Clay Shirky: How cellphones, Twitter, Facebook can make history

翻译人员: Angelia King 校对人员: Chaoran Yu

I want to talk about the transformed media landscape,

我谈谈变化中的媒体前景，

and what it means for anybody who has a message that they want to get out

现时人们可以使用媒介

to anywhere in the world.

以在世界任何一个地方进行分享。

And I want to illustrate that by telling a couple of stories

我通过一些关于此变化的故事

about that transformation.

来解释。

I'll start here. Last November there was a presidential election.

首先，去年11月举办的美国总统选举。

You probably read something about it in the papers.

你可能在报纸上读到一些新闻。

And there was some concern that in some parts of the country

在美国各地出现了

there might be voter suppression.

选票竞争的问题。

And so a plan came up to video the vote.

有个计划是视频录像选举。

And the idea was that individual citizens

这个点子是，

with phones capable of taking photos or making video

每个市民通过有拍照和摄像功能手机

would document their polling places,

来记录他们的选举场地，

on the lookout for any kind of voter suppression techniques,

去监督任何选票竞争的公平性。

and would upload this to a central place.

可以上传到一个[网络]核心位置。

And that this would operate as a kind of citizen observation --

这是一种公民观察监督类型的操作。

that citizens would not be there just to cast individual votes,

公民不仅仅只是行使个体公民选举。

but also to help ensure the sanctity of the vote overall.

也是帮助确保整个选举的神圣。

So this is a pattern that assumes we're all in this together.

这也确保了我们必须一起行使选举的形式。

What matters here

这重要的

isn't technical capital,

不是技术层面。

it's social capital.

而是社会层面的。

These tools don't get socially interesting

这些工具除非技术应用好才会在社会上越来

until they get technologically boring.

越有趣。不至于乏味。

It isn't when the shiny new tools show up

也不是要等到令人瞩目的新技术闪亮登场，

that their uses start permeating society.

他们的使用才开始遍布社会。

It's when everybody is able to take them for granted.

而是每一个人开始意识到这是必然的。

Because now that media is increasingly social,

因为现在媒体迅速社会化，

innovation can happen anywhere

创新在任何一个地方发生

that people can take for granted the idea that we're all in this together.

人们可以想当然地认为我们都是身处其中。

And so we're starting to see a media landscape

所以我们开始看到媒体前景

in which innovation is happening everywhere,

的创新在任何地方发生。

and moving from one spot to another.

从一个地方发展到另一个地方。

That is a huge transformation.

这是巨大的转变。

Not to put too fine a point on it, the moment we're living through --

不用列举更多，我们

the moment our historical generation is living through --

处在历史发展中的一代人，在生活中

is the largest increase in expressive capability

在人类历史中，表达能力是突出

in human history.

增强的。

Now that's a big claim. I'm going to try to back it up.

现在有个大要求。我说明一下。

There are only four periods in the last 500 years

在过去的500年至少有4个阶段

where media has changed enough to qualify for the label "revolution."

媒体发生很大变化，带有标志产品的变革。

The first one is the famous one, the printing press:

第一种是有名的，出版媒介。

movable type, oil-based inks, that whole complex of innovations

可携带的，油墨，创新的整合

that made printing possible

使出版印刷可行

and turned Europe upside-down, starting in the middle of the 1400s.

在15世纪的中期，开始从上至下转变欧洲。

Then, a couple of hundred years ago,

然后几百年过去

there was innovation in two-way communication,

有两种交流媒体创新。

conversational media: first the telegraph, then the telephone.

会话式的媒介，第一是电报，接下来是电话。

Slow, text-based conversations,

慢，文本输入的会话，

then real-time voice based conversations.

接着即时语音的会话。

Then, about 150 years ago,

然后，大概150年以前，

there was a revolution in recorded media other than print:

除了印刷，在记录媒体有个转变。

first photos, then recorded sound,

首先照片，然后录制声音，

then movies, all encoded onto physical objects.

然后电影，所有都转变为有形实体的编码。

And finally, about 100 years ago, the harnessing of electromagnetic spectrum

最后大概100年前，电磁光谱的应用

to send sound and images through the air -- radio and television.

开始通过空气，录音机，电视传播声音和视图。

This is the media landscape as we knew it in the 20th century.

这是我们所知道的20世纪的媒体前景。

This is what those of us of a certain age

那是我们有一定岁数的人成长和经历过

grew up with, and are used to.

的年代。

But there is a curious asymmetry here.

但是很奇怪这有个不对应的关系。

The media that is good at creating conversations

媒体在交谈会话方面好，

is no good at creating groups.

但没有群体组织。

And the media that's good at creating groups

要是好在群体组织方面，

is no good at creating conversations.

她又不适合交谈会话。

If you want to have a conversation

如果在世界上你想有个会话，

in this world, you have it with one other person.

你和另外一个人会话。

If you want to address a group, you get the same message

如果你想建个组织，你得到同样的信息

and you give it to everybody in the group,

你传递给组织里的每一个人。

whether you're doing that with a broadcasting tower or a printing press.

不管你是和广播机构或者印刷出版社做那些。

That was the media landscape

这都是

as we had it in the twentieth century.

20世纪我们有的媒体前景。

And this is what changed.

这已经变化了。

This thing that looks like a peacock hit a windscreen

这种事看上去像孔雀开屏占了挡风玻璃

is Bill Cheswick's map of the Internet.

是Bill Cheswick的网络图。

He traces the edges of the individual networks

他追踪个人网络的分界线

and then color codes them.

然后用颜色来编码他们。

The Internet is the first medium in history

网络是历史上第一个媒介

that has native support for groups

即自然生成组织

and conversation at the same time.

同时又有对话。

Whereas the phone gave us the one-to-one pattern,

电话只给我们一对一的形式。

and television, radio, magazines, books,

电视，收音机，杂志，书，

gave us the one-to-many pattern,

给我们一对很多的媒体形式。

the Internet gives us the many-to-many pattern.

网络给我们许多对许多的媒体形式。

For the first time,

第一次

media is natively good at supporting these kinds of conversations.

媒体是自然好的支持了会话的类型。

That's one of the big changes.

这是最大的变化之一。

The second big change

第二个大变化

is that, as all media gets digitized,

是随着所有媒体变数字化

the Internet also becomes the mode of carriage

网络开始变成所有媒体传递

for all other media,

的方式。

meaning that phone calls migrate to the Internet,

意味着电话转到网络。

magazines migrate to the Internet, movies migrate to the Internet.

杂志转到网络。电影转到网络。

And that means that every medium

也意味每个媒介和每隔一个媒介紧紧

is right next door to every other medium.

联系。

Put another way,

换句话说，

media is increasingly less just a source of information,

媒介迅速减少为一些消息。

and it is increasingly more a site of coordination,

他更多的是增长型协调网站。

because groups that see or hear or watch or listen to something

因为组织看到，听到，被看到，去听一些事

can now gather around and talk to each other as well.

现在可以聚到一起，互相交流。

And the third big change

第三个变化是

is that members of the former audience, as Dan Gilmore calls them,

以前观众的成员，就如Dan Gilmore称呼他们，

can now also be producers and not consumers.

现在可以成为生产者而不是消费者。

Every time a new consumer

每次一个新消费者

joins this media landscape

加入这个媒体前景

a new producer joins as well,

一个新生产者也随之产生。

because the same equipment --

因为同样的设备，

phones, computers --

电话，计算机，

let you consume and produce.

让你消费和生产。

It's as if, when you bought a book, they threw in the printing press for free;

这就好比，当你买本书，他们免费印刷刊物。

it's like you had a phone that could turn into a radio

当你按对按钮，你用手机转变成

if you pressed the right buttons.

收音机。

That is a huge change

比我们的媒体前景有了巨大

in the media landscape we're used to.

变化。

And it's not just Internet or no Internet.

它不仅是网络化或者不网络化。

We've had the Internet in its public form

我们已经有公众网络化

for almost 20 years now,

到现在大概有20年。

and it's still changing

他还是变化

as the media becomes more social.

随着媒体变得越社会化。

It's still changing patterns

他也变化形式

even among groups who know how to deal with the Internet well.

尽管一些组织知道怎样很好的应对网络。

Second story.

第二个故事，

Last May, China in the Sichuan province

去年五月，中国四川省

had a terrible earthquake, 7.9 magnitude,

发生里氏7.9级的地震，

massive destruction in a wide area, as the Richter Scale has it.

里氏震级地区范围内有可怕的毁灭。

And the earthquake was reported as it was happening.

地震发生时，即时被报道了。

People were texting from their phones. They were taking photos of buildings.

人们用手机传信息。人们拍建筑物的照片。

They were taking videos of buildings shaking.

也拍倒塌的楼房视频。

They were uploading it to QQ, China's largest Internet service.

上传到中国最大的网络服务QQ，

They were Twittering it.

他们推特这个信息。

And so as the quake was happening

随着地震频频发生

the news was reported.

新闻报道了。

And because of the social connections,

因为社会关系，

Chinese students coming elsewhere, and going to school,

中国学生到异地去留学。

or businesses in the rest of the world opening offices in China --

其他国家的商人在中国开办事处。

there were people listening all over the world, hearing this news.

全世界的人们了解了这新闻。

The BBC got their first wind of the Chinese quake from Twitter.

BBC从推特得到中国四川地震的第一消息。

Twitter announced the existence of the quake

推特报道地震的发生

several minutes before the US Geological Survey

比美国地质调查早几分钟

had anything up online for anybody to read.

在线的任何人都可以了解到。

The last time China had a quake of that magnitude

上一次中国发生那规模的地震

it took them three months to admit that it had happened.

政府花了3个月的时间才承认地震发生了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Now they might have liked to have done that here,

现在他们有可能喜欢这样做，

rather than seeing these pictures go up online.

而不是看到这些上传的图片。

But they weren't given that choice,

但是他们别无选择。

because their own citizens beat them to the punch.

因为他们自己公民先发制人报道了新闻。

Even the government learned of the earthquake from their own citizens,

甚至政府从他们自己的公民那了解到地震。

rather than from the Xinhua News Agency.

而不是从新华社。

And this stuff rippled like wildfire.

这个有点像野火燎燃。

For a while there

有一段时间

the top 10 most clicked links on Twitter,

推特上前10常被链接的网页，

the global short messaging service --

全球短信服务，

nine of the top 10 links were about the quake.

有9个链接都是关于地震的。

People collating information,

人们整理信息，

pointing people to news sources,

给人们带来新闻资源

pointing people to the US geological survey.

美国地质调查

The 10th one was kittens on a treadmill, but that's the Internet for you.

第十条就好象猫在踏车上，但那就是对于你而言的网络化。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But nine of the 10 in those first hours.

10个里头的9个第一时间。

And within half a day donation sites were up,

在半天内捐款网出现。

and donations were pouring in from all around the world.

从全球蜂拥而至的捐款。

This was an incredible, coordinated global response.

这真是不可思议的，协调一致的全球反应。

And the Chinese then, in one of their periods of media openness,

然后中国，媒体公开化阶段一种

decided that they were going to let it go,

决定让它公开化。

that they were going to let this citizen reporting fly.

他们开始让居民猛速地报道。

And then this happened.

然后这个发生了。

People began to figure out, in the Sichuan Provence,

在四川省，人们开始指出，

that the reason so many school buildings had collapsed --

许多学校倒塌的原因是，

because tragically the earthquake happened during a school day --

因为地震发生时，悲剧性地，正好是在学校的时间。

the reason so many school buildings collapsed

许多学校倒塌的原因

is that corrupt officials had taken bribes

是豆腐渣工程

to allow those building to be built to less than code.

是这些建筑不按指标去建筑。

And so they started, the citizen journalists started

紧接着，公民记者也开始

reporting that as well. And there was an incredible picture.

报道了。这有一副震惊的图片。

You may have seen in on the front page of the New York Times.

你也可能在纽约时报头版看到过。

A local official literally prostrated himself in the street,

一个当地官员在街上抗议人群的

in front of these protesters,

前面直接跪倒，

in order to get them to go away.

好让她们离开。

Essentially to say, "We will do anything to placate you,

基本上说：“我们会弥补一切过失，

just please stop protesting in public."

请停止抗议吧。”

But these are people who have been radicalized,

但是人们却被激怒了。

because, thanks to the one child policy,

由于计划生育法

they have lost everyone in their next generation.

他们失去了下一代的孩子。

Someone who has seen the death of a single child

一些人看到独身孩子的死亡

now has nothing to lose.

现在一无所有了。

And so the protest kept going.

所以抗议会继续下去。

And finally the Chinese cracked down.

最终中国采取严厉手段。

That was enough of citizen media.

居民媒体有很多。

And so they began to arrest the protesters.

所以他们开始逮捕抗议者。

They began to shut down the media that the protests were happening on.

他们开始封锁抗议者搞的媒体。

China is probably the most successful

中国可能是世界上最成功的

manager of Internet censorship in the world,

网络审查监管人，

using something that is widely described as the Great Firewall of China.

使用一些被广泛称为的中国防火墙。

And the Great Firewall of China

中国防火墙

is a set of observation points

是设置观察点

that assume that media is produced by professionals,

以确保专家弄出媒体，

it mostly comes in from the outside world,

主要监察的是外部世界，

it comes in relatively sparse chunks,

和相对分散的媒体，

and it comes in relatively slowly.

相对比较慢。

And because of those four characteristics

通过这四个特点

they are able to filter it as it comes into the country.

中国政府可以过滤它，然后这种媒体才进入到中国。

But like the Maginot Line,

就好像是马其诺防线，

the great firewall of China was facing in the wrong direction

中国防火墙

for this challenge,

搞错了对象。

because not one of those four things was true in this environment.

因为在当下这四个特点都站不住脚。

The media was produced locally. It was produced by amateurs.

由于媒体当地化和业余化，

It was produced quickly. And it was produced at such an incredible abundance

媒体很快就形成，产生了不可思议的丰富内容。

that there was no way to filter it as it appeared.

政府已没有办法去过滤已经发布的媒体。

And so now the Chinese government, who for a dozen years,

所以现在中国政府，花了20年，

has quite successfully filtered the web,

相当成功地过滤网页，

is now in the position of having to decide

现在要决定

whether to allow or shut down entire services,

是否容许或者关闭整个服务器。

because the transformation to amateur media

因为大众媒体的转变

is so enormous that they can't deal with it any other way.

是如此巨大而找不出好的方法来解决。

And in fact that is happening this week.

事实这周也发生了。

On the 20th anniversary of Tiananmen

于天安门20周年庆时

they just, two days ago, announced

他们2天前宣布

that they were simply shutting down access to Twitter,

他们已经关闭推特的使用。

because there was no way to filter it other than that.

没法去过滤它就关闭。

They had to turn the spigot entirely off.

他们要关闭整个推特接口信息。

Now these changes don't just affect people who want to censor messages.

现在这些变化不仅仅影响审查信息的人们。

They also affect people who want to send messages,

他也影响传递信息的人们。

because this is really a transformation of the ecosystem as a whole,

这确实如一个统为一体的生态系统转变。

not just a particular strategy.

不仅仅指特别的战略。

The classic media problem, from the 20th century

自从20世纪，传统的媒体问题

is, how does an organization have a message

是怎样让组织发布一个

that they want to get out

信息

to a group of people distributed at the edges of a network.

传递到一个网络组里的成员。

And here is the twentieth century answer.

这是20世纪的答案。

Bundle up the message. Send the same message to everybody.

捆绑信息。传递同一信息给每个人。

National message. Targeted individuals.

全国信息。针对性个体。

Relatively sparse number of producers.

相对分散生成者。

Very expensive to do,

非常昂贵去媒体化。

so there is not a lot of competition.

所以没有激烈的竞争。

This is how you reach people.

这就是你怎么传递信息给人们的。

All of that is over.

这已经都是过去的。

We are increasingly in a landscape where media is global,

我们快速经历一个媒体全球化的前景。

social, ubiquitous and cheap.

社会化，无处不在的和便宜的。

Now most organizations that are trying to send messages

现在多数组织开始发布信息

to the outside world, to the distributed collection of the audience,

给外面世界，引起公众的关注，

are now used to this change.

好现在适应这种变化。

The audience can talk back.

公众可以恢复会话。

And that's a little freaky. But you can get used to it after a while, as people do.

这有点奇特。但是你过一段就会习惯，随着人们这样做。

But that's not the really crazy change that we're living in the middle of.

我们生活其中，但这绝对不是疯狂的变化。

The really crazy change is here:

比较疯狂变化是这里。

it's the fact that they are no longer disconnected from each other,

事实上，彼此之间不再被分隔。

the fact that former consumers are now producers,

以前消费者现转为生成者。

the fact that the audience can talk directly to one another;

公众可以直接和另一个公众交流。

because there is a lot more amateurs than professionals,

有比专业多得多的业余媒体者。

and because the size of the network,

因为网络的规模，

the complexity of the network is actually the square

复杂化实际上是参与者数量

of the number of participants,

的平方。

meaning that the network, when it grows large,

意味网络，它变大，

grows very, very large.

变得异常，异常大。

As recently at last decade,

过去的最近十年，

most of the media that was available for public consumption

大众消费的多数媒体

was produced by professionals.

是专业形成的。

Those days are over, never to return.

那些日子一去不复返。

It is the green lines now, that are the source of the free content,

现在是绿色信息年代，免费内容的来源。

which brings me to my last story.

我的最后一个故事。

We saw some of the most imaginative use

在奥巴马竞选活动，我看到一些很有想象化的社会媒体

of social media during the Obama campaign.

应用。

And I don't mean most imaginative use in politics --

我不是指政治上的想象化应用。

I mean most imaginative use ever.

而是曾具最具创意想象的应用。

And one of the things Obama did, was they famously,

奥巴马做过其中之一，比较出名的，

the Obama campaign did, was they famously put up

在奥巴马竞选中，他们建了有名的

MyBarackObama.com, myBO.com

My Barak Obama dot com, myBO.com (同一个网站)

And millions of citizens rushed in to participate,

百万市民蜂拥而入，

and to try and figure out how to help.

尝试和弄明白怎么帮助奥巴马。

An incredible conversation sprung up there.

令人吃惊的对话开始出现。

And then, this time last year,

然后，去年这个时候，

Obama announced that he was going to change his vote on FISA,

奥巴马宣布他将改变他在FISA的选票。

The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.

外国情报监察法。

He had said, in January, that he would not sign a bill

在1月份，他说过，将不签署这项

that granted telecom immunity for possibly warrantless spying

授权电信系统监视

on American persons.

美国人的议案。

By the summer, in the middle of the general campaign,

夏天，大型竞选期间，

He said, "I've thought about the issue more. I've changed my mind.

他说， 这个问题我想很多。我要改变我的观点。

I'm going to vote for this bill."

我要对这议案投一票。

And many of his own supporters

在他自己网站的许多支持者

on his own site went very publicly berserk.

公开地对此生气，狂怒。

It was Senator Obama when they created it. They changed the name later.

他们推选了参议员奥巴马，之后他们改变总统投票。

"Please get FISA right."

请让外国情报监察法合理化。

Within days of this group being created

随着这个组织刚产生的几天之内

it was the fastest growing group on myBO.com;

在myBO.com 是最快增长的组织。

within weeks of its being created it was the largest group.

几周内他是最大的了。

Obama had to issue a press release.

奥巴马只好召开一个新闻发布。

He had to issue a reply.

他不得不公开回复。

And he said essentially, "I have considered the issue.

他基本上说：“我已经考虑这个问题。

I understand where you are coming from.

我理解你们都是从哪里来。

But having considered it all, I'm still going to vote the way I'm going to vote.

但是全面考虑，我还是要去投我应该投的票。

But I wanted to reach out to you and say, I understand that you disagree with me,

但是我想让你们知道，我理解你们和我意见不统一。

and I'm going to take my lumps on this one."

我在这一点不会妥协。

This didn't please anybody. But then a funny thing happened in the conversation.

这并没有取悦任何人。但是在这个会话里有趣的事发生了。

People in that group realized

组里的人们意识到

that Obama had never shut them down.

奥巴马没有把组织关闭。

Nobody in the Obama campaign had ever tried to hide the group

在奥巴马竞选团队里没有一个人曾试图隐藏组织

or make it harder to join,

或者使组织很难加入，

to deny its existence, to delete it,

否定它的存在，删除它，

to take to off the site.

取缔网站。

They had understood that their role

他们知道他们的角色

with myBO.com was to convene their supporters

用myBO.com 去召集他们的支持者

but not to control their supporters.

但不是控制他们的支持者。

And that is the kind of discipline

这是一种

that it takes to make really mature use

媒体成熟

of this media.

使用的体系。

Media, the media landscape that we knew,

媒体，我们虽知道的，曾熟悉的媒体前景，

as familiar as it was, as easy conceptually as it was

简单概念就是

to deal with the idea that professionals broadcast

专业广播人报道

messages to amateurs,

给业余大众的观点

is increasingly slipping away.

迅速悄然而逝。

In a world where media is global, social, ubiquitous and cheap,

在这个世界里，媒体是全球化，社会化，无处不在和廉价的，

in a world of media where the former audience

媒体世界原先的大众

are now increasingly full participants,

现在急速完全参与为媒体者，

in that world, media is less and less often

在这个世界，媒体就是显而易见

about crafting a single message

关于生成一个信息

to be consumed by individuals.

会被不同的个体分享消化。

It is more and more often

它会越来越明显

a way of creating an environment for convening

创造一个聚集

and supporting groups.

和支持组织的方式。

And the choice we face,

我们面临选择，不管媒体环境对我们是否有利，

I mean anybody who has a message they want to have heard

我指发信息的任何人想让

anywhere in the world,

世界上任何地方都能

isn't whether or not that is the media environment we want to operate in.

了解到信息媒体。

That's the media environment we've got.

这才是我们要的媒体环境。

The question we all face now is,

现在我们都面临的问题是，

"How can we make best use of this media?

“我们怎样更好应用这个媒体？

Even though it means changing the way we've always done it."

尽管他意味我们得随时改变即以执行的方法。”

Thank you very much.

十分感谢。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）