Why fascism is so tempting -- and how your data could power it | Yuval Noah Harari

翻译人员: Chloe Ma 校对人员: Elaine Liang

Hello, everyone.

大家好。

It's a bit funny, because I did write that humans will become digital,

我曾经在作品中写过 人类将会数字化，

but I didn't think it will happen so fast

但有趣的是， 我想不到它实现得这么快，

and that it will happen to me.

而且就发生在我身上。

But here I am, as a digital avatar,

我正在以数字化的方式 和各位见面，

and here you are, so let's start.

那我们就开始吧。

And let's start with a question.

先提一个问题：

How many fascists are there in the audience today?

在座的各位有多少人 是法西斯主义者？

(Laughter)

（笑）

Well, it's a bit difficult to say,

不太好说，

because we've forgotten what fascism is.

因为我们忘记了 究竟什么是法西斯主义。

People now use the term "fascist"

现在，“法西斯主义者”这个词

as a kind of general-purpose abuse.

已经被大众随意滥用，

Or they confuse fascism with nationalism.

或者说人们混淆了 “法西斯主义者” 与 “民族主义者”。

So let's take a few minutes to clarify what fascism actually is,

那么我们不妨用几分钟搞清 究竟什么是 “法西斯主义”，

and how it is different from nationalism.

以及它和“民族主义”的区别。

The milder forms of nationalism have been among the most benevolent

在人类的诸多创造中，

温和的民族主义 可谓最仁慈的那一类。

of human creations.

Nations are communities of millions of strangers

国家是由成千上万个体组成的，

who don't really know each other.

但是他们彼此间素不相识。

For example, I don't know the eight million people

举个例子，我就不认识

who share my Israeli citizenship.

另外八百万和我一样 有以色列国籍的人。

But thanks to nationalism,

但是感谢民族主义，

we can all care about one another and cooperate effectively.

我们都互相关心并且有效地合作。

This is very good.

这是很好的一点。

但是有些人，像约翰·列侬， 想象着如果没有民族主义，

Some people, like John Lennon, imagine that without nationalism,

the world will be a peaceful paradise.

世界会成为和平的天堂。

But far more likely,

但是更有可能的是，

without nationalism, we would have been living in tribal chaos.

离开了民族主义， 我们会生活在混乱的原始部落里。

If you look today at the most prosperous and peaceful countries in the world,

以世界上最繁荣 和平的国家为例，

countries like Sweden and Switzerland and Japan,

像是瑞典，瑞士以及日本，

you will see that they have a very strong sense of nationalism.

你会看到那里的人民 有很强的民族主义感。

In contrast, countries that lack a strong sense of nationalism,

相反，有些缺少民族主义感的国家，

like Congo and Somalia and Afghanistan,

像是刚果，索马里以及阿富汗，

tend to be violent and poor.

则会更加暴力与贫穷。

So what is fascism, and how is it different from nationalism?

那么究竟什么是法西斯主义？ 它和民族主义又有什么区别？

Well, nationalism tells me that my nation is unique,

民族主义告诉我， 我的国家是独特的，

and that I have special obligations towards my nation.

对于我的国家， 我有特殊的责任感。

Fascism, in contrast, tells me that my nation is supreme,

而法西斯主义告诉我， 我的国家是至高无上的，

and that I have exclusive obligations towards it.

我对它的责任感是排他性的。

I don't need to care about anybody or anything other than my nation.

除了我的国家，我不需要 关心其他任何人和事。

Usually, of course, people have many identities

通常来说，人们有许多的身份，

and loyalties to different groups.

以及对不同群体的忠诚感。

For example, I can be a good patriot, loyal to my country,

例如，我是一个爱国者， 我忠于我的国家，

and at the same time, be loyal to my family,

同时也忠实于我的家庭，

my neighborhood, my profession,

我的邻居，我的职业，

humankind as a whole,

忠于整个人类群体，

truth and beauty.

忠于真相与美好。

Of course, when I have different identities and loyalties,

当然，有了不同的身份与忠诚，

it sometimes creates conflicts and complications.

也常常会因此导致冲突和困惑。

But, well, who ever told you that life was easy?

但是，谁说人生是简单的呢？

Life is complicated.

人生很复杂，

Deal with it.

接受现实吧。

Fascism is what happens when people try to ignore the complications

法西斯主义则意味着人们 试图去忽略这些复杂的东西，

and to make life too easy for themselves.

使自己的人生过分地简单化。

Fascism denies all identities except the national identity

法西斯主义否认了所有 除了国家身份以外的身份，

and insists that I have obligations only towards my nation.

并坚持人们只对 自己的国家承担着责任。

If my nation demands that I sacrifice my family,

如果国家需要我去牺牲我的家庭，

then I will sacrifice my family.

那么我就去牺牲我的家庭。

If the nation demands that I kill millions of people,

如果我的国家需要我杀人如麻，

then I will kill millions of people.

那么我就去大开杀戒。

And if my nation demands that I betray truth and beauty,

如果我的国家需要我 背叛真相与美好，

then I should betray truth and beauty.

那我就应该去背叛真相与美好。

For example, how does a fascist evaluate art?

举个例子，法西斯主义者 怎样评估艺术作品?

How does a fascist decide whether a movie is a good movie or a bad movie?

他们怎样决定一部电影的好坏？

Well, it's very, very, very simple.

这非常，非常，非常简单。

There is really just one yardstick:

只有一个衡量尺度：

if the movie serves the interests of the nation,

如果这部电影为国家的利益服务，

it's a good movie;

那么这就是一部好电影；

if the movie doesn't serve the interests of the nation,

如果这部电影 对国家的利益没有好处，

it's a bad movie.

这就是一部烂片。

That's it.

仅此而已。

Similarly, how does a fascist decide what to teach kids in school?

与此类似，法西斯主义者 怎样决定学校给孩子教些什么？

Again, it's very simple.

还是非常简单。

There is just one yardstick:

只有一个衡量尺度：

you teach the kids whatever serves the interests of the nation.

如果你教孩子的东西 是对国家利益有利的，

The truth doesn't matter at all.

那么真相往往一点也不重要。

Now, the horrors of the Second World War and of the Holocaust remind us

二战和大屠杀的恐怖程度 提醒了我们

of the terrible consequences of this way of thinking.

这种思考方式的可怕后果。

But usually, when we talk about the ills of fascism,

但一般来说，当我们谈论 法西斯主义的弊端，

we do so in an ineffective way,

我们用的是一种无效的方式。

because we tend to depict fascism as a hideous monster,

因为我们更趋向于把法西斯主义 描绘成可怕的怪物，

without really explaining what was so seductive about it.

却对它为何吸引人只字不提。

It's a bit like these Hollywood movies that depict the bad guys --

就像是好莱坞电影 描绘的反派人物一样——

Voldemort or Sauron or Darth Vader --

伏地魔，索伦或者达斯维达——

as ugly and mean and cruel.

他们丑陋，刻薄和残忍。

They're cruel even to their own supporters.

他们甚至残忍地 对待他们的支持者。

When I see these movies, I never understand --

每当我看这些电影的时候， 我始终不能理解——

why would anybody be tempted to follow a disgusting creep like Voldemort?

为什么有人会想要去追随 伏地魔这样的大反派呢？

The problem with evil is that in real life,

问题在于现实生活中，

evil doesn't necessarily look ugly.

邪恶未必总是丑陋不堪的。

It can look very beautiful.

它也可以看上去很美好。

This is something that Christianity knew very well,

基督教非常了解这一点，

which is why in Christian art, as [opposed to] Hollywood,

和好莱坞恰恰相反， 在基督教的艺术中，

Satan is usually depicted as a gorgeous hunk.

撒旦通常被描绘成 迷人的美男子。

This is why it's so difficult to resist the temptations of Satan,

这也是为什么有时 人们很难拒绝撒旦的诱惑，

and why it is also difficult to resist the temptations of fascism.

同时，这也是为什么人们 很难去拒绝法西斯主义的诱惑。

Fascism makes people see themselves

法西斯主义使人们认为自己

as belonging to the most beautiful and most important thing in the world --

归属于世界上最美丽、 最重要的东西——

the nation.

——国家。

And then people think,

然后人们这样想，

"Well, they taught us that fascism is ugly.

“他们总说法西斯主义是丑陋的，

But when I look in the mirror, I see something very beautiful,

但是当我照镜子时， 我看到的是美丽的东西，

so I can't be a fascist, right?"

所以我不是法西斯主义者，对吧？”

Wrong.

错了。

That's the problem with fascism.

这就是法西斯主义的问题。

When you look in the fascist mirror,

当你透过法西斯主义的镜子观察自己，

you see yourself as far more beautiful than you really are.

你看到的自己比真实情况 要美好得多。

In the 1930s, when Germans looked in the fascist mirror,

20 世纪 30 年代， 当德国人看向法西斯主义的镜子时，

they saw Germany as the most beautiful thing in the world.

他们看到德国是世界上 最美的国家。

If today, Russians look in the fascist mirror,

如果今天俄国人 也看向法西斯主义的镜子，

they will see Russia as the most beautiful thing in the world.

他们将会看到俄罗斯 是世界上最美的国家。

And if Israelis look in the fascist mirror,

如果以色列看向法西斯主义的镜子，

they will see Israel as the most beautiful thing in the world.

他们会看到以色列 是世界上最美的国家。

This does not mean that we are now facing a rerun of the 1930s.

这不代表我们会重蹈 20 世纪 30 年代的覆辙。

Fascism and dictatorships might come back,

法西斯主义以及专政 的确可能会卷土重来，

but they will come back in a new form,

但是它们将以新的形式归来，

a form which is much more relevant

以一种更贴合实际，

to the new technological realities of the 21st century.

顺应 21 世纪科技现实的方式。

In ancient times,

在古代，

land was the most important asset in the world.

土地是世界上最宝贵的财富。

Politics, therefore, was the struggle to control land.

因此，政治势力一直在 争夺对土地的掌控权。

And dictatorship meant that all the land was owned by a single ruler

专政意味着所有的土地 都归属于一个统治者，

or by a small oligarch.

或者一小群寡头。

And in the modern age, machines became more important than land.

到了近代， 机器变得比土地更重要。

Politics became the struggle to control the machines.

政治方面于是开始 竞争对机器的掌控权。

And dictatorship meant

这时候的专政意味着

that too many of the machines became concentrated

大多的机器只掌握在

in the hands of the government or of a small elite.

政府或者小部分的精英手中。

Now data is replacing both land and machines

现在，数据代替土地与机器

as the most important asset.

成为了最重要的资产。

Politics becomes the struggle to control the flows of data.

政治就演变为竞争对数据流的掌控。

And dictatorship now means

现在的专政意味着

that too much data is being concentrated in the hands of the government

政府以及小部分的精英手中

or of a small elite.

控制了过多的数据。

The greatest danger that now faces liberal democracy

现在，自由民主面临的 更大的危机是，

is that the revolution in information technology

技术信息的革命

will make dictatorships more efficient than democracies.

将会使得专政比民主更加有效。

In the 20th century,

在 20 世纪，

democracy and capitalism defeated fascism and communism

民主和资本主义打败了 法西斯主义以及社会主义，

because democracy was better at processing data and making decisions.

因为民主政治可以更好地 处理数据并做出决定。

Given 20th-century technology,

鉴于 20 世纪的技术水平，

it was simply inefficient to try and concentrate too much data

试图集中大量数据 以及过多的权力

完全是低效率的做法。

and too much power in one place.

But it is not a law of nature

但这并不是自然规律，

that centralized data processing is always less efficient

集中化数据处理并不是

天然就比分布式数据处理效率低。

than distributed data processing.

With the rise of artificial intelligence and machine learning,

伴随人工智能和机器学习的崛起，

it might become feasible to process enormous amounts of information

集中处理大量的信息

可能会更加可行与高效，

very efficiently in one place,

to take all the decisions in one place,

在一个地方做所有的决定

and then centralized data processing will be more efficient

并集中化处理数据

than distributed data processing.

将会比分布式数据处理更高效。

And then the main handicap of authoritarian regimes

而独裁的政权在 20 世纪

最主要的障碍——

in the 20th century --

their attempt to concentrate all the information in one place --

即尝试集中所有信息的企图——

it will become their greatest advantage.

反而会成为他们最大的优势。

Another technological danger that threatens the future of democracy

有可能威胁未来民主政治的 另外一个技术危机

is the merger of information technology with biotechnology,

是信息技术与生物技术的合并，

which might result in the creation of algorithms

这可能会导致比我自己

that know me better than I know myself.

更加了解我的算法开始出现。

And once you have such algorithms,

一旦你有了这样的算法，

an external system, like the government,

一个外部的系统，例如政府，

cannot just predict my decisions,

不仅能猜测我的决定，

it can also manipulate my feelings, my emotions.

还可以操纵我的感受，我的情绪。

A dictator may not be able to provide me with good health care,

一个独裁者可能不会 给我提供好的医疗服务，

but he will be able to make me love him

但是他会使我开始仰慕他，

and to make me hate the opposition.

使我恨他的敌人。

Democracy will find it difficult to survive such a development

民主将会很难在这样的发展中存活，

because, in the end,

因为归根结底，

democracy is not based on human rationality;

民主政治并非基于人类的理智，

it's based on human feelings.

而是基于人类的感受。

During elections and referendums,

在竞选与公投时，

you're not being asked, "What do you think?"

你面临的问题其实并非 ”你怎么想？“

You're actually being asked, "How do you feel?"

而是 “ 你感觉怎么样？”

And if somebody can manipulate your emotions effectively,

如果有人可以 有效操纵你的情绪，

democracy will become an emotional puppet show.

民主政治将会沦为 一个情绪化的木偶戏。

So what can we do to prevent the return of fascism

那么，我们该怎样 防止法西斯主义卷土重来

and the rise of new dictatorships?

以及新专政的崛起呢？

The number one question that we face is: Who controls the data?

我们面对的首要问题是 “ 谁在掌控数据？”

If you are an engineer,

如果你是工程师，

then find ways to prevent too much data

那么就设法避免过多的数据

from being concentrated in too few hands.

集中掌握在少数人手里，

And find ways to make sure

设法保证

the distributed data processing is at least as efficient

分布式数据处理至少能和

集中数据处理一样有效。

as centralized data processing.

This will be the best safeguard for democracy.

这将是对民主政治最好的保障。

As for the rest of us who are not engineers,

对于我们这些不是工程师的人，

the number one question facing us

我们面临的首要问题是，

is how not to allow ourselves to be manipulated

我们怎样才能不被

这些掌握数据的人操纵。

by those who control the data.

The enemies of liberal democracy, they have a method.

民主政治的对手有一种套路。

They hack our feelings.

他们侵入了我们的感受，

Not our emails, not our bank accounts --

不是我们的邮箱， 不是我们的银行账号——

they hack our feelings of fear and hate and vanity,

他们侵入我们的恐惧，仇恨和虚荣，

and then use these feelings

然后利用这些感受

to polarize and destroy democracy from within.

从内部分裂和摧毁民主政治。

This is actually a method

事实上这个方法和那些硅谷先驱

that Silicon Valley pioneered in order to sell us products.

向我们推销他们的 产品的方法如出一辙。

But now, the enemies of democracy are using this very method

但是现在民主政治的对手 正在用这种方式

to sell us fear and hate and vanity.

向我们“推销”恐惧，恨意以及虚荣。

They cannot create these feelings out of nothing.

他们不能无中生有地 创造这些感觉。

So they get to know our own preexisting weaknesses.

所以他们要了解我们 原本就存在的弱点，

And then use them against us.

然后利用这些来对付我们。

And it is therefore the responsibility of all of us

因此我们大家都有责任

to get to know our weaknesses

了解自己的弱点，

and make sure that they do not become a weapon

确保它们不会成为

in the hands of the enemies of democracy.

民主政治对手的武器。

Getting to know our own weaknesses

了解我们自己的弱点

will also help us to avoid the trap of the fascist mirror.

也能帮助我们 避免法西斯主义镜子的陷阱。

As we explained earlier, fascism exploits our vanity.

就像我之前说的一样， 法西斯主义会利用我们的虚荣心，

It makes us see ourselves as far more beautiful than we really are.

使我们看到的自己 比实际上的自己更美。

This is the seduction.

这就是诱惑。

But if you really know yourself,

但是如果你真的了解你自己，

you will not fall for this kind of flattery.

你肯定不会陷入这种花言巧语。

If somebody puts a mirror in front of your eyes

如果有人给你照的镜子

that hides all your ugly bits and makes you see yourself

藏起了你所有的丑陋，

并且让你看到的自己 远比真正的你

as far more beautiful and far more important

更美，更重要，

than you really are,

just break that mirror.

那就打碎那面镜子。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

Chris Anderson: Yuval, thank you.

克里斯·安德森（克里斯）： 尤瓦尔，谢谢你。

Goodness me.

太不可思议了。

It's so nice to see you again.

很高兴再次见到你。

So, if I understand you right,

所以，如果我理解正确的话，

you're alerting us to two big dangers here.

你是在提醒大家两个重大危机。

One is the possible resurgence of a seductive form of fascism,

一个是法西斯主义有可能 以更吸引人的方式复苏，

but close to that, dictatorships that may not exactly be fascistic,

还有，专政未必等同于法西斯主义，

but control all the data.

也可能是掌握所有的数据。

I wonder if there's a third concern

我在想，如果存在第三种忧虑，

that some people here have already expressed,

这也是有在场的人已经提出的，

which is where, not governments, but big corporations control all our data.

那就是，不是政府，而是 一个大公司掌握了我们所有的数据，

What do you call that,

你怎样看待这个问题，

and how worried should we be about that?

以及针对这个问题， 我们需要担心些什么？

Yuval Noah Harari: Well, in the end, there isn't such a big difference

尤瓦尔·诺亚·赫拉利（尤瓦尔）： 说到底，公司与政府之间

between the corporations and the governments,

并没有很大的区别，

because, as I said, the questions is: Who controls the data?

因为就像我说的那样， 问题是：谁掌管着数据？

This is the real government.

这是真正的政府，

If you call it a corporation or a government --

不论你称呼它为公司还是政府——

if it's a corporation and it really controls the data,

如果这个公司真正掌管着数据，

this is our real government.

它就是我们真正的政府。

So the difference is more apparent than real.

所以这种区别比现实中更加明显。

CA: But somehow, at least with corporations,

克里斯：但是无论如何， 至少对于公司，

you can imagine market mechanisms where they can be taken down.

你可以想象， 市场机制可以把它淘汰。

I mean, if consumers just decide

我的意思是，如果消费者认为

that the company is no longer operating in their interest,

公司不再服务于他们的利益了，

it does open the door to another market.

它打开了其他市场的大门。

It seems easier to imagine that

这种情况有可能比

than, say, citizens rising up and taking down a government

公民们起义然后 推翻管理一切的政府

that is in control of everything.

更容易发生。

YNH: Well, we are not there yet,

尤瓦尔：我们还没到那个地步，

but again, if a corporation really knows you better than you know yourself --

但是，如果一个公司 甚至比你更了解你自己——

at least that it can manipulate your own deepest emotions and desires,

那至少它可以操纵 你深层的情绪和欲望，

and you won't even realize --

而你甚至不会意识到——

you will think this is your authentic self.

你会觉得这是最真实的你自己。

So in theory, yes, in theory, you can rise against a corporation,

所以理论上来说， 的确可以去对抗一个公司，

just as, in theory, you can rise against a dictatorship.

就像理论上来说， 你也能起义对抗专政制度。

But in practice, it is extremely difficult.

但是实际上，这是极度困难的。

CA: So in "Homo Deus," you argue that this would be the century

克里斯：在你的著作 《未来简史》中，你提到

when humans kind of became gods,

通过发展人工智能，

either through development of artificial intelligence

或者基因工程，

or through genetic engineering.

我们将迎来人类成为上帝的时代。

Has this prospect of political system shift, collapse

这种政治系统巨变 或崩溃的前景影响了

impacted your view on that possibility?

你对上述种种可能性的观点吗？

YNH: Well, I think it makes it even more likely,

尤瓦尔：我认为这使它更可能发生，

and more likely that it will happen faster,

而且会发生得更快，

because in times of crisis, people are willing to take risks

因为在危机的时代， 人们愿意去承担

that they wouldn't otherwise take.

平时不会去承担的风险。

And people are willing to try

并且人们愿意去尝试

all kinds of high-risk, high-gain technologies.

不同类型的高风险-高回报的技术。

So these kinds of crises might serve the same function

所以这种危机可能会与 20 世纪的两次世界大战

as the two world wars in the 20th century.

发挥相同的作用。

The two world wars greatly accelerated

这两次世界大战大幅加速了

the development of new and dangerous technologies.

具有风险性的新技术的发展。

And the same thing might happen in the 21st century.

相同的事情可能 也会发生在 21 世纪。

I mean, you need to be a little crazy to run too fast,

我的意思是，你需要变得 有点”疯狂“才能进步得更快，

let's say, with genetic engineering.

基因工程就是一个例子。

But now you have more and more crazy people

现在有更多“疯狂”的人

in charge of different countries in the world,

管理着不同的国家，

so the chances are getting higher, not lower.

所以这个几率是逐渐升高 而不是下降的。

CA: So, putting it all together, Yuval, you've got this unique vision.

克里斯：总结一下， 你的说法是很独特的。

Roll the clock forward 30 years.

将时间往后推 30 年，

What's your guess -- does humanity just somehow scrape through,

你的猜想是什么？ 如果人们挺过去了，

look back and say, "Wow, that was a close thing. We did it!"

再回顾这段时期时，是否会说， “真是千钧一发，幸好我们做到了！”

Or not?

会这样吗？

YNH: So far, we've managed to overcome all the previous crises.

尤瓦尔：目前为止，我们已经 克服了之前发生过的危机。

And especially if you look at liberal democracy

特别是当你审视 当下自由民主政治，

and you think things are bad now,

认为情况很糟，

just remember how much worse things looked in 1938 or in 1968.

只需回想 1938 年和 1968 年， 情况比起现在有过之无不及。

So this is really nothing, this is just a small crisis.

所以这真的不足为虑， 只是一个小的危机。

But you can never know,

但是谁知道呢，

because, as a historian,

作为一个历史学家，

I know that you should never underestimate human stupidity.

我知道永远不应该低估 人类的愚蠢程度。

（笑）（鼓掌）

(Laughter) (Applause)

这是塑造历史最强大的力量之一。

It is one of the most powerful forces that shape history.

CA: Yuval, it's been an absolute delight to have you with us.

克里斯：感谢你的精彩演讲

Thank you for making the virtual trip.

和为我们带来的虚拟旅行。

祝你在特拉维夫 度过一个愉快的夜晚。

Have a great evening there in Tel Aviv.

感谢尤瓦尔·赫拉利！

Yuval Harari!

尤瓦尔：非常感谢。

YNH: Thank you very much.

（鼓掌）

(Applause)