Ramanan Laxminarayan: The coming crisis in antibiotics

105,415 views ・ 2014-11-10

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

Prevodilac: Ljiljana Ikodinovic Lektor: Mile Živković
00:12
The first patient to ever be treated with an antibiotic
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Prvi pacijent ikada lečen antibiotikom
00:16
was a policeman in Oxford.
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je bio oksfordski policajac.
00:17
On his day off from work,
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On se tokom slobodnog dana,
00:19
he was scratched by a rose thorn while working in the garden.
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radeći u bašti, ogrebao o ružin trn.
00:23
That small scratch became infected.
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Ta mala ogrebotina se inficirala.
00:26
Over the next few days, his head was swollen
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Tokom nekoliko narednih dana, čitava glava mu je bila otečena
00:29
with abscesses,
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gnojnim čirevima,
00:30
and in fact his eye was so infected
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a oko mu je bilo toliko inficirano
00:33
that they had to take it out,
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da su morali da ga izvade,
00:35
and by February of 1941,
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te je do februara 1941,
00:38
this poor man was on the verge of dying.
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ovaj jadan čovek bio na rubu smrti.
00:40
He was at Radcliffe Infirmary in Oxford,
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Bio je u ambulanti Redklif u Oksfordu,
00:43
and fortunately for him,
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i na njegovu sreću,
00:45
a small team of doctors
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mali tim lekara
00:47
led by a Dr. Howard Florey
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predvođen dr Hauardom Florijem
00:48
had managed to synthesize
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je uspeo da sintetizuje
00:50
a very small amount of penicillin,
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jako malu količinu penicilina,
00:53
a drug that had been discovered
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leka koji je 12 godina ranije
00:55
12 years before by Alexander Fleming
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otkrio Aleksandar Fleming
00:58
but had never actually been used to treat a human,
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ali koji nikada nije bio korišćen u lečenju ljudi,
01:01
and indeed no one even knew if the drug would work,
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i zaista niko nije znao ni da li će lek delovati,
01:04
if it was full of impurities that would kill the patient,
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da li je pun nečistoća koje bi ubile pacijenta,
01:07
but Florey and his team figured
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ali su Florej i njegov tim računali
01:09
if they had to use it, they might as well use it
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da ako već treba da ga upotrebe,
01:11
on someone who was going to die anyway.
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onda bolje da ga daju nekome ko će svakako umreti.
01:14
So they gave Albert Alexander,
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Tako da su Albertu Aleksandru,
01:17
this Oxford policeman, the drug,
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tom oksfordskom policajcu, dali lek
01:20
and within 24 hours,
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i tokom 24 sata,
01:23
he started getting better.
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počelo je da mu postaje bolje.
01:25
His fever went down, his appetite came back.
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Pala mu je temperatura, povratio se apetit.
01:29
Second day, he was doing much better.
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Drugog dana mu je bilo znatno bolje.
01:31
They were starting to run out of penicillin,
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Počelo je da im ponestaje penicilina,
01:33
so what they would do was run with his urine
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i oni bi sa njegovim urinom
01:35
across the road to re-synthesize the penicillin from his urine
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trčali na drugu stranu ulice, kako bi iz urina resintetizovali penicilin
01:38
and give it back to him,
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i ponovo mu ga dali,
01:40
and that worked.
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i to je dalo rezultate.
01:42
Day four, well on the way to recovery.
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Četvrtog dana, uveliko na putu izlečenja.
01:44
This was a miracle.
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To je bilo čudo.
01:46
Day five, they ran out of penicillin,
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Petog dana im je nestalo penicilina
01:50
and the poor man died.
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i ovaj nesrećni čovek je umro.
01:52
So that story didn't end that well,
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Tako da ta priča nema srećan kraj,
01:55
but fortunately for millions of other people,
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ali na sreću miliona drugih ljudi,
01:59
like this child who was treated again in the early 1940s,
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poput ovog deteta koje je lečeno ranih 1940-ih,
02:02
who was again dying of a sepsis,
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koje je umiralo od sepse,
02:05
and within just six days, you can see,
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i koje se tokom samo šest dana, kao što vidite,
02:08
recovered thanks to this wonder drug, penicillin.
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oporavilo zahvaljujući tom magičnom leku, penicilinu.
02:12
Millions have lived,
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Milioni su preživeli,
02:14
and global health has been transformed.
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i globalno zdravlje je bilo promenjeno.
02:17
Now, antibiotics have been used
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Antibioticima su lečeni
02:20
for patients like this,
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pacijenti poput ovih,
02:23
but they've also been used rather frivolously
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ali su korišćeni i prilično lakomisleno
02:25
in some instances,
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u nekim slučajevima,
02:27
for treating someone with just a cold or the flu,
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kako bi se pacijenti lečili od samo prehlade ili gripa,
02:29
which they might not have responded to an antibiotic,
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na koje antibiotici možda i nisu delovali,
02:32
and they've also been used in large quantities
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a i korišćeni su u velikim količinama
02:36
sub-therapeutically, which means in small concentrations,
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neterapeutski, što znači u maloj koncentraciji,
02:39
to make chicken and hogs grow faster.
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kako bi se ubrzao rast kokoški i svinja.
02:42
Just to save a few pennies on the price of meat,
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Samo zarad uštede od nekoliko penija na ceni mesa,
02:46
we've spent a lot of antibiotics on animals,
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potrošili smo velike količine antibiotika na životinje,
02:49
not for treatment, not for sick animals,
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ne radi lečenja, ne na bolesne životinje,
02:51
but primarily for growth promotion.
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već prvenstveno radi ubrzavanja rasta.
02:54
Now, what did that lead us to?
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I gde nas je to dovelo?
02:57
Basically, the massive use of antibiotics
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Suštinski, velika upotreba antibiotika
03:00
around the world
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širom sveta
03:01
has imposed such large selection pressure on bacteria
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je bakterijama nametnula tako oštru selekciju
03:05
that resistance is now a problem,
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da je danas problem otpornost,
03:08
because we've now selected for just
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jer smo sada selektovali
03:10
the resistant bacteria.
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samo otporne bakterije.
03:11
And I'm sure you've all read about this in the newspapers,
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Siguran sam da ste svi o ovome čitali u novinama,
03:14
you've seen this in every magazine
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videli u svakom magazinu
03:16
that you come across,
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na koji ste naišli,
03:18
but I really want you to appreciate
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ali zaista želim da pravilno shvatite
03:20
the significance of this problem.
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značaj ovog problema.
03:22
This is serious.
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Ovo je ozbiljno.
03:23
The next slide I'm about to show you is of carbapenem resistance in acinetobacter.
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Sledeći slajd koji ću vam pokazati je otpornost acinetobaktera na karbapenem.
03:28
Acinetobacter is a nasty hospital bug,
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Acinetobakter je opasan bolnički bacil,
03:31
and carbapenem is pretty much
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a karbapenem je gotovo
03:32
the strongest class of antibiotics
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najjača klasa antibiotika
03:34
that we can throw at this bug.
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kojom bismo mogli da ga napadnemo.
03:36
And you can see in 1999
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I vidite 1999.
03:39
this is the pattern of resistance,
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ovo je model otpornosti,
03:42
mostly under about 10 percent across the United States.
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uglavnom ispod 10 procenata širom Sjedinjenih Država.
03:45
Now watch what happens when we play the video.
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A sada pogledajte šta se dešava kada pustimo video.
03:58
So I don't know where you live,
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Ne znam gde živite,
04:00
but wherever it is, it certainly is a lot worse now
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ali gde god to bilo, sada je sigurno daleko lošije
04:03
than it was in 1999,
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nego što je bilo 1999,
04:05
and that is the problem of antibiotic resistance.
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i to je problem otpornosti na antibiotike.
04:09
It's a global issue
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To je globalno pitanje
04:11
affecting both rich and poor countries,
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koje pogađa i bogate i siromašne zemlje,
04:14
and at the heart of it, you might say, well,
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možda ćete reći, pa suštinski,
04:16
isn't this really just a medical issue?
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zar to nije zapravo medicinski problem?
04:18
If we taught doctors how not to use antibiotics as much,
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Ukoliko naučimo lekare da ne koriste tako mnogo antibiotike,
04:20
if we taught patients how not to demand antibiotics,
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ukoliko naučimo pacijente da ih ne traže,
04:23
perhaps this really wouldn't be an issue,
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možda to zaista i ne bi bio problem,
04:25
and maybe the pharmaceutical companies
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i možda bi farmaceutske kompanije
04:27
should be working harder to develop
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trebale da rade napornije
04:28
more antibiotics.
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na razvijanju novih antibiotika.
04:30
Now, it turns out that there's something fundamental about antibiotics
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Ispostavilo se da je kod antibiotika nešto temeljno drugačije
04:33
which makes it different from other drugs,
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nego kod drugih lekova,
04:35
which is that if I misuse antibiotics
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a to je da moje zloupotrebljavanje
04:37
or I use antibiotics,
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ili upotrebljavanje antibiotika,
04:39
not only am I affected but others are affected as well,
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neće samo uticati na mene, već i na druge,
04:43
in the same way as if I choose to drive to work
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baš kao i moja odluka da na posao idem kolima
04:45
or take a plane to go somewhere,
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ili da nekuda letim avionom,
04:48
that the costs I impose on others
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cena koju drugima namećem
04:50
through global climate change go everywhere,
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kroz globalnu promenu klime ide svuda,
04:52
and I don't necessarily take these costs into consideration.
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a nije izvesno da tu cenu uzimam u razmatranje.
04:55
This is what economists might call a problem of the commons,
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To je ono što bi ekonomisti mogli nazvati problemom zajedničkih dobara
04:58
and the problem of the commons is exactly
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a problem zajedničkih dobara
05:00
what we face in the case of antibiotics as well:
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je upravo ono sa čime se suočavamo i u slučaju antibiotika:
05:02
that we don't consider —
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da mi ne uzimamo u obzir -
05:04
and we, including individuals, patients,
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a "mi" uključuje: pojedince, pacijente,
05:07
hospitals, entire health systems —
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bolnice, čitave zdravstvene sisteme -
05:11
do not consider the costs that they impose on others
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ne uzimamo u obzir cenu koju namećemo drugima
05:13
by the way antibiotics are actually used.
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načinom na koji se koriste antibiotici.
05:15
Now, that's a problem that's similar
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To je problem sličan
05:17
to another area that we all know about,
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drugoj oblasti koju svi poznajemo,
05:19
which is of fuel use and energy,
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a to je korišćenje goriva i energije,
05:21
and of course energy use
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i naravno korišćenje energije
05:23
both depletes energy as well as
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crpi energiju
05:26
leads to local pollution and climate change.
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i vodi ka lokalnom zagađenju i klimatskim promenama.
05:29
And typically, in the case of energy,
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A u slučaju energije, tipično
05:31
there are two ways in which you can deal with the problem.
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postoje dva načina na koja možete da se nosite sa problemom.
05:33
One is, we can make better use of the oil that we have,
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Prvi je da bolje koristimo naftu koju imamo,
05:37
and that's analogous to making better use
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što je istovetno boljoj upotrebi
05:39
of existing antibiotics,
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postojećih antibiotika,
05:41
and we can do this in a number of ways
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i to možemo da činimo na različite načine
05:42
that we'll talk about in a second,
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o kojima ćemo uskoro govoriti,
05:45
but the other option is the "drill, baby, drill" option,
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a druga mogućnost je: "drill, baby, drill" opcija,
05:48
which in the case of antibiotics is to go find new antibiotics.
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što u slučaju antibiotika znači pronalaženje novih antibiotika.
05:53
Now, these are not separate.
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Ovo nije razdvojivo.
05:55
They're related, because if we invest heavily
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Povezano je, jer ukoliko značajno investiramo
05:58
in new oil wells,
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u nova naftna polja,
06:00
we reduce the incentives for conservation of oil
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smanjujemo podstrek očuvanju nafte
06:03
in the same way that's going to happen for antibiotics.
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na isti način koji će se dogoditi u slučaju antibiotika.
06:06
The reverse is also going to happen, which is that
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Dogodiće se i obrnuti slučaj,
06:08
if we use our antibiotics appropriately,
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da ukoliko antibiotike koristimo na odgovarajući način,
06:10
we don't necessarily have to make the investments
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ne moramo nužno da investiramo
06:13
in new drug development.
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u razvijanje novih lekova.
06:15
And if you thought that these two were entirely,
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I ukoliko ste mislili da su ove dve mogućnosti
06:18
fully balanced between these two options,
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u potpunosti uravnotežene,
06:20
you might consider the fact that
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možete uzeti u obzir činjenicu
06:22
this is really a game that we're playing.
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da je to zapravo igra koju igramo.
06:24
The game is really one of coevolution,
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To je igra koevolucije,
06:27
and coevolution is, in this particular picture,
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a koevolucija je, na ovoj konkretnoj fotografiji
06:30
between cheetahs and gazelles.
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između geparda i gazela.
06:32
Cheetahs have evolved to run faster,
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Gepard je evoluirao da brže trči,
06:34
because if they didn't run faster,
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jer ukoliko ne trči brže,
06:35
they wouldn't get any lunch.
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neće dobiti ručak.
06:37
Gazelles have evolved to run faster because
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Gazele su evoluirale da trče brže
06:40
if they don't run faster, they would be lunch.
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jer ukoliko ne trče brže, postaće ručak.
06:43
Now, this is the game we're playing against the bacteria,
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Dakle, ovo je igra koju igramo sa bakterijama,
06:46
except we're not the cheetahs,
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izuzev što mi nismo gepardi,
06:48
we're the gazelles,
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mi smo gazele,
06:49
and the bacteria would,
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i bakterija bi,
06:52
just in the course of this little talk,
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samo tokom ovog kratkog govora,
06:54
would have had kids and grandkids
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dobila decu i unuke
06:55
and figured out how to be resistant
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i shvatila kako da bude otporna
06:58
just by selection and trial and error,
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samo selekcijom i proverom raznih mogućnosti,
07:00
trying it over and over again.
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upornim pokušavanjem.
07:02
Whereas how do we stay ahead of the bacteria?
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A kako da preduhitrimo bakteriju?
07:06
We have drug discovery processes,
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Imamo procese otkrivanja lekova,
07:08
screening molecules,
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ispitivanje molekula,
07:10
we have clinical trials,
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imamo klinička testiranja,
07:11
and then, when we think we have a drug,
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a onda, kada mislimo da imamo lek,
07:14
then we have the FDA regulatory process.
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tada imamo regulatorni proces Uprave za hranu i lekove (FDA)
07:17
And once we go through all of that,
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I kada jednom prođemo kroz sve to,
07:20
then we try to stay one step ahead
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tada pokušavamo da budemo
07:22
of the bacteria.
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korak ispred bakterije.
07:24
Now, this is clearly not a game that can be sustained,
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Jasno je da ovo nije održiva igra,
07:27
or one that we can win
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ili igra u kojoj možemo da pobedimo
07:28
by simply innovating to stay ahead.
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koristeći samo inovaciju.
07:30
We've got to slow the pace of coevolution down,
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Moramo da usporimo ritam koevolucije,
07:33
and there are ideas that we can borrow from energy
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a postoje ideje koje možemo da pozajmimo od energetike,
07:37
that are helpful in thinking about
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i koje su korisne u razmišljanjima
07:39
how we might want to do this in the case
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o tome kako da postupimo
07:40
of antibiotics as well.
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i u slučaju antibiotika.
07:42
Now, if you think about how we deal with
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Ukoliko razmislite o tome kako formiramo
07:44
energy pricing, for instance,
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cene energenata, na primer,
07:45
we consider emissions taxes,
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mi uračunavamo takse za zagađenje,
07:47
which means we're imposing the costs of pollution
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što znači da cenu zagađenja naplaćujemo
07:50
on people who actually use that energy.
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ljudima koji koriste tu energiju.
07:53
We might consider doing that for antibiotics as well,
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Mogli bismo da razmislimo da isto učinimo sa antibioticima,
07:56
and perhaps that would make sure that antibiotics
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i možda bi to obezbedilo
07:58
actually get used appropriately.
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odgovarajuću upotrebu antibiotika.
08:01
There are clean energy subsidies,
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Postoje subvencije za čistu energiju,
08:03
which are to switch to fuels which don't pollute as much
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što znači prelazak na korišćenje goriva koja manje zagađuju
08:06
or perhaps don't need fossil fuels.
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ili koja nisu fosilna goriva.
08:09
Now, the analogy here is, perhaps we need
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Ovde je analogija da možda treba
08:11
to move away from using antibiotics,
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da manje koristimo antibiotike
08:14
and if you think about it, what are good substitutes for antibiotics?
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3716
i ako o tome razmislite, koja je dobra alternativa antibioticima?
08:17
Well, turns out that anything that reduces
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2164
Pa, ispada da bi delovalo sve što smanjuje
08:20
the need for the antibiotic would really work,
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potrebu za upotrebom antibiotika,
08:22
so that could include improving hospital infection control
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3142
a to uključuje i poboljšanje kontrole bolničkih infekcija
08:25
or vaccinating people,
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2895
ili vakcinisanje,
08:28
particularly against the seasonal influenza.
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2297
naročito protiv sezonskog gripa.
08:30
And the seasonal flu is probably
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2531
A sezonski grip je verovatno
08:33
the biggest driver of antibiotic use,
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3004
najveći pokretač upotrebe antibiotika,
08:36
both in this country as well as in many other countries,
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2919
kako u ovoj tako i u mnogim drugim zemljama,
08:39
and that could really help.
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2020
i to bi zaista moglo da pomogne.
08:41
A third option might include something like tradeable permits.
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4103
A treća mogućnost bi mogla da uključi nešto poput dozvola koje bi se prodavale.
08:45
And these seem like faraway scenarios,
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4246
A one se čine poput jako udaljenih mogućnosti,
08:49
but if you consider the fact that we might not
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2427
ali ukoliko uzmete u obzir činjenicu da možda
08:51
have antibiotics for many people who have infections,
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3383
nećemo imati antibiotike za mnoge ljude sa infekcijama,
08:55
we might consider the fact that we might
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2237
možda treba da razmislimo o tome
08:57
want to allocate who actually gets to use
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2311
da bismo možda želeli da odredimo ko će
08:59
some of these antibiotics over others,
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2714
koristiti koje antibiotike,
09:02
and some of these might have to be on the basis of clinical need,
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3326
i neke od ovih odluka će biti zasnovane na kliničkim potrebama,
09:05
but also on the basis of pricing.
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545898
1935
ali i na osnovu cene.
09:07
And certainly consumer education works.
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1910
I svakako da obrazovanje potrošača daje rezultate.
09:09
Very often, people overuse antibiotics
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2601
Vrlo često ljudi prekomerno koriste antibiotike
09:12
or prescribe too much without necessarily
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2277
ili ih previše prepisuju
09:14
knowing that they do so,
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1606
a da toga nisu svesni, tako da su se
09:16
and feedback mechanisms
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1431
mehanizmi informisanja
09:17
have been found to be useful,
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557658
1902
pokazali korisnima,
09:19
both on energy —
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1929
kao i kod energije -
09:21
When you tell someone that they're using
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1540
kada nakome kažete da koristi
09:23
a lot of energy during peak hour,
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563029
1917
previše energije u udarnom terminu,
09:24
they tend to cut back,
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564946
1470
on obično smanjuje potrošnju,
09:26
and the same sort of example has been performed
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1767
a slični primeri su korišćeni
09:28
even in the case of antibiotics.
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568183
1810
čak i u slučaju antibiotika.
09:29
A hospital in St. Louis basically would put up
221
569993
1981
Bolnica u Sent Luisu bi istakla grafikon
09:31
on a chart the names of surgeons
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571974
4192
sa imenima hirurga
09:36
in the ordering of how much antibiotics they'd used
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576166
2219
rangiranih po upotrebi antibiotika
09:38
in the previous month,
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578385
1944
tokom prethodnog meseca,
09:40
and this was purely an informational feedback,
225
580329
2342
ovo je bilo čisto informativne prirode,
09:42
there was no shaming,
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1183
nije bilo okrivljavanja,
09:43
but essentially that provided some information back
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583854
2135
ali je hirurzima pružalo informaciju
09:45
to surgeons that maybe they could rethink
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585989
1954
da bi možda mogli da razmisle
09:47
how they were using antibiotics.
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587943
2229
o tome kako koriste antibiotike.
09:50
Now, there's a lot that can be done
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2014
Mnogo toga može da se uradi
09:52
on the supply side as well.
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2149
i na polju snabdevanja.
09:54
If you look at the price of penicillin,
232
594335
1777
Ukoliko pogledate cenu penicilina,
09:56
the cost per day is about 10 cents.
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1651
dnevni trošak iznosi 10 centi.
09:57
It's a fairly cheap drug.
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1758
To je prilično jeftin lek.
09:59
If you take drugs that have been introduced since then —
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2137
Ukoliko posmatrate lekove koji su uvedeni kasnije
10:01
linezolid or daptomycin —
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2644
poput linezolida i daptomicina,
10:04
those are significantly more expensive,
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604302
1878
oni su daleko skuplji,
10:06
so to a world that has been used to paying 10 cents a day for antibiotics,
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5451
tako da bi se svetu, naviknutom da dnevno za antibiotike plaća 10 centi,
10:11
the idea of paying 180 dollars per day
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611633
2530
dnevni trošak od 180 dolara
10:14
seems like a lot.
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614163
1567
učinio veoma visokim.
10:15
But what is that really telling us?
241
615730
1987
Ali šta nam to zaista govori?
10:17
That price is telling us
242
617717
1965
Ta cena nam govori
10:19
that we should no longer
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619682
1898
da više ne treba da, u doglednoj budućnosti,
10:21
take cheap, effective antibiotics as a given
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4117
jeftin i delotvoran antibiotik uzimamo zdravo za gotovo
10:25
into the foreseeable future,
245
625697
1767
10:27
and that price is a signal to us
246
627464
2530
a ta cena nam poručuje
10:29
that perhaps we need to be paying
247
629994
1609
da bismo možda trebali
10:31
much more attention to conservation.
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2553
da mnogo više obratimo pažnju na očuvanje.
10:34
That price is also a signal
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634156
2704
Ova cena nam takođe poručuje
10:36
that maybe we need to start looking at other technologies,
250
636860
2875
da bismo možda trebali da se okrenemo drugim tehnologijama,
10:39
in the same way that gasoline prices are a signal
251
639735
2652
baš kao što je cena goriva signal
10:42
and an impetus, to, say,
252
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2590
i takoreći, podsticaj
10:44
the development of electric cars.
253
644977
1868
razvoju električnih automobila.
10:46
Prices are important signals
254
646845
1777
Cene su značajni pokazatelji
10:48
and we need to pay attention,
255
648622
1586
i na njih moramo da obratimo pažnju,
10:50
but we also need to consider the fact that
256
650208
2452
ali u obzir moramo da uzmemo i činjenicu
10:52
although these high prices seem unusual for antibiotics,
257
652660
4252
da iako se ove cene čine neobično visokim za antibiotike,
10:56
they're nothing compared to the price per day
258
656912
2239
one su ništavne u poređenju sa dnevnim troškom
10:59
of some cancer drugs,
259
659151
1384
nekih lekova protiv karcinoma,
11:00
which might save a patient's life only for a few months or perhaps a year,
260
660535
3370
koji pacijentu produžavaju život za samo nekoliko meseci ili godinu dana,
11:03
whereas antibiotics would potentially
261
663905
1770
dok antibiotici imaju mogućnost
11:05
save a patient's life forever.
262
665675
1826
da pacijentu spasu život.
11:07
So this is going to involve
263
667501
1319
Tako da će ovo uključiti
11:08
a whole new paradigm shift,
264
668820
1962
i potpuno novu promenu ugla posmatranja,
11:10
and it's also a scary shift because
265
670782
1856
a to će biti i zastrašujuća promena
11:12
in many parts of this country,
266
672638
2329
jer je u mnogim delovima ove zemlje,
11:14
in many parts of the world,
267
674967
1744
kao i u mnogim delovima sveta,
11:16
the idea of paying 200 dollars
268
676711
2069
ideja o plaćanju 200 dolara
11:18
for a day of antibiotic treatment
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678780
2891
za dan lečenja antibioticima
11:21
is simply unimaginable.
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681671
2542
jednostavno nezamisliva.
11:24
So we need to think about that.
271
684213
1734
Tako da o ovome moramo da razmislimo.
11:25
Now, there are backstop options,
272
685947
1813
Postoje i poslednje mere
11:27
which is other alternative technologies
273
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2676
a to su druge alternativne tehnologije
11:30
that people are working on.
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690436
1194
na kojima se radi.
11:31
It includes bacteriophages, probiotics,
275
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2652
One uključuju bakteriofage, probiotike,
11:34
quorum sensing, synbiotics.
276
694282
4048
osećaj kvoruma, sinbiotike.
11:38
Now, all of these are useful avenues to pursue,
277
698330
3039
To su sve korisna istraživanja,
11:41
and they will become even more lucrative
278
701369
2610
i ona će postati još unosnija
11:43
when the price of new antibiotics starts going higher,
279
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3081
kada cena novih antibiotika počne da raste,
11:47
and we've seen that the market does actually respond,
280
707060
2897
i vidimo da tržište zaista reaguje,
11:49
and the government is now considering
281
709957
2008
tako da Vlada sada razmatra
11:51
ways of subsidizing new antibiotics and development.
282
711965
3767
načine na koje bi mogla da dotira razvijanje novih antibiotika.
11:55
But there are challenges here.
283
715732
1723
Ali, ovde postoje i izazovi.
Ne želimo da samo trošimo velike količine novca.
11:57
We don't want to just throw money at a problem.
284
717455
1575
11:59
What we want to be able to do
285
719030
1519
Želimo da budemo u mogućnosti
12:00
is invest in new antibiotics
286
720549
2279
da investiramo u nove antibiotike
12:02
in ways that actually encourage
287
722828
2976
na način koji podstiče
12:05
appropriate use and sales of those antibiotics,
288
725804
3020
odgovarajuću upotrebu i prodaju ovih antibiotika,
12:08
and that really is the challenge here.
289
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2463
i tu leži izazov.
12:11
Now, going back to these technologies,
290
731287
2329
Vratimo se na ove tehnologije,
12:13
you all remember the line from that famous
291
733616
2363
svi se sećate rečenice iz onog poznatog
12:15
dinosaur film, "Nature will find a way."
292
735979
2226
filma o dinosaurusima: "Priroda će pronači način".
12:18
So it's not as if these are permanent solutions.
293
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3319
Tako da to nisu trajna rešenja.
12:21
We really have to remember that, whatever the technology might be,
294
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4086
Moramo da upamtimo da, kakva god bila ta tehnologija,
12:25
that nature will find some way to work around it.
295
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2876
priroda će pronaći način da se izbori sa njom.
12:28
You might think, well, this is just a problem
296
748486
2071
Možete pomisliti, pa to je samo problem
12:30
just with antibiotics and with bacteria,
297
750557
2744
vezan za antibiotike i bakterije,
12:33
but it turns out that we have the exact same
298
753301
1946
ali ispostavilo se da imamo potpuno isti,
12:35
identical problem in many other fields as well,
299
755247
2734
identičan problem i u mnogim drugim oblastima,
12:37
with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis,
300
757981
2952
sa tuberkulozom otpornom na višestruke lekove,
12:40
which is a serious problem in India and South Africa.
301
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3562
što je ozbiljan problem u Indiji i Južnoj Africi.
12:44
Thousands of patients are dying because
302
764495
1787
Hiljade pacijenata umire
jer je cena lekova druge linije jako visoka,
12:46
the second-line drugs are so expensive,
303
766282
1834
12:48
and in some instances, even those don't work
304
768116
2227
a u nekim slučajevima, čak ni oni ne deluju
12:50
and you have XDR TB.
305
770343
2070
i imamo multirezistentnu tuberkulozu.
12:52
Viruses are becoming resistant.
306
772413
1811
Virusi postaju otporni.
12:54
Agricultural pests. Malaria parasites.
307
774224
3166
Poljoprivredne štetočine, malarijski paraziti.
12:57
Right now, much of the world depends on
308
777390
1783
Trenutno se veći deo sveta
12:59
one drug, artemisinin drugs,
309
779173
3697
za lečenje malarije suštinski
13:02
essentially to treat malaria.
310
782870
1956
oslanja na jedan lek: artemisinin.
13:04
Resistance to artemisinin has already emerged,
311
784826
2587
Otpornost na artemisinin se već pojavila,
13:07
and if this were to become widespread,
312
787413
2354
i ukoliko se ona raširi,
13:09
that puts at risk
313
789767
1348
ugroziće jedini lek
13:11
the single drug that we have to treat malaria around the world
314
791115
2891
kojim malariju lečimo širom sveta
13:14
in a way that's currently safe and efficacious.
315
794006
3214
na sada bezbedan i efikasan način.
13:17
Mosquitos develop resistance.
316
797220
1798
Komarci postaju otporni.
Ukoliko imate decu, onda verovatno znate o vaškama,
13:19
If you have kids, you probably know about head lice,
317
799018
2237
13:21
and if you're from New York City,
318
801255
1713
a ukoliko ste iz Njujorka,
13:22
I understand that the specialty there is bedbugs.
319
802968
2733
tamo su, koliko shvatam, specijalnost stenice.
13:25
So those are also resistant.
320
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2255
I one su otporne.
13:27
And we have to bring an example from across the pond.
321
807956
2879
Treba da damo primer i sa druge strane okeana.
13:30
Turns out that rats are also resistant to poisons.
322
810835
2355
Ispostavilo se da su i pacovi otporni na otrove.
13:33
Now, what's common to all of these things is
323
813190
2701
Ono što je svemu ovome zajedničko je
13:35
the idea that we've had these technologies
324
815891
2706
poimanje da mi sve ove tehnologije
13:38
to control nature only for the last 70, 80 or 100 years
325
818597
4621
kojima kontrolišemo prirodu posedujemo tek poslednjih 70, 80 ili 100 godina
13:43
and essentially in a blink,
326
823218
3028
a gotovo smo u trenutku,
13:46
we have squandered our ability to control,
327
826246
2551
prokockali tu mogućnost da kontrolišemo,
13:48
because we have not recognized
328
828797
2491
jer nismo uvideli
13:51
that natural selection and evolution was going to find
329
831288
2812
da će prirodna selekcija i evolucija pronaći način
13:54
a way to get back,
330
834100
1174
da uzvrate udarac,
13:55
and we need to completely rethink
331
835274
2049
i moramo da ponovo temeljno razmislimo
13:57
how we're going to use
332
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2343
o tome kako ćemo koristiti
13:59
measures to control biological organisms,
333
839666
3094
mere kojima kontrolišemo biološke organizme,
14:02
and rethink how we incentivize
334
842760
3464
i kako podstičemo
14:06
the development, introduction,
335
846224
2226
razvoj, uvođenje
14:08
in the case of antibiotics prescription,
336
848450
2668
u slučaju antibiotika prepisivanje,
14:11
and use of these valuable resources.
337
851118
3772
i korišćenje ovih dragocenih resursa.
14:14
And we really now need to start thinking about them
338
854890
2380
I sada zaista moramo da počnemo o njima da razmišljamo
14:17
as natural resources.
339
857270
1958
kao o prirodnim resursima.
14:19
And so we stand at a crossroads.
340
859228
2238
Mi se nalazimo na raskršću.
14:21
An option is to go through that rethinking
341
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3159
Jedna mogućnosti je da razmislimo
14:24
and carefully consider incentives
342
864625
1813
i pažljivo razmotrimo olakšice
14:26
to change how we do business.
343
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2554
kojima ćemo da promenimo način rada.
14:28
The alternative is
344
868992
2261
Alternativa je svet
14:31
a world in which even a blade of grass
345
871253
3083
u kojem čak i vlat trave
14:34
is a potentially lethal weapon.
346
874336
2429
može biti ubojito oružje.
14:36
Thank you.
347
876765
1800
Hvala.
14:38
(Applause)
348
878565
2735
(Aplauz)
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