Why fascism is so tempting -- and how your data could power it | Yuval Noah Harari

767,575 views ・ 2018-06-08

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Tijana Mihajlović
00:12
Hello, everyone.
0
12968
1150
Zdravo svima.
00:15
It's a bit funny, because I did write that humans will become digital,
1
15562
4936
Malo je smešno jer sam pisao kako će ljudi da postanu digitalni,
00:20
but I didn't think it will happen so fast
2
20522
2714
ali nisam mislio da će tako brzo da se desi
00:23
and that it will happen to me.
3
23260
1659
i da će meni da se desi.
00:25
But here I am, as a digital avatar,
4
25649
2682
Ali, evo me u vidu digitalnog avatara,
00:28
and here you are, so let's start.
5
28355
2666
a eto i vas, pa zato počnimo.
00:32
And let's start with a question.
6
32070
2133
I započnimo pitanjem:
00:34
How many fascists are there in the audience today?
7
34823
3534
koliko fašista ima u publici danas?
00:38
(Laughter)
8
38381
1450
(Smeh)
00:39
Well, it's a bit difficult to say,
9
39855
2349
Pa, malo je teško reći
00:42
because we've forgotten what fascism is.
10
42228
3467
jer smo zaboravili šta je fašizam.
00:46
People now use the term "fascist"
11
46498
2579
Ljudi trenutno koriste termin „fašista“
00:49
as a kind of general-purpose abuse.
12
49101
3008
kao neki vid opšteprimenljive uvrede.
00:52
Or they confuse fascism with nationalism.
13
52133
3947
Ili mešaju fašizam sa nacionalizmom.
00:56
So let's take a few minutes to clarify what fascism actually is,
14
56863
5388
Zato, odvojimo nekoliko minuta da razjasnimo šta je zapravo fašizam
01:02
and how it is different from nationalism.
15
62275
3120
i po čemu se razlikuje od nacionalizma.
01:05
The milder forms of nationalism have been among the most benevolent
16
65838
5041
Blaži oblici nacionalizma su među najdobroćudnijim
01:10
of human creations.
17
70903
1458
ljudskim tvorevinama.
01:12
Nations are communities of millions of strangers
18
72990
4111
Nacije su zajednice miliona stranaca
01:17
who don't really know each other.
19
77125
1713
koji se zaista međusobno ne poznaju.
01:19
For example, I don't know the eight million people
20
79489
3405
Na primer, ja ne poznajem osam miliona ljudi
01:22
who share my Israeli citizenship.
21
82918
2556
koji dele sa mnom izraelsko državljanstvo.
01:26
But thanks to nationalism,
22
86109
2167
Međutim, zahvaljujući nacionalizmu,
01:28
we can all care about one another and cooperate effectively.
23
88300
3806
svi možemo da brinemo jedni za druge i da efikasno sarađujemo.
01:32
This is very good.
24
92450
1200
Ovo je veoma dobro.
01:34
Some people, like John Lennon, imagine that without nationalism,
25
94093
5738
Neki ljudi, poput Džona Lenona, zamišljali su da bi bez nacionalizma
01:39
the world will be a peaceful paradise.
26
99855
3790
svet bio miroljubivi raj.
01:44
But far more likely,
27
104010
1428
Međutim, daleko je izvesnije
01:45
without nationalism, we would have been living in tribal chaos.
28
105462
4777
da bismo bez nacionalizma živeli u plemenskom haosu.
01:50
If you look today at the most prosperous and peaceful countries in the world,
29
110684
5135
Pogledate li današnje najprosperitetnije i najmirnije države na svetu,
01:55
countries like Sweden and Switzerland and Japan,
30
115843
4290
države poput Švedske, Švajcarske i Japana,
02:00
you will see that they have a very strong sense of nationalism.
31
120157
4963
videćete da oni imaju veoma snažan osećaj nacionalne pripadnosti.
02:05
In contrast, countries that lack a strong sense of nationalism,
32
125750
4160
Nasuprot tome, države kojima nedostaje snažan osećaj nacionalne pripadnosti,
02:09
like Congo and Somalia and Afghanistan,
33
129934
3421
poput Konga, Somalije i Avganistana,
02:13
tend to be violent and poor.
34
133379
2174
nasilnije su i siromašnije.
02:16
So what is fascism, and how is it different from nationalism?
35
136855
4138
Dakle, šta je fašizam i u čemu se razlikuje od nacionalizma?
02:21
Well, nationalism tells me that my nation is unique,
36
141941
5403
Pa, nacionalizam mi kaže da je moja nacija jedinstvena
02:27
and that I have special obligations towards my nation.
37
147368
3801
i da imam posebne dužnosti prema mojoj naciji.
02:31
Fascism, in contrast, tells me that my nation is supreme,
38
151641
6206
Fašizam, nasuprot tome, mi kaže da je moja nacija superiorna
02:37
and that I have exclusive obligations towards it.
39
157871
3912
i da imam isključive obaveze prema njoj.
02:42
I don't need to care about anybody or anything other than my nation.
40
162895
4831
Ne moram da marim za bilo koga ili za bilo šta osim moje nacije.
02:48
Usually, of course, people have many identities
41
168465
3603
Obično, naravno, ljudi imaju višestruke identitete
02:52
and loyalties to different groups.
42
172092
2422
i odanosti različitim grupama.
02:55
For example, I can be a good patriot, loyal to my country,
43
175036
4804
Na primer, mogu da budem dobar patriota, odan svojoj državi
02:59
and at the same time, be loyal to my family,
44
179864
3238
i da istovremeno budem odan svojoj porodici,
03:03
my neighborhood, my profession,
45
183126
2361
svom komšiluku, svojoj profesiji,
03:05
humankind as a whole,
46
185511
1460
čovečanstvu u celosti,
03:06
truth and beauty.
47
186995
1604
istini i lepoti.
03:09
Of course, when I have different identities and loyalties,
48
189370
4271
Naravno, kada imam različite identitete i odanosti,
03:13
it sometimes creates conflicts and complications.
49
193665
3333
to ponekad stvara sukobe i komplikacije.
03:17
But, well, who ever told you that life was easy?
50
197506
3634
Međutim, dobro, ko vam je ikad rekao da je život lak?
03:21
Life is complicated.
51
201649
2040
Život je komplikovan.
03:23
Deal with it.
52
203713
1150
Nosite se s tim.
03:26
Fascism is what happens when people try to ignore the complications
53
206331
6000
Do fašizma dolazi kada ljudi pokušaju da ignorišu komplikacije
03:32
and to make life too easy for themselves.
54
212355
3109
i pokušaju da suviše pojednostave život za sebe.
03:36
Fascism denies all identities except the national identity
55
216128
5572
Fašizam negira sve identitete osim nacionalnog identiteta
03:41
and insists that I have obligations only towards my nation.
56
221724
5109
i insistira da ja imam obaveze samo prema mojoj naciji.
03:47
If my nation demands that I sacrifice my family,
57
227421
4104
Ako moja nacija zahteva da žrtvujem moju porodicu,
03:51
then I will sacrifice my family.
58
231549
2436
onda ću da žrtvujem moju porodicu.
03:54
If the nation demands that I kill millions of people,
59
234009
4274
Ako nacija zahteva da ubijem milione ljudi,
03:58
then I will kill millions of people.
60
238307
2658
onda ću da ubijem milione ljudi.
04:01
And if my nation demands that I betray truth and beauty,
61
241442
6075
A ako moja nacija zahteva da izdam istinu i lepotu,
04:07
then I should betray truth and beauty.
62
247541
3023
onda treba i da izdam istinu i lepotu.
04:11
For example, how does a fascist evaluate art?
63
251587
4526
Na primer, kako fašista ocenjuje umetnost?
04:16
How does a fascist decide whether a movie is a good movie or a bad movie?
64
256615
5289
Kako fašista odlučuje da li je film dobar ili loš?
04:22
Well, it's very, very, very simple.
65
262728
4172
Pa, veoma, veoma, veoma je prosto.
04:27
There is really just one yardstick:
66
267260
1928
Zaista postoji samo jedno merilo:
04:29
if the movie serves the interests of the nation,
67
269593
3476
ako film služi interesima nacije,
04:33
it's a good movie;
68
273093
1444
onda je to dobar film;
04:34
if the movie doesn't serve the interests of the nation,
69
274561
3183
ako film ne služi interesima nacije,
04:37
it's a bad movie.
70
277768
1222
onda je to loš film.
04:39
That's it.
71
279014
1150
To je to.
04:40
Similarly, how does a fascist decide what to teach kids in school?
72
280496
4888
Slično, kako fašista odlučuje šta treba deca da uče u školi?
04:45
Again, it's very simple.
73
285877
2087
Opet, veoma je prosto.
04:47
There is just one yardstick:
74
287988
1945
Postoji samo jedno merilo:
04:49
you teach the kids whatever serves the interests of the nation.
75
289957
4945
podučavate decu bilo čemu što služi nacionalnom interesu.
04:55
The truth doesn't matter at all.
76
295323
2587
Istina uopšte nije važna.
05:00
Now, the horrors of the Second World War and of the Holocaust remind us
77
300372
5426
Sad, užasi Drugog svetskog rata i Holokausta nas podsećaju
05:05
of the terrible consequences of this way of thinking.
78
305822
4133
na jezive posledice ovog načina razmišljanja.
05:10
But usually, when we talk about the ills of fascism,
79
310508
4545
Međutim, obično kada govorimo o manama fašizma,
05:15
we do so in an ineffective way,
80
315077
2960
radimo to na neefikasan način
05:18
because we tend to depict fascism as a hideous monster,
81
318061
4738
jer često prikazujemo fašizam kao odvratno čudovište,
05:22
without really explaining what was so seductive about it.
82
322823
3906
a da zaista ne objašnjavamo šta je bilo tako zavodljivo u vezi s njim.
05:27
It's a bit like these Hollywood movies that depict the bad guys --
83
327284
4714
Pomalo liči na način na koji holivudski filmovi prikazuju negativce -
05:32
Voldemort or Sauron or Darth Vader --
84
332022
4023
Voldemora ili Saurona ili Darta Vejdera -
05:36
as ugly and mean and cruel.
85
336069
2632
kao ružne, zle i okrutne.
05:38
They're cruel even to their own supporters.
86
338725
2538
Oni su okrutni čak i prema sopstvenim podržavaocima.
05:41
When I see these movies, I never understand --
87
341670
3621
Kad odgledam ove filmove, uopšte ne razumem -
05:45
why would anybody be tempted to follow a disgusting creep like Voldemort?
88
345315
6505
zašto bi bilo koga privlačilo da prati odvratnog ljigavca poput Voldemora?
05:52
The problem with evil is that in real life,
89
352895
3516
Problem sa zlom je što u stvarnom životu
05:56
evil doesn't necessarily look ugly.
90
356435
2891
zlo nužno ne izgleda ružno.
05:59
It can look very beautiful.
91
359688
1892
Može da izgleda veoma lepo.
06:02
This is something that Christianity knew very well,
92
362354
2723
To je nešto čega je hrišćanstvo bilo veoma svesno,
06:05
which is why in Christian art, as [opposed to] Hollywood,
93
365101
3706
zbog čega je u hrišćanskoj umetnosti, nasuprot Holivudu,
06:08
Satan is usually depicted as a gorgeous hunk.
94
368831
3868
Satana često prikazan kao prelepi zavodnik.
06:13
This is why it's so difficult to resist the temptations of Satan,
95
373259
4596
Zbog toga je tako teško odoleti Sataninim iskušenjima
06:17
and why it is also difficult to resist the temptations of fascism.
96
377879
4744
i zbog toga je takođe teško odoleti iskušenjima fašizma.
06:22
Fascism makes people see themselves
97
382980
2722
Zbog fašizma ljudi sebe vide
06:25
as belonging to the most beautiful and most important thing in the world --
98
385726
5243
kao pripadnike najlepše i najvažnije stvari na svetu -
06:30
the nation.
99
390993
1302
nacije.
06:32
And then people think,
100
392319
1346
I onda ljudi misle:
06:33
"Well, they taught us that fascism is ugly.
101
393689
3189
„Dobro, učili su nas da je fašizam ružan.
06:37
But when I look in the mirror, I see something very beautiful,
102
397442
3024
Međutim, kad pogledam u ogledalo, vidim nešto veoma lepo,
06:40
so I can't be a fascist, right?"
103
400490
2191
pa ne mogu da budem fašista, zar ne?“
06:43
Wrong.
104
403022
1151
Greška.
06:44
That's the problem with fascism.
105
404197
1547
To je problem kod fašizma.
06:45
When you look in the fascist mirror,
106
405768
2619
Kada pogledate u fašističko ogledalo,
06:48
you see yourself as far more beautiful than you really are.
107
408411
4534
vidite sebe kao mnogo lepše nego što zaista jeste.
06:53
In the 1930s, when Germans looked in the fascist mirror,
108
413371
4293
Tokom 1930-ih, kad bi Nemci pogledali u fašističko ogledalo,
06:57
they saw Germany as the most beautiful thing in the world.
109
417688
4040
videli bi Nemačku kao nešto najlepše na svetu.
07:02
If today, Russians look in the fascist mirror,
110
422244
3436
Ako bi danas Rusi pogledali u fašističko ogledalo,
07:05
they will see Russia as the most beautiful thing in the world.
111
425704
3559
videli bi Rusiju kao nešto najlepše na svetu.
07:09
And if Israelis look in the fascist mirror,
112
429577
3128
I ako bi Izraelci pogledali u fašističko ogledalo,
07:12
they will see Israel as the most beautiful thing in the world.
113
432729
4380
videli bi Izrael kao nešto najlepše na svetu.
07:18
This does not mean that we are now facing a rerun of the 1930s.
114
438657
5057
Ovo ne znači da smo trenutno suočeni sa reprizom 1930-ih.
07:24
Fascism and dictatorships might come back,
115
444304
3475
Fašizam i diktature mogu da se vrate,
07:27
but they will come back in a new form,
116
447803
3239
ali će da se vrate u novom obliku,
07:31
a form which is much more relevant
117
451066
2741
obliku koji je daleko relevantniji
07:33
to the new technological realities of the 21st century.
118
453831
3809
za novu tehnološku stvarnost XXI veka.
07:38
In ancient times,
119
458538
1547
U drevna vremena,
07:40
land was the most important asset in the world.
120
460109
4160
zemlja je bila najvažniji posed na svetu.
07:44
Politics, therefore, was the struggle to control land.
121
464911
3864
Politika, samim tim, bila je borba za kontrolu zemlje.
07:49
And dictatorship meant that all the land was owned by a single ruler
122
469141
5860
A diktatura je značila da svu zemlju poseduje jedan vladar
07:55
or by a small oligarch.
123
475025
1872
ili manji oligarh.
07:57
And in the modern age, machines became more important than land.
124
477827
4819
A u moderno vreme, mašine su postale važnije od zemlje.
08:03
Politics became the struggle to control the machines.
125
483347
3600
Politika je postala borba da se kontrolišu mašine.
08:07
And dictatorship meant
126
487354
1996
A diktatura je značila
08:09
that too many of the machines became concentrated
127
489374
3910
da je preveliki broj mašina postao koncentrisan
08:13
in the hands of the government or of a small elite.
128
493308
3280
u rukama vlade ili malobrojne elite.
08:17
Now data is replacing both land and machines
129
497109
4706
Sada podaci uzimaju mesto zemlje i mašina
08:21
as the most important asset.
130
501839
2111
kao najvažnijeg poseda.
08:24
Politics becomes the struggle to control the flows of data.
131
504600
5340
Politika postaje borba da se kontroliše protok podataka.
08:29
And dictatorship now means
132
509964
2708
A diktatura trenutno znači
08:32
that too much data is being concentrated in the hands of the government
133
512696
5780
da je prevelika količina podataka koncentrisana u rukama vlade
08:38
or of a small elite.
134
518500
1920
ili malobrojne elite.
08:40
The greatest danger that now faces liberal democracy
135
520871
4912
Najveća opasnost s kojom je trenutno suočena liberalna demokratija
08:45
is that the revolution in information technology
136
525807
3270
je to što će revolucija u informacionoj tehnologiji
08:49
will make dictatorships more efficient than democracies.
137
529101
4790
učiniti diktature efikasnijim od demokratija.
08:54
In the 20th century,
138
534760
1619
U XX veku,
08:56
democracy and capitalism defeated fascism and communism
139
536403
4960
demokratija i kapitalizam su porazili fašizam i komunizam
09:01
because democracy was better at processing data and making decisions.
140
541387
5202
jer je demokratija bila bolja u obradi podataka i donošenju odluka.
09:07
Given 20th-century technology,
141
547319
2366
Uz tehnologiju XX veka,
09:09
it was simply inefficient to try and concentrate too much data
142
549709
6035
prosto je bilo neefikasno pokušavati koncentrisati preveliku količinu podataka
09:15
and too much power in one place.
143
555768
2759
i previše moći na jedno mesto.
09:19
But it is not a law of nature
144
559244
4483
Međutim, ne radi se o zakonu prirode
09:23
that centralized data processing is always less efficient
145
563751
5604
da je centralizovana obrada podataka uvek manje efikasna
09:29
than distributed data processing.
146
569379
2547
od raspodeljene obrade podataka.
09:32
With the rise of artificial intelligence and machine learning,
147
572605
3437
S usponom veštačke inteligencije i mašinskog učenja,
09:36
it might become feasible to process enormous amounts of information
148
576066
5837
mogla bi da postane izvodljiva obrada ogromne količine informacija
09:41
very efficiently in one place,
149
581927
2610
veoma efikasno na jednom mestu,
09:44
to take all the decisions in one place,
150
584561
3191
da se sve odluke stave na jedno mesto
09:47
and then centralized data processing will be more efficient
151
587776
4420
i tako bi centralizovana obrada podataka bila efikasnija
09:52
than distributed data processing.
152
592220
2200
od raspodeljene obrade podataka.
09:55
And then the main handicap of authoritarian regimes
153
595053
3760
I tada bi glavni nedostatak autoritarnih režima
09:58
in the 20th century --
154
598837
1637
iz XX veka -
10:00
their attempt to concentrate all the information in one place --
155
600498
4516
njihov pokušaj da koncentrišu sve informacije na jedno mesto -
10:05
it will become their greatest advantage.
156
605038
3366
postao njihova najveća prednost.
10:10
Another technological danger that threatens the future of democracy
157
610768
4907
Još jedna tehnološka opasnost koja preti budućnosti demokratije
10:15
is the merger of information technology with biotechnology,
158
615699
5159
je spajanje informacione tehnologije sa biotehnologijom,
10:20
which might result in the creation of algorithms
159
620882
4005
a to bi moglo da rezultira stvaranjem algoritama
10:24
that know me better than I know myself.
160
624911
4316
koji me poznaju bolje nego što ja poznajem sebe.
10:29
And once you have such algorithms,
161
629688
2080
A čim dobijete takve algoritme,
10:31
an external system, like the government,
162
631792
2849
spoljni sistemi, poput vlade,
10:34
cannot just predict my decisions,
163
634665
3524
ne samo da mogu predvideti moje postupke;
10:38
it can also manipulate my feelings, my emotions.
164
638213
3921
takođe mogu da manipulišu mojim osećanjima, mojim emocijama.
10:42
A dictator may not be able to provide me with good health care,
165
642641
5245
Diktator možda neće moći da mi pruži dobro zdravstvo,
10:47
but he will be able to make me love him
166
647910
3373
ali može da učini da ga volim
10:51
and to make me hate the opposition.
167
651307
2667
i da učini da mrzim opoziciju.
10:55
Democracy will find it difficult to survive such a development
168
655037
5463
Demokratiji će da bude teško da preživi takav razvoj
11:00
because, in the end,
169
660524
2150
jer, naposletku,
11:02
democracy is not based on human rationality;
170
662698
4127
demokratija nije zasnovana na ljudskoj racionalnosti;
11:06
it's based on human feelings.
171
666849
2420
zasnovana je na ljudskim osećanjima.
11:10
During elections and referendums,
172
670355
2500
Tokom izbora i referenduma,
11:12
you're not being asked, "What do you think?"
173
672879
2696
ne pitaju vas: „Šta mislite?“
11:15
You're actually being asked, "How do you feel?"
174
675998
3396
Zapravo vas pitaju: „Kako se osećate?“
11:20
And if somebody can manipulate your emotions effectively,
175
680228
4627
A ako neko može efikasno da manipuliše vašim emocijama,
11:24
democracy will become an emotional puppet show.
176
684879
3753
demokratija će da postane emocionalna lutkarska predstava.
11:30
So what can we do to prevent the return of fascism
177
690006
4515
Dakle, šta možemo da uradimo da sprečimo povratak fašizma
11:34
and the rise of new dictatorships?
178
694545
2650
i uspon novih diktatura?
11:37
The number one question that we face is: Who controls the data?
179
697990
6310
Prvo pitanje s kojim smo suočeni glasi: ko kontroliše podatke?
11:44
If you are an engineer,
180
704823
1675
Ako ste inženjer,
11:46
then find ways to prevent too much data
181
706522
3968
onda pronađite način da sprečite da prevelika količina podataka
11:50
from being concentrated in too few hands.
182
710514
2825
bude koncentrisana u premalo ruku.
11:53
And find ways to make sure
183
713752
2944
I pronađite načine da obezbedite
11:56
the distributed data processing is at least as efficient
184
716720
4413
da raspodeljena obrada podataka bude bar jednako efikasna
12:01
as centralized data processing.
185
721157
2396
kao i centralizovana obrada podataka.
12:04
This will be the best safeguard for democracy.
186
724077
3841
To će da bude najbolji branik demokratije.
12:07
As for the rest of us who are not engineers,
187
727942
3326
Što se tiče nas ostalih koji nismo inženjeri,
12:11
the number one question facing us
188
731292
3444
prvo pitanje s kojim smo suočeni
12:14
is how not to allow ourselves to be manipulated
189
734760
4647
jeste kako da ne dozvolimo da nama manipulišu
12:19
by those who control the data.
190
739431
2806
oni koji kontrolišu podatke.
12:23
The enemies of liberal democracy, they have a method.
191
743387
4106
Neprijatelji liberalne demokratije imaju metod.
12:27
They hack our feelings.
192
747919
2372
Hakuju naša osećanja.
12:30
Not our emails, not our bank accounts --
193
750315
2452
Ne naše imejlove, ne naše bankovne račune -
12:32
they hack our feelings of fear and hate and vanity,
194
752791
5207
hakuju naša osećanja straha, mržnje i taštine,
12:38
and then use these feelings
195
758022
2428
kako bi onda koristili ta osećanja
12:40
to polarize and destroy democracy from within.
196
760474
3952
da polarizuju i unište demokratiju iznutra.
12:44
This is actually a method
197
764903
1920
Ovo je zapravo metod
12:46
that Silicon Valley pioneered in order to sell us products.
198
766847
5049
koji je prva uvela Silicijumska dolina da bi nam prodavali proizvode.
12:52
But now, the enemies of democracy are using this very method
199
772381
5022
Međutim, sad neprijatelji demokratije koriste baš ovaj metod
12:57
to sell us fear and hate and vanity.
200
777427
3724
da nam prodaju strah, mržnju i taštinu.
13:01
They cannot create these feelings out of nothing.
201
781863
3659
Ne mogu stvarati ova osećanja ni iz čega.
13:06
So they get to know our own preexisting weaknesses.
202
786212
3831
Stoga upoznaju naše postojeće slabosti.
13:10
And then use them against us.
203
790403
2571
I potom ih koriste protiv nas.
13:13
And it is therefore the responsibility of all of us
204
793482
3508
Stoga je dužnost svih nas
13:17
to get to know our weaknesses
205
797014
2634
da spoznamo naše slabosti
13:19
and make sure that they do not become a weapon
206
799672
3635
i da se postaramo da one ne postanu oružja
13:23
in the hands of the enemies of democracy.
207
803331
2883
u rukama neprijatelja demokratije.
13:27
Getting to know our own weaknesses
208
807315
2548
Spoznaja naših slabosti
13:29
will also help us to avoid the trap of the fascist mirror.
209
809887
5583
takođe će da nam pomogne da izbegnemo zamku fašističkog ogledala.
13:36
As we explained earlier, fascism exploits our vanity.
210
816204
4151
Kao što smo ranije objasnli, fašizam eksploatiše našu taštinu.
13:40
It makes us see ourselves as far more beautiful than we really are.
211
820805
5746
Zbog njega vidimo sebe kao mnogo lepše nego što zaista jesmo.
13:46
This is the seduction.
212
826575
1467
Radi se o zavođenju.
13:48
But if you really know yourself,
213
828424
2447
Ali, ako uistinu poznajete sebe,
13:50
you will not fall for this kind of flattery.
214
830895
3468
nećete pasti na ovaj vid laskanja.
13:54
If somebody puts a mirror in front of your eyes
215
834879
4063
Ako vam neko pred oči stavi ogledalo
13:58
that hides all your ugly bits and makes you see yourself
216
838966
5060
koje sakriva sve vaše ružne delove, a zbog čega sebe vidite
14:04
as far more beautiful and far more important
217
844050
4284
daleko lepšim i daleko važnijim
14:08
than you really are,
218
848358
1591
nego što zaista jeste,
14:09
just break that mirror.
219
849973
2864
samo razbijte to ogledalo.
14:13
Thank you.
220
853696
1151
Hvala vam.
14:14
(Applause)
221
854871
6382
(Aplauz)
14:22
Chris Anderson: Yuval, thank you.
222
862677
1632
Kris Anderson: Juval, hvala ti.
14:24
Goodness me.
223
864333
1151
Za ime boga.
14:25
It's so nice to see you again.
224
865958
1940
Tako je lepo videti te opet.
14:27
So, if I understand you right,
225
867922
1591
Dakle, ako sam te dobro razumeo,
14:29
you're alerting us to two big dangers here.
226
869537
2667
upozoravaš nas na dve velike opasnosti.
14:32
One is the possible resurgence of a seductive form of fascism,
227
872228
4492
Jedna je mogući novi uspon zavodljivih oblika fašizma,
14:36
but close to that, dictatorships that may not exactly be fascistic,
228
876744
4254
ali blisko tome, diktature koje možda ne bi bile baš fašističke,
14:41
but control all the data.
229
881022
2563
već bi kontrolisale sve podatke.
14:43
I wonder if there's a third concern
230
883609
2096
Pitam se postoji li treća briga
14:45
that some people here have already expressed,
231
885729
2118
koju su neki ljudi ovde već izrazili,
14:47
which is where, not governments, but big corporations control all our data.
232
887871
4897
a to su ne vlade, već velike korporacije koje kontrolišu sve podatke.
14:52
What do you call that,
233
892792
1309
Kako nazivaš to
14:54
and how worried should we be about that?
234
894125
2387
i koliko bi trebalo da budemo zabrinuti zbog toga?
14:56
Yuval Noah Harari: Well, in the end, there isn't such a big difference
235
896536
3339
Juval Noa Harari: Pa, naposletku, nema naročito velike razlike
14:59
between the corporations and the governments,
236
899899
2426
između korporacija i vlada
15:02
because, as I said, the questions is: Who controls the data?
237
902349
3420
jer, kao što sam rekao, pitanje glasi: ko kontroliše podatke?
15:05
This is the real government.
238
905793
1395
To je stvarna vlada.
15:07
If you call it a corporation or a government --
239
907212
2444
Ako to nazivate korporacijom ili vladom -
15:09
if it's a corporation and it really controls the data,
240
909680
3155
ako je korporacija ta koja zaista kontroliše podatke,
15:12
this is our real government.
241
912859
1928
to je naša stvarna vlada.
15:14
So the difference is more apparent than real.
242
914811
3067
Dakle, razlika je pre prividna nego stvarna.
15:18
CA: But somehow, at least with corporations,
243
918529
2858
KA: Međutim, nekako, bar s korporacijama,
15:21
you can imagine market mechanisms where they can be taken down.
244
921411
3519
možemo da zamislimo mehanizme tržišta kojima ih možemo svrgnuti.
15:24
I mean, if consumers just decide
245
924954
1917
Mislim, ako potrošači prosto odluče
15:26
that the company is no longer operating in their interest,
246
926895
2754
da firma više ne posluje u njihovom interesu,
15:29
it does open the door to another market.
247
929673
1913
to otvara vrata za novo tržište.
15:31
It seems easier to imagine that
248
931610
1546
Čini se da je lakše to zamisliti
15:33
than, say, citizens rising up and taking down a government
249
933180
3151
nego, recimo, građane koji ustaju i svrgavaju vladu
15:36
that is in control of everything.
250
936355
1612
koja kontroliše sve.
15:37
YNH: Well, we are not there yet,
251
937991
1555
JNH: Pa, nismo još uvek stigli dotle,
15:39
but again, if a corporation really knows you better than you know yourself --
252
939570
5158
ali, opet, ako vas korporacija zaista poznaje bolje nego što vi poznajete sebe -
15:44
at least that it can manipulate your own deepest emotions and desires,
253
944752
5254
bar da može da manipuliše vašim najdubljim emocijama i žudnjama,
15:50
and you won't even realize --
254
950030
1666
pa vi nećete čak ni biti svesni -
15:51
you will think this is your authentic self.
255
951720
2579
mislićete da ste to autentični vi.
15:54
So in theory, yes, in theory, you can rise against a corporation,
256
954768
4055
Dakle, u teoriji, da, u teoriji možete da ustanete protiv korporacije,
15:58
just as, in theory, you can rise against a dictatorship.
257
958847
3733
baš kao što, u teoriji, možete da ustanete protiv diktature.
16:02
But in practice, it is extremely difficult.
258
962982
3283
Međutim, u praksi izuzetno je teško.
16:07
CA: So in "Homo Deus," you argue that this would be the century
259
967281
4082
KA: Dakle, u knjizi „Homo Deus“ raspravljaš da će ovo da bude vek
16:11
when humans kind of became gods,
260
971387
3411
u kom će ljudi da postanu bogovi na neki način,
16:14
either through development of artificial intelligence
261
974822
2993
bilo putem razvoja veštačke inteligencije
16:17
or through genetic engineering.
262
977839
2929
ili putem genetskog inženjeringa.
16:20
Has this prospect of political system shift, collapse
263
980792
5468
Da li je ovaj vid preokreta političkog sistema, kolapsa,
16:26
impacted your view on that possibility?
264
986284
2664
uticao na tvoje viđenje te mogućnosti?
16:29
YNH: Well, I think it makes it even more likely,
265
989553
3095
JNH: Mislim da je zbog toga ona još izglednija,
16:32
and more likely that it will happen faster,
266
992672
2929
i izglednije je da će brže da se desi,
16:35
because in times of crisis, people are willing to take risks
267
995625
5023
jer u kriznim vremenima, ljudi su spremni da rizikuju
16:40
that they wouldn't otherwise take.
268
1000672
1984
kako inače ne bi.
16:42
And people are willing to try
269
1002680
2818
I ljudi su spremni da isprobaju
16:45
all kinds of high-risk, high-gain technologies.
270
1005522
3873
sve vidove visokorizičnih tehnologija sa visokim dobicima.
16:49
So these kinds of crises might serve the same function
271
1009760
4230
Dakle, ovi vidovi kriza bi mogli da posluže istoj svrsi
16:54
as the two world wars in the 20th century.
272
1014014
3214
kao dva svetska rata u XX veku.
16:57
The two world wars greatly accelerated
273
1017252
3212
Dva svetska rata su uveliko ubrzala
17:00
the development of new and dangerous technologies.
274
1020488
3612
razvoj novih i opasnih tehnologija.
17:04
And the same thing might happen in the 21st century.
275
1024124
3284
A isto bi moglo da se desi u XXI veku.
17:07
I mean, you need to be a little crazy to run too fast,
276
1027721
3897
Mislim, morate da budete malčice ludi da delujete ishitreno,
17:11
let's say, with genetic engineering.
277
1031642
2325
recimo, sa genetskim inženjeringom.
17:13
But now you have more and more crazy people
278
1033991
3110
Međutim, trenutno imate sve više ludih ljudi
17:17
in charge of different countries in the world,
279
1037125
2681
koji upravljaju različitim državama u svetu,
17:19
so the chances are getting higher, not lower.
280
1039830
3067
pa šanse postaju veće, a ne manje.
17:23
CA: So, putting it all together, Yuval, you've got this unique vision.
281
1043647
3365
KA: Dakle, da sve zaokružimo, Juval, imaš tu jedinstvenu viziju.
17:27
Roll the clock forward 30 years.
282
1047036
1587
Premotajmo sat 30 godina unapred.
17:28
What's your guess -- does humanity just somehow scrape through,
283
1048647
3263
Šta pretpostavljaš - da li se čovečanstvo nekako zamalo provlači,
17:31
look back and say, "Wow, that was a close thing. We did it!"
284
1051934
3135
osvrće se unazad i kaže: „Uh, to je bilo zamalo. Uspeli smo!“
17:35
Or not?
285
1055093
1436
Ili ne?
17:36
YNH: So far, we've managed to overcome all the previous crises.
286
1056553
3848
JNH: Do sad smo uspevali da prevaziđemo prethodne krize.
17:40
And especially if you look at liberal democracy
287
1060425
2819
A naročito ako pogledate liberalnu demokratiju
17:43
and you think things are bad now,
288
1063268
2944
i pomislite da su stvari trenutno loše,
17:46
just remember how much worse things looked in 1938 or in 1968.
289
1066236
6466
samo se setite koliko su gore stvari izgledale 1938. ili 1968. godine.
17:52
So this is really nothing, this is just a small crisis.
290
1072726
2991
Dakle, ovo uistinu nije ništa, ovo je tek mala kriza.
17:56
But you can never know,
291
1076167
1969
Ali, nikad ne možete da znate
17:58
because, as a historian,
292
1078160
2131
jer, kao istoričar,
18:00
I know that you should never underestimate human stupidity.
293
1080315
4774
znam da nikad ne bi trebalo da potcenjujete ljudsku glupost.
18:05
(Laughter) (Applause)
294
1085113
1155
(Smeh) (Aplauz)
18:06
It is one of the most powerful forces that shape history.
295
1086292
4004
Ona je jedna od najsnažnijih sila koje oblikuju ljudsku istoriju.
18:11
CA: Yuval, it's been an absolute delight to have you with us.
296
1091433
2865
KA: Juval, apsolutno je zadovoljstvo što si nam se pridružio.
18:14
Thank you for making the virtual trip.
297
1094322
1817
Hvala na virtuelnom putovanju.
Želim ti prijatno veče tamo u Tel Avivu.
18:16
Have a great evening there in Tel Aviv.
298
1096163
1873
Juval Harari!
18:18
Yuval Harari!
299
1098060
1151
JNH: Mnogo vam hvala.
18:19
YNH: Thank you very much.
300
1099235
1376
(Aplauz)
18:20
(Applause)
301
1100635
1150
About this website

This site will introduce you to YouTube videos that are useful for learning English. You will see English lessons taught by top-notch teachers from around the world. Double-click on the English subtitles displayed on each video page to play the video from there. The subtitles scroll in sync with the video playback. If you have any comments or requests, please contact us using this contact form.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7