请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。
翻译人员: Chunxiang Qian
校对人员: Felix Chen
00:15
I want to say that really and truly,
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我想说的是
00:17
after these incredible speeches
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继这些非凡的演讲
00:19
and ideas that are being spread,
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和广泛传播的想法之后
00:21
I am in the awkward position
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我真的处于一个尴尬的境地
00:23
of being here to talk to you today
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因为今天我要讲的
00:25
about television.
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是电视
00:28
So most everyone watches TV.
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几乎每个人都看电视
00:30
We like it. We like some parts of it.
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我们喜欢看电视 至少它的一部分
00:33
Here in America, people actually love TV.
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在美国,人们热爱电视
00:36
The average American watches TV
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普通美国人每天
00:39
for almost 5 hours a day.
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看5个小时的电视
00:42
Okay?
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是吧?
00:44
Now I happen to make my living these days in television,
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我恰好是靠电视吃饭的
00:47
so for me, that's a good thing.
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所以对我来说,是个好事
00:49
But a lot of people don't love it so much.
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但很多人并不太喜欢它
00:52
They, in fact, berate it.
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实际上,痛斥电视
00:54
They call it stupid,
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他们称之为愚蠢
00:56
and worse, believe me.
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肯定还有更难听的
00:58
My mother, growing up,
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我的母亲,在我成长过程中
01:00
she called it the "idiot box."
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叫它“傻子盒子”
01:02
But my idea today is not to debate
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但我今天不是要辩论
01:04
whether there's such a thing as good TV or bad TV;
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电视的损益之处
01:07
my idea today
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我今天
01:09
is to tell you that I believe
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是向告诉诸位
01:11
television has a conscience.
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电视是有良知的
01:14
So why I believe that television has a conscience
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为什么我相信电视有良知
01:17
is that I actually believe
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因为我相信
01:19
that television directly reflects
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电视直接地反映了国民在
01:22
the moral, political,
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道德,政治
01:24
social and emotional need states of our nation --
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社会和情绪上的需要
01:27
that television is how we actually disseminate
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因为电视是我们传播
01:30
our entire value system.
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整个价值体系的方法
01:32
So all these things are uniquely human,
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所以人类具有的一切特质
01:35
and they all add up
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都组成了
01:37
to our idea of conscience.
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我们对良知的理解
01:39
Now today, we're not talking about good and bad TV.
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今天,我们不是讨论电视好坏
01:41
We're talking about popular TV.
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我们谈的是流行电视
01:44
We're talking about top-10 Nielsen-rated shows
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50年间在
01:47
over the course of 50 years.
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尼尔森排行前十的电视节目
01:49
How do these Nielsen ratings
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尼尔森排行是如何
01:51
reflect not just what you've heard about,
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反映你所闻
01:54
which is the idea of our social, collective unconscious,
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也就是社会性的集体潜意识
01:58
but how do these top-10 Nielsen-rated shows
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同时这些50年间
02:00
over 50 years
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在尼尔森排行前十的电视节目
02:02
reflect the idea
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是如何反映了
02:04
of our social conscience?
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我们的社会良知?
02:06
How does television evolve over time,
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电视又是如何与时俱进
02:08
and what does this say about our society?
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怎样反映了社会现实?
02:10
Now speaking of evolution,
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说到演化
02:12
from basic biology, you probably remember
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从生物学来说,你大概想到
02:15
that the animal kingdom, including humans,
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动物世界,包括人类
02:18
have four basic primal instincts.
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具有四种基本本能
02:20
You have hunger; you have sex; you have power;
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饥饿,性欲,权利
02:23
and you have the urge for acquisitiveness.
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和获取欲望
02:27
As humans, what's important to remember
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作为人类,重要的是
02:29
is that we've developed, we've evolved over time
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我们在漫长时间中演化
02:32
to temper, or tame,
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能够驾驭
02:34
these basic animal instincts.
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这些本能
02:37
We have the capacity to laugh and cry.
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我们可以笑和哭
02:40
We feel awe, we feel pity.
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我们感受敬畏和同情
02:42
That is separate and apart
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这讲我们
02:44
from the animal kingdom.
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和动物区别开来
02:46
The other thing about human beings
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人类的另一特性是
02:48
is that we love to be entertained.
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我们热衷于娱乐
02:51
We love to watch TV.
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我们喜欢看电视
02:53
This is something that clearly separates us
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这也是区别于
02:55
from the animal kingdom.
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动物的
02:57
Animals might love to play,
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动物也许喜欢玩耍
02:59
but they don't love to watch.
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但他们不喜欢观看
03:02
So I had an ambition
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所以我试图
03:04
to discover what could be understood
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探索
03:06
from this uniquely human relationship
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这种电视节目和
03:08
between television programs
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人类良知间的独特关系
03:10
and the human conscious.
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能给我们什么启示
03:12
Why has television entertainment evolved the way it has?
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为什么电视娱乐以它的方式发展?
03:15
I kind of think of it
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我想像它
03:17
as this cartoon devil or angel
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像卡通版的天使和魔鬼一样
03:19
sitting on our shoulders.
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坐在我们肩膀上
03:21
Is television literally functioning
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电视是不是真的
03:23
as our conscience,
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如同我们的良知
03:25
tempting us and rewarding us at the same time?
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诱惑我们的同时奖励我们?
03:28
So to begin to answer these questions,
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为解答这个问题
03:30
we did a research study.
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我们做了一个研究
03:32
We went back 50 years
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从50年前开始
03:34
to the 1959/1960 television season.
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1959/1960的收视旺季
03:37
We surveyed the top-20 Nielsen shows
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每一年
03:39
every year for 50 years --
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我们调查尼尔森排行前20个电视节目——
03:41
a thousand shows.
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是从一千个电视节目里挑出来的
03:43
We talked to over 3,000 individuals --
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我们向三千余名
03:45
almost 3,600 --
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几乎是三千六百名——
03:47
aged 18 to 70,
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18到70岁的
03:49
and we asked them how they felt emotionally.
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观众征询他们的情绪上的感受
03:51
How did you feel
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他们对观看这每一个电视节目的
03:53
watching every single one of these shows?
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感受如何?
03:56
Did you feel a sense of moral ambiguity?
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有觉得一种道德的不确定吗?
03:58
Did you feel outrage? Did you laugh?
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有觉得愤怒吗?笑了吗?
04:01
What did this mean for you?
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对你意义何在?
04:03
So to our global TED audiences,
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所以对全球的TED观众
04:05
I want to say that this was a U.S. sample.
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我想说这是个美国标本
04:07
But as you can see,
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但是
04:09
these emotional need states are truly universal.
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这些感情需求是共通的
04:12
And on a factual basis,
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另外一个实事是
04:14
over 80 percent of the U.S.'s most popular shows
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超过百分之八十的美国流行电视节目
04:17
are exported around the world.
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出口到全世界
04:19
So I really hope our global audiences
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所以我真心希望全球观众
04:21
can relate.
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能有同感
04:23
Two acknowledgments
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在展示数据前
04:25
before our first data slide:
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首先要感谢两个人:
04:27
For inspiring me
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一位启发了
04:29
to even think about the idea of conscience
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我去思考良知这个问题
04:32
and the tricks that conscience can play on us on a daily basis,
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以及良知是如何影响我们的日常生活
04:36
I thank legendary rabbi, Jack Stern.
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谢谢传奇牧师,杰克・斯特恩
04:40
And for the way in which I'm going to present the data,
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另外关于公布数据方法
04:43
I want to thank TED community superstar Hans Rosling,
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我得谢谢TED社区的明星汉斯・罗斯林
04:46
who you may have just seen.
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你们也许刚刚见过
04:48
Okay, here we go.
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好,我们开始吧
04:50
So here you see,
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这里看到的
04:52
from 1960 to 2010,
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就是从1960年到2010年
04:54
the 50 years of our study.
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50年的研究
04:57
Two things we're going to start with --
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我们从两点着手-
04:59
the inspiration state and the moral ambiguity state,
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启发性和道德不确定性
05:02
which, for this purpose,
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为此
05:04
we defined inspiration
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我们定义启发性为
05:06
as television shows that uplift me,
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电视节目提升我们
05:08
that make me feel much more positive about the world.
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使我们更积极面对世界
05:11
Moral ambiguity are televisions shows
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道德不确定性是指那些
05:14
in which I don't understand
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我不明白
05:16
the difference between right and wrong.
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是非分界的电视节目
05:19
As we start, you see in 1960
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你看到1960年开端
05:21
inspiration is holding steady.
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启发性比较稳定
05:23
That's what we're watching TV for.
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那是我们看电视的原因
05:25
Moral ambiguity starts to climb.
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道德不确定性开始爬升
05:27
Right at the end of the 60s,
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六十年代末
05:29
moral ambiguity is going up,
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道德不确定性在上升
05:31
inspiration is kind of on the wane.
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启发性则在衰落
05:33
Why?
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为什么
05:35
The Cuban Missile Crisis, JFK is shot,
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古巴导弹危机,肯尼迪总统遇刺
05:37
the Civil Rights movement,
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美国民权运动
05:39
race riots, the Vietnam War,
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种族暴动,越战
05:41
MLK is shot, Bobby Kennedy is shot,
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马丁·路德·金遇刺,鲍勃・肯尼迪遇刺
05:43
Watergate.
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水门事件
05:45
Look what happens.
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看看有什么变化
05:47
In 1970, inspiration plummets.
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70年代,启发性下滑
05:49
Moral ambiguity takes off.
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道德不确定性上升
05:51
They cross,
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二者交叉而过
05:53
but Ronald Reagan, a telegenic president, is in office.
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但罗纳德・里根,最上镜的总统上任
05:55
It's trying to recover.
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试图纠正
05:57
But look, it can't:
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但是看,不行
05:59
AIDS, Iran-Contra,
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艾滋病,伊朗门
06:01
the Challenger disaster, Chernobyl.
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更严重的灾难,切尔诺贝利核事故
06:03
Moral ambiguity becomes the dominant meme in television
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道德不确定性成为电视的主导模因
06:07
from 1990 for the next 20 years.
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从1990年开始持续了20年
06:09
Take a look at this.
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再来看看这个
06:11
This chart is going to document a very similar trend.
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这个图表将要展现的是非常相似的趋势
06:14
But in this case, we have comfort -- the bubble in red --
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但在这个表上,有舒适性-红点
06:17
social commentary and irreverence
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社会评论以及不敬
06:19
in blue and green.
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是蓝点和绿点
06:22
Now this time on TV
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这个时候的电视上
06:24
you have "Bonanza," don't forget, you have "Gunsmoke,"
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可以看到《大淘金》,别忘了《荒野大镖客》(均为西部片)
06:27
you have "Andy Griffith,"
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还有安迪·格里菲斯
06:29
you have domestic shows all about comfort.
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国内的电视节目都令人愉快
06:32
This is rising. Comfort stays whole.
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舒适性在上升,在主导地位
06:35
Irreverence starts to rise.
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不敬呈上升趋势
06:37
Social commentary is all of a sudden spiking up.
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社会评论突然激增
06:40
You get to 1969, and look what happens.
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看看1969年的情况
06:43
You have comfort, irreverence, and social commentary,
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舒适性,不敬和社会评论
06:46
not only battling it out in our society,
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同时占据社会
06:49
but you literally have two establishment shows --
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当时有两大电视节目-
06:53
"Gunsmoke" and "Gomer Pyle" --
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《荒野大镖客》和《傻子派尔》-
06:55
in 1969 are the number-two- and number-three-rated television shows.
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在1969年是分别排行第二和第三的电视节目
06:58
What's number one?
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第一是什么呢?
07:00
The socially irreverent hippie show,
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藐视社会的嬉皮士节目
07:03
"Rowan and Martin's Laugh-In."
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《鲁旺和马丁搞笑集》
07:05
They're all living together, right.
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他们都同时存在
07:07
Viewers had responded dramatically.
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观众对此反映强烈
07:09
Look at this green spike in 1966
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看看1966年的这个
07:12
to a bellwether show.
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对于一个人气节目的反应突起
07:14
When you guys hear this industry term, a breakout hit,
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当你听到这个行业术语,突破
07:16
what does that mean?
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这意味着什么?
07:18
It means in the 1966 television season,
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意味着1966年收视旺季里
07:21
The "Smothers Brothers" came out of nowhere.
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《窒息兄弟》横空出世
07:25
This was the first show
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这是第一个电视剧
07:27
that allowed viewers to say,
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让观众惊叹
07:29
"My God,
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“天哪
07:31
I can comment on how I feel about the Vietnam War,
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我能通过电视对越战
07:34
about the presidency, through television?"
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还有总统执政评论?”
07:36
That's what we mean by a breakout show.
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这就是我所说的突破
07:39
So then, just like the last chart, look what happens.
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最后一部分
07:42
In 1970,
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1970年
07:44
the dam bursts. The dam bursts.
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如溃堤一般
07:46
Comfort is no longer why we watch television.
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舒适性不再是我们看电视的原因
07:49
Social commentary and irreverence
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社会评论和不敬
07:51
rise throughout the 70s.
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在70年代不断上升
07:53
Now look at this.
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看看这个
07:55
The 70s means who? Norman Lear.
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70年代的代表人物是谁?诺曼・李尔
07:58
You have "All in the Family," "Sanford and Son,"
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有《全家福》,《桑福德和儿子》
08:00
and the dominant show --
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和人气剧-
08:02
in the top-10 for the entire 70s --
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整个70年代稳居前十的
08:04
"MAS*H."
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《风流医生俏护士》
08:06
In the entire 50 years
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在我们研究过的50年的
08:08
of television that we studied,
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电视节目中
08:11
seven of 10 shows
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七成高居
08:14
ranked most highly for irreverence
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不敬的分类榜单的节目
08:17
appeared on air during the Vietnam War,
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开播于越战期间
08:19
five of the top-10 during the Nixon administration.
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前十里有5个是出现于尼克松执政期
08:23
Only one generation, 20 years in,
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只是短短一代人时间,20年
08:26
and we discovered,
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我们发现
08:28
Wow! TV can do that?
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哇!电视能做到这些?
08:31
It can make me feel this?
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能让我们感受到这些?
08:33
It can change us?
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它能改变我们?
08:36
So to this very, very savvy crowd,
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对于这群聪明人
08:38
I also want to note
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我也想指出
08:41
the digital folks did not invent disruptive.
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数码时代并没有颠覆时代
08:44
Archie Bunker was shoved out of his easy chair
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40年前
08:46
along with the rest of us
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亚奇・邦克连同我们
08:48
40 years ago.
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被推下了安乐椅
08:50
This is a quick chart. Here's another attribute:
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这个图表比较精简 这是另一个要素
08:52
fantasy and imagination,
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幻想和想像
08:54
which are shows defined as,
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它被定义为
08:56
"takes me out of my everyday realm"
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“逃离平庸日常生活”
08:59
and "makes me feel better."
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和“让我感觉更美好”
09:01
That's mapped against the red dot, unemployment,
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这个标记跟红点,即失业率相对
09:03
which is a simple Bureau of Labor Department statistic.
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失业率是单纯从劳动部获得的数据
09:07
You'll see
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可以看到
09:09
that every time fantasy and imagination shows rise,
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每次幻想/想像的节目增加
09:12
it maps to a spike in unemployment.
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与失业率的上升相对应
09:15
Do we want to see shows
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我们想看节目里
09:17
about people saving money and being unemployed?
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人们省吃俭用还是无业状态吗?
09:20
No. In the 70s
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不 70年代
09:22
you have the bellwether show "The Bionic Woman"
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有热门剧《无敌女金刚》
09:25
that rocketed into the top-10 in 1973,
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1973年这个剧升到前十的榜单
09:28
followed by the "Six Million-Dollar Man" and "Charlie's Angels."
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跟在后面的是《无敌金刚》和《女探俏娇娃》
09:31
Another spike in the 1980s --
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另一个增长是在80年代
09:34
another spike in shows about control and power.
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这个增长是关于控制和权利的节目的增加
09:38
What were those shows?
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是什么电视剧呢?
09:40
Glamorous and rich.
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关于荣誉和财富的
09:42
"Dallas," "Fantasy Island."
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《达拉斯》《梦幻岛》
09:45
Incredible mapping of our national psyche
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(这些剧)与一个冷硬的现实
09:48
with some hard and fast facts:
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共同标记了国民的精神状态:
09:50
unemployment.
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这个现实就是失业率
09:53
So here you are, in my favorite chart,
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这里是我最喜欢的部分
09:56
because this is our last 20 years.
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因为这是最后的20年
09:58
Whether or not you're in my business,
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无论如何你肯定是其中一部分
10:00
you have surely heard or read
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你肯定听过或者读到过
10:03
of the decline of the thing called the three-camera sitcom
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三位摄像系统的情景喜剧的衰落
10:06
and the rise of reality TV.
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和真人秀的崛起
10:10
Well, as we say in the business,
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行业内所称
10:12
X marks the spot.
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X标记点
10:14
The 90s -- the big bubbles of humor --
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90年代-幽默的泡沫期
10:16
we're watching "Friends," "Frasier," "Cheers" and "Seinfeld."
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我们看《六人行》《欢乐一家亲》《干杯酒吧》和《宋飞传》
10:19
Everything's good, low unemployment.
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一起都很美好,低失业率
10:22
But look: X marks the spot.
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但是看:X标记点
10:25
In 2001,
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2001年
10:27
the September 2001 television season,
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2001年九月的收视旺季中
10:30
humor succumbs to judgment once and for all.
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幽默一下子转变为评论
10:34
Why not?
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为什么?
10:36
We had a 2000 presidential election
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2000年总统大选
10:38
decided by the Supreme Court.
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最后又最高法庭判决
10:40
We had the bursting of the tech bubble.
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科技泡沫的破碎
10:42
We had 9/11.
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911事件
10:44
Anthrax becomes part of the social lexicon.
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炭疽热称为新热门词
10:47
Look what happens when we keep going.
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看看后面是什么?
10:49
At the turn of the century, the Internet takes off,
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随着新世纪的到来,互联网普及
10:52
reality television has taken hold.
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真人秀开始占主导
10:55
What do people want in their TV then?
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人们希望在电视上看到什么?
10:57
I would have thought revenge
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我认为是报复
11:00
or nostalgia.
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或者怀旧
11:02
Give me some comfort; my world is falling apart.
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给我点舒适的东西,我的世界破碎不堪
11:04
No, they want judgment.
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不,他们要公平
11:06
I can vote you off the island.
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我要通过投票让你离开小岛
11:08
I can keep Sarah Palin's daughter dancing.
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我要让莎拉・佩林的女儿继续跳舞
11:11
I can choose the next American Idol. You're fired.
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我来定下一个美国偶像 你被炒了
11:14
That's all great, right?
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非常爽 是吧?
11:17
So as dramatically different as these television shows,
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所以如同这些悬殊不同的电视剧
11:21
pure entertainment, have been over the last 50 years --
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过去50年间的纯娱乐
11:24
what did I start with? --
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该怎么说?-
11:26
one basic instinct remains.
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有一个本能留下来了
11:28
We're animals, we need our moms.
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我们是动物,需要母亲
11:31
There has not been a decade of television
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还没有一个年代的电视剧
11:33
without a definitive, dominant TV mom.
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没有一个强大的有利的电视母亲
11:37
The 1950s:
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50年代:
11:39
June Cleever in the original comfort show, "Leave it to Beaver."
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欢乐剧《反斗小宝贝》里的朱恩・克里夫
11:42
Lucille Ball kept us laughing
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露西・鲍尔让我们欢笑
11:45
through the rise of social consciousness in the 60s.
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在60年代的社会意识觉醒里
11:48
Maude Findlay,
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莫德・芬德利
11:50
the epitome of the irreverent 1970s,
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是无敬畏的70年代典型
11:53
who tackled abortion, divorce,
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荧屏上的她经历过流产,离婚
11:55
even menopause on TV.
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甚至是绝经
11:57
The 1980s,
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80年代
11:59
our first cougar was given to us
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艾丽克希丝·卡琳顿(《豪门恩怨》)
12:02
in the form of Alexis Carrington.
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带来第一个冲击
12:05
Murphy Brown took on a vice president
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墨菲・布朗因为她单身母亲的身份
12:07
when she took on the idea of single parenthood.
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而被一位副总统(丹・奎尔)批判
12:12
This era's mom,
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这个时代的母亲
12:14
Bree Van de Kamp.
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Bree Van de Kamp
12:17
Now I don't know if this is the devil or the angel
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现在我也不确定是那个魔鬼还是天使
12:20
sitting on our conscience,
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坐在我们的良知上
12:22
sitting on television's shoulders,
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坐在电视的肩膀上
12:24
but I do know that I absolutely love this image.
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但我知道我喜欢这个图片
12:29
So to you all,
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所以向左右人
12:31
the women of TEDWomen, the men of TEDWomen,
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TEDWomen的女士们,TEDWomen的男士们
12:33
the global audiences of TEDWomen,
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TEDWomen的全球观众
12:36
thank you for letting me present my idea
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谢谢给我这个机会说出我的
12:38
about the conscience of television.
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关于电视良知的观点
12:40
But let me also thank the incredible creators
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也请允许我感谢了不起的制作人
12:43
who get up everyday
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在电视时代的这么多年里
12:45
to put their ideas on our television screens
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他们每一天
12:48
throughout all these ages of television.
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将新点子放到电视荧屏上去
12:50
They give it life on television, for sure,
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他们将生命献给电视事业
12:53
but it's you as viewers,
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但,是作为观众的你们
12:55
through your collective social consciences,
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通过社会的集体意识
12:58
that give it life, longevity,
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给予了电视生命,存在
13:00
power or not.
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力量,
13:02
So thanks very much.
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非常感谢
13:04
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
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