Ramanan Laxminarayan: The coming crisis in antibiotics

105,415 views ・ 2014-11-10

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Prevoditelj: Katarina Licht Recezent: Ivan Stamenković
00:12
The first patient to ever be treated with an antibiotic
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Prvi pacijent liječen antibioticima
00:16
was a policeman in Oxford.
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bio je policajac u Oxfordu.
00:17
On his day off from work,
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Na njegov slobodan dan,
00:19
he was scratched by a rose thorn while working in the garden.
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ogrebao se o trn ruže radeći u vrtu.
00:23
That small scratch became infected.
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Ta je mala ogrebotina postala inficirana.
00:26
Over the next few days, his head was swollen
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Tijekom sljedećih dana, glava mu je natekla
00:29
with abscesses,
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od gnojnih čireva
00:30
and in fact his eye was so infected
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i oko mu je bilo toliko inficirano
00:33
that they had to take it out,
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da su mu ga morali izvaditi.
00:35
and by February of 1941,
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Do kraja veljače 1941. godine,
00:38
this poor man was on the verge of dying.
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ovaj je jadni čovjek bio na rubu smrti.
00:40
He was at Radcliffe Infirmary in Oxford,
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Nalazio se u Radcliffe ambulanti u Oxfordu
00:43
and fortunately for him,
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i, na njegovu sreću,
00:45
a small team of doctors
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mali tim liječnika
00:47
led by a Dr. Howard Florey
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predvođen doktorom Howardom Floreyem
00:48
had managed to synthesize
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uspio je sintetizirati
00:50
a very small amount of penicillin,
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veoma malu količinu penicilina,
00:53
a drug that had been discovered
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lijeka kojeg je otkrio
00:55
12 years before by Alexander Fleming
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Alexander Fleming 12 godina prije,
00:58
but had never actually been used to treat a human,
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ali nikada nije primijenjen na čovjeka
01:01
and indeed no one even knew if the drug would work,
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i nitko nije znao hoće li lijek djelovati,
01:04
if it was full of impurities that would kill the patient,
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sadrži li nečistoće koje bi mogle ubiti pacijenta,
01:07
but Florey and his team figured
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ali su Florey i njegov tim shvatili
01:09
if they had to use it, they might as well use it
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da ako već moraju, mogli bi ga upotrijebiti
01:11
on someone who was going to die anyway.
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na nekome tko će svakako umrijeti.
01:14
So they gave Albert Alexander,
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Tako su Albertu Alexanderu,
01:17
this Oxford policeman, the drug,
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oxfordskom policajcu, dali lijek
01:20
and within 24 hours,
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i unutar 24 sata,
01:23
he started getting better.
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počeo se oporavljati.
01:25
His fever went down, his appetite came back.
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Spustila mu se temperatura, vratio mu se apetit.
01:29
Second day, he was doing much better.
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Drugog mu je dana bilo puno bolje.
01:31
They were starting to run out of penicillin,
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Počelo im je nedostajati penicilina
01:33
so what they would do was run with his urine
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pa bi trčali s njegovim urinom
01:35
across the road to re-synthesize the penicillin from his urine
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preko ceste, kako bi resintetizirali penicilin iz njegova urina
01:38
and give it back to him,
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i ponovno mu ga dali,
01:40
and that worked.
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i to je uspijevalo.
01:42
Day four, well on the way to recovery.
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Četvrti je dan bio na dobrom putu oporavka.
01:44
This was a miracle.
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To je bilo čudo.
01:46
Day five, they ran out of penicillin,
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Peti dan su ostali bez penicilina
01:50
and the poor man died.
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i siroti je čovjek preminuo.
01:52
So that story didn't end that well,
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Tako da ta priča nije završila baš lijepo,
01:55
but fortunately for millions of other people,
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ali, na sreću milijuna drugih ljudi,
01:59
like this child who was treated again in the early 1940s,
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kao ovog djeteta liječenog u ranim 1940-ima,
02:02
who was again dying of a sepsis,
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koje je umiralo od sepse
02:05
and within just six days, you can see,
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i koje se u samo šest dana, kao što možete vidjeti,
02:08
recovered thanks to this wonder drug, penicillin.
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oporavilo zahvaljujući ovom čudesnom lijeku, penicilinu.
02:12
Millions have lived,
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Milijuni su preživjeli
02:14
and global health has been transformed.
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i globalno zdravstvo se transformiralo.
02:17
Now, antibiotics have been used
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Antibiotici su se koristili
02:20
for patients like this,
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za pacijente poput ovih,
02:23
but they've also been used rather frivolously
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ali korišteni su i veoma neozbiljno
02:25
in some instances,
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u nekim slučajevima,
02:27
for treating someone with just a cold or the flu,
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za liječenje samo prehlade ili gripe,
02:29
which they might not have responded to an antibiotic,
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koje ne bi reagirale na antibiotik.
02:32
and they've also been used in large quantities
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Također su korišteni u velikim količinama
02:36
sub-therapeutically, which means in small concentrations,
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ne-terapeutski, odnosno u malim koncentracijama
02:39
to make chicken and hogs grow faster.
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za brži rast pilića i svinja.
02:42
Just to save a few pennies on the price of meat,
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Samo kako bi smanjili cijenu mesa za nekoliko penija,
02:46
we've spent a lot of antibiotics on animals,
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potrošili smo mnogo antibiotika na životinje,
02:49
not for treatment, not for sick animals,
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ne za liječenje, ne za bolesne životinje,
02:51
but primarily for growth promotion.
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već prvenstveno za potpomognut rast.
02:54
Now, what did that lead us to?
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Kamo nas je to dovelo sada?
02:57
Basically, the massive use of antibiotics
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U osnovi, masivna upotreba antibiotika
03:00
around the world
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diljem svijeta
03:01
has imposed such large selection pressure on bacteria
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nametnula je tako veliki selektivni pritisak na bakterije
03:05
that resistance is now a problem,
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da je sada otpornost postala problem
03:08
because we've now selected for just
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jer su opstale samo
03:10
the resistant bacteria.
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rezistentne bakterije.
03:11
And I'm sure you've all read about this in the newspapers,
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Siguran sam da ste svi čitali o ovome u novinama,
03:14
you've seen this in every magazine
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da ste vidjeli ovo u svakom časopisu
03:16
that you come across,
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na koji ste naišli,
03:18
but I really want you to appreciate
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ali stvarno želim da u potpunosti shvatite
03:20
the significance of this problem.
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važnost ovog problema
03:22
This is serious.
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Ovo je ozbiljno.
03:23
The next slide I'm about to show you is of carbapenem resistance in acinetobacter.
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Sljedeći dijapozitiv prikazuje otpornost acinetobactera na karbapenem.
03:28
Acinetobacter is a nasty hospital bug,
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Acinetobacter je gadna bolnička bakterija,
03:31
and carbapenem is pretty much
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i karbapenem je poprilično
03:32
the strongest class of antibiotics
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najjača vrsta antibiotika
03:34
that we can throw at this bug.
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kojom možemo napasti ovu bakteriju.
03:36
And you can see in 1999
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Možete vidjeti da je u 1999.
03:39
this is the pattern of resistance,
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ovo bio uzorak otpornosti.
03:42
mostly under about 10 percent across the United States.
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većinom ispod 10 posto širom Sjedinjenih Država.
03:45
Now watch what happens when we play the video.
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Sada pogledajte što se događa kada pokrenemo video.
03:58
So I don't know where you live,
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Ne znam gdje živite,
04:00
but wherever it is, it certainly is a lot worse now
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ali gdjegod to bilo, zasigurno je puno gore sada
04:03
than it was in 1999,
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nego što je bilo 1999. godine.
04:05
and that is the problem of antibiotic resistance.
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To je problem s otpornošću na antibiotike.
04:09
It's a global issue
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Ovo je globalno pitanje
04:11
affecting both rich and poor countries,
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koji jednako pogađa i bogate i siromašne zemlje,
04:14
and at the heart of it, you might say, well,
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i u njegovoj srži, mogli biste pitati
04:16
isn't this really just a medical issue?
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nije li to zapravo samo medicinski problem?
04:18
If we taught doctors how not to use antibiotics as much,
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Ako bismo naučili doktore ne koristiti antibiotike toliko,
04:20
if we taught patients how not to demand antibiotics,
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ako bismo naučili pacijente ne zahtijevati antibiotike,
04:23
perhaps this really wouldn't be an issue,
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možda ovo zapravo ne bi bio problem
04:25
and maybe the pharmaceutical companies
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i možda bi farmaceutske kompanije
04:27
should be working harder to develop
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trebale više raditi na razvoju
04:28
more antibiotics.
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više antibiotika.
04:30
Now, it turns out that there's something fundamental about antibiotics
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No, ispada da postoji nešto fundamentalno u vezi s antibioticima
04:33
which makes it different from other drugs,
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što ih razlikuje od drugih lijekova,
04:35
which is that if I misuse antibiotics
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a to je da ako ja zloupotrijebim antibiotike
04:37
or I use antibiotics,
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ili ako koristim antibiotike,
04:39
not only am I affected but others are affected as well,
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nisam samo ja pogođen, već su i drugi ljudi pogođeni
04:43
in the same way as if I choose to drive to work
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na isti način kao da odlučim odvesti se na posao
04:45
or take a plane to go somewhere,
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ili otići negdje avionom,
04:48
that the costs I impose on others
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troškovi koje nametnem drugima
04:50
through global climate change go everywhere,
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kroz globalne klimatske promjene prisutni su svugdje
04:52
and I don't necessarily take these costs into consideration.
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i ja ne uzimam, nužno, te troškove u obzir.
04:55
This is what economists might call a problem of the commons,
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Ovo je ono što bi ekonomisti mogli nazvati problemom zajednice,
04:58
and the problem of the commons is exactly
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i problem zajednice je točno
05:00
what we face in the case of antibiotics as well:
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ono s čim se suočavamo i u slučaju antibiotika:
05:02
that we don't consider —
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da ne uzimamo u obzir —
05:04
and we, including individuals, patients,
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i mi, uključujući pojedince, pacijente,
05:07
hospitals, entire health systems —
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bolnice, čitav zdravstveni sustav —
05:11
do not consider the costs that they impose on others
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ne uzimamo u obzir troškove koje oni nameću drugima
05:13
by the way antibiotics are actually used.
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načinom na koji su antibiotici zapravo korišteni.
05:15
Now, that's a problem that's similar
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Ovaj je problem sličan
05:17
to another area that we all know about,
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drugome području za koje svi znamo,
05:19
which is of fuel use and energy,
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a to je upotreba goriva i energije,
05:21
and of course energy use
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i naravno, upotreba energije
05:23
both depletes energy as well as
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i iscrpljuje energiju kao što i
05:26
leads to local pollution and climate change.
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vodi do lokalnog zagađenja i klimatskih promjena.
05:29
And typically, in the case of energy,
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I tipično, u slučaju energije,
05:31
there are two ways in which you can deal with the problem.
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postoje dva načina na koja se može nositi s problemom.
05:33
One is, we can make better use of the oil that we have,
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Jedan je da bolje koristimo naftu koju imamo,
05:37
and that's analogous to making better use
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što je analogno boljoj upotrebi
05:39
of existing antibiotics,
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postojećih antibiotika,
05:41
and we can do this in a number of ways
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a to možemo učiniti na brojne načine
05:42
that we'll talk about in a second,
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o kojima ćemo pričati ubrzo,
05:45
but the other option is the "drill, baby, drill" option,
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dok je druga opcija poticanje traženja novih naftnih bušotina,
05:48
which in the case of antibiotics is to go find new antibiotics.
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odnosno, u slučaju antibiotika, traženje novih antibiotika.
05:53
Now, these are not separate.
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Ovo dva načina nisu odvojena.
05:55
They're related, because if we invest heavily
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Povezani su, jer ako mnogo ulažemo
05:58
in new oil wells,
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u nove naftne bušotine,
06:00
we reduce the incentives for conservation of oil
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smanjujemo poticaje za očuvanje nafte
06:03
in the same way that's going to happen for antibiotics.
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i to će se na isti način dogoditi s antibioticima.
06:06
The reverse is also going to happen, which is that
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Događa se i obrnuto,
06:08
if we use our antibiotics appropriately,
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ako prigodno koristimo naše antibiotike,
06:10
we don't necessarily have to make the investments
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ne moramo nužno ulagati
06:13
in new drug development.
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u razvoj novih lijekova.
06:15
And if you thought that these two were entirely,
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Ako ste mislili da je ovo dvoje u cjelosti,
06:18
fully balanced between these two options,
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potpuno balansirano između ove dvije opcije,
06:20
you might consider the fact that
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mogli bi razmotriti činjenicu da
06:22
this is really a game that we're playing.
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je ovo zapravo igra koju igramo.
06:24
The game is really one of coevolution,
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To je zapravo igra koevolucije,
06:27
and coevolution is, in this particular picture,
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a koevolucija je, na ovoj slici,
06:30
between cheetahs and gazelles.
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između geparda i gazela.
06:32
Cheetahs have evolved to run faster,
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Gepardi su evoluirali tako da trče brže,
06:34
because if they didn't run faster,
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jer da ne trče brže
06:35
they wouldn't get any lunch.
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ne bi imali što jesti za ručak.
06:37
Gazelles have evolved to run faster because
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Gazele su evoluirale da trče brže jer
06:40
if they don't run faster, they would be lunch.
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ako ne bi trčale brže, one bi postale ručak.
06:43
Now, this is the game we're playing against the bacteria,
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To je igra koju mi igramo protiv bakterija,
06:46
except we're not the cheetahs,
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samo što mi nismo gepardi,
06:48
we're the gazelles,
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mi smo gazele,
06:49
and the bacteria would,
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i bakterija bi,
06:52
just in the course of this little talk,
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samo za vrijeme ovog kratkog govora,
06:54
would have had kids and grandkids
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dobila djecu i unuke,
06:55
and figured out how to be resistant
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i shvatila kako biti rezistentna
06:58
just by selection and trial and error,
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samo putem selekcije te probom i pogreškom,
07:00
trying it over and over again.
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pokušavajući neprestano iznova.
07:02
Whereas how do we stay ahead of the bacteria?
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S obzirom na to, kako ostati ispred bakterija?
07:06
We have drug discovery processes,
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Imamo procese otkrivanja lijekova,
07:08
screening molecules,
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provjeravanje molekula,
07:10
we have clinical trials,
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imamo klinička ispitivanja,
07:11
and then, when we think we have a drug,
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i onda kada mislimo da imamo lijek,
07:14
then we have the FDA regulatory process.
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onda imamo regulatorni proces Uprave za hranu i lijekove.
07:17
And once we go through all of that,
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Nakon što prođemo kroz to sve,
07:20
then we try to stay one step ahead
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onda pokušavamo ostati korak ispred
07:22
of the bacteria.
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bakterija.
07:24
Now, this is clearly not a game that can be sustained,
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Jasno je da je ovo igra koja ne može biti održana,
07:27
or one that we can win
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ili koja se može pobijediti
07:28
by simply innovating to stay ahead.
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samo inovacijama kako biti u prednosti.
07:30
We've got to slow the pace of coevolution down,
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Moramo usporiti tempo koevolucije,
07:33
and there are ideas that we can borrow from energy
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i postoje ideje koje možemo posuditi od energije
07:37
that are helpful in thinking about
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i koje su od pomoći kada razmišljamo
07:39
how we might want to do this in the case
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kako bi to mogli napraviti u slučaju
07:40
of antibiotics as well.
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antibiotika, također.
07:42
Now, if you think about how we deal with
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Ako razmislite kako se nosimo s
07:44
energy pricing, for instance,
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cijenom energije, na primjer,
07:45
we consider emissions taxes,
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uzimamo u obzir porez na emisije,
07:47
which means we're imposing the costs of pollution
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što znači da namećemo trošak zagađenja
07:50
on people who actually use that energy.
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ljudima koji zapravo koriste tu energiju.
07:53
We might consider doing that for antibiotics as well,
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Mogli bi razmotriti da isto učinimo s antibioticima,
07:56
and perhaps that would make sure that antibiotics
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i možda bi to osiguralo da se antibiotici
07:58
actually get used appropriately.
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zapravo umjesno koriste.
08:01
There are clean energy subsidies,
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Postoje subvencije za čistu energiju,
08:03
which are to switch to fuels which don't pollute as much
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koja koristi goriva koja ne zagađuju toliko
08:06
or perhaps don't need fossil fuels.
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ili možda ne treba fosilna goriva.
08:09
Now, the analogy here is, perhaps we need
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Analogija je slijedeća: možda se trebamo
08:11
to move away from using antibiotics,
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udaljiti od upotrebe antibiotika,
08:14
and if you think about it, what are good substitutes for antibiotics?
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i ako razmislite o tome, koje su dobre zamjene za antibiotike?
08:17
Well, turns out that anything that reduces
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2164
Izgleda da bi bilo što što smanjuje
08:20
the need for the antibiotic would really work,
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potrebu za antibioticima stvarno funkcioniralo,
08:22
so that could include improving hospital infection control
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3142
tako da bi to moglo uključivati bolju kontrolu bolničkih infekcija
08:25
or vaccinating people,
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ili cijepljenje ljudi,
08:28
particularly against the seasonal influenza.
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pogotovo protiv sezonske gripe.
08:30
And the seasonal flu is probably
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2531
Sezonska je, gripa vjerojatno,
08:33
the biggest driver of antibiotic use,
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3004
najveći pokretač upotrebe antibiotika,
08:36
both in this country as well as in many other countries,
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2919
kako u ovoj zemlji, tako i u mnogim drugim zemljama,
08:39
and that could really help.
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519131
2020
i to bi stvarno moglo pomoći.
08:41
A third option might include something like tradeable permits.
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Treća bi opcija mogla uključiti nešto poput razmjenjivih kvota.
08:45
And these seem like faraway scenarios,
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Ovo se može činiti kao daleki scenarij,
08:49
but if you consider the fact that we might not
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ali ako razmotrimo činjenicu da možda
08:51
have antibiotics for many people who have infections,
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nećemo imati antibiotika za mnoge ljude s infekcijama,
08:55
we might consider the fact that we might
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2237
mogli bi uzeti u obzir činjenicu da bi možda
08:57
want to allocate who actually gets to use
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2311
željeli raspodijeliti tko bi trebao zapravo korisiti
08:59
some of these antibiotics over others,
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2714
neke od tih antibiotika od drugih,
09:02
and some of these might have to be on the basis of clinical need,
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3326
i to bi mogli biti na bazi kliničke potrebe
09:05
but also on the basis of pricing.
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1935
ali i na bazi cijene.
09:07
And certainly consumer education works.
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1910
Zasigurno i educiranje potrošača pomaže.
09:09
Very often, people overuse antibiotics
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2601
Veoma često, ljudi previše koriste antibiotike
09:12
or prescribe too much without necessarily
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2277
ili previše propisuju bez da, nužno,
09:14
knowing that they do so,
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1606
znaju da to rade
09:16
and feedback mechanisms
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pa su se mehanizmi koji daju podatke o rezultatima
09:17
have been found to be useful,
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1902
pokazali korisnima,
09:19
both on energy —
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1929
također, i na energiji-
09:21
When you tell someone that they're using
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1540
kada kažete nekome da troši
09:23
a lot of energy during peak hour,
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1917
puno energije tijekom špice,
09:24
they tend to cut back,
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1470
skloni su smanjiti potrošnju,
09:26
and the same sort of example has been performed
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1767
i isti je primjer izveden
09:28
even in the case of antibiotics.
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1810
i u slučaju antibiotika.
09:29
A hospital in St. Louis basically would put up
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1981
Bolnica u St. Louisu bi, u biti, postavila
09:31
on a chart the names of surgeons
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571974
4192
na tablu imena kirurga
09:36
in the ordering of how much antibiotics they'd used
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576166
2219
poredana po tome koliko su antibiotika koristili
09:38
in the previous month,
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578385
1944
u prethodnom mjesecu,
09:40
and this was purely an informational feedback,
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580329
2342
i to je čisto bila povratna informacija,
09:42
there was no shaming,
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1183
nije bilo nikakvog posramljivanja,
09:43
but essentially that provided some information back
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2135
nego je, u osnovi, pružilo neke informacije
09:45
to surgeons that maybe they could rethink
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585989
1954
kirurzima i možda ih potaklo da razmisle
09:47
how they were using antibiotics.
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587943
2229
kako koriste antibiotike.
09:50
Now, there's a lot that can be done
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590172
2014
Također je mnogo toga moguće napraviti
09:52
on the supply side as well.
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2149
s aspekta opskrbe.
09:54
If you look at the price of penicillin,
232
594335
1777
Ako pogledate cijenu penicilina,
09:56
the cost per day is about 10 cents.
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1651
trošak po danu iznosi oko 10 centa.
09:57
It's a fairly cheap drug.
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1758
To je relativno jeftin lijek.
09:59
If you take drugs that have been introduced since then —
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2137
Ako uzmete lijekove otkrivene od tada-
10:01
linezolid or daptomycin —
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2644
linezolid ili daptomicin-
10:04
those are significantly more expensive,
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1878
oni su značajno skuplji,
10:06
so to a world that has been used to paying 10 cents a day for antibiotics,
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5451
tako da se svijetu naviknutom plaćati 10 centi po danu za antibiotike,
10:11
the idea of paying 180 dollars per day
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2530
ideja plaćanja 180 dolara po danu
10:14
seems like a lot.
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614163
1567
čini puno.
10:15
But what is that really telling us?
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615730
1987
No, što nam to zapravo govori?
10:17
That price is telling us
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617717
1965
Cijena nam govori
10:19
that we should no longer
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619682
1898
da više ne bi trebali
10:21
take cheap, effective antibiotics as a given
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4117
uzimati jeftine, učinkovite antibiotike zdravo za gotovo
10:25
into the foreseeable future,
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625697
1767
u doglednoj budućnosti,
10:27
and that price is a signal to us
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2530
i cijena nam je signal
10:29
that perhaps we need to be paying
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1609
da bi možda trebali obraćati
10:31
much more attention to conservation.
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2553
puno više pažnje očuvanju.
10:34
That price is also a signal
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2704
Cijena je, također, signal
10:36
that maybe we need to start looking at other technologies,
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2875
da bi možda trebali početi gledati na druge tehnologije,
10:39
in the same way that gasoline prices are a signal
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2652
na isti način na koji su cijene benzina signal
10:42
and an impetus, to, say,
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2590
i pokretna sila za, na primjer,
10:44
the development of electric cars.
253
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1868
razvoj električnih auta.
10:46
Prices are important signals
254
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1777
Cijene su važan signal
10:48
and we need to pay attention,
255
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1586
i moramo obratiti pozornost,
10:50
but we also need to consider the fact that
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2452
ali, isto tako moramo u obzir uzeti činjenicu da
10:52
although these high prices seem unusual for antibiotics,
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4252
iako se ove visoke cijene čine neobičnima za antibiotike,
10:56
they're nothing compared to the price per day
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2239
zanemarive su u usporedbi s dnevnim cijenama
10:59
of some cancer drugs,
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1384
nekih lijekova za rak,
11:00
which might save a patient's life only for a few months or perhaps a year,
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660535
3370
koji mogu spasiti pacijentov život samo za nekoliko mjeseci ili možda godinu,
11:03
whereas antibiotics would potentially
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663905
1770
dok bi antibiotici, potencijalno,
11:05
save a patient's life forever.
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1826
spasili pacijentov život zauvijek.
11:07
So this is going to involve
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1319
Tako da će ovo uključivati
11:08
a whole new paradigm shift,
264
668820
1962
potpuno novi preokret u pristupu,
11:10
and it's also a scary shift because
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670782
1856
to je, također, zastrašujuć preokret jer
11:12
in many parts of this country,
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2329
u mnogim djelovima ove zemlje,
11:14
in many parts of the world,
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1744
u mnogim djelovima svijeta,
11:16
the idea of paying 200 dollars
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2069
ideja plaćanja 200 dolara
11:18
for a day of antibiotic treatment
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2891
za dan liječenja antibioticima
11:21
is simply unimaginable.
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2542
je jednostavno nezamisliva.
11:24
So we need to think about that.
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1734
Trebamo razmisliti o tome.
11:25
Now, there are backstop options,
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1813
Postoje opcije zaštitne mreže,
11:27
which is other alternative technologies
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2676
odnosno, druge alternativne tehnologije
11:30
that people are working on.
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1194
na kojima ljudi rade.
11:31
It includes bacteriophages, probiotics,
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2652
One uključuju bakteriofage, probiotike,
11:34
quorum sensing, synbiotics.
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4048
međustanična komunikacija, sinbiotici.
11:38
Now, all of these are useful avenues to pursue,
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3039
Sve su to korisni putevi koje treba istražiti
11:41
and they will become even more lucrative
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701369
2610
i postati će još unosniji
11:43
when the price of new antibiotics starts going higher,
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3081
kada cijena novih antibiotika počne rasti,
11:47
and we've seen that the market does actually respond,
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2897
a vidjeli smo da tržište odgovara,
11:49
and the government is now considering
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709957
2008
i vlada sada razmatra
11:51
ways of subsidizing new antibiotics and development.
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711965
3767
načine poticanja razvoja novih antibiotika.
11:55
But there are challenges here.
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1723
Ali tu postoje izazovi.
11:57
We don't want to just throw money at a problem.
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1575
Ne želimo samo bacati novac.
11:59
What we want to be able to do
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1519
Želimo biti u mogućnosti
12:00
is invest in new antibiotics
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720549
2279
uložiti u novi antibiotik
12:02
in ways that actually encourage
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722828
2976
na načine da zapravo ohrabrimo
12:05
appropriate use and sales of those antibiotics,
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3020
umjesnu upotrebu i prodaju tih antibiotika,
12:08
and that really is the challenge here.
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2463
a upravo je to izazov.
12:11
Now, going back to these technologies,
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2329
Vraćajući se na te tehnologije,
12:13
you all remember the line from that famous
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733616
2363
svi ćete se prisjetiti rečenice iz onog poznatog
12:15
dinosaur film, "Nature will find a way."
292
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2226
filma o dinosaurima: "Priroda će pronaći put."
12:18
So it's not as if these are permanent solutions.
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3319
Tako da ovo nisu trajna rješenja.
12:21
We really have to remember that, whatever the technology might be,
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4086
Stvarno to moramo zapamtiti, kakva god tehnologija bila,
12:25
that nature will find some way to work around it.
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2876
priroda će naći način kako ju izbjeći.
12:28
You might think, well, this is just a problem
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2071
Mogli bi pomisliti da je ovo problem
12:30
just with antibiotics and with bacteria,
297
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2744
samo sa antibioticima i bakterijama,
12:33
but it turns out that we have the exact same
298
753301
1946
ali ispostavilo se da imamo točno isti,
12:35
identical problem in many other fields as well,
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755247
2734
identični problem i u mnogim drugim područjima,
12:37
with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis,
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2952
s tuberkulozom otpornom na više lijekova,
12:40
which is a serious problem in India and South Africa.
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3562
što je ozbiljan problem u Indiji i Južnoj Africi.
12:44
Thousands of patients are dying because
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764495
1787
Tisuće pacijenata umire jer
12:46
the second-line drugs are so expensive,
303
766282
1834
su zamjenski lijekovi toliko skupi,
12:48
and in some instances, even those don't work
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768116
2227
a, u nekim slučajevima, ni oni ne djeluju
12:50
and you have XDR TB.
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2070
i imate ekstremno otpornu tuberkulozu.
12:52
Viruses are becoming resistant.
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772413
1811
Virusi postaju rezistentni.
12:54
Agricultural pests. Malaria parasites.
307
774224
3166
Poljoprivredni štetnici. Paraziti malarije.
12:57
Right now, much of the world depends on
308
777390
1783
Trenutno, veliki dio svijeta ovisi o
12:59
one drug, artemisinin drugs,
309
779173
3697
jednom lijeku, artemisininima,
13:02
essentially to treat malaria.
310
782870
1956
za liječenje malarije.
13:04
Resistance to artemisinin has already emerged,
311
784826
2587
Otpornost na artemisinin se već pojavila
13:07
and if this were to become widespread,
312
787413
2354
i ako ona postane široko rasprostranjena,
13:09
that puts at risk
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789767
1348
riskiramo
13:11
the single drug that we have to treat malaria around the world
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2891
jedini lijek koji imamo za liječenje malarije širom svijeta
13:14
in a way that's currently safe and efficacious.
315
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3214
na siguran i efikasan način.
13:17
Mosquitos develop resistance.
316
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1798
Komarci razvijaju otpornost.
13:19
If you have kids, you probably know about head lice,
317
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2237
Ako imate djecu, vjerojatno znate za uši,
13:21
and if you're from New York City,
318
801255
1713
a ako ste iz New Yorka,
13:22
I understand that the specialty there is bedbugs.
319
802968
2733
znam da su tamo specijalnost stjenice.
13:25
So those are also resistant.
320
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2255
One su također rezistentne.
13:27
And we have to bring an example from across the pond.
321
807956
2879
Moramo proučiti i primjer preko bare.
13:30
Turns out that rats are also resistant to poisons.
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2355
Ispada da su i štakori otporni na otrove.
13:33
Now, what's common to all of these things is
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813190
2701
Ono što je zajedničko svim ovim stvarima je
13:35
the idea that we've had these technologies
324
815891
2706
da smo imali ove tehnologije
13:38
to control nature only for the last 70, 80 or 100 years
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818597
4621
za kontrolu prirode samo za proteklih 70, 80 ili 100 godina
13:43
and essentially in a blink,
326
823218
3028
i u trenutku
13:46
we have squandered our ability to control,
327
826246
2551
smo potratili našu mogućnost kontrole,
13:48
because we have not recognized
328
828797
2491
jer nismo prepoznali da će
13:51
that natural selection and evolution was going to find
329
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2812
prirodna selekcija i evolucija pronaći
13:54
a way to get back,
330
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1174
način da se osveti,
13:55
and we need to completely rethink
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835274
2049
i moramo potpuno promisliti
13:57
how we're going to use
332
837323
2343
kako ćemo koristiti
13:59
measures to control biological organisms,
333
839666
3094
mjere za kontrolu bioloških organizama,
14:02
and rethink how we incentivize
334
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3464
i promisliti kako ćemo poticati
14:06
the development, introduction,
335
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2226
razvoj, uvođenje,
14:08
in the case of antibiotics prescription,
336
848450
2668
u slučaju propisivanja antibiotika
14:11
and use of these valuable resources.
337
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3772
i korištenje vrijednih resursa.
14:14
And we really now need to start thinking about them
338
854890
2380
I sada stvarno trebamo početi razmišljati o njima
14:17
as natural resources.
339
857270
1958
kao o prirodnim resursima.
14:19
And so we stand at a crossroads.
340
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2238
I tako stojimo na raskrižju.
14:21
An option is to go through that rethinking
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3159
Opcija je proći kroz ta razmišljanja
14:24
and carefully consider incentives
342
864625
1813
i pažljivo razmotriti poticaje
14:26
to change how we do business.
343
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2554
kako bi promijenili način poslovanja.
14:28
The alternative is
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868992
2261
Alternativa je
14:31
a world in which even a blade of grass
345
871253
3083
svijet u kojem je čak i vlat trave
14:34
is a potentially lethal weapon.
346
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2429
potencijalno smrtonosno oružje.
14:36
Thank you.
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876765
1800
Hvala.
14:38
(Applause)
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2735
(Pljesak)
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