Why fascism is so tempting -- and how your data could power it | Yuval Noah Harari

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2018-06-08 ・ TED


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Why fascism is so tempting -- and how your data could power it | Yuval Noah Harari

767,575 views ・ 2018-06-08

TED


Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove ispod za reprodukciju videozapisa.

Prevoditelj: Djurdjica Ercegovac Recezent: iva m
00:12
Hello, everyone.
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Pozdrav svima.
00:15
It's a bit funny, because I did write that humans will become digital,
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Ovo je pomalo smiješno jer ja jesam pisao da će ljudi postati digitalni,
00:20
but I didn't think it will happen so fast
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ali nisam mislio da će se to dogoditi tako brzo
00:23
and that it will happen to me.
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i da će se dogoditi meni.
00:25
But here I am, as a digital avatar,
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No, evo tu sam, kao digitalni avatar,
00:28
and here you are, so let's start.
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a vi ste ovdje, pa počnimo.
00:32
And let's start with a question.
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Počnimo pitanjem.
00:34
How many fascists are there in the audience today?
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Koliko fašista ima danas u publici?
00:38
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:39
Well, it's a bit difficult to say,
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Pa, to je malo teško reći
00:42
because we've forgotten what fascism is.
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jer smo zaboravili što je zapravo fašizam.
00:46
People now use the term "fascist"
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Ljudi danas koriste izraz "fašist"
00:49
as a kind of general-purpose abuse.
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kao neku vrstu univerzalne uvrede.
00:52
Or they confuse fascism with nationalism.
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Ili fašizam brkaju s nacionalizmom.
00:56
So let's take a few minutes to clarify what fascism actually is,
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Pa, hajdemo u nekoliko minuta razjasniti što je fašizam zapravo
01:02
and how it is different from nationalism.
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i kako se razlikuje od nacionalizma.
01:05
The milder forms of nationalism have been among the most benevolent
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Blaži oblici nacionalizma su među najbenevolentnijim oblicima
01:10
of human creations.
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ljudskih kreacija.
01:12
Nations are communities of millions of strangers
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Nacije su zajednice milijuna stranaca
01:17
who don't really know each other.
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koji se zapravo ne poznaju međusobno.
01:19
For example, I don't know the eight million people
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Na primjer, ja ne poznajem osam milijuna ljudi
01:22
who share my Israeli citizenship.
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koji dijele moje izraelsko državljanstvo.
01:26
But thanks to nationalism,
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No, zahvaljujući nacionalizmu
01:28
we can all care about one another and cooperate effectively.
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mi svi možemo brinuti jedni o drugima i učinkovito surađivati.
01:32
This is very good.
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To je jako dobro.
01:34
Some people, like John Lennon, imagine that without nationalism,
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Neki ljudi, poput Johna Lennona, zamišljaju da će bez nacionalizma
01:39
the world will be a peaceful paradise.
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svijet biti miroljubivi raj.
01:44
But far more likely,
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No, mnogo je izglednije
01:45
without nationalism, we would have been living in tribal chaos.
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da bismo bez nacionalizma živjeli u plemenskom kaosu.
01:50
If you look today at the most prosperous and peaceful countries in the world,
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Ako danas pogledate najnaprednije i namiroljubivije zemlje u svijetu,
01:55
countries like Sweden and Switzerland and Japan,
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zemlje poput Švedske i Švicarske i Japana,
02:00
you will see that they have a very strong sense of nationalism.
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vidjet ćete da one imaju vrlo jak nacionalni osjećaj.
02:05
In contrast, countries that lack a strong sense of nationalism,
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Nasuprot tome, zemlje kojima nedostaje jak nacionalni osjećaj,
02:09
like Congo and Somalia and Afghanistan,
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poput Konga i Somalije i Afganistana,
02:13
tend to be violent and poor.
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imaju tendenciju nasilju i siromaštvu.
02:16
So what is fascism, and how is it different from nationalism?
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Dakle, što je fašizam i kako se razlikuje od nacionalizma?
02:21
Well, nationalism tells me that my nation is unique,
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Pa, nacionalizam mi govori da je moja nacija jedinstvena
02:27
and that I have special obligations towards my nation.
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i da ja imam posebne obaveze prema svojoj naciji.
02:31
Fascism, in contrast, tells me that my nation is supreme,
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Fašizam, nasuprot tome, govori mi da je moja nacija dominantna
02:37
and that I have exclusive obligations towards it.
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i da ja imam isključive obaveze prema njoj.
02:42
I don't need to care about anybody or anything other than my nation.
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Ja ne trebam mariti o nikomu i ničemu osim moje nacije.
02:48
Usually, of course, people have many identities
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Obično, naravno, ljudi imaju mnogo identiteta
02:52
and loyalties to different groups.
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i lojalnosti prema različitim grupama.
02:55
For example, I can be a good patriot, loyal to my country,
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Na primjer, ja mogu biti dobar domoljub, lojalan svojoj zemlji,
02:59
and at the same time, be loyal to my family,
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i u isto vrijeme biti lojalan svojoj obitelji,
03:03
my neighborhood, my profession,
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svom susjedstvu, svojoj profesiji,
03:05
humankind as a whole,
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čovječanstvu općenito,
03:06
truth and beauty.
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istini i ljepoti.
03:09
Of course, when I have different identities and loyalties,
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Naravno, kada imam različite identitete i lojalnosti,
03:13
it sometimes creates conflicts and complications.
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to ponekad stvara konflikte i komplikacije.
03:17
But, well, who ever told you that life was easy?
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No, tko vam je ikada rekao da je život jednostavan?
03:21
Life is complicated.
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Život je kompliciran.
03:23
Deal with it.
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Pomirite se s tim.
03:26
Fascism is what happens when people try to ignore the complications
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Fašizam je ono što se događa kada ljudi pokušavaju ignorirati komplikacije
03:32
and to make life too easy for themselves.
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i previše si olakšavati život.
03:36
Fascism denies all identities except the national identity
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Fašizam negira sve identitete osim nacionalnog identiteta
03:41
and insists that I have obligations only towards my nation.
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i insistira da imam obaveze samo prema svojoj naciji.
03:47
If my nation demands that I sacrifice my family,
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Ako moja nacija zahtijeva da žrtvujem svoju obitelj,
03:51
then I will sacrifice my family.
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onda ću žrtvovati svoju obitelj.
03:54
If the nation demands that I kill millions of people,
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Ako nacija zahtijeva da ubijem milijune ljudi,
03:58
then I will kill millions of people.
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onda ću ubiti milijune ljudi.
04:01
And if my nation demands that I betray truth and beauty,
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I ako moja nacija zahtijeva da izdam istinu i ljepotu,
04:07
then I should betray truth and beauty.
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onda moram izdati istinu i ljepotu.
04:11
For example, how does a fascist evaluate art?
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Na primjer, kako fašist procjenjuje umjetnost?
04:16
How does a fascist decide whether a movie is a good movie or a bad movie?
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Kako fašist odlučuje da li je neki film dobar ili loš?
04:22
Well, it's very, very, very simple.
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Pa, to je jako, jako, jako jednostavno.
04:27
There is really just one yardstick:
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Postoji zapravo samo jedno mjerilo:
04:29
if the movie serves the interests of the nation,
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ako film služi interesima nacije,
04:33
it's a good movie;
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to je dobar film;
04:34
if the movie doesn't serve the interests of the nation,
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ako film ne služi interesima nacije,
04:37
it's a bad movie.
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to je loš film.
04:39
That's it.
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To je to.
04:40
Similarly, how does a fascist decide what to teach kids in school?
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Slično, kako fašist odlučuje što učiti djecu u školi?
04:45
Again, it's very simple.
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Ponovo, to je vrlo jednostavno.
04:47
There is just one yardstick:
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Postoji samo jedno mjerilo:
04:49
you teach the kids whatever serves the interests of the nation.
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djecu učite onome što služi interesima nacije.
04:55
The truth doesn't matter at all.
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Istina uopće nije važna.
05:00
Now, the horrors of the Second World War and of the Holocaust remind us
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Užasi Drugog svjetskog rata i Holokausta podsjećaju nas
05:05
of the terrible consequences of this way of thinking.
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na užasne posljedice takvog načina razmišljanja.
05:10
But usually, when we talk about the ills of fascism,
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No, obično kada govorimo o zlu fašizma,
05:15
we do so in an ineffective way,
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mi to radimo na neučinkovit način
05:18
because we tend to depict fascism as a hideous monster,
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jer smo skloni fašizam prikazivati kao odvratnog monstruma,
05:22
without really explaining what was so seductive about it.
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bez da stvarno objasnimo što je to tako zavodljivo u njemu.
05:27
It's a bit like these Hollywood movies that depict the bad guys --
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To je pomalo kao u holivudskim filmovima koji prikazuju zločeste dečke --
05:32
Voldemort or Sauron or Darth Vader --
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Voldemorta ili Saurona il Dartha Vadera --
05:36
as ugly and mean and cruel.
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kao ružne i zle i okrutne.
05:38
They're cruel even to their own supporters.
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Oni su okrutni čak i prema vlastitim pristalicama.
05:41
When I see these movies, I never understand --
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Kada gledam te filmove nikada mi nije jasno --
05:45
why would anybody be tempted to follow a disgusting creep like Voldemort?
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zašto bi itko došao u napast da slijedi odvratnu nakazu poput Voldemorta?
05:52
The problem with evil is that in real life,
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problem sa zlom je da u stvarnom životu
05:56
evil doesn't necessarily look ugly.
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zlo nije nužno ružno naizgled.
05:59
It can look very beautiful.
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Ono može izgledati vrlo lijepo.
06:02
This is something that Christianity knew very well,
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To je nešto što kršćanstvo jako dobro zna
06:05
which is why in Christian art, as [opposed to] Hollywood,
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i zbog čega se u kršćanskoj umjetnosti, za razliku od Hollywooda,
06:08
Satan is usually depicted as a gorgeous hunk.
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Sotona obično prikazuje kao prekrasan 'komad'.
06:13
This is why it's so difficult to resist the temptations of Satan,
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To je razlog da je tako teško odoljeti njegovim iskušenjima
06:17
and why it is also difficult to resist the temptations of fascism.
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i zašto je također teško odoljeti iskušenjima fašizma.
06:22
Fascism makes people see themselves
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Fašizam djeluje na ljude tako da se oni vide
06:25
as belonging to the most beautiful and most important thing in the world --
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kao pripadnici najljepše i najvažnije stvari na svijetu --
06:30
the nation.
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nacije.
06:32
And then people think,
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I onda ljudi misle,
06:33
"Well, they taught us that fascism is ugly.
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"Pa dobro, učili su nas da je fašizam ružan.
06:37
But when I look in the mirror, I see something very beautiful,
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Ali kad pogledam u ogledalo ja vidim nešto prekrasno,
06:40
so I can't be a fascist, right?"
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stoga ja ne mogu biti fašist, zar ne?"
06:43
Wrong.
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Krivo.
06:44
That's the problem with fascism.
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To je problem sa fašizmom.
06:45
When you look in the fascist mirror,
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Kada pogledate u fašističko ogledalo,
06:48
you see yourself as far more beautiful than you really are.
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vi sebe vidite daleko ljepšim no što stvarno jeste.
06:53
In the 1930s, when Germans looked in the fascist mirror,
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Tridesetih godina, kada su Nijemci gledali u fašističko ogledalo,
06:57
they saw Germany as the most beautiful thing in the world.
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vidjeli su Njemačku kao najljepšu stvar na svijetu.
07:02
If today, Russians look in the fascist mirror,
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Ako danas Rusi pogledaju u fašističko ogledalo,
07:05
they will see Russia as the most beautiful thing in the world.
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vidjet će Rusiju kao najljepšu stvar na svijetu.
07:09
And if Israelis look in the fascist mirror,
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A ako Izraelci pogledaju u fašističko ogledalo,
07:12
they will see Israel as the most beautiful thing in the world.
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vidjet će Izrael kao najljepšu stvar na svijetu.
07:18
This does not mean that we are now facing a rerun of the 1930s.
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To ne znači da smo danas suočeni s ponavljanjem 1930.-tih.
07:24
Fascism and dictatorships might come back,
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Fašizam i diktature mogli bi se vratiti,
07:27
but they will come back in a new form,
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ali vratit će se u novom obliku,
07:31
a form which is much more relevant
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u obliku koji je puno podobniji
07:33
to the new technological realities of the 21st century.
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za nove tehnološke stvarnosti 21. stoljeća.
07:38
In ancient times,
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U drevnim vremenima
07:40
land was the most important asset in the world.
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zemlja je bila najvažnija prednost na svijetu.
07:44
Politics, therefore, was the struggle to control land.
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Politika je, stoga, bila borba za kontrolu zemlje.
07:49
And dictatorship meant that all the land was owned by a single ruler
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A diktatura je značila da je sva zemlja u vlasništvu jednog vladara
07:55
or by a small oligarch.
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ili male oligarhije.
07:57
And in the modern age, machines became more important than land.
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A u moderno doba strojevi su postali važniji od zemlje.
08:03
Politics became the struggle to control the machines.
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Politika je postala borba za kontrolu nad strojevima.
08:07
And dictatorship meant
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A diktatura znači
08:09
that too many of the machines became concentrated
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da je previše strojeva postalo koncentrirano
08:13
in the hands of the government or of a small elite.
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u rukama vlade ili malobrojne elite.
08:17
Now data is replacing both land and machines
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Danas su podaci zamijenili i zemlju i strojeve
08:21
as the most important asset.
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kao najvažnija prednost ili imovina.
08:24
Politics becomes the struggle to control the flows of data.
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Politika postaje borba za kontrolu nad tokovima podataka.
08:29
And dictatorship now means
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A diktatura sada znači
08:32
that too much data is being concentrated in the hands of the government
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da je previše podataka koncentrirano u rukama vlade
08:38
or of a small elite.
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ili malobrojne elite.
08:40
The greatest danger that now faces liberal democracy
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Najveća opasnost s kojom se danas suočava liberalna demokracija
08:45
is that the revolution in information technology
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jest da će revolucija informacijske tehnologije
08:49
will make dictatorships more efficient than democracies.
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učiniti diktature učinkovitijima od demokracija.
08:54
In the 20th century,
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U 20. stoljeću
08:56
democracy and capitalism defeated fascism and communism
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demokracija i kapitalizam porazili su fašizam i komunizam
09:01
because democracy was better at processing data and making decisions.
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zato jer je demokracija bila bolja u obradi podataka i donošenju odluka.
09:07
Given 20th-century technology,
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Uz danu tehnologiju 20. stoljeća
09:09
it was simply inefficient to try and concentrate too much data
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bilo je jednostavno neefikasno pokušavati koncentrirati previše podataka
09:15
and too much power in one place.
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i previše moći u jednom mjestu.
09:19
But it is not a law of nature
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Ali to nije zakon prirode
09:23
that centralized data processing is always less efficient
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da je centralizirana obrada podataka uvijek manje učinkovita
09:29
than distributed data processing.
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od distribuirane obrade podataka.
09:32
With the rise of artificial intelligence and machine learning,
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Napretkom umjetne inteligencije i strojnog učenja
09:36
it might become feasible to process enormous amounts of information
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možda postane izvodivo obrađivati ogromne količine informacija
09:41
very efficiently in one place,
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vrlo učinkovito na jednom mjestu,
09:44
to take all the decisions in one place,
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sve odluke donositi na jednom mjestu,
09:47
and then centralized data processing will be more efficient
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i tada će centralizirana obrada podataka biti učinkovitija
09:52
than distributed data processing.
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od distribuirane obrade podataka.
09:55
And then the main handicap of authoritarian regimes
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I onda će glavni nedostatak autoritarnih režima
09:58
in the 20th century --
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u 20. stoljeću --
10:00
their attempt to concentrate all the information in one place --
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njihov pokušaj da koncentriraju sve informacije na jednom mjestu --
10:05
it will become their greatest advantage.
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postati njihova najveća prednost.
10:10
Another technological danger that threatens the future of democracy
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Druga tehnološka opasnost koja prijeti budućnosti demokracije
10:15
is the merger of information technology with biotechnology,
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jest udruživanje informacijske tehnologije sa biotehnologijom,
10:20
which might result in the creation of algorithms
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što bi moglo rezultirati u stvaranju algoritama
10:24
that know me better than I know myself.
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koje me poznaju bolje od mene samog.
10:29
And once you have such algorithms,
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A jednom kada imate takve algoritme,
10:31
an external system, like the government,
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vanjski sustav, poput vlade,
10:34
cannot just predict my decisions,
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ne samo da može predvidjeti moje odluke,
10:38
it can also manipulate my feelings, my emotions.
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već može i manipulirati mojim osjećajima, mojim emocijama.
10:42
A dictator may not be able to provide me with good health care,
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Diktator možda neće biti u stanju osigurati dobru zdravstvenu skrb,
10:47
but he will be able to make me love him
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ali će biti u stanju postići da ga volim
10:51
and to make me hate the opposition.
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i da mrzim opoziciju.
10:55
Democracy will find it difficult to survive such a development
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Demokraciji će biti teško preživjeti takav razvoj
11:00
because, in the end,
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jer, na koncu,
11:02
democracy is not based on human rationality;
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demokracija se ne bazira na ljudskoj racionalnosti;
11:06
it's based on human feelings.
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ona se bazira na ljudskim osjećajima.
11:10
During elections and referendums,
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Za vrijeme izbora ili referenduma
11:12
you're not being asked, "What do you think?"
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ne pitaju vas, "Što mislite?"
11:15
You're actually being asked, "How do you feel?"
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Vas zapravo pitaju, "Kako se osjećate?"
11:20
And if somebody can manipulate your emotions effectively,
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A ako netko može učinkovito manipulirati vašim osjećajima,
11:24
democracy will become an emotional puppet show.
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demokracija će postati emocionalna lutkarska predstava.
11:30
So what can we do to prevent the return of fascism
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Što, dakle, možemo mi učiniti da spriječimo povratak fašizma
11:34
and the rise of new dictatorships?
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i pojavu novih diktatura?
11:37
The number one question that we face is: Who controls the data?
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Pitanje broj jedan s kojim se suočavamo je: Tko kontrolira podatke?
11:44
If you are an engineer,
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Ako ste inženjer,
11:46
then find ways to prevent too much data
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onda nađite načine da spriječite da previše podataka
11:50
from being concentrated in too few hands.
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bude koncentrirano u premalo ruku.
11:53
And find ways to make sure
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I nađite načine da osigurate
11:56
the distributed data processing is at least as efficient
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da je distribuirana obrada podataka u najmanju ruku jednako učinkovita
12:01
as centralized data processing.
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kao centralizirana obrada podataka.
12:04
This will be the best safeguard for democracy.
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To će biti najbolja zaštita demokracije.
12:07
As for the rest of us who are not engineers,
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Što se tiče nas ostalih, koji nismo inženjeri,
12:11
the number one question facing us
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prvo pitanje s kojim se mi suočavamo
12:14
is how not to allow ourselves to be manipulated
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jeste kako da ne dozvolimo da budemo manipulirani
12:19
by those who control the data.
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od onih koji kontroliraju podatke.
12:23
The enemies of liberal democracy, they have a method.
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Neprijatelji liberalnih demokracija, oni imaju metodu.
12:27
They hack our feelings.
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Oni hakiraju naše osjećaje.
12:30
Not our emails, not our bank accounts --
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Ne naše emailove, ne naše bankovne račune --
12:32
they hack our feelings of fear and hate and vanity,
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oni hakiraju naše osjećaje straha i mržnje i sujete
12:38
and then use these feelings
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i onda te osjećaje koriste
12:40
to polarize and destroy democracy from within.
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za polarizaciju i uništavanje demokracije iznutra.
12:44
This is actually a method
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To je zapravo metoda
12:46
that Silicon Valley pioneered in order to sell us products.
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koju je prva uvela Silikonska dolina kako bi nam prodala proizvode.
12:52
But now, the enemies of democracy are using this very method
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Ali sada, neprijatelji demokracije koriste tu istu metodu
12:57
to sell us fear and hate and vanity.
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da nam prodaju strah i mržnju i sujetu.
13:01
They cannot create these feelings out of nothing.
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Oni te osjećaje ne mogu stvoriti iz ničega.
13:06
So they get to know our own preexisting weaknesses.
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Zato nastoje upoznati naše vlastite prvobitne slabosti
13:10
And then use them against us.
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i onda ih iskoristiti protiv nas.
13:13
And it is therefore the responsibility of all of us
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Zbog toga je odgovornost svih nas
13:17
to get to know our weaknesses
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da spoznamo svoje slabosti
13:19
and make sure that they do not become a weapon
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i potrudimo se da one ne postanu oružje
13:23
in the hands of the enemies of democracy.
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u rukama neprijatelja demokracije.
13:27
Getting to know our own weaknesses
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Spoznavanje vlastitih slabosti
13:29
will also help us to avoid the trap of the fascist mirror.
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pomoći će nam također da izbjegnemo zamku fašističkog ogledala.
13:36
As we explained earlier, fascism exploits our vanity.
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Kao što smo ranije objasnili, fažizam eksploatira našu sujetu.
13:40
It makes us see ourselves as far more beautiful than we really are.
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On čini da sebe vidimo daleko ljepšima no što stvarno jesmo.
13:46
This is the seduction.
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To je zavođenje.
13:48
But if you really know yourself,
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No, ako stvarno poznajete sebe,
13:50
you will not fall for this kind of flattery.
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tada nećete pasti na ovu vrstu laskanja.
13:54
If somebody puts a mirror in front of your eyes
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Ako vam netko pred oči postavi ogledalo
13:58
that hides all your ugly bits and makes you see yourself
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koje skriva sve vaše ružne komadiće i čini da sebe vidite
14:04
as far more beautiful and far more important
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daleko ljepšim i daleko važnijim
14:08
than you really are,
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no što ustvari jeste,
14:09
just break that mirror.
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jednostavno razbijte to ogledalo.
14:13
Thank you.
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Hvala.
14:14
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
14:22
Chris Anderson: Yuval, thank you.
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Chris Anderson: Yuval, hvala vam.
14:24
Goodness me.
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Moj bože!
14:25
It's so nice to see you again.
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Tako je lijepo vidjeti vas ponovo.
14:27
So, if I understand you right,
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Dakle, ako sam vas dobro razumio,
14:29
you're alerting us to two big dangers here.
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vi nas ovdje upozoravate na dvije velike opasnosti.
14:32
One is the possible resurgence of a seductive form of fascism,
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Jedna je moguće ponovno oživljavanje zavodljivog oblika fašizma,
14:36
but close to that, dictatorships that may not exactly be fascistic,
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no, povezano s tim, diktatura koje ne moraju biti baš fašističke,
14:41
but control all the data.
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već kontroliraju sve podatke.
14:43
I wonder if there's a third concern
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Pitam se postoji li treća zabrinutost
14:45
that some people here have already expressed,
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koju se neki ljudi ovdje već izrazili,
14:47
which is where, not governments, but big corporations control all our data.
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slučaj kada, ne vlade, nego velike korporacije kontroliraju sve podatke.
14:52
What do you call that,
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Kako vi to nazivate
14:54
and how worried should we be about that?
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i koliko moramo biti zabrinuti u vezi s tim?
14:56
Yuval Noah Harari: Well, in the end, there isn't such a big difference
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Yuval Noah Harari: Pa, na koncu, nema tako velike razlike
14:59
between the corporations and the governments,
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između korporacija i vlada
15:02
because, as I said, the questions is: Who controls the data?
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jer, kao što sam rekao, pitanje je: Tko kontrolira podatke?
15:05
This is the real government.
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To je prava vlada.
15:07
If you call it a corporation or a government --
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Nazivate li to korporacijom ili vladom --
15:09
if it's a corporation and it really controls the data,
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ako je to korporacija i ona stvarno kontrolira podatke,
15:12
this is our real government.
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to je naša prava vlada.
15:14
So the difference is more apparent than real.
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Dakle, razlika je više prividna nego stvarna.
15:18
CA: But somehow, at least with corporations,
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CA: Ali nekako, bar u slučaju korporacija,
15:21
you can imagine market mechanisms where they can be taken down.
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možete zamisliti tržišne mehanizme kojima se one mogu srušiti.
15:24
I mean, if consumers just decide
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Mislim, ako potrošači odluče
15:26
that the company is no longer operating in their interest,
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da kompanija više ne radi u njihovom interesu,
15:29
it does open the door to another market.
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to otvara vrata jednom drugom tržištu.
15:31
It seems easier to imagine that
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Naizgled je lakše zamisliti to
15:33
than, say, citizens rising up and taking down a government
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nego, recimo, građane koji ustaju i ruše vladu
15:36
that is in control of everything.
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koji ima kontrolu nad svime.
15:37
YNH: Well, we are not there yet,
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YNH: Pa nismo još dotle stigli,
15:39
but again, if a corporation really knows you better than you know yourself --
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ali, ponovo, ako vas korporacija stvarno poznaje bolje no što vi poznajete sebe --
15:44
at least that it can manipulate your own deepest emotions and desires,
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u najmanju ruku ona može manipulirati vašim najdubljim emocijama i željama,
15:50
and you won't even realize --
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a vi to čak nećete ni znati --
15:51
you will think this is your authentic self.
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mislit ćete da je to vaša autentična ličnost.
15:54
So in theory, yes, in theory, you can rise against a corporation,
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Zato u teoriji, da, u teoriji, možete se dignuti protiv korporacija,
15:58
just as, in theory, you can rise against a dictatorship.
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kao što se u teoriji možete dignuti protiv diktature.
16:02
But in practice, it is extremely difficult.
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Ali u praksi je to izuzetno teško.
16:07
CA: So in "Homo Deus," you argue that this would be the century
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CA: U "Homo Deusu" vi tvrdite da će ovo biti stoljeće
16:11
when humans kind of became gods,
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kada ljudi na neki način postaju bogovi,
16:14
either through development of artificial intelligence
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bilo putem razvoja umjetne inteligencije
16:17
or through genetic engineering.
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ili putem genetskog inženjeringa.
16:20
Has this prospect of political system shift, collapse
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Da li je ta izglednost promjene političkog sustava, kolapsa,
16:26
impacted your view on that possibility?
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utjecala na vaš stav o toj mogućnosti?
16:29
YNH: Well, I think it makes it even more likely,
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YNH: Pa, ja mislim da je to čini čak još vjerojatnijom
16:32
and more likely that it will happen faster,
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i veća je vjerojatnost da će se dogoditi brže,
16:35
because in times of crisis, people are willing to take risks
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zato jer u vremenima krize ljudi su spremni poduzimati rizike
16:40
that they wouldn't otherwise take.
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koje inače ne bi poduzimali.
16:42
And people are willing to try
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I ljudi su spremni iskušati
16:45
all kinds of high-risk, high-gain technologies.
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sve vrste visoko-rizičnih, visoko-dobitnih tehnologija.
16:49
So these kinds of crises might serve the same function
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Dakle, takve vrste kriza možda mogu služiti istoj funkciji
16:54
as the two world wars in the 20th century.
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kao dva svjetska rata u 20.-tom stoljeću.
16:57
The two world wars greatly accelerated
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Dva svjetska rata znatno su ubrzala
17:00
the development of new and dangerous technologies.
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razvoj novih i opasnih tehnologija.
17:04
And the same thing might happen in the 21st century.
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A ista stvar bi se mogla dogoditi u 21. stoljeću.
17:07
I mean, you need to be a little crazy to run too fast,
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Mislim, morate biti pomalo ludi da prebrzo jurite,
17:11
let's say, with genetic engineering.
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recimo, s genetskim inženjeringom.
17:13
But now you have more and more crazy people
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Ali danas imate sve više i više ludih ljudi
17:17
in charge of different countries in the world,
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koji vode različite zemlje u svijetu,
17:19
so the chances are getting higher, not lower.
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pa su šanse sve veće, a ne manje.
17:23
CA: So, putting it all together, Yuval, you've got this unique vision.
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CA: Pa, uzevši sve to zajedno, Yuval, vi imate tu jedinstvenu viziju.
Pomaknimo sat 30 godina unaprijed.
17:27
Roll the clock forward 30 years.
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17:28
What's your guess -- does humanity just somehow scrape through,
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Što vi mislite -- hoće li se čovječanstvo nekako izvući,
17:31
look back and say, "Wow, that was a close thing. We did it!"
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pogledati unazad i reći, "Vau, to je bilo blizu. Uspjeli smo!"
17:35
Or not?
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Ili ne?
17:36
YNH: So far, we've managed to overcome all the previous crises.
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YNH: Do sada smo uspjeli prevladati sve prethodne krize.
17:40
And especially if you look at liberal democracy
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A pogotovo ako pogledate liberalnu demokraciju
17:43
and you think things are bad now,
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i mislite da su stvari sada loše,
17:46
just remember how much worse things looked in 1938 or in 1968.
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samo se sjetite koliko su gore stvari izgledale 1938. ili 1968. godine.
17:52
So this is really nothing, this is just a small crisis.
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Dakle, ovo stvarno nije ništa, ovo je samo mala kriza.
17:56
But you can never know,
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Ali nikad se ne zna,
17:58
because, as a historian,
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jer, kao povjesničar znam
18:00
I know that you should never underestimate human stupidity.
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da nikada ne smijete podcijeniti ljudsku glupost.
18:05
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(Smijeh) (Pljesak)
18:06
It is one of the most powerful forces that shape history.
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Ona je jedna od najmoćnijih sila koje oblikuju povijest.
18:11
CA: Yuval, it's been an absolute delight to have you with us.
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CA: Yuval, bio je apsolutni užitak biti s vama.
Hvala vam što ste poduzeli ovaj virtualni izlet.
18:14
Thank you for making the virtual trip.
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18:16
Have a great evening there in Tel Aviv.
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Želim vam ugodno veče tamo u Tel Avivu.
18:18
Yuval Harari!
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Yuval Harari!
YNH: Mnogo vam hvala.
18:19
YNH: Thank you very much.
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18:20
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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