Why fascism is so tempting -- and how your data could power it | Yuval Noah Harari

760,125 views ・ 2018-06-08

TED


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Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Tijana Mihajlović
00:12
Hello, everyone.
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Zdravo svima.
00:15
It's a bit funny, because I did write that humans will become digital,
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Malo je smešno jer sam pisao kako će ljudi da postanu digitalni,
00:20
but I didn't think it will happen so fast
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ali nisam mislio da će tako brzo da se desi
00:23
and that it will happen to me.
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i da će meni da se desi.
00:25
But here I am, as a digital avatar,
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Ali, evo me u vidu digitalnog avatara,
00:28
and here you are, so let's start.
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a eto i vas, pa zato počnimo.
00:32
And let's start with a question.
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I započnimo pitanjem:
00:34
How many fascists are there in the audience today?
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koliko fašista ima u publici danas?
00:38
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:39
Well, it's a bit difficult to say,
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Pa, malo je teško reći
00:42
because we've forgotten what fascism is.
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jer smo zaboravili šta je fašizam.
00:46
People now use the term "fascist"
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Ljudi trenutno koriste termin „fašista“
00:49
as a kind of general-purpose abuse.
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kao neki vid opšteprimenljive uvrede.
00:52
Or they confuse fascism with nationalism.
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Ili mešaju fašizam sa nacionalizmom.
00:56
So let's take a few minutes to clarify what fascism actually is,
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Zato, odvojimo nekoliko minuta da razjasnimo šta je zapravo fašizam
01:02
and how it is different from nationalism.
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i po čemu se razlikuje od nacionalizma.
01:05
The milder forms of nationalism have been among the most benevolent
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Blaži oblici nacionalizma su među najdobroćudnijim
01:10
of human creations.
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ljudskim tvorevinama.
01:12
Nations are communities of millions of strangers
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Nacije su zajednice miliona stranaca
01:17
who don't really know each other.
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koji se zaista međusobno ne poznaju.
01:19
For example, I don't know the eight million people
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Na primer, ja ne poznajem osam miliona ljudi
01:22
who share my Israeli citizenship.
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koji dele sa mnom izraelsko državljanstvo.
01:26
But thanks to nationalism,
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Međutim, zahvaljujući nacionalizmu,
01:28
we can all care about one another and cooperate effectively.
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svi možemo da brinemo jedni za druge i da efikasno sarađujemo.
01:32
This is very good.
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Ovo je veoma dobro.
01:34
Some people, like John Lennon, imagine that without nationalism,
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Neki ljudi, poput Džona Lenona, zamišljali su da bi bez nacionalizma
01:39
the world will be a peaceful paradise.
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svet bio miroljubivi raj.
01:44
But far more likely,
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Međutim, daleko je izvesnije
01:45
without nationalism, we would have been living in tribal chaos.
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da bismo bez nacionalizma živeli u plemenskom haosu.
01:50
If you look today at the most prosperous and peaceful countries in the world,
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Pogledate li današnje najprosperitetnije i najmirnije države na svetu,
01:55
countries like Sweden and Switzerland and Japan,
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države poput Švedske, Švajcarske i Japana,
02:00
you will see that they have a very strong sense of nationalism.
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videćete da oni imaju veoma snažan osećaj nacionalne pripadnosti.
02:05
In contrast, countries that lack a strong sense of nationalism,
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Nasuprot tome, države kojima nedostaje snažan osećaj nacionalne pripadnosti,
02:09
like Congo and Somalia and Afghanistan,
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poput Konga, Somalije i Avganistana,
02:13
tend to be violent and poor.
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nasilnije su i siromašnije.
02:16
So what is fascism, and how is it different from nationalism?
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Dakle, šta je fašizam i u čemu se razlikuje od nacionalizma?
02:21
Well, nationalism tells me that my nation is unique,
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Pa, nacionalizam mi kaže da je moja nacija jedinstvena
02:27
and that I have special obligations towards my nation.
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i da imam posebne dužnosti prema mojoj naciji.
02:31
Fascism, in contrast, tells me that my nation is supreme,
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Fašizam, nasuprot tome, mi kaže da je moja nacija superiorna
02:37
and that I have exclusive obligations towards it.
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i da imam isključive obaveze prema njoj.
02:42
I don't need to care about anybody or anything other than my nation.
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Ne moram da marim za bilo koga ili za bilo šta osim moje nacije.
02:48
Usually, of course, people have many identities
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Obično, naravno, ljudi imaju višestruke identitete
02:52
and loyalties to different groups.
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i odanosti različitim grupama.
02:55
For example, I can be a good patriot, loyal to my country,
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Na primer, mogu da budem dobar patriota, odan svojoj državi
02:59
and at the same time, be loyal to my family,
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i da istovremeno budem odan svojoj porodici,
03:03
my neighborhood, my profession,
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svom komšiluku, svojoj profesiji,
03:05
humankind as a whole,
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čovečanstvu u celosti,
03:06
truth and beauty.
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istini i lepoti.
03:09
Of course, when I have different identities and loyalties,
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Naravno, kada imam različite identitete i odanosti,
03:13
it sometimes creates conflicts and complications.
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to ponekad stvara sukobe i komplikacije.
03:17
But, well, who ever told you that life was easy?
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Međutim, dobro, ko vam je ikad rekao da je život lak?
03:21
Life is complicated.
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Život je komplikovan.
03:23
Deal with it.
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Nosite se s tim.
03:26
Fascism is what happens when people try to ignore the complications
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Do fašizma dolazi kada ljudi pokušaju da ignorišu komplikacije
03:32
and to make life too easy for themselves.
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i pokušaju da suviše pojednostave život za sebe.
03:36
Fascism denies all identities except the national identity
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Fašizam negira sve identitete osim nacionalnog identiteta
03:41
and insists that I have obligations only towards my nation.
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i insistira da ja imam obaveze samo prema mojoj naciji.
03:47
If my nation demands that I sacrifice my family,
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Ako moja nacija zahteva da žrtvujem moju porodicu,
03:51
then I will sacrifice my family.
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onda ću da žrtvujem moju porodicu.
03:54
If the nation demands that I kill millions of people,
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Ako nacija zahteva da ubijem milione ljudi,
03:58
then I will kill millions of people.
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onda ću da ubijem milione ljudi.
04:01
And if my nation demands that I betray truth and beauty,
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A ako moja nacija zahteva da izdam istinu i lepotu,
04:07
then I should betray truth and beauty.
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onda treba i da izdam istinu i lepotu.
04:11
For example, how does a fascist evaluate art?
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Na primer, kako fašista ocenjuje umetnost?
04:16
How does a fascist decide whether a movie is a good movie or a bad movie?
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Kako fašista odlučuje da li je film dobar ili loš?
04:22
Well, it's very, very, very simple.
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Pa, veoma, veoma, veoma je prosto.
04:27
There is really just one yardstick:
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Zaista postoji samo jedno merilo:
04:29
if the movie serves the interests of the nation,
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ako film služi interesima nacije,
04:33
it's a good movie;
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onda je to dobar film;
04:34
if the movie doesn't serve the interests of the nation,
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ako film ne služi interesima nacije,
04:37
it's a bad movie.
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onda je to loš film.
04:39
That's it.
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To je to.
04:40
Similarly, how does a fascist decide what to teach kids in school?
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Slično, kako fašista odlučuje šta treba deca da uče u školi?
04:45
Again, it's very simple.
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Opet, veoma je prosto.
04:47
There is just one yardstick:
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Postoji samo jedno merilo:
04:49
you teach the kids whatever serves the interests of the nation.
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podučavate decu bilo čemu što služi nacionalnom interesu.
04:55
The truth doesn't matter at all.
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Istina uopšte nije važna.
05:00
Now, the horrors of the Second World War and of the Holocaust remind us
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Sad, užasi Drugog svetskog rata i Holokausta nas podsećaju
05:05
of the terrible consequences of this way of thinking.
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na jezive posledice ovog načina razmišljanja.
05:10
But usually, when we talk about the ills of fascism,
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Međutim, obično kada govorimo o manama fašizma,
05:15
we do so in an ineffective way,
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radimo to na neefikasan način
05:18
because we tend to depict fascism as a hideous monster,
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jer često prikazujemo fašizam kao odvratno čudovište,
05:22
without really explaining what was so seductive about it.
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a da zaista ne objašnjavamo šta je bilo tako zavodljivo u vezi s njim.
05:27
It's a bit like these Hollywood movies that depict the bad guys --
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Pomalo liči na način na koji holivudski filmovi prikazuju negativce -
05:32
Voldemort or Sauron or Darth Vader --
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Voldemora ili Saurona ili Darta Vejdera -
05:36
as ugly and mean and cruel.
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kao ružne, zle i okrutne.
05:38
They're cruel even to their own supporters.
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Oni su okrutni čak i prema sopstvenim podržavaocima.
05:41
When I see these movies, I never understand --
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Kad odgledam ove filmove, uopšte ne razumem -
05:45
why would anybody be tempted to follow a disgusting creep like Voldemort?
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zašto bi bilo koga privlačilo da prati odvratnog ljigavca poput Voldemora?
05:52
The problem with evil is that in real life,
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Problem sa zlom je što u stvarnom životu
05:56
evil doesn't necessarily look ugly.
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zlo nužno ne izgleda ružno.
05:59
It can look very beautiful.
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Može da izgleda veoma lepo.
06:02
This is something that Christianity knew very well,
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To je nešto čega je hrišćanstvo bilo veoma svesno,
06:05
which is why in Christian art, as [opposed to] Hollywood,
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zbog čega je u hrišćanskoj umetnosti, nasuprot Holivudu,
06:08
Satan is usually depicted as a gorgeous hunk.
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Satana često prikazan kao prelepi zavodnik.
06:13
This is why it's so difficult to resist the temptations of Satan,
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Zbog toga je tako teško odoleti Sataninim iskušenjima
06:17
and why it is also difficult to resist the temptations of fascism.
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i zbog toga je takođe teško odoleti iskušenjima fašizma.
06:22
Fascism makes people see themselves
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Zbog fašizma ljudi sebe vide
06:25
as belonging to the most beautiful and most important thing in the world --
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kao pripadnike najlepše i najvažnije stvari na svetu -
06:30
the nation.
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nacije.
06:32
And then people think,
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I onda ljudi misle:
06:33
"Well, they taught us that fascism is ugly.
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„Dobro, učili su nas da je fašizam ružan.
06:37
But when I look in the mirror, I see something very beautiful,
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Međutim, kad pogledam u ogledalo, vidim nešto veoma lepo,
06:40
so I can't be a fascist, right?"
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pa ne mogu da budem fašista, zar ne?“
06:43
Wrong.
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Greška.
06:44
That's the problem with fascism.
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To je problem kod fašizma.
06:45
When you look in the fascist mirror,
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Kada pogledate u fašističko ogledalo,
06:48
you see yourself as far more beautiful than you really are.
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vidite sebe kao mnogo lepše nego što zaista jeste.
06:53
In the 1930s, when Germans looked in the fascist mirror,
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Tokom 1930-ih, kad bi Nemci pogledali u fašističko ogledalo,
06:57
they saw Germany as the most beautiful thing in the world.
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videli bi Nemačku kao nešto najlepše na svetu.
07:02
If today, Russians look in the fascist mirror,
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Ako bi danas Rusi pogledali u fašističko ogledalo,
07:05
they will see Russia as the most beautiful thing in the world.
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videli bi Rusiju kao nešto najlepše na svetu.
07:09
And if Israelis look in the fascist mirror,
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I ako bi Izraelci pogledali u fašističko ogledalo,
07:12
they will see Israel as the most beautiful thing in the world.
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videli bi Izrael kao nešto najlepše na svetu.
07:18
This does not mean that we are now facing a rerun of the 1930s.
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Ovo ne znači da smo trenutno suočeni sa reprizom 1930-ih.
07:24
Fascism and dictatorships might come back,
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Fašizam i diktature mogu da se vrate,
07:27
but they will come back in a new form,
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ali će da se vrate u novom obliku,
07:31
a form which is much more relevant
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obliku koji je daleko relevantniji
07:33
to the new technological realities of the 21st century.
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za novu tehnološku stvarnost XXI veka.
07:38
In ancient times,
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U drevna vremena,
07:40
land was the most important asset in the world.
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zemlja je bila najvažniji posed na svetu.
07:44
Politics, therefore, was the struggle to control land.
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Politika, samim tim, bila je borba za kontrolu zemlje.
07:49
And dictatorship meant that all the land was owned by a single ruler
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A diktatura je značila da svu zemlju poseduje jedan vladar
07:55
or by a small oligarch.
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ili manji oligarh.
07:57
And in the modern age, machines became more important than land.
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A u moderno vreme, mašine su postale važnije od zemlje.
08:03
Politics became the struggle to control the machines.
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Politika je postala borba da se kontrolišu mašine.
08:07
And dictatorship meant
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A diktatura je značila
08:09
that too many of the machines became concentrated
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da je preveliki broj mašina postao koncentrisan
08:13
in the hands of the government or of a small elite.
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u rukama vlade ili malobrojne elite.
08:17
Now data is replacing both land and machines
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Sada podaci uzimaju mesto zemlje i mašina
08:21
as the most important asset.
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kao najvažnijeg poseda.
08:24
Politics becomes the struggle to control the flows of data.
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Politika postaje borba da se kontroliše protok podataka.
08:29
And dictatorship now means
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A diktatura trenutno znači
08:32
that too much data is being concentrated in the hands of the government
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da je prevelika količina podataka koncentrisana u rukama vlade
08:38
or of a small elite.
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ili malobrojne elite.
08:40
The greatest danger that now faces liberal democracy
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Najveća opasnost s kojom je trenutno suočena liberalna demokratija
08:45
is that the revolution in information technology
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je to što će revolucija u informacionoj tehnologiji
08:49
will make dictatorships more efficient than democracies.
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učiniti diktature efikasnijim od demokratija.
08:54
In the 20th century,
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U XX veku,
08:56
democracy and capitalism defeated fascism and communism
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demokratija i kapitalizam su porazili fašizam i komunizam
09:01
because democracy was better at processing data and making decisions.
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jer je demokratija bila bolja u obradi podataka i donošenju odluka.
09:07
Given 20th-century technology,
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Uz tehnologiju XX veka,
09:09
it was simply inefficient to try and concentrate too much data
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prosto je bilo neefikasno pokušavati koncentrisati preveliku količinu podataka
09:15
and too much power in one place.
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i previše moći na jedno mesto.
09:19
But it is not a law of nature
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Međutim, ne radi se o zakonu prirode
09:23
that centralized data processing is always less efficient
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da je centralizovana obrada podataka uvek manje efikasna
09:29
than distributed data processing.
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od raspodeljene obrade podataka.
09:32
With the rise of artificial intelligence and machine learning,
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S usponom veštačke inteligencije i mašinskog učenja,
09:36
it might become feasible to process enormous amounts of information
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mogla bi da postane izvodljiva obrada ogromne količine informacija
09:41
very efficiently in one place,
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veoma efikasno na jednom mestu,
09:44
to take all the decisions in one place,
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da se sve odluke stave na jedno mesto
09:47
and then centralized data processing will be more efficient
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i tako bi centralizovana obrada podataka bila efikasnija
09:52
than distributed data processing.
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od raspodeljene obrade podataka.
09:55
And then the main handicap of authoritarian regimes
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I tada bi glavni nedostatak autoritarnih režima
09:58
in the 20th century --
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iz XX veka -
10:00
their attempt to concentrate all the information in one place --
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njihov pokušaj da koncentrišu sve informacije na jedno mesto -
10:05
it will become their greatest advantage.
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postao njihova najveća prednost.
10:10
Another technological danger that threatens the future of democracy
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Još jedna tehnološka opasnost koja preti budućnosti demokratije
10:15
is the merger of information technology with biotechnology,
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je spajanje informacione tehnologije sa biotehnologijom,
10:20
which might result in the creation of algorithms
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a to bi moglo da rezultira stvaranjem algoritama
10:24
that know me better than I know myself.
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koji me poznaju bolje nego što ja poznajem sebe.
10:29
And once you have such algorithms,
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A čim dobijete takve algoritme,
10:31
an external system, like the government,
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spoljni sistemi, poput vlade,
10:34
cannot just predict my decisions,
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ne samo da mogu predvideti moje postupke;
10:38
it can also manipulate my feelings, my emotions.
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takođe mogu da manipulišu mojim osećanjima, mojim emocijama.
10:42
A dictator may not be able to provide me with good health care,
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Diktator možda neće moći da mi pruži dobro zdravstvo,
10:47
but he will be able to make me love him
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ali može da učini da ga volim
10:51
and to make me hate the opposition.
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i da učini da mrzim opoziciju.
10:55
Democracy will find it difficult to survive such a development
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Demokratiji će da bude teško da preživi takav razvoj
11:00
because, in the end,
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jer, naposletku,
11:02
democracy is not based on human rationality;
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demokratija nije zasnovana na ljudskoj racionalnosti;
11:06
it's based on human feelings.
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zasnovana je na ljudskim osećanjima.
11:10
During elections and referendums,
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Tokom izbora i referenduma,
11:12
you're not being asked, "What do you think?"
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ne pitaju vas: „Šta mislite?“
11:15
You're actually being asked, "How do you feel?"
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Zapravo vas pitaju: „Kako se osećate?“
11:20
And if somebody can manipulate your emotions effectively,
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A ako neko može efikasno da manipuliše vašim emocijama,
11:24
democracy will become an emotional puppet show.
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demokratija će da postane emocionalna lutkarska predstava.
11:30
So what can we do to prevent the return of fascism
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Dakle, šta možemo da uradimo da sprečimo povratak fašizma
11:34
and the rise of new dictatorships?
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i uspon novih diktatura?
11:37
The number one question that we face is: Who controls the data?
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Prvo pitanje s kojim smo suočeni glasi: ko kontroliše podatke?
11:44
If you are an engineer,
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Ako ste inženjer,
11:46
then find ways to prevent too much data
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onda pronađite način da sprečite da prevelika količina podataka
11:50
from being concentrated in too few hands.
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bude koncentrisana u premalo ruku.
11:53
And find ways to make sure
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I pronađite načine da obezbedite
11:56
the distributed data processing is at least as efficient
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da raspodeljena obrada podataka bude bar jednako efikasna
12:01
as centralized data processing.
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kao i centralizovana obrada podataka.
12:04
This will be the best safeguard for democracy.
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To će da bude najbolji branik demokratije.
12:07
As for the rest of us who are not engineers,
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Što se tiče nas ostalih koji nismo inženjeri,
12:11
the number one question facing us
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prvo pitanje s kojim smo suočeni
12:14
is how not to allow ourselves to be manipulated
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jeste kako da ne dozvolimo da nama manipulišu
12:19
by those who control the data.
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oni koji kontrolišu podatke.
12:23
The enemies of liberal democracy, they have a method.
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Neprijatelji liberalne demokratije imaju metod.
12:27
They hack our feelings.
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Hakuju naša osećanja.
12:30
Not our emails, not our bank accounts --
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Ne naše imejlove, ne naše bankovne račune -
12:32
they hack our feelings of fear and hate and vanity,
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hakuju naša osećanja straha, mržnje i taštine,
12:38
and then use these feelings
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kako bi onda koristili ta osećanja
12:40
to polarize and destroy democracy from within.
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da polarizuju i unište demokratiju iznutra.
12:44
This is actually a method
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Ovo je zapravo metod
12:46
that Silicon Valley pioneered in order to sell us products.
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koji je prva uvela Silicijumska dolina da bi nam prodavali proizvode.
12:52
But now, the enemies of democracy are using this very method
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Međutim, sad neprijatelji demokratije koriste baš ovaj metod
12:57
to sell us fear and hate and vanity.
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da nam prodaju strah, mržnju i taštinu.
13:01
They cannot create these feelings out of nothing.
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Ne mogu stvarati ova osećanja ni iz čega.
13:06
So they get to know our own preexisting weaknesses.
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Stoga upoznaju naše postojeće slabosti.
13:10
And then use them against us.
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I potom ih koriste protiv nas.
13:13
And it is therefore the responsibility of all of us
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Stoga je dužnost svih nas
13:17
to get to know our weaknesses
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da spoznamo naše slabosti
13:19
and make sure that they do not become a weapon
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i da se postaramo da one ne postanu oružja
13:23
in the hands of the enemies of democracy.
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u rukama neprijatelja demokratije.
13:27
Getting to know our own weaknesses
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Spoznaja naših slabosti
13:29
will also help us to avoid the trap of the fascist mirror.
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takođe će da nam pomogne da izbegnemo zamku fašističkog ogledala.
13:36
As we explained earlier, fascism exploits our vanity.
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Kao što smo ranije objasnli, fašizam eksploatiše našu taštinu.
13:40
It makes us see ourselves as far more beautiful than we really are.
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Zbog njega vidimo sebe kao mnogo lepše nego što zaista jesmo.
13:46
This is the seduction.
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Radi se o zavođenju.
13:48
But if you really know yourself,
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Ali, ako uistinu poznajete sebe,
13:50
you will not fall for this kind of flattery.
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nećete pasti na ovaj vid laskanja.
13:54
If somebody puts a mirror in front of your eyes
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Ako vam neko pred oči stavi ogledalo
13:58
that hides all your ugly bits and makes you see yourself
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koje sakriva sve vaše ružne delove, a zbog čega sebe vidite
14:04
as far more beautiful and far more important
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daleko lepšim i daleko važnijim
14:08
than you really are,
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nego što zaista jeste,
14:09
just break that mirror.
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samo razbijte to ogledalo.
14:13
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
14:14
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
14:22
Chris Anderson: Yuval, thank you.
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Kris Anderson: Juval, hvala ti.
14:24
Goodness me.
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Za ime boga.
14:25
It's so nice to see you again.
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Tako je lepo videti te opet.
14:27
So, if I understand you right,
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Dakle, ako sam te dobro razumeo,
14:29
you're alerting us to two big dangers here.
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upozoravaš nas na dve velike opasnosti.
14:32
One is the possible resurgence of a seductive form of fascism,
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Jedna je mogući novi uspon zavodljivih oblika fašizma,
14:36
but close to that, dictatorships that may not exactly be fascistic,
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ali blisko tome, diktature koje možda ne bi bile baš fašističke,
14:41
but control all the data.
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već bi kontrolisale sve podatke.
14:43
I wonder if there's a third concern
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Pitam se postoji li treća briga
14:45
that some people here have already expressed,
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koju su neki ljudi ovde već izrazili,
14:47
which is where, not governments, but big corporations control all our data.
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a to su ne vlade, već velike korporacije koje kontrolišu sve podatke.
14:52
What do you call that,
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Kako nazivaš to
14:54
and how worried should we be about that?
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i koliko bi trebalo da budemo zabrinuti zbog toga?
14:56
Yuval Noah Harari: Well, in the end, there isn't such a big difference
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Juval Noa Harari: Pa, naposletku, nema naročito velike razlike
14:59
between the corporations and the governments,
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između korporacija i vlada
15:02
because, as I said, the questions is: Who controls the data?
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jer, kao što sam rekao, pitanje glasi: ko kontroliše podatke?
15:05
This is the real government.
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To je stvarna vlada.
15:07
If you call it a corporation or a government --
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Ako to nazivate korporacijom ili vladom -
15:09
if it's a corporation and it really controls the data,
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ako je korporacija ta koja zaista kontroliše podatke,
15:12
this is our real government.
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to je naša stvarna vlada.
15:14
So the difference is more apparent than real.
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Dakle, razlika je pre prividna nego stvarna.
15:18
CA: But somehow, at least with corporations,
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KA: Međutim, nekako, bar s korporacijama,
15:21
you can imagine market mechanisms where they can be taken down.
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možemo da zamislimo mehanizme tržišta kojima ih možemo svrgnuti.
15:24
I mean, if consumers just decide
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Mislim, ako potrošači prosto odluče
15:26
that the company is no longer operating in their interest,
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da firma više ne posluje u njihovom interesu,
15:29
it does open the door to another market.
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to otvara vrata za novo tržište.
15:31
It seems easier to imagine that
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Čini se da je lakše to zamisliti
15:33
than, say, citizens rising up and taking down a government
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nego, recimo, građane koji ustaju i svrgavaju vladu
15:36
that is in control of everything.
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koja kontroliše sve.
15:37
YNH: Well, we are not there yet,
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JNH: Pa, nismo još uvek stigli dotle,
15:39
but again, if a corporation really knows you better than you know yourself --
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ali, opet, ako vas korporacija zaista poznaje bolje nego što vi poznajete sebe -
15:44
at least that it can manipulate your own deepest emotions and desires,
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bar da može da manipuliše vašim najdubljim emocijama i žudnjama,
15:50
and you won't even realize --
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pa vi nećete čak ni biti svesni -
15:51
you will think this is your authentic self.
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mislićete da ste to autentični vi.
15:54
So in theory, yes, in theory, you can rise against a corporation,
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Dakle, u teoriji, da, u teoriji možete da ustanete protiv korporacije,
15:58
just as, in theory, you can rise against a dictatorship.
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baš kao što, u teoriji, možete da ustanete protiv diktature.
16:02
But in practice, it is extremely difficult.
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Međutim, u praksi izuzetno je teško.
16:07
CA: So in "Homo Deus," you argue that this would be the century
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KA: Dakle, u knjizi „Homo Deus“ raspravljaš da će ovo da bude vek
16:11
when humans kind of became gods,
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u kom će ljudi da postanu bogovi na neki način,
16:14
either through development of artificial intelligence
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bilo putem razvoja veštačke inteligencije
16:17
or through genetic engineering.
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ili putem genetskog inženjeringa.
16:20
Has this prospect of political system shift, collapse
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Da li je ovaj vid preokreta političkog sistema, kolapsa,
16:26
impacted your view on that possibility?
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uticao na tvoje viđenje te mogućnosti?
16:29
YNH: Well, I think it makes it even more likely,
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JNH: Mislim da je zbog toga ona još izglednija,
16:32
and more likely that it will happen faster,
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i izglednije je da će brže da se desi,
16:35
because in times of crisis, people are willing to take risks
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jer u kriznim vremenima, ljudi su spremni da rizikuju
16:40
that they wouldn't otherwise take.
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kako inače ne bi.
16:42
And people are willing to try
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I ljudi su spremni da isprobaju
16:45
all kinds of high-risk, high-gain technologies.
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sve vidove visokorizičnih tehnologija sa visokim dobicima.
16:49
So these kinds of crises might serve the same function
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Dakle, ovi vidovi kriza bi mogli da posluže istoj svrsi
16:54
as the two world wars in the 20th century.
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kao dva svetska rata u XX veku.
16:57
The two world wars greatly accelerated
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Dva svetska rata su uveliko ubrzala
17:00
the development of new and dangerous technologies.
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razvoj novih i opasnih tehnologija.
17:04
And the same thing might happen in the 21st century.
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A isto bi moglo da se desi u XXI veku.
17:07
I mean, you need to be a little crazy to run too fast,
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Mislim, morate da budete malčice ludi da delujete ishitreno,
17:11
let's say, with genetic engineering.
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recimo, sa genetskim inženjeringom.
17:13
But now you have more and more crazy people
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Međutim, trenutno imate sve više ludih ljudi
17:17
in charge of different countries in the world,
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koji upravljaju različitim državama u svetu,
17:19
so the chances are getting higher, not lower.
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pa šanse postaju veće, a ne manje.
17:23
CA: So, putting it all together, Yuval, you've got this unique vision.
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KA: Dakle, da sve zaokružimo, Juval, imaš tu jedinstvenu viziju.
17:27
Roll the clock forward 30 years.
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Premotajmo sat 30 godina unapred.
17:28
What's your guess -- does humanity just somehow scrape through,
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Šta pretpostavljaš - da li se čovečanstvo nekako zamalo provlači,
17:31
look back and say, "Wow, that was a close thing. We did it!"
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osvrće se unazad i kaže: „Uh, to je bilo zamalo. Uspeli smo!“
17:35
Or not?
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Ili ne?
17:36
YNH: So far, we've managed to overcome all the previous crises.
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JNH: Do sad smo uspevali da prevaziđemo prethodne krize.
17:40
And especially if you look at liberal democracy
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A naročito ako pogledate liberalnu demokratiju
17:43
and you think things are bad now,
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i pomislite da su stvari trenutno loše,
17:46
just remember how much worse things looked in 1938 or in 1968.
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samo se setite koliko su gore stvari izgledale 1938. ili 1968. godine.
17:52
So this is really nothing, this is just a small crisis.
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Dakle, ovo uistinu nije ništa, ovo je tek mala kriza.
17:56
But you can never know,
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Ali, nikad ne možete da znate
17:58
because, as a historian,
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jer, kao istoričar,
18:00
I know that you should never underestimate human stupidity.
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znam da nikad ne bi trebalo da potcenjujete ljudsku glupost.
18:05
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(Smeh) (Aplauz)
18:06
It is one of the most powerful forces that shape history.
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Ona je jedna od najsnažnijih sila koje oblikuju ljudsku istoriju.
18:11
CA: Yuval, it's been an absolute delight to have you with us.
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KA: Juval, apsolutno je zadovoljstvo što si nam se pridružio.
18:14
Thank you for making the virtual trip.
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Hvala na virtuelnom putovanju.
Želim ti prijatno veče tamo u Tel Avivu.
18:16
Have a great evening there in Tel Aviv.
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Juval Harari!
18:18
Yuval Harari!
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JNH: Mnogo vam hvala.
18:19
YNH: Thank you very much.
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(Aplauz)
18:20
(Applause)
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About this website

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