Ramanan Laxminarayan: The coming crisis in antibiotics

105,415 views ・ 2014-11-10

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譯者: Yamei Huang 審譯者: Regina Chu
00:12
The first patient to ever be treated with an antibiotic
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第一位接受抗生素治療的患者
00:16
was a policeman in Oxford.
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是一位牛津的警察。
00:17
On his day off from work,
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有一天,他休假在家,
00:19
he was scratched by a rose thorn while working in the garden.
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整理自家花園時被玫瑰的刺劃傷。
00:23
That small scratch became infected.
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那個小的傷口被感染了。
00:26
Over the next few days, his head was swollen
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在接下來的幾天裡,他的頭因為膿瘡
00:29
with abscesses,
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而腫了起來,
00:30
and in fact his eye was so infected
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事實上他的眼睛受到嚴重感染,
00:33
that they had to take it out,
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醫生只好將它摘除,
00:35
and by February of 1941,
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到了 1941 年二月,
00:38
this poor man was on the verge of dying.
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這個可憐的警察 已經徘徊在生死邊緣。
00:40
He was at Radcliffe Infirmary in Oxford,
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他在牛津的拉德克利夫醫院接受治療,
00:43
and fortunately for him,
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幸運的是,
00:45
a small team of doctors
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由霍華德·佛洛里醫生
00:47
led by a Dr. Howard Florey
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領導的一個醫療小團隊
00:48
had managed to synthesize
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成功地合成了
00:50
a very small amount of penicillin,
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微量的青黴素,
00:53
a drug that had been discovered
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在 12 年前,由亞歷山大·佛萊明
00:55
12 years before by Alexander Fleming
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所發現的一種藥物,
00:58
but had never actually been used to treat a human,
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但是從來沒有在人體上使用過,
01:01
and indeed no one even knew if the drug would work,
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事實上,甚至沒人知道 這個藥是否有效,
01:04
if it was full of impurities that would kill the patient,
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如果這藥物不純淨的話會不會致死,
01:07
but Florey and his team figured
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但是佛洛里和他的團隊覺得
01:09
if they had to use it, they might as well use it
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如果他們一定要試用這個藥,
01:11
on someone who was going to die anyway.
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不妨用在無藥可救的患者身上。
01:14
So they gave Albert Alexander,
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於是他們將藥用在亞柏·亞歷山大
01:17
this Oxford policeman, the drug,
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那位牛津警察的身上。
01:20
and within 24 hours,
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在 24 小時之內,
01:23
he started getting better.
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他的狀況開始好轉。
01:25
His fever went down, his appetite came back.
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他的燒退了,胃口也恢復了。
01:29
Second day, he was doing much better.
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第二天,他康復得更好。
01:31
They were starting to run out of penicillin,
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不過青黴素就快用完,
01:33
so what they would do was run with his urine
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所以醫生們採集他的尿液
01:35
across the road to re-synthesize the penicillin from his urine
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從尿液裡重新合成青黴素,
01:38
and give it back to him,
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再用來治療他,
01:40
and that worked.
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這個方法也可行。
01:42
Day four, well on the way to recovery.
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第四天,他仍在慢慢康復。
01:44
This was a miracle.
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在當時這是一個奇蹟。
01:46
Day five, they ran out of penicillin,
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第五天,青黴素用完了,
01:50
and the poor man died.
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那位可憐的警察就這樣去世了。
01:52
So that story didn't end that well,
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這個故事的結局不太好,
01:55
but fortunately for millions of other people,
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不過,在他之後,有百萬人受益,
01:59
like this child who was treated again in the early 1940s,
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就像是 40 年代初期,
02:02
who was again dying of a sepsis,
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在敗血症下垂死掙扎的這個孩子,
02:05
and within just six days, you can see,
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你們可以看到,在六天之內,
02:08
recovered thanks to this wonder drug, penicillin.
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因為神奇的青黴素,這孩子痊癒了。
02:12
Millions have lived,
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上百萬的人因它活了下來,
02:14
and global health has been transformed.
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全人類的健康發生了轉變。
02:17
Now, antibiotics have been used
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現在,抗生素用來
02:20
for patients like this,
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治療這類病人,
02:23
but they've also been used rather frivolously
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但是它們也被輕易用在
02:25
in some instances,
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別的情況下,
02:27
for treating someone with just a cold or the flu,
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比如說用來治療感冒和流感,
02:29
which they might not have responded to an antibiotic,
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抗生素的治療效果不會很明顯。
02:32
and they've also been used in large quantities
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它們也被大量地使用在 非醫療場合裡,
02:36
sub-therapeutically, which means in small concentrations,
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用低濃度的抗生素,
02:39
to make chicken and hogs grow faster.
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讓雞和豬長得更快一些。
02:42
Just to save a few pennies on the price of meat,
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只是為了省一些的買肉的錢,
02:46
we've spent a lot of antibiotics on animals,
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我們在動物身上用很多的抗生素,
02:49
not for treatment, not for sick animals,
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不是為了醫治生病的動物,
02:51
but primarily for growth promotion.
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主要是為了加速生長,
02:54
Now, what did that lead us to?
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這會導致什麼結果呢?
02:57
Basically, the massive use of antibiotics
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在全球
大量地使用抗生素,
03:00
around the world
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03:01
has imposed such large selection pressure on bacteria
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促進了細菌適者生存的自然選擇,
03:05
that resistance is now a problem,
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現在細菌的抗藥性成了問題,
03:08
because we've now selected for just
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因為只有抗藥性強的細菌
03:10
the resistant bacteria.
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才能生存到現在。
03:11
And I'm sure you've all read about this in the newspapers,
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我敢肯定你們都在報紙上 看過類似報導,
03:14
you've seen this in every magazine
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你們瀏覽的每一本雜誌
03:16
that you come across,
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都有看過類似文章,
03:18
but I really want you to appreciate
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但是我想讓你們明白
03:20
the significance of this problem.
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這個問題的重要性。
03:22
This is serious.
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這是一個很嚴重的問題。
03:23
The next slide I'm about to show you is of carbapenem resistance in acinetobacter.
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下一張幻燈片展示的是 不動桿菌對碳青黴烯的抗藥性,
03:28
Acinetobacter is a nasty hospital bug,
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不動桿菌是一種經常 存在於醫院的細菌,
03:31
and carbapenem is pretty much
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碳青黴烯是
03:32
the strongest class of antibiotics
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一種最強的抗生素
03:34
that we can throw at this bug.
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用來對抗這種細菌。
03:36
And you can see in 1999
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你們可以看到,在 1999 年
03:39
this is the pattern of resistance,
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這是抗藥性分布圖,
03:42
mostly under about 10 percent across the United States.
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在美國通常是在 10% 以下。
03:45
Now watch what happens when we play the video.
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接下來隨著時間推移會發生什麼。
03:58
So I don't know where you live,
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我不知道各位是住在哪裡
04:00
but wherever it is, it certainly is a lot worse now
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不管你住在哪裡,現在的情況
04:03
than it was in 1999,
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都比 1999 年要差,
04:05
and that is the problem of antibiotic resistance.
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問題所在就是對抗生素的抗藥性。
04:09
It's a global issue
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這是一個全球性的問題
04:11
affecting both rich and poor countries,
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富有和貧窮國家都受到了影響,
04:14
and at the heart of it, you might say, well,
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歸根結底,你也許會說,
04:16
isn't this really just a medical issue?
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這只是一個醫學問題吧?
04:18
If we taught doctors how not to use antibiotics as much,
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如果我們讓醫生少用抗生素,
04:20
if we taught patients how not to demand antibiotics,
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讓病人不要求使用抗生素,
04:23
perhaps this really wouldn't be an issue,
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不就化解難題了嘛,
04:25
and maybe the pharmaceutical companies
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也許醫藥公司
04:27
should be working harder to develop
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應該更努力研發
04:28
more antibiotics.
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更多的抗生素。
04:30
Now, it turns out that there's something fundamental about antibiotics
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但是抗生素在本質上
04:33
which makes it different from other drugs,
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與其他藥物有不同的地方,
04:35
which is that if I misuse antibiotics
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意味著,如果我誤用抗生素
04:37
or I use antibiotics,
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或使用抗生素,
04:39
not only am I affected but others are affected as well,
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不僅我會受到影響, 其他人也會受到影響,
04:43
in the same way as if I choose to drive to work
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同理,有如我開車去上班
04:45
or take a plane to go somewhere,
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或者坐飛機去別的地方,
04:48
that the costs I impose on others
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我造成的污染也會影響到別人
04:50
through global climate change go everywhere,
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因此造成氣候變化 其影響無所不在,
04:52
and I don't necessarily take these costs into consideration.
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我卻不會考慮到我帶來的影響。
04:55
This is what economists might call a problem of the commons,
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這就是經濟學裡所謂的公共問題,
04:58
and the problem of the commons is exactly
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公共問題恰好就是
05:00
what we face in the case of antibiotics as well:
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抗生素所面對的問題:
05:02
that we don't consider —
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我們都不會考慮-
05:04
and we, including individuals, patients,
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包括個人、病患、
05:07
hospitals, entire health systems —
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醫院、整個醫療體系-
05:11
do not consider the costs that they impose on others
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沒有仔細思考濫用抗生素
05:13
by the way antibiotics are actually used.
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會給別人帶來什麼影響。
05:15
Now, that's a problem that's similar
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這與我們所熟知的
05:17
to another area that we all know about,
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另一個領域的問題很類似,
05:19
which is of fuel use and energy,
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那就是燃油的使用和能源問題,
05:21
and of course energy use
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當然,能源的使用問題
05:23
both depletes energy as well as
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不僅消耗了大量資源
05:26
leads to local pollution and climate change.
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也造成了當地環境污染和氣候變化。
05:29
And typically, in the case of energy,
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特別是能源的使用,
05:31
there are two ways in which you can deal with the problem.
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有兩個解決方案。
05:33
One is, we can make better use of the oil that we have,
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一是更加有效率的使用現有的燃油,
05:37
and that's analogous to making better use
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同樣的,我們可以更好的方式使用
05:39
of existing antibiotics,
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現存的抗生素,
05:41
and we can do this in a number of ways
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我們可以通過很多途徑來實現它
05:42
that we'll talk about in a second,
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我們稍後再討論這個問題,
05:45
but the other option is the "drill, baby, drill" option,
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另一個選擇就是繼續開採燃油,
05:48
which in the case of antibiotics is to go find new antibiotics.
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在抗生素的角度來說 就是尋找新的抗生素。
05:53
Now, these are not separate.
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這不是分開的兩個選擇。
05:55
They're related, because if we invest heavily
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它們是相關連的, 如果我們大量地投資
05:58
in new oil wells,
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在開採新的油井,
06:00
we reduce the incentives for conservation of oil
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我們對原油的節約意識也就降低了,
06:03
in the same way that's going to happen for antibiotics.
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抗生素也會發生同樣的事情。
06:06
The reverse is also going to happen, which is that
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相反的情況也會發生,
06:08
if we use our antibiotics appropriately,
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如果我們適當使用抗生素,
06:10
we don't necessarily have to make the investments
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我們就不必投資
06:13
in new drug development.
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開發新的抗生素。
06:15
And if you thought that these two were entirely,
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如果你認為這兩者
06:18
fully balanced between these two options,
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處在完美的平衡狀態,
06:20
you might consider the fact that
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那你應該知道
06:22
this is really a game that we're playing.
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其實這只是我們玩的一個遊戲。
06:24
The game is really one of coevolution,
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這個遊戲只是一種共同進化,
06:27
and coevolution is, in this particular picture,
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如圖所示,在獵豹和羚羊之間,
06:30
between cheetahs and gazelles.
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就存在著共同進化。
06:32
Cheetahs have evolved to run faster,
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獵豹進化讓自己跑得更快,
06:34
because if they didn't run faster,
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因為如果牠們跑得不快,
06:35
they wouldn't get any lunch.
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就吃不到午飯。
06:37
Gazelles have evolved to run faster because
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羚羊也進化跑得更快
06:40
if they don't run faster, they would be lunch.
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因為如果牠們跑不快, 就會被當作午餐,
06:43
Now, this is the game we're playing against the bacteria,
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我們就在和細菌玩這個遊戲,
06:46
except we're not the cheetahs,
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但我們不是獵豹,
06:48
we're the gazelles,
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我們是羚羊,
06:49
and the bacteria would,
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而細菌,
06:52
just in the course of this little talk,
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就在我們說話的同時,
06:54
would have had kids and grandkids
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會一代一代地繁衍,
06:55
and figured out how to be resistant
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它們會想辦法抵抗抗生素,
06:58
just by selection and trial and error,
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通過選擇和試誤,
07:00
trying it over and over again.
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一再地嘗試。
07:02
Whereas how do we stay ahead of the bacteria?
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那我們要怎麼做 才能跑在細菌的前面呢?
07:06
We have drug discovery processes,
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我們有藥物研發過程,
07:08
screening molecules,
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篩選分子,
07:10
we have clinical trials,
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我們有臨床試驗,
07:11
and then, when we think we have a drug,
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當我們認為我們研發出新的藥物時,
07:14
then we have the FDA regulatory process.
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我們還要通過食品藥物管理局的審查。
07:17
And once we go through all of that,
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一旦我們完成了這些程序,
07:20
then we try to stay one step ahead
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我們又要再想辦法跑在
07:22
of the bacteria.
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細菌的前面。
07:24
Now, this is clearly not a game that can be sustained,
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很明顯這不是一個 可以長期堅持的遊戲,
07:27
or one that we can win
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或是只依靠發現新藥物
07:28
by simply innovating to stay ahead.
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就能贏得勝利的遊戲。
07:30
We've got to slow the pace of coevolution down,
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我們需要讓共同進化的腳步慢下來,
07:33
and there are ideas that we can borrow from energy
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能源問題的解決方法 我們可以引為借鏡,
07:37
that are helpful in thinking about
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我們可以嫁接
07:39
how we might want to do this in the case
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解決能源問題的辦法
07:40
of antibiotics as well.
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來解決抗生素的問題。
07:42
Now, if you think about how we deal with
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如果你們想想我們是
07:44
energy pricing, for instance,
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怎麼處理能源的價格,
07:45
we consider emissions taxes,
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我們會考慮污染排放稅,
07:47
which means we're imposing the costs of pollution
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意味著我們讓使用能源的人
07:50
on people who actually use that energy.
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出錢來解決排放的污染。
07:53
We might consider doing that for antibiotics as well,
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我們可以在抗生素上做同樣的事,
07:56
and perhaps that would make sure that antibiotics
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也許可以讓抗生素
07:58
actually get used appropriately.
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被適當的使用。
08:01
There are clean energy subsidies,
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還有清潔能源補貼,
08:03
which are to switch to fuels which don't pollute as much
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鼓勵使用低污染的能源,
08:06
or perhaps don't need fossil fuels.
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也許最後我們都不需要石油了。
08:09
Now, the analogy here is, perhaps we need
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同樣的,或許我們必需
08:11
to move away from using antibiotics,
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遠離抗生素,
08:14
and if you think about it, what are good substitutes for antibiotics?
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你仔細想想,什麼可以代替抗生素?
08:17
Well, turns out that anything that reduces
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2164
一切可以減少抗生素使用的東西
08:20
the need for the antibiotic would really work,
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都是可行的,
08:22
so that could include improving hospital infection control
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包括提高醫院防治感染的能力,
08:25
or vaccinating people,
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給人們打疫苗,
08:28
particularly against the seasonal influenza.
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特別是抵抗季節性流感的疫苗。
08:30
And the seasonal flu is probably
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2531
季節性流感很可能
08:33
the biggest driver of antibiotic use,
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513208
3004
是抗生素使用最多的地方,
08:36
both in this country as well as in many other countries,
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2919
在我國和其他國家都是,
08:39
and that could really help.
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2020
注射疫苗可以提供極大的幫助。
08:41
A third option might include something like tradeable permits.
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第三種選擇包括交易許可。
08:45
And these seem like faraway scenarios,
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這聽起來似乎和抗生素掛不上邊,
08:49
but if you consider the fact that we might not
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但是如果我們沒有足量抗生素
08:51
have antibiotics for many people who have infections,
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給被感染的人治療,
08:55
we might consider the fact that we might
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2237
我們也許可考慮
08:57
want to allocate who actually gets to use
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把抗生素分配
08:59
some of these antibiotics over others,
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給最需要的人,
09:02
and some of these might have to be on the basis of clinical need,
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3326
但我們需要考慮臨床需要,
09:05
but also on the basis of pricing.
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1935
以及定價的基礎。
09:07
And certainly consumer education works.
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1910
當然教育消費者也可行。
09:09
Very often, people overuse antibiotics
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2601
多數時候,大家濫用抗生素
09:12
or prescribe too much without necessarily
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2277
或者醫生開了過量的抗生素,
09:14
knowing that they do so,
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1606
卻不盡然明瞭自己已濫用或過量,
09:16
and feedback mechanisms
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1431
而反饋機制讓他們知道情況
09:17
have been found to be useful,
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1902
也被證明有效,
09:19
both on energy —
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1929
不僅在能源問題上-
09:21
When you tell someone that they're using
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當你告訴某人
09:23
a lot of energy during peak hour,
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1917
他們在高峰期用了很多能源,
09:24
they tend to cut back,
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1470
他們一般都會變得節約一些,
09:26
and the same sort of example has been performed
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1767
同樣的例子
09:28
even in the case of antibiotics.
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在抗生素上也有所體現。
09:29
A hospital in St. Louis basically would put up
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1981
聖路易斯的一家醫院
09:31
on a chart the names of surgeons
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4192
把外科醫生的名字做成一張表,
09:36
in the ordering of how much antibiotics they'd used
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2219
依上個月用了多少抗生素
09:38
in the previous month,
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1944
來進行排名,
09:40
and this was purely an informational feedback,
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2342
這全然是一個信息反饋,
09:42
there was no shaming,
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1183
這張表沒有對醫生指責,
09:43
but essentially that provided some information back
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2135
只是提供了一些資訊
09:45
to surgeons that maybe they could rethink
228
585989
1954
這樣外科醫生可以反思
09:47
how they were using antibiotics.
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2229
自己有沒有適當使用抗生素。
09:50
Now, there's a lot that can be done
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2014
如今,在供給這方面
09:52
on the supply side as well.
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2149
也有需要改善的地方。
09:54
If you look at the price of penicillin,
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1777
如果你看看青黴素的價格,
09:56
the cost per day is about 10 cents.
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1651
一天的價格是 10 美分 (三元台幣)。
09:57
It's a fairly cheap drug.
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1758
這是非常便宜的藥。
09:59
If you take drugs that have been introduced since then —
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2137
如果你使用之後發明的藥物-
10:01
linezolid or daptomycin —
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2644
利奈唑胺或者達託黴素-
10:04
those are significantly more expensive,
237
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1878
是要貴得多,
10:06
so to a world that has been used to paying 10 cents a day for antibiotics,
238
606180
5451
如果你可以每天花 10 美分 使用抗生素,
10:11
the idea of paying 180 dollars per day
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611633
2530
那麼花 180 美元使用別的藥物
10:14
seems like a lot.
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1567
看起來就貴多了。
10:15
But what is that really telling us?
241
615730
1987
這個究竟告訴了我們什麼呢?
10:17
That price is telling us
242
617717
1965
價格告訴我們
10:19
that we should no longer
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619682
1898
我們不應該
10:21
take cheap, effective antibiotics as a given
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621580
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在可見的未來裡
將使用廉價有效的抗生素視為當然,
10:25
into the foreseeable future,
245
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1767
10:27
and that price is a signal to us
246
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2530
這個價格是一個信號
10:29
that perhaps we need to be paying
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1609
也許我們應該
10:31
much more attention to conservation.
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2553
重視節用抗生素。
10:34
That price is also a signal
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2704
這個價格也給出了另一個信號
10:36
that maybe we need to start looking at other technologies,
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2875
那就是我們應該開始轉向其他的技術,
10:39
in the same way that gasoline prices are a signal
251
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2652
就好像汽油價格是一個信號
10:42
and an impetus, to, say,
252
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2590
可以說它
10:44
the development of electric cars.
253
644977
1868
刺激了電動車的發展。
10:46
Prices are important signals
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1777
價格是很重要的信號
10:48
and we need to pay attention,
255
648622
1586
我們要更重視這個訊號,
10:50
but we also need to consider the fact that
256
650208
2452
但我們也要考慮到
10:52
although these high prices seem unusual for antibiotics,
257
652660
4252
雖然高價抗生素似乎不太常見,
10:56
they're nothing compared to the price per day
258
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2239
和某些癌症治療藥物比起來
10:59
of some cancer drugs,
259
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1384
這種高價基本上可以被忽視,
11:00
which might save a patient's life only for a few months or perhaps a year,
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3370
癌症藥物可能只能拖延幾個月 或者一年的時間,
11:03
whereas antibiotics would potentially
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663905
1770
而抗生素
11:05
save a patient's life forever.
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1826
可以徹底挽救一個病人的生命。
11:07
So this is going to involve
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1319
所以一個全新的模式變革
11:08
a whole new paradigm shift,
264
668820
1962
將會發生,
11:10
and it's also a scary shift because
265
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1856
這種變化也會很可怕
11:12
in many parts of this country,
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2329
因為在這個國家很多地方,
11:14
in many parts of the world,
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674967
1744
在全球各個角落,
11:16
the idea of paying 200 dollars
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676711
2069
每天花上 200 美元
11:18
for a day of antibiotic treatment
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2891
進行抗生素治療
11:21
is simply unimaginable.
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2542
是難以想像的。
11:24
So we need to think about that.
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1734
所以我們需要好好的想一想。
11:25
Now, there are backstop options,
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1813
現在,還有一些備案,
11:27
which is other alternative technologies
273
687760
2676
人們在研發
其他可以代替的技術。
11:30
that people are working on.
274
690436
1194
11:31
It includes bacteriophages, probiotics,
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2652
包括噬菌體、益生菌,
11:34
quorum sensing, synbiotics.
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4048
細菌群聚感應、合益素。
11:38
Now, all of these are useful avenues to pursue,
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3039
如今這些都是可以探索的途徑,
11:41
and they will become even more lucrative
278
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2610
當新抗生素價格不斷上漲時
11:43
when the price of new antibiotics starts going higher,
279
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3081
它們就會變得更有利可圖,
11:47
and we've seen that the market does actually respond,
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2897
我們看到市場已經開始回應,
11:49
and the government is now considering
281
709957
2008
政府也在考慮
11:51
ways of subsidizing new antibiotics and development.
282
711965
3767
為新抗生素研發提供補貼。
11:55
But there are challenges here.
283
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1723
但我們正面臨挑戰。
11:57
We don't want to just throw money at a problem.
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1575
問題不能只光砸錢。
11:59
What we want to be able to do
285
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1519
我們想做的
12:00
is invest in new antibiotics
286
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2279
是投資研發新的抗生素
12:02
in ways that actually encourage
287
722828
2976
但要能實際鼓勵
12:05
appropriate use and sales of those antibiotics,
288
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3020
這些抗生素的銷售和適當使用,
12:08
and that really is the challenge here.
289
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2463
這才是真正的挑戰。
12:11
Now, going back to these technologies,
290
731287
2329
現在回到技術上,
12:13
you all remember the line from that famous
291
733616
2363
你們肯定記得那部知名恐龍影片,
12:15
dinosaur film, "Nature will find a way."
292
735979
2226
侏儸紀公園裡面的一句台詞 「大自然會找到自己的出路。」
12:18
So it's not as if these are permanent solutions.
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3319
所以這些都不是永久的解決辦法。
12:21
We really have to remember that, whatever the technology might be,
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4086
我們需要記住,不管是什麼科技,
12:25
that nature will find some way to work around it.
295
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2876
大自然總會找到解決方法。
12:28
You might think, well, this is just a problem
296
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2071
你也許會想,這只是一個
12:30
just with antibiotics and with bacteria,
297
750557
2744
有關抗生素和細菌的問題,
12:33
but it turns out that we have the exact same
298
753301
1946
但是我們在其他領域
12:35
identical problem in many other fields as well,
299
755247
2734
也有相同的問題,
12:37
with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis,
300
757981
2952
有多重抗藥性肺結核,
12:40
which is a serious problem in India and South Africa.
301
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3562
在南非和印度都是一個大問題。
12:44
Thousands of patients are dying because
302
764495
1787
上千的病人面臨死亡的威脅
12:46
the second-line drugs are so expensive,
303
766282
1834
因為二線藥物太昂貴,
12:48
and in some instances, even those don't work
304
768116
2227
有的情況,二線藥物都沒有作用,
12:50
and you have XDR TB.
305
770343
2070
因為你得了廣泛抗藥性肺結核。
12:52
Viruses are becoming resistant.
306
772413
1811
病毒也變得具抗藥性。
12:54
Agricultural pests. Malaria parasites.
307
774224
3166
農業害蟲、 瘧原蟲。
12:57
Right now, much of the world depends on
308
777390
1783
現在,世界上很多地方 都依賴一種藥物
12:59
one drug, artemisinin drugs,
309
779173
3697
青蒿素藥物,
13:02
essentially to treat malaria.
310
782870
1956
它用於治療瘧疾。
13:04
Resistance to artemisinin has already emerged,
311
784826
2587
對青蒿素的抗藥性已經開始顯現,
13:07
and if this were to become widespread,
312
787413
2354
如果這種情況蔓延,
13:09
that puts at risk
313
789767
1348
會使這種目前我們在全球治療瘧疾
13:11
the single drug that we have to treat malaria around the world
314
791115
2891
安全又有效的單一療法藥物
13:14
in a way that's currently safe and efficacious.
315
794006
3214
產生風險。
13:17
Mosquitos develop resistance.
316
797220
1798
蚊子也產生了耐藥性。
13:19
If you have kids, you probably know about head lice,
317
799018
2237
如果你有小孩,你應該會知道頭蝨,
13:21
and if you're from New York City,
318
801255
1713
如果你是紐約人,
13:22
I understand that the specialty there is bedbugs.
319
802968
2733
我聽說那裡的特產是臭蟲。
13:25
So those are also resistant.
320
805701
2255
這些也有了抗藥性。
13:27
And we have to bring an example from across the pond.
321
807956
2879
我們還得舉個一洋之隔的 英國的例子。
13:30
Turns out that rats are also resistant to poisons.
322
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2355
那裡的老鼠也變得抗毒藥了。
13:33
Now, what's common to all of these things is
323
813190
2701
這些事的共同點就是
13:35
the idea that we've had these technologies
324
815891
2706
我們有了這些技術
13:38
to control nature only for the last 70, 80 or 100 years
325
818597
4621
讓我們戰勝了自然 70、80 或者 100 年,
13:43
and essentially in a blink,
326
823218
3028
轉眼之間,
13:46
we have squandered our ability to control,
327
826246
2551
我們就失去了控制力,
13:48
because we have not recognized
328
828797
2491
因為我們還沒有意識到
13:51
that natural selection and evolution was going to find
329
831288
2812
自然選擇和進化
總會找到一個出路,
13:54
a way to get back,
330
834100
1174
13:55
and we need to completely rethink
331
835274
2049
我們需要全盤反思
13:57
how we're going to use
332
837323
2343
我們究竟要用什麼
13:59
measures to control biological organisms,
333
839666
3094
去控制生物體,
14:02
and rethink how we incentivize
334
842760
3464
我們需要反思
我們如何促進藥物的發展及引進,
14:06
the development, introduction,
335
846224
2226
14:08
in the case of antibiotics prescription,
336
848450
2668
比如在抗生素的處方上,
14:11
and use of these valuable resources.
337
851118
3772
及如何利用這些寶貴的資源。
14:14
And we really now need to start thinking about them
338
854890
2380
我們需要把它們
14:17
as natural resources.
339
857270
1958
當作自然資源。
14:19
And so we stand at a crossroads.
340
859228
2238
我們站在一個十字路口上。
14:21
An option is to go through that rethinking
341
861466
3159
一個選擇就是反思自己
14:24
and carefully consider incentives
342
864625
1813
謹慎地考慮所有的動機
14:26
to change how we do business.
343
866438
2554
怎麼改變我們做事的方法。
14:28
The alternative is
344
868992
2261
要不然我們就會淪落在
14:31
a world in which even a blade of grass
345
871253
3083
即便一片草葉子
14:34
is a potentially lethal weapon.
346
874336
2429
也是致命武器的世界裡。
14:36
Thank you.
347
876765
1800
謝謝。
14:38
(Applause)
348
878565
2735
(掌聲)
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