David Deutsch: Chemical scum that dream of distant quasars

Prevodilac: Radica Stojanović Lektor: Ivana Korom

We've been told to go out on a limb and say something surprising.

Rečeno nam je iskoračimo i kažemo nešto iznenađujuće.

So I'll try and do that,

Tako da ću ja to i pokušati.

but I want to start with two things that everyone already knows.

Ali želeo bih da počnem sa dve stvari koje svi već znaju.

And the first one, in fact, is something that has been known

Prva je, zapravo, nešto

što je poznato kroz većinu zabeležene istorije.

for most of recorded history,

and that is, that the planet Earth, or the solar system,

A to je da je planeta Zemlja ili sunčev sistem,

or our environment or whatever,

ili naša životna sredina ili šta god,

is uniquely suited to sustain our evolution --

jedinstveno osposobljena da podrži našu evoluciju -

or creation, as it used to be thought --

ili kreaciju, kao što se ranije mislilo -

and our present existence, and most important, our future survival.

i naše trenutno postojanje i što je najvažnije, naš budući opstanak.

Nowadays, this idea has a dramatic name: Spaceship Earth.

Danas ova ideja ima dramatičan naziv: Svemirski brod Zemlja.

And the idea there is that outside the spaceship,

I ideja je da je izvan tog svemirskog broda,

the universe is implacably hostile,

univerzum neumoljivo neprijateljski nastrojen,

and inside is all we have, all we depend on,

i sve što imamo je unutar tog broda, od toga zavisimo.

and we only get the one chance: if we mess up our spaceship,

I imamo samo jednu šansu: ako "zeznemo" naš svemirski brod,

we've got nowhere else to go.

nemamo kuda da idemo.

Now, the second thing that everyone already knows

Druga stvar koju svi znaju je da

is that, contrary to what was believed for most of human history,

suprotno onome u šta se verovalo kroz većinu ljudske istorije,

human beings are not, in fact, the hub of existence.

ljudska bića zapravo nisu središte egzistencije.

As Stephen Hawking famously said,

Kao što je Stiven Hoking rekao,

we're just a chemical scum on the surface of a typical planet

mi smo samo hemijski otpad na površini tipične planete

that's in orbit around a typical star,

koja se nalazi u orbiti tipične zvezde,

which is on the outskirts of a typical galaxy, and so on.

koja se nalazi na periferiji tipične galaksije, i tako dalje.

Now, the first of those two things that everyone knows is kind of saying

Prva od ove dve stvari koje svi znaju

otprilike kaže da se mi nalazimo na jednom vrlo atipičnom mestu,

that we're at a very untypical place, uniquely suited and so on.

jedinstveno pogodnom i tome slično,

And the second one is saying that we're at a typical place.

a druga kaže da smo mi na jednom tipičnom mestu.

And, especially if you regard these two as deep truths to live by

I posebno ako smatrate ove dve teze dubokim istinama,

and to inform your life decisions,

i vodiljama za život i životne odluke,

then they seem a little bit to conflict with each other.

onda izgleda da su one prilično u konfliktu jedna sa drugom.

But that doesn't prevent them from both being completely false.

Ali to ih ne sprečava da obe budu potpuno pogrešne.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And they are.

One to i jesu.

So let me start with the second one: typical.

Tako mi dozvolite da započnem ovom drugom:

Tipično. Pa - da li je ovo tipično mesto?

Well, is this a typical place?

Well, let's look around, you know, look in a random direction,

Pogledajmo okolo, znate, pogledajmo u bilo kom pravcu,

and we see a wall and chemical scum --

vidimo zid, i hemijski otpad -

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

and that's not typical of the universe at all.

to uopšte nije tipično u univerzumu.

All you've got to do is go a few hundred miles in that same direction

Sve što treba da uradite

jeste da odete nekoliko stotina kilometara u istom pravcu i da pogledate nazad,

and look back,

and you won't see any walls or chemical scum at all --

i nećete više videti ni zidove ni hemijski otpad -

all you see is a blue planet.

sve što ćete videti je plava planeta.

And if you go further than that,

A ako odete još dalje od toga,

you'll see the Sun, the solar system and the stars and so on,

videćete Sunce, sunčev sistem, zvezde i tako dalje.

but that's still not typical of the universe,

Ali to i dalje nije tipično za univerzum, jer zvezde dolaze u galaksijama.

because stars come in galaxies.

And most places in the universe, a typical place in the universe,

A većina mesta u univerzumu, tipično mesto u univerzumu,

is nowhere near any galaxies.

nije ni blizu neke galaksije.

So let's go out further, till we're outside the galaxy,

Zato krenimo dalje, dok ne stignemo izvan galaksije, i pogledamo nazad,

and look back,

and yeah, there's the huge galaxy with spiral arms laid out in front of us.

i da, vidimo ogromnu galaksiju sa spiralnim kracima koja leži ispred nas.

And at this point, we've come 100,000 light-years from here.

Sada smo udaljeni oko 100.000 svetlosnih godina odavde.

But we're still nowhere near a typical place in the universe.

Ali mi i dalje nismo ni blizu tipičnog mesta u univerzumu.

To get to a typical place,

Da bi stigli do tipičnog mesta,

you've got to go 1,000 times as far as that,

morate ići 1000 puta dalje od tog mesta u međugalaktički prostor.

into intergalactic space.

And so, what does that look like -- "typical?"

I, dakle, kako to "tipično" izgleda?

What does a "typical" place in the universe look like?

Kako izgleda tipično mesto u univerzumu?

Well, at enormous expense, TED has arranged

Uz ogroman trošak, TED je omogućio prikaz visoke rezolucije

a high-resolution immersion virtual reality rendering

u virtuelnoj realnosti

of the view from intergalactic space.

pogleda iz međugalaktičkog prostora.

Can we have the lights off, please, so we can see it?

Mogu li se ugasiti svetla, molim vas, da bismo mogli da vidimo?

Well, not quite, not quite perfect.

Pa, nije baš sasvim savršeno - vidite, u međugalaktičkom prostoru

You see, intergalactic space is completely dark, pitch dark.

je potpuni mrak, mrkli mrak.

It's so dark,

Toliko je mračno,

da ako biste gledali u najbližu zvezdu,

that if you were to be looking at the nearest star to you,

and that star were to explode as a supernova,

i da ta zvezda eksplodira kao supernova,

and you were to be staring directly at it at the moment when its light reached you,

i ako biste gledali direktno u nju u momentu kada svetlost stigne do vas

you still wouldn't be able to see even a glimmer.

i dalje ne biste bili u stanju da vidite čak ni treptaj.

That's how big and how dark the universe is.

Toliko je veliki i mračan univerzum.

And that's despite the fact that a supernova is so bright,

I to je uprkos činjenici da je supernova tako sjajan, toliko blještav događaj,

so brilliant an event,

that it would kill you stone dead at a range of several light-years.

da bi vas ubila na mestu da se nalazite do nekoliko svetlosnih godina daleko.

(Laughter)

And yet, from intergalactic space,

A ipak, iz međugalaktičkog prostora,

it's so far away you wouldn't even see it.

toliko je daleko da je ne biste čak ni videli.

It's also very cold out there --

Takođe je i vrlo hladno tamo -

less than three degrees above absolute zero.

manje od tri stepena iznad apsolutne nule.

And it's very empty.

I veoma je prazno.

The vacuum there is one million times less dense than the highest vacuum

Vakuum je tamo milion puta manje gustine

nego najjači vakuum koji se trenutno na Zemlji,

that our best technology on Earth can currently create.

uz najbolju tehnologiju može stvoriti.

So that's how different a typical place is from this place.

Eto koliko je drugačije tipično mesto od ovog mesta.

And that is how untypical this place is.

I eto koliko je ovo mesto atipično.

So can we have the lights back on please? Thank you.

Možemo li dobiti svetlo nazad, molim vas? Hvala.

Now, how do we know about an environment that's so far away and so different

Kako možemo znati nešto o okruženju koje je toliko daleko,

koje je toliko različito, toliko strano, od svega na šta smo navikli?

and so alien from anything we're used to?

Well, the Earth -- our environment, in the form of us --

E pa, Zemlja - naše okruženje, u formi nas samih - stvara znanje.

is creating knowledge.

Well, what does that mean?

Šta to znači?

Well, look out even further than we've just been --

Pa, pogledajte još dalje od mesta gde smo upravo bili -

I mean from here, with a telescope --

mislim odavde, teleskopom - videćete stvari koje liče na zvezde.

and you'll see things that look like stars, they're called quasars.

One se zovu kvazari.

"Quasars" originally meant "quasi-stellar object,"

"Kvazari" originalno znači kvazi-zvezdani objekti.

which means "things that look a bit like stars."

Što znači stvari koje pomalo liče na zvezde.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But they're not stars.

Ali oni nisu zvezde.

And we know what they are.

A mi znamo šta su.

Billions of years ago and billions of light-years away,

Milijarde godina ranije i milijarde svetlosnih godina daleko,

the material at the center of a galaxy collapsed

materijal u središtu galaksije se urušio

prema super-masivnoj crnoj rupi.

towards a supermassive black hole.

And then intense magnetic fields directed some of the energy

I tada su magnetna polja usmerila deo energije tog gravitacionog kolapsa,

of that gravitational collapse

and some of the matter

i deo materije,

natrag napolje u obliku ogromnih mlazova

back out in the form of tremendous jets,

which illuminated lobes

koji su osvetlili režnjeve svetlošću jačine od - mislim trilion sunaca.

with the brilliance of -- I think it's a trillion -- suns.

Sada, fizika ljudskog mozga

Now, the physics of the human brain could hardly be more unlike

ne može biti različitija od fizike takvog mlaza.

the physics of such a jet.

We couldn't survive for an instant in it.

Ne bismo mogli preživeti ni tren u njemu.

Language breaks down when trying to describe

U jeziku ne postoje reči kada pokušamo da objasnimo

what it would be like in one of those jets.

kako bi bilo u takvom mlazu.

It would be a bit like experiencing a supernova explosion,

To bi bilo kao doživeti eksploziju supernove,

but at point-blank range and for millions of years at a time.

ali tik ispred nosa i milionima godina odjedanput.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And yet, that jet happened in precisely such a way

A pritom, taj mlaz se desio na takav način

that billions of years later, on the other side of the universe,

da milijardama godina kasnije,

na drugom kraju univerzuma,

some bit of chemical scum could accurately describe

nešto hemijskog otpada može da tačno opiše

and model and predict and explain, above all --

i modeluje, i predvidi, i iznad svega, objasni -

there's your reference --

uočite tu reč -

what was happening there, in reality.

šta se tamo zaista dešavalo.

The one physical system, the brain, contains an accurate working model

Jedan fizički sistem, mozak,

sadrži tačan radni model drugog - kvazara.

of the other, the quasar.

Not just a superficial image of it, though it contains that as well,

Ne samo površnu sliku njega, iako sadrži i nju,

but an explanatory model,

već objašnjavajući model,

embodying the same mathematical relationships

koji uključuje iste matematičke odnose i iste uzročne strukture.

and the same causal structure.

Now, that is knowledge.

E, to je znanje.

And if that weren't amazing enough,

I ako ovo nije bilo dovoljno zadivljujuće,

the faithfulness with which the one structure resembles the other

verodostojnost kojom jedna struktura podseća na drugu,

vremenom se povećava.

is increasing with time.

That is the growth of knowledge.

To je rast znanja.

So, the laws of physics have this special property,

Zakoni fizike, dakle, imaju ovo izuzetno svojstvo,

that physical objects as unlike each other as they could possibly be

da fizički objekti, različiti među sobom do krajnjih granica,

can, nevertheless, embody the same mathematical and causal structure

ipak mogu da otelotvoruju iste matematičke i uzročne strukture

and to do it more and more so over time.

i to sve više i više tokom vremena.

So we are a chemical scum that is different.

Mi smo hemijski otpad koji je različit.

This chemical scum has universality.

Ovaj hemijski otpad ima univerzalnost.

Its structure contains, with ever-increasing precision,

Njegova struktura sadrži, sa stalno sve većom preciznošću,

the structure of everything.

strukturu svega.

This place, and not other places in the universe,

Ovo mesto, a ne ostala mesta u univerzumu,

is a hub which contains within itself the structural and causal essence

glavna je tačka koja sadrži unutar sebe strukturnu i uzročnu suštinu

of the whole of the rest of physical reality.

čitavog ostatka fizičke realnosti.

And so, far from being insignificant,

I tako, daleko od toga da je beznačajna,

the fact that the laws of physics allow this

činjenica da zakoni fizike omogućavaju,

or even mandate that this can happen

ili čak obavezuju da se to može dešavati,

is one of the most important things about the physical world.

jedna je od najbitnijih stvari o fizičkom svetu.

Now, how does the solar system -- our environment, in the form of us --

E sada, kako sunčev sistem - i naše okruženje, u formi nas -

acquire this special relationship with the rest of the universe?

postiže ovu specijalnu vezu sa ostatkom univerzuma?

Well, one thing that's true about Stephen Hawking's remark --

Jedna stvar koja je tačna u vezi sa zapažanjem Stivena Hokinga -

I mean, it is true, but it's the wrong emphasis --

mislim, jeste tačno, ali je pogrešan naglasak -

one thing that's true about it is that it doesn't do it with any special physics,

jedna stvar koja je tačna u vezi sa tim je

da to nije postignuto nikakvom specijalnom fizikom.

there's no special dispensation, no miracles involved.

Nema namenskih izuzetaka, nema umešanih čuda.

It does it simply with three things that we have here in abundance.

To se postiže jednostavno pomoću tri stvari koje imamo ovde u izobilju.

One of them is matter,

Jedna od njih je materija,

because the growth of knowledge is a form of information processing.

jer rast znanja je oblik procesiranja informacija.

Information processing is computation, computation requires a computer,

Procesiranje informacija je računanje,

računanje zahteva računar -

and there's no known way of making a computer without matter.

a ne postoji poznati način da se napravi računar bez materije.

We also need energy to make the computer, and most important,

Takođe nam je potrebna i energija da bismo stvorili računar, i najvažnije,

to make the media, in effect, onto which we record

da bismo napravili medij na koji ćemo zabeležiti znanje koje otkrijemo.

the knowledge that we discover.

And then thirdly, less tangible but just as essential

I treće, manje opipljivo,

ali jednako fundamentalno za neograničeno stvaranje

for the open-ended creation of knowledge, of explanations,

znanja i objašnjenja, je dokazni materijal.

is evidence.

Now, our environment is inundated with evidence.

Naše okruženje je preplavljeno dokaznim materijalom, primerima.

We happened to get round to testing, let's say, Newton's law of gravity,

Desilo se da smo odlučili da testiramo recimo, Njutnovu teoriju gravitacije -

pre oko 300 godina.

about 300 years ago.

But the evidence that we used to do that

Ali dokazni materijal koji smo koristili u tu svrhu

was falling down on every square meter of the Earth

pada dole na svaki kvadratni metar Zemlje milijardama godina unazad,

for billions of years before that,

and we'll continue to fall for billions of years afterwards.

i nastaviće da pada još milijardama godina ubuduće.

And the same is true for all the other sciences.

I ista je istina za sve ostale nauke.

As far as we know,

Koliko nam je poznato,

dokazni materijal za otkrivanje najfundamentalnijih istina u svim naukama

evidence to discover the most fundamental truths of all the sciences

is here just for the taking, on our planet.

je lako dostupan ovde, na našoj planeti.

Our location is saturated with evidence

Naša lokacija je prepuna dokaznog materijala,

and also with matter and energy.

a takođe i materije i energije.

Out in intergalactic space,

Tamo u međugalaktičkom prostoru,

those three prerequisites for the open-ended creation of knowledge

ova tri preduslova za neograničeno stvaranje znanja

are at their lowest possible supply --

su u najnižoj mogućoj raspoloživosti.

as I said, it's empty, it's cold and it's dark out there.

Kao što sam rekao, tamo je prazno i hladno i mračno.

Or is it?

Ili nije?

Now actually, that's just another parochial misconception.

Zapravo, to je samo još jedna parohijalna zabluda.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Because imagine a cube out there in intergalactic space,

Jer zamislite kocku tamo negde u međugalaktičkom prostoru,

the same size as our home, the solar system.

iste veličine kao naš dom, sunčev sistem.

Now, that cube is very empty by human standards,

Ta kocka je vrlo prazna po ljudskim standardima,

but that still means that it contains over a million tons of matter.

ali to i dalje znači da ona sadrži preko milion tona materije.

And a million tons is enough to make, say, a self-contained space station,

A milion tona je dovoljno da se napravi, recimo, samoodrživa svemirska stanica,

on which there's a colony of scientists

na kojoj se nalazi kolonija naučnika koji su posvećeni kreiranju

that are devoted to creating an open-ended stream of knowledge, and so on.

neograničenog toka znanja, i tako dalje.

Now, it's way beyond present technology

Naravno, daleko je iznad sadašnje tehnologije

to even gather the hydrogen from intergalactic space

čak i da se sakupi vodonik iz međugalaktičkog prostora

and form it into other elements and so on.

i iz njega formiraju drugi elementi i tako redom.

Ali stvar je u tome što, u razumljivom univerzumu,

But the thing is, in a comprehensible universe,

if something isn't forbidden by the laws of physics,

ako nešto nije zabranjeno zakonima fizike,

then what could possibly prevent us from doing it, other than knowing how?

šta nas to može sprečiti da uradimo nešto, osim neznanja kako?

In other words, it's a matter of knowledge, not resources.

Drugim rečima, to je stvar znanja, ne resursa.

If we could do that, we'd automatically have an energy supply,

Ako bismo mogli to da uradimo,

mi bismo automatski imali izvor energije,

because this transmutation would be a fusion reactor.

jer bi ova transmutacija bila fuzioni reaktor.

And evidence?

A dokazni materijal?

Well, again, it's dark out there to human senses,

Pa, opet, mračno je tamo za ljudska čula.

but all you've got to do is take a telescope,

Ali sve što treba da se uradi je da se uzme teleskop,

even one of present-day design,

čak neki današnjeg dizajna,

look out, and you'll see the same galaxies as we do from here.

da se pogleda gore i videćete iste galaksije kao što se vide i odavde.

And with a more powerful telescope,

A sa moćnijim teleskopom,

you'll be able to see stars and planets in those galaxies,

bićete u mogućnosti da vidite zvezde i planete u tim galaksijama,

you'll be able to do astrophysics and learn the laws of physics.

bićete u mogućnosti da radite astrofiziku

i da učite zakone fizike.

And locally there, you could build particle accelerators

I lokalno tamo, mogli biste izgraditi akcelerator čestica

and learn elementary particle physics and chemistry, and so on.

i učiti fiziku elementarnih čestica, hemiju, i tako dalje.

Probably the hardest science to do would be biology field trips --

Verovatno bi bilo najteže izvesti terenske izlete iz biologije,

(Laughter)

jer bi bilo potrebno nekoliko stotina miliona godina

because it would take several hundred million years

to get to the nearest life-bearing planet and back.

da se dođe do najbliže planete sa životom i nazad.

But I have to tell you -- and sorry, Richard --

Ali moram vam reći - izvini Ričarde -

but I never did like biology field trips much --

nikada nisam mnogo voleo terenske izlete iz biologije

(Laughter)

i mislim da bi nam po jedan u nekoliko stotina miliona godina

and I think we can just about make do

bio sasvim dovoljan.

with one every few hundred million years.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So, in fact, intergalactic space does contain all the prerequisites

Tako zapravo, međugalaktički prostor

sadrži sve preduslove za neograničeno stvaranje znanja.

for the open-ended creation of knowledge.

Any such cube anywhere in the universe

Bilo koja takva kocka, negde u univerzumu,

could become the same kind of hub that we are,

bi mogla postati ista vrsta središta kakvo je naše,

if the knowledge of how to do so were present there.

ukoliko bi znanje o tome kako se to radi bilo prisutno tamo.

So, we're not in a uniquely hospitable place.

Tako da mi nismo na jedinstveno gostoprimljivom mestu.

If intergalactic space is capable of creating

Ako je međugalaktički prostor sposoban

an open-ended stream of explanations,

za kreiranje neograničenog toka objašnjenja,

then so is almost every other environment,

onda je i skoro svaka druga sredina.

so is the Earth.

Tako i Zemlja. Tako i zagađena Zemlja.

So is a polluted Earth.

And the limiting factor, there and here,

A ograničavajući faktor, i ovde i tamo, nisu resursi, jer ih je mnoštvo,

is not resources -- because they're plentiful --

but knowledge, which is scarce.

već znanje, koga je malo.

Now, this cosmic knowledge-based view may -- and, I think, ought to --

E sada, ovo gledište na kosmos, bazirano na znanju, može,

a ja mislim i trebalo bi -

make us feel very special.

da učini da se osećamo veoma posebnim.

Ali takođe treba da učini da se osećamo i ranjivim,

But it should also make us feel vulnerable,

because it means that without the specific knowledge

jer to znači da bez konkretnog znanja neophodnog da bi se preživeli

that's needed to survive the ongoing challenges of the universe,

izazovi koji se stalno dešavaju u univerzumu, nećemo ih preživeti.

we won't survive them.

All it takes is for a supernova to go off a few light-years away,

Sve što je potrebno

jeste da jedna supernova eksplodira nekoliko svetlosnih godina daleko,

and we'll all be dead!

i svi ćemo biti mrtvi!

Martin Rees has recently written a book

Martin Ris je nedavno napisao knjigu o našoj ranjivosti na svakakve stvari,

about our vulnerability to all sorts of things,

from astrophysics, to scientific experiments gone wrong,

od astrofizike, do toga da naučni eksperimenti pođu naopako,

and most importantly, to terrorism with weapons of mass destruction.

i što je najvažnije na terorizam sa oružjem za masovno uništenje.

And he thinks that civilization has only a 50 percent chance

I on misli da civilizacija ima svega 50 posto šanse da preživi ovaj vek.

of surviving this century.

I think he's going to talk about that later in the conference.

Mislim da će pričati o ovome kasnije na konferenciji.

Now, I don't think that probability is the right category

Ne mislim da je verovatnoća prava kategorija

to discuss this issue in,

u kojoj bi pričali o ovoj temi.

but I do agree with him about this:

Ali se slažem sa njim u ovome:

we can survive and we can fail to survive.

moguće je i da preživimo i da ne preživimo.

But it depends, not on chance,

Ali to ne zavisi od verovatnoće,

but on whether we create the relevant knowledge in time.

već od toga da li ćemo na vreme stvoriti relevantno znanje.

Opasnost uopšte nije bez presedana.

The danger is not at all unprecedented.

Species go extinct all the time.

Vrste stalno bivaju istrebljivane.

Civilizations end.

Civilizacije se završavaju.

The overwhelming majority of all species and all civilizations

Ogromna većina svih vrsta i civilizacija

that have ever existed

koje su ikada postojale su sada istorija.

are now history.

And if we want to be the exception to that,

I ukoliko želimo da budemo izuzetak, logično, naša jedina nada

then logically, our only hope is to make use of the one feature

je da upotrebimo jednu stvar koja izdvaja našu vrstu,

that distinguishes our species and civilization from all the others,

i našu civilizaciju od svih drugih.

namely, our special relationship with the laws of physics,

A to je naša specijalna veza sa zakonima fizike.

our ability to create new explanations, new knowledge --

Naša sposobnost da stvaramo nova objašnjenja, nova znanja -

to be a hub of existence.

da smo središte postojanja.

So let me now apply this to a current controversy,

I dozvolite mi sada da ovo primenim na trenutnu kontroverzu,

not because I want to advocate any particular solution,

ne zato da bih zastupao neko konkretno rešenje,

but just to illustrate the kind of thing I mean.

već samo da ilustrujem vrstu stvari na koju mislim.

And the controversy is global warming.

Kontroverza je globalno zagrejavanje.

Now, I'm a physicist, but I'm not the right kind of physicist.

Ja sam fizičar, ali nisam prava vrsta fizičara.

In regard to global warming, I'm just a layman.

U odnosu na globalno zagrevanje, ja sam samo laik.

And the rational thing for a layman to do

I racionalna stvar koju laik može da uradi je da shvati ozbiljno

is to take seriously the prevailing scientific theory.

preovlađujuću naučnu teoriju.

And according to that theory, it's already too late to avoid a disaster,

A po toj teoriji,

već je prekasno da se izbegne katastrofa.

because, if it's true that our best option at the moment is to prevent CO2 emissions

Jer ukoliko je tačno da nam je najbolja opcija u ovom trenutku

da sprečimo emisije CO2 nečim kao što je Kjoto Protokol,

with something like the Kyoto Protocol,

with its constraints on economic activity and its enormous cost

sa svojim ograničenjima na ekonomske aktivnosti

i sa svim enormnim troškovima od stotina milijardi dolara

of hundreds of billions of dollars, or whatever it is,

ili već koliko,

onda je to već katastrofa po svim razumnim merilima.

then that is already a disaster by any reasonable measure.

And the actions that are advocated are not even purported to solve the problem,

A akcije koje se predlažu nisu čak ni usmerene da se problem reši,

merely to postpone it by a little.

već samo da ga odlože na kratko.

So it's already too late to avoid it,

Dakle, već je prekasno da bi se izbegao,

and it probably has been too late to avoid it

i verovatno je bilo prekasno da se izbegne

ever since before anyone realized the danger.

još davno pre nego što je iko i prepoznao i shvatio opasnost.

It was probably already too late in the 1970s,

Verovatno je bilo prekasno i 1970-ih,

when the best available scientific theory was telling us

kada nam je najbolja dostupna naučna teorija govorila

that industrial emissions were about to precipitate a new ice age,

da će industrijske emisije ubrzo doneti novo ledeno doba

in which billions would die.

u kome će milijarde umreti.

Now, the lesson of that seems clear to me,

Lekcija mi se čini očiglednom,

and I don't know why it isn't informing public debate.

i ne znam zašto ne utiče na javnu debatu.

It is that we can't always know.

Lekcija je da ne možemo uvek znati.

When we know of an impending disaster

Kada znamo za predstojeću katastrofu,

and how to solve it at a cost less than the cost of the disaster itself,

i kako da je rešimo po ceni manjoj od cene same katastrofe,

then there's not going to be much argument, really.

onda i neće biti neke velike polemike.

But no precautions and no precautionary principle

Ali nikakav oprez i nikakav princip predostrožnosti,

can avoid problems that we do not yet foresee.

ne mogu izbeći probleme koje još nismo predvideli.

Hence, we need a stance of problem-fixing,

Stoga nam je potreban stav okrenut rešavanju problema,

not just problem-avoidance.

ne samo izbegavanju problema.

And it's true that an ounce of prevention equals a pound of cure,

I tačno je da je bolje sprečiti nego lečiti

ali isto važi samo ako znamo šta da sprečimo.

but that's only if we know what to prevent.

If you've been punched on the nose,

Ako ste primili udarac u nos,

then the science of medicine does not consist of

medicinska nauka se ne sastoji

teaching you how to avoid punches.

od podučavanja kako da izbegnete udarce.

(Laughter)

If medical science stopped seeking cures and concentrated on prevention only,

Ako bi medicinska nauka prestala sa traženjem lekova

i skoncentrisala se samo na prevenciju,

then it would achieve very little of either.

onda bi postigla jako malo od oboje.

The world is buzzing at the moment

Svet je trenutno prepun planova da se prinudno smanje

with plans to force reductions in gas emissions at all costs.

emisije gasova po svaku cenu.

It ought to be buzzing with plans to reduce the temperature

Trebalo bi da je prepun planova da se smanji temperatura

and with plans to live at the higher temperature --

i planova da se živi pod većom temperaturom.

and not at all costs, but efficiently and cheaply.

I ne po svaku cenu, već efikasno i jeftino.

And some such plans exist,

I neki takvi planovi postoje,

things like swarms of mirrors in space to deflect the sunlight away

stvari kao što su sistemi ogledala u svemiru koji odbijaju sunčevu svetlost,

and encouraging aquatic organisms to eat more carbon dioxide.

i ohrabrivanje vodenih organizama da jedu više ugljen dioksida.

At the moment, these things are fringe research;

U ovom trenutku, ove stvari su sporedna, periferna istraživanja.

they're not central to the human effort to face this problem

One nisu centralne u ljudskim nastojanjima da se suoče sa ovim problemom,

or problems in general.

ili problemima uopšteno.

And with problems that we are not aware of yet,

A sa problemima kojih još nismo svesni, sposobnost da ispravimo -

the ability to put right -- not the sheer good luck of avoiding indefinitely --

a ne čista sreća da ih izbegnemo na neodređeno vreme -

is our only hope, not just of solving problems,

naša je jedina nada,

ne samo za rešenje problema, već za opstanak.

but of survival.

So, take two stone tablets

Uzmite dve kamene ploče i ugravirajte ih.

and carve on them.

On one of them, carve:

Na jednoj izrezbarite "Problemi su rešivi."

"Problems are soluble."

And on the other one, carve:

A na drugoj "Problemi su neizbežni."

"Problems are inevitable."

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)