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再者,我們是一個能夠
10:14
have so configured our environment
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配置環境的物種,
10:17
that we have managed to make it adapt to us
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就跟我們適應環境一樣,
10:20
as well as we adapt to it.
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我們讓環境來適應我們。
10:23
And by the way, we immigrate and circulate
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另外,我們因為大量的
10:25
and intermix so much
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移民、流通以及混合,
10:27
that you can't any longer
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我們已經不是相互隔離的,
10:29
have the isolation that is necessary
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而這又正是進化發生
10:31
for evolution to take place.
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的必要條件。
10:34
A second possibility
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第二種可能
10:36
is that there will be evolution of the traditional kind,
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就是傳統的進化方式,
10:39
natural, imposed by the forces of nature.
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自然的、由自然的力量推進的。
10:44
And the argument here would be
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這個可能性的論點在於
10:46
that the wheels of evolution grind slowly,
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進化雖然很緩慢,
10:49
but they are inexorable.
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但是是無法被阻擋或改變的。
10:51
And as far as isolation goes,
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就隔離性來說,
10:53
when we as a species
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身為一個物種,當我們殖民到
10:55
do colonize distant planets,
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其他遙遠的星球時,
10:57
there will be the isolation and the environmental changes
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就會有環境的變化並有其隔離性,
11:00
that could produce evolution
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一種自然進化
11:03
in the natural way.
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必要的隔離性。
11:05
But there's a third possibility,
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但是有第三種可能性,
11:07
an enticing, intriguing and frightening possibility.
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一種吸引人、引人入勝卻也令人害怕的可能性。
11:10
I call it neo-evolution --
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我把它稱作新進化論--
11:12
the new evolution
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這種新的進化論
11:14
that is not simply natural,
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不只是單純自然的發展,
11:16
but guided and chosen
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還會因為我們,做為單一個體,
11:19
by us as individuals
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所做的一些決定
11:22
in the choices that we will make.
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而被引導、發展的。
11:24
Now how could this come about?
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要怎麼讓這個成真呢?
11:27
How could it be possible that we would do this?
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如何能做到這樣呢?
11:30
Consider, first, the reality
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第一個考量的是
11:33
that people today, in some cultures,
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現在,有一其他些文化的人
11:36
are making choices about their offspring.
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對他們的後代做了一些選擇。
11:39
They're, in some cultures,
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在一些文化中,
11:41
choosing to have more males than females.
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他們選擇生男性較多於生女性。
11:44
It's not necessarily good for the society,
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這樣對社會不見得是好的,
11:46
but it's what the individual and the family are choosing.
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但卻是個體與家庭的選擇。
11:50
Think also,
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再想想,
11:52
if it were possible ever
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如果能夠選擇
11:56
for you to choose, not simply to choose the sex of your child,
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不僅是選擇小孩的性別,
11:59
but for you in your body
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還可以選擇在你自己身體中
12:02
to make the genetic adjustments
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對那些基因進行一些的調整,
12:05
that would cure or prevent diseases.
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治癒疾病或是預防一些疾病的發生。
12:07
What if you could make the genetic changes
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如果可以改變基因
12:10
to eliminate diabetes or Alzheimer's
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來杜絕糖尿病或是阿茲海默症(老人癡呆)
12:13
or reduce the risk of cancer
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或是降低罹患癌症的風險
12:15
or eliminate stroke?
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或是杜絕中風的發生呢?
12:17
Wouldn't you want
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難道你不會想要
12:19
to make those changes
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對你的基因
12:21
in your genes?
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做那些改變嗎?
12:23
If we look ahead,
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如果我們向前看,
12:25
these kind of changes
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這些改變
12:27
are going to be increasingly possible.
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是愈來愈有可能達到的。
12:32
The Human Genome Project
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人類基因組計畫
12:34
started in 1990,
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1990年就開始了,
12:36
and it took 13 years.
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它花了13年的時間。
12:38
It cost 2.7 billion dollars.
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花了超過27億美元。
12:43
The year after it was finished in 2004,
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在2004年,該計畫結束一年後
12:46
you could do the same job
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你只需要花2000萬美元及3~4個月的時間
12:48
for 20 million dollars in three to four months.
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便可以做出一樣的成果。
12:51
Today, you can have a complete sequence
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今天,你只需要花費大約20000美元
12:54
of the three billion base pairs in the human genome
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以及大概一個禮拜的時間
12:56
at a cost of about 20,000 dollars
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就可以得到完整的基因序列
12:59
and in the space of about a week.
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包含了人體30億個鹼基對的基因序列。
13:01
It won't be very long
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再過不了多久
13:03
before the reality will be
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應該就可以以1000美元
13:05
the 1,000-dollar human genome,
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得到你的基因序列,
13:07
and it will be increasingly available for everyone.
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並且會愈來愈普及大眾。
13:11
Just a week ago,
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就在一個禮拜前,
13:13
the National Academy of Engineering
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美國工程學院
13:15
awarded its Draper Prize
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頒發了它的查爾斯•斯塔克•德雷珀獎獎
13:17
to Francis Arnold and Willem Stemmer,
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給弗朗西斯•阿諾以及威廉•史丹摩,
13:19
two scientists who independently developed techniques
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兩位獨立發展出
13:23
to encourage the natural process of evolution to work faster
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使自然進化更加快速
13:27
and to lead to desirable proteins
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並很有效率的
13:29
in a more efficient way --
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產生我們所想要的蛋白質--
13:31
what Frances Arnold calls "directed evolution."
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弗朗西斯•阿諾稱之為"引導進化"。
13:35
A couple of years ago, the Lasker Prize
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幾年前拉斯克奖
13:38
was awarded to the scientist Shinya Yamanaka
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被頒發給科學家山中伸彌的研究,
13:41
for his research
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在其研究中
13:43
in which he took an adult skin cell,
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它取出了一個成人的細胞,
13:45
a fibroblast,
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一個神經膠原母細胞,
13:47
and by manipulating just four genes,
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透過只改變了四個基因
13:50
he induced that cell
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他使這個細胞
13:52
to revert to a pluripotential stem cell --
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還原到原始多能幹細胞--
13:56
a cell potentially capable
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一個可以長成
13:59
of becoming any cell in your body.
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你身體中任何一種細胞的細胞。
14:02
These changes are coming.
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這些改變就要來臨。
14:04
The same technology
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使用讓細菌製造胰島素
14:06
that has produced the human insulin in bacteria
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一樣的技術就能
14:08
can make viruses
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製造出病毒,
14:10
that will not only protect you against themselves,
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一種不只讓你能夠抵抗它們,
14:13
but induce immunity against other viruses.
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甚至讓你對其他的病毒也免疫的病毒。
14:15
Believe it or not,
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你是否相信,
14:17
there's an experimental trial going on
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有個實驗正在研究
14:19
with vaccine against influenza
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由菸草植物細胞培育出來的
14:22
that has been grown in the cells of a tobacco plant.
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一種流行性感冒的疫苗。
14:26
Can you imagine something good coming out of tobacco?
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你可以想像菸草也能提供有益的東西嗎?
14:30
These are all reality today,
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這些都是現今可以實現的,
14:33
and [in] the future, will be evermore possible.
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而在未來,有更多的可能性會被實現。
14:36
Imagine then
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想像一下到時候
14:38
just two other little changes.
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能夠改變的兩個小東西。
14:41
You can change the cells in your body,
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你可以改變你身體裡的細胞,
14:43
but what if you could change the cells in your offspring?
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但如果你可以改變你下一代的細胞呢?
14:47
What if you could change the sperm and the ova,
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如果你可以對精子和卵子進行改變,
14:49
or change the newly fertilized egg,
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或是對剛受精的受精卵進行改變,
14:52
and give your offspring a better chance
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讓你的下一代
14:54
at a healthier life --
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有更健康的生命--
14:56
eliminate the diabetes, eliminate the hemophilia,
347
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杜絕糖尿病、血友病,
14:58
reduce the risk of cancer?
348
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降低罹患癌症的機率呢?
15:00
Who doesn't want healthier children?
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有誰不想要更健康的小孩呢?
15:03
And then, that same analytic technology,
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到時候,這些能做出改變、
15:06
that same engine of science
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預防疾病的科學分析技術
15:08
that can produce
352
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同樣的科學技術
15:10
the changes to prevent disease,
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能讓我們
15:12
will also enable us
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調整並取得一些
15:15
to adopt super-attributes,
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超級屬性,
15:17
hyper-capacities --
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超高的容量--
15:19
that better memory.
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更好的記憶力。
15:21
Why not have the quick wit
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何不快速擁有像
15:23
of a Ken Jennings,
359
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肯•詹寧斯(美國〈危險邊緣〉機智問答節目冠軍) 的機智,
15:25
especially if you can augment it
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特別是如果你能夠把它再加上
15:27
with the next generation of the Watson machine?
361
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下一代沃森機器的能力呢? (沃森機器為IBM推出的人工智慧電腦,在〈危險邊緣〉中挑戰肯•詹寧斯)
15:30
Why not have the quick twitch muscle
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何不擁有快速收縮的肌肉,
15:33
that will enable you to run faster and longer?
363
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讓你可以跑的更快、更遠?
15:36
Why not live longer?
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何不活的更久?
15:40
These will be irresistible.
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這些變化都讓人無法拒絕。
15:42
And when we are at a position
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當我們在一個可以傳給下一代、
15:45
where we can pass it on to the next generation,
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選擇我們想要取得的屬性
15:47
and we can adopt the attributes we want,
368
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的位置上時,
15:50
we will have converted
369
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我們就把
15:53
old-style evolution
370
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傳統的進化論推進到
15:55
into neo-evolution.
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新的進化論。
15:57
We'll take a process
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我們將可以把一般
15:59
that normally might require 100,000 years,
373
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需要100,000年的進化過程
16:01
and we can compress it down to a thousand years --
374
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壓縮到1000年--
16:04
and maybe even in the next 100 years.
375
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甚至在接下來的100年就達成。
16:07
These are choices
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這些將是在你的孫子
16:09
that your grandchildren,
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或是他們的孫子
16:11
or their grandchildren,
378
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那個年代
16:13
are going to have before them.
379
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就可以擁有的選擇。
16:16
Will we use these choices
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我們會把這些選擇用來
16:19
to make a society that is better,
381
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讓這個社會更好、
16:22
that is more successful, that is kinder?
382
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更成功、更和藹嗎?
16:25
Or, will we selectively choose different attributes
383
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還是我們會選擇性的
16:28
that we want for some of us
384
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選擇那些我們自己想擁有
16:30
and not for others of us?
385
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卻不想給其他人擁有的那些屬性呢?
16:32
Will we make a society
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我們會把這個社會
16:35
that is more boring and more uniform,
387
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3000
變的更千編一律、更無聊,
16:38
or more robust and more versatile?
388
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還是變的更健全、更多元化呢?
16:41
These are the kinds of questions
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這些是我們將來
16:43
that we will have to face.
390
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必須面對的問題。
16:45
And most profoundly of all,
391
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而更深層的問題是,
16:47
will we ever be able to develop the wisdom,
392
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我們究竟能夠成長、發展,
16:50
and to inherit the wisdom,
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及傳承下去,
16:52
that we'll need to make these choices wisely?
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並能夠明智地做出這些選擇嗎?
16:55
For better or worse,
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不論是好是壞,
16:57
and sooner than you may think,
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而且比我們想像來得更快,
16:59
these choices will be up to us.
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我們將會面臨這些選擇。
17:02
Thank you.
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謝謝。
17:04
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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