Trita Parsi: Iran and Israel: Peace is possible

翻译人员: Zhiting Chen 校对人员: Jun CHEN

"Iran is Israel's best friend,

“伊朗是以色列最好的朋友

and we do not intend to change our position

而且我们也不打算就德黑兰的问题

in relation to Tehran."

改变我们的立场。”

Believe it or not, this is a quote

信不信由你，这些话

from an Israeli prime minister,

直接引述自以色列总理

but it's not Ben-Gurion or Golda Meir

这个首相不是伊朗国王时代的

from the era of the Shah.

班古里安或戈尔迪•梅厄森

It's actually from Yitzhak Rabin.

它其实是伊扎克•拉宾说的

The year is 1987.

在1987年的时候

Ayatollah Khomeini is still alive,

阿亚图拉•霍梅尼现在还在世

and much like Ahmadinejad today,

就像今天的艾哈迈迪内贾德一样

he's using the worst rhetoric against Israel.

他对以色列用了最差的措辞

Yet, Rabin referred to Iran

但拉宾依然把伊朗

as a geostrategic friend.

当作地缘战略伙伴

Today, when we hear the threats of war

今天，当我们听到战争的恐吓

and the high rhetoric,

和花言巧语

we're oftentimes led to believe

我们时常去相信

that this is yet another one of those unsolvable

这是另一个尚未解决的

Middle Eastern conflicts

中东争端

with roots as old as the region itself.

争端的渊源和宗教一样 有极长的历史

Nothing could be further from the truth,

事实上，没有什么比这一点更加偏离事实了。

and I hope today to show you why that is.

我希望今天来告诉你们 为什么会这样

The relations between the Iranian and the Jewish people

伊朗人和犹太人的关系

throughout history has actually been quite positive,

从古至今总体上来说是较好的

starting in 539 B.C.,

那是从公元前539年

when King Cyrus the Great of Persia

当波斯王朝的国王 居鲁士（又译塞勒斯）

liberated the Jewish people from their Babylonian captivity.

解放了被巴比伦囚禁的犹太人

A third of the Jewish population

三分之一的犹太人

stayed in Babylonia.

留在了巴比伦

They're today's Iraqi Jews.

他们就是今天的伊拉克犹太人

A third migrated to Persia.

三分之一移民到了波斯

They're today's Iranian Jews,

他们就是今天的伊朗犹太人

still 25,000 of them living in Iran,

仍有 25,000人生活在伊朗，

making them the largest Jewish community

他们成为了除以色列外

in the Middle East outside of Israel itself.

中东地区最大的犹太社群

And a third returned to historic Palestine,

三分之一回到了历史上的巴勒斯坦

did the second rebuilding of the Temple in Jerusalem,

在耶路撒冷第二次重建了圣殿

financed, incidentally, by Persian tax money.

顺便说一下，用的是波斯的税钱

But even in modern times,

不过，即使在当代

relations have been close at times.

有时关系也会变得比较密切

Rabin's statement was a reflection

拉宾的声明是反映了

of decades of security and intelligence collaboration

两国间几十年来的安全和情报合作

between the two, which in turn

反过来说，这样的合作

was born out of perception of common threats.

也是出于对某些共同威胁的担忧

Both states feared the Soviet Union

这两个国家都害怕苏联

and strong Arab states such as Egypt and Iraq.

和一些强大的阿拉伯国家， 例如埃及和伊拉克

And, in addition, the Israeli doctrine of the periphery,

此外，以色列信奉的地缘政治

the idea that Israel's security was best achieved

其理念是，以色列的国家安全目标

by creating alliances with the non-Arab states

最好能通过与 非阿拉伯国家联盟达成

in the periphery of the region

在其领土的周围

in order to balance the Arab states in its vicinity.

以平衡其附近的阿拉伯国家的力量

Now, from the Shah's perspective, though,

尽管现在，从伊朗国王的角度看，

he wanted to keep this as secret as possible,

他想要尽可能保守这个秘密

so when Yitzhak Rabin, for instance,

所以当伊扎克 · 拉宾，例如，

traveled to Iran in the '70s,

在七十年代，造访伊朗的时候

he usually wore a wig

他通常戴着假发

so that no one would recognize him.

这样就没有人能认出他来

The Iranians built a special tarmac

伊朗人在德黑兰机场 建造了特别的停机坪

at the airport in Tehran, far away from the central terminal,

离中央航站楼很远

so that no one would notice the large number

所以没有人会注意到

of Israeli planes shuttling between Tel Aviv and Tehran.

大批的以色列飞机穿梭于 特拉维夫和德黑兰之间

Now, did all of this end with the Islamic revolution

现在，所有这一切都随着伊斯兰革命

in 1979?

在 1979 年结束了吗？

In spite of the very clear anti-Israeli ideology

尽管新的政权有很清晰的 反以色列意识形态

of the new regime, the geopolitical logic

两国在地缘政治逻辑下的合作

for their collaboration lived on,

还在继续着

because they still had common threats.

因为他们仍面对共同的威胁

And when Iraq invaded Iran in 1980,

当1980年，伊拉克入侵伊朗的时候

Israel feared an Iraqi victory

以色列担心伊拉克会赢得战争

and actively helped Iran by selling it arms

便积极行动帮助伊朗，

and providing it with spare parts

对其出售武器和提供备件

for Iran's American weaponry

为伊朗提供美国武器装备

at a moment when Iran was very vulnerable

当时伊朗非常脆弱

because of an American arms embargo

由于美国对其实行武器禁运

that Israel was more than happy to violate.

以色列却非常乐意违反这条禁令

In fact, back in the 1980s,

事实上，早在 20 世纪 80 年代，

it was Israel that lobbied Washington

是以色列游说华盛顿

to talk to Iran, to sell arms to Iran,

与伊朗会谈，向伊朗出售武器

and not pay attention to Iran's anti-Israeli ideology.

并不要在意伊朗的反以色列意识形态

And this, of course, climaxed

当然，这在1980年代

in the Iran-Contra scandal of the 1980s.

伊朗反政府丑闻中 被推到风口浪尖

But with the end of the Cold War

但随着冷战的结束

came also the end of the Israeli-Iranian cold peace.

以色列和伊朗间的冷和平 也结束了

Suddenly, the two common threats

突然，那两个共同的威胁

that had pushed them closer together throughout decades,

那几十年来推动着他们互相靠近的威胁

more or less evaporated.

或多或少地消失了

The Soviet Union collapsed,

苏联解体了

Iraq was defeated,

伊拉克被打败了

and a new environment was created in the region

一个新的环境在该区域中形成了

in which both of them felt more secure,

这个新环境让两国都更有安全感

but they were also now left unchecked.

但也使他们都无法被约束

Without Iraq balancing Iran,

没有伊拉克制衡伊朗

Iran could now become a threat,

伊朗现在可被视为一种威胁，

some in Israel argued.

以色列一些人这样争论到

In fact, the current dynamic

事实上，就当前的形势

that you see between Iran and Israel

那些你所看到的发生在 伊朗与以色列之间的事

has its roots more so

其根源开始于

in the geopolitical reconfiguration of the region

冷战结束后该地区

after the Cold War

地缘政治的结构发生了变化

than in the events of 1979,

而不是1979年的一系列事件

because at this point, Iran and Israel

因为冷战结束后，伊朗和以色列

emerge as two of the most powerful states in the region,

成为该地区两个最强大的国家

and rather than viewing each other

比起视对方为

as potential security partners,

潜在的安全伙伴，

they increasingly came to view each other

他们越来越将对方

as rivals and competitors.

视作竞争对手

So Israel, who in the 1980s

以色列那些在八十年代

lobbied for and improved U.S.-Iran relations

为改善美国伊朗关系而游说的人

now feared a U.S.-Iran rapprochement,

现在担心美国伊朗会和解

thinking that it would come

认为那将牺牲

at Israel's security interests' expense,

以色列的安全利益

and instead sought to put Iran

而且试图将伊朗

in increased isolation.

放在越来越被他国孤立的位置

Ironically, this was happening at a time

讽刺的是，那时

when Iran was more interested

伊朗更有兴趣

in peacemaking with Washington

与华盛顿和解

than to see to Israel's destruction.

而不是去理会以色列的破坏

Iran had put itself in isolation

伊朗用激进主义

because of its radicalism,

将自己放在了孤立的位置

and after having helped the United States indirectly

在间接帮助美国

in the war against Iraq in 1991,

1991 年对伊拉克的战争后

the Iranians were hoping

伊朗人希望

that they would be rewarded by being included

他们会因此得到回报

in the post-war security architecture of the region.

从而被纳入该地区的 战后安全体系

But Washington chose to ignore Iran's outreach,

但华盛顿选择忽略伊朗的示好

as it would a decade later in Afghanistan,

十年后在阿富汗他们也是这样，

and instead moved to intensify Iran's isolation,

同时加紧对伊朗的孤立

and it is at this point, around 1993, '94,

就在1993,1994年的时候

that Iran begins to translate

伊朗开始将

its anti-Israeli ideology

其反以色列的意识形态

into operational policy.

化为实施方针

The Iranians believed that whatever they did,

伊朗人相信不管他们做什么

even if they moderated their policies,

即使他们缓和自己的政策，

the U.S. would continue to seek Iran's isolation,

美国将继续对伊朗的孤立

and the only way Iran could compel Washington

而伊朗唯一可能迫使华盛顿

to change its position was by imposing a cost

改变其态度的方法便是

on the U.S. if it didn't.

让美国如果不做出改变 就要为此付出代价

The easiest target was the peace process,

最容易的目标是和平进程，

and now the Iranian ideological bark

现在的伊朗意识形态的吼叫

was to be accompanied by a nonconventional bite,

伴随着非惯用的手段

and Iran began supporting extensively

伊朗开始广泛支持

Palestinian Islamist groups that it previously

那些他曾回避的

had shunned.

巴勒斯坦伊斯兰团体

In some ways, this sounds paradoxical,

某种程度上，这听起来很荒谬

but according to Martin Indyk

但根据克林顿政府的

of the Clinton administration,

马丁•安迪克（的作为）

the Iranians had not gotten it entirely wrong,

伊朗人的策略也并不是完全错误

because the more peace there would be

因为当以色列和巴勒斯坦

between Israel and Palestine,

越发和平

the U.S. believed, the more Iran would get isolated.

美国认为，伊朗越发会被孤立

The more Iran got isolated, the more peace there would be.

伊朗越是被孤立， 以色列和巴勒斯坦才会越和平

So according to Indyk, and these are his words,

所以依照安迪克所说

the Iranians had an interest to do us in

“伊朗人的兴趣在于在和平进程中

on the peace process

打击我们，

in order to defeat our policy of containment.

以此打败我们的遏制政策。”

To defeat our policy of containment,

要打败我们的遏制政策

not about ideology.

不是意识形态。

But throughout even the worst times of their entanglement,

但在他们整个的纠缠中，甚至是最糟糕的时代

all sides have reached out to each other.

所有双方互相都达成共识。

Netanyahu, when he got elected in 1996,

当内塔尼亚胡在1996年当选总理时

reached out to the Iranians to see

他向伊朗人伸出了手

if there were any ways that

寻找有无任何

the doctrine of the periphery could be resurrected.

重建外围合作的可能

Tehran was not interested.

可德黑兰对此不感兴趣

A few years later, the Iranians sent

几年后，伊朗人

a comprehensive negotiation proposal to the Bush administration,

向布什政府提出了全面谈判的提案

a proposal that revealed that there was some potential

这个提案认为存在一些

of getting Iran and Israel back on terms again.

使伊朗和以色列恢复关系的可能

The Bush administration did not even respond.

布什政府却并没有响应

All sides have never missed an opportunity

双方就这样错失了

to miss an opportunity.

每一个机会

But this is not an ancient conflict.

但这不是古老的冲突

This is not even an ideological conflict.

这甚至不是意识形态的冲突

The ebbs and flows of hostility

敌对状态的起起伏伏

have not shifted with ideological zeal,

并不会因为意识形态而变化

but rather with changes in the geopolitical landscape.

而是根据地缘政治格局而变化

When Iran and Israel's security imperatives

当伊朗和以色列为了安全考量

dictated collaboration, they did so

需要合作时，他们这样做了

in spite of lethal ideological opposition to each other.

尽管彼此的意识形态依旧强烈反对对方

When Iran's ideological impulses collided

当伊朗的意识形态

with its strategic interests,

与它的战略利益出现冲突时

the strategic interests always prevailed.

战略利益始终占上风

This is good news, because it means

这是个好消息，因为它意味着

that neither war nor enmity

既没有战争也没有仇怨

is a foregone conclusion.

是注定要发生的。

But some want war.

但有些人想要战争

Some believe or say that it's 1938,

有些人相信甚至说 如果现在是1938 年

Iran is Germany,

伊朗就是德国，

and Ahmadinejad is Hitler.

艾哈迈迪内贾德是希特勒

If we accept this to be true,

如果我们将此视为事实

that indeed it is 1938, Iran is Germany,

事实上它就是1938年，伊朗就是德国，

Ahmadinejad is Hitler,

艾哈迈迪内贾德就是希特勒，

then the question we have to ask ourself is,

那我们给自己出了一个问题，

who wishes to play the role of Neville Chamberlain?

谁愿意来扮演内维尔 · 张伯伦的角色？

Who will risk peace?

谁将拿和平来冒险？

This is an analogy that is deliberately aimed

这个类比意在

at eliminating diplomacy,

去除外交考量

and when you eliminate diplomacy,

当你除去外交考量

you make war inevitable.

战争将无法避免

In an ideological conflict, there can be no truce,

在意识形态的冲突中， 没有休战

no draw, no compromise,

没有平局， 没有妥协，

only victory or defeat.

只有胜利或失败

But rather than making war inevitable

然而比起将两国间矛盾 视为意识形态的冲突

by viewing this as ideological,

进而使得战争无法避免

we would be wise to seek ways

更明智的作法是， 积极寻求方法

to make peace possible.

创造和平的可能

Iran and Israel's conflict is a new phenomenon,

伊朗和以色列的冲突是一种新现象

only a few decades old

只是在长达2500 年的历史长河中的

in a history of 2,500 years,

几十年

and precisely because its roots are geopolitical,

而且正是因为冲突的根源在于地缘政治

it means that solutions can be found,

这也意味着 是可以找到办法来解决的

compromises can be struck,

两国可以达成和解

however difficult it yet may be.

尽管它可能非常艰难

After all, it was Yitzhak Rabin himself who said,

但是毕竟，这是拉宾自己说的

"You don't make peace with your friends.

"你不需要和你的朋友讲和

You make it with your enemies."

而要和你的敌人和解"。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）