Trita Parsi: Iran and Israel: Peace is possible

64,776 views ・ 2013-10-09

TED


Fadlan laba-guji qoraal-hoosaadka Ingiriisiga hoose si aad u daawato muuqaalka.

Translator: Abdiwahab Osman Reviewer: Jamal Omar
00:12
"Iran is Israel's best friend,
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Iran waa saxibka qaaliga ee Israil
00:14
and we do not intend to change our position
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ma anan qorshenne inan badalno boskena
00:17
in relation to Tehran."
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xariirka ee Tehran
00:20
Believe it or not, this is a quote
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rumayso ama ha rumeysan, tani waa midlaga sooxigtay
00:22
from an Israeli prime minister,
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Raiisul wasaare Israil ah
00:24
but it's not Ben-Gurion or Golda Meir
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laakin mahan Ben-Gurion ama Golda Meir
00:26
from the era of the Shah.
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kasoo bilaaw xili taariqeedki Shah.
00:29
It's actually from Yitzhak Rabin.
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Xaqiiqdii waa Yitzhak Rabin kaimaday.
00:31
The year is 1987.
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sanadii 1987.
00:34
Ayatollah Khomeini is still alive,
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Ayatollah Khomeuni weli waa noolyahay,
00:35
and much like Ahmadinejad today,
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iyo kuwo kale badan sida Ahmadnijad maanta,
00:37
he's using the worst rhetoric against Israel.
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wuxuu isticmaalayay hadal karsanan kadhanimada Israil
00:40
Yet, Rabin referred to Iran
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welina, Rabin waxoo tixraacaya Iran
00:43
as a geostrategic friend.
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si saxib ula noqoyo.
00:46
Today, when we hear the threats of war
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Manta, markaynu maqalnay hanjabaada dagalka
00:49
and the high rhetoric,
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iyo codkarsananta baxada leh
00:51
we're oftentimes led to believe
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waxaynka kentay mararka qaar in aaminno
00:52
that this is yet another one of those unsolvable
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inay sanadkani tahay midka mid ah xasilooni darada
00:55
Middle Eastern conflicts
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ka taagan qilaafka Bariga dhexe
00:57
with roots as old as the region itself.
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xididka lafaca ah gobalka qudhiisa
01:01
Nothing could be further from the truth,
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waxba dheerad makunoqon karaan runta
01:05
and I hope today to show you why that is.
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waxaane rajayna manta in idintuso sababta ay sidautahy
01:09
The relations between the Iranian and the Jewish people
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xariirka udhaxeeya Iraaniyinta iyo dadka Yahuuda ah
01:11
throughout history has actually been quite positive,
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Taariqdoo idil waxay ahayd mid ilaa xad macqul ah leh
01:14
starting in 539 B.C.,
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kasoobilaaw 539 B.C.,
01:16
when King Cyrus the Great of Persia
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marki boqor kuuros ee kuwanagsana Persia
01:18
liberated the Jewish people from their Babylonian captivity.
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kaxuroobidii yahuuda kasoobilaw xabsi kabaxsashadii babyloniam.
01:22
A third of the Jewish population
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sadax umeelood meel dadka yahuuda
01:24
stayed in Babylonia.
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ee daganay Babylonia
01:26
They're today's Iraqi Jews.
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waxay yihin manta Ciraaq yahuudooda
01:28
A third migrated to Persia.
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saxad umeelood waxay uguuren Persia
01:31
They're today's Iranian Jews,
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waxaa jiro manta yahuud Iraani ah
01:33
still 25,000 of them living in Iran,
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wili 25,000 oo kamid ah waxay kunool yihin Iran
01:36
making them the largest Jewish community
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ayagoo sameenaya bulshada ugu badan ee yahuuda
01:38
in the Middle East outside of Israel itself.
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wadamada bariga dhaxe bananka Israail
01:41
And a third returned to historic Palestine,
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sadax umeelod waxay kusoo rabteen dhulka taariqiga ee Falastin
01:44
did the second rebuilding of the Temple in Jerusalem,
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miyey dhismeenti labad ee guriga waxlagu caabudo ee Jerusalem,
01:47
financed, incidentally, by Persian tax money.
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maalgalin kadis ah ka socoto lacagta canshurta Persian
01:52
But even in modern times,
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xataa waqtiyadii casriga
01:54
relations have been close at times.
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xariirada waxay ahaayen kuwo isku soodhawanaya xiliyo
01:57
Rabin's statement was a reflection
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dhambalka Rabin waxoo ahay mid milicsi leh
02:00
of decades of security and intelligence collaboration
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labaatanka sano ee amaanka iyo sirdoonka iska kaashanayeen
02:04
between the two, which in turn
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inta udhaxeeso labadooda , taaso ayana
02:06
was born out of perception of common threats.
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kudhalatay aragtida hanjabaada cadiga
02:10
Both states feared the Soviet Union
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labada wadan waxay kacabsadeen midowgi suufiyed
02:13
and strong Arab states such as Egypt and Iraq.
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wadamada xogan ee Carabta sida masar iyo ciraq
02:18
And, in addition, the Israeli doctrine of the periphery,
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intaa waxaa siidheer caqiidada israail ee geeska
02:22
the idea that Israel's security was best achieved
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fikrada amaanka ee israail waxoo ahay mid an lagu gaari
02:26
by creating alliances with the non-Arab states
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sameenta xulufada an Carabta ahayn
02:30
in the periphery of the region
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gobolada geeska
02:32
in order to balance the Arab states in its vicinity.
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si ay umiisaaman wadamada carabta ee nawaaxiga
02:36
Now, from the Shah's perspective, though,
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hada, kaso bilaw aragtidi Shaah inkastoo
02:39
he wanted to keep this as secret as possible,
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ow rabay in sir ahan ow kukeediyo ilaa inta owoodyo
02:43
so when Yitzhak Rabin, for instance,
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marka yitzhak , tusaale ahan
02:45
traveled to Iran in the '70s,
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waxoo udhoofay Iran 70meeyadi
02:47
he usually wore a wig
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sida caadada ah waxoo xiran jiray buruko
02:48
so that no one would recognize him.
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si cidna maysan garan karin asiga
02:51
The Iranians built a special tarmac
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Iiraniyiinta waxay laami qaas ah kadhiseen
02:53
at the airport in Tehran, far away from the central terminal,
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gigada diyaaridaha ee ehran meel kafok bartanahisa
02:56
so that no one would notice the large number
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tooso cida aysan haleeli karin tirada badan
02:59
of Israeli planes shuttling between Tel Aviv and Tehran.
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iska gooshmadki diyaaridaha Israail inta udhaxeysa tel aviv iyo tehran
03:04
Now, did all of this end with the Islamic revolution
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hada, waxaas dhamantot miyey kudhamaaday kacaanki islamka
03:07
in 1979?
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ee 1979?
03:10
In spite of the very clear anti-Israeli ideology
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caqaradii xumeed ee fikrada Israail looga soohorjeeday
03:13
of the new regime, the geopolitical logic
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ee xukunka cusub ee macquulka galka ahay
03:17
for their collaboration lived on,
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ee xariirkooda siisoconayay,
03:19
because they still had common threats.
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maxaa yeelayay wili waxay is wiidarsanayen hajabadyo
03:22
And when Iraq invaded Iran in 1980,
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markii ciraq ay soosartay Iran 1980ki
03:25
Israel feared an Iraqi victory
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israail waxay kacabsatay gusha ciraq
03:28
and actively helped Iran by selling it arms
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iyo firfircoonida ay ucawineyso iran kagaditaanka gacan
03:30
and providing it with spare parts
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iyo kushartitaanta dayactirka
03:33
for Iran's American weaponry
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iran ameerikan ka qubkooda
03:35
at a moment when Iran was very vulnerable
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xiligaasne iran waxay ahayd mid si sahla looweerari karo
03:38
because of an American arms embargo
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maxaa yeelay ameericanka aya cuno qabateyay
03:41
that Israel was more than happy to violate.
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taaso israail ugu faraxsaneed in sharciga jabiso
03:44
In fact, back in the 1980s,
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xaqiidi , hadii dibloogu noqdo 1980ki
03:47
it was Israel that lobbied Washington
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israail ayey ahayd cida soogashay Washington
03:49
to talk to Iran, to sell arms to Iran,
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si ula hadasho iran kana iibiso gacn iran
03:54
and not pay attention to Iran's anti-Israeli ideology.
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mahan soojiido iran fikrada israail kaga soohorjeedo
03:59
And this, of course, climaxed
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tanni dabcan waa xiiso leh
04:01
in the Iran-Contra scandal of the 1980s.
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kasoohorjeedki fadeexada iran 1980ki
04:06
But with the end of the Cold War
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dhamadkii dagalki qabooba
04:08
came also the end of the Israeli-Iranian cold peace.
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sidoo kale waxoo noqday nabdii qaboobed ee israail iyo iran
04:12
Suddenly, the two common threats
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sikadis ah , labada hanjabaat ee caadiga
04:15
that had pushed them closer together throughout decades,
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aya aad iskuugu soodhawaweysay ayga , sikastaba waxay kuansadeen
04:18
more or less evaporated.
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uumi bixid yar ama badan
04:20
The Soviet Union collapsed,
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midowgii suufiyeed waa dhacay
04:22
Iraq was defeated,
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ciraq ne waalaga awoodbadshay
04:24
and a new environment was created in the region
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dagaalka cusub waxaa lagu dhisay gobalka
04:26
in which both of them felt more secure,
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kaaso labadooda ay kadareemin amaan
04:28
but they were also now left unchecked.
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sidoo kale waxay ahaayen kuwo an hubesnen
04:31
Without Iraq balancing Iran,
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ayadoon ciraaq kabaynin iran
04:34
Iran could now become a threat,
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iran hada waxay noqon kartaa hada hanjabat
04:36
some in Israel argued.
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meelaha israail ay kumurmeen
04:39
In fact, the current dynamic
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xaqiiqdi, fiir fircoonida
04:42
that you see between Iran and Israel
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kaaga muuqato iran iyo israail
04:44
has its roots more so
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waxay leedahay xiddo dheer
04:46
in the geopolitical reconfiguration of the region
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ee siyaasada farsameesan ee gobalka
04:49
after the Cold War
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dagaalki qabobay kadib
04:50
than in the events of 1979,
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kabadan dhacdooyinki 1979ki
04:53
because at this point, Iran and Israel
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maxaayelay markan iran iyo israaila
04:56
emerge as two of the most powerful states in the region,
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waxay kusoo baxayn labo wadan ugu aqooda badal gobalka
05:00
and rather than viewing each other
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tasoo doorbidaysa in midba midka kale fiirsado
05:01
as potential security partners,
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sida usuurto galiso amanka is iska kashadan
05:03
they increasingly came to view each other
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waxay dardargaliyen muuqaalkooda
05:06
as rivals and competitors.
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si utartamaan tartanno
05:09
So Israel, who in the 1980s
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sida darteet israil ,taaso 1980
05:11
lobbied for and improved U.S.-Iran relations
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gashay si ucadeyso qaranada midoob xariirkooda iran
05:14
now feared a U.S.-Iran rapprochement,
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hada waxay kacabsi qabtaa xarrirka wanaagsana ee maraykanka-iran
05:18
thinking that it would come
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ayagoo kafakiraaya taas in noqon donta
05:19
at Israel's security interests' expense,
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amaanka israail xiisentisa qaaliga
05:23
and instead sought to put Iran
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iyo badalka ay raadin lahaayen in iran
05:25
in increased isolation.
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ay ku gordhiyaan go'doomin.
05:27
Ironically, this was happening at a time
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waxaa xusid mudan, waxaani waxay dhacen waqti
05:30
when Iran was more interested
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marka iraan ad uxiisayneesay
05:32
in peacemaking with Washington
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nabad lasameenta Washington
05:35
than to see to Israel's destruction.
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inkabada inta arki lahayd israail oo burbursan
05:38
Iran had put itself in isolation
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iran waxay is galisay go'doon
05:40
because of its radicalism,
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sababtoo ah waxay ahayd mid qiireysan
05:42
and after having helped the United States indirectly
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kadib kaalmo kahelidii ameerikanka an tooska ahayn
05:45
in the war against Iraq in 1991,
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inta lagu guda jiray dagalki kaga soohorjeday ciraq 1991
05:47
the Iranians were hoping
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iraaniyinta waxay rajeynaayen
05:49
that they would be rewarded by being included
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in laga amaal marindoono kusoodaritanka lagu soodaray
05:53
in the post-war security architecture of the region.
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cidaanka nabad sugida ee gobolka
05:57
But Washington chose to ignore Iran's outreach,
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laakin Washington waxay dooratay in iska dhaga tirto iran caawideda
06:01
as it would a decade later in Afghanistan,
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si ay dib ugu go aansato in afgaanistan
06:03
and instead moved to intensify Iran's isolation,
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iyo badalka raritanka si ay uxoojinso go'doominta iiran
06:08
and it is at this point, around 1993, '94,
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xaligaan lajoogane, agagaarka 1993,'94.
06:11
that Iran begins to translate
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in iiran bilawday badalitanka
06:14
its anti-Israeli ideology
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fikradeedi israail kadhanta ahayd
06:16
into operational policy.
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una badasho siyaasad howlgaleed
06:18
The Iranians believed that whatever they did,
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iraaniyinta waxay aaminsanaayen waxkasto ay sameeyen
06:20
even if they moderated their policies,
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xataa hadii ay dhaxdhaxaad kanoqdan siyaasadooda
06:23
the U.S. would continue to seek Iran's isolation,
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umeerikan waxay siiwadi lahaayen kadalbashada go'doominta iran
06:26
and the only way Iran could compel Washington
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wadada kaliyahna ufuran ay ku qasbi karaan Washington
06:30
to change its position was by imposing a cost
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inay badalaan booskoda wayneenaya qiimaha
06:33
on the U.S. if it didn't.
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ameerika . hadii aysan noqon
06:36
The easiest target was the peace process,
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tan ugu fudud oo labartilmaamedsanayay waxay ahayd habka nabada
06:40
and now the Iranian ideological bark
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hadane iiraniyiinta fikradooda qaylada
06:43
was to be accompanied by a nonconventional bite,
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waxay ahayd in lasocoto qaniinyada an caadiga ahayn ,
06:47
and Iran began supporting extensively
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iran waxay bilowday taageerida marwalbo
06:51
Palestinian Islamist groups that it previously
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kooxaha islaamiyinta ee falastiin kuwasoo horay
06:54
had shunned.
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neceb kala dhaxeeyay.
06:57
In some ways, this sounds paradoxical,
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siyaaboyinka qar. waxay u egtahay kuwa is burinaya
07:00
but according to Martin Indyk
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laakin marka loofiiriyo martin indyk
07:02
of the Clinton administration,
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oo kamid ah maamulka clinton
07:04
the Iranians had not gotten it entirely wrong,
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iraaniyintan dhamaantot maysan uqaadan qalad,
07:07
because the more peace there would be
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maxaa yeelay nabada badan ee halkas kajirto ayaa waxay noqon lahayd
07:09
between Israel and Palestine,
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mid udhaxeysa israail iyo falastin,
07:11
the U.S. believed, the more Iran would get isolated.
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ameerika waxay aaminsanayen inta badan la go'doomiyo iran
07:14
The more Iran got isolated, the more peace there would be.
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inta badan iran go'doonto, waa nabada badan ee kadhalan karto
07:17
So according to Indyk, and these are his words,
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sidaa darteet marka loofiiriyo indyk, waxa waayay erayadiisa
07:20
the Iranians had an interest to do us in
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iraaniyinta waxay daneynaayen inan usameeno
07:23
on the peace process
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qaab nabadeedka
07:25
in order to defeat our policy of containment.
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si ay ujabiyan siyaasadeena kooban
07:28
To defeat our policy of containment,
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in lajabiyo siyaasadayna kooban
07:31
not about ideology.
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maahan mid fikrad kusabsan
07:35
But throughout even the worst times of their entanglement,
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laakin sikastaba ay ahaato xataa waqtiyadii ugu xumay ee murgidoona
07:39
all sides have reached out to each other.
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labada dhinac way iskaagen
07:42
Netanyahu, when he got elected in 1996,
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netanyahu, markii loocodeeyay sanadii 1996
07:45
reached out to the Iranians to see
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waxoo garsiiyay iiraniyinta inoo tuso
07:47
if there were any ways that
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hadii ay jirto wado un taas
07:49
the doctrine of the periphery could be resurrected.
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oo caqiidada deeganka loosobixin karo
07:52
Tehran was not interested.
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tehran maysan daneenen
07:54
A few years later, the Iranians sent
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sanado kobadan kadib, iraaniyinta waxay direen
07:57
a comprehensive negotiation proposal to the Bush administration,
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gorgortan dhamestiran jeeditanka in maamulka bush
08:01
a proposal that revealed that there was some potential
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soo jiito shaac kaqaadita in jiraan waxyaalo dhici karan
08:05
of getting Iran and Israel back on terms again.
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sida iran iyo israil in dib ugu raabtan sharuudo markale .
08:09
The Bush administration did not even respond.
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maamulka bish kama owsan jawaabin xata
08:12
All sides have never missed an opportunity
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labada dhinac waligood maysan dhaafin fursad
08:15
to miss an opportunity.
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ay kudhaafan fursad
08:20
But this is not an ancient conflict.
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laakin kan mahan khilaf gabobay.
08:25
This is not even an ideological conflict.
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kan xata mahan khilaaf fikradeed
08:28
The ebbs and flows of hostility
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dareemaha iyo caawada raacsan
08:31
have not shifted with ideological zeal,
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maysan badalin fikradi xiisahabadned,
08:34
but rather with changes in the geopolitical landscape.
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laakin dorbidida isbadalka leh ee siyaasada gobalka
08:37
When Iran and Israel's security imperatives
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marka baahida amaanka ee israail iyo iran
08:39
dictated collaboration, they did so
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Taasna ay iska wadakaashaqeen, waay samyen sidaa
08:42
in spite of lethal ideological opposition to each other.
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inkastoo oo ay mucaaradka fikradooda halis midba bida kal kutahay
08:45
When Iran's ideological impulses collided
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marka fikrada israil sidag dag ah iskuugu dhacn
08:48
with its strategic interests,
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si ay kujirto dano istaraatiijiyadeed
08:50
the strategic interests always prevailed.
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danaha istaraatiijiyadeed marwalba waa ka adkaa.
08:54
This is good news, because it means
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kani waa akhbaar wanagsan , maxaa ylay waxay kadhigantahay
08:57
that neither war nor enmity
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in midkoodna colaad kala dhaxen
09:00
is a foregone conclusion.
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waa midhor oo gababsi ah
09:03
But some want war.
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laakin qarkod waxay raban dagal
09:06
Some believe or say that it's 1938,
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qaar aya aminsan ama dhaho 1939
09:09
Iran is Germany,
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iran waa jarmal
09:11
and Ahmadinejad is Hitler.
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axmad najadn waa hitler
09:14
If we accept this to be true,
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hadii aynu aqbalno tan in run tahay
09:16
that indeed it is 1938, Iran is Germany,
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taas xaqiiqda waxay tahay1938, iran in jarmal tahy
09:19
Ahmadinejad is Hitler,
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axmad najadna in hitlr yahy
09:22
then the question we have to ask ourself is,
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suaalaha mudan in iswaydiino waa
09:25
who wishes to play the role of Neville Chamberlain?
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Yaa rajaynaayay in cayaaro doorka Nevilla chamberlain?
09:28
Who will risk peace?
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Yaa Khatar ugalaa nabad?
09:31
This is an analogy that is deliberately aimed
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Tani waa cilmi Taas oo si ulakacah loogu talagay
09:34
at eliminating diplomacy,
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baabi'itanka dibloomaciyad
09:37
and when you eliminate diplomacy,
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markaad suulisidna dibloomasiyada
09:39
you make war inevitable.
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waxaad kusameysa dagaal an qarsamen
09:42
In an ideological conflict, there can be no truce,
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fikrad is khilafsan, wax heshiis xabad joojin ah majirayan
09:45
no draw, no compromise,
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majiran wax dhaxdhaxaad ah
09:47
only victory or defeat.
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waxa kaliyah oojiro waa guul ama khasaro
09:51
But rather than making war inevitable
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laakin waxay kadoor bideen sameenta dagaal an qarsoomen
09:54
by viewing this as ideological,
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ufiiritanka midaan fikrad ahan
09:57
we would be wise to seek ways
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waxaan kudhiiran lahayn in siyaabo kale usameyno
09:59
to make peace possible.
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ay an nabada macquul ugu dhigno
10:02
Iran and Israel's conflict is a new phenomenon,
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iran iyo israil khilafkooda waa layaab cusub
10:06
only a few decades old
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waxyar ayaa goansaday dhalin
10:08
in a history of 2,500 years,
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taarikhda 2,500 san0
10:10
and precisely because its roots are geopolitical,
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sida saxda ah sababtoo ah salakeeda waa siyaasad
10:14
it means that solutions can be found,
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waxayna kadhigan taas in xalkeda lahli karo
10:17
compromises can be struck,
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dhaxdhaxaadiska waxay noqon kartaa shaqo kafadhiisasho
10:20
however difficult it yet may be.
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sikasta ay u adagtahy wili way noqonosa
10:23
After all, it was Yitzhak Rabin himself who said,
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waxaas oo dhan waxay ahaayen yitzhak rabin waxoo nasfad ahantiisa dhahay
10:27
"You don't make peace with your friends.
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"saaxiibada nabad lama sameysid
10:30
You make it with your enemies."
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waxaa lasameysaa nabad cadowgaaga."
10:32
Thank you.
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Mahadsanid .
10:33
(Applause)
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(sacbis)
Ku saabsan shabakadan

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