Ramanan Laxminarayan: The coming crisis in antibiotics

105,385 views ・ 2014-11-10

TED


Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove ispod za reprodukciju videozapisa.

Prevoditelj: Katarina Licht Recezent: Ivan Stamenković
00:12
The first patient to ever be treated with an antibiotic
0
12602
3558
Prvi pacijent liječen antibioticima
00:16
was a policeman in Oxford.
1
16160
1533
bio je policajac u Oxfordu.
00:17
On his day off from work,
2
17693
2107
Na njegov slobodan dan,
00:19
he was scratched by a rose thorn while working in the garden.
3
19800
3373
ogrebao se o trn ruže radeći u vrtu.
00:23
That small scratch became infected.
4
23173
3675
Ta je mala ogrebotina postala inficirana.
00:26
Over the next few days, his head was swollen
5
26848
2315
Tijekom sljedećih dana, glava mu je natekla
00:29
with abscesses,
6
29163
1721
od gnojnih čireva
00:30
and in fact his eye was so infected
7
30884
2283
i oko mu je bilo toliko inficirano
00:33
that they had to take it out,
8
33167
1903
da su mu ga morali izvaditi.
00:35
and by February of 1941,
9
35070
2980
Do kraja veljače 1941. godine,
00:38
this poor man was on the verge of dying.
10
38050
2437
ovaj je jadni čovjek bio na rubu smrti.
00:40
He was at Radcliffe Infirmary in Oxford,
11
40487
3198
Nalazio se u Radcliffe ambulanti u Oxfordu
00:43
and fortunately for him,
12
43685
2306
i, na njegovu sreću,
00:45
a small team of doctors
13
45991
1050
mali tim liječnika
00:47
led by a Dr. Howard Florey
14
47041
1889
predvođen doktorom Howardom Floreyem
00:48
had managed to synthesize
15
48930
2067
uspio je sintetizirati
00:50
a very small amount of penicillin,
16
50997
2823
veoma malu količinu penicilina,
00:53
a drug that had been discovered
17
53820
2081
lijeka kojeg je otkrio
00:55
12 years before by Alexander Fleming
18
55901
2322
Alexander Fleming 12 godina prije,
00:58
but had never actually been used to treat a human,
19
58223
3707
ali nikada nije primijenjen na čovjeka
01:01
and indeed no one even knew if the drug would work,
20
61930
2410
i nitko nije znao hoće li lijek djelovati,
01:04
if it was full of impurities that would kill the patient,
21
64340
3640
sadrži li nečistoće koje bi mogle ubiti pacijenta,
01:07
but Florey and his team figured
22
67980
1914
ali su Florey i njegov tim shvatili
01:09
if they had to use it, they might as well use it
23
69894
1722
da ako već moraju, mogli bi ga upotrijebiti
01:11
on someone who was going to die anyway.
24
71616
2565
na nekome tko će svakako umrijeti.
01:14
So they gave Albert Alexander,
25
74181
3655
Tako su Albertu Alexanderu,
01:17
this Oxford policeman, the drug,
26
77836
2879
oxfordskom policajcu, dali lijek
01:20
and within 24 hours,
27
80715
2417
i unutar 24 sata,
01:23
he started getting better.
28
83132
2262
počeo se oporavljati.
01:25
His fever went down, his appetite came back.
29
85394
3976
Spustila mu se temperatura, vratio mu se apetit.
01:29
Second day, he was doing much better.
30
89370
2313
Drugog mu je dana bilo puno bolje.
01:31
They were starting to run out of penicillin,
31
91683
2238
Počelo im je nedostajati penicilina
01:33
so what they would do was run with his urine
32
93921
2062
pa bi trčali s njegovim urinom
01:35
across the road to re-synthesize the penicillin from his urine
33
95983
2850
preko ceste, kako bi resintetizirali penicilin iz njegova urina
01:38
and give it back to him,
34
98833
1935
i ponovno mu ga dali,
01:40
and that worked.
35
100768
1248
i to je uspijevalo.
01:42
Day four, well on the way to recovery.
36
102016
2480
Četvrti je dan bio na dobrom putu oporavka.
01:44
This was a miracle.
37
104496
1638
To je bilo čudo.
01:46
Day five, they ran out of penicillin,
38
106134
4236
Peti dan su ostali bez penicilina
01:50
and the poor man died.
39
110370
2267
i siroti je čovjek preminuo.
01:52
So that story didn't end that well,
40
112637
2713
Tako da ta priča nije završila baš lijepo,
01:55
but fortunately for millions of other people,
41
115350
4350
ali, na sreću milijuna drugih ljudi,
01:59
like this child who was treated again in the early 1940s,
42
119700
3006
kao ovog djeteta liječenog u ranim 1940-ima,
02:02
who was again dying of a sepsis,
43
122706
3034
koje je umiralo od sepse
02:05
and within just six days, you can see,
44
125740
3150
i koje se u samo šest dana, kao što možete vidjeti,
02:08
recovered thanks to this wonder drug, penicillin.
45
128890
3353
oporavilo zahvaljujući ovom čudesnom lijeku, penicilinu.
02:12
Millions have lived,
46
132243
1958
Milijuni su preživjeli
02:14
and global health has been transformed.
47
134201
3584
i globalno zdravstvo se transformiralo.
02:17
Now, antibiotics have been used
48
137785
2793
Antibiotici su se koristili
02:20
for patients like this,
49
140578
3127
za pacijente poput ovih,
02:23
but they've also been used rather frivolously
50
143705
2137
ali korišteni su i veoma neozbiljno
02:25
in some instances,
51
145842
1744
u nekim slučajevima,
02:27
for treating someone with just a cold or the flu,
52
147586
2363
za liječenje samo prehlade ili gripe,
02:29
which they might not have responded to an antibiotic,
53
149949
2474
koje ne bi reagirale na antibiotik.
02:32
and they've also been used in large quantities
54
152423
3738
Također su korišteni u velikim količinama
02:36
sub-therapeutically, which means in small concentrations,
55
156161
3642
ne-terapeutski, odnosno u malim koncentracijama
02:39
to make chicken and hogs grow faster.
56
159803
3183
za brži rast pilića i svinja.
02:42
Just to save a few pennies on the price of meat,
57
162986
3566
Samo kako bi smanjili cijenu mesa za nekoliko penija,
02:46
we've spent a lot of antibiotics on animals,
58
166552
2700
potrošili smo mnogo antibiotika na životinje,
02:49
not for treatment, not for sick animals,
59
169252
2362
ne za liječenje, ne za bolesne životinje,
02:51
but primarily for growth promotion.
60
171614
3116
već prvenstveno za potpomognut rast.
02:54
Now, what did that lead us to?
61
174730
2857
Kamo nas je to dovelo sada?
02:57
Basically, the massive use of antibiotics
62
177587
2711
U osnovi, masivna upotreba antibiotika
03:00
around the world
63
180298
1485
diljem svijeta
03:01
has imposed such large selection pressure on bacteria
64
181783
3804
nametnula je tako veliki selektivni pritisak na bakterije
03:05
that resistance is now a problem,
65
185587
2653
da je sada otpornost postala problem
03:08
because we've now selected for just
66
188240
1770
jer su opstale samo
03:10
the resistant bacteria.
67
190010
1975
rezistentne bakterije.
03:11
And I'm sure you've all read about this in the newspapers,
68
191985
2840
Siguran sam da ste svi čitali o ovome u novinama,
03:14
you've seen this in every magazine
69
194825
1804
da ste vidjeli ovo u svakom časopisu
03:16
that you come across,
70
196629
1899
na koji ste naišli,
03:18
but I really want you to appreciate
71
198528
1800
ali stvarno želim da u potpunosti shvatite
03:20
the significance of this problem.
72
200328
2171
važnost ovog problema
03:22
This is serious.
73
202499
1451
Ovo je ozbiljno.
03:23
The next slide I'm about to show you is of carbapenem resistance in acinetobacter.
74
203950
4816
Sljedeći dijapozitiv prikazuje otpornost acinetobactera na karbapenem.
03:28
Acinetobacter is a nasty hospital bug,
75
208766
2388
Acinetobacter je gadna bolnička bakterija,
03:31
and carbapenem is pretty much
76
211154
1333
i karbapenem je poprilično
03:32
the strongest class of antibiotics
77
212487
1778
najjača vrsta antibiotika
03:34
that we can throw at this bug.
78
214265
2456
kojom možemo napasti ovu bakteriju.
03:36
And you can see in 1999
79
216721
3269
Možete vidjeti da je u 1999.
03:39
this is the pattern of resistance,
80
219990
2195
ovo bio uzorak otpornosti.
03:42
mostly under about 10 percent across the United States.
81
222185
3033
većinom ispod 10 posto širom Sjedinjenih Država.
03:45
Now watch what happens when we play the video.
82
225218
3997
Sada pogledajte što se događa kada pokrenemo video.
03:58
So I don't know where you live,
83
238461
2055
Ne znam gdje živite,
04:00
but wherever it is, it certainly is a lot worse now
84
240516
2902
ali gdjegod to bilo, zasigurno je puno gore sada
04:03
than it was in 1999,
85
243418
2497
nego što je bilo 1999. godine.
04:05
and that is the problem of antibiotic resistance.
86
245915
3971
To je problem s otpornošću na antibiotike.
04:09
It's a global issue
87
249886
1687
Ovo je globalno pitanje
04:11
affecting both rich and poor countries,
88
251573
2428
koji jednako pogađa i bogate i siromašne zemlje,
04:14
and at the heart of it, you might say, well,
89
254001
2241
i u njegovoj srži, mogli biste pitati
04:16
isn't this really just a medical issue?
90
256242
1928
nije li to zapravo samo medicinski problem?
04:18
If we taught doctors how not to use antibiotics as much,
91
258170
2561
Ako bismo naučili doktore ne koristiti antibiotike toliko,
04:20
if we taught patients how not to demand antibiotics,
92
260731
2945
ako bismo naučili pacijente ne zahtijevati antibiotike,
04:23
perhaps this really wouldn't be an issue,
93
263676
1455
možda ovo zapravo ne bi bio problem
04:25
and maybe the pharmaceutical companies
94
265131
1989
i možda bi farmaceutske kompanije
04:27
should be working harder to develop
95
267120
1755
trebale više raditi na razvoju
04:28
more antibiotics.
96
268875
1636
više antibiotika.
04:30
Now, it turns out that there's something fundamental about antibiotics
97
270511
3379
No, ispada da postoji nešto fundamentalno u vezi s antibioticima
04:33
which makes it different from other drugs,
98
273890
1783
što ih razlikuje od drugih lijekova,
04:35
which is that if I misuse antibiotics
99
275673
2021
a to je da ako ja zloupotrijebim antibiotike
04:37
or I use antibiotics,
100
277694
1737
ili ako koristim antibiotike,
04:39
not only am I affected but others are affected as well,
101
279431
3860
nisam samo ja pogođen, već su i drugi ljudi pogođeni
04:43
in the same way as if I choose to drive to work
102
283291
2338
na isti način kao da odlučim odvesti se na posao
04:45
or take a plane to go somewhere,
103
285629
2639
ili otići negdje avionom,
04:48
that the costs I impose on others
104
288268
1974
troškovi koje nametnem drugima
04:50
through global climate change go everywhere,
105
290242
2440
kroz globalne klimatske promjene prisutni su svugdje
04:52
and I don't necessarily take these costs into consideration.
106
292682
2773
i ja ne uzimam, nužno, te troškove u obzir.
04:55
This is what economists might call a problem of the commons,
107
295455
2879
Ovo je ono što bi ekonomisti mogli nazvati problemom zajednice,
04:58
and the problem of the commons is exactly
108
298334
1980
i problem zajednice je točno
05:00
what we face in the case of antibiotics as well:
109
300314
2425
ono s čim se suočavamo i u slučaju antibiotika:
05:02
that we don't consider —
110
302739
2150
da ne uzimamo u obzir —
05:04
and we, including individuals, patients,
111
304889
3002
i mi, uključujući pojedince, pacijente,
05:07
hospitals, entire health systems —
112
307891
3159
bolnice, čitav zdravstveni sustav —
05:11
do not consider the costs that they impose on others
113
311050
2148
ne uzimamo u obzir troškove koje oni nameću drugima
05:13
by the way antibiotics are actually used.
114
313198
2356
načinom na koji su antibiotici zapravo korišteni.
05:15
Now, that's a problem that's similar
115
315554
2405
Ovaj je problem sličan
05:17
to another area that we all know about,
116
317959
1982
drugome području za koje svi znamo,
05:19
which is of fuel use and energy,
117
319941
1929
a to je upotreba goriva i energije,
05:21
and of course energy use
118
321870
1499
i naravno, upotreba energije
05:23
both depletes energy as well as
119
323369
3082
i iscrpljuje energiju kao što i
05:26
leads to local pollution and climate change.
120
326451
3262
vodi do lokalnog zagađenja i klimatskih promjena.
05:29
And typically, in the case of energy,
121
329713
1810
I tipično, u slučaju energije,
05:31
there are two ways in which you can deal with the problem.
122
331523
2308
postoje dva načina na koja se može nositi s problemom.
05:33
One is, we can make better use of the oil that we have,
123
333831
3745
Jedan je da bolje koristimo naftu koju imamo,
05:37
and that's analogous to making better use
124
337576
2115
što je analogno boljoj upotrebi
05:39
of existing antibiotics,
125
339691
1548
postojećih antibiotika,
05:41
and we can do this in a number of ways
126
341239
1691
a to možemo učiniti na brojne načine
05:42
that we'll talk about in a second,
127
342930
2230
o kojima ćemo pričati ubrzo,
05:45
but the other option is the "drill, baby, drill" option,
128
345160
3687
dok je druga opcija poticanje traženja novih naftnih bušotina,
05:48
which in the case of antibiotics is to go find new antibiotics.
129
348847
4191
odnosno, u slučaju antibiotika, traženje novih antibiotika.
05:53
Now, these are not separate.
130
353050
2050
Ovo dva načina nisu odvojena.
05:55
They're related, because if we invest heavily
131
355100
3422
Povezani su, jer ako mnogo ulažemo
05:58
in new oil wells,
132
358522
2284
u nove naftne bušotine,
06:00
we reduce the incentives for conservation of oil
133
360806
2954
smanjujemo poticaje za očuvanje nafte
06:03
in the same way that's going to happen for antibiotics.
134
363760
2526
i to će se na isti način dogoditi s antibioticima.
06:06
The reverse is also going to happen, which is that
135
366286
2168
Događa se i obrnuto,
06:08
if we use our antibiotics appropriately,
136
368454
2338
ako prigodno koristimo naše antibiotike,
06:10
we don't necessarily have to make the investments
137
370792
2781
ne moramo nužno ulagati
06:13
in new drug development.
138
373573
2177
u razvoj novih lijekova.
06:15
And if you thought that these two were entirely,
139
375750
2716
Ako ste mislili da je ovo dvoje u cjelosti,
06:18
fully balanced between these two options,
140
378466
1822
potpuno balansirano između ove dvije opcije,
06:20
you might consider the fact that
141
380288
2183
mogli bi razmotriti činjenicu da
06:22
this is really a game that we're playing.
142
382471
2272
je ovo zapravo igra koju igramo.
06:24
The game is really one of coevolution,
143
384743
2441
To je zapravo igra koevolucije,
06:27
and coevolution is, in this particular picture,
144
387184
2932
a koevolucija je, na ovoj slici,
06:30
between cheetahs and gazelles.
145
390116
2356
između geparda i gazela.
06:32
Cheetahs have evolved to run faster,
146
392472
1618
Gepardi su evoluirali tako da trče brže,
06:34
because if they didn't run faster,
147
394090
1577
jer da ne trče brže
06:35
they wouldn't get any lunch.
148
395667
1946
ne bi imali što jesti za ručak.
06:37
Gazelles have evolved to run faster because
149
397613
2687
Gazele su evoluirale da trče brže jer
06:40
if they don't run faster, they would be lunch.
150
400300
3209
ako ne bi trčale brže, one bi postale ručak.
06:43
Now, this is the game we're playing against the bacteria,
151
403509
2886
To je igra koju mi igramo protiv bakterija,
06:46
except we're not the cheetahs,
152
406395
2057
samo što mi nismo gepardi,
06:48
we're the gazelles,
153
408452
1477
mi smo gazele,
06:49
and the bacteria would,
154
409929
2787
i bakterija bi,
06:52
just in the course of this little talk,
155
412716
1833
samo za vrijeme ovog kratkog govora,
06:54
would have had kids and grandkids
156
414549
1426
dobila djecu i unuke,
06:55
and figured out how to be resistant
157
415975
2385
i shvatila kako biti rezistentna
06:58
just by selection and trial and error,
158
418360
2474
samo putem selekcije te probom i pogreškom,
07:00
trying it over and over again.
159
420834
1912
pokušavajući neprestano iznova.
07:02
Whereas how do we stay ahead of the bacteria?
160
422746
3772
S obzirom na to, kako ostati ispred bakterija?
07:06
We have drug discovery processes,
161
426518
2054
Imamo procese otkrivanja lijekova,
07:08
screening molecules,
162
428572
1630
provjeravanje molekula,
07:10
we have clinical trials,
163
430202
1728
imamo klinička ispitivanja,
07:11
and then, when we think we have a drug,
164
431930
2148
i onda kada mislimo da imamo lijek,
07:14
then we have the FDA regulatory process.
165
434078
3745
onda imamo regulatorni proces Uprave za hranu i lijekove.
07:17
And once we go through all of that,
166
437823
2178
Nakon što prođemo kroz to sve,
07:20
then we try to stay one step ahead
167
440001
2265
onda pokušavamo ostati korak ispred
07:22
of the bacteria.
168
442266
2296
bakterija.
07:24
Now, this is clearly not a game that can be sustained,
169
444562
2777
Jasno je da je ovo igra koja ne može biti održana,
07:27
or one that we can win
170
447339
1137
ili koja se može pobijediti
07:28
by simply innovating to stay ahead.
171
448476
1837
samo inovacijama kako biti u prednosti.
07:30
We've got to slow the pace of coevolution down,
172
450313
3305
Moramo usporiti tempo koevolucije,
07:33
and there are ideas that we can borrow from energy
173
453618
3682
i postoje ideje koje možemo posuditi od energije
07:37
that are helpful in thinking about
174
457300
1770
i koje su od pomoći kada razmišljamo
07:39
how we might want to do this in the case
175
459070
1537
kako bi to mogli napraviti u slučaju
07:40
of antibiotics as well.
176
460607
1546
antibiotika, također.
07:42
Now, if you think about how we deal with
177
462153
2240
Ako razmislite kako se nosimo s
07:44
energy pricing, for instance,
178
464393
1423
cijenom energije, na primjer,
07:45
we consider emissions taxes,
179
465816
1849
uzimamo u obzir porez na emisije,
07:47
which means we're imposing the costs of pollution
180
467665
2584
što znači da namećemo trošak zagađenja
07:50
on people who actually use that energy.
181
470249
2831
ljudima koji zapravo koriste tu energiju.
07:53
We might consider doing that for antibiotics as well,
182
473080
2980
Mogli bi razmotriti da isto učinimo s antibioticima,
07:56
and perhaps that would make sure that antibiotics
183
476060
2711
i možda bi to osiguralo da se antibiotici
07:58
actually get used appropriately.
184
478771
2401
zapravo umjesno koriste.
08:01
There are clean energy subsidies,
185
481172
2028
Postoje subvencije za čistu energiju,
08:03
which are to switch to fuels which don't pollute as much
186
483200
3055
koja koristi goriva koja ne zagađuju toliko
08:06
or perhaps don't need fossil fuels.
187
486255
2845
ili možda ne treba fosilna goriva.
08:09
Now, the analogy here is, perhaps we need
188
489100
2860
Analogija je slijedeća: možda se trebamo
08:11
to move away from using antibiotics,
189
491960
2260
udaljiti od upotrebe antibiotika,
08:14
and if you think about it, what are good substitutes for antibiotics?
190
494220
3716
i ako razmislite o tome, koje su dobre zamjene za antibiotike?
08:17
Well, turns out that anything that reduces
191
497936
2164
Izgleda da bi bilo što što smanjuje
08:20
the need for the antibiotic would really work,
192
500100
2243
potrebu za antibioticima stvarno funkcioniralo,
08:22
so that could include improving hospital infection control
193
502343
3142
tako da bi to moglo uključivati bolju kontrolu bolničkih infekcija
08:25
or vaccinating people,
194
505485
2895
ili cijepljenje ljudi,
08:28
particularly against the seasonal influenza.
195
508380
2297
pogotovo protiv sezonske gripe.
08:30
And the seasonal flu is probably
196
510677
2531
Sezonska je, gripa vjerojatno,
08:33
the biggest driver of antibiotic use,
197
513208
3004
najveći pokretač upotrebe antibiotika,
08:36
both in this country as well as in many other countries,
198
516212
2919
kako u ovoj zemlji, tako i u mnogim drugim zemljama,
08:39
and that could really help.
199
519131
2020
i to bi stvarno moglo pomoći.
08:41
A third option might include something like tradeable permits.
200
521151
4103
Treća bi opcija mogla uključiti nešto poput razmjenjivih kvota.
08:45
And these seem like faraway scenarios,
201
525254
4246
Ovo se može činiti kao daleki scenarij,
08:49
but if you consider the fact that we might not
202
529500
2427
ali ako razmotrimo činjenicu da možda
08:51
have antibiotics for many people who have infections,
203
531927
3383
nećemo imati antibiotika za mnoge ljude s infekcijama,
08:55
we might consider the fact that we might
204
535310
2237
mogli bi uzeti u obzir činjenicu da bi možda
08:57
want to allocate who actually gets to use
205
537547
2311
željeli raspodijeliti tko bi trebao zapravo korisiti
08:59
some of these antibiotics over others,
206
539858
2714
neke od tih antibiotika od drugih,
09:02
and some of these might have to be on the basis of clinical need,
207
542572
3326
i to bi mogli biti na bazi kliničke potrebe
09:05
but also on the basis of pricing.
208
545898
1935
ali i na bazi cijene.
09:07
And certainly consumer education works.
209
547833
1910
Zasigurno i educiranje potrošača pomaže.
09:09
Very often, people overuse antibiotics
210
549743
2601
Veoma često, ljudi previše koriste antibiotike
09:12
or prescribe too much without necessarily
211
552344
2277
ili previše propisuju bez da, nužno,
09:14
knowing that they do so,
212
554621
1606
znaju da to rade
09:16
and feedback mechanisms
213
556227
1431
pa su se mehanizmi koji daju podatke o rezultatima
09:17
have been found to be useful,
214
557658
1902
pokazali korisnima,
09:19
both on energy —
215
559560
1929
također, i na energiji-
09:21
When you tell someone that they're using
216
561489
1540
kada kažete nekome da troši
09:23
a lot of energy during peak hour,
217
563029
1917
puno energije tijekom špice,
09:24
they tend to cut back,
218
564946
1470
skloni su smanjiti potrošnju,
09:26
and the same sort of example has been performed
219
566416
1767
i isti je primjer izveden
09:28
even in the case of antibiotics.
220
568183
1810
i u slučaju antibiotika.
09:29
A hospital in St. Louis basically would put up
221
569993
1981
Bolnica u St. Louisu bi, u biti, postavila
09:31
on a chart the names of surgeons
222
571974
4192
na tablu imena kirurga
09:36
in the ordering of how much antibiotics they'd used
223
576166
2219
poredana po tome koliko su antibiotika koristili
09:38
in the previous month,
224
578385
1944
u prethodnom mjesecu,
09:40
and this was purely an informational feedback,
225
580329
2342
i to je čisto bila povratna informacija,
09:42
there was no shaming,
226
582671
1183
nije bilo nikakvog posramljivanja,
09:43
but essentially that provided some information back
227
583854
2135
nego je, u osnovi, pružilo neke informacije
09:45
to surgeons that maybe they could rethink
228
585989
1954
kirurzima i možda ih potaklo da razmisle
09:47
how they were using antibiotics.
229
587943
2229
kako koriste antibiotike.
09:50
Now, there's a lot that can be done
230
590172
2014
Također je mnogo toga moguće napraviti
09:52
on the supply side as well.
231
592186
2149
s aspekta opskrbe.
09:54
If you look at the price of penicillin,
232
594335
1777
Ako pogledate cijenu penicilina,
09:56
the cost per day is about 10 cents.
233
596112
1651
trošak po danu iznosi oko 10 centa.
09:57
It's a fairly cheap drug.
234
597763
1758
To je relativno jeftin lijek.
09:59
If you take drugs that have been introduced since then —
235
599521
2137
Ako uzmete lijekove otkrivene od tada-
10:01
linezolid or daptomycin —
236
601658
2644
linezolid ili daptomicin-
10:04
those are significantly more expensive,
237
604302
1878
oni su značajno skuplji,
10:06
so to a world that has been used to paying 10 cents a day for antibiotics,
238
606180
5451
tako da se svijetu naviknutom plaćati 10 centi po danu za antibiotike,
10:11
the idea of paying 180 dollars per day
239
611633
2530
ideja plaćanja 180 dolara po danu
10:14
seems like a lot.
240
614163
1567
čini puno.
10:15
But what is that really telling us?
241
615730
1987
No, što nam to zapravo govori?
10:17
That price is telling us
242
617717
1965
Cijena nam govori
10:19
that we should no longer
243
619682
1898
da više ne bi trebali
10:21
take cheap, effective antibiotics as a given
244
621580
4117
uzimati jeftine, učinkovite antibiotike zdravo za gotovo
10:25
into the foreseeable future,
245
625697
1767
u doglednoj budućnosti,
10:27
and that price is a signal to us
246
627464
2530
i cijena nam je signal
10:29
that perhaps we need to be paying
247
629994
1609
da bi možda trebali obraćati
10:31
much more attention to conservation.
248
631603
2553
puno više pažnje očuvanju.
10:34
That price is also a signal
249
634156
2704
Cijena je, također, signal
10:36
that maybe we need to start looking at other technologies,
250
636860
2875
da bi možda trebali početi gledati na druge tehnologije,
10:39
in the same way that gasoline prices are a signal
251
639735
2652
na isti način na koji su cijene benzina signal
10:42
and an impetus, to, say,
252
642387
2590
i pokretna sila za, na primjer,
10:44
the development of electric cars.
253
644977
1868
razvoj električnih auta.
10:46
Prices are important signals
254
646845
1777
Cijene su važan signal
10:48
and we need to pay attention,
255
648622
1586
i moramo obratiti pozornost,
10:50
but we also need to consider the fact that
256
650208
2452
ali, isto tako moramo u obzir uzeti činjenicu da
10:52
although these high prices seem unusual for antibiotics,
257
652660
4252
iako se ove visoke cijene čine neobičnima za antibiotike,
10:56
they're nothing compared to the price per day
258
656912
2239
zanemarive su u usporedbi s dnevnim cijenama
10:59
of some cancer drugs,
259
659151
1384
nekih lijekova za rak,
11:00
which might save a patient's life only for a few months or perhaps a year,
260
660535
3370
koji mogu spasiti pacijentov život samo za nekoliko mjeseci ili možda godinu,
11:03
whereas antibiotics would potentially
261
663905
1770
dok bi antibiotici, potencijalno,
11:05
save a patient's life forever.
262
665675
1826
spasili pacijentov život zauvijek.
11:07
So this is going to involve
263
667501
1319
Tako da će ovo uključivati
11:08
a whole new paradigm shift,
264
668820
1962
potpuno novi preokret u pristupu,
11:10
and it's also a scary shift because
265
670782
1856
to je, također, zastrašujuć preokret jer
11:12
in many parts of this country,
266
672638
2329
u mnogim djelovima ove zemlje,
11:14
in many parts of the world,
267
674967
1744
u mnogim djelovima svijeta,
11:16
the idea of paying 200 dollars
268
676711
2069
ideja plaćanja 200 dolara
11:18
for a day of antibiotic treatment
269
678780
2891
za dan liječenja antibioticima
11:21
is simply unimaginable.
270
681671
2542
je jednostavno nezamisliva.
11:24
So we need to think about that.
271
684213
1734
Trebamo razmisliti o tome.
11:25
Now, there are backstop options,
272
685947
1813
Postoje opcije zaštitne mreže,
11:27
which is other alternative technologies
273
687760
2676
odnosno, druge alternativne tehnologije
11:30
that people are working on.
274
690436
1194
na kojima ljudi rade.
11:31
It includes bacteriophages, probiotics,
275
691630
2652
One uključuju bakteriofage, probiotike,
11:34
quorum sensing, synbiotics.
276
694282
4048
međustanična komunikacija, sinbiotici.
11:38
Now, all of these are useful avenues to pursue,
277
698330
3039
Sve su to korisni putevi koje treba istražiti
11:41
and they will become even more lucrative
278
701369
2610
i postati će još unosniji
11:43
when the price of new antibiotics starts going higher,
279
703979
3081
kada cijena novih antibiotika počne rasti,
11:47
and we've seen that the market does actually respond,
280
707060
2897
a vidjeli smo da tržište odgovara,
11:49
and the government is now considering
281
709957
2008
i vlada sada razmatra
11:51
ways of subsidizing new antibiotics and development.
282
711965
3767
načine poticanja razvoja novih antibiotika.
11:55
But there are challenges here.
283
715732
1723
Ali tu postoje izazovi.
11:57
We don't want to just throw money at a problem.
284
717455
1575
Ne želimo samo bacati novac.
11:59
What we want to be able to do
285
719030
1519
Želimo biti u mogućnosti
12:00
is invest in new antibiotics
286
720549
2279
uložiti u novi antibiotik
12:02
in ways that actually encourage
287
722828
2976
na načine da zapravo ohrabrimo
12:05
appropriate use and sales of those antibiotics,
288
725804
3020
umjesnu upotrebu i prodaju tih antibiotika,
12:08
and that really is the challenge here.
289
728824
2463
a upravo je to izazov.
12:11
Now, going back to these technologies,
290
731287
2329
Vraćajući se na te tehnologije,
12:13
you all remember the line from that famous
291
733616
2363
svi ćete se prisjetiti rečenice iz onog poznatog
12:15
dinosaur film, "Nature will find a way."
292
735979
2226
filma o dinosaurima: "Priroda će pronaći put."
12:18
So it's not as if these are permanent solutions.
293
738205
3319
Tako da ovo nisu trajna rješenja.
12:21
We really have to remember that, whatever the technology might be,
294
741524
4086
Stvarno to moramo zapamtiti, kakva god tehnologija bila,
12:25
that nature will find some way to work around it.
295
745610
2876
priroda će naći način kako ju izbjeći.
12:28
You might think, well, this is just a problem
296
748486
2071
Mogli bi pomisliti da je ovo problem
12:30
just with antibiotics and with bacteria,
297
750557
2744
samo sa antibioticima i bakterijama,
12:33
but it turns out that we have the exact same
298
753301
1946
ali ispostavilo se da imamo točno isti,
12:35
identical problem in many other fields as well,
299
755247
2734
identični problem i u mnogim drugim područjima,
12:37
with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis,
300
757981
2952
s tuberkulozom otpornom na više lijekova,
12:40
which is a serious problem in India and South Africa.
301
760933
3562
što je ozbiljan problem u Indiji i Južnoj Africi.
12:44
Thousands of patients are dying because
302
764495
1787
Tisuće pacijenata umire jer
12:46
the second-line drugs are so expensive,
303
766282
1834
su zamjenski lijekovi toliko skupi,
12:48
and in some instances, even those don't work
304
768116
2227
a, u nekim slučajevima, ni oni ne djeluju
12:50
and you have XDR TB.
305
770343
2070
i imate ekstremno otpornu tuberkulozu.
12:52
Viruses are becoming resistant.
306
772413
1811
Virusi postaju rezistentni.
12:54
Agricultural pests. Malaria parasites.
307
774224
3166
Poljoprivredni štetnici. Paraziti malarije.
12:57
Right now, much of the world depends on
308
777390
1783
Trenutno, veliki dio svijeta ovisi o
12:59
one drug, artemisinin drugs,
309
779173
3697
jednom lijeku, artemisininima,
13:02
essentially to treat malaria.
310
782870
1956
za liječenje malarije.
13:04
Resistance to artemisinin has already emerged,
311
784826
2587
Otpornost na artemisinin se već pojavila
13:07
and if this were to become widespread,
312
787413
2354
i ako ona postane široko rasprostranjena,
13:09
that puts at risk
313
789767
1348
riskiramo
13:11
the single drug that we have to treat malaria around the world
314
791115
2891
jedini lijek koji imamo za liječenje malarije širom svijeta
13:14
in a way that's currently safe and efficacious.
315
794006
3214
na siguran i efikasan način.
13:17
Mosquitos develop resistance.
316
797220
1798
Komarci razvijaju otpornost.
13:19
If you have kids, you probably know about head lice,
317
799018
2237
Ako imate djecu, vjerojatno znate za uši,
13:21
and if you're from New York City,
318
801255
1713
a ako ste iz New Yorka,
13:22
I understand that the specialty there is bedbugs.
319
802968
2733
znam da su tamo specijalnost stjenice.
13:25
So those are also resistant.
320
805701
2255
One su također rezistentne.
13:27
And we have to bring an example from across the pond.
321
807956
2879
Moramo proučiti i primjer preko bare.
13:30
Turns out that rats are also resistant to poisons.
322
810835
2355
Ispada da su i štakori otporni na otrove.
13:33
Now, what's common to all of these things is
323
813190
2701
Ono što je zajedničko svim ovim stvarima je
13:35
the idea that we've had these technologies
324
815891
2706
da smo imali ove tehnologije
13:38
to control nature only for the last 70, 80 or 100 years
325
818597
4621
za kontrolu prirode samo za proteklih 70, 80 ili 100 godina
13:43
and essentially in a blink,
326
823218
3028
i u trenutku
13:46
we have squandered our ability to control,
327
826246
2551
smo potratili našu mogućnost kontrole,
13:48
because we have not recognized
328
828797
2491
jer nismo prepoznali da će
13:51
that natural selection and evolution was going to find
329
831288
2812
prirodna selekcija i evolucija pronaći
13:54
a way to get back,
330
834100
1174
način da se osveti,
13:55
and we need to completely rethink
331
835274
2049
i moramo potpuno promisliti
13:57
how we're going to use
332
837323
2343
kako ćemo koristiti
13:59
measures to control biological organisms,
333
839666
3094
mjere za kontrolu bioloških organizama,
14:02
and rethink how we incentivize
334
842760
3464
i promisliti kako ćemo poticati
14:06
the development, introduction,
335
846224
2226
razvoj, uvođenje,
14:08
in the case of antibiotics prescription,
336
848450
2668
u slučaju propisivanja antibiotika
14:11
and use of these valuable resources.
337
851118
3772
i korištenje vrijednih resursa.
14:14
And we really now need to start thinking about them
338
854890
2380
I sada stvarno trebamo početi razmišljati o njima
14:17
as natural resources.
339
857270
1958
kao o prirodnim resursima.
14:19
And so we stand at a crossroads.
340
859228
2238
I tako stojimo na raskrižju.
14:21
An option is to go through that rethinking
341
861466
3159
Opcija je proći kroz ta razmišljanja
14:24
and carefully consider incentives
342
864625
1813
i pažljivo razmotriti poticaje
14:26
to change how we do business.
343
866438
2554
kako bi promijenili način poslovanja.
14:28
The alternative is
344
868992
2261
Alternativa je
14:31
a world in which even a blade of grass
345
871253
3083
svijet u kojem je čak i vlat trave
14:34
is a potentially lethal weapon.
346
874336
2429
potencijalno smrtonosno oružje.
14:36
Thank you.
347
876765
1800
Hvala.
14:38
(Applause)
348
878565
2735
(Pljesak)
O ovoj web stranici

Ova stranica će vas upoznati s YouTube videozapisima koji su korisni za učenje engleskog jezika. Vidjet ćete lekcije engleskog koje vode vrhunski profesori iz cijelog svijeta. Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove prikazane na svakoj video stranici da biste reproducirali video s tog mjesta. Titlovi se pomiču sinkronizirano s reprodukcijom videozapisa. Ako imate bilo kakvih komentara ili zahtjeva, obratite nam se putem ovog obrasca za kontakt.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7