Clay Shirky: How cellphones, Twitter, Facebook can make history

譯者: Chih-Yuan Huang 審譯者: melody yang

I want to talk about the transformed media landscape,

我想先談論媒體工具轉變的整個架構

and what it means for anybody who has a message that they want to get out

和這對於任何訊息想要散播到世界各地的人來說

to anywhere in the world.

意味著什麼

And I want to illustrate that by telling a couple of stories

我將以圖表的方式來說幾個

about that transformation.

關於這樣的轉變的故事

I'll start here. Last November there was a presidential election.

我先從這邊開始，去年11月有場總統大選

You probably read something about it in the papers.

你們也許曾由報章讀到這些事

And there was some concern that in some parts of the country

而這當中有人擔心在這國家中有部份地區

there might be voter suppression.

可能有選民抑制

And so a plan came up to video the vote.

因此一個拍攝投票過程的計畫產生了

And the idea was that individual citizens

當時的概念是每位

with phones capable of taking photos or making video

擁有攝影功能手機的公民

would document their polling places,

可以記錄他們的投票所

on the lookout for any kind of voter suppression techniques,

來尋找任何形式的選民抑制技術

and would upload this to a central place.

並將他們的記錄上傳到一個中心

And that this would operate as a kind of citizen observation --

這將如公民觀察一般運作

that citizens would not be there just to cast individual votes,

民眾不只是在投票所投票

but also to help ensure the sanctity of the vote overall.

也幫助確保整體票選的神聖性

So this is a pattern that assumes we're all in this together.

這個模式預設集體的參與

What matters here

重點是

isn't technical capital,

這並非技術資本

it's social capital.

這是社會資本

These tools don't get socially interesting

這些工具必須在技術上不再新奇後

until they get technologically boring.

才會在社會上變得有意思

It isn't when the shiny new tools show up

這些閃亮的新工具並不是在剛出現的時候

that their uses start permeating society.

就始滲透社會，被大眾利用

It's when everybody is able to take them for granted.

而是當他們已經普遍後

Because now that media is increasingly social,

因為當媒體工具不斷地社交化

innovation can happen anywhere

創新可以發生在任何地方

that people can take for granted the idea that we're all in this together.

人們可以理所當然的認為，大家都有參與的能力

And so we're starting to see a media landscape

因此，我們正在開始看到一個

in which innovation is happening everywhere,

創新無所不在的媒體架構

and moving from one spot to another.

從一個點到另一個點

That is a huge transformation.

那是個巨大的轉變

Not to put too fine a point on it, the moment we're living through --

簡單來說，我們目前正在經歷的

the moment our historical generation is living through --

我們這歷史性的一代正在經歷的

is the largest increase in expressive capability

是人類史上表達能力

in human history.

最大的增長

Now that's a big claim. I'm going to try to back it up.

這是很大膽的聲稱，我會試著證明它

There are only four periods in the last 500 years

在過去五百年，只有四個時期中的

where media has changed enough to qualify for the label "revolution."

媒體轉變足以稱為革命

The first one is the famous one, the printing press:

第一個最著名，印刷媒體

movable type, oil-based inks, that whole complex of innovations

活字印刷、油墨，那一系列的創新

that made printing possible

實現了印刷術

and turned Europe upside-down, starting in the middle of the 1400s.

在十五世紀中期，它徹底的顛覆了整個歐洲

Then, a couple of hundred years ago,

然後幾百年前

there was innovation in two-way communication,

雙向溝通有了創新

conversational media: first the telegraph, then the telephone.

交談式的媒體，首先是電報，然後電話

Slow, text-based conversations,

緩慢的，先是文字式的談話

then real-time voice based conversations.

然後才是即時式的的語音交談

Then, about 150 years ago,

然後，大約一百五十年前

there was a revolution in recorded media other than print:

有一個印刷以外的記錄媒體的革命

first photos, then recorded sound,

首先照片，然後錄音

then movies, all encoded onto physical objects.

再來是影像，一切都被編譯至有形物體中

And finally, about 100 years ago, the harnessing of electromagnetic spectrum

最後大約一百年前，光電技術的使用

to send sound and images through the air -- radio and television.

使得能以空氣、無線電波和電視傳送聲音和圖像

This is the media landscape as we knew it in the 20th century.

這就是我們熟知的二十世紀的媒體架構

This is what those of us of a certain age

這也是伴隨我們成長

grew up with, and are used to.

我們所習慣的媒體

But there is a curious asymmetry here.

但這有個奇怪的不對稱

The media that is good at creating conversations

善於創造對話的媒體

is no good at creating groups.

不善於創造群組

And the media that's good at creating groups

而善於創造群組的媒體

is no good at creating conversations.

不善於創造對話

If you want to have a conversation

在這個世界上，如果你想要有一段對話

in this world, you have it with one other person.

你必須找另一個人

If you want to address a group, you get the same message

若要對一組人發表言論，就必須將相同的訊息

and you give it to everybody in the group,

傳給組裡每個人

whether you're doing that with a broadcasting tower or a printing press.

無論你是用廣播還是印刷

That was the media landscape

這就我們在二十世紀的

as we had it in the twentieth century.

媒體架構

And this is what changed.

這是所發生的改變

This thing that looks like a peacock hit a windscreen

這看似孔雀撞上擋風玻璃的圖案

is Bill Cheswick's map of the Internet.

是Bill Cheswick的網路地圖

He traces the edges of the individual networks

他追蹤個人網絡的界限

and then color codes them.

然後用顏色標代碼

The Internet is the first medium in history

網路是歷史上第一個

that has native support for groups

能同時支持群體

and conversation at the same time.

和對話的媒體

Whereas the phone gave us the one-to-one pattern,

電話提供我們一對一的模式

and television, radio, magazines, books,

而電視、廣播、雜誌、書籍

gave us the one-to-many pattern,

為我們提供了一人對多人的模式

the Internet gives us the many-to-many pattern.

網路則提供了多人對多人的模式

For the first time,

這是媒體本身首次

media is natively good at supporting these kinds of conversations.

適用於支持多類型的對話

That's one of the big changes.

這是大變化之一

The second big change

第二個大的變化

is that, as all media gets digitized,

是所有媒體的數位化

the Internet also becomes the mode of carriage

使得網路成為所有其他媒體

for all other media,

的載體

meaning that phone calls migrate to the Internet,

也就是說，電話遷移到網路上

magazines migrate to the Internet, movies migrate to the Internet.

雜誌遷移到網路上。電影遷移到網路上

And that means that every medium

這代表著，每個媒體

is right next door to every other medium.

都和其它媒體相鄰

Put another way,

換句話說

media is increasingly less just a source of information,

媒體不再只是訊息的來源

and it is increasingly more a site of coordination,

而且日益成為協調站

because groups that see or hear or watch or listen to something

因為看到、聽到、或觀察到東西的族群

can now gather around and talk to each other as well.

現在可以聚在一起互相討論

And the third big change

第三個大的變化

is that members of the former audience, as Dan Gilmore calls them,

是Dan Gilmore所謂的之前的觀眾，

can now also be producers and not consumers.

現在也可以是製作人，而不只是消費者

Every time a new consumer

每當一個新的消費者

joins this media landscape

加入這個媒體架構之中

a new producer joins as well,

一個新的製作人也可同時加入

because the same equipment --

因為同樣的設備

phones, computers --

電話、電腦

let you consume and produce.

能同時讓你消費和生產

It's as if, when you bought a book, they threw in the printing press for free;

這就好比你買一本書，他們免費送你印刷機

it's like you had a phone that could turn into a radio

好比你的手機，當你按對了鈕

if you pressed the right buttons.

會變成電台

That is a huge change

這對我們所習慣的媒體架構來說

in the media landscape we're used to.

是個巨大的變化

And it's not just Internet or no Internet.

而這不只是有網路或沒網路之分

We've had the Internet in its public form

我們已經擁有公共網路

for almost 20 years now,

將近二十年了

and it's still changing

而它仍隨著社會化

as the media becomes more social.

不斷地改變

It's still changing patterns

即使是對於擅長使用網路的族群來說

even among groups who know how to deal with the Internet well.

它的模式仍不斷的在變化

Second story.

第二個故事

Last May, China in the Sichuan province

去年五月，中國四川省

had a terrible earthquake, 7.9 magnitude,

發生了一場可怕的芮式規模七點九級地震

massive destruction in a wide area, as the Richter Scale has it.

是廣泛區域上的大規模摧毀

And the earthquake was reported as it was happening.

而地震在發生當時就有報導

People were texting from their phones. They were taking photos of buildings.

人們從手機發簡訊，用手機拍攝建築

They were taking videos of buildings shaking.

他們拍攝正在搖晃的建築物

They were uploading it to QQ, China's largest Internet service.

他們把這些資訊上傳到QQ，中國最大的網路平台

They were Twittering it.

他們上推特去推

And so as the quake was happening

因此地震發生的當下

the news was reported.

新聞也跟著在報導

And because of the social connections,

而且由於社交聯繫

Chinese students coming elsewhere, and going to school,

從異鄉來上學的中國學生

or businesses in the rest of the world opening offices in China --

或在中國開分公司的外國企業

there were people listening all over the world, hearing this news.

世界各地都有人在傾聽這項新聞

The BBC got their first wind of the Chinese quake from Twitter.

BBC從推特第一時間得到中國地震的消息

Twitter announced the existence of the quake

推特在美國地質調查局在網上

several minutes before the US Geological Survey

公開提供訊息的前幾分鐘

had anything up online for anybody to read.

早已宣佈地震的消息

The last time China had a quake of that magnitude

上一次中國發生相同級數的地震

it took them three months to admit that it had happened.

政府等了三個月才承認地震確實發生

(Laughter)

（眾笑）

Now they might have liked to have done that here,

他們這次地震可能也想要這麼做

rather than seeing these pictures go up online.

而不用理會網路上的照片

But they weren't given that choice,

但他們別無選擇

because their own citizens beat them to the punch.

因為他們的公民比他們快了一步

Even the government learned of the earthquake from their own citizens,

政府甚至是從自己公民獲悉地震

rather than from the Xinhua News Agency.

而不是從新華社(Xinhua News Agency)

And this stuff rippled like wildfire.

訊息如同野火燎原

For a while there

有一段時間

the top 10 most clicked links on Twitter,

全球短信服務，推特

the global short messaging service --

上到前十名點擊率最高的連結

nine of the top 10 links were about the quake.

前九名連結都和地震的消息有關

People collating information,

人們整理資料

pointing people to news sources,

指引人們到新聞來源

pointing people to the US geological survey.

指引人們到美國地質調查局

The 10th one was kittens on a treadmill, but that's the Internet for you.

第十名的連結是跑步機上的貓，不過這就是網路

(Laughter)

（眾笑）

But nine of the 10 in those first hours.

但第一時間內，前十名有九個跟地震有關

And within half a day donation sites were up,

且半天之內，募款網站已上線

and donations were pouring in from all around the world.

人們紛紛從世界各地捐錢救災

This was an incredible, coordinated global response.

這協調一致的全球反應令人不可思議

And the Chinese then, in one of their periods of media openness,

然後中國，在這媒體開放的時期之一

decided that they were going to let it go,

決定放鬆控制

that they were going to let this citizen reporting fly.

他們決定將讓公民自由報導

And then this happened.

然後發生了一件事

People began to figure out, in the Sichuan Provence,

人們開始發現，在四川省

that the reason so many school buildings had collapsed --

之所以有如此多所學校倒塌

because tragically the earthquake happened during a school day --

因為地震不幸的發生在上課的日子

the reason so many school buildings collapsed

而為何這麼多所學校建築倒塌

is that corrupt officials had taken bribes

是因為腐敗的官員受賄

to allow those building to be built to less than code.

讓學校建築不合規定標準

And so they started, the citizen journalists started

因此，公民記者也開始報導這類事件

reporting that as well. And there was an incredible picture.

有張令人難以置信的照片

You may have seen in on the front page of the New York Times.

您可能在紐約時報頭版看過

A local official literally prostrated himself in the street,

一名當地官員

in front of these protesters,

為了疏散民眾

in order to get them to go away.

當街向示威民眾下跪

Essentially to say, "We will do anything to placate you,

大意是說， 「我們將做任何事來安撫你。

just please stop protesting in public."

但請停止公眾抗議。 」

But these are people who have been radicalized,

但這些人已受到刺激

because, thanks to the one child policy,

拜一胎化政策所賜

they have lost everyone in their next generation.

他們失去了所有下一代的人

Someone who has seen the death of a single child

經歷唯一的孩子死去的父母

now has nothing to lose.

已經沒什麼好失去了

And so the protest kept going.

因此，抗議持續著

And finally the Chinese cracked down.

最後，中國政府開始嚴厲打擊抗議活動

That was enough of citizen media.

公民媒體超越了極限

And so they began to arrest the protesters.

他們開始逮捕示威者

They began to shut down the media that the protests were happening on.

官方開始封鎖這些報導抗議事件的媒體

China is probably the most successful

中國也是許是全世界最成功的

manager of Internet censorship in the world,

管理並監督它們網路系統的政府

using something that is widely described as the Great Firewall of China.

利用廣為人知的工具如中國防火長城(Great Firewall of China)

And the Great Firewall of China

而中國防火長城

is a set of observation points

設下許多監測點

that assume that media is produced by professionals,

這些監測點假設，媒體訊息是由專業人士製作

it mostly comes in from the outside world,

它們主要是來自外面的世界

it comes in relatively sparse chunks,

而且相對分散而大量的來

and it comes in relatively slowly.

又相對的緩慢

And because of those four characteristics

因為有這樣的四個特點

they are able to filter it as it comes into the country.

他們可以過濾進到國家內的資訊

But like the Maginot Line,

但是就像馬奇諾防線(Maginot Line)

the great firewall of China was facing in the wrong direction

中國防火長城正在面對它們錯誤判斷

for this challenge,

而造成的挑戰

because not one of those four things was true in this environment.

因為環境中四個特點都不成立

The media was produced locally. It was produced by amateurs.

這些媒體多半製造自本地和業餘人士

It was produced quickly. And it was produced at such an incredible abundance

它快速製造，而且製造和傳播的量大到難以置信

that there was no way to filter it as it appeared.

導致無法去過濾這些快速出現的資料

And so now the Chinese government, who for a dozen years,

所以現在中國政府在經過數十年的努力下

has quite successfully filtered the web,

已經發展出可以成功過濾網路資訊的系統

is now in the position of having to decide

它可以正確且即時的決定

whether to allow or shut down entire services,

是否開放或切斷整個網路伺服器

because the transformation to amateur media

因為傳遞資訊者多是業餘的媒體組織

is so enormous that they can't deal with it any other way.

所以他們無法有效面對中國政府的控管

And in fact that is happening this week.

而這樣的事實正發生於過去的幾個星期

On the 20th anniversary of Tiananmen

在天安門事件(Tiananmen)二十周年之際

they just, two days ago, announced

中國政府在兩天前即宣佈

that they were simply shutting down access to Twitter,

他們將完全的切斷進入推特的方式

because there was no way to filter it other than that.

因為他們無法過濾這樣的資訊所以這麼做

They had to turn the spigot entirely off.

他們關閉所有進入推特的網路節點

Now these changes don't just affect people who want to censor messages.

現在這些改變不只影響要監控訊息的人

They also affect people who want to send messages,

他們甚至直接影響這些想要傳送訊息的人們

because this is really a transformation of the ecosystem as a whole,

因為這些轉變影響的是整個資訊傳播生態

not just a particular strategy.

而不只是特定的策略

The classic media problem, from the 20th century

二十世紀的傳統媒體問題

is, how does an organization have a message

他們只是一群有訊息的團體

that they want to get out

他們想走出一條路

to a group of people distributed at the edges of a network.

將訊息能夠傳送到群體網絡的最外圍

And here is the twentieth century answer.

而二十世紀媒體問題的答案

Bundle up the message. Send the same message to everybody.

就是包裝訊息，並將相同的訊息傳給每個人

National message. Targeted individuals.

國家的訊息、特定的單位

Relatively sparse number of producers.

相對數量較少的訊息傳播者

Very expensive to do,

這是花費昂貴的事情

so there is not a lot of competition.

所以它並不會有許多的競爭

This is how you reach people.

這是影響人們的方式

All of that is over.

如今這些都已經過去了

We are increasingly in a landscape where media is global,

我們正處於從末有過的全球化媒體架構

social, ubiquitous and cheap.

社交的，無所不在而便宜的方式

Now most organizations that are trying to send messages

現在大部份的組織都試著傳遞訊息到外面的世界

to the outside world, to the distributed collection of the audience,

去收集觀眾的意見

are now used to this change.

而我們現今也習慣了這樣的變化

The audience can talk back.

觀眾可以自由的談論

And that's a little freaky. But you can get used to it after a while, as people do.

是有點怪，但一段時間後就會習慣了

But that's not the really crazy change that we're living in the middle of.

而我們生活在這當中，這還不算是真正瘋狂的事情

The really crazy change is here:

真正瘋狂的改變在這裡

it's the fact that they are no longer disconnected from each other,

就是他們再也不能互相脫離的事實

the fact that former consumers are now producers,

這事實是過去的消費者現在變成了製造者

the fact that the audience can talk directly to one another;

事實是觀眾可以直接的彼此討論

because there is a lot more amateurs than professionals,

正因為比起專家有更多的業餘人士

and because the size of the network,

而又因為網路的規模

the complexity of the network is actually the square

使得網路複雜化的規模是

of the number of participants,

實際參與人數的平方

meaning that the network, when it grows large,

這意謂著網路，當它變得更大時

grows very, very large.

它實際上的規模是超過您所能想像的

As recently at last decade,

在過去幾十年來

most of the media that was available for public consumption

大多數的媒體開始公開給公共消費者使用

was produced by professionals.

而是有專業性的製造話題

Those days are over, never to return.

這些日子已經過去而且不會再走回頭路了

It is the green lines now, that are the source of the free content,

現在界線是開放的，也就是免費內容的來源

which brings me to my last story.

這帶來我要說的最後一個故事

We saw some of the most imaginative use

我們看到了在歐巴馬(Obama)競選期間的

of social media during the Obama campaign.

一些極富有想像力的社交媒體的運用

And I don't mean most imaginative use in politics --

我並不是要說最啟發人的事都被用在政治之上

I mean most imaginative use ever.

是說這些是有史以來最富想像力的事情

And one of the things Obama did, was they famously,

而其中一件歐巴馬從事過的，非常著名的事件

the Obama campaign did, was they famously put up

歐巴馬陣營在競選時使用，他們推出了著名的

MyBarackObama.com, myBO.com

My Barak Obama.com，myBO.com網站

And millions of citizens rushed in to participate,

數百萬的選民蜂擁的加入其中

and to try and figure out how to help.

並且試者想出如何協助競選

An incredible conversation sprung up there.

那些不可思議的討論湧進了網站

And then, this time last year,

然後，就在去年的這個時候

Obama announced that he was going to change his vote on FISA,

歐巴馬宣佈他要改變對FISA的投票

The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.

外國情報偵查法(The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act)

He had said, in January, that he would not sign a bill

在一月他曾說過將不會簽署任一項

that granted telecom immunity for possibly warrantless spying

是豁免電信業者可未經授權

on American persons.

監聽美國人民的法案

By the summer, in the middle of the general campaign,

在今年暑假，在一般的競選活動之中

He said, "I've thought about the issue more. I've changed my mind.

他說道 : 「對這議題考慮更多後，我改變了心意，

I'm going to vote for this bill."

我將投下同意票。」

And many of his own supporters

而許多他的支持者

on his own site went very publicly berserk.

在他的網站上公開表達憤怒

It was Senator Obama when they created it. They changed the name later.

這是歐巴馬當議員時所創的網站，他們把它更名為

"Please get FISA right."

「請讓外國情報偵查法走向正途」

Within days of this group being created

在這個團體建立的幾天之內，

it was the fastest growing group on myBO.com;

就變成網站內人數成長最快的群組

within weeks of its being created it was the largest group.

幾個星期內它變成最大的群組

Obama had to issue a press release.

使得歐巴馬必須發表聲明

He had to issue a reply.

他必須對這議題加以回應

And he said essentially, "I have considered the issue.

而他大致是說 : 「我已經深慮過這個議題

I understand where you are coming from.

我也知道你們為何而來

But having considered it all, I'm still going to vote the way I'm going to vote.

但在全盤考慮下，我仍將會投下我的一票

But I wanted to reach out to you and say, I understand that you disagree with me,

不過我想向你們說，我理解您們不同意我

and I'm going to take my lumps on this one."

而且我準備好要為此受到責難。」

This didn't please anybody. But then a funny thing happened in the conversation.

這並沒有取悅任何人，但之後發生了有趣的事

People in that group realized

這團體內的人們瞭解到

that Obama had never shut them down.

歐巴馬並不會因為這樣而關掉網站

Nobody in the Obama campaign had ever tried to hide the group

沒有任何一個在歐巴馬陣營內的人

or make it harder to join,

試著隱藏這些團體或者阻止人們加入

to deny its existence, to delete it,

去否認這樣的事情發生，去刪除留言

to take to off the site.

或者讓網站關閉

They had understood that their role

他們理解自己的角色

with myBO.com was to convene their supporters

他們用myBo.com是要召集他們的支持者

but not to control their supporters.

但不是要控制他們支持者

And that is the kind of discipline

而這樣的紀律

that it takes to make really mature use

是需要有真正成熟的

of this media.

媒體內涵才能使用的

Media, the media landscape that we knew,

媒體，我們所知道的媒體架構

as familiar as it was, as easy conceptually as it was

與過去一樣的熟悉，一樣簡單概念化的

to deal with the idea that professionals broadcast

就是讓訊息透過這些專業媒體

messages to amateurs,

傳達給業餘者

is increasingly slipping away.

而這觀念正在日益的消失著

In a world where media is global, social, ubiquitous and cheap,

現今媒體是全球性的、社交的、無處不在的、低成本的，

in a world of media where the former audience

在媒體的世界裡，現在有越來越多的觀眾

are now increasingly full participants,

能充分參與其中

in that world, media is less and less often

在這個世界內，媒體越來越少針對於

about crafting a single message

一個單獨的訊息

to be consumed by individuals.

傳遞給個別的人

It is more and more often

越來越多的媒體

a way of creating an environment for convening

是用來建立一個公開的環境來支持

and supporting groups.

或召集團體

And the choice we face,

而我們所面對的選擇是

I mean anybody who has a message they want to have heard

任何人都擁有自己的訊息，他們也希望聽到

anywhere in the world,

來自世界上的每個聲音

isn't whether or not that is the media environment we want to operate in.

無關乎我們是否想在這樣的媒體環境運作

That's the media environment we've got.

因為這樣的媒體環境已是我們所擁有的

The question we all face now is,

我們所面對的問題是

"How can we make best use of this media?

「我們如何能將這樣的媒體運用到最好？

Even though it means changing the way we've always done it."

即使要改變我們習以為常的做法。」

Thank you very much.

謝謝大家

(Applause)

(掌聲)